04 June 2018

Orioles Draft Targets 1:37(37)

Earlier today, I released this year's Collegiate Regression Analysis Projection (CRAP) models and some thoughts on the Orioles first selection.  My general perspective would be for the Orioles to seek out positional talent early on in the draft.  If desirable talent is available there, I think positional talent is easier to translate to further worth and easier to develop.  It also somewhat dictates a move to look toward arms later in the draft.

That said, I think you still look for value.  For instance, I would have interest in players who still appear to be 50+ value prospects by the CRAP model.  Media rankings put potentially available players to be Griffin Conine (who I mentioned in the previous piece and who I think is worth a 1:11 selction), Steele Walker, and Nico Hoerner.

Steele Walker, LF
CRAP: 50/55
Walker is a bat first guy without a great deal of power to go along with that bat.  He is likely the guy everyone would call gritty.  That said, he does all the little things on the field to improve his outcomes, which then really plays up his advanced bat at the plate.  He is a smart player who plays solid defense, but with an arm that will slide him to left field.

Nico Hoerner, 2B
CRAP: 50/55
Second basemen tend to be a tricky position to target because if they cannot defensively handle secondbase, then where else can their bat really play.  For Hoerner, he is an offense first second baseman with great gap power and a solid showing in wood bat leagues.  Those attributes impress the CRAP model and impress me.  A plus speed guy with great doubles power, that might even play in the outfield if it falls apart on the dirt.

Will Banfield, C
Brookwood HS
Banfield might be a couple years away from being a Joey Bart.  He is a solid defender with a rocket arm.  He has trouble with his offense, but has light tower power.  As a catcher, just a little bit of that power is needed to translate into a solid pro.  All else fails, he might be able to be converted into a middle relief role although he has not developed that at all.

Ethan Hankins, RHP
Forsyth Central HS
Hankins is regarded as a backend first round talent, which is based on the kind of pitcher he was.  Last year, he toyed with 100 mph with an excellent changeup.  He sort of fits the Gausman role.  However, he has been injured and has yet to return to the velocity he was producing last year.  If healthy, he might have been a top 10 talent, but that did not happen.  If somehow he dropped to 35, I think he would be a boon for the Orioles.

No comments: