When the Orioles signed Danny Valencia to a minor league deal on March 3, it was a random move. Not unlike the O's, of course, just random. No one should get upset about a minor league signing, but it was a little tough to see the fit. The Orioles already have first base/DH types like Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, and Trey Mancini on the roster, and just a week before, the O's brought back Pedro Alvarez, another 1B/DH.
Still, while all of the O's players above have played different positions in their careers, all of them except for Mancini are primarily first basemen and/or designated hitters now. Trumbo could certainly play in the outfield some for the O's in 2018, but he shouldn't. And if first base were open for Mancini, he'd be playing there instead of left field.
All of this is to say: Valencia is a bit different than a typical depth addition at first base (like Alvarez). He's more like another Swiss Army knife the O's employed during the golden years of the Buck Showalter/Dan Duquette era. Of course, I'm talking about the great Steve Pearce.
In almost 1,000 plate appearances with the O's from 2012-2016, Pearce posted a wRC+ of 123. His masterpiece, far and away, is the 2014 season when he somehow put up a 161 wRC+ which fueled a bWAR of 5.9 and an fWAR of 4.9 in fewer than 400 plate appearances. Like many things during the Showalter/Duquette era, it was stunning and amazing.
Valencia is similar to Pearce: they're about the same age (Valencia is 33; Pearce is 34), he can hit left-handed pitching, and he can play multiple positions well enough.
Valencia: 136 wRC+ vs. LHP (career)
Pearce: 126 wRC+ vs. LHP (career)
Valencia isn't as good of a defensive first baseman as Pearce, and Valencia has rated poorly defensively at third base, but he's an OK enough corner outfielder and can fill in at second base. He also doesn't fare as well against same-handed throwers as Pearce (85 wRC+ vs. RHP vs. a 100 wRC+ for Pearce).
But having Valencia around can be useful. It's beneficial to have a player capable of handling multiple positions, and it's even better when that player mashes left-handed pitching. From 2015 to 2017, Valencia is tied for 19th best (with Edwin Encarnacion) in the majors with a 133 wRC+ against lefties (min. 400 plate appearances).
When the roster is clogged with all of Davis, Trumbo, and Mancini, it may be tough to find playing time for Valencia. But with Trumbo scheduled to start the year on the disabled list, there's room for someone with Valencia's skill-set. Now, instead of hoping for platoon at-bats in right field and some utility player work, he could receive at-bats at DH as well.
If the O's stay disciplined in using Valencia as a platoon bat and avoid giving him too much work at third base, he could be a nice depth addition. It wouldn't even be that surprising if he ended up with better overall offensive numbers than Trumbo, and it could be a bonus to have him around if Trumbo's injury lingers or Davis's elbow issues don't go away. The bar is low for a minor league signing, but Valencia's presence already seems helpful.
Showing posts with label Steve Pearce. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Steve Pearce. Show all posts
20 March 2018
02 August 2016
Arrivals and Departures: Miley and Pearce Coming to Town
During the Dan Duquette era, July and August are a time of player arrivals. The Orioles' barren farm system tends to restrict the club to finding second and third tier additions with the lone exception of 2014 when elite relief arms were cheaper. 2016 was not like 2014, it was more like other seasons where a B or C level prospect was dispensed for a potentially useful player. The two coming in this year were LHSP Wade Miley and UTL Steve Pearce.
Matt Perez and Matt Kremnitzer addressed the Miley addition yesterday. My only addition would be to note that Miley has had a rather up and down season, but has strung together a series of adequate games. I believe Ryan Romano will dive into that for us on MASN. Miley certainly is not a pitcher you expect great things from, His main issue this year has been leaving the ball up a few times and getting it punished. The Orioles tend to emphasize pitching low in the zone and rising with high four seamers, so maybe Miley can escape the home run bug or at limit it to bases empty scenarios. One would think most teams disagree as the cost was rather low: an older prospect who one day hopes to be Wade Miley.
The second piece the Orioles added was a replacement of their earlier target: Melvin Upton, Jr. The Orioles were looking for a bat to deliver more production against left handed starters, which their end of season schedule is likely to be chock full of. The replacement is a name common to Orioles fans and was perhaps the player who strongly pushed the Orioles into a 2014 runaway season: Steve Pearce.
Pearce is a right handed hitter who, when on, is the living embodiment of a professional hitter and, when off, is the guy you want to shuttle back to Norfolk. 2015 saw the guy who should be in Norfolk, but who still inspired many of the writers here to advocate for him to be re-signed during our October blueprint series. Pearce wanted immensely to return to Baltimore and basically put himself in stasis until it was painfully obvious that the Orioles had zero interest in him. He decided to go home on a one year deal at 4.75 MM and, at age 33, be the oldest player on the Rays by two years.
Although, in all too typical fashion, Pearce has experienced some injuries this season, he has also rediscovered his 2014 glory. He is slashing 389/484/741 (227 wRC+) against southpaws and a more modest 280/351/440 (118 wRC+) against right handers. Although he played often in the outfield for Baltimore, Pearce's time in Tampa has been spent at first base, second based, designated hitter, and a splash at third base. In Pearce, the Orioles appear to have found all of their needs answered except for someone who can backup Adam Jones. All in all, he fits.
The cost for Pearce may at first glance not appear to be much, but it was more than Ariel Miranda, the pitcher exchanged for Wade Miley. The Orioles gave the Rays, arguably, their only true catcher in the system: Jonah Heim. Heim is known as a defensive first catcher whose bat has lagged, but who is still young enough for him to figure out enough offensively. Defensively, he is a gem. Good footwork, short arm path, short pop times, gets out in front of the plate with ease, solid receiving skills, and decent blocking. These are important skills to have as a catcher because history has shown that catchers who lack defensive adequacy almost never acquire it. It is a rule that a few organizations take as gospel in that they never draft defense-suspect catchers.
Heim is not an elite prospect. He profiles more as a backup catcher and is one who I am fairly confident will reach the majors and put in at least a few years. I have great doubt that Chance Sisco can figure out what he needs to do behind the plate and have similar concerns about Alex Murphy. Sisco, though, has enough of a bat that he might be able to hit enough for second base and has the athleticism for it. Though, like Schoop, he appears to lack the reflexes and agility to be a good defensive second baseman. Anyway, the point being that Heim was actually unique in the Orioles system: a likely MLBer who actually could catch. Sure, getting someone like Pearce will cost something of value, but we should be aware that just because a number of people are playing catcher in this organization that it does not mean the club has actual depth at catcher.
In the end, Heim is probably worth the one win that Pearce will be worth. Pearce shores up the bench and gives a solid starting option against left handers. He makes for a more compelling platoon partner with Hyun Soo Kim, and those extra runs will help make up for problems with the starting rotation that Wade Miley may not be able to fix.
Matt Perez and Matt Kremnitzer addressed the Miley addition yesterday. My only addition would be to note that Miley has had a rather up and down season, but has strung together a series of adequate games. I believe Ryan Romano will dive into that for us on MASN. Miley certainly is not a pitcher you expect great things from, His main issue this year has been leaving the ball up a few times and getting it punished. The Orioles tend to emphasize pitching low in the zone and rising with high four seamers, so maybe Miley can escape the home run bug or at limit it to bases empty scenarios. One would think most teams disagree as the cost was rather low: an older prospect who one day hopes to be Wade Miley.
The second piece the Orioles added was a replacement of their earlier target: Melvin Upton, Jr. The Orioles were looking for a bat to deliver more production against left handed starters, which their end of season schedule is likely to be chock full of. The replacement is a name common to Orioles fans and was perhaps the player who strongly pushed the Orioles into a 2014 runaway season: Steve Pearce.
Pearce is a right handed hitter who, when on, is the living embodiment of a professional hitter and, when off, is the guy you want to shuttle back to Norfolk. 2015 saw the guy who should be in Norfolk, but who still inspired many of the writers here to advocate for him to be re-signed during our October blueprint series. Pearce wanted immensely to return to Baltimore and basically put himself in stasis until it was painfully obvious that the Orioles had zero interest in him. He decided to go home on a one year deal at 4.75 MM and, at age 33, be the oldest player on the Rays by two years.
Although, in all too typical fashion, Pearce has experienced some injuries this season, he has also rediscovered his 2014 glory. He is slashing 389/484/741 (227 wRC+) against southpaws and a more modest 280/351/440 (118 wRC+) against right handers. Although he played often in the outfield for Baltimore, Pearce's time in Tampa has been spent at first base, second based, designated hitter, and a splash at third base. In Pearce, the Orioles appear to have found all of their needs answered except for someone who can backup Adam Jones. All in all, he fits.
The cost for Pearce may at first glance not appear to be much, but it was more than Ariel Miranda, the pitcher exchanged for Wade Miley. The Orioles gave the Rays, arguably, their only true catcher in the system: Jonah Heim. Heim is known as a defensive first catcher whose bat has lagged, but who is still young enough for him to figure out enough offensively. Defensively, he is a gem. Good footwork, short arm path, short pop times, gets out in front of the plate with ease, solid receiving skills, and decent blocking. These are important skills to have as a catcher because history has shown that catchers who lack defensive adequacy almost never acquire it. It is a rule that a few organizations take as gospel in that they never draft defense-suspect catchers.
Heim is not an elite prospect. He profiles more as a backup catcher and is one who I am fairly confident will reach the majors and put in at least a few years. I have great doubt that Chance Sisco can figure out what he needs to do behind the plate and have similar concerns about Alex Murphy. Sisco, though, has enough of a bat that he might be able to hit enough for second base and has the athleticism for it. Though, like Schoop, he appears to lack the reflexes and agility to be a good defensive second baseman. Anyway, the point being that Heim was actually unique in the Orioles system: a likely MLBer who actually could catch. Sure, getting someone like Pearce will cost something of value, but we should be aware that just because a number of people are playing catcher in this organization that it does not mean the club has actual depth at catcher.
In the end, Heim is probably worth the one win that Pearce will be worth. Pearce shores up the bench and gives a solid starting option against left handers. He makes for a more compelling platoon partner with Hyun Soo Kim, and those extra runs will help make up for problems with the starting rotation that Wade Miley may not be able to fix.
13 October 2015
Blueprint For The 2016 Orioles (Option 5): Purchasing Innings In Bulk
As the four blueprint options posted before mine have been keen to point out and summarize, the Orioles' struggles in 2015 were primarily on the pitching and defense side of the game. The offense, meanwhile, scored more runs than it did on its way to an ALCS run in 2014 despite losing Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis.
Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter recognize this. In their press conference at Camden Yards the day after the season ended (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3), Duquette made multiple mentions of the need to strengthen the pitching staff.
I wanted to bury this in the lede, but it is too important to ignore - Wei-Yin Chen is a free agent. 191 1-3 innings pitched, totaling 2.8 fWAR in 2015, gone.
Anyhow, looking forward, the Orioles are on the verge of also losing Chris Davis, Steve Pearce and Matt Wieters from the lineup, a trio that created a total of 195 weighted runs (per wRC on Fangraphs). Cruz and Markakis, for whatever it's worth to you, created 188 runs together in 2014 going by that same metric.
The team is now left with a lineup of Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Jonathan Schoop and... six other guys.
Look, it would be antithetical for me to go against the grain here and suggest the organization look into trading Manny Machado this offseason. This blueprint will instead lay out a plan for the Orioles to push back into the playoffs in 2016 while hopefully not selling more draft picks to the Dodgers.
At a glance, the Orioles only have payroll obligations to three players entering 2016:
So back to the Chen ordeal.
He will be the first of three players to be granted a qualifying offer, joining Davis and Wieters. All three are Boras clients, thus making it a strong possibility that all three decline. Davis and Chen are no-brainers (both will receive longer length contracts with higher AAV) while Wieters' case depends on if he wants one year to reestablish his value. If so, he would clearly accept as no other team would go near $15.8 million for a catcher coming off a 1.0 fWAR season following a year off for Tommy John Surgery.
For all intents and purposes of this blueprint, I am going to presume Wieters declines and seeks a two or three year deal on the open market, at least.
That brings the Orioles three compensation picks in the 2016 draft. Please don't sell these, Dan. They provide tremendous value, I promise.
Next up are the arbitration eligible players.
Using the projected numbers from MLB Trade Rumors, these are the players that should be tendered for 2016 and what they will receive as compensation:
Gonzalez and Tillman are what they are. Semi-productive bounce back seasons make both of these deals still worthwhile, both costing less than the price of a win on the open market and both with the possibility of providing innings to a stunningly mediocre rotation. Let's also pray and hope Gonzalez's elbow stays in tact.
Flaherty is useful for when Hardy goes down with a Spring Training shoulder strain, and Brad Brach is primed to step in as Britton's setup man (alongside Dylan Bundy) with Tommy Hunter in Chicago (though not on the NLDS roster) and Darren O'Day likely pricing himself out of Baltimore with four straight very productive and healthy years since Andy MacPhail claimed him off of waivers mid-2011.
As an aside, O'Day seems primed to join the Nationals. The Washington bullpen will look back to Storen to close, Papelbon is likely off of that roster by Opening Day, and O'Day's wife works for the Fox News affiliate in DC. All that plus Ted Lerner likes to spend money.
That brings us to ten players at $69.3 million.
I don't expect Duquette to make even a single big splash in the free agent market, as his philosophy has always been to "build the team year round." He has tended to shy away from multi-year contracts completely, preferring to make non-headline minor league deals for AAA pitchers. But again, for the purpose of this exercise, here is what Duquette should do with the remaining $50 million or so:
Denard Span
I have to admit that I'm being a bit of a copycat here. The four blueprints prior to mine included Span, and while he wasn't initially on my radar, the idea has grown on me. A 2-4 win player on a three-year deal worth $43 million ($12 million in 2016, backloaded to $16 million in 2018) sounds solid with perhaps a touch of upside. If healthy ("if"), that locks down a corner outfield spot and allows the masses to continue the debate on if Dariel Alvarez can hit at the big league level (Adam Jones says yes).
Putting a solid center fielder into a corner spot generally makes for an above average defensive situation in theory, too.
With this deal in place, Span and Jones would be teammates for three years, and both of their deals would be set to expire in 2018. And also, paying Gerardo Parra any amount of dollars to come back just doesn't sound productive.
Jeff Samardzija
If Samardzija is looking for a multi-year contract rather than a one-year "show me" deal, four years for $74 million should get it done. With Cueto, Greinke and Price headlining the free agent pitcher market and Samardzija posting an ugly 4.96 ERA this past season, this deal would likely bring a decent amount of controversy.
With a walk rate well below his career average, no nominal rise in hard hit percentage, and three straight seasons of 200-plus innings, Samardzija could be a staple for a middling rotation that needs innings. The quality of those innings is, notwithstanding, to be determined.
Also, Samardzija pitched in the "no fans" game at Camden Yards this past summer, giving up seven earned runs and 10 hits over five innings. Take that for what you will.
Mike Leake
Let his hamstring heal up and hand Leake $67 million over five years. Only entering his age-28 season, Leake fits the mold as stated previously with Chen and Samardzija - he provides innings. 1083 2-3 of them over six seasons since his debut, to be exact. And check out the above chart - relatively consistent K/BB/HR rates over his career without any major outliers that cause concern.
Steve Pearce
One year, $4 million. The guy is familiar with the organization, and we all know how much this team thrives on culture. Plus, he was the Fan Choice bobblehead giveaway, so that has to count for something, right?
This move mostly acts as one of those Garrett Atkins/Derrek Lee type stopgaps while the organization reevaluates its first base solution long term. Christian Walker likely is not that answer. But Pearce/Flaherty for a year likely helps procrastinate that decision. It could be worse. I think.
Joe Blanton/Chad Billingsley/Aaron Harang/Shaun Marcum/Bud Norris/et al
Give a bunch of these types minor league deals with Spring Training invites and hope to shove them all in a juicer and squeeze 80-100 useful Major League innings out of them. Something like that.
-----
Dan Duquette is more than likely going to solve the pitching problems by trading for a couple of back of the rotation AAA arms, find a first baseman in the depths of the Atlantic League (Rafael Palmeiro, anyone?), a left fielder from the Canadian Junior National Team, and call it a day.
If the team wants to contend, it won't do so in its current situation if it "buys the bats and grows the arms," so to speak. The arms aren't there. Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson are both "maybes" while Tillman and Gonzalez are not as reliable as we once thought. Stabilizing the rotation this offseason allows for Duquette and Showalter to manipulate the roster otherwise how they please. Shaving cost here by simply hoping that J.A. Happ on a three-year deal will work out in your favor is a heavier risk that the organization cannot afford at this time.
Any amount of additions within the current budget structure do not make up for the lost contributions from the 2015 team, unfortunately. The farm system is depleted, Manny Machado is set for free agency in three years, and Kevin Gausman still can't throw a quality breaking ball. But I digress.
Here is the blueprint summary:
Option 1: Seeking A Cornerstone
Option 2: Building A Rotation
Option 3: Building Major League Depth And A Minor League System
Option 4: Well Rounded And Not Tied Down
Option 5: Purchasing Innings in Bulk
Option 6: Trying To Make Chicken Salad
Options 7a/b/c: Shepherd Seeks A Few Outside Consultants
Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter recognize this. In their press conference at Camden Yards the day after the season ended (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3), Duquette made multiple mentions of the need to strengthen the pitching staff.
 |
| Photo - MASNOrioles on Youtube |
Anyhow, looking forward, the Orioles are on the verge of also losing Chris Davis, Steve Pearce and Matt Wieters from the lineup, a trio that created a total of 195 weighted runs (per wRC on Fangraphs). Cruz and Markakis, for whatever it's worth to you, created 188 runs together in 2014 going by that same metric.
Gerardo Parra, while we're at it, totaled -0.8 fWAR over two months in an Orioles uniform. So it's tough to count him as a "loss" at this point.
The team is now left with a lineup of Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Jonathan Schoop and... six other guys.
Look, it would be antithetical for me to go against the grain here and suggest the organization look into trading Manny Machado this offseason. This blueprint will instead lay out a plan for the Orioles to push back into the playoffs in 2016 while hopefully not selling more draft picks to the Dodgers.
At a glance, the Orioles only have payroll obligations to three players entering 2016:
- Adam Jones - $16.3 million
- Ubaldo Jimenez - $13 million
- J.J. Hardy - $12.5 million
So back to the Chen ordeal.
He will be the first of three players to be granted a qualifying offer, joining Davis and Wieters. All three are Boras clients, thus making it a strong possibility that all three decline. Davis and Chen are no-brainers (both will receive longer length contracts with higher AAV) while Wieters' case depends on if he wants one year to reestablish his value. If so, he would clearly accept as no other team would go near $15.8 million for a catcher coming off a 1.0 fWAR season following a year off for Tommy John Surgery.
For all intents and purposes of this blueprint, I am going to presume Wieters declines and seeks a two or three year deal on the open market, at least.
That brings the Orioles three compensation picks in the 2016 draft. Please don't sell these, Dan. They provide tremendous value, I promise.
Next up are the arbitration eligible players.
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| Photo - Keith Allison |
- Nolan Reimold - $1 million
- Chris Tillman - $6.2 million
- Miguel Gonzalez - $4.9 million
- Ryan Flaherty - $1.5 million
- Zach Britton - $6.9 million
- Brad Brach - $1.1 million
- Manny Machado - $5.9 million
Gonzalez and Tillman are what they are. Semi-productive bounce back seasons make both of these deals still worthwhile, both costing less than the price of a win on the open market and both with the possibility of providing innings to a stunningly mediocre rotation. Let's also pray and hope Gonzalez's elbow stays in tact.
Flaherty is useful for when Hardy goes down with a Spring Training shoulder strain, and Brad Brach is primed to step in as Britton's setup man (alongside Dylan Bundy) with Tommy Hunter in Chicago (though not on the NLDS roster) and Darren O'Day likely pricing himself out of Baltimore with four straight very productive and healthy years since Andy MacPhail claimed him off of waivers mid-2011.
As an aside, O'Day seems primed to join the Nationals. The Washington bullpen will look back to Storen to close, Papelbon is likely off of that roster by Opening Day, and O'Day's wife works for the Fox News affiliate in DC. All that plus Ted Lerner likes to spend money.
That brings us to ten players at $69.3 million.
Free Agency
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| Photo - MASNOrioles on YouTube |
Denard Span
I have to admit that I'm being a bit of a copycat here. The four blueprints prior to mine included Span, and while he wasn't initially on my radar, the idea has grown on me. A 2-4 win player on a three-year deal worth $43 million ($12 million in 2016, backloaded to $16 million in 2018) sounds solid with perhaps a touch of upside. If healthy ("if"), that locks down a corner outfield spot and allows the masses to continue the debate on if Dariel Alvarez can hit at the big league level (Adam Jones says yes).
Putting a solid center fielder into a corner spot generally makes for an above average defensive situation in theory, too.
With this deal in place, Span and Jones would be teammates for three years, and both of their deals would be set to expire in 2018. And also, paying Gerardo Parra any amount of dollars to come back just doesn't sound productive.
Jeff Samardzija
If Samardzija is looking for a multi-year contract rather than a one-year "show me" deal, four years for $74 million should get it done. With Cueto, Greinke and Price headlining the free agent pitcher market and Samardzija posting an ugly 4.96 ERA this past season, this deal would likely bring a decent amount of controversy.
With a walk rate well below his career average, no nominal rise in hard hit percentage, and three straight seasons of 200-plus innings, Samardzija could be a staple for a middling rotation that needs innings. The quality of those innings is, notwithstanding, to be determined.
Also, Samardzija pitched in the "no fans" game at Camden Yards this past summer, giving up seven earned runs and 10 hits over five innings. Take that for what you will.
Mike Leake
Let his hamstring heal up and hand Leake $67 million over five years. Only entering his age-28 season, Leake fits the mold as stated previously with Chen and Samardzija - he provides innings. 1083 2-3 of them over six seasons since his debut, to be exact. And check out the above chart - relatively consistent K/BB/HR rates over his career without any major outliers that cause concern.
Steve Pearce
One year, $4 million. The guy is familiar with the organization, and we all know how much this team thrives on culture. Plus, he was the Fan Choice bobblehead giveaway, so that has to count for something, right?
This move mostly acts as one of those Garrett Atkins/Derrek Lee type stopgaps while the organization reevaluates its first base solution long term. Christian Walker likely is not that answer. But Pearce/Flaherty for a year likely helps procrastinate that decision. It could be worse. I think.
Joe Blanton/Chad Billingsley/Aaron Harang/Shaun Marcum/Bud Norris/et al
Give a bunch of these types minor league deals with Spring Training invites and hope to shove them all in a juicer and squeeze 80-100 useful Major League innings out of them. Something like that.
-----
Dan Duquette is more than likely going to solve the pitching problems by trading for a couple of back of the rotation AAA arms, find a first baseman in the depths of the Atlantic League (Rafael Palmeiro, anyone?), a left fielder from the Canadian Junior National Team, and call it a day.
If the team wants to contend, it won't do so in its current situation if it "buys the bats and grows the arms," so to speak. The arms aren't there. Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson are both "maybes" while Tillman and Gonzalez are not as reliable as we once thought. Stabilizing the rotation this offseason allows for Duquette and Showalter to manipulate the roster otherwise how they please. Shaving cost here by simply hoping that J.A. Happ on a three-year deal will work out in your favor is a heavier risk that the organization cannot afford at this time.
Any amount of additions within the current budget structure do not make up for the lost contributions from the 2015 team, unfortunately. The farm system is depleted, Manny Machado is set for free agency in three years, and Kevin Gausman still can't throw a quality breaking ball. But I digress.
Here is the blueprint summary:
- Denard Span - 3 years, $43 million
- Jeff Samadzija - 4 years, $75 million
- Mike Leake - 5 years, $75 million
- Steve Pearce - 1 year, $4 million
Option 1: Seeking A Cornerstone
Option 2: Building A Rotation
Option 3: Building Major League Depth And A Minor League System
Option 4: Well Rounded And Not Tied Down
Option 5: Purchasing Innings in Bulk
Option 6: Trying To Make Chicken Salad
Options 7a/b/c: Shepherd Seeks A Few Outside Consultants
09 October 2015
Blueprint For The 2016 Orioles (Option 3): Building Major League Depth And A Minor League System
On the surface, things look bleak for the Baltimore Orioles. The team finished a disappointing 81-81 one year following a trip to the ALCS. To make matters worse, there is a well-reported free agent exodus looming and the farm system is devoid of any impact talent ready to help the major league team in 2016. The challenge is to find a way to keep the major league team competitive, while rebuilding the farm system with impact talent. With that in mind, I’m proposing to fill the major league team with depth by signing productive, yet unspectacular free agents that do not have draft pick compensation attached to them.
According to Cot’s Contracts, the Orioles are committed to spending $41.83 million in 2016, $43.83 million in 2017, $19.33 million in 2018, and nothing after that. These figures don’t include arbitration raises and minimum salary requirements, but assuming a $120 million payroll in 2016 (and subsequent increases to keep up with inflation), the Orioles do have money to spend, but they’ll need to spend it wisely.
Non-Tendered Players
Of the arbitration eligible players on the current roster, I would not tender Nolan Reimold or Paul Janish a contract (MLB Trade Rumors estimates their arbitration figures to be at $1 million and $700K, respectively). Their skill sets can typically be found on cheaper (minor league) deals.
Qualifying Offers
Qualifying offers (estimated to be $16.4 million in 2016) should be given to Chris Davis, Wei-Yin Chen, and Matt Wieters. I’d expect all three to decline, although I suppose there is a possibility that Wieters accepts, which could throw a wrench into my plans. Worst-case scenario, the Orioles have a catcher who provides league average offense (100 wRC+ in 2015) with above average defense (even with a weakened throwing arm) for one year at $16.4 million. That’s not a bad thing.
2016 Roster
Using Cot’s Contracts and MLB Trade Rumors assumptions on arbitration and minimum salaries, here’s who I believe should return in 2016 and how much money they’ll be making in 2016.
What we’re left with are vacancies at starting pitcher, first base, both corner outfield spots, a bullpen spot, and two bench spots. Oh, and approximately $44.7 million to fill them.
Infield
Manny Machado is awesome and now that he’s entering his arbitration years, he’s a prime candidate to sign to a long-term deal. However, according to this tidbit earlier this week, it doesn’t seem to be on the offseason agenda, so we'll stick with the MLBTR arbitration number for now.
As for first base, I’m with both Ryan P. and Ryan R. that Chris Davis should be allowed to seek employment elsewhere. I’d fill that hole with Mike Napoli on a 1 year, $5.25 million contract. Napoli had a slow start to his year, but finished with a .224/.324/.410 batting line in 2015 and a 98 wRC+ (which looks a lot like Chris Davis’ 2014 line). For someone who doesn’t do anything well but hit, that’s not great, but with a career low BABIP, there is a good chance he returns to his career numbers (125 wRC+) with some better luck. If he falters, the Orioles can call up Christian Walker or put in Steve Pearce (more on him later).
Outfield
Obviously, the two corner outfield spots were a problem last year. Jason Heyward would be the ideal fit (and worth giving up a draft pick), but a 26 year old free agent outfielder who has been worth more than 11 fWAR the past two years is an ideal fit for 30 teams, so I’m going to assume the Orioles engage him, but get outbid. With that in mind, I’m hopping on board the Denard Span bandwagon and signing him to a 3 year, $42 million contract with a 4th year team option ($14 million annually). As both Ryan’s previously pointed out, his outstanding defense is an asset to a starting rotation that is not overpowering and he’s been about 20% better than the league average hitter over the last two years according to wRC+. He also provides center-field insurance for an Adam Jones injury and gives the lineup a much-needed left-handed bat. His injury filled 2015 does cause some concern, but it should also keep him from receiving a qualifying offer.
As for the other outfield corner, I’d suggest a platoon between Gerardo Parra and the aforementioned Pearce. I’d re-sign Pearce to a 2 year, $12 million contract to play left field against left-handed pitching and anywhere else when the matchup is favorable. I like Pearce’s versatility (he even showed competency at second base in 2015), and while the proposed offer may end up being light, I think that could get it done considering the opportunity for playing time. Bringing back Gerardo Parra on a 3 year, $24 million contract would fill the strong side of the platoon. He had a strange 2015, where his power spiked and his defense cratered, and I’d expect both to return closer to his career norms moving forward. Although 2015 was an outlier for Parra, he’s always been a decent hitter against right-handers (career 102 wRC+), which is the only type of pitcher he should be facing.
Pitching Staff
The Orioles finished the 2015 season with the best bullpen in the majors according to fWAR. I agree that Baltimore should move on from O’Day, but I’m not giving him a qualifying offer. I’m also tendering Brian Matusz a contract, but looking to deal him, although the return may not be worth it. One thing you’ll see in the first figure is the inclusion of Dylan Bundy in the bullpen. It’s important to note that Bundy is out of options and unless he’s on the DL, he WILL be on the roster in some capacity or the team will absolutely lose him to waivers. A role as the long man in the bullpen will allow him to keep his innings in check, while getting him prepared for a starting job late 2016 and/or 2017. I’m not one to pay free agent dollars for bullpen help, so the final vacancy can be filled with any combination of players making minimum salary such as Chaz Roe, Oliver Drake, Jason Garcia, etc.
As for the starting rotation, I’d go with those 4 above to start the season, even if (barring a breakout year from Gausman) there isn’t an ace in there. The Orioles have a number of options to fill out the number 5 spot (Tyler Wilson, Mike Wright, Tim Berry, or even Bundy), but I’d rather bring in a free agent and let those 3 or 4 be my emergency starters once one (or more) of the starting pitchers becomes injured or ineffective. I’ll keep with the theme of looking for someone who isn’t attached to a draft pick and sign…
J.A. Happ. Here me out. I assumed the same thing for David Price as I did for Jason Heyward: great fit, worth a draft pick, is not coming to Baltimore. I also heavily considered Johnny Cueto, but became nervous about the contract required to get him (even a probable low estimate of 6 years and $133 million gave me pause), the health of his elbow, and the fact that he throws a cutter nearly 20% of the time (a current “no-no” in the organization).
Happ may not be a sexy addition to the starting rotation, but he’s dependable, left-handed (something the starting rotation lacks), and he’s been better lately. Happ finished the year with a 3.61 ERA and a 3.41 FIP, which was worth 3.3 fWAR. Amazingly, 2.1 of those wins came with the Pirates in only 63.1 innings. His 2015 results don’t appear to be smoke and mirrors, as his LOB% is in line with his career and his BABIP was actually 20 points higher. Additionally, Happ’s throwing his fastball harder and he’s getting more groundballs than he did earlier in his career.
Happ isn’t the ace that most people want, but he’s a quality and consistent starter. A good comp for Happ’s contract is Jason Vargas’ 4 year, $32 million contract with Kansas City. Since Happ will be 2 years older than Vargas at the time he hits free agency, I think a 2 year, $16 million contract with a 3rd year team option is reasonable.
Bench
There were originally two bench spots to fill, but one of those spots will be occupied by Pearce or Parra (depending on the pitching matchup). Let’s fill the other bench spot by taking a flyer on Matt Joyce for 1 year and $2 million. Joyce is coming off a terrible season, but has a career 112 wRC+ and has surprisingly been an average defender in left over the course of his career (3 DRS in 2,259.2 innings) if he’s needed. Having said that, he should NEVER face a left-handed pitcher and shouldn’t see time anywhere else in the field (other than DH).
Final Tally
According to Cot’s Contracts, the Orioles are committed to spending $41.83 million in 2016, $43.83 million in 2017, $19.33 million in 2018, and nothing after that. These figures don’t include arbitration raises and minimum salary requirements, but assuming a $120 million payroll in 2016 (and subsequent increases to keep up with inflation), the Orioles do have money to spend, but they’ll need to spend it wisely.
Non-Tendered Players
Of the arbitration eligible players on the current roster, I would not tender Nolan Reimold or Paul Janish a contract (MLB Trade Rumors estimates their arbitration figures to be at $1 million and $700K, respectively). Their skill sets can typically be found on cheaper (minor league) deals.
Qualifying Offers
Qualifying offers (estimated to be $16.4 million in 2016) should be given to Chris Davis, Wei-Yin Chen, and Matt Wieters. I’d expect all three to decline, although I suppose there is a possibility that Wieters accepts, which could throw a wrench into my plans. Worst-case scenario, the Orioles have a catcher who provides league average offense (100 wRC+ in 2015) with above average defense (even with a weakened throwing arm) for one year at $16.4 million. That’s not a bad thing.
2016 Roster
Using Cot’s Contracts and MLB Trade Rumors assumptions on arbitration and minimum salaries, here’s who I believe should return in 2016 and how much money they’ll be making in 2016.
What we’re left with are vacancies at starting pitcher, first base, both corner outfield spots, a bullpen spot, and two bench spots. Oh, and approximately $44.7 million to fill them.
Infield
Manny Machado is awesome and now that he’s entering his arbitration years, he’s a prime candidate to sign to a long-term deal. However, according to this tidbit earlier this week, it doesn’t seem to be on the offseason agenda, so we'll stick with the MLBTR arbitration number for now.
Duquette said Machado long-term extension is something that can be discussed, but there are more higher priorities this offseason. #orioles
— Eduardo A. Encina (@EddieInTheYard) October 5, 2015
If J.J. Hardy can physically play shortstop, he needs to be there. His trade value is non-existent at the moment, so the Orioles can only play him (and hope he produces, which helps the team AND his trade value) or package him with every tradeable draft pick they have for someone to take his contract off their hands. Having said that, Baltimore may want to add some minor league depth at SS in case Hardy is injured, ineffective, or both.As for first base, I’m with both Ryan P. and Ryan R. that Chris Davis should be allowed to seek employment elsewhere. I’d fill that hole with Mike Napoli on a 1 year, $5.25 million contract. Napoli had a slow start to his year, but finished with a .224/.324/.410 batting line in 2015 and a 98 wRC+ (which looks a lot like Chris Davis’ 2014 line). For someone who doesn’t do anything well but hit, that’s not great, but with a career low BABIP, there is a good chance he returns to his career numbers (125 wRC+) with some better luck. If he falters, the Orioles can call up Christian Walker or put in Steve Pearce (more on him later).
Outfield
Obviously, the two corner outfield spots were a problem last year. Jason Heyward would be the ideal fit (and worth giving up a draft pick), but a 26 year old free agent outfielder who has been worth more than 11 fWAR the past two years is an ideal fit for 30 teams, so I’m going to assume the Orioles engage him, but get outbid. With that in mind, I’m hopping on board the Denard Span bandwagon and signing him to a 3 year, $42 million contract with a 4th year team option ($14 million annually). As both Ryan’s previously pointed out, his outstanding defense is an asset to a starting rotation that is not overpowering and he’s been about 20% better than the league average hitter over the last two years according to wRC+. He also provides center-field insurance for an Adam Jones injury and gives the lineup a much-needed left-handed bat. His injury filled 2015 does cause some concern, but it should also keep him from receiving a qualifying offer.
As for the other outfield corner, I’d suggest a platoon between Gerardo Parra and the aforementioned Pearce. I’d re-sign Pearce to a 2 year, $12 million contract to play left field against left-handed pitching and anywhere else when the matchup is favorable. I like Pearce’s versatility (he even showed competency at second base in 2015), and while the proposed offer may end up being light, I think that could get it done considering the opportunity for playing time. Bringing back Gerardo Parra on a 3 year, $24 million contract would fill the strong side of the platoon. He had a strange 2015, where his power spiked and his defense cratered, and I’d expect both to return closer to his career norms moving forward. Although 2015 was an outlier for Parra, he’s always been a decent hitter against right-handers (career 102 wRC+), which is the only type of pitcher he should be facing.
Pitching Staff
The Orioles finished the 2015 season with the best bullpen in the majors according to fWAR. I agree that Baltimore should move on from O’Day, but I’m not giving him a qualifying offer. I’m also tendering Brian Matusz a contract, but looking to deal him, although the return may not be worth it. One thing you’ll see in the first figure is the inclusion of Dylan Bundy in the bullpen. It’s important to note that Bundy is out of options and unless he’s on the DL, he WILL be on the roster in some capacity or the team will absolutely lose him to waivers. A role as the long man in the bullpen will allow him to keep his innings in check, while getting him prepared for a starting job late 2016 and/or 2017. I’m not one to pay free agent dollars for bullpen help, so the final vacancy can be filled with any combination of players making minimum salary such as Chaz Roe, Oliver Drake, Jason Garcia, etc.
As for the starting rotation, I’d go with those 4 above to start the season, even if (barring a breakout year from Gausman) there isn’t an ace in there. The Orioles have a number of options to fill out the number 5 spot (Tyler Wilson, Mike Wright, Tim Berry, or even Bundy), but I’d rather bring in a free agent and let those 3 or 4 be my emergency starters once one (or more) of the starting pitchers becomes injured or ineffective. I’ll keep with the theme of looking for someone who isn’t attached to a draft pick and sign…
J.A. Happ. Here me out. I assumed the same thing for David Price as I did for Jason Heyward: great fit, worth a draft pick, is not coming to Baltimore. I also heavily considered Johnny Cueto, but became nervous about the contract required to get him (even a probable low estimate of 6 years and $133 million gave me pause), the health of his elbow, and the fact that he throws a cutter nearly 20% of the time (a current “no-no” in the organization).
Happ may not be a sexy addition to the starting rotation, but he’s dependable, left-handed (something the starting rotation lacks), and he’s been better lately. Happ finished the year with a 3.61 ERA and a 3.41 FIP, which was worth 3.3 fWAR. Amazingly, 2.1 of those wins came with the Pirates in only 63.1 innings. His 2015 results don’t appear to be smoke and mirrors, as his LOB% is in line with his career and his BABIP was actually 20 points higher. Additionally, Happ’s throwing his fastball harder and he’s getting more groundballs than he did earlier in his career.
Happ isn’t the ace that most people want, but he’s a quality and consistent starter. A good comp for Happ’s contract is Jason Vargas’ 4 year, $32 million contract with Kansas City. Since Happ will be 2 years older than Vargas at the time he hits free agency, I think a 2 year, $16 million contract with a 3rd year team option is reasonable.
Bench
There were originally two bench spots to fill, but one of those spots will be occupied by Pearce or Parra (depending on the pitching matchup). Let’s fill the other bench spot by taking a flyer on Matt Joyce for 1 year and $2 million. Joyce is coming off a terrible season, but has a career 112 wRC+ and has surprisingly been an average defender in left over the course of his career (3 DRS in 2,259.2 innings) if he’s needed. Having said that, he should NEVER face a left-handed pitcher and shouldn’t see time anywhere else in the field (other than DH).
Final Tally
- LHP J.A. Happ – 3 years, $24 million ($8 million annually, 3rd year an option)
- OF Denard Span – 4 years, $56 million ($14 million annually, 4th year an option)
- OF Gerardo Parra – 3 years, $24 million ($8 million annually)
- UTIL Steve Pearce – 2 years, $12 million ($6 million annually)
- 1B/DH Mike Napoli – 1 year, $5.25 million
- OF/DH Matt Joyce – 1 year, $2 million
This gives the Orioles a full roster and a total salary commitment of $119.56 million. Despite only the original $41 million committed in 2016 and a $120 million budget, the Orioles don’t have the finances to pay for superstar level players due to the number of roster holes and arbitration eligible players. This strategy allows them to build depth in the field and on the mound with productive, if unspectacular players, while also keeping their early round draft picks while adding 3 additional selections due to the departures of Davis, Chen, and Wieters. A mid-market team like Baltimore needs to have a strong farm system in order to compete annually. Signing players without draft pick compensation attached to them helps accomplish that.
--------------------------------
Links to Previously Published Options
Option 1: Seeking A Cornerstone
Option 2: Building A Rotation
Option 3: Building Major League Depth And A Minor League System
Option 4: Well Rounded And Not Tied Down
Option 5: Purchasing Innings in Bulk
Option 6: Trying To Make Chicken Salad
Options 7a/b/c: Shepherd Seeks A Few Outside Consultants
--------------------------------
Links to Previously Published Options
Option 1: Seeking A Cornerstone
Option 2: Building A Rotation
Option 3: Building Major League Depth And A Minor League System
Option 4: Well Rounded And Not Tied Down
Option 5: Purchasing Innings in Bulk
Option 6: Trying To Make Chicken Salad
Options 7a/b/c: Shepherd Seeks A Few Outside Consultants
17 July 2015
Don't Waver: The Orioles Made The Right Move With Markakis
Not counting J.J. Hardy's struggles at the plate this season, the most obvious spot to blame for the Orioles' scattered offensive issues is corner outfield. The Orioles have been shuffling between Alejandro De Aza, Steve Pearce, Travis Snider, Delmon Young, David Lough, Nolan Reimold, Chris Parmelee, and now Chris Davis. De Aza (traded) and Young (designated for assignment) are gone, but the rest remain. It seems unlikely that the Orioles will be able to carry this many outfielders for the rest of the season, and it's also probable that they'll continue to pursue trade options.
That brings us to Wednesday's Baltimore Sun column by Dan Connolly. In it, Connolly remarks on the team's non-Adam Jones outfield issues, and he also includes intriguing quotes from Buck Showalter and Jones on dealing with the revolving door of outfielders. Read the article and see what you think.
Let's get this out of the way first, because not much has changed on the Nick Markakis/Nelson Cruz front. It's common for writers and fans alike to look back and say, hey, the Orioles should have brought back Markakis and Cruz (they won the American League East last year! etc.). Both topics have been covered at Camden Depot multiple times, the most recent being on Cruz. In his column, Connolly writes, "Besides having to replace their leadership and potential offensive production, the Orioles have missed a duo that started a combined 217 games in the corner-outfield spots last year. . . . Things, it now can be said, have not worked out as planned."
Obviously the Orioles figured most, if not all, of their corner outfielders would have performed better offensively. And it's hard to look at how Cruz hit in the first half and wonder how that would have helped this year's Orioles.
Still, there's this:
2014: 4.35 runs per game (5th in AL)
2015: 4.40 runs per game (4th)
Anyway, let's focus on Markakis. Do you think the Orioles have missed Markakis's leadership or clubhouse chemistry factor? Perhaps you're right. It's also impossible to prove, just like saying the lack of Jonathan Schoop's "easy smile and playful fun nature" in any way contributed to the O's struggles earlier in the season. The "missing leadership" rationale is frequently applied to fit a narrative when nothing otherwise will.
Instead, when focusing on tangible evidence of Markakis's play in recent years and the first portion of this season, it's more of the same. As Connolly notes, the Orioles were concerned about Markakis requiring offseason neck surgery. And maybe his recovery from that injury has played a part in his power outage.
2012: 284 feet
2013: 271
2014: 268
2015: 260
Now let's check out some batted ball data from FanGraphs. Markakis is not hitting the ball as hard...
2012: 32.6 Hard%
2013: 28.8
2014: 27.3
2015: 27.1
... or pulling it:
2012: 34.2 Pull%
2013: 32.9
2014: 31.4
2015: 29.9
And that's led to an increase in him hitting the ball on the ground:
2012: 41.8 GB%
2013: 46.6
2014: 45.9
2015: 51.4
If Markakis were a faster runner and able to leg out more infield hits, that might be less of an issue. But speed is not part of his game. It's probably a bit fluky that he doesn't have at least one home run, especially since he's hit 20 doubles. Regardless, his .353 slugging percentage would be the worst of his career.
Also, his .381 on-base percentage is very good, and it would be his best mark since 2008. But he's been fortunate on balls in play (.345 BABIP; .317 career mark), and it's unlikely he'll be able to carry on with a walk percentage near 12% (career around 9%), especially since he's seeing the highest percentage of pitches in the strike zone (for him) since 2010 (51.2%). He's not able to do as much damage with one swing, and pitchers are starting to go after him more.
Markakis has a wRC+ of 108, and that would have helped the Orioles somewhat. It's higher than Snider (94), Pearce (89), De Aza (70), and Lough (70). Parmelee and Reimold have hit better, though in much smaller samples. But both UZR and DRS have the O's group of right fielders better defensively than Braves' right fielders (nearly all defensive innings belonging to Markakis):
Orioles RF: +0.6 UZR, +4 DRS
Braves RF: -0.1 UZR, -2 DRS
And remember, the Braves still owe Markakis $31.5 million over the next three seasons.
This team has flaws, but it's still in the playoff race. And yes, the corner outfield plan hasn't worked out so far. The Chris Davis in right field experiment is in full swing, and if he somehow manages to be a mediocre defender, it could work. But thanks to improvements from other players (Manny Machado and Jimmy Paredes, in particular), the O's offense has been just fine (frustrating at times, but fine). Meanwhile, the team's offseason indecision on the starting rotation has probably hurt the team more (not opening a spot for Kevin Gausman) than not bringing Markakis back. But sometimes it's hard to let go.
That brings us to Wednesday's Baltimore Sun column by Dan Connolly. In it, Connolly remarks on the team's non-Adam Jones outfield issues, and he also includes intriguing quotes from Buck Showalter and Jones on dealing with the revolving door of outfielders. Read the article and see what you think.
Let's get this out of the way first, because not much has changed on the Nick Markakis/Nelson Cruz front. It's common for writers and fans alike to look back and say, hey, the Orioles should have brought back Markakis and Cruz (they won the American League East last year! etc.). Both topics have been covered at Camden Depot multiple times, the most recent being on Cruz. In his column, Connolly writes, "Besides having to replace their leadership and potential offensive production, the Orioles have missed a duo that started a combined 217 games in the corner-outfield spots last year. . . . Things, it now can be said, have not worked out as planned."
Obviously the Orioles figured most, if not all, of their corner outfielders would have performed better offensively. And it's hard to look at how Cruz hit in the first half and wonder how that would have helped this year's Orioles.
Still, there's this:
2014: 4.35 runs per game (5th in AL)
2015: 4.40 runs per game (4th)
Anyway, let's focus on Markakis. Do you think the Orioles have missed Markakis's leadership or clubhouse chemistry factor? Perhaps you're right. It's also impossible to prove, just like saying the lack of Jonathan Schoop's "easy smile and playful fun nature" in any way contributed to the O's struggles earlier in the season. The "missing leadership" rationale is frequently applied to fit a narrative when nothing otherwise will.
Instead, when focusing on tangible evidence of Markakis's play in recent years and the first portion of this season, it's more of the same. As Connolly notes, the Orioles were concerned about Markakis requiring offseason neck surgery. And maybe his recovery from that injury has played a part in his power outage.
— Jon Shepherd (@jsbearr) July 13, 2015
Markakis could need more time to fully recover. Watching him in his prime was a joy, and it would be wonderful if he returned to form. But his dwindling power has been a concern for a few years now. According to data from Baseball Heat Maps, here are Markakis's average fly ball distances since 2012:2012: 284 feet
2013: 271
2014: 268
2015: 260
Now let's check out some batted ball data from FanGraphs. Markakis is not hitting the ball as hard...
2012: 32.6 Hard%
2013: 28.8
2014: 27.3
2015: 27.1
... or pulling it:
2012: 34.2 Pull%
2013: 32.9
2014: 31.4
2015: 29.9
And that's led to an increase in him hitting the ball on the ground:
2012: 41.8 GB%
2013: 46.6
2014: 45.9
2015: 51.4
If Markakis were a faster runner and able to leg out more infield hits, that might be less of an issue. But speed is not part of his game. It's probably a bit fluky that he doesn't have at least one home run, especially since he's hit 20 doubles. Regardless, his .353 slugging percentage would be the worst of his career.
Also, his .381 on-base percentage is very good, and it would be his best mark since 2008. But he's been fortunate on balls in play (.345 BABIP; .317 career mark), and it's unlikely he'll be able to carry on with a walk percentage near 12% (career around 9%), especially since he's seeing the highest percentage of pitches in the strike zone (for him) since 2010 (51.2%). He's not able to do as much damage with one swing, and pitchers are starting to go after him more.
Markakis has a wRC+ of 108, and that would have helped the Orioles somewhat. It's higher than Snider (94), Pearce (89), De Aza (70), and Lough (70). Parmelee and Reimold have hit better, though in much smaller samples. But both UZR and DRS have the O's group of right fielders better defensively than Braves' right fielders (nearly all defensive innings belonging to Markakis):
Orioles RF: +0.6 UZR, +4 DRS
Braves RF: -0.1 UZR, -2 DRS
And remember, the Braves still owe Markakis $31.5 million over the next three seasons.
This team has flaws, but it's still in the playoff race. And yes, the corner outfield plan hasn't worked out so far. The Chris Davis in right field experiment is in full swing, and if he somehow manages to be a mediocre defender, it could work. But thanks to improvements from other players (Manny Machado and Jimmy Paredes, in particular), the O's offense has been just fine (frustrating at times, but fine). Meanwhile, the team's offseason indecision on the starting rotation has probably hurt the team more (not opening a spot for Kevin Gausman) than not bringing Markakis back. But sometimes it's hard to let go.
08 June 2015
The Camden Highball (Episode 13): The Rosters They Are a-Movin'
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| I swear there's a good reason for this picture... you'll have to listen to find out why (photo via Keith Allison) |
This week's musical guest is the band jason., performing the song "Rarities". They have been on indefinite hiatus so long that the only place to find their music is on their myspace page.
Camden Highball (Episode 13): The Rosters They Are a-Movin'
0:00 - jason. - "Rarities"
3:58 - Welcome to Episode 13
5:18 - Roster Moving!
11:10 - Revisiting the Brian Matusz Suspension
14:15 - Jeff Long joins the show
15:22 - Oliver Drake throws a pretty interesting pitch
21:46 - Can Steve Pearce bounce back?
28:20 - Manny Machado as 2015 MVP?
38:20 - Outtakes (pre-planning a Logan Forsythe centric episode)
27 May 2015
Outfield Reinforcements Won't Be Coming From the Minors
The play of Baltimore’s corner outfielders has been a hot topic lately. Last week, our own Matt Kremnitzer wrote about their struggles in an article for MASN, while Matt Perez followed that up with a piece that looked at potentially swapping Bud Norris and Tommy Hunter for the Red Sox's Shane Victorino. Yes, the non-Adam Jones outfielders currently on the Orioles roster are not performing, both offensively and defensively. Here’s how they stack up against the rest of the league in terms of wRC+ and DRS.
The table below shows how the options at Norfolk are performing so far in 2015.
As you can see, no one is exactly lighting the world on fire down there, except for maybe Parmelee, and he’s not even listed as an outfielder on the Orioles website. As Matt Kremnitzer noted, it’s not as if Parmelee would even be an upgrade, as he owns a career 97 wRC+ in the major leagues (901 PAs) and has been -7 DRS in just over 1,050 innings in the outfield.
Let’s take a look at how the outfielders in Bowie are hitting.
The stat lines of these players look slightly better, but they’re also another level further from the major leagues. Quincy Latimore is a former Pirates prospect who is now 26 years old and has never played above AA. Glynn Davis is having a promising season, but he is only in his first full year of AA, and is not considered a prospect (MLB.com left him off their top 30 list prior to the season). The best of this bunch is Mike Yastrzemski, who was ranked the 10th best prospect in the Orioles system before the season by both Baseball Prospectus and MLB.com (Baseball America had him 9th and he didn’t make the cut on Keith Law’s list). Still, both MLB.com and BP see Yastrzemski as a slightly below average player at his peak, so it’s unlikely he’d be a difference maker, especially in 2015.
Purchasing the contract of one of the players not on the 40-man roster shouldn’t be an obstacle. But if that’s the route the team decides to take, they’ll need to clear a spot to make room for Matt Wieters when he comes off the 60-day disabled list (he’s currently rehabbing in Bowie). At that point, they’ll risk losing whoever they remove from the 40-man roster to any of the other 29 teams on waivers.
With no help down in the minors and the trade market still in its earliest stages of development, the Orioles best option in the corner outfield positions may be to just stand pat. The return of Jonathan Schoop and/or Ryan Flaherty should allow Steve Pearce to return to an outfield position, where hopefully his batted ball luck will regress in the positive direction, providing some much needed production. Sometimes the best course of action one can take is to wait.
OK, so they actually haven’t been playing bad defense, it just seems like it after seeing Delmon Young, Alejandro De Aza, and Travis Snider out there on a regular basis. Matt Perez’s suggestion to trade for Victorino is certainly an interesting one. And while we’re almost 2 months into the 2015 season, it’s probably a little too early to expect any sort of trade that would bring back a major upgrade to the ballclub in one of the outfield corners. Furthermore, despite rumblings that Chris Parmelee may be called up from AAA to provide some offense in the outfield, an upgrade is unlikely to be found in the Orioles minor league system. Let’s take a look at what’s available.
Outfielders on the 40-Man Roster
All of them are actually already on the major league roster. I could end this section right there, but that would be lazy. Just because a player isn’t listed as an outfielder on the 40-man roster doesn’t mean that he can’t play the outfield. However, even taking that broader view, that still doesn’t leave the team with many options. Other than the obvious candidates, there is Jimmy Paredes and Henry Urrutia. We know that Paredes can hit (at least he has this year), but he’s only logged just over 400 innings in the outfield during his major league career, producing -4 DRS (-7.7 UZR/150). As for Urrutia, I don’t think Baltimore views him as an outfield option anymore (on the 40-man roster, he’s listed as a DH).
Outfielders Not on the 40-Man RosterOutfielders on the 40-Man Roster
All of them are actually already on the major league roster. I could end this section right there, but that would be lazy. Just because a player isn’t listed as an outfielder on the 40-man roster doesn’t mean that he can’t play the outfield. However, even taking that broader view, that still doesn’t leave the team with many options. Other than the obvious candidates, there is Jimmy Paredes and Henry Urrutia. We know that Paredes can hit (at least he has this year), but he’s only logged just over 400 innings in the outfield during his major league career, producing -4 DRS (-7.7 UZR/150). As for Urrutia, I don’t think Baltimore views him as an outfield option anymore (on the 40-man roster, he’s listed as a DH).
The table below shows how the options at Norfolk are performing so far in 2015.
As you can see, no one is exactly lighting the world on fire down there, except for maybe Parmelee, and he’s not even listed as an outfielder on the Orioles website. As Matt Kremnitzer noted, it’s not as if Parmelee would even be an upgrade, as he owns a career 97 wRC+ in the major leagues (901 PAs) and has been -7 DRS in just over 1,050 innings in the outfield.
Let’s take a look at how the outfielders in Bowie are hitting.
The stat lines of these players look slightly better, but they’re also another level further from the major leagues. Quincy Latimore is a former Pirates prospect who is now 26 years old and has never played above AA. Glynn Davis is having a promising season, but he is only in his first full year of AA, and is not considered a prospect (MLB.com left him off their top 30 list prior to the season). The best of this bunch is Mike Yastrzemski, who was ranked the 10th best prospect in the Orioles system before the season by both Baseball Prospectus and MLB.com (Baseball America had him 9th and he didn’t make the cut on Keith Law’s list). Still, both MLB.com and BP see Yastrzemski as a slightly below average player at his peak, so it’s unlikely he’d be a difference maker, especially in 2015.
Purchasing the contract of one of the players not on the 40-man roster shouldn’t be an obstacle. But if that’s the route the team decides to take, they’ll need to clear a spot to make room for Matt Wieters when he comes off the 60-day disabled list (he’s currently rehabbing in Bowie). At that point, they’ll risk losing whoever they remove from the 40-man roster to any of the other 29 teams on waivers.
With no help down in the minors and the trade market still in its earliest stages of development, the Orioles best option in the corner outfield positions may be to just stand pat. The return of Jonathan Schoop and/or Ryan Flaherty should allow Steve Pearce to return to an outfield position, where hopefully his batted ball luck will regress in the positive direction, providing some much needed production. Sometimes the best course of action one can take is to wait.
12 May 2015
The Camden Highball (Episode 10): "That's Not Good"
This week's episode of the Camden Highball clocks in at nearly 45 minutes (don't worry, Pat and Nate both got paid overtime). In this installment of the podcast, we talk with Camden Depot and Beyond the Box Score's Ryan Romano about Bud Norris' 2015 season (hint, see the episode title) and we get his interesting thought on Chris Tillman, and why he may be potentially having trouble missing the strike zone. We also discuss some thoughts on Steve Pearce as a super utility player and Jimmy Paredes (or as some have called him, the modern day Babe Ruth). Plus some quick hits on Ryan Lavarnway and Kevin Gausman.
This week also marks the first time since the podcast has been rebooted that we will begin the show featuring a song from a local artist. This week's artist is Brad Engler. You can find his music on his website, Spotify, or purchase his 3-song EP, "From the Trees" on iTunes (search: "Brad Engler"). He also writes about baseball on the excellent Phillies blog, Crashburn Alley.
Camden Highball (Episode 10): "That's Not Good"
0:00 - Brad Engler - "Lean Into Me"
4:09 - Pat resists talking about the Washington Capitals
6:32 - Steve Pearce: Super Utility Player?
14:27 - Jimmy Paredes is a hitting machine
21:09 - Ryan Lavarnway instead of Steve Clevenger?
23:45 - Kevin Gausman to AAA
25:54 - Ryan Romano joins the show
27:25 - Ryan talks about Bud Norris' "interesting" start
33:16 - Ryan's thoughts on Chris Tillman
38:11 - Ryan gets positive with Jimmy Paredes and Steve Pearce
20 April 2015
The Camden Highball (Episode 8): Get to Know Your Orioles Prospects
On this week's episode of the Camden Highball, Pat and Nate talk about Ubaldo's ejection, Pablo Sandoval's techniques for breaking up the double play, and some small sample size issues for the Baltimore offense. Following that discussion, they talk to Tucker Blair of the Baseball Prospectus prospect team to get his thoughts on the Orioles minor league system, which players he likes more (or less) than the general consensus, what he sees so far this year in Dylan Bundy, and what happens when you don't wear the proper scouting attire to a game.
Camden Highball (Episode 8): Get to Know Your Orioles Prospects
1:30 - Ubaldo's ejection
4:40 - Schoop hits the DL
7:50 - Small Sample Sizing the offense
14:07 - BP's Tucker Blair joins the show
15:22 - Overall state of the Orioles minor league system
16:53 - Thoughts on Dylan Bundy
23:03 - Christian Walker as the 2016 first baseman?
25:48 - Under the radar Orioles prospect
28:42 - Over-hyped Orioles prospect
29:44 - Quick talk on Hunter Harvey
Camden Highball (Episode 8): Get to Know Your Orioles Prospects
1:30 - Ubaldo's ejection
4:40 - Schoop hits the DL
7:50 - Small Sample Sizing the offense
14:07 - BP's Tucker Blair joins the show
15:22 - Overall state of the Orioles minor league system
16:53 - Thoughts on Dylan Bundy
23:03 - Christian Walker as the 2016 first baseman?
25:48 - Under the radar Orioles prospect
28:42 - Over-hyped Orioles prospect
29:44 - Quick talk on Hunter Harvey
09 February 2015
What Does Travis Snider Bring to the Orioles?
Editor's note: I recently answered some questions for a 2015 team preview of the Orioles for Razzball. It doesn't include anything specific about Travis Snider, and we are still about two months away from opening day, but you might find it interesting. Look out for at least one or two more team previews as we get closer to the beginning of the season. Thanks.
It would an oversimplification to think the Orioles chose just Travis Snider over Nick Markakis. Really, the O's chose Snider, Steve Pearce, and financial flexibility over Markakis. Snider won't be filling the Markakis role. He won't be playing every game in right field, but he will be filling in more at designated hitter and if needed could see some innings in left field. But Snider will play a lot in right field, he is left handed, and he is on the Orioles, so some will inevitably compare him to Markakis, particularly those angered by Markakis's departure.
Snider is not Markakis. They are both former first-round draft picks -- Markakis (7th) in 2003; Snider in 2006 (14th) -- but each player has taken a much different career path. Clearly, Snider does not come close to Markakis's career accomplishments. One quick way to view that would be to observe their career wins above replacement totals:
Nick Markakis: 25.8 bWAR, 22.6 fWAR
Travis Snider: 4.2 bWAR, 2.7 fWAR
Markakis was arguably the Orioles' best player for about a decade (Adam Jones is right there, and did so with less playing time). Add in that Markakis was a homegrown talent -- something that's been rare for the Orioles during a period of truly awful baseball (basically 1998-2011) -- and it's not difficult to understand why so many fans latched on to Markakis and are having trouble letting him go.
Markakis has been a popular topic on Camden Depot; both his achievements and shortcomings have been analyzed frequently. So it has been noted often enough that Markakis was not a superstar. And it's not a dig to realize that the 2008 version of Markakis would have been extremely tough to replace, while the 2014 version is not.
So why is Snider the better fit for the Orioles? He's four years younger, and he possesses something that Markakis doesn't: some upside. Markakis hasn't been a great player for a while, and even though he's only 31, he does seem to have more wear on him than most. He has played in at least 155 games in every season but two: in 2006 (147), his rookie season; and in 2012 (104), when he missed part of the season after breaking his wrist and then missed the rest of the season after a CC Sabathia fastball broke his left thumb in September. Of course it's not a bad thing to be a durable, everyday player, but there's at least some health concern, as Markakis's recent neck surgery apparently worried the O's enough to back off a longer-term deal. The Orioles aren't always right about these things, but they are right often enough.
It's tough to ignore Snider's early career struggles. He showed a good amount of promise in his rookie season, posting a .301/.338/.466 (110 wRC+) line in a limited sample. The next couple seasons he hovered around a wRC+ of 100 while struggling to carve out consistent playing time. His production then fell off a cliff in 2011 (63 wRC+ in 202 plate appearances), and the Blue Jays traded him in the summer of 2012 to the Pirates for Brad Lincoln, another underwhelming 2006 first-round draft pick.
For the rest of 2012, Snider wasn't good (84 wRC+). And he certainly wasn't good in 2013 (71 wRC+) while playing through a nagging left foot injury. Snider eventually had surgery in the offseason to fix the issue. But in 2014, Snider was healthy and posted a career best 121 wRC+ while setting career highs in games (140) and plate appearances (359). Snider wasn't fortunate on balls in play (.298 BABIP), though he did have a modest uptick in his HR/FB rate (16.5% vs. career 13.3%). He also cut down on his strikeouts (18.7%) -- he never struck out less than 24.8% of the time in any other season -- walked more than he had in any season since 2009, and chased fewer pitches outside the zone than in any other season while making contact on 81.3% of his pitches (previous high of 79.1%). Still, one season of improved offensive performance shouldn't convince anyone that Snider is going to be fantastic or that he'll definitely hit a ton of home runs in a ballpark more suited to left-handed power than PNC Park.
Steamer projects Markakis to finish with a 101 wRC+ in 2015. It projects Snider to have a 116 wRC+ in 101 plate appearances. Certainly Snider is going to play much more than that, but it wouldn't be surprising if he outperformed Markakis. Much of Markakis's career is behind him, almost certainly including his best work. That might not be the case for Snider. And while Markakis does possess some on-base skills (Snider is close or maybe a little worse in that department), he doesn't currently have the same level of power that Snider does.
Even including his up-and-down, disappointing earlier seasons, Snider still has a greater career isolated power (.160) than Markakis (.145). He has fared better in hitting for power against all three types of pitches -- hard, breaking, and offspeed:
| Player | Hard ISO | Breaking ISO | Offspeed ISO |
| Markakis | .129 | .157 | .139 |
| Snider | .163 | .160 | .145 |
The breaking and offspeed categories are close, but Snider is better at hammering fastballs. And in 2014, Snider's ISO was double Markakis's when facing hard pitches (.189 vs. .095). He was also better against breaking pitches, though he did struggle against offspeed (Markakis wasn't great in this area, either).
Snider, who as noted above was much better plate discipline wise in 2014, did a better job of making pitchers pay when they threw him pitches in the middle of the plate or inside. Here's his ISO zone profile in 2014:
... vs. his career ISO zone profile:
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He also swung and missed less on pitches in the zone, which is key since he was already chasing fewer pitches outside of it. Pitchers want to attack Snider away (and down), so swinging and missing at fewer of those pitches obviously helped.
Maybe you view what Snider accomplished last season as a fluke. It might be. But it may also be an example of a hitter refining his approach at the plate. Not every player improves or matures at the same rate.
Markakis's body of work is much larger, so there's more to analyze and predict what he will do. That's not the case for Snider, who has the upside advantage or unknown variable, whatever you want to call it. Mike Petriello of FanGraphs even referred to Snider as a "lottery ticket." That seems more than fair.
UZR: -2.5 (UZR/150: -0.3)
DRS: +6
While Markakis has mostly played right field, Snider has split his time between left and right field. Oddly enough, he's been much better in left field, according to the metrics:
LF UZR: 5.8 (UZR/150: 5.3)
RF UZR: -5.9 (UZR/150: -5.5)
LF DRS: +16
RF DRS: -4
Maybe Snider is more comfortable in left field. Or maybe it doesn't mean a whole lot, since Snider still hasn't played a ton of innings overall in his career. He still seems like, at worst, an average outfielder. Maybe he's a little worse than Markakis, but either way, it's close.
Snider will make $2.1 million in 2015, and he has one arbitration-eligible year remaining after that. So he'll most likely see another modest raise in 2016. So the O's could end up paying, for example, around $5 or $6 million for Snider's age 27 and 28 seasons. Meanwhile, the Braves are locked in to a four-year, $44 million deal with Markakis for his age 31-34 seasons. Maybe Markakis will end up proving many analysts and fans wrong who think the Braves unnecessarily overpaid for his services. But the O's could end up getting similar production, both offensively and defensively, from Snider for a couple seasons at a fraction of the cost. Snider has not yet demonstrated that he can be a full-time player, and maybe he can't. But the O's will already have decisions to make beyond this season with so many impending free agents (including outfielders Steve Pearce and Alejandro De Aza). So Snider will get plenty of opportunities.
Not only did the O's minimize risk by not matching or exceeding Atlanta's offer for Markakis, but they also picked up a seemingly improving player with power who will be able to fill multiple roles. It's all right to be sad that Markakis is gone but to also realize that a Pearce/Snider combination in right field could and probably should outperform Markakis.
Photo via Keith Allison
06 January 2015
O's Offense Isn't as Bad as You Might Think
There's been discussion lately about who the Orioles should rely on to hit in the leadoff spot now that Nick Markakis is gone. At the moment, the most likely option, at least against right-handed pitching, is Alejandro De Aza. But against left-handed pitching? Perhaps Steve Pearce or Manny Machado. David Lough could get another shot at some point mainly because he's fast. Or maybe the club's leadoff man (Nori Aoki?) isn't yet on the roster.
But whatever Buck Showalter decides to do lineup order wise won't have a large effect on how the O's offense performs as a whole. Lineup construction doesn't matter all that much over the course of an entire season -- at least to the extent that many fans argue about it. (I'm also guilty of this at times.) Every run counts, but lineup order doesn't affect run expectancy much. So, sure, the leadoff spot is somewhat of a question mark, but what that really means is that on-base percentage and speed, to a lesser extent, are areas of concern. Last season, the Orioles were tied for 17th in OBP (.311), and they'll obviously be without the services of Nelson Cruz and Markakis going forward. They also weren't a base-stealing team at all; in fact, they were last in the majors in steals (44), 12 behind the Giants.
Still, even without Cruz and Markakis, the Orioles have a starting lineup of mostly average to above average hitters. Assuming a healthy team, the only potentially disastrous spot could be Jonathan Schoop at second base, but Schoop is also just 23 and could take a step or two forward next season. There's no guarantee that he will improve just because he's young and has a full season under his belt, but it would also be difficult for him to perform much worse. Last year, the average major league second baseman had a 88 wRC+; it's not unreasonable for Schoop to get there.
O's hitters listed by career wRC+ (with 2014 position average in brackets):
Chris Davis (115) [109]
Steve Pearce (110) [100]
Adam Jones (109) [103]
Manny Machado (104) [100]
Alejandro De Aza (99) [103]
Delmon Young (98) [106]
Matt Wieters (98) [93]
J.J. Hardy (95) [87]
Jonathan Schoop (67) [88]
The Pearce figure is for right field. De Aza's is for left. Young's is for designated hitter.
So, to clarify, the above figures include career wRC+ vs. 2014 MLB player averages. It's far from a perfect comparison. But, except for Schoop, the O's have average or slightly above average options at every position. De Aza and Young are both lower, but they also represent platoon options for Showalter. They aren't full-time players. De Aza has a career 103 wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching, while Young has a career wRC+ of 114 against left-handers.
The O's have been linked to free agents Colby Rasmus (103 wRC+) and Aoki (106 wRC+). Either player would make sense, though Rasmus is five years younger, is in the prime of his career, is seemingly willing to sign a one-year deal, and is likely the superior defender.
The main concern for the Orioles in 2015 is health. Wieters and Machado are coming off season-ending injuries, and in all likelihood they will need both to stay healthy and contribute to have a shot at making the playoffs. The O's already didn't have superstar talent on the roster, and while they should be able to get by without Markakis, they didn't adequately replace Cruz's bat in the lineup. Showalter and Duquette are likely counting on Wieters and Machado to produce, Pearce to play a bigger role (with not necessarily the same high level of production), and a bounce-back campaign from Davis.
Considering the team's defensive talent and pitching staff that has mostly stayed intact, if the Orioles finish close to 2014's team offensively, they'll be ecstatic. That probably won't happen, but Machado and Wieters possess the ability to perform extremely well. So does Davis, as he showed in 2013. All three of those players underwhelmed or got hurt last season. If the Orioles stay in the postseason chase over the summer, they could always trade for a bat then.
Photo via Keith Allison
20 November 2014
The 2015 Orioles Outfield Will Be Fine Without Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis
Photo by Keith Allison
Two key members of the Orioles' 2014 outfield, Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis, are free agents. Cruz, as expected, rejected the club's qualifying offer, which means the Orioles will get a draft pick as compensation if he signs with another club. The club declined Markakis' mutual option and did not extend him a qualifying offer, so there is no compensation if he signs elsewhere.
Many people still think the Orioles are the favorite for Cruz, and he has made it clear that his first choice is to return to Baltimore. While most people around the team still expect Markakis to return to the club, that outcome seems less likely than it did a week ago.
Losing both of these players would mean a loss of 6.4 fWAR from the Orioles outfield (For the sake of simplicity, I'm considering Cruz, Jones, Markakis, and Lough the Orioles 2014 OF. Yes, Cruz did DH. And Pearce played some OF, but Lough played a lot more innings in the OF than him). This is obviously a noticeable loss and it would be understandable to start scouring the list of free agents and potential trade candidates to replace this loss of production. Here and elsewhere, the name Nori Aoki has been thrown around as a possible replacement.
But, the Orioles outfield will be perfectly fine in 2015 as it stands right now. This isn't to say that they won't or shouldn't make any moves, but there's no need to panic if they don't.
Player
|
‘14 wRC+
|
Player
|
‘15 Projected wRC+
|
Jones
|
117
|
Jones
|
115
|
Cruz
|
137
|
Pearce
|
129
|
Markakis
|
106
|
De Aza
|
104
|
Lough
|
95
|
Lough
|
92
|
wRC+ weighted by PA
|
118
|
wRC+ weighted by PA
|
113
|
While the loss of both Cruz and Markakis feels significant, the drop in offensive production would not be too significant. The Orioles outfield was 18% above league average last season, offensively speaking. In 2015, they are projected to be 13% above average,
The main issue would be the fact that De Aza and Lough both struggle against LHP, but the impact of this could be softened by bringing in a Delmon Young-type player for some AB's against LHP. Those concerned that Pearce will fall harder back to earth than projected raise a fair point, but a spot in the everyday lineup is his to lose entering 2015.
And this says nothing of the defensive improvements this potential 2015 outfield could bring. The positive impact of giving Lough more innings in the outfield has been touched on here before. Swapping out Markakis (career -0.6 UZR/150) for De Aza (3.6) would also provide an upgrade defensively. On top of that, Pearce is an adequate outfielder (career +5.0 UZR/150), while Cruz (+ 2.9) has okay numbers, but he's 34 and not getting any more agile. On top of that, Cruz sure looked a lot worse than +2.9 UZR/150 outfielder last season.
It's still entirely possible that the Orioles will bring back both Cruz and Markakis. If both players leave, I'd expect the team to do something to address the outfield position through trade or free agency. But the need to do so isn't urgent and there's no reason to panic if they enter 2015 with the outfield currently on the roster.
17 September 2014
The Orioles Don't Have an MVP Candidate, So Who's the MVO?
Photo by Keith Allison
The Orioles have been on Fox two times this month. Each time, an Orioles player has been mentioned as a potential AL MVP candidate. One Saturday, it was Nelson Cruz’s numbers being compared to Mike Trout in the context of an MVP debate. The next week, Adam Jones was talked about as a possible MVP candidate.
Do either of these Orioles have a legitimate shot at winning
the AL MVP award? There are often a few debates around the MVP award in terms
of what qualifies a player for the award. Some feel pitchers shouldn’t be
considered for the award. Others debate whether there is a difference between the
“best” player and the “most valuable” player. To start, I’ll look at Cruz and
Jones in the simplest terms, without considering pitchers and without
differentiating between “best” and “most valuable.” This does not necessarily
reflect my feelings on the award, but it makes sense to evaluate their
candidacy in the broadest sense and only then try to refine our evaluation if
they survive the broader evaluation first.
In my evaluation, I’ve included stats that wouldn’t be part
of my decision on who to vote for, but that voters consider. The AL rank is in parenthesis.
HR
|
OPS
|
wRC+
|
fWAR
|
|
Cruz
|
39 (1st)
|
.857 (10th)
|
136 (10th)
|
3.5 (25th)
|
Jones
|
25 (13th)
|
.782 (24th)
|
117 (27th)
|
5.2 (8th)
|
Other than home runs, neither guy finds himself in the top 7
of any category among all qualified AL batters.
Sometimes an argument is made that a player has been
particularly “clutch” in a season and that this isn’t necessarily reflected in
his other offensive totals. To look at that, we have Win Probability Added
(WPA), which evaluates how much a player does or doesn’t contribute to his team’s
win expectancy. Neither player seems to have an argument that his numbers were
especially “clutch”, as Cruz ranks 19th (2.01) and Jones is 42nd
(0.23).
Cruz and Jones are both great players. They both deserved
their All-Star selections this year. The Orioles would not be where they are
without these two guys. However, neither of them are legitimate contenders for
the AL MVP. Yes, the Orioles have lost significant pieces of their puzzle this
year, mainly due to injury. But, as Matt pointed out, the Orioles have gotten contributions from many different
places, enabling them to succeed without a monster season from any one player
(but great seasons from a few).
So, without a serious MVP candidate, who is the Most
Valuable Orioles player (MVO)? Cruz and Jones are obviously serious contenders. To
revisit the pitcher discussion from above, I don’t think any Orioles pitcher
has had a dominant enough season to be considered for MVO over an everyday
player. Zach Britton has been great and Darren O’Day is having a stellar
season. But I don’t think a reliever’s impact is enough to merit consideration
over an everyday player.
Of Orioles players with over 350 PA’s, only 3 appear in the
top 5 for both fWAR and wRC+. While neither of these stats are or should be the sole basis
of an MVP vote, I wouldn’t vote for someone not in the top 5 in both when there
are players who are. The 3 players are Cruz, Jones, and Steve Pearce. Here are their numbers and team rank:
HR
|
OPS
|
wRC+
|
fWAR
|
|
Cruz
|
39 (1st)
|
.857 (2nd)
|
136 (2nd)
|
3.5 (4th)
|
Jones
|
25 (3rd)
|
.782 (3rd)
|
117 (3rd)
|
5.2 (1st)
|
Pearce
|
17 (4th)
|
(.897 1st)
|
151 (1st)
|
4.4 (2nd)
|
Pearce rates the highest in the two rate stats, but not in
the two counting stats. Is playing time the only thing keeping Pearce from
being first in all 4 categories? Maybe, but there’s also the argument that more
playing time would expose Pearce for the 31-year-old journeyman he has been
until this season. To me, there’s not a clear cut winner here, as Jones’ lead
in fWAR answers his rank in wRC+. An argument could be made for any of these 3
players based off of this chart.
Defense would also have to play a factor in this discussion
Pearce's UZR is from his time at 1B and OF. For Cruz, I only included his time in LF. Jones has only played in CF this year.
I'm not ready to assign a lot of meaning to Pearce's relatively sky high UZR. In fact, I thought about only including DEF because of how much the UZR piece could incorrectly tilt the scales here. I put more weight into Jones' much smaller lead in DEF than into Pearce's lead in UZR.
If the offensive numbers leave all 3 still looking like viable candidates for MVO, Cruz's defense puts a serious damper on his chances. Additionally,the fact that Cruz's 2nd half fWAR is only 0.5 puts Jones and Pearce are both ahead of him for MVO.
Jones has a healthy lead in fWAR, partially because of his defense, but mainly because he has had a significant more amount of playing time than Pearce. Jones can't be faulted for being an everyday player. If anyone is to be penalized in terms of playing time, it's Pearce, because we can only speak hypothetically about what his output would be if he were to have played as regularly as Jones. Really, Jones should receive additional marks for his consistent playing time.
All 3 of these guys have had terrific years. While Jones' numbers are likely the least surprising, he's been the best all-around player and has done it over a larger sample size than his closest competition, Steve Pearce. Jones' play is enough to earn him the MVO award. This, coupled with his role as the face of the team and perceived clubhouse leader, make Adam Jones my choice for 2014 MVO.
All stats (current before play began on 9/16/14) pulled from Fangraphs and ESPN
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