Short Rundown of the Yamaico Navarro Deal

Yamaico Navarro is on the move again.  He tantalized Boston for several years showing plus power with adequate power and plate discipline from the SS position.  However, he frustrated them for his nonchalant manner in keeping himself in shape.  After a couple short trials at the MLB level, Boston gave up on him and traded him to the Royals with Kendal Volz for Mike Aviles.  You could call both Navarro and Volz as C level prospects.  The Royals gave up on him after half a season and traded him for Brooks Pounders and Diego Goris.  Goris is a non-prospect by this point as he has developed not a trace of plate discipline as a 21 year old in rookie ball.  The Royals converted Pounders to a starting pitcher where he has worked himself to a C+ level as a prospect.  Now, with the Orioles...he earns the Pirates Jhondaniel Medina who is in line as a C level prospect.  With this swapping perspective, it appears to me that Navarro is a commodity of decreasing value.

Navarro's decrease in value is related to a couple things.  First, as he has accumulated 383 plate appearances in the majors and will be 26 next year.  The promise he showed as a 20 year old breaking out in HiA Lancaster has eroded significantly over the following four years.  He stills shows a strong arm and quick feet, but has filled out rather softly which has cut into his range and pushed him to second base, third base, and left field.  The bat may wind up playing at second if he is able to generate better contact in the majors, which could make him viable as an offensive minded 2B.  Third base is trending more toward power these days, but he could potentially be a fit there.  In the outfield, it is difficult seeing the bat come along as well as that.

Jhondaniel Medina?  He is a nineteen year old pitcher who throws a high 80s fastball, a slider that breaks hard (with some command issues), and a poor change up.  The fastball-slider plays well enough for rookie ball and should work in A ball.  However, even at this level he shows a strong platoon split with lefties hitting him quite well.  As a right handed pitcher, this profile is not incredibly special.  However, it is a roughly interesting arm for the purposes of accumulating arm depth and it allows Pittsburgh to clean a space on the 40 man roster.

What does it all mean?
The Orioles find themselves with a player who used to be an interesting prospect and has failed multiple times at the major league level, but gives them more options for filling second base.  The Pirates get more flexibility in their 40 man roster by dealing a guy two other teams had given up on in the past two seasons along with acquiring an slightly interesting, but certainly not unique, arm.

2012 Orioles Retrospective: Chris Tillman

When the Orioles acquired Chris Tillman from the Mariners in the Erik Bedard trade, he was considered a top prospect. Mid 90s fastball, big curve, good numbers in the minors at a young age. Tillman continued that minor league success for the O's, before getting called up to the big club in 2009. Since then, it had been a series of disappointments surrounding occasional flashes of upside - largely due to a fastball that declined from 92 mph to 90 mph to 89 mph last year, and didn't have the movement or command to compensate.

This season, Chris Tillman seemed like a different guy. In Triple-A, he posted numbers we hadn't seen since 2009; striking out better than a batter an inning while keeping the walks and home runs down (3 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9). When he was brought up to the Majors in July, he showed us why - his first start, he averaged 95 mph with the fastball, while pitching 8.1 innings against the Mariners and striking out 7 (he gave up 2 runs, both unearned). Hope had been rekindled.

Tillman ended up pitching 86 innings for Baltimore, and though he never again touched those Seattle highs, he was effective enough to keep rotation spot while things were constantly in flux for the O's. His 6.9 K/9 was only about average, but it was a career high. And he managed it while walking only 2.5 batters per nine.

Beyond throwing harder again - his fastball averaged a touch over 92 mph - Tillman also showed a more distinct repertoire, with the cutter figuring more prominently and the slider being its own offering. Here are the whiff rates on his pitches:

	Fastball	Curve	Change	Cutter	Slider
2009	10%	26%	32%	-	-
2010	12%	17%	26%	-	-
2011	10%	18%	19%	24%	21%
2012	14%	27%	28%	14%	25%

The fastball was a bit better, but the curve and change regained their prior success.

Tillman once again had a reverse platoon split in 2012; 3.67 xFIP versus lefties, and 5.39 xFIP versus righties. You can see that the improved whiff rates on his off-speed pitches from this, as lefties missed his change-up 31% of the time they swung at it and the curve 33% of the time. That's more like what happened in 2009, then in the previous two years when he could crack 20% against lefties with either pitch, though in 2011 the slider and cutter picked up some of that slack.

For his career, Tillman has actually handles lefties a fair bit better than righties, striking out almost 2 more batters per nine against them (6.9 K/9 vs. 5.2 K/9). Part of that is the change-up, which he used to throw mostly and now throws almost exclusively to left-handed batters, and which is maybe his best pitch - it not only gets swings and misses, but also some groundballs now (it had a 51% groundball rate in 2012). Right-handed batters were much more likely to see the slider and cutter this year, and as those are Tillman's newer (and, likely, worse) pitches, it's not so surprising that he'd be somewhat less effective with them.

That's actually not a terrible sign for his future, I think. If opposing teams don't pick up on this (or if the disparity goes away, as is possible considering we're talking about less than 150 IP against either side), then Tillman might once again get to face more lefties than righties (60% of the batters he faced in 2012 were left-handed; up from 58% in 2011 and 50% in 2010). And further development of the cutter or slider could help him decrease the split - a 3.67 xFIP against lefties is pretty darn good from a right-handed pitcher. Plus, he's (still) only 24 years old.

Going back to the fastball velocity - though it did take a distinct tumble after his 2012 debut, it still averaged 92 mph (and was more like 91-92 late in the year). That isn't as exciting as seeing him touch 98, but can be perfectly serviceable in a Major League rotation when combined with decent control and some quality off-speed pitches (especially if he can hold mid 90s in the tank for when he needs it). 

There are certainly some less positive signs; Tillman's 2.93 ERA is largely an illusion created by his .221 BABIP. He is a flyball pitcher and does induce more than his share of pop-ups, so a better than average BABIP isn't unexpected, but certainly nothing near that low. On the flip side to that, as an extreme flyball pitcher (and his 2012 groundball rate was a career low 35%) who doesn't suppress home runs like some of the more successful pitchers of that type have, Tillman can be susceptible to the longball - as his 1.3 HR.9 allowed can attest. Also, despite dropping his walk rate to 2.5 BB/9, he didn't really avoid three-ball counts or get ahead of batter much more than he had previously (a little bit, but not as much as one would think given that his previous career walk rate had been 4 BB/9). So some of the old flaws are still around, at least in part.

Overall, Tillman's 4.34 xFIP is probably more indicative of how well he pitched than his ERA (and his FIP of 4.24 leans much more towards the former). That xFIP is more or less in line with what the Orioles got from their starters overall in 2012, and ranked Tillman behind Hammel and Arrieta, and tied with Chen, but in front of Miguel Gonzalez, Brian Matusz, and various guys I wouldn't expect to starting games for the team in 2013. That probably leaves Tillman with a rotation spot heading into next season, but one that he'll need to maintain or improve upon his 2012 season to hold on to. And for the first time in a while, I have at least some confidence that that's possible.

Trade Target: Giancarlo Stanton

After the fire sale in Miami there was outrage around the league. From the fans who had to endure starting over AGAIN. From GMs who thought, if they were going to dump salaries why didn't I get a phone call? From MLB who didn't like the message this sent to both players and fans. It also caused some issues with the players that were left behind. Giancarlo Stanton expressed his displeasure on twitter, and who can blame him? He went from a team a few pieces away from being a legit threat in the NL East, to a cellar dwelling team full of prospects and a couple guys just waiting for their turn to pack and head to the airport.

The problems with this situation abound. Not only did he just turn 23 this month and not eligible for arbitration until 2014, but he is a superstar in the making and the team can argue that they want to build around him and not deal him anywhere. Pretty much every team in baseball has called to see what they could offer in order to land Stanton, and rightly so, in 373 games, he already has 93 HR, a .350 OBP, an all-star bid and has gotten votes for MVP in his last two seasons. That means that MIA can ask for the moon, and more than one team will start building a really tall ladder.

In the Orioles case, there is pretty much no way a trade for Stanton goes down that doesn't include Dylan Bundy. Since there is no high salary to lend negative value for Stanton you are looking at trading a guy with a ML track record, that has excelled at that level and has less than 2 years of service time. That is going to cost a small fortune. MIA will be looking for a package of young, controllable talent and the Orioles are near the driver's seat in that they have the top SP prospect in all of baseball. From this point it comes down to Stanton is proven in the ML and Bundy is still a prospect who may never pan out at the ML level, so many people would make any deal of that sort without blinking. A package featuring Bundy, Schoop and Delmonico may get the Marlins attention, but it may also strip the team of the very little bit of prospects that they have. They may be able to build a package without giving up Bundy that features Manny Machado going home to MIA, but that would also strip the team almost bare. Gausman isn't eligible to be traded until this summer, unless it is as a PTBNL, and after the names I've already mentioned you aren't talking very highly regarded prospects around baseball.

While Stanton is exactly the kind of bat the middle of this lineup desperately needs, the question would need to be made, do you play him in LF which is fairly spacious in Camden Yards? Do you move him to 1B and hope that he can play the position well enough? Do you move Markakis to LF and play Stanton in RF? All of these scenarios are trivial to the issue of what needs to be given up in order to get him on the team. Do you trade away a prospect that hasn't proven anything in the major leagues? Even if that prospect could be on the level of Strasburg, Kershaw or Verlander? It's not an easy decision, but then again there aren't many players in MLB that this conversation would even happen for, Stanton just happens to be on that short list. I'm sure people will say even if Bundy does achieve his potential, that's a max of about 35 games per year, where Stanton could contribute to 162. You could also say that Bundy would have a lot more control over what happens in the games he does play in. It's a debate that happens over and over in baseball circles, one that I'm not sure there is a clear answer for.

A Short Run Down of Danny Valencia

A year and a week ago, Dan Duquette made his first acquisition by signing a once promising third baseman by the name of Matt Antonelli.  That move did not provide any value to the Major League squad and may have hurt it due to him taking up a 40 man roster spot.  That said, the likelihood of a 40th man to provide much value is pretty slim.  Anyway, Antonelli was released after a few months in the organization and was picked up by the New York Yankees where he was injured.  He currently is a free agent and is looking for another opportunity with a ball club.

Today, Dan Duquette made another acquisition of a once (somewhat less) promising third baseman by the name of Danny Valencia.  Valencia was a fringe prospect coming out of college and required three solid seasons at the plate before he was given much consideration as a top talent.  Issues with breaking balls, defense, and his demeanor began to fade away as his bat began to play in AA and AAA.  However, he still cannot touch a breaking ball from a right hander, the defense is merely below average, and his behavior on the field seemed to tone down a bit. 

In 2010, the Twins were underwhelmed with Brendan Harris and Matt Tolbert at the hot corner, so they gave Valencia a trial at third even though he had been unimpressive in AAA (292/347/373).  Once in the majors, he broke out with a slash line of 311/351/448 (1.9 rWAR, 2.6 fWAR).  There was some concern attached to his .345 BABIP because he needs a high successful contact rate to make up for a below average walk rate.  In 2011, he provided a decent amount of evidence that he is not a full time player with a slash of 246/294/383 (-0.6 rWAR, 0.4 fWAR) during 154 starts.

Then came 2012:

		PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
AAA	vL	90	.329	.378	.537	127
AAA	vR	239	.233	.272	.348	86
MLB	vL	45	.214	.200	.333	73
MLB	vR	96	.185	.208	.283	67

His season was split between AAA and MLB as well as between the Minnesota and Boston organizations.  He struggled against both left handed and right handed major leaguers to go aong with substandard defense.  That combination is a difficult one to stomach, so he spent most of his season in the minors where he showed some aptitude against left handers.

As it stands, it is difficult to say that Valencia will contribute positively to the Orioles in 2013.  He provides a weak glove and a bat that at best provides plus value against left handed pitchers (~30% of plate appearances).  Best case scenario?  He provides the same value as Jonny Gomes for 4.5MM less.

2013 Minor League Free Agents: Second Base

Second base is not a position of strength for the Orioles.  Their current options are last year's Rule 5 pick Ryan Flaherty, waiver wire pickup Alexi Casilla, elder Brian Roberts, and the green Jonathan Schoop.  The position does not have many great options on the free agent market with players like Marco Scutaro and Kelly Johnson headlining the 2013 class.  Although the team may choose to let the four in house options fight it out in Spring Training, it may be useful to have another option in Norfolk.

Before this past season, Ryan Adams manned 2B in Norfolk offering a potential offensive minded middle infielder.  Adams though will be sitting for the first 50 games due to a drug related suspension and word is that Adams' election for MiL free agency will mean that he is no longer going to be part of the Oriole organization.  There are some other options out there.

Adrian Cardenas, 26yo
Chicago Cubs

		PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
Iowa	AAA	282	.300	.381	.461	109
Chicago	MLB	67	.183	.269	.283	52

Cardenas used to be a top notch prospect, making two top one hundred listings as well as six organizational listing.  Cardenas began his professional career as a shortstop.  When his range decreased, the hope was that he could be an offensive minded second baseman.  Having little touch for second base, he has been mainly shifted to the outfield.  Without a remarkable bat, he likely is now more limited as a utility infielder.

Yangervis Solarte, 26yo
Texas Rangers

		PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
Round Rock	AAA	568	.290	.342	.407	97

Minor league free agent second basemen are a pretty thin lot as evidenced by having to select a rather run of the mill option here.  Solarte joined the Rangers last season, but had spent his career before then in the Twins system.  He manages to put the ball in play with average power and walks for a second baseman.  He could fill in if need as a 2B, 3B,or LF, but not much else.  The Orioles do not have much at 2B in Norfolk until Schoop pushes his way up or if Flaherty is demoted.  There may be some opportunity to see if Solarte has anything to work on.

Brad Emaus, 27yo
New York Mets 

		PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
Buffalo	AAA	232	.212	.297	.315	85

Emaus has performed well in the minors, but has drawn many questions about how well his skill-heavy-talent-light would play at the Major League level.  He originally was in the Blue Jays system, left unprotected in Rule 5/selected by Mets/returned, traded to Rockies, traded to Red Sox, released by Red Sox, and then signed by Mets.  In 2012, his time in the Mets minor league system was a disaster.  Before last season though, Emaus was noted for his understanding of the strike zone. Including that season, his AAA career split is 276/365/458.  That might interest Dan Duquette.

Buck Showalter's Closers

With last season's success by Jim Johnson, and the offseason debate that has taken off about whether to trade him with his value at it's peak or not, I thought it would be a good time to look at Buck's history with closers to see if he has a style or preference with them.

Year		Team	Age	Closer	SV	Age	Closer	SV			SV
1992		New York Yankees	35	Farr	30
1993		New York Yankees	36	Farr	25	24	Wickman	4
1994		New York Yankees	36	Howe	15	25	Wickman	6			6
1995		New York Yankees	28	Wetteland	31	37	Howe	2
1998		Arizona Diamondbacks	31	Gregg Olson	30	25	F. Rodriguez	5
1999		Arizona Diamondbacks	32	Gregg Olson	14	25	Matt Mantei	22
2000		Arizona Diamondbacks	26	Matt Mantei	17	21	B. Kim	14			5
2003		Texas Rangers	29	Urbina	26	28	F.Cordero	15
2004		Texas Rangers	29	Cordero	49
2005		Texas Rangers	30	Cordero	37
2006		Texas Rangers	34	Otsuka	32	31	Cordero	6
2010		Baltimore Orioles	29	Simon	17	35	Koji	13
2011		Baltimore Orioles	33	Gregg	22	28	Johnson	9
2012		Baltimore Orioles	29	Johnson	51	27	Strop	3

In 1992, Buck inherited Farr as his closer, he was already established and had a few great seasons closing for KC and NYY. Farr continued in his role until suffering elbow discomfort at the end of 1993 and going on the DL, where he was replaced by acquisition Lee Smith down the final stretch. Buck then went with veteran Steve Howe as his closer, with youngster Bob Wickman picking up a few saves out of the set up role that he thrived in the previous season. Going into 1995, NYY picked up star closer John Wetteland to supplant Howe in that role. In this stretch, Buck never replaced a closer that wasn't injured.

With Arizona, building the team from scratch, Buck had input into what players to add and acquire, and curiously enough his bullpen consisted of 3 career saves outside of one player, former Orioles closer, Gregg Olson, who had little to no success since leaving Baltimore in 1994. Olson was the oldest pitcher on the staff, and thrown back into the role that Showalter saw him thrive against him first hand as coach of the Yankees, Olson responded with 30 saves his first year as closer. Olson started out pretty rough through the season in 1999 and by mid-May was replaced as closer by new acquisition Matt Mantei who had shown promise closing for the Marlins before Arizona. Mantei started the season in 2000 on the DL with Kim stepping in exceptionally in the early part of the season before Mantei took his job back when he got healthy.

In Texas, they had signed U. Urbina coming off an all-star season in 2002 to a one-year deal, he started out great again in Buck's first season as manager, before they traded him in June to the Marlins for Adrian Gonzalez. Buck then turned to 28 year old RP Fransisco Cordero who had a great season the year before to take over the role, he responded by holding the job for the next 3 years and amassing 107 saves for Showalter before being traded to MIL in 2006 at the trading deadline. Otsuka was amazing as a set up man for SD before going to TEX, and Buck went to him with the closers job about a month into the 2006 season.

Coming to BAL, Buck came into a situation where Alfredo Simon was the closer, before he had the job, 3 weeks he made the move to 35 year old Koji Uehara for the remainder of the season. For the 2011 season the Orioles spent big on free agent Kevin Gregg who had a consistent few years as closer for multiple teams, not spectacular but consistent. As the season wore on and Gregg continued his ups and downs, Showalter turned to exceptional set up man Jim Johnson at the end of the season to close and carried into 2012 where he had an amazing season at the back end of a top bullpen.

In the end, you can see that he's got a preference for veteran guys in the closing role, and he is pretty loyal to the guy he goes with, he will give them chances to redeem themselves before being forced to make a move. In an injury situation the guy will get his job back, and he likes to use the set up role as kind of an apprenticeship for the closing role with younger guys training for the future. As one of the best bullpen handling coaches in MLB, you can see that in his history. With all of this being said, if the Orioles were to trade Johnson this offseason, likely candidates to get a shot at closing would be:

Strop: Showalter seemed to lose confidence in him down the stretch though.
Hunter: Showed an uptick in velocity in the pen, and has some history with Buck.
Arrieta: Has power stuff, and an arsenal for the back end, may get a chance to audition if he doesn't make the rotation, probably would have to intern as set up man first.
Matusz: More of a reach, as he is expected to move back to the rotation, but Buck showed a lot of confidence in him while Strop was struggling, and the splits are always a question there. 
Outside acquisition: O's have been linked to Japanese closer Fujikawa, and could always bring someone back in a trade.

Seeking Value in the Rule 5 Draft (2012)

The 2011 Rule 5 draft was arguably a success as the Orioles carried utility man Ryan Flaherty the entire season after selecting him from the Chicago Cubs organization.  Before the season, Baseball America placed him as the 7th best prospect in the Orioles' system with his entire worth placed on his bat playing in the infield with hopes that his defense would become adequate.  Neither proved incredibly useful to the Orioles.  His final line over 167 plate appearances was 216/258/359, a .270 wOBA, and -0.7 UZR (with negative value coming from third and corner outfield positions).  Perhaps what most fans will remember though was his home run against the Yankees in the American League Division Series.

Flaherty will enter into his second Spring Training with the Orioles.  He no longer will be competing with Robert Andino for second base after the Andino-Robinson deal went down.  However, he will be competing with Luis Alexi Casilla, a little-bit-too-green Jonathan Schoop, an on-the bubble Omar Quintanilla, an unlikely Brian Roberts, and whoever is picked up (spring invite, free agent, or trade).  Dan Duquette has mentioned in a number of articles after the Casilla wire pickup that he was prepared to go into Spring Training with the second base position as is.  That does not mean he will rest on his laurels though.  Second base is still quite a position of need in addition to left field and everyone could use another pitcher.

Skimming through the Rule 5 eligible list, I found five players of interest:


Ryan Buchter, LHP
26 years old
Atlanta Braves

		IP	K/9	B/9	GB%	SIERA
Mississippi	AA	41.1	10.9	4.1	36	3.00
Gwinnett	AAA	8	5.6	19.1	42	7.90

The Braves are Buchter's third organization.  He was originally drafted by the Nationals, but was dealt to the Cubs for Matt Avery who has not been in professional ball after the 2009 season.  In 2011, he was on the move again when the Braves traded for his services in exchange for Rodrigo Lopez.  It is obviously by his travels that he has attributes that are valued, but he has never appeared on any major publications top prospect rankings for any organization he has been a part of.  So what can do he so well?  He strikes batters out.  What does he not do well?  He walks everyone.  He does this with a low to mid 90s four seamer that he mixes with a good cutter (the supposed anathema in the current Orioles regime).  Being a lefty with a decent strikeout rate, he likely is worth a flyer for someone in Spring Training.  The Os are in need, or want, for a lefty in the pen, so he might be an option.


Braulio Lara, LHP
24 years old
Tampa Rays

		IP	K/9	B/9	GB%	SIERA
Charlotte	A+	112	6.59	4.66	42	4.67

As mentioned by Baseball America, Lara is a player organizations can dream on, but who likely provides very little value in the near term.  The hope is that his low to mid 90s fastball and simply focusing on his inconsistent curveball as a reliever could bring out near term value.  The Rays have been keeping him as a starting pitcher, but his struggles may have reached the point where from this point forward they see what he can do as a reliever.  Lara might have the best chance for sticking with an organization that does not have playoff hopes.  The Orioles may view their roster spots as too precious to hold onto a not-ready-for-prime-time arm.


Jonathan Galvez, 2B/LF
22 years old
San Diego Padres

		PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
San Antonio	AA	345	.295	.366	.432	111

This is Galvez' second year exposed to the Rule 5 draft.  He profiles as a bat first second baseman.  He has modest power for a second baseman and had a AA league average walk rate.  It is hard to see how Galvez is a better player right now than Ryan Flaherty, but maybe the Orioles' or some other's team scouts see something they like.  The Orioles could take a flyer and check him out for the entirety of Spring Training before having to send him back if he proves to be unworthy of an active roster slot.

Jeremy Hazelbaker, LF/CF
25 years old
Boston Red Sox

		PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
Portland	AA	484	0.273	0.338	0.476	113

Hazelbaker has a lot of athleticism and shows plus-plus speed with a good head for the basepaths.  He has the tools to be an excellent fielder, but he has issues with proper route running and a slow first step.  He showed above average power last season in AA with average on base performance.  I'd rate him as a less impressive commodity than Trayvon Robinson, but, again, he may well be worth a flyer.  Hazelbaker has good enough defense, raw power, and uses his speed more effectively.  If he can provide similar defensive value as Robinson, his ceiling may be a bit higher as he could have a bat capable for left field.  He should be able to find someone willing to see whether they can fit him on their team.


Marc Krauss, LF
25 years old
Houston Astros

		PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
Mobile	AA	429	0.281	0.415	0.5	129
Corpus Christi	AA	35	0.414	0.514	1	211
OKC	AAA	66	0.123	0.203	0.123	42

In 2009, Nick Faleris and I were discussing our plans for the shadow draft we were running in concert with the Orioles' draft.  I was a strong proponent of Marc Krauss while Nick was pushing for Todd Glaesmann (who was my target for the third round).  In the end, we chose Glaesmann over Krauss.  Krauss, with his poor body type and questionable bat speed, has found success and shown power at each step up the ladder.  It appears though after coming over in the Chris Johnson trade that the talent starved Astros do not see a need to put Krauss on the 40 man roster.  Krauss' poor defense and bad arm limit him to left field with his ceiling being somewhat like Luke Scott, but with a batting profile that is someone who should be limited against Major League right handed pitchers at this point in his career.  The Diamondbacks did try him out over 30 games at first base, but if the Orioles have one thing in abundance it is a number of guys who can play first base and left field.

Sunday Comics: Happy Thanksgiving!

I don't think this needs any explanation. I hope you had a wonderful holiday filled with friends, family and food!

Zach Petersime – He Got His Chance and Took It

by Joe Reisel

The Norfolk Tides used an International League-record 75 players in 2012. One reason they used so many players was that the parent Orioles would either suddenly promote a pitcher or tell the Tides not to use a pitcher to keep him ready for a sudden promotion. If the Tides didn’t have usable pitchers to get through a game safely, the Orioles would promote a pitcher who could quickly get to wherever the Tides were playing and who was able to pitch. These emergency pitchers might be recalled from Advanced Class A Frederick or Class A Delmarva. And, as you might expect, most of those pitchers promoted from the lower levels were overmatched by AAA hitters.

However, one of those emergency pitchers not only outperformed expectations, he managed to stay with the team for the entire last month of the season. Righthander Zach Petersime was promoted from Delmarva in August.  He was the Orioles’ 45th round draft choice in 2009.  He signed and was assigned to the Gulf Coast League Orioles, where he pitched fairly well as a starter. He started 2010 in extended spring training; joined Bluefield in the Appalachian League in June, and didn’t pitch well as a swingman (seven starts, nine relief appearances.)  He started 2011 in extended spring training; joined Aberdeen in the NY-Penn League in June, and pitched poorly as a relief pitcher.

It would have been expected that had would be released during spring training 2012. But he survived and again started 2012 in extended spring training.  In June, he was assigned to Aberdeen; after one game, he was promoted to Delmarva. He pitched fairly well as a part-time closer when he got summoned to Norfolk as an emergency pitching replacement. There is a story, probably not true, that he got the promotion because Delmarva’s return trip from a road trip took them past Harbor Park; the bus detoured to the parking lot and dropped the most-rested pitcher off.

With the Tides, Petersime pitched well in two long relief appearances. On August 18 I saw him start a “bullpen game”, one in which the scheduled starting pitcher became unavailable and several relief pitchers go as long as they can. Petersime, who hadn’t started a game in two seasons, pitched three scoreless innings. In the fourth inning, L.J. Hoes misplayed a fly ball into a triple; Petersime retired the next batter but after allowing two more hits was relieved after allowing two more hits. Pedro Viola allowed those two inherited runners to score; making Petersime’s line (3 runs in 3 1/3 innings) look worse than he really pitched. He made another emergency start five days later. That game was on the road so I didn’t see him. He gave up three runs in 3 1/3 innings, which was good enough for an emergency starter. The Tides were impressed enough to give him a third start even though there was a starting pitcher on rotation. I saw that game, in which he allowed two runs in five innings. For a pitcher skipping two levels and being pressed into an unfamiliar role, he was outstanding.

Under normal circumstances, in 2013 Petersime would probably be assigned to Delmarva as a relief pitcher. But based on his success in Norfolk, I think he has earned an assignment to Frederick. And based on how well he pitched in emergencies, I think he should be tried again as a starting pitcher. Zach Petersime may not be a real prospect, and the chances are slim that he’ll even ever see AAA baseball again. But he’s earned the chance to try the next level.

The Camden Highball (Episode 5): Men who Stare at Men with Gloves

Oh, it is a Thanksgiving miracle!  The long awaited to be edited fifth episode of the Camden Highball is ready for public consumption.  Joining me on the show is Andrew Gibson of Baseball Info Solutions and Camden Chat fame.  We are discussing quite a bit about defensive metrics: what they mean and how they are calculated (in a very general idea-based way).  This means that we discussed the Orioles outfield and the worthiness of their gold gloves as well as one of our favorite subjects here at the Depot, Mark Reynolds.  Kevin sent me an email for me to comment on the Trayvon Robinson and Robert Andino deal that we wrote about earlier.  Let's get started...

Episode 5 of the Camden Highball

00:00:00 Music - Baltimore is the New Brooklyn by J.C. Brooks and the Uptown Sound (in full at end of podcast)
00:00:25 Greetings from Jon
00:02:00 Mailbag from Kevin in Newport News, VA.  Should we be excited about Trayvon Robinson?  What this means for Xavier Avery?
00:09:32 Interview with Andrew Gibson
00:10:25 What are DRS and UZR?
00:12:37 Balls hitting the outfield fence in DRS
00:15:08 Differences between home/road splits for Camden Yards
00:21:10 Good fielding plays explained using Mark Reynolds
00:25:49 Breaking down the arm component using Davis, Jones, and Markakis
00:40:12 Off season perspective on first base, More Mark Reynolds and others
00:45:55 Andrew likes Youk
00:48:04 Jon wonders about Travis Ishikawa and first base defense
00:52:02 Orioles needing to keep window open without selling off future
01:00:39 Baltimore is the New Brooklyn (in full)

We are available on iTunes (though we still seem to have some problems with updating there).  If you have any question you would like to pose to us, feel free to mail them via CamdenDepot@gmail.com or via the Camden Depot Facebook page.

Articles of note mentioned:
Depot's Home/Road UZR Split Post (it was nice to see this article had legs)
Dewan's indirect response on Jones and Markakis
Depot's pilot study on how arm components of defensive metrics change for elite arms

2013 Minor League Free Agents: First Base

Previously, we discussed Minor League free agent catchers.  Today, we move on to first basemen.  The point of this article is not to suggest that the Orioles need to deepen their talent pool at Norfolk with journeyman first baseman, but to show that their may well be some talent at the fringe corners of the market.

First Base

The Orioles lost two Minor League free agent first basemen.  Rhyne Hughes had been in the organization since 2009.  He was acquired in a deal for Gregg Zaun, who no longer wished to provide counsel for the emergence of Matt Wieters.  The power Hughes' showed in the Rays' system never really materialized for the Orioles until he was forced to serve a suspension for PEDs and played out last year in AA.  The other free agent is Billy Rowell.  Often acclaimed as the man who caused Mike Trout to fall to the 24th selection due to the New Jersey fear (the fear that ball players from the Northeast can sometimes look like monsters merely due to playing vastly inferior competition).  Rowell had difficulty translating his batting practice light tower power into game power as he had issues figuring out off speed pitches.  He did not really take to the idea of being converted to a pitcher in spring training and then would up with a substance abuse violation.  He finished the year out at home as the Orioles decided to simply cut ties with their former number 1 pick.

On to potential pickups:

Christian Marrero, 27yo
Pirates

Marrero has never been considered a top prospect.  He has been someone whose athleticism is not exceptional, but he has performed well enough at each step along the way.  His power is fringy for a first baseman or left fielder.  He is not particularly gifted with range, but he does have a strong arm that is useful in left.  The hope for him is that he improves his skills and can be used as a fourth outfielder or backup first baseman.  It will be a difficult road for him.

Reynaldo Rodriguez, 27yo
Red Sox

Rodriguez is a player who attracts my interest.  After floundering in the Yankees system, he was dismissed after he was injured and lost a season.  He kept at it and worked his way back to be signed by the Red Sox.  As one of the more older players in the leagues he was playing in, he managed to move his way through the system a step each year.  Last year saw hm with 49 plate appearances in AAA where he looked overmatched.  With reports of solid defense and good plate coverage.  A lean body with not much frame to add weight, his power will be at best average or, more likely, below average.  I'd like to see what he could do in Norfolk where his line drive swing might play well.  If he can pick up some time in the outfield, it might make him an easier player to carry at the MLB level on the bench.

Travis Ishikawa, 30yo
Brewers

Ishikawa has always been a player that has interested me because he is someone who does something very well at a position where that particular skill is held with much value: defense.  I have not seen him enough, but you could make the argument that he is the best defensive first baseman in baseball.  His downfall is that he is an awfully poor hitting first baseman.  He would fall in as the 25th or so worst hitting player at that position.  However, that glove is worth about 1.5 wins over the course of a full season.  In total, that would bring him in the neighborhood of 1.5 to 2 WAR, which is passable (not preferable) at first.  Ishikawa would be someone I would be interested in sitting at Norfolk and bringing up in case of an injury at first.  It is a bit difficult to argument for a defensive backup at first base who is not going to be of much help in pinch hitting situations.

2013 Minor League Free Agents: Catcher

One thing the Depot enjoys doing is looking at the edge of the playing field and finding potential plus value for next to nothing.  One area to look at as the season ends is the minor league free agent population.  In a series of posts, we will choose three or so players who appear interesting to us and give some background on them.

Catchers

The Orioles lost Ronny Paulino to minor league free agency this year.  Paulino shows some interesting power and streaks of high contact.  He was picked up in response to Taylor Teagarden's injuries.  Optimistically, he even saw some time as the Orioles' designated hitter.  Over his career he has shown a strong platoon split with a +213 OPS in favor of hitting lefties.  Last year though, in limited time, he struggled against everyone.  If I was in another organization, I would be willing to give the 32 year old some playing time in AAA as the organization's third catcher, but lets look at some other options for the Orioles.

James Skelton, 28yo
Nationals

Skelton does one thing pretty well...he walks.  The Tigers, the Diamondbacks, the Pirates, and the Nationals all tried to find ways to take advantage of that ability.  He began as a catcher and still catches, but his difficulties catching has led teams to trying to play him at second base and left field.  The bat will not work in left and the glove appears inadequate at second and behind the plate.  Still relatively young, I would be open to trying to give him more instruction behind the plate with the backup option letting him be a utility player.

Nevin Ashley

Nevin Ashley, 29 yo
Rays

Ashley shows more promise to me than Skelton.  Not that either has a lot of promise, but Ashley was able to flash long unseen power last year and a decent eye at the plate.  It was the first time since rookie ball that he showed any reasonable ability to hit a ball.  Based on his caught stealing numbers, he seems to have a good arm and earlier in his career he was awarded as the Rays best defensive minor leaguer and was often exposed to MLB squad pitchers in Spring Training.  It seems like a lot of the elements are in place for a pretty solid back up catcher.  It may well be he is a late bloomer or simply an older minor leaguer who had a good stretch.  As a Durham Bull, the Orioles certainly saw him play this year and likely have an established opinion on his capabilities.

Landon Powell, 31 yo
Rockies

Powell, at one point, appeared to be a decent solution behind the plate for the Athletics.  He showed good power for a catcher, an ability to walk, and an absolute gun behind the plate (consistently eliminating 50% of those who dared to run against him).  Powell is a big body catcher checking in at 6'3 and 265 lbs.  Weight has been an issue with evaluators and has been a struggle for him.  After blowing out his knee in 2009, the power went away and his ability to eliminate runners also decreased from the low 50s to the low 30s.  It may well be his knee just cannot take the grind anymore and it affects his bat and his glove.  I would still like to give him a shot.

Orioles Acquire Trayvon Robinson for Robert Andino

Given Robert Andino's down 2012, I suggested the Orioles might want to look elsewhere for a starting second baseman for 2013 if they wanted to be competitive again. When the O's picked up Alexi Casilla, the writing was kind of on the wall Andino wasn't going to be getting a starting job with the team next season. And now, as it turns it, he won't be getting any kind of job at all with the Birds, as he's been traded to the Seattle Mariners for outfielder Trayvon Robinson.

First a quick look at the Andino to Casilla swap:

Andino career: .235/.296/.323, 67 wRC+, average-ish UZR at 2B/3B/SS
Casilla career: .250/.305/.334, 74 wRC+, average-ish UZR at 2B, plus (in few innings) at SS

Both guys hit better in 2011 than 2012, with Casilla slightly better in both years. He's walked less than Andino in his career (7.7% to 6.9%), but also makes more contact and strikes out less often (12.8% to 20.4%). Power numbers are similar (.088 ISO to .084 ISO), though Andino does it slightly more with homers and a little less with doubles. Casilla's better on the basepaths, and is a switch-hitter with relatively small platoon splits (especially when regressed) which makes him a more attractive starter than the right-handed Andino. The hope is probably that Casilla - if he is the team's primary second baseman - can be as valuable as Andino was in 2011 (around average), with less "Andino in 2012" type down-side (below replacement level).

Now to the trade:

Trayvon Robinson is a 25 years old switch-hitting outfielder. In the last two years for Seattle he's accumulated 319 Major League plate appearance with a .217/.272/.330 batting line. He improved somewhat from 2011 to 2012, bumping his walk rate up from 5% to over 8% and dropping the K's from 39% (!) to 26%. Back in 2011 with the Dodgers organization, he hit .293/.375/.563 with 26 home runs in Triple-A, though that took place for Albuquerque. Robinson's generally not shown that type of power and the whiffs are clearly of some concern, but his patience at the plate looks like it's improved since the lower levels of the minors.

Robinson does bring some speed (169 steals at a 70% clip in the minors) and (supposedly) defense to the table, which at least makes him attractive as a fourth outfielder. And, though he's out of options like Robert Andino, he has more years of team control left and is going to be cheaper - Andino made $1.3 M in his first arbitration year in 2012, and would probably be closer to $2 M for 2013.

Quick scouting report from Jon: He is a four tool guy whose tools simply have not been able to play at the MLB level. Robinson adds to team speed, but his plus speed that is not quite effectively used on the basepaths. He's overly aggressive at the plate and can be fooled by offspeed offerings, and he is also kind of a platoon guy even though he's a switch hitter. If you want to force a comp, he's like Xavier Avery with a little more power. (Which all more or less lines up with the stats above)

The Orioles didn't give up much in Andino or probably get much in Robinson, but there's likely more upside with the latter. Can't complain too much about that kind of trade.

2012 Orioles Retrospective: Tommy Hunter

Quick; who was second on the Orioles in innings pitched this year (pretend you haven't seen the title)?

Right, Tommy Hunter with 133.2 IP. Sometimes you just need a guy to take the ball, I guess.

The O's picked Hunter up from the Rangers last season in the Koji Uehara trade, and moved him from the bullpen (where he spent all of 2011 for Texas) to the rotation. He began 2012 as the O's #2 starter, but that didn't go especially well.

It wasn't totally unexpected; Hunter maintained his excellent control (1.8 BB/9) but continued to not miss many bats (4.7 K/9). The biggest problem - by far - was that batters started to take Hunter deep left and right. Allowing 30 home runs in 20 games (2.3 HR/9) is not a recipe for success, and his ERA (5.71) and FIP (6.09) reflected that.

Of course some of that was poor fortune, as Hunter's 21.3% HR/FB rate was the highest in the Majors for starters with at least 100 IP. That's why his xFIP was a more reasonable 4.52, which still isn't good but is more in line with his career numbers as a back of the rotation starter.

Hunter was used in relief a couple times earlier in the season, but finally moved to the bullpen full-time in September. And that's where he may have finally found his role. Because Tommy Hunter the starter throws a 90-91 mph fastball, but Tommy Hunter the reliever throws a 95-96 mph fastball that he can actually blow by people. Here's the change in whiff rates against his pitches during the year:

	Fastball	Cutter	Curve	Slider	Change-up	Sinker
April-August	11%	10%	20%	13%	20%	10%
September	20%	15%	18%	29%	-	-

As a reliever, he simplified his repertoire and is much more content to let it rip with the heater. It's also possible that the slider compliments things better that way than the curve, but this is a relatively small number of pitches to look at.

In any case, it's working. Out of the bullpen, Hunter pitched to a 3.71 ERA, 3.45 FIP, and 3.39 xFIP. Only Troy Patton had a lower xFIP (and his was just 0.01 lower) of pitchers with more than Tommy's 17 innings out of the pen. Hunter struck out 16 batters in those 17 innings, while handing out just 3 unintentional walks. he also threw the fastest pitch of any Oriole this year, at 100.1 mph.

As nonplussed as I was about the excitement some had when the O's added Hunter to the team as a starter, I can definitely get on board with him as a power-reliever who can potentially throw multiple innings out of the pen (I think I'm more comfortable with him in the 7th or 8th than Pedro Strop, at the very least). This could be one of those not-often-seen situations where a guy is so much better in shorter outings that he's more* valuable despite a somewhat reduced workload.

* More likely he'd be about as valuable; perhaps 1+ win in 80 innings as a reliever versus 1+ win in 120 innings as a starter.