Adam Jones' Interesting 2014 Splits

Adam Jones is having another very solid season for the Orioles. Jones' fWAR of 4.4 leads all Orioles and is ranked 18^th among all qualified MLB batters, while his wRC+ of 119 ranks 3rd among all Orioles with 295 or more plate appearances. Jones' current fWAR of 4.4 is tied for the highest mark of his career and ZiPS projects Jones to finish with a fWAR of 5.3. Jones’ improved defensive numbers have played a large part in this, as his offensive production is pretty similar to his career production. However, what is noteworthy about Jones' offensive production is not his level of production but how he's producing. Vs. RHP Jones has been a below average hitter so far this season, but he is still having a productive offensive season because he is crushing LHP unlike he ever has before in his MLB career.

Throughout his career, Jones has hit RHP a bit better than he has hit LHP. Against RHP Jones has posted a career wOBA of .345 (112 wRC+), while vs. LHP he has a wOBA of .326 (100 wRC+). In 2014, Jones' numbers are drastically different. Vs. RHP he has a wOBA of .303 (90 wRC+) but vs. LHP he has a wOBA of .467 (203 wRC+). Here’s a look, courtesy of Fangraphs, at Jones’ season-by-season wOBA that shows just how drastic the change in his splits have been this season.

               

Here’s some of his batted ball numbers that may help to shed some light on Jones’ splits, this season versus his career.

Vs. RHP

	LD%	HR/FB	BABIP
Career	18.5%	16.2%	.314
2014	16.7%	13.7%	.283

Vs. LHP

	LD%	HR/FB	BABIP
Career	18.8%	12.8%	.317
2014	18.7%	25.8%	.404

                                                                               

On the RHP side of things, Jones’ LD% is down slightly and he also hasn’t been as fortunate when putting the ball in play. But vs. LHP, the differences are much more noticeable. While Jones hasn’t been hitting line drives any more frequently, he has been much more fortunate vs. LHP this season relative to his career, with fly balls leaving the park over twice as often while he is hitting over .400 when putting balls in play. The splits could be exaggerated by Jones FB% (not shown in the charts above). Jones’ FB% vs. LHP this season is 4% below his career mark, perhaps helping him to sustain his HR/FB for a bit longer.

Vs. RHP

	K%	BB%
Career	19.0%	3.6%
2014	19.5%	1.2%

Vs. LHP

	K%	BB%
Career	20.2%	6.3%
2014	16.0%	7.6%

Jones' already awful walk rate vs. RHP (and in general) has gotten even worse this season, possibly one of the reasons, albeit small, his production has dropped. Against LHP, Jones has been striking out less, an improvement noticeable enough to partially explain his drastic uptick in production this season. While a 7.6 BB% isn’t anything to get excited about, contrasting it to his 1.2 BB% vs. RHP helps to explain Jones’ splits this season.  

When talking about just a portion of a season, any conclusions about production must come with a sample-size warning. This sudden change in Jones’ splits may prove to be just a blip on the radar screen. Jones’ BABIP and HR/FB vs. LHP scream sample-size warning. Nothing jumped out at me when I looked at heatmaps or spray charts.

With Manny Machado now out for the year, the continued production of Jones becomes even more important for the Orioles. While I don't think Jones is an A.L. MVP candidate, he is definitely one of, if not the, most valuable Orioles players this season. This is not a surprise. What is a surprise is the way in which Jones has been productive at the plate so far this year, hitting LHP like never before. Jones’ current production vs. LHP, if sustained, could prove to be especially valuable to the Orioles in the playoffs, as many of their potential opponents have impressive LHP’s on their roster.

All stats from Fangraphs and current as of 8/25/14