30 September 2014

Congratulating Stuart Wallace

Another Camden Depot writer is on to bigger and better things. You already know about Jon Shepherd leaving the site to work for Baseball Prospectus. Now, Stuart Wallace is leaving the blogosphere to take a position with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Jon recruited Stuart to write for Camden Depot, so I asked for his thoughts on bringing Stuart into the fold a while back and also on his exciting opportunity with the Pirates:
I contacted Stuart after searching for a local writer who was familiar with advanced metrics and medical concepts while also not being an Orioles fan. All of those attributes were important to me when I was looking for another writer to add to the site. One of the major problems that afflicts all local blogs is provincialism. It is natural to carry a shine to your analysis because you are a fan of a team. That desire for your club to do well can sometimes be a difficult aspect to coldly remove when evaluating a club. Stuart could occupy that outsider role and provide us with a control to compare our own writing against. Now, the other writers did not realize I went after Stuart for these reasons. I mainly lauded his ability to navigate through medicine as his selling point. However, I do think him never being a part of the Oriole fan club made him a valued asset to this site. His views were fair and fairly insightful. Those characteristics are why he was highly sought within the baseball blog world as well as why he is now leaving that world to enter the Pittsburgh Pirates organization.
So congrats, Stuart. And don't forget about us lowly bloggers, toiling away in obscurity.

29 September 2014

The Tigers' Four-Headed Monster

Everyone knows about the Tigers' tough rotation. Max Scherzer, David Price, Rick Porcello, and Justin Verlander is a tough challenge for any offense. It's probably no consolation that things could be worse. Anibal Sanchez suffered an injury in the second half of the season and won't be starting in the postseason. All in all it probably isn't surprising that the Tigers' rotation has the highest Fangraphs WAR in baseball.

But if you look at the second half of the season you may notice something surprising. The Tigers' rotation has the second highest WAR in baseball. But their rotation has an ERA of 3.97 to the Orioles' rotation ERA of 2.98. Part of the problem is the defense. According to UZR, the Orioles have the second best defense in the league while the Tigers have the fourth worst. Due to the recent injury to Rajai Davis, the Tigers have been forced to field an outfield of J.D. Martinez, Ezequiel Carrera, and Torii Hunter. Hunter and Carrera have worse than a -20 UZR/150 while J.D. Martinez has a UZR/150 of -9. None have even average range. It probably shouldn't come as any surprise that the Orioles are outperforming their FIP while the Tigers are underperforming.

That's why the Tigers' real four-headed monster is Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez, and Hunter. These four hitters have been the heart of the second highest scoring offense in the AL. The Tigers scored 53 more runs than the Orioles this season and these four guys are to blame. When you look at the Tigers' offense they have these four powerful sluggers, four average bats in Davis, Ian Kinsler, Alex Avila, and Nick Castellanos, and not much else. Find a way to stop those four powerful bats and the Tigers are in trouble.

It's even more crucial when you look at how Price, Scherzer, and Porcello do with run support. Scherzer went 16-2 with five no-decisions when his team scored three runs or more but only 2-3 with four no-decisions when his team scored two runs or fewer. Porcello went 14-3 with three no-decisions when his team scored three runs or more but only 1-9 with one no-decision when his team scored two runs or fewer. With better run support he could have flirted with 20 wins. Price went 11-4 with six no-decisions when his team scored three or more but only 3-8 with one no-decision when his team scored two runs or fewer. If you let these three pitchers get a large lead, then they're probably going to beat you.

But it's going to be awfully hard to stop these four batters. None of these four are left-handed. In fact, the best left-handed hitter that the Tigers have is Avila. There's probably no point in having Brian Matusz on the roster against these guys. They hit right-handed pitching hard and are even better against lefties.

It's hard to find any weaknesses. Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera are two of the best batters in the game. It doesn't matter what type of pitcher they're up against -- they either hit them hard or harder. J.D. Martinez struggles against finesse and groundball type pitchers, but Hunter does worse against power pitchers. All in all, they're a tough matchup for any rotation.

But the Orioles have had a pretty strong rotation themselves and a potential bullpen of Brad Brach, Andrew Miller, Darren O'Day, and Zach Britton is going to be tough to beat. Right-handed hitters are only hitting .191/.266/.277 against Brach. That doesn't look bad compared to their .163/.252/.248 line against O'Day and .176/.263/.293 line against Britton. And those look pretty good compared to Miller's .144/.248/.205 line against righties. And Kevin Gausman has allowed only a .263/.302/.360 line against righties --- as a starter. How effective can he be as a reliever? If the O's starters are able to go five innings, then the Tigers are going to be in for a tough matchup against this bullpen.

Stopping the Tigers' four-headed monster is going to be tough. But this Orioles' bullpen is built to make right-handed batters cry. The winner of this matchup is likely going to go on to the ALCS.

27 September 2014

Henry Urrutia - A Tale of Two Seasons

If you were to try to name the most-disappointing minor leaguer in the 2014 Orioles' organization, Henry Urrutia would almost certainly be a finalist. Signed at age 25 in 2012 out of Cuba, Urrutia made a spectacular United States debut in 2013, hitting .347/.406/.506 in 81 games between AA Bowie and AAA Norfolk. He was even called up to Baltimore in that first professional season, getting 58 plate appearances with a .276 batting average. Baseball America ranked Urrutia as the Orioles #7 prospect entering the 2014 season, saying that he should compete for the Orioles' left-field job in 2014. This was before the Orioles added Delmon Young and Nelson Cruz, so Urrutia was optioned to Norfolk. He had a disappointing year; hitting only .270/.284/.338 in 51 games and spending April 29 through July 27 on the disabled list with a sports hernia.
Henry Urrutia in 2014. Photo courtesy of Christopher McCain / Norfolk Tides
It's likely that Urrutia's disappointing 2014 was at least partially caused by his injury. Whether it was or not, however, we can look at Urrutia's performances in 2013 and 2014 and try to see how they differ. If we can identify real differences, we can see what Urrutia must do to regain his 2013 form and speculate on whether it was caused by his injury. I don't know enough physiology or medicine to engage in such speculation, but I can look at the games I worked in which he played to identify the differences. I saw 28 of Urrutia's 2013 plate appearances; 34 of his 2014 plate appearances before his disabled list stint; and 29 of his 2014 plate appearances after his disabled list stint. Urrutia hit .220 before and .303 after his disabled list stint.

2013


BB
K
P
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
LF
CF
RF
Ground


4

4
2

2
2


Line Drive








2
2
2
Fly








2
1
1
Other
2
2









2014 Before Disabled List


BB
K
P
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
LF
CF
RF
Ground


4

3
6

5
3


Line Drive








3


Fly








1


Other
1
8









2014 After Disabled List


BB
K
P
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
LF
CF
RF
Ground




1
3

7
2
2
1
Line Drive







1
3


Fly





1


1
1

Other
0
6










We can see that Urrutia struck out substantially more frequently in 2014 than in 2013. It could be that the injury was affecting Urrutia's ability to make contact and that he was rusty after he came off the DL, or that pitchers were taking advantage of a discovered weakness, or that Urrutia was experimenting with his approach. Whatever the reason, when he increased his strikeouts his productivity decreased.

Next, it's clear that after his disabled list stint he hit the ball on the ground more frequently than otherwise. In 2013, 58% of the balls he put in play were ground balls. In 2014 after he returned from the disabled list, 70% of the balls he put in play were ground balls. In 2014 before he was placed on the disabled list, 84% of the ball he put in play were ground balls. And, before he hit the disabled list in 2014, he didn't hit a ball, either in the air or on the ground, to the right or center fielders.

Based on this, it seems clear that Urrutia's problems in early 2014 were at least partly caused by the sports hernia. He wasn't pulling the ball and he wasn't lofting the ball. Those actions seem likely to be hampered by a sports hernia. When he came back, he still wasn't able to pull fly balls or line drives although he was hitting more of them.

When he's at his best, Urrutia hits the ball all over the field although he doesn't seem to slap ground balls to third. This quick look does confirm that Urrutia wasn't at his best in 2014, especially before his sports hernia was diagnosed and he was put on the disabled list. Urrutia will likely start 2015 in Norfolk (unless he ends up in another organization.) If he returns to hitting fly balls and line drives, he still could prove to be a useful left-handed designated hitter-type.

26 September 2014

Highlighting Jon Shepherd's Best Work at Camden Depot

Camden Depot has become one of the go-to destinations to read in-depth discussion and analysis of the Baltimore Orioles. Obviously my view isn't objective, but I don't think anyone would say that's hyperbole. And all of the credit for crafting Camden Depot goes to Jon Shepherd, who founded the site in 2007. In that time, he published more than 700 articles (and plenty of others elsewhere), cultivating the readership into what it is today.

As Jon wrote a few days ago, he's leaving the site to work as a statistical analyst for Baseball Prospectus. So I thought it would be a good idea to provide links to some of his best work, both analyzing Orioles' topics and baseball in general.
So congratulate Jon (unless you really don't want to, which is cool) and enjoy looking back at some of his excellent research and analysis.

On Chris Davis and the Use of Amphetamines in Baseball

This is a guest post by Luis Torres. Read more of his work at Taking Back Baseball. You can also follow him on Twitter.

It was announced earlier this month that Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles was suspended 25 games for amphetamine use. He was suspended for the rest of the regular season (17 games) and as many as eight playoff games, depending on how far the Orioles get in the playoffs. Specifically, as far as I know, Davis was taking prescription Adderall.

Adderall is the brand name for generic amphetamines. When sold illegally, it's better known as Speed. The amphetamine class of molecules also includes crystal meth. I'm going to go into the chemistry in a bit of detail, so in honor of Baseball Prospectus' Russell Carleton...

WARNING! GORY CHEMISTRY!



The term amphetamine (shown above) covers a specific class of phenethylamines that act as a powerful stimulant. It's best known as Adderall, a common treatment for ADHD and narcolepsy. It helps ADHD patients focus and concentrate, and since it's such a potent stimulant, it helps to keep narcolepsy patients awake.

Amphetamines have what is referred to as a chiral carbon. As some of you may or may not have learned in high school chemistry, a carbon atom has four bonds spaced out in a tetrahedral fashion. In other words, like a triangle-based pyramid where each point likes whatever the carbon atom is bonded to. When a carbon atom is bonded to four different atoms or groups, it is said to be chiral. Because of the three dimensional nature of the molecule, the mirror images of the molecules cannot be superimposed on one another so that all the groups match.


If you look at the two identical molecules above, you can see that in three dimensions, you can't rotate one molecule so that the four colored balls overlap. Each mirror image of the molecule is called an enantiomer, and can be distinguished as "left-handed" or "right-handed"*, because like enantiomers, your hands are really nonsuperimposable mirror images. Each enantiomer has identical physical properties, so why do you ask that we should care about this concept? Well, chirality can affect how a molecule binds to an enzyme. A left-handed molecule may bind well to an enzyme, while the right-handed molecule doesn't bind well at all, or vice versa. One enantiomer may provide a therapeutic effect, while the other may actually be toxic.

Adderall is a mixture of enantiomers. It's made up of 75% dextroamphetamine and 25% levoamphetamine. Dextroamphetamine is the more potent of the two, but the other enantiomer has its uses too. Even if it didn't, as long as it wasn't toxic, its presence wouldn't matter. Separating enantiomers is a difficult and costly process, so since the racemic mixture, which is what a mixture of enantiomers is called, of amphetamines is safe, that's what it's sold as**. In case you're wondering, Adderall isn't the same thing as crystal meth, but it's very, very close. Simply methylating the nitrogen (the "N") of the amphetamine molecule converts it to methamphetamine, which is the chemical name of crystal meth. Compared to Adderall, crystal meth is more neurotoxic and addictive, which is why it isn't prescribed. That, combined with its effects as an aphrodisiac and euphorant, is why it's a banned substance. Adderall, as we all know, is legal and safe when used responsibly, and not nearly as addictive as its methylated analogue. Amphetamines are actually a clear liquid. That's not amenable for human dosing, so the compound is reacted with hydrochloric acid in order to form a solid salt.

The pharmacology of amphetamines is pretty advanced, but if you’re really interested, I’d advise starting with the Wikipedia entry here.

END GORY CHEMISTRY

As is common knowledge among baseball fans, amphetamines, or "greenies" as they were called, were consumed like popcorn in the older days of baseball. There were clubhouses where it was the job of one of the attendants to make sure the bowl or jar of greenies was always kept full. Even all-time greats like Willie Mays and Hank Aaron have admitted to taking amphetamines.

The baseball season is a long, grueling marathon. It's 162 games long with only 18 days off, with a bunch of travel mixed in. Yes, baseball players get to travel on fancy chartered flights, but they frequently travel late at night and don't get to their destinations until the wee hours of the morning. They get what little sleep they can, and they get ready to play again that night. When that's what your life is like, you need all the help you can get to stay energized and focused. Let me be clear, though, that I'm neither condemning nor condoning the use of amphetamines. I'm simply explaining the rationale behind the players' motives. Of course, there's more to it than that. Amphetamines are considered to be a performance enhancing drug (PED). We'll get to the PED characteristics of the drug shortly.

Despite the fact that Adderall is a controlled substance and a suspected PED, a ballplayer is allowed to take amphetamines if he gets a Therapeutic Use Exemption (TUE) from MLB. Getting the TUE isn’t as simple as it used to be, as evidenced by Davis’s recent difficulties in obtaining one.

The way it used to work, a player just needed a prescription from an independent doctor. That’s not hard to do. Remember, there's no purely objective test for ADHD. It’s not like it’s something that can be diagnosed by testing your blood or taking a CT scan of your brain. Basically, if you don't actually have it, you just have to be very convincing. The fact of the matter is that all you have to do is to keep trying until a doctor will give you what you want. If one doctor shoots you down, just try another one. MLB won’t know of all the doctors that say no, just the one that says yes. Sadly, this also works with other drugs such as SSRIs and benzodiazapenes.

In 2011, realizing that they had left a loophole the size of Petco Park in their Adderall policy, the owners and the MLBPA worked out an agreement to increase the difficulty of obtaining a TUE. The new process involves as many as six psychiatrists conducting a multitude of interviews. Not only does this process do a better job in scrutinizing TUE applicants, it probably also succeeds in dissuading false applicants. This crackdown affected Davis when he was traded to the Orioles. He was granted a TUE during his time with the Texas Rangers. An important point to make is that it was not concluded that Davis had been cheating the system, but simply that the evidence was found not to be sufficient enough to continue his TUE.

According to a recent issue of the journal “Expert Review of Neurotherapeutics," somewhere between 2-5% of adults have ADHD. In MLB, that number is around 12%. Suspicious, huh? It certainly looks like the vast majority of players are still slipping through the cracks of stricter system. As mentioned before, there is no objective methodology to diagnose ADHD. As long as MLB continues to operate in this grey area of theirs, players denied a TUE are going to continue to risk taking Adderall anyway, which will unfairly label them as “cheaters” when the only difference between them and those with a TUE is a technicality.

One could make the argument that MLB might as well either completely legalize the drug or completely ban it. However, fully legalizing the drug could just raise all the same criticism that MLB suffered for allowing the steroid era, not to mention the health issues that could arise among players who would abuse Adderall without any restrictions in place. On the flip side, banning Adderall may just lead to the abuse of other stimulants such as Ritalin and Wellbutrin. How about simple caffeine pills? How do you regulate that?

Back to Davis. He ended up getting suspended because this was his SECOND violation. You only get a warning for the first offense. So why did Davis continue using after his first violation? There are three possibilities:
  1. He's not very bright. (Which I don’t believe.) 
  2. He's addicted. 
  3. He legitimately has ADD/ADHD, and therefore has a medical need to continue using.
From what I've read, Davis may really have had ADHD. Even if that's true, I'm sure he didn't mind the stimulative effects of the drug. It could be a mixture of the three reasons I gave. It's all speculative, and really, it's not that important. If Davis couldn't get the TUE, then he should've stopped using. While he was expected to regress some from his monster 2013 season, he was still expected to be a major contributor and an important part of the 2014 Orioles, and doing something that could get him suspended at any time was selfish and careless. Thankfully for O's fans, due to his dismal season, and what at the time was a huge 11.5 game lead in the AL East, Davis's absence has had a minimal impact.

Amphetamines as a PED has been a hot button topic in recent years. Like steroids, the "evidence" against them is anecdotal. It has been scientifically proven that Adderall will boost energy, focus, and cognitive abilities. The same cannot be said about its capability to boost baseball performance. Although steroids draw more ire from baseball fans, I'd argue that at least for position players, amphetamines are more of a PED than steroids. This is absolutely only a theory of mine. It is an untested hypothesis and therefore I have no scientific evidence to back this up. My reasoning is that a drug that boosts your energy and focus will boost a player's hit tool, i.e., make him a better hitter. Steroids can only boost your power, and the hit tool is more important than power. It's also reasonable to assume that it will boost a player's fielding skills. Again, being more alert and focused will help with fielding the ball better. Steroids may be able to help you throw harder, but range and fielding is more important than arm strength. For all you anti-steroid fans out there, think about this next time you condemn a player for steroid use, and don't forget the number of Hall of Famers that have readily admitted to taking greenies.

Players don’t seem to realize the dangers of amphetamine abuse. We’re all aware of the addictive dangers of the drug. What players need to be aware of is that taking too many amphetamines will IMPEDE physical performance. It can elevate your body temperature, which is more serious for athletes in other sports, but it can also lead to the rapid degeneration of muscles. Psychosis can even develop in amphetamine abusers.

I think it's absolutely unfair to call Chris Davis a cheater. There's no difference between Davis and all the players with a TUE. Furthermore, if Davis really does have ADHD, he's certainly less of a "cheater" than players who are faking the condition so that they can legally take Adderall.

While I'm on the subject of Chris Davis, I'd like to touch upon his season a little bit. Last season, Davis had a breakout year. He hit an excellent .286/.370/.634, good for a 168 wRC+ and 6.1 WAR. He also led the league with 53 HR and 370 total bases. His success was due to a mechanical adjustment in his swing. The power was always there, he was just finally able to make the contact necessary to make use of that power. Going into this season, he was expected to regress some. PECOTA had him projected at .259/.324/.479. I originally thought that was a bit of an extreme regression. The projection systems were taking his pre-2013 seasons into account, and obviously couldn't know of the adjustments he made at the plate. As it turns out, PECOTA was being too kind. This season, Davis has been terrible, hitting .196/.300/.404 with "only" 26 home runs. That's just a 93 wRC+. On the bright side, he is hitting for a lot of power, but it's not enough to overcome the low AVG and OBP. That power has barely kept him above replacement level offensively.

So what happened? Jeff Sullivan wrote a good piece for FanGraphs exploring this question, and it's well worth your time. With all due respect to Sullivan, I think the answer is simpler than he's proposing. For starters, he does have a .242 BABIP, which is almost 80 points below that of his career. All that bad batted ball luck will certainly normalize. Baseball Prospectus got a quote from a scout that explains things further:
His timing is off; his hands and wrists aren't working; he's a mess. It's to the point where you hope he's been playing with some sort of undisclosed injury this year, because even the batting practice displays are uncomfortable.
It looks like he's either hurt, or he got his mechanics all out of whack again. Add that statement to his low BABIP and natural regression, and you get a simple explanation for his struggles this year. The power is absolutely, positively still there. I don't believe we'll ever see 2013 Chris Davis again. I do think he's a mechanical adjustment and improved plate approach away from becoming an effective slugger again. I'm making it sound more trivial than it really is, but I think there's still the potential for a 4 WAR player in there.

Hopefully going into next season, Davis will get healthy (if that is the problem), make the adjustments he needs, and get that TUE he needs. I'm optimistic that he can once again become a major contributor to the Baltimore Orioles next season, and if they're lucky, maybe he can make an impact late in the ALCS or the World Series.

* Chemists don't use those terms. We use more technical terms, the explanation of which is probably too involved for a simple baseball column.

** That doesn't fly anymore. The FDA won't approve drugs that are a racemic mixture.

Reference:
  • Ramos-Quiroga, Josep Antoni; Nasillo, Viviana; Fernandez-Aranda, Fernando; Casas, Miguel, "Addressing the lack of studies in attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in adults," Expert Review of Neurotherapeutics (2014), 14(5), 553-567.