ESPN 3 Who to Watch: Weekend of March 30 to April 1, 2012

by Jeremy Strain

References to prospect rankings are generally taken from the Top 100 Draft Prospect preseason rankings at Baseball America.

FRIDAY
3/30 6:00 PM EDT Virginia Tech vs. #4 Florida State
Florida St. features 2012 draft hopefuls Justin Gonzalez, who is having a slow start to the year, James Ramsay and Jayce Boyd. Virginia Tech features fringe top 100 prospect Andrew Rash.

3/30 6:30 PM EDT #8 Miami (FL) vs. Clemson
Number 8 Miami is led by early-round draft prospect C Peter O’Brien, as well as RP E.J. Escinosa, and SS Stephen Perez. Clemson features top 2012 prospects P Kevin Brady and 3B Richie Shaffer, as well as a few interesting follows such as Jason Stolz and P Kevin Pohle.

3/30 6:30 PM EDT Virginia vs. #22 North Carolina State
Virginia features RP Branden Kline and SS Stephen Bruno who are prospects for the draft this year, and while NC State doesn’t have any BA Top 100 players it does have a pair of young players worth watching in P Carlos Rodon and C Brett Austin.

3/30 8:00 PM EDT #3 Arkansas vs. #14 LSU
Third ranked Arkansas features top 2012 draft prospects Nolan Sandburn and P DJ Baxendale, and 2013 top draft prospects Dom Ficocciello and Ryne Stanek. The Tigers boast one of the top prospects in the 2012 draft -- P Kevin Gausman -- as well as SS Austin Nola.

SATURDAY
3/31 1:00 PM EDT Duke vs. #21 Georgia Tech
Duke features a top pitching prospect in Marcus Stroman, whereas Georgia Tech features P Buck Farmer, as well as OF prospects Brandon Thomas and Kyle Wren.

3/31 1:00 PM EDT Alabama vs. Tennessee
Alabama has OF Taylor Dugas and P Ian Gardeck who are in the latter part of the 2012 top 100 prospects while Tennessee has no prospects in Baseball America’s top 100 list this season.

3/31 4:00 PM EDT #7 Kentucky vs. #18 Georgia
Kentucky features 2012 prospect, OF Brian Adams, while Georgia has two pitchers in the latter half of BA's list in Michael Palazzone and Alex Wood.

3/31 4:00 PM EDT #10 South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt
South Carolina boasts a lineup featuring draft hopefuls, 1B Christian Walker, OF Adam Matthews, P Matt Price, and OF Evan Marzilli. Vandy features P Sam Selman, who is having a rough year, and OF Michael Yastrzemski, the grandson of the great Carl Yastrzemski. Tyler Beede is a young player to watch for future years.

3/31 4:00 PM EDT #8 Miami (FL) vs. Clemson
Number 8 Miami is led by top draft prospect C Peter O’Brien, as well as RP E.J. Escinosa, and SS Stephen Perez. Clemson features top 2012 prospects P Kevin Brady and 3B Richie Shaffer, as well as a few interesting follows such as Jason Stolz and P Kevin Pohle.

3/31 6:00 PM EDT Virginia Tech vs. #4 Florida State
Florida St. features 2012 draft hopefuls Justin Gonzalez, who is having a slow start to the year, James Ramsay and Jayce Boyd, while Virginia Tech features fringe top 100 prospect Andrew Rash.

3/31 6:30 PM EDT Virginia vs. #22 North Carolina State
Virginia features RP Branden Kline and SS Stephen Bruno who are prospects for the draft this year, and while NC State doesn’t have any BA Top 100 players it does have a pair of young players worth watching in P Carlos Rodon and C Brett Austin.

SUNDAY
4/01 12:00 PM EDT Miami (FL) vs. Clemson
Number 8 Miami is led by top draft prospect C Peter O’Brien, as well as RP E.J. Escinosa, and SS Stephen Perez. Clemson features top 2012 prospects P Kevin Brady and 3B Richie Shaffer, as well as a few interesting follows such as Jason Stolz and P Kevin Pohle.

4/01 1:00 PM EDT Virginia vs. #22 North Carolina State
Virginia features RP Branden Kline and SS Stephen Bruno who are prospects for the draft this year, and while NC State doesn’t have any BA Top 100 players it does have a pair of young players worth watching in P Carlos Rodon and C Brett Austin.

4/01 1:00 PM EDT Virginia Tech vs. #4 Florida State
Florida St. features 2012 draft hopefuls Justin Gonzalez, who is having a slow start to the year, James Ramsay and Jayce Boyd, while Virginia Tech features fringe top 100 prospect Andrew Rash.

4/012:00 PM EDT California vs. #25 Texas
Cal has a couple players in the top 100 in P Justin Jones and SS Tony Renda, and Texas counters with top prospect pitcher Hoby Milner. The Longhorns' projectable starter Sam Stafford is out for the season with a shoulder injury.

2012 Season Predictions

Yesterday, I posted the expected draft order for 2013.  Today, I am posting the projected season win totals.  Projections were devised by using projection models (e.g. ZiPS, MARCEL, ROTOWORLD) and then used to caluclate expected wins.

These numbers should not be understood as definites.  A basic quick and dirty rule is to look at those values with a plus and minus of 10 games.  With that perspective, the realm of possibility for teams to make the AL playoffs (~93 wins for AL Wild Card) are: New York, Boston, Tampa Bay, Detroit, Texas, and LAAA.  Yes, six teams in the AL are projected to be playing meaningful games.  Detroit is not expected to have any trouble getting to the post season this year.  The AL East and AL West should be highly contested.

American
East
New York	97	65	div
Boston	92	70	wc
Tampa Bay	83	79
Toronto	79	83
Baltimore	68	94
Central
Detroit	90	72	div
Cleveland	78	84
ChiSox	74	88
Kansas City	74	88
Minnesota	70	92
West
Texas	95	67	div
LAAA	93	69	wc
Oakland	74	88
Seattle	69	93
AL MVP	J. Bautista	Toronto
Cy Young	CC Sabathia	New York

Our projections see the NL as more of a free for all.  The teams viable for NL Playoffs (~90 wins) are: Philadelphia, Miami, Atlanta, Washington, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, San Francisco, Arizona, Colorado, Los Angeles Dodgers.  Eleven of the sixteen teams are projected as having a realistic chance of making the playoffs.  Every division poses potentially exciting end of September play.

National
East
Philadelphia	94	68	div
Miami	86	76	wc
Atlanta	85	77
Washington	82	80
New York	72	90
Central
St. Louis	89	73	div
Cincinnati	87	75	wc
Milwaukee	84	78
Chicago	73	89
Pittsburgh	71	91
Houston	62	100
West
San Francisco	89	73	div
Arizona	86	76
Colorado	81	81
LAD	80	82
San Diego	73	89
NL MVP	J. Votto	Cincinnati
Cy Young	C. Kershaw	LAD

Which Moose is Better? A Battle of Mussinas

It was announced this week that Mike Mussina will be inducted into the Orioles Hall of Fame.  He may be one of the most underrated pitchers in MLB history.  His rWAR of 74.8 puts him as the 15th best pitching career since integration in 1947.  That places him above Don Drysdale (65.7), Juan Marichal (64.0), and the immortal Jim Palmer (63.5).  Every pitcher above him has made the Hall of Fame, except for four who will soon join (Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, and Pedro Martinez).  That is an amazing collection of pitchers.  As much as we call this past era as the era of extreme batting performances...it also was apparently an era of remarkable pitching.  For comparison, there is no pitcher with more than 60 rWAR who began his career between Rick Reuschel in 1972 and Roger Clemens in 1984.

However, for the Oriole fan, another question remains: Who is better?  Oriole Mike or Yankee Mike?

You decide in a good old fashion moose fight.

Reviewing Behind the Plate: Javy Lopez' Biography

I was recently asked to review Lopez' autobiography, Behind the Plate: a Catcher's View of the Braves Dynasty.  In the letter that accompanied the book, I was also informed that Javy is handsome.  Sure.  However, those of you interested in learning how Javy keeps his good looks...that is not discussed in this book.  In fact, this book is more or less a cursory look at his career.  You learn of many things that happened to Javy, but not much more than a passing comment.  It makes the 184 page book a quick read.  I was able to go through it in less than three hours.  Lopez and his writing assistant, Gary Caruso, take the catcher's experiences and turn it into a readily accessible conversational style delivery that does not seem to include too many follow up questions.

It piques my interest in many areas.  I would certainly like to know more about baseball in Puerto Rico, his experiences in the minors, his only off season as a free agent in search of a deal, and perhaps more about the Orioles clubhouse that Sam Perlozzo ran.  Covering so many topics, the book must try to succeed as a light read and rather interesting.  Otherwise, Javy would have created a 500 page book.  I think I may actually appreciate this book more than the typical reader because it is actually a great companion piece to John Schuerholz's book Built to Win.  Schuerholz's book is bogged down as a self-serious and obsessed mess.  Javy comes off as far more genuine and down to earth documentation of the Braves' run with a perspective that feels as if he was sharing with you a cleanly scrubbed version of his soul.  I think both are poor self evaluators, but Javy appears more humble about things.



The Orioles appear in one chapter toward the end.  It reads as if Javy felt that he had to address his entire career.  It is rather bare boned.  It begins with Lopez firmly being told that the Braves will not negotiate with him and he needs to seek employment elsewhere.  He glosses over his selection of Baltimore except to mention he did his best to wind up in the NL West.  Javy spends a little time discussing the end of his run with Baltimore.  Javy clearly is upset with the Orioles.  He states that they pointlessly rushed him back from a broken hand and then misled him about his role on the team in 2006.  He further suggests that the Orioles proceeded to ignore him during the last Spring Training of his three year deal.  It was peculiar in that it makes the Orioles appear to be so dysfunctional in their communication with someone who had to be on their 25 man roster.  The same player who they supposedly offered a 3 MM extension that same off season.  It made me wish I could read Sam Perlozzo's take on what transpired.  Javy is speaking from his heart, but he may not have been aware of the entire situation or he fell victim to a misunderstanding.


Bottom line . . . even though this is really a book about the Braves, I do think you should read it.  It is not a pure rah-rah book like many sports biographies are.  He tries to describe what he experienced without being sensational.  There is a place for that.

---

A few more thoughts . . .
Javy Lopez might be one of the most underrated catchers in baseball history.  If you look at his oWAR at Baseball Reference, he had a career rating of 30.5 along with a dWAR of -2.6.  The calculations of dWAR leave a lot to desire, particularly with catchers.  Recently, there was an article in Baseball Prospectus that look at how catchers affected their pitchers.  It found that over Javy's career, that he was worth about 20 wins on defense.  That would put him right in the top ten catchers of all time and make a strong case for him being inducted into the Hall of Fame.

Who knew?  I surely did not.  When Javy arrived with the Orioles, I saw a catcher with adequate defense and a plus bat for a catcher.  His second season, it looked like his bat speed collapsed.  It could have been the result of him breaking his hand.  His stiff movements behind the plate proceeded the injury.  The Orioles inferred that the team needed an upgrade at catcher and signed Ramon Hernandez.  Lopez had a rough final season, was dealt to Boston, and then was released shortly thereafter.  I had thought I witnessed the downward portion of a very good baseball player.  It looks like I sold him a bit short if the methodology in the BP article is sound.


It makes me wish I would have paid more attention to TBS.

2012 Draft Coverage: Finding 1:4, Weekly Pref List

I was out in the Bay Area this weekend to catch a number of early-round draft prospects, including a handful at Stanford, University of San Francisco ace Kyle Zimmer (rhp), and a couple high follows at St. Mary's College. We'll dig into a bunch of these kids as the spring progesses, but for today we'll stick with the two players on our 1:4 watch list -- Stanford's Mark Appel (rhp) and San Fran's Kyle Zimmer. Appel solidified his place atop the pref list, and is increasingly looking like he will be a non-factor in Baltimore's decision-making. Appel was 93-96 mph throughout his complete game against USC, hitting 94 mph with the final pitch. Appel's power slurve hovered between 82 and 85 mph, at its best at 84-85 when he got extension out in front and was able to produce hard late bite. A "show me" pitch last summer, Appel's change-up was solid Major League average on Sunday, and flashed above-average to plus a number of times.

While Appel's scheduled Saturday start was called due to weather, Kyle Zimmer was asked to go the distance in upper-40s to low-50s temperatures and a constant light rain. Despite the environment, Zimmer put together an impressive outing against an overmatched UC-Santa Barbara squad, allowing 5 hits and 1 walk while striking out 9 in the complete game win. Zimmer was 91-93 mph with his fastball, touching 94 mph (slightly down from his typical 92-95 mph, touching 96 mph), and working mostly at the knees. Zimmer's primary breaking ball was a hammer curve sitting 78-80 mph. He worked the pitch well as a bury pitch when ahead in the count, but also showed an ability to drop it into the zone early on. He mixed in both an upper-70s change-up and lower-80s slider, but primarily worked off his 1-2 fastball-curve combo.

I'll start our detailed scouting reports next week with Appel and Zimmer. As noted in the 2012 Draft introduction piece, the detailed reports will be complete with player video and scouting grades. Below is my updated preference list for 1:4 targets.

Current Preference List (March 27, 2012)
1. Mark Appel, rhp, Stanford Univ.
2. Byron Buxton, of, Appling County HS (Baxley, Ga.)
3. Kyle Zimmer, rhp, Univ. of San Francisco
4. Mike Zunino, c, Univ. of Florida
5. Gavin Cecchini, ss, Barbe HS (Lake Charles, La.)
6. Deven Marrero, ss, Arizona St. Univ.
7. Stryker Trahan, c, Acadiana HS (Lafayette, La.)
8. Albert Almora, of, Mater Acad. (Hialeah Gardens, Fla.)
9. Lucas Giolito, rhp, Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)
10. Kevin Gausman, rhp, Louisiana St. Univ.
11. Max Fried, lhp, Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)
12. Carlos Correa, ss, Puerto Rico Baseball Acad. (Gurabo, P.R.)
13. Matt Smoral, lhp, Solon HS (Solon, Ohio)
14. David Dahl, of, Oak Mountain HS (Birmingham, Ala.)
15. Walker Weickel, rhp/1b, Olympia HS (Fla.)

If there is reader interest, I can start charting the movement between picks each week, as well. More draft video for you from my scouting trips -- here is Deven Marrero with the USA Collegiate National Team, working out and then in action against the 18U squad during the Prospect Classic:

2013 Draft Order

No need to play the season because we figured it all out.  Based on talent levels and schedules, we modeled how the teams will finish (we will present that information in a post shortly).  This informs up a projection for next year's draft order.

Here is your 2013 draft order for the first round.

Pick	Team	GB
1	Houston	--
2	Baltimore	6
3	Seattle	7
4	Minnesota	8
5	Pittsburgh	9
6	NYM	10
7	Chi Cubs	11
8	San Diego	11
9	KC	12
10	ChiSox	12
11	Oakland	12
12	Cleveland	16
13	Toronto	17
14	LAD	18
15	Colorado	19
16	Wash	20
17	Tampa Bay	21
18	Milwaukee	22
19	Atlanta	23
20	Miami	24
21	Arizona	24
22	Boston	30
23	Cincinatti	PO
24	Detroit	PO
25	SF	PO
26	LAA	PO
27	St. Louis	PO
28	Texas	PO
29	Philadelphia	PO
30	NYY	PO

ESPN 3 Who to Watch: Weekend of March 23-25, 2012

ESPN 3 Who to Watch: Weekend of March 23-25, 2012.

by Jeremy Strain

FRIDAY

3/23 7:00 PM EDT #1 Florida vs. #8 SouthCarolina

The pitching matchups to watch in this series feature Florida starters BrianJohnson, JohnnyMagliozzi , HudsonRandall and ace reliever AustinMaddox versus South Carolina hurler MattPrice. [NOTE FROM NICK: Randall, Maddox and Price all threw on Thursday night, and Price and Maddox are most likely unavailable again until Saturday.]

SATURDAY

3/24 1:00 PM EDT #20 NorthCarolina State vs. #5 NorthCarolina

This matchup doesn’t feature any of the BA preseason top100, but it features some young players to watch for 2013, and some youngoutstanding pitching.

3/24 1:00 PM EDT #1 Florida vs. #8 SouthCarolina

From abatting standpoint, led by Mike Zunino, Preston Tucker, and Nolan Fontana, Florida is sawing throughcompetition this season. [NOTE FROM NICK: Freshmen Taylor Gushue and Joshua Tobias are candidates for early-round attention come 2014.] For South Carolina at bat, the preseason top 100players to watch are Evan Marzilli, Christian Walker, and Adam Matthews, who is off to a bit of a slow startthis season [NOTE FROM NICK: but showed well in Thursday night's series opener].

3/24 4:00 PM EDT FloridaAtlantic vs. MiddleTennessee

This game doesn’t feature any of the BA preseason top 100.

SUNDAY

3/25 1:00 PM EDT #3 Arkansasvs. MississippiState

The players to watch for in this matchup are from numberthree ranked Arkansas featuring OF Nolan Sanburn and P D.J.Baxendale who areboth preseason top 30 players. [NOTE FROM NICK: Matt Reynolds is a fringe top 100 talent and 2013 early-round candidates Ryne Stanek and Dom Ficociello are worth a watch.]

3/25 2:00 PM EDT #20 NorthCarolina State vs. #5 NorthCarolina

As mentioned before this is a game more to watch for 2013than for the 2012 draft, but a tough ACC matchup.

2012 Draft Coverage: Finding 1:4 (Introduction)

This year the Baltimore Orioles will have the fourth overall pick in the MLB Rule 4 Draft (First-Year Player Draft). As in years past, Camden Depot will roll out detailed scouting reports of the players we think should be considered for selection come June. Again as in years past, we will run a "shadow draft", whereby we make a selection for Baltimore for each slot in the first ten rounds.

Unique to our 2012 coverage, we'll be starting a weekly piece (most likely on Mondays) giving a current ranking of our 1:4 targets, and a summary of any noteworthy info relating to those players over the previous week. Below is our current "preference list", ranking the fifteen players we have selected as targets for the 1:4 pick. This list was based on scouting trips over the past nine months and some video review. One note is that Luc Giolito (pictured) was at the top of our off-season pref list, but has dropped down for now until we see the extent of the arm woes that have led to his shutting down for 6 - 8 weeks. Below the rankings we've also broken the list down by player type.

Current Preference List (March 22, 2012)
1. Mark Appel, rhp, Stanford Univ.
2. Byron Buxton, of, Appling County HS (Baxley, Ga.)
3. Mike Zunino, c, Univ. of Florida
4. Deven Marrero, ss, Arizona St. Univ.
5. Kyle Zimmer, rhp, Univ. of San Francisco
6. Gavin Cecchini, ss, Barbe HS (Lake Charles, La.)
7. Kevin Gausman, rhp, Louisiana St. Univ.
8. Stryker Trahan, c, Acadiana HS (Lafayette, La.)
9. Albert Almora, of, Mater Acad. (Hialeah Gardens, Fla.)
10. David Dahl, of, Oak Mountain HS (Birmingham, Ala.)
11. Lucas Giolito, rhp, Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)
12. Max Fried, lhp, Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)
13. Carlos Correa, ss, Puerto Rico Baseball Acad. (Gurabo, P.R.)
14. Matt Smoral, lhp, Solon HS (Solon, Ohio)
15. Walker Weickel, rhp/1b, Olympia HS (Fla.)

Breakdown
College Pitchers
Mark Appel, rhp, Stanford Univ.
Kevin Gausman, rhp, Louisiana St. Univ.
Kyle Zimmer, rhp, Univ. of San Francisco

College Position Players
Deven Marrero, ss, Arizona St. Univ.
Mike Zunino, c, Univ. of Florida

High School Pitchers
Max Fried, lhp, Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)
Lucas Giolito, rhp, Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)
Matt Smoral, lhp, Solon HS (Solon, Ohio)
Walker Weickel, rhp, Olympia HS (Orlando, Fla.)

High School Position Players
Albert Almora, of, Mater Acad. (Hialeah Gardens, Fla.)
Byron Buxton, of, Appling County HS (Baxley, Ga.)
Gavin Cecchini, ss, Barbe HS (Lake Charles, La.)
Carlos Correa, ss, Puerto Rico Baseball Acad. (Gurabo, P.R.)
David Dahl, of, Oak Mountain HS (Birmingham, Ala.)
Stryker Trahan, c, Acadiana HS (Lafayette, La.)

I have seen all but Zimmer in person already (most multiple times), and will be seeing Zimmer and Appel this upcoming weekend in the Bay Area. Next weeked will be spent in Louisiana, where I plan to catch Gausman, Trahan and Cecchini. Full scouting reports will begin to roll out in April. Each report will contain player video. We strongly encourage reader involvement and hope to keep an ongoing dialogue in the discussion section of the weekly updates and the player reports. To whet your appetite, here is video of our current #1 target, Mark Appel, taken during his start this summer against Japan's collegiate national team:




We look forward to counting down with you to the draft, and the addition of the next Orioles top prospect. See you at the fields!

2012 Preseason Talent Ranking

This ranking system was based on the quality of talent on each team based on projected WAR.  The lowest team, Houston, was set at zero while the highest team, New York Yankees, was set as 100. 

It looks like it might be another rough year here in Baltimore.  Baltimore came in as the 26th most talented season.  The next best AL East team, Toronto, came in at 16th.