It's clear that the Orioles are not getting a good early return on the four-year, $50 million deal they inked Jimenez to in February. But this post isn't meant to bash Jimenez; there's enough of that going on already. I was curious how often starting pitchers could hand out walks and still pitch effectively. Jimenez has racked up the walks, but he clearly hasn't been effective. So I went to Baseball-Reference's Play Index and simply searched for pitchers (in the Expansion Era of 1961-2014) with seasons of more than 150 innings pitched, a BB/9 over 5.40 (where Jimenez is now), and an ERA+ over 100 (sorted by ERA+).
Rk | Player | SO | IP | Year | Age | Tm | G | GS | W | L | SV | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Nolan Ryan | 341 | 299.0 | 6.14 | 141 | 1977 | 30 | CAL | 37 | 37 | 19 | 16 | .543 | 0 | 2.77 | 3.12 | 0.36 | 10.26 |
2 | Don Schwall | 91 | 178.2 | 5.54 | 129 | 1961 | 25 | BOS | 25 | 25 | 15 | 7 | .682 | 0 | 3.22 | 4.09 | 0.40 | 4.58 |
3 | Bart Johnson | 153 | 178.0 | 5.61 | 123 | 1971 | 21 | CHW | 53 | 16 | 12 | 10 | .545 | 14 | 2.93 | 3.36 | 0.46 | 7.74 |
4 | Nolan Ryan | 367 | 332.2 | 5.46 | 118 | 1974 | 27 | CAL | 42 | 41 | 22 | 16 | .579 | 0 | 2.89 | 2.98 | 0.49 | 9.93 |
5 | Sam McDowell | 192 | 214.2 | 6.41 | 113 | 1971 | 28 | CLE | 35 | 31 | 13 | 17 | .433 | 1 | 3.40 | 4.17 | 0.92 | 8.05 |
6 | Russ Ortiz | 164 | 207.2 | 5.42 | 113 | 1999 | 25 | SFG | 33 | 33 | 18 | 9 | .667 | 0 | 3.81 | 4.95 | 1.04 | 7.11 |
7 | Bo Belinsky | 145 | 187.1 | 5.86 | 109 | 1962 | 25 | LAA | 33 | 31 | 10 | 11 | .476 | 1 | 3.56 | 4.06 | 0.58 | 6.97 |
8 | Jose de Jesus | 118 | 181.2 | 6.34 | 107 | 1991 | 26 | PHI | 31 | 29 | 10 | 9 | .526 | 1 | 3.42 | 4.24 | 0.35 | 5.85 |
9 | Randy Johnson | 241 | 210.1 | 6.16 | 105 | 1992 | 28 | SEA | 31 | 31 | 12 | 14 | .462 | 0 | 3.77 | 3.61 | 0.56 | 10.31 |
10 | Chuck Estrada | 160 | 212.0 | 5.60 | 104 | 1961 | 23 | BAL | 33 | 31 | 15 | 9 | .625 | 0 | 3.69 | 4.24 | 0.81 | 6.79 |
11 | Randy Johnson | 228 | 201.1 | 6.79 | 103 | 1991 | 27 | SEA | 33 | 33 | 13 | 10 | .565 | 0 | 3.98 | 4.00 | 0.67 | 10.19 |
12 | Ed Correa | 189 | 202.1 | 5.60 | 102 | 1986 | 20 | TEX | 32 | 32 | 12 | 14 | .462 | 0 | 4.23 | 3.78 | 0.67 | 8.41 |
13 | Nolan Ryan | 186 | 198.0 | 6.00 | 102 | 1975 | 28 | CAL | 28 | 28 | 14 | 12 | .538 | 0 | 3.45 | 3.67 | 0.59 | 8.45 |
14 | Dennis Blair | 82 | 163.1 | 5.84 | 102 | 1975 | 21 | MON | 30 | 27 | 8 | 15 | .348 | 0 | 3.80 | 4.70 | 0.77 | 4.52 |
An ERA+ of 100 is average, so it's not surprising that nearly half the names on the list are close to that mark. The most recent player to accomplish this feat was Russ Ortiz with the Giants in 1999. Three players in the table (Don Schwall, Jose de Jesus, and Dennis Blair) actually walked more players than they struck out. And Nolan Ryan (three) and Randy Johnson (two) appear in the table multiple times. Bart Johnson, in 178 innings in 1971, started 16 games and also managed to rack up 14 saves.
It should go without saying that it's extremely difficult to pitch well while walking so many batters. And Ubaldo Jimenez is no Nolan Ryan or Randy Johnson.
3 comments:
What pops out to me is the 299 innings Ryan threw in '77. Pitchers regularly threw for over 300 innings in the '70s and had lasting careers. How times have changed.
In the 70s, there were often black holes in a batting order and you could pitch to contact. Back then an average MLB fastball was around 85 mph. Now, it is about 92 mph just for starters.
Times have changed quite a bit.
Also, pitchers did not regularly throw over 300 IP. A few pitchers did.
According to FIP and xFIP (and fWAR), Jimenez has actually been better than Miguel Gonzalez this year despite a ERA differential of 1.03. Despite the walks, Jimenez' high K% and Gonzo's astronomical HR% give him Jimenez edge. I agree with Buck's decision to stick Jimenez in the pen in favor of Gonzo, but the stats would seem to suggest otherwise, no?
It should also be mentioned that Gonzo has outperformed his FIP and xFIP by about a run each over 390 career innings. If this out-performance is deemed sustainable, the most interesting question of all becomes 'why don't the peripherals apply to him?'
Post a Comment