Arrivals And Departures: Improving The 25th Man

There was a great deal of roster juggling this past week, so I will only list when players arrived or left the organization.

      8/4/15 - signed RHP Andrew Robinson to a Minor League Deal
     8/7/15 - recalled LF/DH Junior Lake and DFAed OF Travis Snider
     8/8/15 - released RHP Bud Norris
     8/9/15 - signed LHP Nick Additon to a Minor League Deal

To provide enough information to be dangerous on the smaller deals, Additon and Robinson are likely only to be expected to provide pitching depth.  You may remember Additon from last year when he signed with the Orioles system after leaving the Cardinals organization.  He found success in Bowie with a nice run of five games, but found it difficult to replicate that performance in Norfolk and was relegated to the bullpen.  This year he signed with Milwaukee and was brutalized pitching at Colorado Springs.  What kind of pitcher is he?  Additon maxes out around 88, but is able to play that off of good feel for a changeup and excellent control.  He has never tasted the Majors even though he has logged 108 games at AAA with 73 starting.

I cannot make you dangerous on Andrew Robinson.  I have nothing on him either than him being released after having a successful 34 game stint in the bullpen for the Braves AA team.

This past week also saw the Orioles throw the towel on Travis Snider.  They acquired Snider for Stephen Tarpley and Steven Brault.  Tarpley has solved A ball with a 2.32 ERA and an 8.8 K/9 over 14 starts.  However, he is regarded by some in the industry as still not being among the Pirates top 20 prospects.  Brault has risen to AA and has a 2.80 ERA and a 9.7 K/9 over 10 starts.  He also is not regarded as a front line prospect despite the dominating performance.  In other words, these two still appear to be on a path to being somewhat meaningful middle relievers, which would be worth more than what Snider was worth for the Orioles this year.

Snider was acquired to increase the odds that the Orioles would have right field resolved after the departure of Nick "Two Home Runs" Markakis.  As we all know, corner outfield has been a major issue for the club this year and is now being largely addressed with Chris Davis pretending to be an outfielder and deadline acquisition Gerardo Parra.  Snider's 237/318/341 bat was relegated to the bench, which marked the beginning of the end.  He showed poor contact, poor power, and a marginal walk rate.  It was reminiscent of his performance when he suffered from bone spurs in his foot a couple seasons ago.  This year there has been no word about any foot injury, so that might simply be a convenient narrative without any truth to it.

With Snider's departure, in comes what might well be a bit of a merry-go-round.  Junior Lake is politely described as a "post-prospect."  Lake raged through the minors, showing off flashes of basepath brilliance and big power.  These tools were particularly interesting as the Cubs kept trotting him out at shortstop.  Eventually, they gave up on that defensive experiment and shifted him to the corner outfield where he also has shown little aptitude.  He also lost his baserunning prowess along the way.  What remains is a 25-year-old who has 646 plate appearances over several cups of coffee in the Majors and a slash line of 241/283/381.  Maybe the club sees something in Lake that Snider did not have or maybe Lake is simply not Snider or, more cynically, they felt they had to bring Lake up for a cup of coffee to explain away why they dumped Tommy Hunter.

Over the next week, it would not be surprising to see Lake drop back down to Norfolk.  Others following the team have offered outfielder David Lough as a DFA candidate.  The argument goes that Gerardo Parra provides the team with a backup centerfielder, which was the main function Lough served.  This year Lough has seen his hitting crater with a 213/256/336 slash.  He appears to be more willing to swing early in the count.  Also, echoing sentiment from what Buck has professed Lough to do, he is putting the ball on the ground more with softer contact and is no longer trying to pull the ball.  My suggestion here is that the Orioles have tinkered with Lough, making him into something that is unworkable for him.  He needs to go back to focusing on driving the ball and stop slapping.  If he can somehow perform similarly as he did last year, he could be worth about 0.6 wins over the last two months.

Your 40 man roster with options:

Ben Revere Could Help The Orioles

As of this writing, the Orioles find themselves 6.5 games out of first place in the AL East and 2.5 games out of the second wild card spot, with no other team currently in front of them. However, nearly the rest of the American League is in a similar situation, with only a total of four teams being more than 5 games behind the Twins. Even though the standings could look very different by the time the trade deadline arrives, the Orioles have recently stated (again) that they will be buying at the deadline.

As the title suggests, this article will focus on the idea that acquiring Ben Revere from the Phillies would help the Orioles. Admittedly, the post would have probably been more appropriate last week, prior to Baltimore getting swept by the Yankees. To have a more realistic chance at making a run at the playoffs, the Orioles may be better suited to make a run at more of a difference maker such as Justin Upton (and/or Wil Myers) as Jon suggested Monday (especially in the aftermath of Toronto's acquisition of Troy Tulowitzki). So while Revere may not be one of the sexiest options for a corner outfield acquisition (Matt went over all the sexy and not so sexy options last week), I still think he could help improve the team both this year and beyond, which is important if Baltimore has any plans to be competitive in the near future (considering their shallow farm system and impending free agent exodus).

Ben Revere may be playing for someone else next week

When one thinks of Ben Revere, productive corner outfielder most likely isn’t the first thing that comes to mind. After all, corner outfield positions are associated with power hitting…power hitters who don’t have to play defense all that well to justify a spot in the lineup. By contrast, Revere is a 27-year-old outfielder listed at 5’9” and 170 lbs on the Phillies website (so consider him slightly less in both regards) who has a reputation of being a slap-hitting speedster with a weak outfield arm. That reputation is justifiable, as Revere has a career ISO of .053 and 3 home runs in over 2,400 plate appearances. However, if one only looks at the paltry power numbers, the bigger picture is being missed. That bigger picture is that Ben Revere is a league average hitter in 2015 who has contributed 1.9 wins above replacement in approximately half a year’s worth of plate appearances.

Revere is currently sporting a triple slash line of .302/.340/.381, which is good for a 101 wRC+, which would put him behind only Adam Jones and Nolan Reimold among Orioles outfielders, although Reimold has only accumulated 67 PAs (I’m considering Chris Davis a first baseman here). Yes, his offensive production is largely dependent on batting average, which makes his acquisition a little riskier, but he’s been very consistent over the last 3 years, as the table shows.

Revere isn’t necessarily another platoon player either, something of which the Orioles have plenty. While he’s had trouble against left-handers in 2015 (58 wRC+ in 92 PAs), he’s actually hit better against them than he has against right-handers over the course of his career (90 wRC+ against LHP in 715 PAs versus 85 wRC+ against RHP in 1,687 PAs). This could be a result of batted ball luck, but it illustrates that he’s not completely helpless against them.

If there is a significant difference in his offensive game this year, it’s his increased line drive rate (5% higher than career levels), which is likely driving his power “spike.” That increase in line drives has come at the expense of ground balls, but as long as those line drives don’t start turning into fly balls (the equivalent of baseball death for a player with Revere’s skill set), he should continue to produce at the plate as long as he retains his plus plus speed, which at 27 years old, should not be an issue over the next few years barring injury.

Speaking of Revere’s speed, he’s got plenty as he’s stolen 169 bases in 209 attempts over his career, good for an 80.8% success rate. He’s been better than that in 2014 and 2015 stealing 73 bases while being successful nearly 85% of the time. He’s consistently been one of the best baserunners in the game (Fangraphs has him worth 26.3 Baserunning Runs above average throughout his career) and would add a different element to an Orioles lineup that relies heavily on the home run. The Orioles are currently ranked 21st in Baserunning Runs, with 4.1 runs below average.

Revere’s speed benefits him on defense as well as it helps cover up some of the adventurous routes he takes at times to run down fly balls. Overall, he grades out as a plus defender in the corners according to UZR/150 (11.3 runs above average in LF and 18.7 in RF) and an average defender in CF in admittedly a much larger sample size 0.7 runs above average). Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) is more pessimistic, having him as a slightly below average left fielder (-2 DRS in 524.1 innings), terrible in center field (-24 DRS in 3,308.1 innings), and above average in right field (11 DRS in 854 innings). Luckily with Adam Jones already on the roster, Revere would only need to play center in an emergency. He’s best suited for left field, as his weak arm – which has been worth 8.1 runs below average – is his biggest liability in the field.

The acquisition of Revere should be at least a 0.5 win upgrade over what the Orioles currently have on their roster. Zips projects Revere to be worth 0.7 wins the rest of season, while it projects Travis Snider, Chris Parmelee, and David Lough at 0.2 wins each (Nolan Reimold projects to be worth 0.1 wins for the remainder of 2015). He’s also under team control through 2017, which should be attractive to an Orioles team that does not have any position players in the farm system ready to contribute anytime soon. He’s not necessarily cheap though, as he is making $4.1 million in 2015 during his second round of arbitration (the Orioles would be on the hook for approximately $1.64 million in 2015). As a former super two player, he’ll get more expensive during his 3rd and 4th years of arbitration, but the Orioles will also have the opportunity to non-tender him if they don’t expect his production to match his escalating price.

So what would it take for the Phillies to part with Revere? I'm not exactly sure how each team would value these players, but I would think Parker Bridwell and a low minors lottery ticket would at least get the conversation started. Bridwell was the Orioles’ 17th best prospect heading into the 2015 season according to MLB.com. He’s a 23-year-old right-hander with good stuff and command issues, so there’s a chance he ends up in the bullpen. He’s currently pitching in Double-AA Bowie and has a 3.99 ERA, striking out 93 and walking 38 in 97 IP. Ultimately, acquiring an average, if unspectacular outfielder in Revere could help the team in 2015 and beyond (without necessarily being tied to him long term) at a potentially reasonable price. Don’t get me wrong, it wouldn’t be the most exciting trade, but it improves the Orioles now without mortgaging the future.

Orioles Re-Sign Julio Borbon as AAA Insurance

Among the minor league free agents the Orioles signed this offseason is outfielder Julio Borbon. This is an unusual signing because the 29-year-old Borbon had only been in the Orioles system for one season. Most minor league free agents who re-sign with their current team have been in the system for several seasons; once a player signs with a new organization as a minor league free agent, he will usually move from team to team. Borbon's re-signing with the Orioles tells us a lot about the organization.

One reason the Orioles re-signed Borbon is that they don't believe that there is a viable in-house candidate to play center field at AAA. There's good reason for that belief. In 2014, the Norfolk center fielders were Borbon himself and Quintin Berry, both minor league free agents (three other players played a couple of games apiece.) The center fielders at AA Bowie were Dariel Alvarez, who is being groomed as a right fielder, and Mike Yastrzemski, who reached AA in his first full season and who is stretched as a center fielder. Borbon played well for Norfolk in 2014 (.284/.342/.356, with 34 stolen bases in 44 attempts) and a source in the organization has told me that the Orioles liked Borbon in the clubhouse.

Also, the Orioles had very little offensive speed in the upper levels of their system. Other than Borbon, players still in the organization combined for ten stolen bases with Norfolk in 2014; this includes the contributions of catchers Brian Ward and Steve Clevenger. As a team, Double-A Bowie stole 46 stolen bases (in 75 attempts) in 2014. Borbon fills an organizational need for a speedy player, who is also a center fielder.

Julio Borbon in his primary offensive role. Photo courtesy of Christopher McCain/Norfolk Tides

Borbon may also have a potential role on the major-league Orioles. He's a similar type of player to David Lough; an outfielder with [presumably] good defensive skills and iffy offensive skills. If Lough gets off to another slow start, perhaps the Orioles will consider Borbon as a short-term replacement. Or, if the Orioles are again in the postseason race come September 1, Borbon may be added to the expanded roster as a pinch-runner / defensive replacement, much like Quintin Berry was added in 2014. But that does raise a question - is Borbon a good defensive outfielder?

Borbon played most of his defense in center field, which in and of itself is a strong indicator that he's a good defensive outfielder. This is more true because he played center field even though Berry, a rangy (albeit weak-armed) outfielder, was also on the team; Berry mainly played left field. I compared Borbon's outfield putouts to the putouts of the other Norfolk 2014 center fielders; if he performed better than they did, that's another indicator that he's a good outfielder. I have data for 523 of Norfolk's defensive innings (41.1%), and the table below shows the number of putouts registered by the center fielders:

	Innings	Putouts	Putouts / 9 Innings
Julio Borbon	359	115	2.88
Non-Borbon	164	53	2.91
Dariel Alvarez	38	10	2.37
Quintin Berry	91	38	3.76
Francisco Peguero	26	1	0.35
Jemile Weeks	9	4

Borbon made almost exactly the number of putouts as did the other center fielders in theses games, but the data has many anomalies. While Francisco Peguero really isn't a center fielder, he probably isn't as bad as his performance here would show. As expected, Quintin Berry did show outstanding range, but his numbers are inflated by one game in which he made nine putouts. Factoring all this into account, the best conclusion we can draw is that the data neither confirms nor contradicts the idea that Borbon is a good defensive outfielder.

The signing of Julio Borbon confirms what followers of the Orioles' farm system already believed, that the Orioles farm system is weak in advanced center fielders. I'm glad that Borbon will [most likely] be the Norfolk center fielder, and there's a chance we'll see him with the Orioles in 2015.

Can We Trust Lough's Defense?

Before David Lough went on his hot offensive streak in the middle of last season, Jon made the argument that Lough is actually a starter in disguise due to his excellent defense. He noted that Lough’s defense has been consistent for each season and projects to make him nearly a 2 WAR player over a full season. Pat suggested yesterday that an outfield consisting primarily of Adam Jones, Steve Pearce, Alejandro De Aza, and Lough could be acceptable. Certainly understanding Lough's value would be helpful. The main question is whether or not one can believe that Lough's defense is as valuable as UZR suggests.

Jon also noted in his earlier article that Lough’s defense may have been consistent for each season but that he’s played a limited number of innings in the field. So I looked at all outfielders that played at least 500 innings in the outfield from 2012-2014, and saw some surprising players in the top 20 in total UZR. For example, Lough’s total UZR was good for 11^th out of 193 outfielders despite ranking 117^th in innings. Lorenzo Cain and Juan Lagares were in the top five in total UZR despite ranking 58^th and 87^th in innings. Craig Gentry ranked seventh despite playing 12 more innings than Lagares. Dyson ranked ninth playing only 113 more innings than Lagares. This trend continues for outfielders that played 500 or more innings in the outfield from 2010-2012. Gardner ranked #1 in UZR and 59^th out of 183 in innings. Peter Bourjos ranked #2 in UZR and 70^th in innings. If outfielders with a minimal amount of innings playing in the outfield (i.e small sample sizes) have some of the highest UZRs then is there a correlation between innings played on defense and UZR? If not, then it may not make sense to say that an outfielders defensive value will improve if he plays more innings.

In the same vein, it seems reasonable to presume that players with more plate appearances produce more runs than those with fewer plate appearances because teams are far more likely to demote a player that is struggling offensively than one that is not struggling offensively. In other words, there should be correlation between plate appearances and total offensive production.

It's possible to answer this question. For each player from 2002-2014, I downloaded the number of innings they played at each position, their UZR at each position, their total number of plate appearances, and their “batting” score as derived by Fangraphs. Fangraphs "batting" score attempts to quantify the value of an offensive player by determine the number of runs above average his offensive production was worth in a given season. Then, I did a correlation analysis between innings and UZR as well as between plate appearances and “batting”. If there is a relationship between innings and UZR then I would expect to see a moderate correlation between these variables and a similar correlation between those statistics and the correlation between plate appearance and “batting.” Here's a table with the results.

The results suggest that the average correlation between innings and UZR is about .077. Defense intensive positions such as second base, third base, shortstop, and center field have larger albeit still low correlations than those for positions like first base, left field, and right field. The results for the correlation between PAs and "batting" tell a different story.



The average correlation between PAs and “batting” was .376. The largest correlations were at offensive positions such as first base, left field, and right field while there was practically no correlation at shortstop. It should come as no surprise that teams don't give shortstops playing time based on their ability to hit.

These results suggest that there is correlation between offensive production and plate appearances but not between UZR and innings played in the field and therefore it doesn’t make sense to give a player credit for a high defensive score that occurs in only part of a season. This explains why outfielders  that only play a limited number of innings consistently have some of the highest UZRs.

There is another possible way to interpret these results. These results could mean that managers don’t value UZR highly while valuing offensive production. If this is the case then there should be a similar correlation between innings and the absolute value of UZR as well as plate appearances and the absolute value of the “batting” statistic.

The average correlation between innings and the absolute value of UZR is .65 while the average correlation between plate appearances and the absolute value of “batting” is .52. This suggests that there is a moderate to high correlation between innings and UZR. It’s just that players that play a lot of innings at a position have a high absolute value that is either positive or negative. In other words, managers care less about whether their players have a low UZR than they do about whether their player is producing offensively. If UZR does measure defense accurately then this suggests that managers don’t value defense as highly as offense especially at offense-oriented positions.

This test is inconclusive in determining whether one should feel comfortable projecting Lough to be an excellent defender based on his UZR and performance in a limited sample. This should make us pause before overly valuing a limited period of good defense. Indeed, players like Nyjer Morgan, Ryan Sweeney, Andrew Torres, Tony Gwynn Jr., Gerardo Parra, and Ben Revere are all guys that put up strong defensive numbers in a limited amount of innings and then came crashing back to earth, and Lough could follow the same path.

This suggests one of two things. Either teams have better defensive metrics than UZR and therefore don't give its ratings high credence or that teams simply value offense more than defense especially for corner outfielders. This second scenario is probably bad news for outfielders like Jason Heyward. If UZR isn't a good defensive metric then it's likely that Lough's value is highly exaggerated. If UZR is a good defensive metric then finding a corner outfielder with good defense is an easy and undervalued way to improve. If so then even if the Orioles don't trust Lough's defense they should consider finding a proven player with similar strengths.

Photo via Keith Allison

The 2015 Orioles Outfield Will Be Fine Without Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis

Photo by Keith Allison

Two key members of the Orioles' 2014 outfield, Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis, are free agents. Cruz, as expected, rejected the club's qualifying offer, which means the Orioles will get a draft pick as compensation if he signs with another club. The club declined Markakis' mutual option and did not extend him a qualifying offer, so there is no compensation if he signs elsewhere.

Many people still think the Orioles are the favorite for Cruz, and he has made it clear that his first choice is to return to Baltimore. While most people around the team still expect Markakis to return to the club, that outcome seems less likely than it did a week ago.

Losing both of these players would mean a loss of 6.4 fWAR from the Orioles outfield (For the sake of simplicity, I'm considering Cruz, Jones, Markakis, and Lough the Orioles 2014 OF. Yes, Cruz did DH. And Pearce played some OF, but Lough played a lot more innings in the OF than him). This is obviously a noticeable loss and it would be understandable to start scouring the list of free agents and potential trade candidates to replace this loss of production. Here and elsewhere, the name Nori Aoki has been thrown around as a possible replacement.

But, the Orioles outfield will be perfectly fine in 2015 as it stands right now. This isn't to say that they won't or shouldn't make any moves, but there's no need to panic if they don't.

Player	‘14 wRC+	Player	‘15 Projected wRC+
Jones	117	Jones	115
Cruz	137	Pearce	129
Markakis	106	De Aza	104
Lough	95	Lough	92
wRC+ weighted by PA	118	wRC+ weighted by PA	113

While the loss of both Cruz and Markakis feels significant, the drop in offensive production would not be too significant. The Orioles outfield was 18% above league average last season, offensively speaking. In 2015, they are projected to be 13% above average,

The main issue would be the fact that De Aza and Lough both struggle against LHP, but the impact of this could be softened by bringing in a Delmon Young-type player for some AB's against LHP. Those concerned that Pearce will fall harder back to earth than projected raise a fair point, but a spot in the everyday lineup is his to lose entering 2015.

And this says nothing of the defensive improvements this potential 2015 outfield could bring. The positive impact of giving Lough more innings in the outfield has been touched on here before. Swapping out Markakis (career -0.6 UZR/150) for De Aza (3.6) would also provide an upgrade defensively. On top of that, Pearce is an adequate outfielder (career +5.0 UZR/150), while Cruz (+ 2.9) has okay numbers, but he's 34 and not getting any more agile. On top of that, Cruz sure looked a lot worse than +2.9 UZR/150 outfielder last season.

It's still entirely possible that the Orioles will bring back both Cruz and Markakis. If both players leave, I'd expect the team to do something to address the outfield position through trade or free agency. But the need to do so isn't urgent and there's no reason to panic if they enter 2015 with the outfield currently on the roster.

Postseason Roster Crunch: Reviewing the ALDS and Previewing the ALCS

Photo by Keith Allison

Leading up the the ALDS, I wrote a few posts on roster decisions facing the Orioles. I looked at the pitching staff, De Aza vs. Lough, the 3B situation, as well as an overall look at what I projected the final roster would be.

There were a couple things I was wrong about. I looked at 2012 and concluded the Orioles would again go with 12 pitchers in the ALDS. However, this time around the team went with 11 pitchers, which allowed for the Orioles to carry an extra hitter, who, it could be argued, was either David Lough or Jimmy Paredes. Since I am volunteering what I got wrong, I'll also point out that I did mention that Brian Matusz could be excluded if the Orioles faced the Tigers. However, while I acknowledged the possibility, I wouldn't have bet on it. I was also wrong about Ubaldo Jimenez being included on the roster. I didn't see that one coming, and figured the Orioles would carry Ryan Webb or T.J. McFarland instead (or Brian Matusz, but I thought he'd be safe, regardless).

But on to the ALCS roster. While no assumption is safe given the clever way in which this team manages its roster, I would think it's likely that the Orioles carry 12 pitchers this round. And, since a 5-man rotation isn't necessary, pushing a starter to the bullpen capable of being the long-man, Brian Matusz is likely to be the pitcher added, not McFarland.

So, who is going to be excluded in order to make room for Matusz, Lough or Paredes? My guess is Lough. While he's the Orioles best defensive option in LF, De Aza is a perfectly capable defensive replacement for games when Delmon Young or Nelson Cruz start in LF (likely vs LH starters). On top of that, Buck has a lot more options for OF replacements should an unexpected need arise. This isn't the case in the infield, which is why I think Paredes will be included over Lough. What if J.J. Hardy's back flares up and Flaherty has to start a game at SS? Without Paredes on the roster, the Orioles would be left without a backup infielder.

Prediction number 1: Brian Matusz replaces David Lough on the roster. 

In terms of the rotation, I expect it to consist of the same 4 pitchers. As Jeff Long wrote about already, Kevin Gausman could (and probably should) be in the rotation, but it seems unlikely that Buck would change his mind now as to who he thinks are his 4 best options as starters.

There's also the question of Ubaldo. I disagreed with including him on the ALDS roster. However, his inclusion on the ALDS roster makes it all the more likely that he'll also be on the ALCS roster. While it is possible that McFarland could get a spot on the 25-man instead of him, it's not likely.

Prediction number 2: The same 4 pitchers are in the Orioles rotation
Prediction number 3: Ubaldo remains on the roster for the ALCS. 

There's also the issue of Chris Davis. Thanks to the Orioles making quick work of the Tigers, Davis is not eligible to play until Game 6 of the ALCS. However, he must be included on the roster from the start of the series, so the Orioles would have to play with a 24-man roster for 5 games in order for Davis to be available for Game 6. I don't think this will or should happen. Working with a short bench in order to possibly get 2 games worth of plate appearances from a player who was below league average production this season and hasn't seen game action in almost a month (over a month at the time he's eligible) because of an amphetamine suspension? Pass

Prediction number 4: Chris Davis will be left off the ALCS roster. 

Like I said above, the Orioles are clever in their roster management, so they could again surprise us with the roster they submit for the series. But I think the only change that will take place is Brian Matusz being added to the roster at the expense of David Lough.

Postseason Roster Crunch: David Lough or Alejandro De Aza?

Photo by Keith Allison

Previously I looked at the Orioles postseason roster crunch in terms of the pitching staff. This post will look at the outfield roster crunch on the Orioles bench.

On August 31^st, the Orioles acquired Outfielder Alejandro De Aza from the White Sox in exchange for minor leaguers Mark Blackmar and Miguel Chalas. De Aza, 30, saw his first MLB action in 2007 with the Marlins, but he never appeared in more than 54 games in a season until 2012, when he played in 131 games for the White Sox.

Before looking at the choice, a few words on why I think only one of these two guys will be included on the roster. Jones, Markakis, and Cruz will all obviously be on the roster. Steve Pearce, though he’ll likely be primarily used at 1B, will also be on the roster and able to play in the OF. Around the rest of the infield, Schoop, Hardy, and Davis bring us to 7 of the 13 hitters the Orioles will likely carry (I looked at why that is the case in my last post on the postseason roster crunch). Add in the two catchers and Flaherty and we’re at 10. Delmon Young will be the 11^th player. The final two spots will go to an infielder and then Lough or De Aza. This may be glossing things over a bit, but I don’t see much controversy in these assumptions.

So, who should the Orioles carry on their postseason roster, Lough or De Aza? I’m glad you that you asked. First, we'll take a look at their offensive production. 

2014 wRC+

Sample size warnings apply, as this is only numbers from 2014. De Aza's plate appearances from left to right go 84, 373, 457. Lough's are 18, 159, 177.

Lough and De Aza shouldn't come anywhere near a bat when a LHP is on the mound. Whichever one makes the postseason roster should find themselves on the bench vs. LHPs, with Young likely playing instead. Vs. RHP, while both are vastly improved, Lough has still been below league average production, while De Aza has been slightly above. However, De Aaza's complete incompetence vs. LHP keeps him below league average production for the year.

Career wRC+

For context, De Aza's PA go, from left to right, 448, 1567, 2105. Lough's are 95, 482, 577.

The splits are much less drastic over a larger sample size. However, neither player should be considered a viable option when facing a LHP. Lough shows improvement vs. RHP, but is still a decent bit below league average. De Aza's career numbers vs. RHP are just a tick above average, while his career production is just a bit below league average, but better than Lough's.

In summary, neither of these players should be considered vs. LHP. Overall, De Aza has been the more productive hitter and the sample size we are evaluating him based off of consists of nearly 4 times as many PA's than Lough. 

Fielding is going to be an important piece of this decision, as neither of these players is expected to be in the starting lineup everyday, but will likely regularly serve as a defensive replacement for Young or Cruz in LF. Whichever one is on the roster will be the emergency CF, should something happen to Jones, and could also both play RF, if needed. 

Here's a look at their career UZR/150 at each OF position. 

Career UZR/150

Innings left to right for De Aza are 1406.1, 2618.1, and 227.1. For Lough, 478.1, 179.0, 629.2. Obviously there could be a lot of noise here, particularly in Lough's numbers. But, it would be safe to say that neither is a liability in the field, while Lough looks like a plus defender in his limited innings.

Scouting is always an essential part of player evaluation. I find it especially helpful when looking at fielding data. I talked to our very own Jon Shepherd for a feel of the general scouting consensus on both players. For Lough, Jon said that the scouting report is that he's an above average fielder, which aligns with what UZR tells us. Jon told me that De Aza's running and instincts are considered his strengths in the field. However, his arm has often been thought of as inadequate in CF or RF, but okay for LF. 

In summary, both of these guys can play the field well. Lough is generally regarded as the better fielder, but De Aza is far from a liability and would be the Orioles best defensive option in LF if Lough is not on the postseason roster. 

One thing that the Orioles will consider when choosing between these two is how they match up against the opposition's pitching staff. Yes, sample-size concerns are legitimate here, but Showalter is known to heavily weigh match ups. My decision making process wouldn't weigh the following info as heavily, but I'm not the one making the decision. I looked at the 4 members of each rotation with the most starts this year. The numbers are the player's slash line with the number of AB's in parenthesis. Here's how they line up against potential opponents.  

Royals

	De Aza	Lough
Shields	.167/.219/.200 (30)	.500/.500./500 (2)
Vargas	.000/.333/.000 (2)	No AB’s
Ventura	.000/.000/.000 (2)	.000/.000/.000 (5)
Guthrie	.250/.351/.313 (32)	.167/.167/.167 (6)

De Aza has hit poorly against Shields and below average against Guthrie. There's really not much here that I see as a make or break decision, even for Showalter, should the Orioles face the Royals.

Athletics

	De Aza	Lough
Lester	.286/.333/.571 (14)	No AB’s
Samardzjia	.083/.083/.083 (12)	No AB’s
Gray	No AB’s	.000/.500/.000 (1)
Kazmir	.667/.667/.667 (3)	.000/.000/.000 (4)

De Aza'a success vs. Lester really shocked me. Yes, it's only 14 AB's. But considering De Aza's awful splits vs. LHP combined with how good of a pitcher Lester is, I didn't expect his numbers to be anywhere near their respectable level. Could De Aza, who is generally inadequate against LHP, be included against the A's in part because of his success against LHP Lester? 

Angels

	De Aza	Lough
Weaver	.444/.545/.889 (9)	.500/.500/.500 (4)
Wilson	.000/.300/.000 (7)	No AB’s
Shoemaker	1.000/1.000/2.000 (2)	No AB’s
Santiago	No AB’s	.333/.500/.333 (3)

Not a lot that separates either guy here, which is not surprising when looking at sample sizes that are so minuscule. If anything, I suppose there's a slight edge to De Aza

Tigers

	De Aza	Lough
Price	.333/.333/.333 (6)	No AB’s
Scherzer	.256/.333/.349 (43)	.143/.143/.571 (7)
Verlander	.226/.294/.516 (31)	.167/.211/.222 (18)
Porcello	.206/.270/.235 (34)	.286/.375/.429 (7)

De Aza isn't going to force his way onto a roster vs. Detroit because of these numbers. However, Lough's numbers, in less AB's, are pretty poor as well. They both have hit one pitcher decently (De Aza vs. Price, Lough vs. Porcello) in very few AB's and the rest is poor. If the Orioles face the Tigers, I'd expect whichever one is on the roster to spend much of the series out of the lineup.

Mariners

	De Aza	Lough
Hernandez	.200/.333/.200 (10)	.333/.333/.333 (3)
Iwakuma	.111/.200/.111 (9)	.333/.333/.333 (3)
Elias	No AB’s	No AB’s
Young	No AB’s	No AB’s

I think Showalter weighs match-ups enough that, despite only having 6 total AB's, Lough's best chance for making the postseason roster is if the Orioles face the Mariners. De Aza hasn't had success against the two guys he's faced and Lough has managed to do okay in a grand total of 6 AB's. 

And finally, a quick look at base running. De Aza 78 steals and has been caught 35 times in his career. His career BsR is 6.2. Lough has 13 steals and has been caught 7 times in his career. His career BsR is 3.1. Some in Chicago were concerned with De Aza'a base running. Ultimately, both are solid options off the bench to pinch run late in the game for someone such as Cruz or Lough and I don't see either gaining the upper hand because of their base running. 

So, who makes it? I think Lough was given too hard of a time by Orioles fans for his early season struggles at the plate and not given enough credit for his glove. That being said, De Aza is a competent fielder. De Aza also offers more at the plate and has done so over a larger sample size, which is noteworthy because Lough has, so far, outperformed what scouts projected for him as a big league hitter. If I'm deciding the Orioles postseason roster (spolier: I'm not), I'm picking De Aza over Lough. 

All stats courtesy of Fangraphs and ESPN (current as of 9/9/14).