We already know the Orioles have a Mark Trumbo problem. He's about to complete the worst offensive season of his career, and while it's not impossible that the O's are able to move him and the two years left on his contract, it won't be easy and will require them to take on at least one bad contract in return.
Still, unlike Chris Davis (who was fine), Trumbo was very good offensively just last season (125 wRC+). When you look at the Statcast data for Trumbo, this season looks truly awful.
Batted ball data for Mark Trumbo (via Baseball Savant):
2015: 92.1 avg. EV, 183 avg. distance, 6.8 barrels/PA
2016: 92.7 avg. EV, 196 avg. distance, 10.5 barrels/PA
2017: 89.7 avg. EV, 171 avg. distance, 4.7 barrels/PA
(The above numbers are average exit velocity, average distance (in feet), and barreled batted balls divided by plate appearances. Barrels, for reference, are "batted-ball events whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage." A barreled ball must be hit at least 98 mph.)
Even if it doesn't feel like it right now, there's still some hope that Trumbo will hit again next season. That doesn't mean he fits well on the O's roster - it's tough to deploy a bad outfielder who doesn't hit well at DH, and it's not like the O's would ever platoon Davis and Trumbo - but at worst, Trumbo will be around for just the next two seasons. Davis's issues, however, are even more concerning because he's under contract through 2022. He's supposed to be the star.
Davis has always been a streaky, up-and-down hitter, but this will be the first time he's had consecutive, full-time seasons in which his numbers have gone down.
wRC+ data for Chris Davis (via FanGraphs)
2012: 121 wRC+
2013: 168
2014: 94
2015: 149
2016: 112
2017: 93
You don't ever want to count out someone who's just 31 years old, but the Statcast data doesn't paint a rosy picture, either.
Batted ball data for Chris Davis (via Baseball Savant):
2015: 91.9 avg. EV, 217 avg. distance, 9.9 barrels/PA
2016: 90.8 avg. EV, 213 avg. distance, 9.0 barrels/PA
2017: 89.9 avg. EV, 204 avg. distance, 6.5 barrels/PA
The excuse for the production dip in 2016 was an injured hand that Davis dealt with for nearly the entire season. Davis never went on the disabled list and toughed it out the whole year. His hand seems fine now, but Davis did spend about a month on the disabled list from mid-June to mid-July with an oblique injury. Regardless, even with a couple of decent stretches, he never seemed quite right. What is there to really say about his pitch recognition skills when he misses a month of the season and still leads the majors in strikeouts looking by a comfortable margin?
You don't need me to tell you that the Davis deal, which already seemed questionable at best when it was announced, is looking catastrophic right now. Davis could bounce back, but how much? The Orioles weren't hoping for him to land somewhere in the 100-110 wRC+ range for the first few years of his deal, and he's managed to be even worse than that in 2017. You don't ever want to discount all of what a player brings to the table, and Davis is pretty good with the glove and has become excellent at scooping bad throws. But his glove does not add nearly enough for what his bat is subtracting (that goes for every defender at first), and the O's didn't sign him to such a huge deal because he saves infielders some errors.
As a first baseman, Davis is at a stage in his career when he could start looking old very fast. You knew it was coming, but just maybe not this quickly.
(I didn't see it until yesterday evening, but Camden Chat also wrote about the Davis/Trumbo conundrum. Give it a read.)
27 September 2017
26 September 2017
Austin Hays, 20th OF Taken in the 2016 Draft
Ever since Nick Markakis took a mid-winter train to Georgia, the Orioles have struggled to figure out what to do with right field. A motley crew of Mark Trumbo, Seth Smith, Nolan Reimold, Travis Snider, Joey Rickard, Alejandro de Aza, Gerardo Parra, and some other guys have been able to put up a fWAR of 0.6 while Nick plugs along delivering a cumulative 3.3 fWAR for just a couple million more per season. It, sadly, was not one of the better outcomes for the Orioles in that they failed so completely in finding a replacement as opposed to Markakis really doing much of anything down in Atlanta.
However, now the Orioles have experienced some measure of hope. Austin Hays was selected in the third round of the 2016 and has been on a rocket ride to the majors. It has been a stunningly quick development and one that could greatly aid the franchise in maintaining it recent winning ways. However, what we are seeing right now was in no way foreseen last year.
At the time of the draft, Austin Hays was considered a true five tool player, but not someone you think about when you think about five tools. In JuCo, he showed the ability to hit, have power, run well, cover ground in the outfield, and show a decent arm. Everything was there, but none of the tools could carry him forward alone. The concern was that he would need each tool to carry over to the next level and beyond. Generally, when you see a five tool player, you see one tool having the potential to break out and dominate. You may look for light tower power, incredible plate coverage, or excellent defense at a prime position. Hays had none of this and that is why he dropped to the third round.
When you look at the 19 outfielders taken before him, you see several guys who have some loud tools. A guy like Mickey Moniak has incredible bat control. Corey Ray has power and great athleticism. Deeper down you see similar things. Jake Fraley looks to be an excellent defensive center fielder. That is generally what you see, guys with a carrying tool as opposed to Hays who was an all around JuCo player. Those guys tend not to break out.
Well, Hays broke out in an incredibly interesting way. In general, evaluation models view each rung of the professional ladder to be increasingly difficult. This is quantified by looking at players playing at one level who then move up. As a population, performance decreases as you move up. Hays began at A+, did well, and then moved up to AA. You tend to expect a decrease in performance of about 20% in general. A jump to AAA would result typically in a drop of 10%. The move from AAA to MLB also is about a 10% reduction.
Now, those are generic values of a highly encapsulated metric. You certainly can have a player who can dominate AA or AAA, who lacks the ability to succeed at an MLB level. A player may well be able to feast on lower quality talent at those rungs while just getting by against true MLB quality players. Or a player can fly under the radar for longer as scouting reports take longer to catch up with MiL players than MLB players. So what did Hays do?
Hays dominated A+. He experienced zero decrease in performance at AA, outperforming the expectation by around 20%. In a handful of at bats, Hays has shown some ability in the majors, performing about 23% better than expected. To be obvious and succinct, Hays has had an impressive year.
Based on my discussions with scouts, it appears that what was missed on Hays was how good his hit tool actually was. Coming out of JuCo, he did have a more polished approach than most draftees selected in the top three rounds, but it was still a swing that would require some adjustment to a wood bat. That adjustment went without any growing pains and with all his batting attributes translating over. It was unexpected and something the Orioles did not expect either or else they would have selected him much higher.
That said, if his hit tool is more on the 60-65 end than on the 50 end, he looks much more like a MLB player than he did before. The only lingering issue we see if that he appears to be relatively unable to walk. Typically, MLB quality pitchers are able to paint outside the corners well enough where batters either die swinging or learn to sit back and earn some walks. So there is some concern that Hays could turn into a Jeff Francoeur without the arm.
Looking ahead to 2018, it would be a shock if Austin Hays is not handed the right field position at the start of Spring Training. However, it would be aggressively foolish for the club to have no suitable Plan B waiting in the wings. Hays has been tearing through the leagues, but he is a hitter who depends heavily on being able to cover the entire strike zone without holding back to earn walks. That is a profile that is uncommon and, when seen, tends to lead to failure. It would benefit the club to find a fourth or fifth outfield option to hedge their bets.
Internally, Cedric Mullins might be able to fill that role. He was the guy before the year who the front office name dropped repeatedly to local writers as being one of the best prospects in the system. We noted him two years ago with a ceiling of league average centerfielder, but more likely as a 4th or 5th outfielder type. To be a dependable second option would have required a strong season and a promotion to Norfolk, but injuries and a downturn in performance kept Mullins in Bowie.
Beyond Mullins, the free agent market could provide some opportunities. A player like Jarrod Dyson could be an option. He is a heavy strong side platoon option who is capable of playing all three outfield positions well. He would be able to take over the lion's share of Hays' innings if Hays struggles as well as giving the club a very strong late inning defensive outfield. If Hays succeeds, Dyson could be pushed around the outfield to provide rest to Mancini, Jones, and Hays.
A tighter fit would be a player like Curtis Granderson. Granderson is in the decline phase of his career. He can capably play left and right field as well as being able to still hit the ball a ton. However, he is used to holding a starter's share of innings and plate appearances. It would prove to be harder to find him innings if the entire outfield hits the ground running.
Regardless, the Orioles are in a better looking position now than they were at the beginning of the season with respect to right field in 2018 and beyond. Hays may well be a solution for a position that has been difficult for the club to solve since Markakis departed. Perhaps Hays will succeed. Perhaps Hays can be the club's next Nick Markakis.
However, now the Orioles have experienced some measure of hope. Austin Hays was selected in the third round of the 2016 and has been on a rocket ride to the majors. It has been a stunningly quick development and one that could greatly aid the franchise in maintaining it recent winning ways. However, what we are seeing right now was in no way foreseen last year.
At the time of the draft, Austin Hays was considered a true five tool player, but not someone you think about when you think about five tools. In JuCo, he showed the ability to hit, have power, run well, cover ground in the outfield, and show a decent arm. Everything was there, but none of the tools could carry him forward alone. The concern was that he would need each tool to carry over to the next level and beyond. Generally, when you see a five tool player, you see one tool having the potential to break out and dominate. You may look for light tower power, incredible plate coverage, or excellent defense at a prime position. Hays had none of this and that is why he dropped to the third round.
When you look at the 19 outfielders taken before him, you see several guys who have some loud tools. A guy like Mickey Moniak has incredible bat control. Corey Ray has power and great athleticism. Deeper down you see similar things. Jake Fraley looks to be an excellent defensive center fielder. That is generally what you see, guys with a carrying tool as opposed to Hays who was an all around JuCo player. Those guys tend not to break out.
| Pick | Name | School | Team | Class | YrAA |
| 1 | Mickey Moniak | HS | Phillies | A | -2.5 |
| 5 | Corey Ray | 4Yr | Brewers | A+ | -0.6 |
| 11 | Kyle Lewis | 4Yr | Mariners | A+ | -1.6 |
| 14 | Will Benson | HS | Indians | A- | -2 |
| 15 | Alex Kirilloff | HS | Twins | Rk(Inj) | -1.5 |
| 18 | Blake Rutherford | HS | Yankees | A | -1.5 |
| 33 | Dylan Carlson | HS | Cardinals | A | -3.2 |
| 35 | Taylor Trammell | HS | Reds | A | -2.2 |
| 39 | Anfernee Grier | 4Yr | Dbacks | A | -0.2 |
| 48 | Buddy Reed | 4Yr | Padres | A | 0.8 |
| 53 | Ryan Boldt | 4Yr | Rays | A+ | -0.7 |
| 57 | J.B. Woodman | 4Yr | Blue Jays | A | 0.8 |
| 59 | Bryan Reynolds | 4Yr | Giants | A+ | -0.6 |
| 60 | Brandon Marsh | HS | Angels | Rk | -1.7 |
| 61 | Ronnie Dawson | 4Yr | Astros | A+ | -0.6 |
| 74 | Akil Baddoo | HS | Twins | Rk | -2.4 |
| 77 | Jake Fraley | 4Yr | Rays | A+ | -0.7 |
| 84 | Thomas Jones | HS | Marlins | A- | -2 |
| 86 | Alex Call | 4Yr | White Sox | A+ | -0.6 |
| 91 | Austin Hays | 4Yr | Orioles | MLB | -7.7 |
Now, those are generic values of a highly encapsulated metric. You certainly can have a player who can dominate AA or AAA, who lacks the ability to succeed at an MLB level. A player may well be able to feast on lower quality talent at those rungs while just getting by against true MLB quality players. Or a player can fly under the radar for longer as scouting reports take longer to catch up with MiL players than MLB players. So what did Hays do?
| Tm | Lev | PA | BA | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | MLB | 32 | .290 | .313 | .452 |
| Bowie | AA | 283 | .330 | .367 | .594 |
| Frederick | A+ | 280 | .328 | .364 | .592 |
Hays dominated A+. He experienced zero decrease in performance at AA, outperforming the expectation by around 20%. In a handful of at bats, Hays has shown some ability in the majors, performing about 23% better than expected. To be obvious and succinct, Hays has had an impressive year.
Based on my discussions with scouts, it appears that what was missed on Hays was how good his hit tool actually was. Coming out of JuCo, he did have a more polished approach than most draftees selected in the top three rounds, but it was still a swing that would require some adjustment to a wood bat. That adjustment went without any growing pains and with all his batting attributes translating over. It was unexpected and something the Orioles did not expect either or else they would have selected him much higher.
That said, if his hit tool is more on the 60-65 end than on the 50 end, he looks much more like a MLB player than he did before. The only lingering issue we see if that he appears to be relatively unable to walk. Typically, MLB quality pitchers are able to paint outside the corners well enough where batters either die swinging or learn to sit back and earn some walks. So there is some concern that Hays could turn into a Jeff Francoeur without the arm.
Looking ahead to 2018, it would be a shock if Austin Hays is not handed the right field position at the start of Spring Training. However, it would be aggressively foolish for the club to have no suitable Plan B waiting in the wings. Hays has been tearing through the leagues, but he is a hitter who depends heavily on being able to cover the entire strike zone without holding back to earn walks. That is a profile that is uncommon and, when seen, tends to lead to failure. It would benefit the club to find a fourth or fifth outfield option to hedge their bets.
Internally, Cedric Mullins might be able to fill that role. He was the guy before the year who the front office name dropped repeatedly to local writers as being one of the best prospects in the system. We noted him two years ago with a ceiling of league average centerfielder, but more likely as a 4th or 5th outfielder type. To be a dependable second option would have required a strong season and a promotion to Norfolk, but injuries and a downturn in performance kept Mullins in Bowie.
Beyond Mullins, the free agent market could provide some opportunities. A player like Jarrod Dyson could be an option. He is a heavy strong side platoon option who is capable of playing all three outfield positions well. He would be able to take over the lion's share of Hays' innings if Hays struggles as well as giving the club a very strong late inning defensive outfield. If Hays succeeds, Dyson could be pushed around the outfield to provide rest to Mancini, Jones, and Hays.
A tighter fit would be a player like Curtis Granderson. Granderson is in the decline phase of his career. He can capably play left and right field as well as being able to still hit the ball a ton. However, he is used to holding a starter's share of innings and plate appearances. It would prove to be harder to find him innings if the entire outfield hits the ground running.
Regardless, the Orioles are in a better looking position now than they were at the beginning of the season with respect to right field in 2018 and beyond. Hays may well be a solution for a position that has been difficult for the club to solve since Markakis departed. Perhaps Hays will succeed. Perhaps Hays can be the club's next Nick Markakis.
25 September 2017
What to Make of Gabriel Ynoa
Joe Reisel's Archives
While the play of Austin Hays and Chance Sisco have provided Orioles' fans some hope for the future, the past couple of Gabriel Ynoa's starts have also been positive. On September 15, at Yankee Stadium, Ynoa pitched 4 1/3 innings, giving up 3 runs (2 earned) - which doesn't seem all that impressive until you compare it to some of the other Orioles' starts in that series. And on September 21, Ynoa pitched eight innings against Tampa Bay and gave up only 1 run; an impressive outing by any standard.
People who follow the Norfolk Tides are quite likely stunned by Ynoa's performances, because Ynoa spent much of the 2017 season at Norfolk and, for much of the season, was on the pace for a memorable season. Unfortunately, it was going to be a memorably awful season, a season we share with interns when they note that a starting pitcher is having a bad year. (The gold standard for those seasons in the Orioles' Era is Brandon Erbe's 2010, in which he went 0-10 with a 5.73 ERA. In my first year as a Tides' datacaster, the Tides were still affiliated with the New York Mets, and Jason Scobie went 1-11, 7.91.) After Ynoa's July 7 start, his record was 1-8, 7.64; and I was wondering how Ynoa could have been a Top Ten prospect in the Mets' organization.
However, following his July 7 start - which was his last AAA start before the all-star break, for what that's worth - Ynoa pitched much better. He went 5-1, 2.87; which was enough to bring his final season line to 6-9, 5.25. That's not a good year by any means, but it's not memorably awful. This saga, and his late-season major-league performance, brings up several questions, the biggest one being "Can Gabriel Ynoa be a useful starting pitcher for the Orioles in 2018?"
Of the 45 Tides games I saw in 2017, Gabriel Ynoa was the starting pitcher in six - four in his "bad" first part and two in his "good" second part. In the rest of this article, I will look at some of the details of those six starts.
All of the column headers should be self-explanatory except the last, which is "Batters Faced Pitcher" - the number of batters he faced. The April 29 start was his only good start before the all-star break, and the July 28 start was really his only bad start after the all-star break. The two most interesting things are (1) he had good control with only five walks in these six starts and (2) when he pitched well, he was able to work into the seventh inning and go through the lineup three times with consistency. The Tides rarely let a starting pitcher throw 100 pitches, and Ynoa threw that many pitches only in the April 29 start. So, when Ynoa's pitching well, he's efficient.
Next, I'll take a look at the results of the plate appearances against Ynoa. I don't differentiate between batters reaching base and batters being retired on batted balls here. Also, there are a couple of bunt ground balls that I arbitrarily lumped in with other ground balls, and the distinction between "fly balls" and "line drives" is somewhat arbitrary.
We can see that Ynoa is not a ground-ball pitcher; more balls are are hit in the air than on the ground. To the extent that we can draw any conclusions from six starts, it appears that he might be more effective when balls are hit in the air than on the ground. That works well in Harbor Park with its expansive power alleys, but may be less likely to work in Camden Yards.
Finally, I'll look at Ynoa's pitch results:
The striking thing here is that, with the exception of August 19, Ynoa got few swinging strikes and many foul balls. This is consistent with his reputation as a pitcher with okay but not great stuff. Batters are able to make contact with his pitches, even if by fouling them off. But, on the other hand, as we noted above, he's able to go deep into games with fewer than 100 pitches. Give that, he's unlikely that the batters are fouling off good pitches, lengthening at-bats and running up pitch counts. Rather, it appears that Ynoa is pitching to contact, relying on his defense to get outs.
It's almost impossible for Ynoa to be as bad as he was in the first half of 2017. From 2012 through 2016, Baseball America ranked Ynoa among the top 20 prospects in the Mets' organization. That's more in line with his post All-Star break performance. If we assume that his first half was the aberration, then Gabriel Ynoa would be reasonable candidate for a fifth starter job. He's got a chance to hold that job, but he'd have to pitch well our of the gate and it's rare for pitchers like him to do so.
While the play of Austin Hays and Chance Sisco have provided Orioles' fans some hope for the future, the past couple of Gabriel Ynoa's starts have also been positive. On September 15, at Yankee Stadium, Ynoa pitched 4 1/3 innings, giving up 3 runs (2 earned) - which doesn't seem all that impressive until you compare it to some of the other Orioles' starts in that series. And on September 21, Ynoa pitched eight innings against Tampa Bay and gave up only 1 run; an impressive outing by any standard.
People who follow the Norfolk Tides are quite likely stunned by Ynoa's performances, because Ynoa spent much of the 2017 season at Norfolk and, for much of the season, was on the pace for a memorable season. Unfortunately, it was going to be a memorably awful season, a season we share with interns when they note that a starting pitcher is having a bad year. (The gold standard for those seasons in the Orioles' Era is Brandon Erbe's 2010, in which he went 0-10 with a 5.73 ERA. In my first year as a Tides' datacaster, the Tides were still affiliated with the New York Mets, and Jason Scobie went 1-11, 7.91.) After Ynoa's July 7 start, his record was 1-8, 7.64; and I was wondering how Ynoa could have been a Top Ten prospect in the Mets' organization.
However, following his July 7 start - which was his last AAA start before the all-star break, for what that's worth - Ynoa pitched much better. He went 5-1, 2.87; which was enough to bring his final season line to 6-9, 5.25. That's not a good year by any means, but it's not memorably awful. This saga, and his late-season major-league performance, brings up several questions, the biggest one being "Can Gabriel Ynoa be a useful starting pitcher for the Orioles in 2018?"
Of the 45 Tides games I saw in 2017, Gabriel Ynoa was the starting pitcher in six - four in his "bad" first part and two in his "good" second part. In the rest of this article, I will look at some of the details of those six starts.
First, the basic "box score" pitching lines:
Date
|
Opp
|
IP
|
H
|
R
|
ER
|
BB
|
K
|
BFP
|
Apr 29
|
Syracuse
|
6 1/3
|
6
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
4
|
25
|
May 31
|
Pawtucket
|
4 1/3
|
7
|
3
|
3
|
0
|
2
|
20
|
Jun 27
|
Louisville
|
3 2/3
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
2
|
2
|
18
|
Jul 2
|
Durham
|
6 2/3
|
7
|
6
|
4
|
2
|
3
|
27
|
Jul 28
|
Columbus
|
6 2/3
|
8
|
5
|
5
|
0
|
4
|
28
|
Aug 19
|
Toledo
|
7
|
5
|
3
|
3
|
0
|
5
|
26
|
Next, I'll take a look at the results of the plate appearances against Ynoa. I don't differentiate between batters reaching base and batters being retired on batted balls here. Also, there are a couple of bunt ground balls that I arbitrarily lumped in with other ground balls, and the distinction between "fly balls" and "line drives" is somewhat arbitrary.
Date
|
Ground
Ball
|
Line
Drive
|
Fly
Ball
|
Walk
|
Strikeout
|
Apr 24
|
6
|
4
|
10
|
1
|
4
|
May 31
|
11
|
2
|
5
|
0
|
2
|
Jun 27
|
6
|
2
|
6
|
2
|
2
|
Jul 2
|
8
|
4
|
12
|
2
|
3
|
Jul 28
|
11
|
1
|
12
|
0
|
4
|
Aug 19
|
6
|
3
|
12
|
0
|
5
|
We can see that Ynoa is not a ground-ball pitcher; more balls are are hit in the air than on the ground. To the extent that we can draw any conclusions from six starts, it appears that he might be more effective when balls are hit in the air than on the ground. That works well in Harbor Park with its expansive power alleys, but may be less likely to work in Camden Yards.
Finally, I'll look at Ynoa's pitch results:
Date
|
Ball
|
Called
Strike
|
Swinging
Strike
|
Foul
|
In
Play
|
Apr 24
|
37
|
19
|
9
|
15
|
20
|
May 31
|
21
|
14
|
5
|
11
|
18
|
Jun 27
|
25
|
14
|
5
|
22
|
14
|
Jul 2
|
31
|
17
|
7
|
12
|
25
|
Jul 28
|
32
|
17
|
8
|
16
|
24
|
Aug 19
|
27
|
14
|
16
|
10
|
22
|
It's almost impossible for Ynoa to be as bad as he was in the first half of 2017. From 2012 through 2016, Baseball America ranked Ynoa among the top 20 prospects in the Mets' organization. That's more in line with his post All-Star break performance. If we assume that his first half was the aberration, then Gabriel Ynoa would be reasonable candidate for a fifth starter job. He's got a chance to hold that job, but he'd have to pitch well our of the gate and it's rare for pitchers like him to do so.
21 September 2017
An Appreciation Of J.J. Hardy
Before the Orioles acquired J.J. Hardy at the end of 2010, they had struggled mightily for a few years to find even a decent replacement at shortstop for the departed Miguel Tejada. After being traded before the 2008 season, Tejada returned to the Orioles in 2010 to play third base (pretty poorly) before he was dealt once again, this time to the Padres at the trade deadline. Tejada even signed with the Orioles one more time, in 2012, but he was never promoted to the majors and was released a few months later.
But this post isn't about Miguel Tejada. It's about Hardy. In the three seasons before Hardy arrived (2008-2010), the Orioles assembled the worst group of shortstops in all of baseball. By FanGraphs' version of WAR, the Mariners had the second-worst production from their shortstops in that span (-1.3). The Orioles, at -4.5, were more than three wins worse. (Baseball-Reference had the O's not quite as terrible, at -2.4 WAR over that span.) The list of nine shortstops during that run was, let's say, uninspiring: Robert Andino, Cesar Izturis (the best of the group), Luis Hernandez, Eider Torres, Julio Lugo, Alex Cintron, Brandon Fahey, Freddie Bynum, and Juan Castro. Some of those men could field well; none of them were very good hitters.
For whatever reason, the Twins wanted to move on from Hardy and the one year of arbitration left on his contract after the 2010 season. Andy MacPhail, then-president of baseball operations, took advantage, shipping Brett Jacobson and Jim Hoey to the Twins in exchange for Hardy and Brendan Harris.
That season, Hardy posted one of his best offensive campaigns (113 wRC+) en route to a 4+ WAR season (by both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference). But before that season had even ended, the O's signed Hardy to a relatively rare in-season extension in July. The deal was for three years and $22.25 million, and Hardy easily surpassed that value over the next few seasons (9 fWAR combined from 2012-2014).
The Orioles and Hardy weren't about to part ways yet. Right before the team's 2014 ALCS matchup against the Royals, Hardy signed another three-year extension, for $40 million (and a vesting option for 2018). This time, though, things didn't go nearly as well. After carrying such a huge workload the past few seasons - and in 2012 and 2013 in particular, when he played in 158 and 159 games, respectively - Hardy both struggled to stay healthy and produce at the plate.
He spent the first month of the 2015 season on the disabled list with a strained left shoulder, and he went on to post a career low (until this season) 51 wRC+. He maintained a solid glove, though, and bounced back at the plate next season (89 wRC+). He missed another month-plus during 2016 with a fractured left foot. In the meantime, back issues continued to plague him. Before the 2017 season started, he talked openly about his back pain and inability at times to find relief. Then, after getting off to an extremely slow start at the plate, he broke his right wrist in mid-June.
Obviously it was a shame to see Hardy get injured again. But in a sad way it was also a relief, because while there weren't many good options to replace him, there was also a reasonable case for Hardy shifting to the bench more often. The injury allowed the Orioles to avoid a major decision, and they may have even acquired their starting shortstop for the next few seasons.
The door is almost closed on Hardy's time in Baltimore, but he should always be recognized as one of the players who helped the Orioles in their return quest to relevancy. Besides his quality play for a number of years, the notoriously slow-footed Hardy also scored the winning run in the most exciting, feel-good postseason moment of the Buck Showalter/Dan Duquette era:
Listen to that crowd. Hardy didn't go out on top with the Orioles, as few rarely do. Hopefully his playing career isn't over, but even if it is, he helped to give many fans some wonderful memories. Whether that's a moral victory or not, it still matters.
But this post isn't about Miguel Tejada. It's about Hardy. In the three seasons before Hardy arrived (2008-2010), the Orioles assembled the worst group of shortstops in all of baseball. By FanGraphs' version of WAR, the Mariners had the second-worst production from their shortstops in that span (-1.3). The Orioles, at -4.5, were more than three wins worse. (Baseball-Reference had the O's not quite as terrible, at -2.4 WAR over that span.) The list of nine shortstops during that run was, let's say, uninspiring: Robert Andino, Cesar Izturis (the best of the group), Luis Hernandez, Eider Torres, Julio Lugo, Alex Cintron, Brandon Fahey, Freddie Bynum, and Juan Castro. Some of those men could field well; none of them were very good hitters.
For whatever reason, the Twins wanted to move on from Hardy and the one year of arbitration left on his contract after the 2010 season. Andy MacPhail, then-president of baseball operations, took advantage, shipping Brett Jacobson and Jim Hoey to the Twins in exchange for Hardy and Brendan Harris.
That season, Hardy posted one of his best offensive campaigns (113 wRC+) en route to a 4+ WAR season (by both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference). But before that season had even ended, the O's signed Hardy to a relatively rare in-season extension in July. The deal was for three years and $22.25 million, and Hardy easily surpassed that value over the next few seasons (9 fWAR combined from 2012-2014).
The Orioles and Hardy weren't about to part ways yet. Right before the team's 2014 ALCS matchup against the Royals, Hardy signed another three-year extension, for $40 million (and a vesting option for 2018). This time, though, things didn't go nearly as well. After carrying such a huge workload the past few seasons - and in 2012 and 2013 in particular, when he played in 158 and 159 games, respectively - Hardy both struggled to stay healthy and produce at the plate.
He spent the first month of the 2015 season on the disabled list with a strained left shoulder, and he went on to post a career low (until this season) 51 wRC+. He maintained a solid glove, though, and bounced back at the plate next season (89 wRC+). He missed another month-plus during 2016 with a fractured left foot. In the meantime, back issues continued to plague him. Before the 2017 season started, he talked openly about his back pain and inability at times to find relief. Then, after getting off to an extremely slow start at the plate, he broke his right wrist in mid-June.
Obviously it was a shame to see Hardy get injured again. But in a sad way it was also a relief, because while there weren't many good options to replace him, there was also a reasonable case for Hardy shifting to the bench more often. The injury allowed the Orioles to avoid a major decision, and they may have even acquired their starting shortstop for the next few seasons.
The door is almost closed on Hardy's time in Baltimore, but he should always be recognized as one of the players who helped the Orioles in their return quest to relevancy. Besides his quality play for a number of years, the notoriously slow-footed Hardy also scored the winning run in the most exciting, feel-good postseason moment of the Buck Showalter/Dan Duquette era:
Listen to that crowd. Hardy didn't go out on top with the Orioles, as few rarely do. Hopefully his playing career isn't over, but even if it is, he helped to give many fans some wonderful memories. Whether that's a moral victory or not, it still matters.
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