Bud Norris' 2nd (and Much Better) Norfolk Rehabilitation Start

Previously in Camden Depot, I reported on Bud Norris' first minor-league rehabilitation start, with the AAA Norfolk Tides. He did not achieve the results he (presumably) wanted. His second minor-league rehabilitation start was with the AA Bowie Baysox, and then he returned to Norfolk for a third start. He was originally scheduled to pitch on June 2, but that game was postponed by rain and wet grounds to a doubleheader the next day. Norris made the start in Game 1 of the doubleheader, and I was working as a BIS scorer for that doubleheader. Thus, I got to see Norris' start from the top row of lower-deck seats in Harbor Park (under the overhang of the concourse roof, avoiding the threat of rain.)

As I did in the earlier post, I will simply review every opposing Gwinnett Brave at-bat and follow up with some general observations. I will preface this by saying that after this outing, it shouldn't have been too surprising that Norris was substantially more effective in his June 7 Orioles start.

First Inning

Batter 1: Eury Perez -- Called Strike, Foul, Ball, Ball, Strikout (Swinging)

Batter 2: Jose Peraza - Foul, Called Strike, Ball, Ground Out to Shortstop

On the 1-2 pitch, Peraza hit a sharp one-hop grounder right at Paul Janish, who gloved it and made a strong throw to first base.

Batter 3: Cedric Hunter - Ball, Foul, Fly Out to Right Fielder

On the 1-1 pitch, Hunter hit a pop fly to shallow right-center, behind the second baseman. Right fielder Chris Parmelee called off Rey Navarro and made the catch, running toward the infield.

Second Inning

Batter 4: Adonis Garcia - Ball, Foul, Ground Out to Shortstop

On the 1-1 pitch, Garcia hit a ground ball into the hole between third and short. The ball wasn't hit very hard, so Janish was able to get to the ball, plant, and make an accurate throw to retire Garcia.

Batter 5: Ryan Lavarnway - Foul, Called Strike, Foul, Ground Out to Pitcher

On the 0-2 pitch, Lavarnway hit a ground ball right back to Norris on the pitcher's mound. He fielded the ball and made the easy throw to first base.

Batter 6: Sean Kazmar - Called Strike, Ball, Foul, Foul, Ball, Line Out to Third Baseman

On the 2-2 pitch, Kazmar hit a hard line drive to the left of third Michael Almanzar. Almanzar took one step to his left and caught the ball in the webbing of his glove.

Third Inning

Batter 7: Wil Nieves - Called Strike, Foul, Ball, Ball, Ball, Pop Out to Second Baseman

On the 3-2 pitch, Nieves hit a pop fly behind second baseman Navarro. Navarro took a couple of steps toward first base and camped under the fly, which he caught.

Batter 8: Daniel Castro - Called Strike, Ground Out to Second Baseman

On the 0-1 pitch, Castro hit a routine grounder one or two steps to the left of second Navarro. He was easily able to pick the ball up and throw Castro out at first.

Batter 9: Mycal Jones - Called Strike, Swinging Strike, Ball, Ball, Ball, Walk

Norris got ahead of Jones 0-2 and then missed with four straight pitches.

Batter 10: Perez - Ball, Called Strike, Ball, Foul Tip, Ball, Ground Out to Second Baseman

We were getting concerned that Norris was running out of steam when he surrendered his second three-ball count, but Perez hit a routine ground ball to Navarro. With Jones running on the pitch, Navarro had to throw to first to retire Perez.

Fourth Inning

Batter 11: Peraza - Called Strike, Foul, Ball, Foul, Ground Out to Shortstop

On the 1-2 pitch, Peraza hit a routine ground ball right at Janish, who threw Peraza out at first base.

Batter 12: Hunter - Called Strike, Ball, Ground Out First Base to Pitcher

On the 1-1 pitch, Hunter hit a slow ground ball to first baseman Christian Walker. Walker fielded it and threw to Norris covering.

Batter 13: Garcia - Swinging Strike, Called Strike, Ball, Ball, Strikeout (swinging)

Michael Bowden relieved Norris to start the fifth inning. 

Observations:

• The game was played in unfavorable hitting conditions, a cool breezy evening with an occasional burst of rain. Also, Gwinnett has a team OPS of .654; while Rochester, Norris' opponent in his first start, has a team OPS of .712.
• Obviously, Norris pitched much better in this start than he did in his first start. Gwinnett hit two balls hard off him, but neither had much loft and both were hit at fielders. The most notable difference is that no balls were hit deep to the outfield, and few balls were hit in the air. There was the one hard line drive that Almanzar caught; and two pop flies that Navarro could have caught (although Parmelee called him off one.)
• It seems likely that the key to Norris' success is whether or not he can generate ground balls, or perhaps more precisely whether or not he can avoid generating fly balls. I don't know whether his success in this start was because Gwinnett has no power (17 total home runs, .337 team slugging percentage) or because Norris pitched better.
• Norris doesn't seem to be a pitcher with swing-and-miss stuff. He did generate twice as many swinging strikes in this game as he did in his first game - but that was still only four. 
• As bad a Norris was in his first rehab start (2.2  12 9 9 0 1, game score -1), his opponent on June 2, Chien-Ming Wang, was worse (3 11 10 10 4 0, game score -7).

In this start, we saw hope for Bud Norris, hope that was at least partially fulfilled in his June 7 start. It seems clear that Norris won't be anything more than an adequate innings-eater, at least in 2015 - his stuff just isn't good enough. 

Bud Norris' Norfolk Rehabilitation Start

Tonight, weather permitting, Bud Norris will make his second rehabilitation start with the Norfolk Tides. It will be his third overall rehabilitation start; his second game with the Bowie Baysox. His first rehabilitation start was in game one of the Tides' May 22 doubleheader against the Rochester Red Wings. The Orioles planned for Norris to make about ninety pitches to get himself into condition to rejoin the major-league team.

I was the milb.com Gameday datacaster for that doubleheader and thus saw Norris' performance from the press box. Like most Orioles' fans, I was disappointed in Norris' ineffective performance, in which he gave up nine earned runs and twelve hits in 2 2/3 innings. The Tides' radio broadcasters, trying to find something positive to say about his start, repeatedly emphasized that several of the hits Norris allowed were ground balls that found a hole between infielders. Is that true? Did he also surrender some hard-hit balls that were turned into outs? Just how well did Bud Norris pitch in his first rehabilitation start?

I don't have access to sophisticated video analysis tools to determine how much Norris' pitches broke. I don't even have radar-gun readings from the in-house pitch-speed display, which I can't consistently track because of my datacasting responsibilities. I did, however, record every pitch and the result of every pitch put into play. This article will review every Red Wing at-bat against Norris in more detail than the Gameday recap or the game stories. I will then follow with some general observations about his performance.

First Inning

Batter 1: Eric Farris -- Ball, Foul, Double to left
On the 1-1 pitch, Farris hit a medium-speed ground ball between third baseman Michael Almanzar and the foul line. Almanzar dove for the ball but missed it; left fielder Nolan Reimold retrieved the ball in foul territory and was unable to prevent Farris from coasting into second.

Batter 2: James Beresford - Ball, Ball, Called Strike, Called Strike, Error by second baseman
With a 2-2 count, Beresford hit a chopper to second baseman Derrik Gibson. Gibson got to the ball and fielded it, but dropped it before he could throw to first. Farris moved to third; he would have advanced even if Gibson had made the play. There was no controversy about the error; and as it turned out it didn't matter.

Batter 3: Josmil Pinto - Ball, Called Strike, Foul, Ball, Ball, 6-4-3 Double Play
On the full count, Pinto hit a tailor-made double-play ball to shortstop Paul Janish, who threw to Gibson to force Beresford. Gibson threw to first to retire the slow-moving Pinto. Farris scored on the play. Some people thought that if not for Gibson's error on the previous play, Janish might have been able to hold Farris at third before throwing out Pinto (which might have made Farris' run unearned); but that too didn't become an issue.

Batter 4: Kennys Vargas - Called Strike, Ball, Ball, Home Run to Left-Center
Vargas went the other way on the 2-1 pitch and hit a towering fly ball into the Rochester bullpen, about 385 feet or so from home plate. Although there was a wind blowing out, the home run was no fluke.

Batter 5: Danny Ortiz - Ball, Foul, Ball, Foul, Single to Center
On a 2-2 pitch, Ortiz hit a fairly hard ground ball back up the middle, just to the right of the pitcher's rubber. Norris was unable to catch it and neither Gibson nor Janish could get to it before it reached the outfield.

Batter 6: Wilkin Ramirez - Ball, Ground out to Second
With a 1-1 count, Ramirez hit a soft ground ball to the right side. Gibson charged the ball and threw Ramirez out at first.

Second Inning

Batter 7: Ryan Wheeler - Ball, Called Strike, Automatic Double to Right-Center

On a 1-1 pitch, Wheeler hit a deep fly ball between center fielder Julio Borbon and right field Dariel Alvarez. The ball hit the warning track on the fly and bounced over the outfield wall. The ball was crushed and traveled well over 380 feet on the fly.

Batter 8: Jose Martinez - Ball, Called Strike, Foul, Foul, Ball, Ground out to Second

On a 2-2 pitch, Martinez hit a routine grounder to the right side. Gibson fielded it and threw Martinez out at first, with Wheeler advancing to third.

Batter 9: Doug Bernier - Called Strike, Ball, Foul, Strikeout (Called)

Batter 10: Farris - Called Strike, Single to Right

On an 0-1 pitch, Farris hit a low line drive/ground ball that got past a diving Chris Parmelee on one bounce. Wheeler scored from third base.

Batter 11: Beresford - Ball, Ball (Stolen Base), Foul, Foul, Ball, Foul, Foul, Foul, Single to Center

On the second pitch, Farris broke for second and easily stole the base; the pitch was low and outside and catcher Steve Clevenger had no real chance to throw him out. After Beresford worked the count full and fouled off several 3-2 pitches, he hit a ground ball up the middle that neither Norris, Gibson, nor Janish could field. Farris scored as the ball wasn't hit hard enough to give Borbon a chance to throw him out at the plate.

Batter 12: Pinto - Single to Left

Pinto hit a hard ground ball to Janish's left. It wasn't that far from Janish but it was hit hard enough so that Janish's dive couldn't stop it. Beresford stopped at second.

Batter 13: Vargas - Called Strike, Ball, Home Run to Right Center

On a 1-1 pitch, Kennys Vargas hit his second home run of the game - a fly ball that sailed over the bullpen and eventually rolled / bounced into the Elizabeth River, 480+ feet from home plate. Press-box workers who have been working ever since Harbor Park opened in 1993 could remember only two other balls hit into the river - one by Jim Thome and one by Sam Horn. 

Batter 14: Ortiz - Foul, Ball, Fly out to Right Field

On a 1-1 pitch, Ortiz lifted a routine fly ball to right field that Alvarez caught easily.

Third Inning

Batter 15: Ramirez - Fly out to Right Field

Ramirez hit the first pitch into right center field. Alvarez came in a few steps and caught the routine fly ball.

Batter 16: Wheeler - Ball, Called Strike, Single to Center

On the 1-1 pitch, Wheeler hit a line drive over the infield that fell in front of Borbon. 

Batter 17: Martinez - Ball, Swinging Strike, Ball, Line Out to Left

On the 2-1 pitch, Martinez hit a hard line drive to left center field. Nolan Reimold raced into the gap and made a snow-cone catch. Wheeler was able to get back to first without a throw.

Batter 18: Bernier - Foul, Single to Left

On an 0-1 pitch, Bernier hit a ground ball between Almanzar and Janish. Janish wasn't able to get to it and it got through into left field. Wheeler stopped at second.

Batter 19: Farris - Ball, Swinging Strike, Single to Left

On the 1-1 pitch, Farris hit another ground ball between Almanzar and Janish that neither one could quite get to. Wheeler scored and Bernier stopped at second.

Batter 20: Beresford - Called Strike, Ball, Double to Left

Beresford drove the 1-1 pitch down the left-field line. Reimold was able to cut the ball off before it got to the wall, and was able to hold Farris at third, but Bernier scored easily from second.

Norris relieved by Steve Johnson

Observations:

• While a few of the hits off Norris could be said to be "lucky", most of them were well-hit balls that would have required extraordinarily good or extraordinarily lucky defense to turn into outs. 
• Norris accumulated only two swing-and-miss strikes. When Red Wing batters swung at his pitches, they either hit them into play or fouled them off. 
• Some of the hits were by hitters who are major-league quality hitters - Josmil Pinto and Kennys Vargas. But others were by non-major-league quality hitters - Eric Farris, James Beresford, and Ryan Wheeler.

It's dangerous to draw conclusions about a pitcher about only one start, especially if it's a rehabilitation start. Nevertheless, it's safe to say that Norris wasn't ready to help the Orioles on May 22.