Baseball drafts tend to be difficult to assess because we tend to completely ignore amateur baseball and it is a challenge to project how a player will develop over the years it takes for them to be prepared for Major League level performance. Often, people who follow one of the other sports, like football or baseball, get irritated when one makes this observation, but baseball is a sport that requires a rather prolonged developmental period. You can find immediate contributors in those other sports, but, outside of the rare college pitcher with two plus plus pitches, no baseball draftee is ready to step into a big league box.
So post-draft, you get a swell of draft report cards and evaluations that mean very little. Taking Grayson Rodriguez with the first pick, even though he was pretty far down the rankings devised by baseball scouting media sites, means very little. Those rankings are created through a mix of writers knowing a few scouts and what they think plus their own direct and indirect observations. Those rankings do not reflect any organization rankings and you see quite a difference between those and the real thing. Some think that by showing the variance between the scouting site rankings will indicate the actual variance in the real scouting world. It doesn't. In the media world, you have an echo chamber effect, which increases likelihood of inadvertent copying, and you have the reality that the variance of averages is not the same as the variance of the actual data.
So, if your argument is ranking based, then you probably have a fairly weak argument. Slightly stronger than that, we have more of a philosophical argument in terms of team approaches to drafts. Before Dan Duquette and Gary Rajsich came on board, the Orioles under Andy MacPhail and Joe Jordan mainly were on the lookout for athletic players with great makeup as well as injured players. That perspective has changed. The club now tends to look at pitchers with a good fastball and slider mix and a professional ("quick to plate") approach to pitching. Positional players tend to be evaluated bat first, except for middle infield college gloves. An aspect of their strategy with college gloves at shortstop is to find players who can defensively keep the rhythm of the game. Keep the flow, which helps prevent innings that implode from deflating defense.
The club pretty much kept with that concept in 2018. The went for pitchers with intriguing fastballs that moved as well as established or promising sliders. Folks were surprised by Grayson Rodriguez. He was considered a second day pick last Spring, but improved his conditioning and overall training. That resulted him rocketing up the boards. He wound up around mid-20s at the beginning of May, but then trended backwards. Typically, it seems that players with helium tend to move backwards before publications issue their last ranking list as evaluators begin to focus on negative aspects of these kind of players a bit more. Anyway, Rodriguez made sense where he was selected and was certainly a name some were actually pegging a few selections earlier than the Orioles.
Blaine Knight is another player who fits the mold. He was knocked a bit for his thin body type. There are concerns about his long term health and his college program insisted that he not play summer ball and instead work on developed size. He did not develop any size. Regardless, he has a great two pitch mix and could emerge as an elite backend bullpen arm. J.J. Montgomery, Ryan Conroy, Kevin McGee, and Dallas Litscher to a lesser degree fit with this bucket.
On the pitchers with upside, you have lefty Drew Rom. Some expected him to go to the college ranks and mature, but for the Orioles to select him here, you would think they full well intend to sign him. He lives in the 90s, but has a good feel with his secondary pitches. He flashes some mid-90s heat (rarely) and has some room for projection with the hope that the velocity emerges. Yeancarlos Lleras is another player who has flashed mid-90s heat and is thought to have more projection. The organization claims he has a secondary pitch, but my sources indicate that he really only has used his fastball without any need to explore other pitches.
Cadyn Grenier, in the second, and Cody Roberts, in the eleventh, are typical Orioles solid defense up the middle selections. Grenier is an excellent college shortstop whose swing needs to be reconfigured, which is not exactly something the Orioles seem to do well. Their batting perspective tends to be to encourage guys to be aggressive as opposed to a significant mechanical overhaul. I am told those sort of things wind up on the player themselves to figure out. Anyway, he will at the very least settle down the infields he appears on and help pitchers focus on their own development. He may well arrive in the Majors as a cup of coffee defensive replacement in a few years. Meanwhile, Roberts, is an excellent catcher who should provide stopping power at the plate, defensively. Offensively, it will be a struggle to see him get any significant time above Delmarva. We shall see.
Robert Neustrom was a selection in the fifth round, which was a bat first selection. He has power and he showed off his bat on the Cape, so that certainly helps. His defense is suspect and so is his arm, so he probably slots into left field as opposed to his announced right field. Anyway, it seems the take with him will be to push him like they did with Austin Hays. Tell him to go out there and dominate, be aggressive. It kind of worked for Hays, for a bit. Maybe it will work with Neustrom.
Each year, I follow the Orioles selections and come up with my own picks. I often have one or two selections that the Orioles also make, but they went well off the established lists by the main scouting media services. That meant that when I developed my own lists and asked questions about players, I simply did not think about asking about those guys. I am unsure whether I would have drafted them, but my philosophy is similar to what the Orioles do.
However, I tend to go more toward low variance production up top and also utilize predictive models. That led me to someone like Brady Singer who seems like his ceiling is less of that of Rodriguez, but is more of a certainty is producing MLB value. Jake McCarthy, a college true center fielder, is an up the middle player whose bat seems far more accessible with wooden bats than what Grenier has to offer. Beyond those guys, I went with middle infield and power arms. Nico Decalati was a deviation, but I was surprised to see someone like that available in the sixth with such a loud bat. Anyway, here were my preferences.
Shadow Draft
1. Brady Singer, RHP
Florida
Singer is a more baked version of Rodriguez, but with less upside. Signer looks to be a strong mid-rotation ceiling arm with a fastball/slider mix. Rodriguez may have better mechanics and upside to his pitches, but Singer already has a useful changeup which cements him as a more certain starting pitching prospect.
1s. Jake McCarthy, CF
Virginia
Great range and a good enough arm for centerfield. Plus speed, a good approach at the plate, and hard contact in wood leagues. His stock dropped a bit with injuries, but I think his long term outlook is very solid.
3. Mike Siani, CF
William Penn Charter (HS)
Siani has fringe plus speed, some power, and a strong arm. He fits more of the Adam Jones style of center fielder. It may seem strange to see me draft two centerfielders in a row, but they should have different developmental time frames (i.e., high school versus college) and Siani's issues with contact make for a potentially slower development. One positive as a floor for Siani is that he has shown some aptitude as a southpaw, so he could be tried out as a lefty bullpen arm if it all fell apart.
4. Nick Dunn, 2B
Maryland
Dunn is a contact oriented bat with good gap power. He has shown aptitude in wood bat leagues, which makes his offensive performance in college look a tad bit better. The concern is whether he can stay at second base because his profile looks a lot less interesting away from there.
5. Matt Mercer, RHP
Oregon
Mercer has a good fastball that sometimes gets up into the high 90s. However, as a starter it looks to be more of a low 90s pitch. He also has established secondaries, but none of them look to be all that great at a MLB level. I see him as a hard throwing reliever, but would let him start until that path looks done.
6. Niko Decalati, 3B
Loyola Marymount
Decalati has outstanding light tower power. He gets a lot of hard contact. However, he does not get much contact and the concern on him is that a shift to a more contact oriented approach would undermine his power. That said, he is athletic and looks to be able to play third base professionally or right field, if needed.
7. Joey Gerber, RHP
Illinois
Gerber shows a mid-to-high 90s fastball and whispers of a decent slider. That looks good to me in the seventh round.
8. Bryce Montes de Oca, RHP
Missouri
Montes de Oca can throw 100 mph and has a decent slider that should play as average. He also was used sparingly the last half of the college season which provides concern when paired with several arm surgeries from his past. That said, 100 mph.
9. Hunter Feduccia, C
LSU
Lefty catcher, which may have some platoon value. Strong footwork behind the plate and a good approach at the plate. No power to speak of.
10. Jason Bilous, RHP
Coastal Carolina
Bilous wound up not going until past the 10th round, which probably means he is going back to school. Last summer, he glanced 100 mph and has a solid slider. He has also shown feel for a changeup. That all said, it sounds better than it is as he has had terrible trouble with control and command.
Showing posts with label 2018 MLB Draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2018 MLB Draft. Show all posts
14 June 2018
12 June 2018
Looking For A New Baltimore Orioles Podcast?
Hello, fellow watcher of bad Baltimore Orioles baseball. There is no way you could have stumbled upon this blog post without being a little bit loopy, right? This team is tough to watch every night, and yet you came here to endure even more. Impressive. You are among friends, and we have a special treat in store for your dedication.
My name is Tyler Young. If you are a frequent visitor to Camden Chat, you may be familiar with some of my "work". I'm a staff writer at CC, and have been since 2014. This year, because I'm a crazy person, I decided to take on a new challenge: a podcast.
Starting back on the eve of Opening Day, I launched a weekly Orioles podcast with two of my buddies, Jesse and Marcus, called The Warehouse. In general, it is an hour-long radio show where the three of us discuss the latest news in Birdland and try to have a little fun while doing so. Please note: we are marked "explicit" on iTunes but this is not a raunchy experience. We said the "s-word" one time! I SWEAR! I mean, I don't swear. You know what I mean. We are family-friendly!
Last week, the Depot got in touch to ask if we would be interested in posting the podcast here every Tuesday morning and using the website as a portal for regular Depot readers to access our show. I have been a huge fan of the site for years and jumped at the chance. It truly is an honor to be brought into the community as a regular contributor.
Each week, the show will be embedded here, but don't forget to subscribe wherever it is that you get your podcasts, including iTunes/Apple Podcasts, Google Play, Stitcher, Podbean and TuneIn. Or you can watch the podcast on YouTube! You can also follow the podcast on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram or send the show an email: TheWarehousePod@gmail.com.
On this week's episode, Jesse and I talk about Chris Davis' continued demise, #HugWatch2K18, the O's draft, Luke Heimlich, the rise of Ryan McKenna and Jesse's inability to use technology.
Thanks for the support!
05 June 2018
Tuesday Morning Scouting Director
Yesterday, the Orioles selected Grayson Rodriguez, a right handed prep pitcher out of Texas, and Cadyn Grenier, a shortstop out of Oregon State who will be destined to have his name spelled incorrectly for the entirety of his Baltimore Oriole franchise career.
Rodriguez was a more typical Orioles pick under the Duquette regime. Big body with a professional delivery that is quick to the plate. This leaves a lot less for the developmental staff to figure out. He also checks another Orioles box in that he has a lively two seamer that pairs nicely with a slider. The Orioles have been focusing a great deal on pitchers with good two seam / slider interplay. Rodriguez was pretty far back on a lot of boards and that is largely due to a rather unspectacular career prior to this season. Supposedly, he began to take training seriously and that focus immediately brought results. He came into the draft with a whole lot of steam where he was often overlooked in pre-season rankings and then darted up as the spring season wore on, resting in the 20-40 range. Some might compare this to being similar to the Matt Hobgood selection and, to be honest, there are reasonable comparisons here. That said, this was not the fourth overall selection.
Grenier is a slight deviation from the Orioles past selections. The Orioles have recently taken pretty toolsy players at this point in the draft and then later on draft caretaker mold middle infields to help settle down minor league infield defenses. Grenier is not a caretaker. He is a genuine prospect with excellent defense, above average speed, and a quick bat. The knock on him is that his swing is terrible and seems to be based on slapping the ball for his legs to win a base. Those lose are not impressive at a MLB level and he needs to do more to show that he has some gap power to his bat. As is, he should be a strong mainstay at every level of the minor he spends time at, but for him to make a difference at the MLB level, that swing will need to be broken down and built back up again.
All in all, I think those picks are defensible. Those are wanted players, desirable players, but I preferred something else. As always I run a shadow draft to see my long term inclinations against what the professionals do. My prospect system has been quite a remarkable group, beating out what the Orioles have done by quite a bit...until you add in our pass on Manny Machado. Oops. Anyway, where would I have gone?
For me, the first round broke down in mixed fashion. Griffin Conine was there, but my preferred pick, Jonathan India, was snagged by the Mets several picks earlier. That said, two players I had not considered were there. Matthew Liberatore, a LH HS pitcher who many thought was the best high school arm in the draft, and Brady Singer, a RH pitcher from Florida who was considered the second best college arm.
Liberatore is intriguing because he knows how to pitch and was able to dominate in showcases and the national team with that polish. The downside is that he sits around 90 mph, which will get it done basically everywhere outside of the Majors. Maybe I am a bit gun shy due to Brian Matusz, but I think while Libratore has a little projection left in his frame that the workload of a professional will keep that velocity down.
Singer is what I would say Rodriguez might have looked like in three years except that Singer has a low delivery that was a red flag for many teams. That said, he throws mid-90s. Has an average secondary arsenal. He looks like a fast tracked mid rotation arm. He looks like a very safe pick and one whose stuff could play at Camden Yards. I think in the grand scheme of things, he is a prospect who could be rising up around the same time as the Orioles next big wave of prospects might show up around 2020 (including the ones they get from the inevitable trades this summer).
With that in mind, I would have chosen Brady Singer. He may not have that star profile, but he looks like a contributor to me and someone who will find usefulness for the big league club quickly. The Orioles need holes to fill and I think he could do that both cheaply and quickly.
For that second pick, I would have gone with Griffin Conine before I say a piece by 2080 Baseball that mentioned Jake McCarthy as an option for the Orioles here. I put him through the CRAP model and was surprised how much it actually liked him. McCarthy grades as a 55/60 according to CRAP and appears to be solid as a center fielder. That kind of up the middle talent is hard for me to pass on. As much as I adore Griffin Conine's bat and think he is a first round talent, I think moreso slightly with McCarthy.
Now for Day Two where the clubs will be seeking out players from Rounds three to ten. What to expect?
The Orioles will likely take a couple upside high school players who we really have no idea who they are targeting until it happens. At the college level, we know they already secured a shortstop. We should expect a catcher somewhere and a heavy focus on college pitchers with live two seamers. Some possibilities:
Steven Gingery, LHP
Texas Tech
High 80s pitcher with a sinker that flashes plus.
Expected to go Rounds 3-5
Aaron Hernandez, RHP
Texas A&M Corpus Christi
Hits upper 90s with his sinker, but has some makeup concerns.
Expected to go Rounds 4-5
Dylan Coleman, RHP
Missouri State
One pitch, a mid to upper 90s sinker. Poor mechanics.
Expected to go Rounds 3-5
Sean Wymer, RHP
TCU
Low 90s plus sinker, mixes well.
Expected to go Rounds 3-4.
Adam Wolf, LHP
Louisville
Low 90s sinker, works it well around the plate.
Expected to go Rounds 5-7
Jason Bilous, RHP
Coastal Carolina
Low 90s sinker that flashed mid-90 at times.
Expected to go Rounds 5-7
Who I would target? Live arms. But first, Jake Mangum. CRAP considers his bat to be worth a 45/50 designation, but he also has a fall back option for pitching. I like that. Anyway, here are the live arms.
Blaine Knight, RHP
Arkansas
A bean pole pitcher with durability concerns. Regularly touches upper 90s.
Expected to go in rounds 3 to 4.
Durbin Feltman, RHP
TCU
Short pitcher who flirts with 100. Seen as a reliever, but may be tested as a starter.
Rounds 3 to 5.
Zack Hess, RHP
LSU
Early college career he was a reliever whose stuff played up to high 90s with a plus slider.
Rounds 3 to 5.
Isaiah Campbell, RHP
Arkansas
Injury history, but with a fastball that reaches upper 90s in relief.
Rounds 4 to 6
Bryce Montes de Oca, RHP
Missouri
The 100 mph fastball white whale. Stuff is a little all over the place.
Rounds 5 to 7
Ryan Feltner, RHP
Ohio State
Upper 90s fastball, nothing moves.
Rounds 6 to 8
Rodriguez was a more typical Orioles pick under the Duquette regime. Big body with a professional delivery that is quick to the plate. This leaves a lot less for the developmental staff to figure out. He also checks another Orioles box in that he has a lively two seamer that pairs nicely with a slider. The Orioles have been focusing a great deal on pitchers with good two seam / slider interplay. Rodriguez was pretty far back on a lot of boards and that is largely due to a rather unspectacular career prior to this season. Supposedly, he began to take training seriously and that focus immediately brought results. He came into the draft with a whole lot of steam where he was often overlooked in pre-season rankings and then darted up as the spring season wore on, resting in the 20-40 range. Some might compare this to being similar to the Matt Hobgood selection and, to be honest, there are reasonable comparisons here. That said, this was not the fourth overall selection.
Grenier is a slight deviation from the Orioles past selections. The Orioles have recently taken pretty toolsy players at this point in the draft and then later on draft caretaker mold middle infields to help settle down minor league infield defenses. Grenier is not a caretaker. He is a genuine prospect with excellent defense, above average speed, and a quick bat. The knock on him is that his swing is terrible and seems to be based on slapping the ball for his legs to win a base. Those lose are not impressive at a MLB level and he needs to do more to show that he has some gap power to his bat. As is, he should be a strong mainstay at every level of the minor he spends time at, but for him to make a difference at the MLB level, that swing will need to be broken down and built back up again.
All in all, I think those picks are defensible. Those are wanted players, desirable players, but I preferred something else. As always I run a shadow draft to see my long term inclinations against what the professionals do. My prospect system has been quite a remarkable group, beating out what the Orioles have done by quite a bit...until you add in our pass on Manny Machado. Oops. Anyway, where would I have gone?
For me, the first round broke down in mixed fashion. Griffin Conine was there, but my preferred pick, Jonathan India, was snagged by the Mets several picks earlier. That said, two players I had not considered were there. Matthew Liberatore, a LH HS pitcher who many thought was the best high school arm in the draft, and Brady Singer, a RH pitcher from Florida who was considered the second best college arm.
Liberatore is intriguing because he knows how to pitch and was able to dominate in showcases and the national team with that polish. The downside is that he sits around 90 mph, which will get it done basically everywhere outside of the Majors. Maybe I am a bit gun shy due to Brian Matusz, but I think while Libratore has a little projection left in his frame that the workload of a professional will keep that velocity down.
Singer is what I would say Rodriguez might have looked like in three years except that Singer has a low delivery that was a red flag for many teams. That said, he throws mid-90s. Has an average secondary arsenal. He looks like a fast tracked mid rotation arm. He looks like a very safe pick and one whose stuff could play at Camden Yards. I think in the grand scheme of things, he is a prospect who could be rising up around the same time as the Orioles next big wave of prospects might show up around 2020 (including the ones they get from the inevitable trades this summer).
With that in mind, I would have chosen Brady Singer. He may not have that star profile, but he looks like a contributor to me and someone who will find usefulness for the big league club quickly. The Orioles need holes to fill and I think he could do that both cheaply and quickly.
For that second pick, I would have gone with Griffin Conine before I say a piece by 2080 Baseball that mentioned Jake McCarthy as an option for the Orioles here. I put him through the CRAP model and was surprised how much it actually liked him. McCarthy grades as a 55/60 according to CRAP and appears to be solid as a center fielder. That kind of up the middle talent is hard for me to pass on. As much as I adore Griffin Conine's bat and think he is a first round talent, I think moreso slightly with McCarthy.
Now for Day Two where the clubs will be seeking out players from Rounds three to ten. What to expect?
The Orioles will likely take a couple upside high school players who we really have no idea who they are targeting until it happens. At the college level, we know they already secured a shortstop. We should expect a catcher somewhere and a heavy focus on college pitchers with live two seamers. Some possibilities:
Steven Gingery, LHP
Texas Tech
High 80s pitcher with a sinker that flashes plus.
Expected to go Rounds 3-5
Aaron Hernandez, RHP
Texas A&M Corpus Christi
Hits upper 90s with his sinker, but has some makeup concerns.
Expected to go Rounds 4-5
Dylan Coleman, RHP
Missouri State
One pitch, a mid to upper 90s sinker. Poor mechanics.
Expected to go Rounds 3-5
Sean Wymer, RHP
TCU
Low 90s plus sinker, mixes well.
Expected to go Rounds 3-4.
Adam Wolf, LHP
Louisville
Low 90s sinker, works it well around the plate.
Expected to go Rounds 5-7
Jason Bilous, RHP
Coastal Carolina
Low 90s sinker that flashed mid-90 at times.
Expected to go Rounds 5-7
Who I would target? Live arms. But first, Jake Mangum. CRAP considers his bat to be worth a 45/50 designation, but he also has a fall back option for pitching. I like that. Anyway, here are the live arms.
Blaine Knight, RHP
Arkansas
A bean pole pitcher with durability concerns. Regularly touches upper 90s.
Expected to go in rounds 3 to 4.
Durbin Feltman, RHP
TCU
Short pitcher who flirts with 100. Seen as a reliever, but may be tested as a starter.
Rounds 3 to 5.
Zack Hess, RHP
LSU
Early college career he was a reliever whose stuff played up to high 90s with a plus slider.
Rounds 3 to 5.
Isaiah Campbell, RHP
Arkansas
Injury history, but with a fastball that reaches upper 90s in relief.
Rounds 4 to 6
Bryce Montes de Oca, RHP
Missouri
The 100 mph fastball white whale. Stuff is a little all over the place.
Rounds 5 to 7
Ryan Feltner, RHP
Ohio State
Upper 90s fastball, nothing moves.
Rounds 6 to 8
04 June 2018
Orioles Draft Targets 2:11 (52)
This is the final post of the day and will cover the Orioles final selection of the first night of the draft. Based on the MLB pipeline rankings, two players may be around who I have already discussed. Griffin Conine has a 50 ranking on him whereas I think he is a fringe top 10 prospect based on the CRAP model I release today. Second, Nico Hoerner is noted as a 52 ranking where I see him, based on the CRAP, as more of a late 20s value. In addition to those guys, I have a few more to target for this second round selection.
Joe Gray, Jr., OF
Hattiesburg HS
Gray has some loud tools, but seems to have trouble showing them at times. He does not control the strike zone well even though he has a very quick bat and amazing batting practice power. Gray winds up having trouble translating it all to the playing field. He also has a rocket for an arm, but he has trouble staying within himself and repeating his throwing mechanics. This means the ball often misses the target. That said, he has an excellent package of tools that could play well as a fringe centerfielder like Adam Jones or getting pushed into right field.
Mike Siani CF/LHP
William Penn Charter (HS)
Siani is a defensive wunderkind, which is a rare find. He shows plus speed and a plus arm with good power and not so good contact. There is certainly potential for more there and a question as to whether a club can re-design his swing to make more use of his talents. If the hitting fails, there is some merit for trying him out as a southpaw reliever.
Tanner Dodson OF/RHP
CRAP: 45 (as a corner OF)
Dodson is, I think, a wild card here. Everyone seems to be evaluating him on his ability to be an excellent late inning reliever. He shows a high 90s fastball and a decent slider, which has made him a very effective closer. However, his 320/384/386 batting line obscures his work on the Cape with a 365/461/500 line. That line is impressive enough to raise his position prospect potential to a 45, according to our CRAP model. He sure seems like a very interesting chip to me. Other collegiate hitters are showing up as 35/40s, so Dodson sure is an outlier.
Joe Gray, Jr., OF
Hattiesburg HS
Gray has some loud tools, but seems to have trouble showing them at times. He does not control the strike zone well even though he has a very quick bat and amazing batting practice power. Gray winds up having trouble translating it all to the playing field. He also has a rocket for an arm, but he has trouble staying within himself and repeating his throwing mechanics. This means the ball often misses the target. That said, he has an excellent package of tools that could play well as a fringe centerfielder like Adam Jones or getting pushed into right field.
Mike Siani CF/LHP
William Penn Charter (HS)
Siani is a defensive wunderkind, which is a rare find. He shows plus speed and a plus arm with good power and not so good contact. There is certainly potential for more there and a question as to whether a club can re-design his swing to make more use of his talents. If the hitting fails, there is some merit for trying him out as a southpaw reliever.
Tanner Dodson OF/RHP
CRAP: 45 (as a corner OF)
Dodson is, I think, a wild card here. Everyone seems to be evaluating him on his ability to be an excellent late inning reliever. He shows a high 90s fastball and a decent slider, which has made him a very effective closer. However, his 320/384/386 batting line obscures his work on the Cape with a 365/461/500 line. That line is impressive enough to raise his position prospect potential to a 45, according to our CRAP model. He sure seems like a very interesting chip to me. Other collegiate hitters are showing up as 35/40s, so Dodson sure is an outlier.
Orioles Draft Targets 1:37(37)
Earlier today, I released this year's Collegiate Regression Analysis Projection (CRAP) models and some thoughts on the Orioles first selection. My general perspective would be for the Orioles to seek out positional talent early on in the draft. If desirable talent is available there, I think positional talent is easier to translate to further worth and easier to develop. It also somewhat dictates a move to look toward arms later in the draft.
That said, I think you still look for value. For instance, I would have interest in players who still appear to be 50+ value prospects by the CRAP model. Media rankings put potentially available players to be Griffin Conine (who I mentioned in the previous piece and who I think is worth a 1:11 selction), Steele Walker, and Nico Hoerner.
Steele Walker, LF
Oklahoma
CRAP: 50/55
Walker is a bat first guy without a great deal of power to go along with that bat. He is likely the guy everyone would call gritty. That said, he does all the little things on the field to improve his outcomes, which then really plays up his advanced bat at the plate. He is a smart player who plays solid defense, but with an arm that will slide him to left field.
Nico Hoerner, 2B
Stanford
CRAP: 50/55
Second basemen tend to be a tricky position to target because if they cannot defensively handle secondbase, then where else can their bat really play. For Hoerner, he is an offense first second baseman with great gap power and a solid showing in wood bat leagues. Those attributes impress the CRAP model and impress me. A plus speed guy with great doubles power, that might even play in the outfield if it falls apart on the dirt.
Will Banfield, C
Brookwood HS
Banfield might be a couple years away from being a Joey Bart. He is a solid defender with a rocket arm. He has trouble with his offense, but has light tower power. As a catcher, just a little bit of that power is needed to translate into a solid pro. All else fails, he might be able to be converted into a middle relief role although he has not developed that at all.
Ethan Hankins, RHP
Forsyth Central HS
Hankins is regarded as a backend first round talent, which is based on the kind of pitcher he was. Last year, he toyed with 100 mph with an excellent changeup. He sort of fits the Gausman role. However, he has been injured and has yet to return to the velocity he was producing last year. If healthy, he might have been a top 10 talent, but that did not happen. If somehow he dropped to 35, I think he would be a boon for the Orioles.
That said, I think you still look for value. For instance, I would have interest in players who still appear to be 50+ value prospects by the CRAP model. Media rankings put potentially available players to be Griffin Conine (who I mentioned in the previous piece and who I think is worth a 1:11 selction), Steele Walker, and Nico Hoerner.
Steele Walker, LF
Oklahoma
CRAP: 50/55
Walker is a bat first guy without a great deal of power to go along with that bat. He is likely the guy everyone would call gritty. That said, he does all the little things on the field to improve his outcomes, which then really plays up his advanced bat at the plate. He is a smart player who plays solid defense, but with an arm that will slide him to left field.
Nico Hoerner, 2B
Stanford
CRAP: 50/55
Second basemen tend to be a tricky position to target because if they cannot defensively handle secondbase, then where else can their bat really play. For Hoerner, he is an offense first second baseman with great gap power and a solid showing in wood bat leagues. Those attributes impress the CRAP model and impress me. A plus speed guy with great doubles power, that might even play in the outfield if it falls apart on the dirt.
Will Banfield, C
Brookwood HS
Banfield might be a couple years away from being a Joey Bart. He is a solid defender with a rocket arm. He has trouble with his offense, but has light tower power. As a catcher, just a little bit of that power is needed to translate into a solid pro. All else fails, he might be able to be converted into a middle relief role although he has not developed that at all.
Ethan Hankins, RHP
Forsyth Central HS
Hankins is regarded as a backend first round talent, which is based on the kind of pitcher he was. Last year, he toyed with 100 mph with an excellent changeup. He sort of fits the Gausman role. However, he has been injured and has yet to return to the velocity he was producing last year. If healthy, he might have been a top 10 talent, but that did not happen. If somehow he dropped to 35, I think he would be a boon for the Orioles.
Orioles Draft Targets 1:11(11)
If you are a veteran reader of the site, then you know my general take on the draft. I think what one should do is take either other worldly talent or the best college hitter. If there is no second coming and the best college hitter is clearly an overdraft, then you overdraft and use those savings betting on a high school talent that wants an overslot. In other words, I think you want superstars from the draft, but you at least need talent to pan out. College hitters are one of the better ways to ensure a greater likelihood of something good happening.
Be sure to take time to listen to former Camden Depot writer, current 2080 baseball writer Nick Faleris on Locked on Orioles discussing the Orioles and the 2018 draft.
With that in mind, I am focusing on what talent is likely available at the Orioles first selection, 11th overall.
Jonathan India, 3B
Florida
CRAP: 55
India really is the ideal pick here. He is an advanced bat that likely has a quick path to the Majors and a glove that should easily stick at the hot corner. As Faleris notes in the podcast, what dings India is that his performance last summer with a wood bat left a lot to be desired. Poor wood performances, particularly when bookended by successful collegiate campaigns, can point toward a swing that is honed for metal bats. Adapting the swing to a wood bat may add time to the developmental path or result in a swing that cancels out a great deal of power.
It appears that most analysts gloss over the wood bat issue and think he can move forward easily enough. However, once you get past the first few picks in any draft you will find warning flags. That said, he would likely be my primary target. Our CRAP model sees India as the second best collegiate position playing talent, best only by catcher Joey Bart.
Griffin Conine, OF
Duke University
CRAP: 50/55
Conine is the son of former MLB player Jeff Conine. He carried a ton of helium with him into the season due to his great play the previous summer. However, his first month or so was mired in a slump with only a recent tear making his performance look on par with other college bat first players. He looks to be a left fielder as his arm likely will not play in right field.
Looking around, the rankings largely put Conine in around the supplementary round or into the second round. I do not agree. His season happened, but so did he proficiency in a wood bat league as well as great play down the stretch this year. That unevenness looks bad, but does it really look as bad when you compare what he has done to the performance of others?
To me, he looks like a very solid bat and might even could be gotten for less than the slot, which would open up money later on to take chances on some promising high school talent.
Jarred Kelenic, OF
Waukesha West HS
Jarred Kelenic is a high school and deviates from my normal plan. He is the guy with the superstar talent. When you look at the Orioles, do you take the guys with the solid player ceilings or do you take someone who might be a multi-MVP kind of guy? Kelenic is a true five tool player who looks a lock to stay in center field. He is a player you look at and dream about building an outfield around him.
CRAP, as you probably know, is a collegiate model and only handles position players. It knows nothing about Kelenic. So, my interest here is predominantly due to the scouting outlook on him.
Soon, I will post the sandwich round post.
Be sure to take time to listen to former Camden Depot writer, current 2080 baseball writer Nick Faleris on Locked on Orioles discussing the Orioles and the 2018 draft.
With that in mind, I am focusing on what talent is likely available at the Orioles first selection, 11th overall.
Jonathan India, 3B
Florida
CRAP: 55
India really is the ideal pick here. He is an advanced bat that likely has a quick path to the Majors and a glove that should easily stick at the hot corner. As Faleris notes in the podcast, what dings India is that his performance last summer with a wood bat left a lot to be desired. Poor wood performances, particularly when bookended by successful collegiate campaigns, can point toward a swing that is honed for metal bats. Adapting the swing to a wood bat may add time to the developmental path or result in a swing that cancels out a great deal of power.
It appears that most analysts gloss over the wood bat issue and think he can move forward easily enough. However, once you get past the first few picks in any draft you will find warning flags. That said, he would likely be my primary target. Our CRAP model sees India as the second best collegiate position playing talent, best only by catcher Joey Bart.
Griffin Conine, OF
Duke University
CRAP: 50/55
Conine is the son of former MLB player Jeff Conine. He carried a ton of helium with him into the season due to his great play the previous summer. However, his first month or so was mired in a slump with only a recent tear making his performance look on par with other college bat first players. He looks to be a left fielder as his arm likely will not play in right field.
Looking around, the rankings largely put Conine in around the supplementary round or into the second round. I do not agree. His season happened, but so did he proficiency in a wood bat league as well as great play down the stretch this year. That unevenness looks bad, but does it really look as bad when you compare what he has done to the performance of others?
To me, he looks like a very solid bat and might even could be gotten for less than the slot, which would open up money later on to take chances on some promising high school talent.
Jarred Kelenic, OF
Waukesha West HS
Jarred Kelenic is a high school and deviates from my normal plan. He is the guy with the superstar talent. When you look at the Orioles, do you take the guys with the solid player ceilings or do you take someone who might be a multi-MVP kind of guy? Kelenic is a true five tool player who looks a lock to stay in center field. He is a player you look at and dream about building an outfield around him.
CRAP, as you probably know, is a collegiate model and only handles position players. It knows nothing about Kelenic. So, my interest here is predominantly due to the scouting outlook on him.
Soon, I will post the sandwich round post.
MLB Draft 2018: MLB, 2080, and CRAP rankings of College Position Players
Well, I managed to get it done again. Below is the ranking of collegiate position players with our Collegiate Regression Analysis Projection (CRAP) model as well as rankings by MLB Pipeline and 2080 Baseball. I put in italics players whom the model considers do not play in premier collegiate conferences. The model dings those guys a bit. Though, in the case of Bohm, his wood bat performance eliminates that hit. However, if we ignore the conference adjustment. Bohm would move up to a 55/60 rating for CRAP. Swaggerty becomes a 50/55. Isbel rises to a 40/45. The others are sub 40. In other words, CRAP really does not see in Swaggerty what the others see.
Anyway, here is the comparison.
Anyway, here is the comparison.
| Player Name | Po. | MLB | 2080 | CRAP | CRAP # |
| Joey Bart | C | 2 | 5 | 1 | 55 |
| Jonathan India | 3B | 4 | 3 | 2 | 55 |
| Griffin Conine | OF | 13 | 9 | 3 | 50/55 |
| Steele Walker | OF | 8 | 8 | 4 | 50/55 |
| Trevor Larnach | OF | 6 | 7 | 5 | 50/55 |
| Nico Hoerner | 2B | 15 | 13 | 6 | 50/55 |
| Jake Mangum | OF | 29 | 28 | 7 | 45/50 |
| Nick Madrigal | 2B | 1 | 4 | 8 | 45 |
| Seth Beer | 1B | 12 | 12 | 9 | 45 |
| Alec Bohm | 1B | 3 | 2 | 10 | 45 |
| Grant Little | OF | 22 | 23 | 11 | 45 |
| Cadyn Grenier | SS | 18 | 24 | 12 | 40/45 |
| Luken Baker | 1B | 16 | 33 | 13 | 40/45 |
| Cal Raleigh | 1B | 26 | 20 | 14 | 40 |
| DaShawn Keirsey | CF | 24 | 19 | 15 | 40 |
| Travis Swaggerty | OF | 5 | 1 | 16 | 40 |
| Alfonso Rivas | 1B | 25 | 27 | 17 | 40 |
| Tristan Pompey | OF | 14 | 29 | 18 | 35/40 |
| Gage Canning | OF | 21 | 21 | 19 | 35/40 |
| J.J. Schwarz | 1B | 34 | NA | 20 | 35/40 |
| Kyler Murray | CF | 10 | 11 | 21 | 35/40 |
| Zach Watson | OF | 17 | 16 | 22 | 35/40 |
| Kyle Isbel | OF | 19 | 15 | 23 | 35 |
| Jameson Hannah | OF | 9 | 6 | 24 | 35 |
| Jeremy Eierman | 3B | 7 | 22 | 25 | 35 |
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)