I'd personally prefer to start the same day as everyone else - tomorrow - but I guess Tuesday works too.
Fun fact: the day circled in green is my birthday.
31 March 2013
Sunday Comics: Almost There!
I'd personally prefer to start the same day as everyone else - tomorrow - but I guess Tuesday works too.
Fun fact: the day circled in green is my birthday.
30 March 2013
Norfolk Tides Preview -- Luis Exposito
The Orioles' opening day is just a couple of days away. By then, the Orioles will have determined who will be on their opening-day active roster. The full-season minor leagues begin play the following Thursday or Friday, and there will be a couple more days to set the minor-league team rosters. Although we don't know for certain who will be at Norfolk, we do know some of the assignments as players on the forty-man roster have already been given optional assignments for different teams.
You probably already know a lot about the best prospects, so there's not much point in writing more about them here. But there are others about whom not a lot has been written because they aren't considered prospects. For instance, Luis Exposito (who pronounces his first name LOO-is, not loo-EESE.) Exposito is on the Orioles' 40-man roster and was optioned to Norfolk. He's likely to be the starting catcher for the Norfolk Tides. Because he is, for now, on the Orioles' 40-man roster, he is a candidate to be promoted if the Orioles need a catcher. If Matt Wieters got hurt, and Exposito had to take his place, would he be at least a passable fill-in?
After Exposito joined the Orioles organization on waivers from the Red Sox, he was assigned to Norfolk and spent most of the season there. From the beginning, I was struck by one facet of Exposito's game -- he's slow, even for a catcher. Now, being slow isn't necessarily the kiss of death for a catcher. If a catcher has power or patience, he can still be a valuable offensive force even if he's slow.
Exposito doesn't draw walks. In his minor league career, he's drawn 162 walks in 2272 plate appearances, for a walk rate of 7.1%. His lifetime OBP is .324 and his career high is .339, so his offensive contribution won't be getting on base. Does he have enough power to be a viable major leaguer?
The evidence is confusing. Exposito did slug .420 in 2012, which doesn't look good until you remember that Norfolk is a bad place to hit. His career slugging percentage is .418, but that's spiked by an outlying 2008 season. So the summary statistical evidence is mixed; it looks like he was playing over his head in 2012 but was doing so in a tough park.
So we'll need to dig down a bit more. I reviewed my scoresheets of the 2012 games that I worked, and Exposito's balls in play breakdown is below:
The table shows how many fly balls, line drives, and ground balls Exposito hit and the fielder who fielded or significantly deflected it. In the games I saw, he hit nearly 50% more ground balls than fly balls and line drives combined. About 25% of his ground balls were base hits to the outfield. Based on what I saw, he wasn't able to take advantage of whatever power he may have. He appears to be a singles-hitting catcher.
I really don't have any strong impressions about his defense. Early in his career, he had the reputation for having a strong arm and acceptable defensive tools, but also for being unrefined. I'm always concerned that big, slow catchers will become too immobile to play even catcher, being unable to chase missed pitches or to field hits in front of the plate.
So, it looks as though Luis Exposito is your basic AAA catcher. It's too bad, in a way, that the Montreal Expos moved to Washington and became the Nationals. For if the Expos still existed, we could all root for Luis Exposito to join them. I don't think he has the skills to be anything more than an occasional backup in the major leagues. If that's true, I'll get plenty of chances to see him at Norfolk in 2013 -- unless the Orioles lose him on waivers if they try to remove him from the 40-man roster.
You probably already know a lot about the best prospects, so there's not much point in writing more about them here. But there are others about whom not a lot has been written because they aren't considered prospects. For instance, Luis Exposito (who pronounces his first name LOO-is, not loo-EESE.) Exposito is on the Orioles' 40-man roster and was optioned to Norfolk. He's likely to be the starting catcher for the Norfolk Tides. Because he is, for now, on the Orioles' 40-man roster, he is a candidate to be promoted if the Orioles need a catcher. If Matt Wieters got hurt, and Exposito had to take his place, would he be at least a passable fill-in?
After Exposito joined the Orioles organization on waivers from the Red Sox, he was assigned to Norfolk and spent most of the season there. From the beginning, I was struck by one facet of Exposito's game -- he's slow, even for a catcher. Now, being slow isn't necessarily the kiss of death for a catcher. If a catcher has power or patience, he can still be a valuable offensive force even if he's slow.
Exposito doesn't draw walks. In his minor league career, he's drawn 162 walks in 2272 plate appearances, for a walk rate of 7.1%. His lifetime OBP is .324 and his career high is .339, so his offensive contribution won't be getting on base. Does he have enough power to be a viable major leaguer?
The evidence is confusing. Exposito did slug .420 in 2012, which doesn't look good until you remember that Norfolk is a bad place to hit. His career slugging percentage is .418, but that's spiked by an outlying 2008 season. So the summary statistical evidence is mixed; it looks like he was playing over his head in 2012 but was doing so in a tough park.
So we'll need to dig down a bit more. I reviewed my scoresheets of the 2012 games that I worked, and Exposito's balls in play breakdown is below:
P
|
C
|
1B
|
2B
|
3B
|
SS
|
LF
|
CF
|
RF
|
|
Fly Ball
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
5
|
2
|
Line Drive
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
4
|
3
|
Ground Ball
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
5
|
7
|
11
|
1
|
6
|
2
|
The table shows how many fly balls, line drives, and ground balls Exposito hit and the fielder who fielded or significantly deflected it. In the games I saw, he hit nearly 50% more ground balls than fly balls and line drives combined. About 25% of his ground balls were base hits to the outfield. Based on what I saw, he wasn't able to take advantage of whatever power he may have. He appears to be a singles-hitting catcher.
I really don't have any strong impressions about his defense. Early in his career, he had the reputation for having a strong arm and acceptable defensive tools, but also for being unrefined. I'm always concerned that big, slow catchers will become too immobile to play even catcher, being unable to chase missed pitches or to field hits in front of the plate.
So, it looks as though Luis Exposito is your basic AAA catcher. It's too bad, in a way, that the Montreal Expos moved to Washington and became the Nationals. For if the Expos still existed, we could all root for Luis Exposito to join them. I don't think he has the skills to be anything more than an occasional backup in the major leagues. If that's true, I'll get plenty of chances to see him at Norfolk in 2013 -- unless the Orioles lose him on waivers if they try to remove him from the 40-man roster.
29 March 2013
Some Changes to Camden Depot
Almost two years ago as I watched Robin Hood: Men in Tights and Seal Team 6 was entering Pakistan (unbeknownst to me), I signed an agreement with ESPN for Camden Depot to be part of the Sweetspot Network. It has been a great experience and one I appreciate in continuing, but in a slightly different manner. So let's get down to the announcements.
1. I am stepping down as the day-to-day editor of Camden Depot. In my place, Matt Kremnitzer will be taking over those duties. I will remain as the silent editor, but my actions will be more in terms of vision.
2. My non-Orioles work will be posted here or on other sites like ESPN.
3. The Camden Depot twitter handle will remain to deliver general news about the site and tweets on Orioles coverage. I will be taking up @BSLJonShepherd. I hope you all follow me. The Camden Depot twitter handle will also continue to retweet articles written by past writers like Nick Faleris and mine.
4. As of April 1st, my writing focused on the Orioles will now be carried by Baltimore Sports and Life, which is going through an expansion phase.
I hope this has been clear. Feel free to ask any questions about the changes in the comment section.
1. I am stepping down as the day-to-day editor of Camden Depot. In my place, Matt Kremnitzer will be taking over those duties. I will remain as the silent editor, but my actions will be more in terms of vision.
2. My non-Orioles work will be posted here or on other sites like ESPN.
3. The Camden Depot twitter handle will remain to deliver general news about the site and tweets on Orioles coverage. I will be taking up @BSLJonShepherd. I hope you all follow me. The Camden Depot twitter handle will also continue to retweet articles written by past writers like Nick Faleris and mine.
4. As of April 1st, my writing focused on the Orioles will now be carried by Baltimore Sports and Life, which is going through an expansion phase.
I hope this has been clear. Feel free to ask any questions about the changes in the comment section.
26 March 2013
On Chris Tillman and Expectations
Unlike the mysterious Miguel Gonzalez, Chris Tillman has been in the Orioles' organization a lot longer than a year. He's been around since 2008 and will turn just 25 years old midway through April. But like Gonzalez, Tillman will be a part of the Orioles' five-man rotation to start the season (as long as he's healthy). Yet despite being around much longer, he has been unable to stick with the big league club for more than a few months at a time.
Tillman has yet to pitch in more than 86 innings in any of his four stints in the majors. From 2009 to 2011, he had an ERA of at least 5.40 while receiving about a dozen starts each season. He was slightly below average in 2009 and 2010, though he did turn things around somewhat in 2011. His 5.52 ERA in 62 innings made it difficult to tell, but Tillman struck out more batters than he had before, limited his walks at least from the previous season, and stopped giving up a ton of home runs. But he had an unlucky BABIP of .348 -- an almost .100 point increase from 2010 -- which, along with his improvements listed above, explains why his FIP (3.99) and xFIP (4.83) were the lowest of his career at that point.
Fueled by a disappointing final start in August 2011 and not being a September call-up, Tillman trained with Brady Anderson in the winter. In the spring of 2012, he spent the first portion of the season in Norfolk, but he also got to work with Rick Peterson, who was hired as the organization's director of pitching development last January. And, as you're likely aware, Peterson changed some things:
2009: 96.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 2.76 FIP, 9.22 K/9, 2.42 BB/9
2012: 89.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 9.27 K/9, 3.02 BB/9
They weren't quite as good, but they were still more than solid. But unlike in 2009, Tillman was ready when he was promoted this time. In his season debut on July 4 in Seattle, he pitched 8.1 innings of two-hit ball and only surrendered two unearned runs. In his next start, Tillman failed to make it out of the first inning, allowing seven runs (one earned) in a frustrating effort. But he bounced back, and he kept plugging along while making 15 starts and pitching 86 innings for a playoff-bound team. He finished with his best numbers to date: 2.93 ERA, 6.91 K/9, 2.51 BB/9. He was pretty fortunate on batted balls (.221 BABIP), which his 4.25 FIP and 4.34 xFIP reflect, but the strikeout and walk rates were the best of his career. Tillman's probably not a sub-3 ERA pitcher, but something around 4 or maybe a little above isn't unreasonable to expect.
It's also a strong sign that Tillman threw the ball the hardest since his rookie season. Here are Tillman's fastball velocities in each of his pro seasons, per Pitch F/X data:
2009: 92.0
2010: 90.2
2011: 89.3
2012: 92.2
It's probably not a coincidence that Tillman had a velocity increase after training hard in the offseason and getting tutelage from Peterson, but it's possible. Eighty-six innings is far from a large sample size. And just because Tillman was a pleasant surprise in 2012 doesn't mean he's guaranteed anything in 2013 if he reverts back to his 2009 or 2010 self. The Orioles will have several other starting pitchers waiting at Norfolk, chomping at the bit for a chance to prove themselves. He'll have to keep putting in the work, and he'll need to both stay healthy and pitch well in order to eventually surpass the 100-inning barrier. But it seems like Tillman knows that, especially if you believe Norfolk pitching coach Mike Griffin (per Brittany Ghiroli's link above): "If his fastball command at Norfolk wasn't as good as he wanted it, he was really upset. And then his side day was a major, major man on a mission."
That's the kind of effort it's going to take for Tillman to replicate his recent success. And while the Orioles do have some other options if he falters, they'd much rather have Tillman keep pitching like the guy most fans thought they acquired from the Mariners for Erik Bedard.
Tillman has yet to pitch in more than 86 innings in any of his four stints in the majors. From 2009 to 2011, he had an ERA of at least 5.40 while receiving about a dozen starts each season. He was slightly below average in 2009 and 2010, though he did turn things around somewhat in 2011. His 5.52 ERA in 62 innings made it difficult to tell, but Tillman struck out more batters than he had before, limited his walks at least from the previous season, and stopped giving up a ton of home runs. But he had an unlucky BABIP of .348 -- an almost .100 point increase from 2010 -- which, along with his improvements listed above, explains why his FIP (3.99) and xFIP (4.83) were the lowest of his career at that point.
Fueled by a disappointing final start in August 2011 and not being a September call-up, Tillman trained with Brady Anderson in the winter. In the spring of 2012, he spent the first portion of the season in Norfolk, but he also got to work with Rick Peterson, who was hired as the organization's director of pitching development last January. And, as you're likely aware, Peterson changed some things:
The Orioles put all their pitchers through biomechanical testing last spring, a product of new director of pitching development Rick Peterson, and Tillman's results coincided with what [pitching coach Rick] Adair originally wanted to do. And so the overhaul began with an emphasis on adding movement, with a stronger Tillman able to generate increased power, diligently working on drills when he opened the season with Norfolk, and ramping up efforts when Peterson made his rounds around Triple-A a few weeks later.Tillman, with a stronger frame and a tweaked pitching motion, put up his best numbers at Norfolk since 2009. Take a look:
2009: 96.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 2.76 FIP, 9.22 K/9, 2.42 BB/9
2012: 89.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 9.27 K/9, 3.02 BB/9
They weren't quite as good, but they were still more than solid. But unlike in 2009, Tillman was ready when he was promoted this time. In his season debut on July 4 in Seattle, he pitched 8.1 innings of two-hit ball and only surrendered two unearned runs. In his next start, Tillman failed to make it out of the first inning, allowing seven runs (one earned) in a frustrating effort. But he bounced back, and he kept plugging along while making 15 starts and pitching 86 innings for a playoff-bound team. He finished with his best numbers to date: 2.93 ERA, 6.91 K/9, 2.51 BB/9. He was pretty fortunate on batted balls (.221 BABIP), which his 4.25 FIP and 4.34 xFIP reflect, but the strikeout and walk rates were the best of his career. Tillman's probably not a sub-3 ERA pitcher, but something around 4 or maybe a little above isn't unreasonable to expect.
It's also a strong sign that Tillman threw the ball the hardest since his rookie season. Here are Tillman's fastball velocities in each of his pro seasons, per Pitch F/X data:
2009: 92.0
2010: 90.2
2011: 89.3
2012: 92.2
It's probably not a coincidence that Tillman had a velocity increase after training hard in the offseason and getting tutelage from Peterson, but it's possible. Eighty-six innings is far from a large sample size. And just because Tillman was a pleasant surprise in 2012 doesn't mean he's guaranteed anything in 2013 if he reverts back to his 2009 or 2010 self. The Orioles will have several other starting pitchers waiting at Norfolk, chomping at the bit for a chance to prove themselves. He'll have to keep putting in the work, and he'll need to both stay healthy and pitch well in order to eventually surpass the 100-inning barrier. But it seems like Tillman knows that, especially if you believe Norfolk pitching coach Mike Griffin (per Brittany Ghiroli's link above): "If his fastball command at Norfolk wasn't as good as he wanted it, he was really upset. And then his side day was a major, major man on a mission."
That's the kind of effort it's going to take for Tillman to replicate his recent success. And while the Orioles do have some other options if he falters, they'd much rather have Tillman keep pitching like the guy most fans thought they acquired from the Mariners for Erik Bedard.
24 March 2013
Sunday Comics: Karma
Sorry, Zach. Someday the minor league complex will have nice TVs, too. But it probably won't be when you're there.
Disclaimer: I'm sure they have newer TVs than this in the Orioles minor league complex. Rabbit ears are just fun to draw.
23 March 2013
Todd Redmond, from 220 Miles Away
Sometimes, the news moves faster than I can publish my thoughts. This article was far more interesting and relevant before Friday, when the Blue Jays claimed Todd Redmond on waivers. I had to decide whether to scrap the article and leave my slot vacant, edit it on the fly, or publish it as originally written in hopes that it might still be interesting.
As the end of spring training and Opening Day approach, all major-league teams are making roster moves to set their 25-man roster. After they’ve set their major-league roster, then they turn their attention to the minor-league rosters, but sometimes they option players to specific teams earlier rather than later. As of this writing, the Orioles have optioned seven players to AAA Norfolk – as opposed to sending them to minor-league camp – and it’s a fairly good bet that those five will be in Norfolk at the start of the 2013 season. We’ve discussed Xavier Avery and L.J. Hoes, two of the five, a lot already. Two other optionees are Danny Valencia, who will likely start the season as the Tides' third baseman and hoping either J.J. Hardy or Manny Machado wipes out; and Luis Exposito, a backup catcher candidate. The other three optioned to Norfolk are pitchers -- Zach Clark, a long-term Orioles organization player who had a surprisingly good 2012 season; Mike Belfiore, whom I haven’t seen at all; and Todd Redmond.
As the end of spring training and Opening Day approach, all major-league teams are making roster moves to set their 25-man roster. After they’ve set their major-league roster, then they turn their attention to the minor-league rosters, but sometimes they option players to specific teams earlier rather than later. As of this writing, the Orioles have optioned seven players to AAA Norfolk – as opposed to sending them to minor-league camp – and it’s a fairly good bet that those five will be in Norfolk at the start of the 2013 season. We’ve discussed Xavier Avery and L.J. Hoes, two of the five, a lot already. Two other optionees are Danny Valencia, who will likely start the season as the Tides' third baseman and hoping either J.J. Hardy or Manny Machado wipes out; and Luis Exposito, a backup catcher candidate. The other three optioned to Norfolk are pitchers -- Zach Clark, a long-term Orioles organization player who had a surprisingly good 2012 season; Mike Belfiore, whom I haven’t seen at all; and Todd Redmond.
In my Tides’ functions, I get to see both Norfolk players and players on the other thirteen International League teams. Todd Redmond was originally with the Pirates’ organization, but was traded to the Braves after reaching High-A. The Braves’ AAA affiliate, Gwinnett (County, Georgia) is in the International League, and Redmond spent 3 ½ seasons with Gwinnett before being traded to the Reds last July. As a result, I’ve seen Redmond make four starts over the years. What can Norfolk and Orioles fans expect from Todd Redmond?
Over the past four years, I’ve seen Todd Redmond make four starts for the Gwinnett Braves. He’s been the winning pitcher in all four starts, with a 2.05 ERA.
Date
|
IP
|
H
|
R
|
ER
|
BB
|
K
|
HR
|
GB
|
FB
|
4/9/2009
|
5
|
3
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
3
|
1
|
6
|
11
|
8/20/2009
|
6
|
4
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
4
|
13
|
9/22/2011
|
5
|
4
|
2
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
6
|
9
|
4/10/2012
|
6
|
4
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
7
|
0
|
3
|
11
|
He’s pitched well at Norfolk’s Harbor Park, and he’s been a fly-ball pitcher there. That’s good; Harbor Park is very large from power alley to power alley and is at sea level; fly balls don’t carry. He hasn’t pitched very deeply into games; two of his starts were early in the season when he might have been on a limited pitch count but the other two weren’t. In these four games, he didn’t start an inning without finishing it.
From my observation, Redmond has impressed me as a pitcher who gets batters out. He hasn’t been overpowering, nor has he impressed me with his overwhelming command. When I saw that Redmond was going to be the opposing pitcher, I knew I was going to see a competently-pitched game, one with a lot of contact but not much solid contact, and one in which the Tides were going to have trouble scoring runs.
Todd Redmond has never been and never will be an outstanding prospect. He doesn’t have outstanding stuff. He’s never going to be an ace starter or a closer. If he does get a chance in the major leagues, he’ll have to be effective from the very beginning; if he pitches poorly (as he did in a one-game start for the Reds in 2012) he won’t get a second chance. And he’ll likely be limited to fifth starter or middle-inning relief pitcher. I would guess he’s probably the number eleven or twelve candidate for a spot in the Orioles’ rotation. I would also guess that if the Orioles need a spot on the 40-man roster, he’s a good candidate for removal. (Looks I hit that one on the head.)
Despite that, Todd Redmond is a good candidate for success as a Norfolk Tide. He has pitched well at Harbor Park in the past and his stuff seems to be a good match for the park. Even if he doesn’t pitch for the Orioles, he’s likely to be useful by keeping Norfolk in most games so that the relief pitchers will pitch in meaningful situations. If Todd Redmond is the Tides’ starting pitcher, the chances are that the game will be worth attending.
22 March 2013
Camden Depot's Orioles top 10: 6 through 10
I mentioned in a previous post that the prospect evaluation here at the Depot has undergone some changes with Nick Faleris' departure to Baseball Prospectus. Briefly put, I am writing up each of these prospects, but the list was formed by averaging out the prospect lists of mine, Jeremy Strain, and Joe Reisel. Last time, we reviewed the top five and this time we go through numbers six through 10.
No. 6 - CIF Nicky Delmonico
Ht/Wt - 6'2", 196
B/T - L/R
Age at 6/13 - 20y 11m
Drafted 6:4 by Baltimore in 2011
Prospect Grade - C+ (44)
Last year, Delmonico rated as our sixth prospect, but was viewed slightly more positively than he was graded this year. What was good about 2012? As a 19 year old in full season A ball, Delmonico certainly held his own in the batter's box making up for poor contact with a strong walk rate and a very promising display of power. His .770 OPS was 12% greater than the league average when park factors are considered. The optimist would note that his poor June numbers (.688 OPS) coincided with a knee injury while his numbers in May and July were greater than .800. Regardless of your viewpoint on how to use those numbers, these numbers are excellent for a 19 year old in A ball.
My concern comes from two things: health and defense. A back injury was a major reason why Delmonico dropped from a high round draft pick to the sixth round. In his first professional season, he strained his knee. As a rule, back and knee injuries cause me a great deal of concern. This is particularly true for a player who is playing second base where they get torn up and blindsided while turning double plays. The good news for Delmonico is that he really cannot play second and will be shifted off to first, third, or maybe even the outfield. A catcher in high school, a second baseman in his first professional year, and now sitting on the hot corner. The uncertainty in his defensive home hopefully gets resolved giving him more time to concentrate on his bat, which in the end is what will carry him to the show. With that in mind, any struggle with the bat and he becomes minor league depth.
No. 7 - RHP Mike Wright
Ht/Wt - 6'5", 195
B/T - R/R
Age at 6/13 - 23y 6m
Drafted 3:4 by Baltimore in 2011
Prospect Grade - C+ (41)
To me, Mike Wright is someone like Jim Johnson. He is a pitcher who induces groundballs with an interesting breaking ball. Wright has an interesting, flashy above average slider while Johnson has a curve. Wright also throw a four seamer, a curve, and has a decent changeup. With those pitches at his disposal, the team wants to bring Wright along as a starter. He may struggle at times, like he did last year in Bowie, but he should be able to progress through the minors as a decent starting pitcher.
The trick for him would be to continue success with his two seam fastball. As he moves up from level to level, his two seamer will have more difficulty in resulting in swing and misses as well as swing and poorly hit balls as batters are more capable of discerning when the sink will drop the ball below the strike zone. My rule of thumb for groundball pitchers without any steady plus pitches is to force them to be successful at each level. It is the same reason why I was hesitant about Zach Britton and Brad Bergesen being successful Major Leaguers.
Wright is a useful prospect. With more consistency from his slider, he profiles as a solid middle reliever. For now, he will likely begin in Bowie as a starting pitcher with Norfolk coming in 2014.
No. 8 - INF Adrian Marin
Ht/Wt - 5'10", 165
B/T - R/R
Age at 6/13 - 19y 3m
Drafted 3:4 by Baltimore in 2012
Prospect Grade - C+ (40)
I aggressively rate shortstop prospects, so that might be putting a bit of a shine on Marin for me. It simply is incredibly difficult at this time to find solid options for shortstop. With such scarcity, any potential shortstop carries good value for me. Adding to Marin's worth has been positive comments that have been shared with me from two evaluators. In the long run, I am not sure what his value as a shortstop is to the Orioles, but that is an issue to be dealt with a few years from now. There is no reason to think about that right now.
So, Marin's value is tied to him being a shortstop because his bat is not going to carry him. At times, he produces great velocity as the ball jumps off the bat. Last year, that produced doubles and triples. With a little more loft, they should turn into a few home runs, but it is unlikely though that the bat produces much more than a handful in any given year. Again, that kind of player works if he sticks at shortstop. If he has to shift to second or third, the bat will have to exceed expectations or he would need to become the best defensive second baseman or third baseman in the game. Marin has the reflexes and speed to make up for an average arm as a shortstop. I would estimate he may be ready for the Majors in 2016 if everything works out.
No. 9 -RHP Clay Shrader
Ht/Wt - 5'11", 200
B/T - L/R
Age at 6/13 - 23y 2m
Drafted 10:3 by Baltimore in 2010
Prospect Grade - C (39)
Schrader would have probably fallen off the this list if not for being somewhat championed by Joe Reisel. Last year, the Depot had him at the nine slot as well, but with more hope than I currently have. There certainly are things to like about him. He has a plus mid 90s fastball that has a great deal of movement, resulting in swings and misses. However, who knows where it will wind up? As his walk totals suggest, Schrader struggles greatly with his command. Additionally, he has a plus slider that breaks hard and is also a true swing and miss pitch. Again, it dances around the strike zone as well.
His success will depend on how well he can gain control of his pitches. Although it involves only 23 innings, one should expect his walk rate to increase and his strikeout rate to decrease as he moves up the ladder. That expected outcome has largely followed him throughout his minor league career. Advanced hitters will face will hold off against more pitches on the edge of the strike and force him to prove he has command of his pitches. If he cannot cut his walk rate down from 7 batters per 9 innings, then he will need to retain a 13 or more strikeouts per 9 innings to be of any use. That will be difficult. Simply put, he is going to put a lot of baserunners on first and that usually is a bad thing.
No. 10 - OF Xavier Avery
Ht/Wt - 6'0", 190
B/T - L/L
Age at 6/13 - 23y 6m
Drafted 2:4 by Baltimore in 2010
Prospect Grade - C (39)
Baltimore statistics:
There is certainly a certainty in the value of Xavier Avery. He is now a 23 year old who profiles well as a defensive fourth outfielder with speed who could face a right handed pitcher of the bench. He does not offer plus defense as his solid range with improving routes is balanced by a pretty dreadful arm. It is important to remember that he has been able to hold his own at every step along the way even though he has been one of the youngest players at each level.
My hesitancy in valuing him more is that I cannot see what it is that he can become. I do not see him adding much more in terms of power and his inability to hit left handed pitching severely limits his usefulness as a full time player. The key for him will be to improve his contact rate. If he can push it up to where he could bat .280 line at the MLB level, he could be a very valuable as it probably puts him as a .750 to .800 OPS hitter against righties. That could work. Again, though, I am not aware of a single other batter who has been able to perform at a MLB average level of performance after being a mid to low .200 batting average hitter with no power in the minors. I do expect him to be offered many opportunities over the next 5-8 years to prove me wrong.
Others considered:
Branden Kline - RHP
Josh Hader - LHP
Henry Urrutia - OF
Hector Veloz - INF/OF
Glynn Davis - OF
Ty Kelly - INF
No. 6 - CIF Nicky Delmonico
Ht/Wt - 6'2", 196
B/T - L/R
Age at 6/13 - 20y 11m
Drafted 6:4 by Baltimore in 2011
Prospect Grade - C+ (44)
Last year, Delmonico rated as our sixth prospect, but was viewed slightly more positively than he was graded this year. What was good about 2012? As a 19 year old in full season A ball, Delmonico certainly held his own in the batter's box making up for poor contact with a strong walk rate and a very promising display of power. His .770 OPS was 12% greater than the league average when park factors are considered. The optimist would note that his poor June numbers (.688 OPS) coincided with a knee injury while his numbers in May and July were greater than .800. Regardless of your viewpoint on how to use those numbers, these numbers are excellent for a 19 year old in A ball.
My concern comes from two things: health and defense. A back injury was a major reason why Delmonico dropped from a high round draft pick to the sixth round. In his first professional season, he strained his knee. As a rule, back and knee injuries cause me a great deal of concern. This is particularly true for a player who is playing second base where they get torn up and blindsided while turning double plays. The good news for Delmonico is that he really cannot play second and will be shifted off to first, third, or maybe even the outfield. A catcher in high school, a second baseman in his first professional year, and now sitting on the hot corner. The uncertainty in his defensive home hopefully gets resolved giving him more time to concentrate on his bat, which in the end is what will carry him to the show. With that in mind, any struggle with the bat and he becomes minor league depth.
No. 7 - RHP Mike Wright
Ht/Wt - 6'5", 195
B/T - R/R
Age at 6/13 - 23y 6m
Drafted 3:4 by Baltimore in 2011
Prospect Grade - C+ (41)
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | Lev | W | L | G | GS | IP | HR | BB | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 21 | Orioles | GULF | Rk | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 |
| 2011 | 21 | Aberdeen | NYPL | A- | 2 | 1 | 3.77 | 7 | 7 | 31.0 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 8.4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 8.4 |
| 2011 | 21 | Delmarva | SALL | A | 1 | 1 | 10.54 | 4 | 1 | 13.2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 13.8 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 7.9 |
| 2012 | 22 | Frederick | CARL | A+ | 5 | 2 | 2.91 | 8 | 8 | 46.1 | 3 | 5 | 35 | 9.1 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 6.8 |
| 2012 | 22 | Bowie | EL | AA | 5 | 3 | 4.91 | 12 | 12 | 62.1 | 7 | 17 | 45 | 10.3 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 6.5 |
The trick for him would be to continue success with his two seam fastball. As he moves up from level to level, his two seamer will have more difficulty in resulting in swing and misses as well as swing and poorly hit balls as batters are more capable of discerning when the sink will drop the ball below the strike zone. My rule of thumb for groundball pitchers without any steady plus pitches is to force them to be successful at each level. It is the same reason why I was hesitant about Zach Britton and Brad Bergesen being successful Major Leaguers.
Wright is a useful prospect. With more consistency from his slider, he profiles as a solid middle reliever. For now, he will likely begin in Bowie as a starting pitcher with Norfolk coming in 2014.
No. 8 - INF Adrian Marin
Ht/Wt - 5'10", 165
B/T - R/R
Age at 6/13 - 19y 3m
Drafted 3:4 by Baltimore in 2012
Prospect Grade - C+ (40)
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | Lev | G | PA | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 18 | Orioles | GULF | Rk | 47 | 193 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 34 | .287 | .339 | .360 |
| 2012 | 18 | Delmarva | SALL | A | 6 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .286 | .348 | .286 |
So, Marin's value is tied to him being a shortstop because his bat is not going to carry him. At times, he produces great velocity as the ball jumps off the bat. Last year, that produced doubles and triples. With a little more loft, they should turn into a few home runs, but it is unlikely though that the bat produces much more than a handful in any given year. Again, that kind of player works if he sticks at shortstop. If he has to shift to second or third, the bat will have to exceed expectations or he would need to become the best defensive second baseman or third baseman in the game. Marin has the reflexes and speed to make up for an average arm as a shortstop. I would estimate he may be ready for the Majors in 2016 if everything works out.
No. 9 -RHP Clay Shrader
Ht/Wt - 5'11", 200
B/T - L/R
Age at 6/13 - 23y 2m
Drafted 10:3 by Baltimore in 2010
Prospect Grade - C (39)
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | Lev | W | L | G | GS | IP | HR | BB | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 20 | Aberdeen | NYPL | A- | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 7 | 0 | 8.0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 11.2 |
| 2010 | 20 | Delmarva | SALL | A | 0 | 1 | 6.75 | 3 | 0 | 4.0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 13.5 |
| 2011 | 21 | Delmarva | SALL | A | 1 | 1 | 2.05 | 12 | 0 | 22.0 | 1 | 13 | 38 | 4.5 | 0.4 | 5.3 | 15.5 |
| 2011 | 21 | Frederick | CARL | A+ | 1 | 1 | 1.12 | 15 | 0 | 24.0 | 1 | 19 | 35 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 7.1 | 13.1 |
| 2012 | 22 | Frederick | CARL | A+ | 1 | 1 | 1.29 | 23 | 0 | 35.0 | 0 | 27 | 51 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 6.9 | 13.1 |
| 2012 | 22 | Bowie | EL | AA | 1 | 0 | 2.74 | 19 | 0 | 23.0 | 1 | 24 | 17 | 5.9 | 0.4 | 9.4 | 6.7 |
His success will depend on how well he can gain control of his pitches. Although it involves only 23 innings, one should expect his walk rate to increase and his strikeout rate to decrease as he moves up the ladder. That expected outcome has largely followed him throughout his minor league career. Advanced hitters will face will hold off against more pitches on the edge of the strike and force him to prove he has command of his pitches. If he cannot cut his walk rate down from 7 batters per 9 innings, then he will need to retain a 13 or more strikeouts per 9 innings to be of any use. That will be difficult. Simply put, he is going to put a lot of baserunners on first and that usually is a bad thing.
No. 10 - OF Xavier Avery
Ht/Wt - 6'0", 190
B/T - L/L
Age at 6/13 - 23y 6m
Drafted 2:4 by Baltimore in 2010
Prospect Grade - C (39)
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | Lev | G | PA | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 18 | Orioles | GULF | Rk | 47 | 192 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 51 | .280 | .333 | .337 |
| 2009 | 19 | Delmarva | SALL | A | 129 | 509 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 30 | 10 | 27 | 111 | .262 | .306 | .340 |
| 2010 | 20 | Frederick | CARL | A+ | 109 | 498 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 28 | 14 | 42 | 96 | .280 | .349 | .389 |
| 2010 | 20 | Bowie | EL | AA | 27 | 120 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 34 | .234 | .288 | .374 |
| 2011 | 21 | Bowie | EL | AA | 138 | 626 | 31 | 2 | 4 | 36 | 14 | 49 | 156 | .259 | .324 | .343 |
| 2012 | 22 | Norfolk | IL | AAA | 102 | 458 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 7 | 51 | 106 | .236 | .330 | .356 |
| Year | Age | G | PA | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 22 | 32 | 107 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 23 | .223 | .305 | .340 | .645 | 76 |
My hesitancy in valuing him more is that I cannot see what it is that he can become. I do not see him adding much more in terms of power and his inability to hit left handed pitching severely limits his usefulness as a full time player. The key for him will be to improve his contact rate. If he can push it up to where he could bat .280 line at the MLB level, he could be a very valuable as it probably puts him as a .750 to .800 OPS hitter against righties. That could work. Again, though, I am not aware of a single other batter who has been able to perform at a MLB average level of performance after being a mid to low .200 batting average hitter with no power in the minors. I do expect him to be offered many opportunities over the next 5-8 years to prove me wrong.
Others considered:
Branden Kline - RHP
Josh Hader - LHP
Henry Urrutia - OF
Hector Veloz - INF/OF
Glynn Davis - OF
Ty Kelly - INF
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