Contributions From The Orioles' Non-Prospects

Game Day Employee - The [Norfolk] Tides' offense has just been terrible for the last three weeks. What's gone wrong?

Me: Their offense was never their strength to begin with, and Harbor Park depresses their offense. The real problem, though, is that when Parmelee got hurt, and Reimold, Urrutia, and Alvarez got promoted, there wasn't a good player to promote. That's partly because the Orioles have a terrible farm system, so there isn't any depth to promote from.

Press Box Visitor - How can the Orioles have a terrible farm system when their AAA and AA teams are leading their divisions and going to make the playoffs?

Tides Staffer, diplomatically - Well, I wouldn't say the farm system is terrible - the Orioles promote lots of players to help the big league team. Yeah, it is short in prospects, but it is functioning.

That is a paraphrase of a conversation that occurred in the press box before the last 2015 Norfolk Tides' home game. The Tides, who at one point had a six-and-a-half game lead in their division, staggered into the International League playoffs by losing 13 of their last 19 games. In this article, I do not intend to review the Tides' season, or to evaluate the Orioles farm system. Rather, I will explore the possibility that the Orioles' farm system is underrated because, while it may lack star-quality prospects, it's doing the job the Orioles need - providing players to fill holes on the major-league roster.

Commentators on and evaluators of minor-league organizations have emphasized the role of developing young talent into major-league stars. They rate farm systems by the amount and quality of its potential "impact players". In my opinion, these evaluations overemphasize young "lottery tickets" in the low minor league and under-emphasize higher-floor, lower-ceiling players - but that's another article. But a minor-league organization does have another role - to provide immediate help to the major-league team when needed. A seventeen-year-old in the Dominican Summer League may eventually become a Hall-of-Fame-quality player, but if your team needs a left fielder right now, that DSL rookie won't help.

The Orioles' farm system in 2015, and for the past few years, has primarily focused on having players available to fill immediate major-league needs. They have signed many 25-to-29-year old minor league free agents, many with major league experience, to free-agent contracts and assigned them to AAA Norfolk and AA Bowie, with the idea that they will be promoted to Baltimore if they play well and if the Orioles need them. The Tides' and Baysox' 2015 success is due, in large part, because the Orioles signed many of the best minor-league free agents. The Orioles called upon some of these minor league veterans to fill in when needed because an existing major-leaguer was tired, injured, or ineffective. If these veterans did the job, then it could be argued that the Orioles' minor-league system has been underrated. So, how much did the 2015 Orioles get from the players in their minor-league system whom the experts did not include when making their evaluations?

I will look at the 2015 Orioles to identify the players who (1) were on an Orioles' minor-league team at the start of 2015; (2) were promoted to the major-league team during the season; and (3) were not listed on the depth chart of prospects in the Baseball America 2015 Prospect Handbook. I believe that players not even listed on the organizational depth chart are not considered when BA evaluates farm systems. It is these players whose contributions were not, and possibly should have been, included in farm system evaluations.

The tables below include the position players (top) and pitchers (bottom) who meet the above qualifications. The data is through September 20:

Name	PA	Slash	OPS+
Nolan Reimold	155	.248/.335/.401	100
Chris Parmelee	102	.216/.255/.433	83
Steve Clevenger	79	.303/.329/.434	106
Rey Navarro	30	.276/.276/.448	93
Paul Janish	21	.250/.238/.300	46

Name	IP	ERA+
Chaz Roe	41	111
Oliver Drake	12 2/3	119
Steve Johnson	4	50
Cesar Cabral	1	---

The Orioles have gotten quite a bit out of the non-prospects in their system. Nolan Reimold has played about as much in left field as any other 2015 Oriole, and at least offensively has been the best of the bunch. (Other than Reimold and Chris Davis, the best OPS+ of anyone who has played corner outfield for even one inning for the 2015 Orioles is 90.) Steve Clevenger has been a productive bat as a third catcher and part-time DH. Chaz Roe has pitched very well in middle relief. Oliver Drake has pitched a few effective innings. There's at least a prima facie case that the Orioles farm system was better than the experts thought, because there were productive players not accounted for.

To determine whether or not the Orioles' farm system should be rated more highly relative to other teams because of Reimold, Roe, and Clevenger, we'd have to identify contributions to other teams by"non-prospects". We can say that, given that the Orioles didn't have a lot of young prospects to provide immediate help, they adapted and used their farm system efficiently. And it's possible that immediately-useful players like Chaz Roe and Nolan Reimold make their farm system better than rated by the evaluators.

But we also have to be reasonable. While Reimold and Roe have been useful to the 2015 Orioles, they're not likely to become key, long-term contributors. It's unlikely that the contributions of Reimold and Roe, when added to the Orioles' traditional prospects, will drastically change how we look at their system.

Three Under the Radar Free Agents the Orioles Should Pursue

As usual, the Orioles aren't expected to be in the running for the highest priced free agents available. They weren't in the running for Pablo Sandoval or Hanley Ramirez and they won't be pursuing Max Scherzer or Jon Lester. They could still bring back Nick Markakis or Nelson Cruz. They've also been mentioned as candidates to land Melky Cabrera or Nori Aoki.

But what is almost certain, based off of Dan Duquette's track record, is that he will bring in under the radar players in need of another chance, who other teams may be unwilling to take a shot on. Here's 3 players the Orioles should consider.

Photo by Keith Allison

Luke Hochevar

Hochevar missed the entire 2014 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in March. The #1 overall pick by the Royals in 2006, Hochevar struggled in his 128 starts between 2007-12. In 2013, the Royals converted him to a reliever and he thrived. His 10.49 K/9 ranked 24th among 135 qualifying relievers. He also posted a 1.92/2.96 ERA/FIP.

Steamers projects Hochevar to put up 9.41 K/9 and 2.91/3.12 ERA/FIP in 2015. He earned $5 million last season, but since he's been converted to a reliever and is coming off of Tommy John, it won't take nearly that to sign him. He would be a nice compliment to a strong Orioles bullpen that doesn't strike enough batters out.

Nolan Reimold

Despite the fact that he was let go by the team during the 2014 season, Reimold is the exact type of player Duquette would bring in. I can't imagine too many teams are lining up to give Reimold a spot on their 40-man roster, so a minor league deal with an invite to the big league camp (like Delmon Young last season) might be enough to bring Reimold aboard. While Reimold doesn't excel against LHP, the fact that he hits right-handed could prove to be an asset to a club that's 2015 OF will potentially feature left-handed hitters David Lough and Alejandro De Aza. 

The Steamers projections aren't pretty, as they have Reimold as a 76 wRC+ player next season. But if he is healthy, he could very well out-produce those projections. This would be a low-risk, depth move, so I can't really see any reason for the club not to pursue Reimold. I'd rather the Orioles hand Reimold a one year deal than give Cruz or Markakis a 4 year deal.

Jim Johnson

I would expect plenty of teams to be interested in buying low on Johnson. His history in Baltimore could prove to be a deciding factor, depending on how he feels about his time in and departure from the team. If he's open to a return, the club should pursue it. While he may never have another 50 save season, Johnson is due for a bounce back. His .366 BABIP in 2014 is way out of whack with his career. 297. His FIP of 5.08 wasn't pretty, but it suggests he was a good bit better than his 7.09 ERA. 

Johnson may be a little redundant in an Orioles bullpen that features plenty of RHP, as well as a lot of guys who don't get a lot of strikeouts. But, bringing him in gives the team added depth and flexibility, which we all know is something Duquette and Buck Showalter cherish. 

While none of these moves are going to move the fan excitement needle much, and in fact might bring some criticism, these are the exact kind of signings Duquette has shown a knack for since coming to Baltimore. All of these guys give the Orioles more depth, as well as a potential bargain, as players such as Nate McLouth and Delmon Young have previously. 

The Illusion of a Competitive Spring: Orioles' Left Field and DH

When I was six, I decided to make my own GI Joe figures.  I did this in a way similar to how the first Porches were reconfigured Volkswagons.  I dismantled pre-existing products and then recombined them.  This was a learning experience for me in that I was never really aware that the items that fall under the screw category are actually quite diverse.  To that end, a screwdriver is a tool that likely cannot actually be used with every kind of screw.  The simple terms for the tools are generic.  In a grand sense, it often means little to provide more specificity than that, but at other times it is actually quite important.  So, here I am in my bedroom trying my best to unscrew the Phillips raised counter sink crew with the flathead screwdriver of not exactly the right size I took from my father's toolbox.  It was not exactly a successful venture.  After an hour, I decided that it was pointless to continue with this screwdriver, so I snuck back and switched the flathead screw driver with an appropriately sized Phillips.  I then made about two dozen of the most amazing GI Joes ever.  Or, at least, that is what I remember.

Anyway, why am I telling you this story?  To say that the graphic above contains 21 screws is essentially like saying the Orioles will have 13 or so outfielders in camp* or, if you prefer, 11 left fielders in camp.  It may well be an accurate statement, but it rather betrays the functionality of those pieces.  In a perhaps way too obvious statement, Adam Jones and Jack Cust are not the same in any way.  Therefore, if you wish to discuss the glut of outfielders on the Spring Training invite list then we probably would need to be a bit more specific about what roles are available and what players can actually perform in those capacities.

* - At the time of this writing, no official decisions has been made on either Tyler Colvin or Jack Cust.  However, they are including in this discussion as it makes sense to include them when discussing player specificity.

Positions to be filled
The main positions to consider among this group are: left field, center field, right field, backup outfielder, right handed designated hitter, and left handed designated hitter.  Of those positions, center field and right field are spoken for by Adam Jones and Nick Markakis, respectively.  From this point onward, we will not consider those players or positions for that are irrefutably locks on this roster and how it will be utilized.  Below is a matrix identifying the invited players and where their skills may apply.

	LF	LF/CF	RH DH	LH DH
Quintin Berry	*	X		*
Julio Borbon	*	X		*
Tyler Colvin 1	X	X		X
Jack Cust				X
David Lough	X	X		*
Xavier Paul	X			X
Steve Pearce 0	X		X
Francisco Peguero 0	X	X	*
Nolan Reimold 0	X		X
Henry Urrutia 2	*			X
Delmon Young			X

The above matrix illustrates a variety of fascinating competitions for roster slots among fringe meaningful MLB players.  Each of the above has a tool or two that have at one time or another been dreamed upon in making the player useful to any first division team.  That they are all coming to camp as bubble 40 man roster guys and Spring Training invites shows the trouble they have had in fulfilling those front offices dreams and wishes.  This tangled mass of fringe baseball players probably includes one or two or maybe even three players who, when used in the right manner, would be a boon to a team with playoff aspirations.

However, recognizing lightning in a bottle is something that is done much better in hindsight than in real time.  Many in the stands as well as some in the field believe Spring Training is how one discerns differences in future performance among several similarly talented players.  That simply is not true.  I am not saying these at bats are meaningless, but they are affected by small sample sizes, variation in motivations behind defensive alignments/pitching/effort, and facing a wide range of talent on the mound.  Even statisticians delude themselves with wanting to make the numbers meaningful.  Last year for Baseball Prospectus, I dove into the problems with the Dewan Rule which states that exceptional power performance in Spring Training indicate power performance increases during the regular season.  Simply put, Spring Training is gut time and gut time is a time in which choices between options of very similar value is pretty much a coin flip.

What does that mean?  It means that what we have is more likely the illusion of a competitive Spring Training as opposed to real competition.  The team should know the players at this moment as well as they will know them at the end of camp.  Decisions are pretty much made at this point.  They can change based on player attitude, conditioning, and even a complete loss in performance.  That said, the team probably should ignore any remarkable performances.  To beat that point further home, be sure to read this take down of the useless Dewan Rule.  With that in mind, we will take each of the roles that need filling on the team and which players best fulfill them based on what we already know.

Left Field

When it comes to physically being able to play left field in a manner that is competent at the Major League level.  We can immediately dismiss both Jack Cust and Delmon Young.  They simply are bat only players.  Sure, you may have then stand out in left field in a pinch, but they do not have the ability to play out there and still be a net positive player.  The negative impact of the glove will overwhelm the value in the bat.

That leaves nine candidates to fill the left field position.  I rank them as following:

1	David Lough	L
2	Tyler Colvin	L
3	Nolan Reimold	R
	Steve Pearce	R
	Francisco Peguero	R
4	Henry Urrutia	L
5	Julio Borbon	L
	Xavier Paul	L
	Quintin Berry	L

When Dan Duquette made the Lough for Danny Valencia deal with the Kansas City Royals, several thought that he swindled them into handing over a starting corner outfielder in exchange for a limited designated hitter.  Much of that sentiment was based on Lough putting up a 2.7 bWAR in less than 100 games.  However, we should probably temper our expectations greatly if we think that performance is repeatable because so much of it is dependent on fielding.  Fielding metrics tend to require a couple years worth of data to say anything substantial about a player.

Consider the following table which contains all outfield rookies ages 26 and older who had at least a 1.0 dWAR.

Player	WAR/pos	dWAR	Year	Age	Tm	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
F.P. Santangelo (RoY-4th)	3.3	1.3	1996	28	MON	49	61	.277	.369	.407
Wayne Kirby (RoY-4th)	3.2	1.5	1993	29	CLE	37	58	.269	.323	.371
David Lough	2.7	1.4	2013	27	KCR	10	52	.286	.311	.413
Brian Bogusevic	2.0	1.0	2011	27	HOU	15	40	.287	.348	.457
Gary Pettis	1.9	1.0	1984	26	CAL	60	115	.227	.332	.300
Tony Barron	1.8	1.0	1997	30	PHI	12	38	.286	.330	.423
Brandon Barnes	1.7	1.1	2013	27	HOU	21	127	.240	.289	.346
Terry Jones	1.6	1.8	1998	27	MON	21	46	.217	.288	.283
Juan Perez	1.1	1.1	2013	26	SFG	6	21	.258	.302	.348
Bobby Mitchell	1.1	1.1	1982	27	MIN	54	53	.249	.331	.313
Jim Holt	0.8	1.1	1970	26	MIN	17	32	.266	.300	.342
Logan Schafer	0.7	1.0	2013	26	MIL	25	60	.211	.279	.322

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 1/17/2014.

Lough ranks as one of the better players in this population, but it is not a promising collection of players.  Of those players, only Gary Pettis continued to provide starting caliber value.  In other words, older rookies who have breakout years with much depending on defense tend to be one season flukes.  Lough should start out there with his defense providing some measure of worth, but if his bat collapses then Colvin and others will be given opportunities.

Colvin plays defense well and has plus power.  Those things he does well though are mitigated by his extreme split (.333 wOBA vs RHP, .278 wOBA vs LHP) and has been ineffective in half of his seasons (last year his wRC+ was 6 with 100 being considered average).  Nolan Reimold is a darkhorse whom we have long held a belief in here at the Depot due to his plus plus power, good understanding of the strikezone, and a strong arm.  It is a concern that he has been out of baseball for a couple seasons with a neck injury and that his record of performance has been incredibly uneven when healthy. Bat only left fielders (i.e., Pearce, Urrutia, Paul) and glove only left fielders (i.e., Peguero, Borbon, Berry) are probably too limited to be trusted in a full left field role if this team desires to make the playoffs.  As is, they are in enough trouble with Lough and/or Colvin out there.

Left Field / Center Field

In a backup role with the team, the Orioles can go two ways.  One, they could keep a fourth outfielder who is able to cover in center for Adam Jones.  Or, two, they can do what they did at times last year and have their left fielder cover for Jones.  McLouth occasionally covered in center, but has obviously not been capable of defending that position for years.  Lough and Colvin would be able to take care of that role better.

Here we consider five players:

1	David Lough	L
2	Tyler Colvin	L
3	Francisco Peguero	R
	Julio Borbon	L
5	Quintin Berry	L

This grouping can be divided into well rounded players (i.e. Lough, Colvin, Peguero) and defensive players (i.e., Borbon, Berry).  For the reasons mentioned before, Lough and Colvin lead this group.  Peguero slides in with Borbon as our next option.  He still shows good speed after a tough knee injury a few years back.  That speed can cover up a lot of mistakes in the field, but Peguero needs to improve on the route running that is ideal to play center.  Offensively, he has always shown good contact and promising power in batting practice that has not exactly carried over into the field.  His speed also has been mitigated in the basepaths as he has climbed up the ranks.

Year	Age	Tm	Lev	PA	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2006	18	Giants	FRk	196	10	3	4	3	2	6	37	.275	.307	.429
2007	19	Giants	FRk	258	12	2	1	25	5	15	39	.294	.341	.374
2008	20	2 Teams	A--A	414	13	8	4	25	4	21	86	.285	.330	.393
2009	21	2 Teams	A-A-	328	15	5	1	22	5	8	48	.353	.373	.443
2010	22	San Jose	A+	538	19	16	10	40	22	18	88	.329	.358	.488
2011	23	2 Teams	AA-A+	372	14	6	7	12	1	12	53	.312	.332	.445
2012	24	Fresno	AAA	476	20	10	5	1	0	15	82	.272	.297	.394
2013	25	2 Teams	AAA-Rk	314	12	3	4	3	0	13	53	.315	.350	.416
8 Seasons				2896	115	53	36	131	39	108	486	.306	.337	.427

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/18/2014.

As you can see, those numbers are fine for a player in Norfolk, but would need to improve a great deal to find himself as a very useful bench outfield option.

Julio Borbon has the history of good MLB play, but that player is not the one would walks out on the field these days.  As a non-roster player, he will almost assuredly find himself back in AAA unless he does something very remarkable in Spring Training or the injury bug hits others.

Right Handed Designated Hitter

None of the favored players so far (i.e., Lough, Colvin) profiles well as a designated hitter against southpaws.  Lough simply is not a good bat and Colvin is wholly ineffective against them.  That will necessitate someone who can fill in here.  Of all of the outfielders in camp looking for jobs, only four are right handed.

1	Steve Pearce
	Nolan Reimold
3	Delmon Young
4	Francisco Peguero

It can sometimes be difficult to see talent through the name.  Delmon Young can be one of those guys whose history and perceived value can make him seem more desirable than he really is.  One of the good benchmarks to use is what a player cost to acquire him.  This does not always work, but typically good players require money.  Delmon does not.  In fact, he has not required much money for a while.  Last year, the Phillies designated him for assignment in order to make room for Casper Wells.  That should give you pause if you think Dan Duquette pulled a baseball mind trick here.

Below is a table for each player's career marks by hand and projected value in left field. Peguerro's numbers are italicized to denote them being minor league values.

	wOBA - RHP	wOBA - LHP	Proj. LF UZR/150
Steve Pearce	0.276	0.349	-5
Francisco Peguerro	0.326	0.337	5
Nolan Reimold	0.327	0.338	-5
Delmon Young	0.309	0.348	-15

On first look, Young seems like a rather decent option.  He has hit lefties as well as Steve Pearce in the past and has not been as susceptible to right handed pitchers.  With a short bench, Pearce adds value because he can potentially fill in as a corner outfielder or even as a corner infielder.  If Pearce's issues at the plate are too problematic then a healthy Reimold should outpace Young.

I think if you are looking toward the future, Reimold is likely the one you would choose here as he is a more rounded player who could potentially become a starter.  Pearce is more of an immediate impact player with his bat.  Again, though, neither are exceptional designated hitters.

Left handed Designated Hitter

The group here has two somewhat interesting names.  Players who could be rather impressive, but whose chances of that are incredibly slim.

1	Tyler Colvin
2	Henry Urrutia
	Xavier Paul
4	Jack Cust

Colvin (who has yet to finalize his deal) and Urrutia are the two most intriguing players.  Colvin, we have already mentioned.  Urrutia, we have not.  He is interesting because he has been able to put on about 18 lbs of muscle in the off season (about 10% increase in weight).  Assuming that does not negatively impact his mechanics, it should help in turning him into more than the away slap hitter we saw last summer in Baltimore.  Of course, the added weight may make the already clunky defensive player even more clunkier and cementing himself as a bat only player.

The Final Score and What it Means

Left field is probably already figured out with David Lough logging most of the time out there.  The left handed designated hitter situation will be Tyler Colvin if he is healthy and signs.  Urrutia is likely to get more time in Norfolk and refine his hitting.  With Colvin in the fold, the team would not need another player for center field.  He and Lough could cover that.  This means Peguero would be designated for assignment.  Finally, the right handed designated hitter position will likely come down to whether help is needed in the infield (i.e., Pearce) or perhaps it depends on the health of Reimold.

What does this all mean?  The Baltimore Orioles came into the off season knowing that left field and designated hitter were weak points on the roster (not to mean starting pitching and second base).  In the end, they were unable to resolve those issues beyond stacking odds and ends that included fringe players already in the system as well as acquiring fringe players found on other teams.  This way of devising a solution is perfectly fine for a team fighting to be above .500, a team that needs some exceptional luck to see the playoffs.  It was a great solution and paid off in 2012.  It was a poor solution last year and almost paid off due to the revelations that were Manny Machado and Chris Davis.  It will work in 2014, if Machado, Davis, and someone else on the team make up three of the best performances in baseball.  It is a roll of the dice and the odds are stacked against the team.  For me, it is that action of a club looking to deal off significant pieces and retool for the 2016-2018 window that will include Jones, Machado, Gausman, Bundy, Schoop, and Harvey.