12 June 2017

2017 CRAP Positional Collegiate Rankings for the Draft

This will be a short post because I actually somehow thought the draft was tomorrow and I have only a lunch break to push this out.  Anyway, I developed CRAP last year.  You can read about it here (add soon).  In sum, the model worked well last year, but I used a curated list handed to me that included collegiate positional players on the top 100 rankings.  This year, I expanded the list from about 20 to 83.  This list also differs because it includes players in collegiate conferences I did not use when constructing the model.  Effectively, anyone outside of the ACC, SEC, Pac-12, and Big 12 did not have this model consider them.  To compensate for that, I tried to develop conference strength ratings, but that is not related to future performance.  It only is related to performance in season across collegiate conferences.

Anyway, the model top 10 list for tonight:

Name Po. BA xRating xSlash(HiA)
Joe Dunand SS 130 50/55 276/351/461
Will Toffey 3B 162 50 285/402/439
Adam Haseley OF 8 50 296/401/453
J.J. Schwarz C 374 50 255/345/393
Garrett Benge 3B NR 50 275/388/417
Mike Papierski C NR 50 247/362/389
Brent Rooker OF 45 45/50 284/374/485
Chris Williams C 118 45/50 249/309/412
Brendan McKay 1B 3 (P) 45/50 308/423/492
Drew Ellis 3B 66 45/50 269/359/434

You might wonder where the rest of the top collegiate bats for BA were projected.

Name Po. BA xRating xSlash(HiA)
Evan White IB 12 40 248/311/390
Keston Hiura OF 14 45 279/378/422
Pavin Smith 1B 15 40/45 275/373/412
Jeren Kendall OF 18 40 245/309/384
Logan Warmoth SS 19 45/50 261/332/398
Jake Burger 3B 20 40 228/308/370
Stuart Fairchild OF 43 40/45 257/329/410
Brian Miller OF 44 40/45 264/345/383
Kevin Merrell SS 51 40 230/302/335
Greg Deichmann OF 64 45 266/368/430
Gavin Sheets 1B 65 45 282/395/461
K.J. Harrison C 68 45 263/338/387
J.J. Matijevic 1B 70 45/50 302/366/464
Michael Gigliotti OF 71 35 211/304/312

As you can see, there is a whole lot more jumbled around this year than it was last year.  One major reason is that there really are no standouts this season.  Last year, the model has players flirting with the 60s and this year that is not the case.  However, it appears that there is a large number of fringe MLB starters this year which did not seem present last year.

Personally, I am a bit surprised.  I thought Brian Miller and Keston Hiura would perform better according to the model, but that was not the case.  It also is a bit unsettling as a modeler that nine of the top ten in the CRAP top ten are players that Baseball America thought were not first day selections.

Oh well, let's check back tonight and then in a few years.

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