Orioles in Review: July 2014

Here is a look at how Orioles players fared in the month of July. General sample-size warnings apply, as this only incorporates 31 days worth of numbers. Obviously the point of this isn't to formulate an overall impression of any individual player, but instead to provide a snapshot of the past month.

First up are the hitters in order of fWAR for the month. I've included season fWAR and PA’s for a bit more context. A reminder that while no defensive metrics are shown here individually, fWAR does incorporate defensive play. 

Player	PA	fWAR	wOBA	fWAR season (PA season)
Machado	73	0.9	.394	1.7 (305)
Jones	108	0.7	.329	4.0 (464)
Pearce	90	0.4	.308	2.8 (251)
Joseph	53	0.3	.309	0.4 (153)
Young	26	0.2	.406	0.8 (140)
Lough	11	0.2	.489	0.7 (142)
Hardy	103	0.2	.259	2.0 (404)
Flaherty	55	0.0	.254	-0.1 (193)
Hundley	42	-0.1	.246	0.0 (97)
Cruz	106	-0.1	.290	2.1 (453)
Markakis	113	-0.1	.276	1.3 (492)
Schoop	69	-0.3	.204	0.3 (323)
Davis	88	-0.3	.263	0.2 (375)

-Perhaps Manny Machado’s back was acting up because he was carrying the team through the month of July.  Despite the limited plate appearances due to suspension and injury, his fWAR was good for 28^th in all of MLB in July while his wOBA ranked 54^th of the 467 hitters with 10+ PA’s in July.

-After a great April and May, Nelson Cruz has been mediocre since, as was highlighted here.

-As Jon tweeted last week, Chris Davis has struggled, to put it mildly. He’s dead last in fWAR for the month and barely replacement level on the season.

                

Here is a look at the starters for July. I've excluded T.J. McFarland (5 IP as a SP in July) and Ubaldo Jimenez (3.2 IP).

Player	IP	fWAR	FIP	Season fWAR (Season IP)
Gausman	28.0	0.6	3.24	1.1 (56.0)
Tillman	37.0	0.5	3.78	1.0 (136.0)
Norris	22.2	0.4	3.71	0.9 (109.2)
Chen	24.2	0.3	3.94	1.4 (142.1)
Gonzalez	29.2	0.2	4.75	0.3 (100.2)

-This is the second consecutive month that Gausman has led O’s starters in fWAR. One would hope and think that Gausman is here to stay, even once Jimenez returns from the DL.

 

-Gausman (3.54 ERA) and Bud Norris (3.97 ERA) both had a higher ERA than FIP on the month, while the opposite was true for the other 3 starters.

-Speaking of which, Miguel Gonzalez posted a FIP of 4.75 FIP for July, way out of whack with his 1.82 ERA. These kinds of things can happen over small sample sizes, but still worth keeping in mind moving forward.

   

And lastly, the relievers. I've excluded Preston Guilmet, he of the 1 IP in July.

Player	IP	fWAR	FIP	Season fWAR (Season IP)
Matusz	8.1	0.6	0.73	0.0 (38.0)
Britton	13.1	0.5	1.78	1.0 (55.2)
Hunter	12.0	0.4	1.88	0.4 (38.1)
O’Day	16	0.4	2.38	0.9 (49.0)
Brach	14.1	0.2	3.06	0.2 (39.0)
Webb	6.1	0.1	2.82	0.8 (42.2)
McFarland	9.1	-0.1	3.43	0.1 (36.0)

-Don’t look now, but Brian Matusz’s stellar July has him back at replacement level on the season. Matusz posted a 14.04 K/9 on the month. It would be a safe bet to expect him for to give up a home run soon after not giving one up in all of July.

-Ryan Webb posted a 2.82 FIP in July but his ERA was 11.37. Combine that with a BABIP of .483 and 

it’s safe to say that bad luck is as responsible as anything for Webb’s recent demotion (although I don’t expect him to be gone long).

-Tommy Hunter has settled nicely back into a non-closer role, posting his second consecutive month of a positive fWAR.

As I said above, it would clearly be erroneous to form your opinion of a player over just one month of play. However, while such a small sample size can be pure noise with no meaningful takeaways, it can be helpful to see what direction each player is trending in, as well as a glance at what to expect moving forward. If you have any suggestions of numbers to include or not include in future reviews like this, please leave it in the comment section.