The most-viewed article in the history of Camden Depot is simply titled, "How to Solve the Orioles' Corner Outfield Problem." It was a May 2015 post by Matt Perez that discussed the lack of outfield options in the O's farm system, and Matt suggested trading for Shane Victorino. Somehow, whether it's the SEO-friendly headline, some error in pageview counting, or a combination of things, that post has been viewed more than four times as much as the next-closest post on this site.
The Orioles never traded for Victorino and 2015 ended up being his final season in the major leagues, but they are still dealing with corner outfield issues. After the 2014 season, the Orioles decided to move on from Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis. I was fine with both decisions, though obviously the move not to bring back Cruz looks worse now. Somehow, Cruz has been even better than his rebound season in Baltimore, and his four-year, $57 million deal with the Mariners looks like a bargain. Maybe you wanted him back; maybe you didn't. His career turnaround his still been stunning, and no other team was willing to top that Seattle offer.
The same can't be said for Markakis's time with the Braves. He has maintained solid on-base numbers the last few years, but he still has very little power. Markakis has posted a wRC+ of 106, 98, and 95 in the last three seasons, respectively, and his fWAR has fallen each year as well, from 1.5 to 1.1 to 0.9. Considering his four-year, $44 million contract, Markakis may have helped the O's marginally, but that's it.
We don't need to rehash everything the O's have done to try and get production out of the corner outfield spots. From 2015-2017, O's right fielders have accumulated 5.5 fWAR (17th in MLB). In left field, things have been much worse: -1.8 fWAR (29th).
If you're curious, here are all the ranks for the Orioles in that span:
C: 7.7 fWAR (8th)
1B: 8.4 (7th)
2B: 6.5 (17th)
SS: 4.8 (21st)
3B: 14.4 (7th)
LF: -1.8 (29th)
CF: 5.7 (23rd)
RF: 5.5 (t-17th)
DH: 0.2 (t-13th)
SP: 40.5 (27th)
RP: 22.6 (5th)
A couple of things jump out. First, it's not surprising at all to see the starting pitching rank so poorly. Second, the center field production seems low. Adam Jones has posted a combined fWAR of 7.0 in those seasons as he's received far and away the bulk of playing time. In that period, Jones has 1,875 plate appearances when playing center field; the next closest player is Joey Rickard, with 67.
Of the 10 other center fielders who have seen time the last few years, only two have positive fWARs: Nolan Reimold (0.4) and Joey Rickard (0.1). The O's have really needed it, but they have never really had a competent backup for Jones in center field. That's one reason why the brief playing time given to Junior Lake (-0.2), Austin Hays (-0.4), David Lough (-0.5), and Gerardo Parra (-0.6) is weighing that number down a bit.
Back to the corner outfield discussion. In right field, the main contributor has been Mark Trumbo - or, to be clear, Trumbo in 2016. That year, he was a revelation (offensively). In 2017, he quickly came back to earth. Trumbo's outfield defense will always be a concern, but he has a 135 wRC+ when playing right field for the O's. When slotting in at DH, it drops to 81.
While the O's have made things respectable in right field, the same can't be said for left field. The last three years, they've used 21 different players out there. The best fWAR of the group goes to Trey Mancini, at 0.4. Thirteen of the 21 have posted a negative fWAR. Three others posted an fWAR of 0.
Maybe that's a little confusing, because Hyun Soo Kim posted a 120 wRC+ overall in 2016 and Mancini put up a 117 wRC+ overall in 2017. But when playing left field, Kim's wRC+ was 100 and Mancini's was 101. Kim's infrequent playing time and poor hitting in 2017 dropped his wRC+ significantly, while Mancini has a 157 wRC+ at first base (157 PAs) and a 148 wRC+ at DH (87 PAs). Most of Mancini's best work has come when he isn't playing in the outfield. Plus, while each looked OK at times, neither would be confused for a good defensive outfielder. Mancini seems to be an average defender, at best, while Kim was less so. Still, that Mancini is recognized as average (or close to it) shows improvement on his part.
During the season, I didn't notice that Mancini's best offensive production came at first base and DH. Because it's a small sample of plate appearances, maybe it means nothing. But since Chris Davis is locked in at first base and Trumbo is slated to get the bulk of the at-bats at DH, Mancini is scheduled to be the team's opening day starter in left field. The hope is that Mancini's overall offensive production carries over, and that he'll hit no matter where he plays without doing much harm with his glove. He's really only an outfielder due to the O's roster construction, and it would be more suitable to have him split time at first base and DH while the O's put a better outfielder in left. But unless Trumbo is traded, that's not an option.
With Austin Hays waiting in the wings, there's certainly promise in the O's system for help in right field. But the O's could clearly use more (especially defensively) given that there's no guarantee Hays is ready for a full-time role now. Hays has upside but is unproven, Trumbo will surely still see time in right field, and then behind them there's Jaycob Brugman, Joey Rickard, and Anthony Santander (who needs to spend 44 days on the active roster to fulfill his Rule 5 requirement). There's also Cedric Mullins, who could find himself in Baltimore before the season ends.
The O's current (though maybe misguided) plan is to compete in 2018, and if so, they must do better than relying on Brugman and Rickard. They maybe shouldn't even be relying on Mancini as a full-time outfielder. Brugman and Rickard are fine depth pieces, but more experienced players like Carlos Gomez, Jon Jay, Carlos Gonzalez, Jarrod Dyson, Cameron Maybin, and Melky Cabrera are still out there. Curtis Granderson would have made sense as a low-risk addition, but he just signed with the Blue Jays for $5 million. I'd prefer Dyson or Jay, but almost any of them would be preferable to relying on Rickard again. (Sorry, Rickard fans.)
Showing posts with label Nelson Cruz. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nelson Cruz. Show all posts
22 January 2018
17 July 2015
Don't Waver: The Orioles Made The Right Move With Markakis
Not counting J.J. Hardy's struggles at the plate this season, the most obvious spot to blame for the Orioles' scattered offensive issues is corner outfield. The Orioles have been shuffling between Alejandro De Aza, Steve Pearce, Travis Snider, Delmon Young, David Lough, Nolan Reimold, Chris Parmelee, and now Chris Davis. De Aza (traded) and Young (designated for assignment) are gone, but the rest remain. It seems unlikely that the Orioles will be able to carry this many outfielders for the rest of the season, and it's also probable that they'll continue to pursue trade options.
That brings us to Wednesday's Baltimore Sun column by Dan Connolly. In it, Connolly remarks on the team's non-Adam Jones outfield issues, and he also includes intriguing quotes from Buck Showalter and Jones on dealing with the revolving door of outfielders. Read the article and see what you think.
Let's get this out of the way first, because not much has changed on the Nick Markakis/Nelson Cruz front. It's common for writers and fans alike to look back and say, hey, the Orioles should have brought back Markakis and Cruz (they won the American League East last year! etc.). Both topics have been covered at Camden Depot multiple times, the most recent being on Cruz. In his column, Connolly writes, "Besides having to replace their leadership and potential offensive production, the Orioles have missed a duo that started a combined 217 games in the corner-outfield spots last year. . . . Things, it now can be said, have not worked out as planned."
Obviously the Orioles figured most, if not all, of their corner outfielders would have performed better offensively. And it's hard to look at how Cruz hit in the first half and wonder how that would have helped this year's Orioles.
Still, there's this:
2014: 4.35 runs per game (5th in AL)
2015: 4.40 runs per game (4th)
Anyway, let's focus on Markakis. Do you think the Orioles have missed Markakis's leadership or clubhouse chemistry factor? Perhaps you're right. It's also impossible to prove, just like saying the lack of Jonathan Schoop's "easy smile and playful fun nature" in any way contributed to the O's struggles earlier in the season. The "missing leadership" rationale is frequently applied to fit a narrative when nothing otherwise will.
Instead, when focusing on tangible evidence of Markakis's play in recent years and the first portion of this season, it's more of the same. As Connolly notes, the Orioles were concerned about Markakis requiring offseason neck surgery. And maybe his recovery from that injury has played a part in his power outage.
2012: 284 feet
2013: 271
2014: 268
2015: 260
Now let's check out some batted ball data from FanGraphs. Markakis is not hitting the ball as hard...
2012: 32.6 Hard%
2013: 28.8
2014: 27.3
2015: 27.1
... or pulling it:
2012: 34.2 Pull%
2013: 32.9
2014: 31.4
2015: 29.9
And that's led to an increase in him hitting the ball on the ground:
2012: 41.8 GB%
2013: 46.6
2014: 45.9
2015: 51.4
If Markakis were a faster runner and able to leg out more infield hits, that might be less of an issue. But speed is not part of his game. It's probably a bit fluky that he doesn't have at least one home run, especially since he's hit 20 doubles. Regardless, his .353 slugging percentage would be the worst of his career.
Also, his .381 on-base percentage is very good, and it would be his best mark since 2008. But he's been fortunate on balls in play (.345 BABIP; .317 career mark), and it's unlikely he'll be able to carry on with a walk percentage near 12% (career around 9%), especially since he's seeing the highest percentage of pitches in the strike zone (for him) since 2010 (51.2%). He's not able to do as much damage with one swing, and pitchers are starting to go after him more.
Markakis has a wRC+ of 108, and that would have helped the Orioles somewhat. It's higher than Snider (94), Pearce (89), De Aza (70), and Lough (70). Parmelee and Reimold have hit better, though in much smaller samples. But both UZR and DRS have the O's group of right fielders better defensively than Braves' right fielders (nearly all defensive innings belonging to Markakis):
Orioles RF: +0.6 UZR, +4 DRS
Braves RF: -0.1 UZR, -2 DRS
And remember, the Braves still owe Markakis $31.5 million over the next three seasons.
This team has flaws, but it's still in the playoff race. And yes, the corner outfield plan hasn't worked out so far. The Chris Davis in right field experiment is in full swing, and if he somehow manages to be a mediocre defender, it could work. But thanks to improvements from other players (Manny Machado and Jimmy Paredes, in particular), the O's offense has been just fine (frustrating at times, but fine). Meanwhile, the team's offseason indecision on the starting rotation has probably hurt the team more (not opening a spot for Kevin Gausman) than not bringing Markakis back. But sometimes it's hard to let go.
That brings us to Wednesday's Baltimore Sun column by Dan Connolly. In it, Connolly remarks on the team's non-Adam Jones outfield issues, and he also includes intriguing quotes from Buck Showalter and Jones on dealing with the revolving door of outfielders. Read the article and see what you think.
Let's get this out of the way first, because not much has changed on the Nick Markakis/Nelson Cruz front. It's common for writers and fans alike to look back and say, hey, the Orioles should have brought back Markakis and Cruz (they won the American League East last year! etc.). Both topics have been covered at Camden Depot multiple times, the most recent being on Cruz. In his column, Connolly writes, "Besides having to replace their leadership and potential offensive production, the Orioles have missed a duo that started a combined 217 games in the corner-outfield spots last year. . . . Things, it now can be said, have not worked out as planned."
Obviously the Orioles figured most, if not all, of their corner outfielders would have performed better offensively. And it's hard to look at how Cruz hit in the first half and wonder how that would have helped this year's Orioles.
Still, there's this:
2014: 4.35 runs per game (5th in AL)
2015: 4.40 runs per game (4th)
Anyway, let's focus on Markakis. Do you think the Orioles have missed Markakis's leadership or clubhouse chemistry factor? Perhaps you're right. It's also impossible to prove, just like saying the lack of Jonathan Schoop's "easy smile and playful fun nature" in any way contributed to the O's struggles earlier in the season. The "missing leadership" rationale is frequently applied to fit a narrative when nothing otherwise will.
Instead, when focusing on tangible evidence of Markakis's play in recent years and the first portion of this season, it's more of the same. As Connolly notes, the Orioles were concerned about Markakis requiring offseason neck surgery. And maybe his recovery from that injury has played a part in his power outage.
— Jon Shepherd (@jsbearr) July 13, 2015
Markakis could need more time to fully recover. Watching him in his prime was a joy, and it would be wonderful if he returned to form. But his dwindling power has been a concern for a few years now. According to data from Baseball Heat Maps, here are Markakis's average fly ball distances since 2012:2012: 284 feet
2013: 271
2014: 268
2015: 260
Now let's check out some batted ball data from FanGraphs. Markakis is not hitting the ball as hard...
2012: 32.6 Hard%
2013: 28.8
2014: 27.3
2015: 27.1
... or pulling it:
2012: 34.2 Pull%
2013: 32.9
2014: 31.4
2015: 29.9
And that's led to an increase in him hitting the ball on the ground:
2012: 41.8 GB%
2013: 46.6
2014: 45.9
2015: 51.4
If Markakis were a faster runner and able to leg out more infield hits, that might be less of an issue. But speed is not part of his game. It's probably a bit fluky that he doesn't have at least one home run, especially since he's hit 20 doubles. Regardless, his .353 slugging percentage would be the worst of his career.
Also, his .381 on-base percentage is very good, and it would be his best mark since 2008. But he's been fortunate on balls in play (.345 BABIP; .317 career mark), and it's unlikely he'll be able to carry on with a walk percentage near 12% (career around 9%), especially since he's seeing the highest percentage of pitches in the strike zone (for him) since 2010 (51.2%). He's not able to do as much damage with one swing, and pitchers are starting to go after him more.
Markakis has a wRC+ of 108, and that would have helped the Orioles somewhat. It's higher than Snider (94), Pearce (89), De Aza (70), and Lough (70). Parmelee and Reimold have hit better, though in much smaller samples. But both UZR and DRS have the O's group of right fielders better defensively than Braves' right fielders (nearly all defensive innings belonging to Markakis):
Orioles RF: +0.6 UZR, +4 DRS
Braves RF: -0.1 UZR, -2 DRS
And remember, the Braves still owe Markakis $31.5 million over the next three seasons.
This team has flaws, but it's still in the playoff race. And yes, the corner outfield plan hasn't worked out so far. The Chris Davis in right field experiment is in full swing, and if he somehow manages to be a mediocre defender, it could work. But thanks to improvements from other players (Manny Machado and Jimmy Paredes, in particular), the O's offense has been just fine (frustrating at times, but fine). Meanwhile, the team's offseason indecision on the starting rotation has probably hurt the team more (not opening a spot for Kevin Gausman) than not bringing Markakis back. But sometimes it's hard to let go.
28 May 2015
The Orioles Were Right Not to Re-Sign Nelson Cruz
This is a guest post by Luis Torres. Read more of his work at Taking Back Baseball. You can also follow him on Twitter.
During the first game of the Mariners/Orioles series at Camden Yards, I was perusing my Twitter feed and came across a conversation between Jon Shepherd and Matt Kremnitzer. They were discussing the frustration that O's fans have had over their team's inability to re-sign Nelson Cruz during the offseason. Their frustration with the organization's lack of major acquisitions this past offseason reached a boiling point when Cruz hit a home run off of Miguel González that night. Meanwhile, Orioles' corner outfielders have all been performing at replacement level this season.
It's easy to overreact when you see that one of the best offensive contributors for your team last season is hitting dingers against that very same team this season. With the AL East being as close and competitive as it has been, one could assume that Cruz could've been a difference maker. However, you can't draw such a conclusion six weeks into the season, and you certainly can't draw conclusions on a four-year contract seven weeks into year one.
Contrary to popular belief, trades and free agent signings are to be evaluated when they are announced. Not during, and not after the contract is up, but before the player's first game is even played. In baseball anything can happen, including good results from bad decisions. The only fair, logical way to evaluate acquisitions is to go by the information that you know at the time. Let's take a look at what we knew about Nelson Cruz when the Mariners signed him.
The Mariners are paying $58 million for the age 34-37 seasons of a player who is a slow, poor outfielder, and is likely to age poorly due to his lack of athleticism. He's basically a DH who is a low OBP, high SLG hitter. I won't go into too much detail as to why I didn't like this deal for the Mariners, suffice it to say that their general manager, Jack Zduriencik, keeps paying for power when his team has finished last in the AL in OBP in four of the last five seasons and were second to last in the other.
By being smarter than Zduriencik, the Orioles avoided paying $58 million to an aging slugger and got a compensation pick in the process. That may be of little consolation to Orioles fans right now, but the thing is that Cruz is grossly overperforming and is going to come back down to earth. Remember him doing the same thing last year? Through May 2014, Cruz enjoyed a 27.9% HR/FB ratio and .324 BABIP, which fueled his outstanding .440 wOBA and 19 HR. Seeing how his career rates consisted of a 16.6% HR/FB and .302 BABIP going into that season, it was obviously unsustainable and proved to be so. From June 1 through the rest of the season, those rates dropped to a 15.9% HR/FB and .272 BABIP, resulting in a .331 wOBA and 20 HR. In other words, he turned back into Nelson Cruz. Not that Cruz playing like himself was a bad thing, especially for only $8 million. It was actually one of my favorite signings prior to the 2014 season.
Cruz is currently hitting .341/.398/.688 with 17 HR, which is good for a .458 wOBA and 2.2 WAR. He's leading the AL in AVG, SLG, HR, Total Bases, and wOBA. His OBP is second only to Miguel Cabrera. He's even better than he was at this point last year, and like last year, it's because of even higher and flukier batted ball stats. He currently has a whopping .376 BABIP and 30.9% HR/FB! This is all without any significant changes to his batted ball rates, too. For how much longer is it reasonable to believe that he's going to continue hitting almost one-third of his fly balls over the fence? Cruz is grossly outperforming even his 90th percentile PECOTA projections of a .351 wOBA by 107 points!
About all those home runs -- let's take a look at the pitchers who gave them up to Cruz. The following numbers are the pitchers' ZiPS projections going into this season.
There are a few good pitchers in there, but overall it's an underwhelming group.
At the time of the signing, Dan Szymborski, who is also an Orioles fan, tweeted out his disdain for the deal. In the tweet, Szymborski included the ZiPS projections for Cruz's years with the Mariners, assuming he'd be their primary DH. Remember that projections are not predictions. They are a measure of true talent level. Here's an excerpt from that table:
While I'm not a fan of the generic $/WAR metrics out there because I believe that they're too oversimplified, $58 million and a first round pick for 4.3 WAR is a pretty bad deal. Furthermore, the ZiPS model may be overestimating the number of games that Cruz will play. He's been a bit injury prone in his career, having played over 130 games in a season only twice. Obviously, getting older isn't going to make that any better. Even with his poor defense, he'd still be an upgrade over the poor corner outfielders that the Orioles have been trotting out there, but it'd come at a high price. By the time his contract enters its third year, Cruz is likely to be just as bad as those guys anyway.
OK, those were the numbers, so now let's take a look at the scouting information. Mark Anderson wrote up a scouting report for Baseball Prospectus this past October. I won't go over it in detail, but I will show the scouting grades. For those of you who are unfamiliar, these grades come from the 20-80 scouting scale.
Nelson Cruz is currently playing like an 80 hitter with 80 power. Those players are incredibly rare. The only player in today's game who fits that description is Miguel Cabrera. There's only a handful of players who fit that description in the past 20 years: Albert Pujols, Manny Ramírez, Barry Bonds, Frank Thomas, and...that's it. It truly is a uniquely special talent to be able to combine an 80 hit tool with 80 power. Is it really reasonable to believe that Cruz has turned himself into this class of player over the course of one offseason? I doubt that these grades come as a surprise to anybody who has seen Cruz play. From a qualitative perspective, he has big power but is only a mediocre hitter, and his speed and fielding have gotten to the point where he should be at DH as much as possible.
I hate to have to discuss this, but because somebody is going to bring it up, I don't believe that steroids have turned Cruz into a completely different player. We know for a fact that he's taken them in the past, and if you check his Fangraphs page, you'll see that he's never hit like this before. In fact, his success on the Rangers is better explained through his hard work and openness to instruction. Out of all the admitted steroid users, none of them ever turned from average to Miguel Cabrera overnight.
It is possible that Cruz has found a way to tap into some more power, though at the age of 34 that's highly unlikely. I can, however, absolutely guarantee you that Cruz didn't suddenly become an 80 hitter. Going from a 50 to an 80 hitter requires an enormous increase in the skills required to hit for average. It just doesn't happen outside of young prospects that are still developing.
Matt Kremnitzer did a nice job of explaining the Orioles' corner outfield problem recently. Even a Nelson Cruz performing at his normal levels would be an upgrade over what the team has been trotting out there, but not as much as you'd think. Cruz gives back a good chunk of his offensive gains as a result of his poor defense. He already has a -5 DRS and -7.6 UZR. His poor DRS adds up to a -0.8 dWAR, which is pretty bad for a full season, let alone seven weeks into it.
It's not like the Orioles don't have their own player who is overperforming. I won't go into the same detail that Matt went into when he wrote about Jimmy Paredes, who has taken over for Cruz this season as the team's primary DH for the most part. He currently has a .394 BABIP and 23.1% HR/FB. Those numbers will certainly regress, but thanks to his work with Robinson Canó during the offseason and changes in his approach, it's possible that his true talent level is better than the 73 wRC+ that ZiPS projected going into this season. However, I'm sure that it's nothing close to his current 155 wRC+.
Regardless, depending on whether you're going by Fangraphs or Baseball-Reference, Cruz has only been approximately half a win to one win better than Paredes so far. The reason why that difference isn't larger is the defense. Although Paredes certainly won't be winning any Gold Glove awards, his defense is a full grade better than Cruz's. It's also worth noting that Paredes is making the league minimum. Cruz, on the other hand, is making $12.5 million this season.
So for those of you out there who are still mad at the Orioles for not signing back Cruz, given all the information that I laid out here, let me ask you: Do you really think that Cruz is going to continue hitting like this for much longer? Would you risk four years and $58 million on an aging slugger to find out? Or would you rather just spend the money elsewhere and take the draft pick instead?
During the first game of the Mariners/Orioles series at Camden Yards, I was perusing my Twitter feed and came across a conversation between Jon Shepherd and Matt Kremnitzer. They were discussing the frustration that O's fans have had over their team's inability to re-sign Nelson Cruz during the offseason. Their frustration with the organization's lack of major acquisitions this past offseason reached a boiling point when Cruz hit a home run off of Miguel González that night. Meanwhile, Orioles' corner outfielders have all been performing at replacement level this season.
It's easy to overreact when you see that one of the best offensive contributors for your team last season is hitting dingers against that very same team this season. With the AL East being as close and competitive as it has been, one could assume that Cruz could've been a difference maker. However, you can't draw such a conclusion six weeks into the season, and you certainly can't draw conclusions on a four-year contract seven weeks into year one.
Contrary to popular belief, trades and free agent signings are to be evaluated when they are announced. Not during, and not after the contract is up, but before the player's first game is even played. In baseball anything can happen, including good results from bad decisions. The only fair, logical way to evaluate acquisitions is to go by the information that you know at the time. Let's take a look at what we knew about Nelson Cruz when the Mariners signed him.
The Mariners are paying $58 million for the age 34-37 seasons of a player who is a slow, poor outfielder, and is likely to age poorly due to his lack of athleticism. He's basically a DH who is a low OBP, high SLG hitter. I won't go into too much detail as to why I didn't like this deal for the Mariners, suffice it to say that their general manager, Jack Zduriencik, keeps paying for power when his team has finished last in the AL in OBP in four of the last five seasons and were second to last in the other.
By being smarter than Zduriencik, the Orioles avoided paying $58 million to an aging slugger and got a compensation pick in the process. That may be of little consolation to Orioles fans right now, but the thing is that Cruz is grossly overperforming and is going to come back down to earth. Remember him doing the same thing last year? Through May 2014, Cruz enjoyed a 27.9% HR/FB ratio and .324 BABIP, which fueled his outstanding .440 wOBA and 19 HR. Seeing how his career rates consisted of a 16.6% HR/FB and .302 BABIP going into that season, it was obviously unsustainable and proved to be so. From June 1 through the rest of the season, those rates dropped to a 15.9% HR/FB and .272 BABIP, resulting in a .331 wOBA and 20 HR. In other words, he turned back into Nelson Cruz. Not that Cruz playing like himself was a bad thing, especially for only $8 million. It was actually one of my favorite signings prior to the 2014 season.
Cruz is currently hitting .341/.398/.688 with 17 HR, which is good for a .458 wOBA and 2.2 WAR. He's leading the AL in AVG, SLG, HR, Total Bases, and wOBA. His OBP is second only to Miguel Cabrera. He's even better than he was at this point last year, and like last year, it's because of even higher and flukier batted ball stats. He currently has a whopping .376 BABIP and 30.9% HR/FB! This is all without any significant changes to his batted ball rates, too. For how much longer is it reasonable to believe that he's going to continue hitting almost one-third of his fly balls over the fence? Cruz is grossly outperforming even his 90th percentile PECOTA projections of a .351 wOBA by 107 points!
About all those home runs -- let's take a look at the pitchers who gave them up to Cruz. The following numbers are the pitchers' ZiPS projections going into this season.
Pitcher
|
Location
|
Handedness
|
HR
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
WAR
|
Collin McHugh
|
at Houston
|
RHP
|
2
|
3.71
|
3.71
|
2.2
|
Miguel González
|
at Baltimore
|
RHP
|
1
|
4.40
|
4.92
|
0.3
|
Brett Anderson
|
at Oakland
|
LHP
|
1
|
3.58
|
3.35
|
0.8
|
Wandy Rodríguez
|
at Texas
|
LHP
|
1
|
4.52
|
4.76
|
-0.1
|
Phil Hughes
|
Minnesota
|
RHP
|
1
|
3.53
|
2.73
|
5.2
|
Dan Otero
|
at Oakland
|
RHP
|
1
|
3.41
|
3.62
|
0.2
|
Tyler Clippard
|
at Oakland
|
RHP
|
1
|
2.88
|
3.44
|
0.5
|
Luke Gregerson
|
at Houston
|
RHP
|
1
|
3.52
|
3.54
|
0.4
|
Matt Shoemaker
|
at Los Angeles
|
RHP
|
1
|
3.42
|
3.49
|
2.4
|
David Huff
|
at Los Angeles
|
LHP
|
1
|
5.04
|
4.94
|
-0.7
|
Brandon McCarthy
|
at Los Angeles
|
RHP
|
2
|
3.83
|
3.46
|
2.3
|
Ross Detwiler
|
Texas
|
LHP
|
2
|
4.33
|
4.30
|
0.4
|
Frank Garces
|
San Diego
|
LHP
|
1
|
3.34
|
3.53
|
0.2
|
Marco Estrada
|
Toronto
|
RHP
|
1
|
4.44
|
4.44
|
0.9
|
There are a few good pitchers in there, but overall it's an underwhelming group.
At the time of the signing, Dan Szymborski, who is also an Orioles fan, tweeted out his disdain for the deal. In the tweet, Szymborski included the ZiPS projections for Cruz's years with the Mariners, assuming he'd be their primary DH. Remember that projections are not predictions. They are a measure of true talent level. Here's an excerpt from that table:
| Year | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | WAR |
| 2015 | .250 | .310 | .457 | 118 | 2.0 |
| 2016 | .247 | .305 | .450 | 114 | 1.5 |
| 2017 | .244 | .297 | .433 | 108 | 0.8 |
| 2018 | .240 | .288 | .411 | 99 | 0.0 |
While I'm not a fan of the generic $/WAR metrics out there because I believe that they're too oversimplified, $58 million and a first round pick for 4.3 WAR is a pretty bad deal. Furthermore, the ZiPS model may be overestimating the number of games that Cruz will play. He's been a bit injury prone in his career, having played over 130 games in a season only twice. Obviously, getting older isn't going to make that any better. Even with his poor defense, he'd still be an upgrade over the poor corner outfielders that the Orioles have been trotting out there, but it'd come at a high price. By the time his contract enters its third year, Cruz is likely to be just as bad as those guys anyway.
OK, those were the numbers, so now let's take a look at the scouting information. Mark Anderson wrote up a scouting report for Baseball Prospectus this past October. I won't go over it in detail, but I will show the scouting grades. For those of you who are unfamiliar, these grades come from the 20-80 scouting scale.
| Tool | Grade |
Hit
|
50
|
Power
|
70
|
Speed
|
40
|
Glove
|
40
|
Arm
|
60
|
Nelson Cruz is currently playing like an 80 hitter with 80 power. Those players are incredibly rare. The only player in today's game who fits that description is Miguel Cabrera. There's only a handful of players who fit that description in the past 20 years: Albert Pujols, Manny Ramírez, Barry Bonds, Frank Thomas, and...that's it. It truly is a uniquely special talent to be able to combine an 80 hit tool with 80 power. Is it really reasonable to believe that Cruz has turned himself into this class of player over the course of one offseason? I doubt that these grades come as a surprise to anybody who has seen Cruz play. From a qualitative perspective, he has big power but is only a mediocre hitter, and his speed and fielding have gotten to the point where he should be at DH as much as possible.
I hate to have to discuss this, but because somebody is going to bring it up, I don't believe that steroids have turned Cruz into a completely different player. We know for a fact that he's taken them in the past, and if you check his Fangraphs page, you'll see that he's never hit like this before. In fact, his success on the Rangers is better explained through his hard work and openness to instruction. Out of all the admitted steroid users, none of them ever turned from average to Miguel Cabrera overnight.
It is possible that Cruz has found a way to tap into some more power, though at the age of 34 that's highly unlikely. I can, however, absolutely guarantee you that Cruz didn't suddenly become an 80 hitter. Going from a 50 to an 80 hitter requires an enormous increase in the skills required to hit for average. It just doesn't happen outside of young prospects that are still developing.
Matt Kremnitzer did a nice job of explaining the Orioles' corner outfield problem recently. Even a Nelson Cruz performing at his normal levels would be an upgrade over what the team has been trotting out there, but not as much as you'd think. Cruz gives back a good chunk of his offensive gains as a result of his poor defense. He already has a -5 DRS and -7.6 UZR. His poor DRS adds up to a -0.8 dWAR, which is pretty bad for a full season, let alone seven weeks into it.
It's not like the Orioles don't have their own player who is overperforming. I won't go into the same detail that Matt went into when he wrote about Jimmy Paredes, who has taken over for Cruz this season as the team's primary DH for the most part. He currently has a .394 BABIP and 23.1% HR/FB. Those numbers will certainly regress, but thanks to his work with Robinson Canó during the offseason and changes in his approach, it's possible that his true talent level is better than the 73 wRC+ that ZiPS projected going into this season. However, I'm sure that it's nothing close to his current 155 wRC+.
Regardless, depending on whether you're going by Fangraphs or Baseball-Reference, Cruz has only been approximately half a win to one win better than Paredes so far. The reason why that difference isn't larger is the defense. Although Paredes certainly won't be winning any Gold Glove awards, his defense is a full grade better than Cruz's. It's also worth noting that Paredes is making the league minimum. Cruz, on the other hand, is making $12.5 million this season.
So for those of you out there who are still mad at the Orioles for not signing back Cruz, given all the information that I laid out here, let me ask you: Do you really think that Cruz is going to continue hitting like this for much longer? Would you risk four years and $58 million on an aging slugger to find out? Or would you rather just spend the money elsewhere and take the draft pick instead?
16 December 2014
Can Colby Rasmus Be the New Nelson Cruz?
Entering the 2013 offseason, the Baltimore Orioles needed an outfielder. After waiting, and waiting, and waiting, they finally struck, signing Nelson Cruz to a one-year, $8 million deal. That obviously worked out very well, as he accrued 3.9 WAR and played a key role in their division title. Although they couldn't re-sign him, the deal was a success.
Entering the 2014 offseason, the Orioles once again needed an outfielder. After waiting, and waiting (albeit not as long as last year), they may soon strike:
Last week, Matt Kremnitzer scrutinized Rasmus as a possible outfield option. I don't want to analyze it from that angle — I want to find the probability of a Cruz-like breakout.
It's important to establish that Rasmus is a very different type of player than Cruz, in many regards: While the latter predicates most of his performance on hitting ability, the former takes a more balanced approach. Rasmus is also much younger (28, to Cruz's 34) and has a more recent history of excellence — a year ago, he accumulated 4.8 WAR in only 458 plate appearances.
With that said, they do share one trait: volatility. Their performance could reasonably vacillate from star- to replacement-level, depending on several factors. Basically, I'd like to make the case for the first extreme out of Rasmus in 2015. It's not as unrealistic as you might think.
OFFENSE
Offensive production generally boils down to three things: walk rate, strikeout rate, batting average on balls in play, and isolated power. In 2013, Rasmus smacked a 129 wRC+ on the power of the latter two, as his .225 ISO and .356 BABIP made up for a 8.1% BB% and 29.5% K%. This year, the clout and free passes stayed the same, but the fans and hits on balls in play took turns for the worse, resulting in offense a mere 3% better than average.
For 2015, Steamer projects an analogous base on balls clip, with which I can't argue; its modest BABIP projection also seems logical, seeing as how Rasmus hits a lot of fly balls (and popups). The strikeout rate should come down to earth as well, mainly because of regression to the mean. But Steamer sees a significant drop in ISO, to .185, meaning his wRC+ will remain at 2014 levels. And I don't really see why this will happen.
Rasmus had a lot of power coming up in the minors — as a 20-year-old, he abused AA pitchers for a .275 ISO in 556 trips to the dish — so the past two seasons weren't unprecedented for him. Moreover, his batted balls support such a rise. According to Baseball Heat Maps, he's hit fly balls an average of 289.4 feet since 2013 began. For comparison, Edwin Encarnacion and Anthony Rizzo had 288-foot marks this year. So, yeah, that's pretty powerful.
If he does keep up the brawn, his wRC+ will stay in the 110-120 range, which represents a 5- to 10-run upgrade over Steamer's projections. Even that. though, won't make him a breakout. No, for that to happen, he'll need improvement on the other side of the ball.
DEFENSE
Fielding is where things get weird. For his career, Rasmus has put up mediocre defense: His career UZR/150 sits at an uninspired -0.6. However, that number comes as the result of a lot of uneven outputs. His UZR/150 has ranged from the very good (13.7 in 2009, 15.2 in 2013), to the average (exactly 0 in 2012), to the very bad (-8.3 in 2010, -10.4 in 2011, and -15.3 in 2014). Indeed, the tale of Rasmus's work in the field deftly illustrates the problem with contemporary defensive metrics.
So what'll happen in 2015? Nothing noteworthy, according to Steamer: It projects him for -5.7 defensive runs per 600 plate appearances. We're not here to focus on that, though — we want to see if he could explode, as he did in 2013.
Let's again look at 2013 and 2014, in which his defense matched his offense (for better or for worse). In that glorious campaign, he made plays on 227 of the 237 balls in his zone, for a revised zone rating of .958. That didn't decrease that much in 2014; at .944, it still easily beat the MLB-wide average of .919 for center fielders.
The routine plays didn't drive the 30-run discrepancy between the campaigns. Rather, he simply had many fewer out-of-zone plays made — 81 in 2013, 48 in 2014. If he receives more opportunities, which can always happen in the crazy world of baseball, he would have more chances to provide value, pumping up his UZR and his WAR.
This comes down to true talent level, and Rasmus's consistently high RZR leads me to believe that he has the ability to field well. That he hasn't done so particularly often probably testifies to his injury woes; assuming they disappear in 2015 (as happened to Cruz, albeit to a lesser extent, in 2014), his defense could take a turn for the better.
Realistically, this could happen. Probably, it won't (hence the projection). Regardless, as a team without much payroll and with a shrinking window for contention, the Orioles need to take risks, and Rasmus certainly has the upside to make a one-year deal pay off.
Baltimore will need some incredible performances in 2015 if it wants to replicate its 2014 division crown. Cruz can't do what he did in 2014, so maybe Rasmus can step in. It's unlikely, but so was Cruz's breakout. You never know.
Entering the 2014 offseason, the Orioles once again needed an outfielder. After waiting, and waiting (albeit not as long as last year), they may soon strike:
Orioles being pushed to take Colby Rasmus on a one year deal
— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) December 14, 2014
Would this pay off? Let's look into it.Last week, Matt Kremnitzer scrutinized Rasmus as a possible outfield option. I don't want to analyze it from that angle — I want to find the probability of a Cruz-like breakout.
It's important to establish that Rasmus is a very different type of player than Cruz, in many regards: While the latter predicates most of his performance on hitting ability, the former takes a more balanced approach. Rasmus is also much younger (28, to Cruz's 34) and has a more recent history of excellence — a year ago, he accumulated 4.8 WAR in only 458 plate appearances.
With that said, they do share one trait: volatility. Their performance could reasonably vacillate from star- to replacement-level, depending on several factors. Basically, I'd like to make the case for the first extreme out of Rasmus in 2015. It's not as unrealistic as you might think.
OFFENSE
Offensive production generally boils down to three things: walk rate, strikeout rate, batting average on balls in play, and isolated power. In 2013, Rasmus smacked a 129 wRC+ on the power of the latter two, as his .225 ISO and .356 BABIP made up for a 8.1% BB% and 29.5% K%. This year, the clout and free passes stayed the same, but the fans and hits on balls in play took turns for the worse, resulting in offense a mere 3% better than average.
For 2015, Steamer projects an analogous base on balls clip, with which I can't argue; its modest BABIP projection also seems logical, seeing as how Rasmus hits a lot of fly balls (and popups). The strikeout rate should come down to earth as well, mainly because of regression to the mean. But Steamer sees a significant drop in ISO, to .185, meaning his wRC+ will remain at 2014 levels. And I don't really see why this will happen.
Rasmus had a lot of power coming up in the minors — as a 20-year-old, he abused AA pitchers for a .275 ISO in 556 trips to the dish — so the past two seasons weren't unprecedented for him. Moreover, his batted balls support such a rise. According to Baseball Heat Maps, he's hit fly balls an average of 289.4 feet since 2013 began. For comparison, Edwin Encarnacion and Anthony Rizzo had 288-foot marks this year. So, yeah, that's pretty powerful.
If he does keep up the brawn, his wRC+ will stay in the 110-120 range, which represents a 5- to 10-run upgrade over Steamer's projections. Even that. though, won't make him a breakout. No, for that to happen, he'll need improvement on the other side of the ball.
DEFENSE
Fielding is where things get weird. For his career, Rasmus has put up mediocre defense: His career UZR/150 sits at an uninspired -0.6. However, that number comes as the result of a lot of uneven outputs. His UZR/150 has ranged from the very good (13.7 in 2009, 15.2 in 2013), to the average (exactly 0 in 2012), to the very bad (-8.3 in 2010, -10.4 in 2011, and -15.3 in 2014). Indeed, the tale of Rasmus's work in the field deftly illustrates the problem with contemporary defensive metrics.
So what'll happen in 2015? Nothing noteworthy, according to Steamer: It projects him for -5.7 defensive runs per 600 plate appearances. We're not here to focus on that, though — we want to see if he could explode, as he did in 2013.
Let's again look at 2013 and 2014, in which his defense matched his offense (for better or for worse). In that glorious campaign, he made plays on 227 of the 237 balls in his zone, for a revised zone rating of .958. That didn't decrease that much in 2014; at .944, it still easily beat the MLB-wide average of .919 for center fielders.
The routine plays didn't drive the 30-run discrepancy between the campaigns. Rather, he simply had many fewer out-of-zone plays made — 81 in 2013, 48 in 2014. If he receives more opportunities, which can always happen in the crazy world of baseball, he would have more chances to provide value, pumping up his UZR and his WAR.
This comes down to true talent level, and Rasmus's consistently high RZR leads me to believe that he has the ability to field well. That he hasn't done so particularly often probably testifies to his injury woes; assuming they disappear in 2015 (as happened to Cruz, albeit to a lesser extent, in 2014), his defense could take a turn for the better.
Realistically, this could happen. Probably, it won't (hence the projection). Regardless, as a team without much payroll and with a shrinking window for contention, the Orioles need to take risks, and Rasmus certainly has the upside to make a one-year deal pay off.
Baltimore will need some incredible performances in 2015 if it wants to replicate its 2014 division crown. Cruz can't do what he did in 2014, so maybe Rasmus can step in. It's unlikely, but so was Cruz's breakout. You never know.
04 December 2014
O's Logically Decide to Let Nick Markakis Walk
Remember in 2011 when the Orioles couldn't find a general manager? Jerry Dipoto didn't want the job. Neither did Tony LaCava. Or Allard Baird. Or DeJon Watson. I'm sure there were others. Dan Duquette was an afterthought, and the whole thing was a circus. But thanks to Duquette and Buck Showalter, the Orioles have averaged about 91 wins the past three seasons and made the playoffs twice.
Duquette is clearly in charge now, and that the Orioles would be willing to let a fan and owner favorite walk speaks to his influence on the direction of the franchise. It's about results, and value, and who can help the Orioles win more games.
A few weeks ago, the Atlanta Braves traded away Jason Heyward. And last night, they inked his replacement:
Early in the process, the Orioles seemed willing to offer Markakis four years. But at some point that changed, and the O's eventually were no longer the favorite to sign Markakis. Roch Kubatko discussed the situation on Tuesday:
So now the Orioles will be without the services of Cruz and Markakis going forward. Predictably, some fans are panicking. To many, it's one thing to lose Cruz, who was fantastic last season but had only been in Baltimore for one season, but it's another to watch Markakis leave. He was drafted by the O's in 2003, made his debut in 2006, and showed flashes of brilliance before settling in as a decent but not great player.
But that's really the key to looking at the loss of Markakis: The Orioles did not lose the 2007 or 2008 versions of Markakis. They lost the current player, who is entering his decline years.
Yesterday, Mike Petriello of FanGraphs attempted to answer a basic question: What are we missing about Nick Markakis? He wanted to see if there was something we had been overlooking about Markakis, and why a few teams were in a bidding war for him. After some terrific analysis, Petriello concluded:
-----
Let's also tackle a couple of other overused and unoriginal thoughts when it comes to the O's front office and free agents. The first is the notion that the Orioles are cheap. Apparently the O's, and especially Peter Angelos, are being cheap by not bringing back Cruz and Markakis. This is also something that gets brought up any time a significant percentage of fans want the O's to spend money on a certain player and it doesn't happen. Remember, there were complaints about the O's being cheap when they shipped Jim Johnson to Oakland.
I want the owners of my favorite teams to spend money. I want them to work to create the best possible team. But the "it's not my money" argument has always been silly, as Jeff Sullivan recently discussed on Twitter:
If the O's don't end up spending a chunk of that money they saved from not inking Cruz and Markakis, then they deserve to be ridiculed. But there's plenty of offseason time left for things to happen. The O's may end up getting creative, but that doesn't mean they won't be spending money.
The second point is that with players like Matt Wieters and Chris Davis entering their final year of arbitration, the O's aren't taking their position of being in win-now mode seriously. To that, I say, we have different ideas of what it takes to win now. If the Orioles really wanted to win now and money was no issue, they'd target the top free agents. We advocated for doing that last year, to go along with a very strong core of established players.
How much better would the Orioles have been with Robinson Cano at second base? Jacoby Ellsbury in the outfield? Masahiro Tanaka in the starting rotation? We'll never know. Signing Jimenez was viewed as a win-now move, and he currently has the worst contract on the team. Would it have been worth weighing down the chances of future O's teams to bring back, on four-year deals, two players on the downside of their careers? Maybe some would have taken that chance, but I don't agree with it. The Orioles are not the Dodgers or Yankees; they don't have seemingly endless money to spend. They will spend money, but signing someone like Jimenez hurts them more than a team like the Yankees. It's not surprising that the O's have at least been trying to free themselves of Jimenez and the remaining three years on his deal.
It's not a bad strategy to refuse to overpay for a player, even if it doesn't look great in the short term. And considering the team's current core and the low-risk, high-reward moves that Duquette and Showalter have been able to cook up, I'm not sure I'd count the O's out of anything just yet.
It's going to be strange to watch Markakis play in a different jersey. He was a bright spot on several awful Orioles teams. We wish him well.
Photo via Keith Allison
Duquette is clearly in charge now, and that the Orioles would be willing to let a fan and owner favorite walk speaks to his influence on the direction of the franchise. It's about results, and value, and who can help the Orioles win more games.
A few weeks ago, the Atlanta Braves traded away Jason Heyward. And last night, they inked his replacement:
Source: OF Nick Markakis agrees to four-year deal with Atlanta Braves. Dollars unclear, but sides discussed a deal in neighborhood of $44M.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 3, 2014
Nick Markakis wanted a four-year deal, and he got it. The Orioles seem to have underestimated Markakis's popularity on the open market. I'm sure they wish they could go back and extend him the qualifying offer. Not only would that have limited some teams' interest in signing him, but it would have netted the O's another draft pick (after Nelson Cruz left) if he still decided to leave.Early in the process, the Orioles seemed willing to offer Markakis four years. But at some point that changed, and the O's eventually were no longer the favorite to sign Markakis. Roch Kubatko discussed the situation on Tuesday:
The Orioles and Markakis' agent, Jamie Murphy, were working on a four-year deal, but talks stalled and there's been limited contact beyond the general managers' meetings last month in Phoenix. Duquette stated earlier today that the Orioles are "still in discussions with Nick." He wouldn't place odds on a deal getting done.
According to multiple sources, the Orioles are trying to iron out any misgivings they may have concerning the length of the contract. Though Markakis played in 155 games this season, they're doing a thorough check on him physically and may be more comfortable offering three years.Ken Rosenthal also mentioned last night that health reasons may have been what scared the O's away from offering that fourth year. That's nothing new for the Orioles. Just ask Grant Balfour. Perhaps it's a frustrating way of conducting business, but it sure seems as if the Orioles are interested in being as thorough as possible before handing out millions of dollars.
So now the Orioles will be without the services of Cruz and Markakis going forward. Predictably, some fans are panicking. To many, it's one thing to lose Cruz, who was fantastic last season but had only been in Baltimore for one season, but it's another to watch Markakis leave. He was drafted by the O's in 2003, made his debut in 2006, and showed flashes of brilliance before settling in as a decent but not great player.But that's really the key to looking at the loss of Markakis: The Orioles did not lose the 2007 or 2008 versions of Markakis. They lost the current player, who is entering his decline years.
Yesterday, Mike Petriello of FanGraphs attempted to answer a basic question: What are we missing about Nick Markakis? He wanted to see if there was something we had been overlooking about Markakis, and why a few teams were in a bidding war for him. After some terrific analysis, Petriello concluded:
Let’s say you disagree with Markakis’ defensive ratings, that you prefer to think of him as a 2 WAR player, which isn’t unfair. That’s a league-average player. Markakis seems like a league-average player. . . . Markakis is a steady player, nothing more, with little upside remaining and age squarely against him, one who could look worse outside of Camden depending on where he winds up. Some team is going to pay heavily for that. Some team is going to regret doing so.That's not exactly a glowing review. And, more or less, it reflects much of the analysis of Markakis over the years from various Camden Depot writers. When many fans look at Markakis, they see that 2008 player; they cherish that homegrown talent. They expect line drives all over the field, a rifle arm, and a right fielder who rarely makes an error. He does still possess those qualities, to some degree, but they don't add up to the level of player you would expect.
-----
Let's also tackle a couple of other overused and unoriginal thoughts when it comes to the O's front office and free agents. The first is the notion that the Orioles are cheap. Apparently the O's, and especially Peter Angelos, are being cheap by not bringing back Cruz and Markakis. This is also something that gets brought up any time a significant percentage of fans want the O's to spend money on a certain player and it doesn't happen. Remember, there were complaints about the O's being cheap when they shipped Jim Johnson to Oakland.
I want the owners of my favorite teams to spend money. I want them to work to create the best possible team. But the "it's not my money" argument has always been silly, as Jeff Sullivan recently discussed on Twitter:
it's *someone's* money, and the less money that someone has available, the less they can afford to make your sports team better than it is
— Jeff Sullivan (@based_ball) December 2, 2014
And, of course, spending the most money does not equal guaranteed success. It's also foolish to suggest the Orioles aren't spending much money on players. A couple years ago, Adam Jones signed a six-year, $85.5 million contract -- the largest in Orioles' history. Does that not count? They spent $50 million to bring in Ubaldo Jimenez (oops!) last offseason. They recently re-signed J.J. Hardy. Markakis previously had a lucrative contract. Last year, the O's were 15th in the majors in team payroll. They were near teams in similar market sizes. And with arbitration raises and plenty of freed-up money left to spend in free agency or on players acquired via potential trades, the O's could certainly move a few spots ahead.If the O's don't end up spending a chunk of that money they saved from not inking Cruz and Markakis, then they deserve to be ridiculed. But there's plenty of offseason time left for things to happen. The O's may end up getting creative, but that doesn't mean they won't be spending money.
The second point is that with players like Matt Wieters and Chris Davis entering their final year of arbitration, the O's aren't taking their position of being in win-now mode seriously. To that, I say, we have different ideas of what it takes to win now. If the Orioles really wanted to win now and money was no issue, they'd target the top free agents. We advocated for doing that last year, to go along with a very strong core of established players.
How much better would the Orioles have been with Robinson Cano at second base? Jacoby Ellsbury in the outfield? Masahiro Tanaka in the starting rotation? We'll never know. Signing Jimenez was viewed as a win-now move, and he currently has the worst contract on the team. Would it have been worth weighing down the chances of future O's teams to bring back, on four-year deals, two players on the downside of their careers? Maybe some would have taken that chance, but I don't agree with it. The Orioles are not the Dodgers or Yankees; they don't have seemingly endless money to spend. They will spend money, but signing someone like Jimenez hurts them more than a team like the Yankees. It's not surprising that the O's have at least been trying to free themselves of Jimenez and the remaining three years on his deal.
It's not a bad strategy to refuse to overpay for a player, even if it doesn't look great in the short term. And considering the team's current core and the low-risk, high-reward moves that Duquette and Showalter have been able to cook up, I'm not sure I'd count the O's out of anything just yet.
It's going to be strange to watch Markakis play in a different jersey. He was a bright spot on several awful Orioles teams. We wish him well.
Photo via Keith Allison
02 December 2014
O's Corner Outfield Situation Up in the Air
Over the last few months at Camden Depot, we've had plenty of discussions about free agents Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis. We've been preparing for the eventual departure of Cruz, since the Orioles seemed reluctant to offer him a four-year contract, which he desperately wanted. And yesterday, the Mariners agreed to a four-year, $57 million deal with Cruz (pending a physical, of course).
It's not surprising that Cruz took the best offer available. And while it doesn't seem like the Mariners signed Cruz to a terrible contract, it is certainly risky enough and is a deal the Orioles didn't feel comfortable offering. It's also odd that the Mariners ownership apparently torpedoed a reasonable deal for Cruz last offseason, but now they are all on board with a four-year deal because Cruz had a monster 2014?
The Orioles were very good last season, and Cruz was a big part of that. But their stance all along had been a maximum length of three years for Cruz; they stuck with it. That type of logical restraint, which seemingly removed the emotional high of last year's playoff run from the equation, is something many fans have wanted from the Orioles' front office for a long time. It's never fun to lose a popular, talented player, but it's even less fun to cheer for a losing team that is anchored down by an expensive, aging ballplayer. The key is to explore every avenue, which Dan Duquette appears to be doing. And again, they did want Cruz back, but they were willing to keep that desire in check.
Nelson Cruz will be 34 next year. In 2014, just three 34-year-olds were worth at least 1.5 bWAR (Pujols, Holliday, LaRoche).
— Joe Sheehan (@joe_sheehan) December 1, 2014
The O's were unwilling to offer Nate McLouth a two-year deal last year, so they let him walk. They weren't willing to pay a closer, Jim Johnson, $10 million in his last year of arbitration. They've been fortunate with many of these moves, though the Ubaldo Jimenez contract certainly sticks out right now as one they wish they could have back. But they have been able to establish guidelines about the amount of risk they are able to shoulder. That stance is not always popular with fans who become attached to certain players.That strategy is going to be tested with Markakis. Like with Cruz, we've provided lots of analysis lately on if the O's should re-sign Markakis and what they should do if he departs, but I doubt most fans actually believe he would leave Baltimore. But after the latest report from The Baltimore Sun's Dan Connolly, Markakis leaving finally seems like a real possibility. According to Connolly:
Although the specific holdup is not known, there has been some talk within the Orioles organization that the club is no longer comfortable with a four-year deal for Markakis. If that’s the case it would explain why the negotiations have halted, since it is believed the sides had agreed to the length of the contract early on in discussions.A four-year contract again seems to be a sticking point, though that's more surprising considering Markakis recently turned 31, while Cruz is 34. But it's not unreasonable thinking, either, with some analysts like Keith Law recently wondering how good Markakis really is.
I'll admit that it would hurt a bit to see Markakis in a Blue Jays or Yankees uniform. It was strange to see Brian Roberts donning the pinstripes last season. But he wasn't all that good; then he was gone. It would be hard to get used to Markakis wearing another team's jersey, but it would be even tougher if he manages to play well for a few years. That's the gamble, and it's what makes the allure of free agency hard to resist.
Still, this approach to free agency is not about being cheap, which some can't help but bring up any time the Orioles and money are discussed. It's amusing to go back and read Peter Schmuck's column last year on how Peter Angelos and his minions were behind the Johnson-to-Oakland trade last year, as if that was some gross injustice instead of a smart baseball decision. If anything, Angelos, who apparently loves Markakis, would want to bring him back at nearly any price. That Markakis's exit seems possible should strengthen O's fans' trust that Duquette is running the show and focused on building a consistent winner. Duquette is far from a perfect general manager, if one even exists, but he does seem to have an overall game plan every offseason, and it's hard to argue against the team's success these past few years.
If you're looking for more on what the O's should do without Cruz and potentially Markakis, here's some Depot coverage from the last month-plus:
On Nick Markakis and Why the Orioles Should Pick Up His Option
Why Alejandro De Aza Will Be More Valuable Than Nelson Cruz in 2015
Why the Orioles Don't Need Nick Markakis
Davis Could Provide Cruz-like Production in 2015
Is Nick Markakis an Everyday Player?
Orioles Trade Target: Michael Saunders
The 2015 Orioles Outfield Will Be Fine Without Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis
Should Melky Cabrera Be the O's 'Fallback Option'?
Are the Orioles a Fit for Matt Kemp?
Photo via Keith Allison
26 November 2014
Should Melky Cabrera Be the O's 'Fallback Option'?
The possibility of Melky Cabrera as a "fallback option" for the Orioles does not seem overly enticing. Well, why is that?
Cabrera, 30, is a corner outfielder with a career wRC+ of 102. He was a relatively light hitter until 2011, when he posted a 118 wRC+ for the Royals. Until then, he had yet to produce a season with a wRC+ above 98.
After being traded from the Yankees to the Braves, Cabrera put up a 77 wRC+ in 147 games in 2010, while playing pretty bad defense as well. The Braves then released him, and he was picked up by the Royals. Cabrera had a strong 2011, as noted above, but was shipped to the Giants in exchange for Jonathan Sanchez. Cabrera went on to post even better numbers in 2012 -- a fantastic 151 wRC+ in 113 games -- and then was suspended 50 games for testing positive for testosterone. As a free agent, he signed a two-year deal with the Blue Jays -- his fourth team in four years. In an injury-prone 2013, he was awful (86 wRC+ in 88 games), but in a healthier 2014, he rebounded with a 125 wRC+ in 139 games.
| Year | Age | Tm | G | PA | HR | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 20 | NYY | 6 | 19 | 0 | .211 | .211 | .211 | .421 | 14 |
| 2006 | 21 | NYY | 130 | 524 | 7 | .280 | .360 | .391 | .752 | 95 |
| 2007 | 22 | NYY | 150 | 612 | 8 | .273 | .327 | .391 | .718 | 88 |
| 2008 | 23 | NYY | 129 | 453 | 8 | .249 | .301 | .341 | .641 | 68 |
| 2009 | 24 | NYY | 154 | 540 | 13 | .274 | .336 | .416 | .752 | 93 |
| 2010 | 25 | ATL | 147 | 509 | 4 | .255 | .317 | .354 | .671 | 83 |
| 2011 | 26 | KCR | 155 | 706 | 18 | .305 | .339 | .470 | .809 | 121 |
| 2012 ★ | 27 | SFG | 113 | 501 | 11 | .346 | .390 | .516 | .906 | 157 |
| 2013 | 28 | TOR | 88 | 372 | 3 | .279 | .322 | .360 | .682 | 88 |
| 2014 | 29 | TOR | 139 | 621 | 16 | .301 | .351 | .458 | .808 | 126 |
| 10 Yrs | 1211 | 4857 | 88 | .286 | .339 | .415 | .754 | 103 | ||
Since 2006, Cabrera has played in at least 88 games every season. In those nine years, he's posted an fWAR below zero twice. He has had one 0 fWAR season. He also has seasons with fWARs of 0.5, 1.4, and 1.6. And the other three? 2.6, 3.7, and 4.5. The latter three fWAR seasons came within the last four years -- 2014, 2011, and 2012, respectively -- with a -0.9 fWAR 2013 sandwiched between.
Cabrera is a much improved hitter from when he was younger, but he doesn't bring many other skills to the table. By Ultimate Zone Rating, he's a -13.3 defender in left field in more than 4,500 innings. He also has a -24.9 UZR in more than 4,500 innings in center field and has been about average (-0.3) in 625 innings in right field. Per Defensive Runs Saved, Cabrera is average (0) in right field, -20 in center field, but is +9 in left. However, in 2006 and 2007, he was a combined +20 defender in left (in New York), but hasn't had a DRS above +1 since -- and has been a negative defender the last three seasons. Also, on the basepaths, he hasn't been above average for a couple seasons.
Cabrera declined the Blue Jays' qualifying offer, so signing him will require the O's to forfeit their first-round draft pick. As the O's showed last year, it makes more sense to sign multiple restricted free agents in a single year than, say, to sign one every season. Would the O's be willing to sign Cabrera and another free agent who declined the qualifying offer? That might be a lot to ask. Then again, if Nelson Cruz signs with another team, the O's will receive a compensation pick. That might soften the blow of signing someone like Cabrera. Or maybe the O's could sign Cabrera if Nick Markakis walks and then re-sign Cruz (though they'd still lose a draft pick because they didn't extend Markakis a qualifying offer).
If you believe in Cabrera's bat and don't have significant worries about his health, you'd likely endorse signing him. The 2012 suspension may be a minor concern, but as O's fans just demonstrated with Cruz, the only thing that really matters to a fan base is whether a player performs and helps a team win. Even with the ongoing circus, you don't think Yankees fans would cheer Alex Rodriguez if he manages to play well? But, unlike Cruz last season, whatever team signs Cabrera will be handing him a multiyear deal. That means more money and more risk.
The reaction to the deal Cabrera ends up signing should be fascinating. MLB Trade Rumors predicts that he'll receive a five-year deal around $66 million. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs thinks Cabrera will get a deal for three years and $39 million (and wouldn't be a fan of it). Perhaps those two are both a year off, and Cabrera will get four years.
If it comes down to four years for Cabrera or Markakis, I'd lean towards Markakis. I also feel better about Cruz despite the age difference, though giving him four years would be pushing it. But these three players shouldn't be the team's only options. Maybe the Orioles should go in a different direction.
Photo via Keith Allison
20 November 2014
The 2015 Orioles Outfield Will Be Fine Without Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis
Photo by Keith Allison
Two key members of the Orioles' 2014 outfield, Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis, are free agents. Cruz, as expected, rejected the club's qualifying offer, which means the Orioles will get a draft pick as compensation if he signs with another club. The club declined Markakis' mutual option and did not extend him a qualifying offer, so there is no compensation if he signs elsewhere.
Many people still think the Orioles are the favorite for Cruz, and he has made it clear that his first choice is to return to Baltimore. While most people around the team still expect Markakis to return to the club, that outcome seems less likely than it did a week ago.
Losing both of these players would mean a loss of 6.4 fWAR from the Orioles outfield (For the sake of simplicity, I'm considering Cruz, Jones, Markakis, and Lough the Orioles 2014 OF. Yes, Cruz did DH. And Pearce played some OF, but Lough played a lot more innings in the OF than him). This is obviously a noticeable loss and it would be understandable to start scouring the list of free agents and potential trade candidates to replace this loss of production. Here and elsewhere, the name Nori Aoki has been thrown around as a possible replacement.
But, the Orioles outfield will be perfectly fine in 2015 as it stands right now. This isn't to say that they won't or shouldn't make any moves, but there's no need to panic if they don't.
Player
|
‘14 wRC+
|
Player
|
‘15 Projected wRC+
|
Jones
|
117
|
Jones
|
115
|
Cruz
|
137
|
Pearce
|
129
|
Markakis
|
106
|
De Aza
|
104
|
Lough
|
95
|
Lough
|
92
|
wRC+ weighted by PA
|
118
|
wRC+ weighted by PA
|
113
|
While the loss of both Cruz and Markakis feels significant, the drop in offensive production would not be too significant. The Orioles outfield was 18% above league average last season, offensively speaking. In 2015, they are projected to be 13% above average,
The main issue would be the fact that De Aza and Lough both struggle against LHP, but the impact of this could be softened by bringing in a Delmon Young-type player for some AB's against LHP. Those concerned that Pearce will fall harder back to earth than projected raise a fair point, but a spot in the everyday lineup is his to lose entering 2015.
And this says nothing of the defensive improvements this potential 2015 outfield could bring. The positive impact of giving Lough more innings in the outfield has been touched on here before. Swapping out Markakis (career -0.6 UZR/150) for De Aza (3.6) would also provide an upgrade defensively. On top of that, Pearce is an adequate outfielder (career +5.0 UZR/150), while Cruz (+ 2.9) has okay numbers, but he's 34 and not getting any more agile. On top of that, Cruz sure looked a lot worse than +2.9 UZR/150 outfielder last season.
It's still entirely possible that the Orioles will bring back both Cruz and Markakis. If both players leave, I'd expect the team to do something to address the outfield position through trade or free agency. But the need to do so isn't urgent and there's no reason to panic if they enter 2015 with the outfield currently on the roster.
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