Curse of the Moose: Can Dylan Bundy break the cycle of disappointment?

In the waning days of November, 2000, Mike Mussina left the Orioles and signed a six-year, $88.5 million dollar contract with the New York Yankees.  Tucked under his arm were his 147 wins and his metaphorical placard adorned with the word “ace.”   

Mussina continued to be a steady anchor in Yankees’ rotation.  123 wins later, he retired, having pitched in two World Series (though never capturing a ring).  As for his former employers, the Baltimore Orioles, they would struggle to find a true replacement for the man they called “Moose.”

Enter Dylan Bundy. 

The 24-year-old righty from Oklahoma is the latest reason for O’s fans’ optimism.  He has the pedigree (fourth-overall pick in 2011), the stuff (11% swinging strike percentage in 2017) and the results (the club is 5-1 in his starts after last night’s win over the Red Sox) to back it up. 

Fans have been waiting forever and a day for Bundy to arrive.  For those who have been eagerly anticipating that moment, the early successes have to be encouraging.

If the Orioles have arrived at their ace, they’ve certainly taken the scenic route to get there.  From investing high draft picks to mining the international market, the O’s searched far and wide for quality arms.  Whether the culprit was injuries and/or general ineffectiveness, their pan has never yielded more than the occasional glitter of gold.  

For grins (or grimaces), here is every season’s starter leader in pitching WAR, since Mussina’s departure.  You could definitely win some bar bets with this list, which is not intended for those with weak stomachs:

2001: Josh Towers: 1.5 WAR

2002: Rodrigo Lopez: 3.8

2003: Pat Hentgen: 3.5

2004: Rodrigo Lopez: 4.9

2005: Bruce Chen: 3.0

2006: Erik Bedard: 3.9

2007: Erik Bedard: 5.7

2008: Jeremy Guthrie: 4.0

2009: Brad Bergesen: 3.1

2010: Jeremy Guthrie: 4.8

2011: Jeremy Guthrie: 1.8

2012: Miguel Gonzalez: 3.1

2013: Chris Tillman: 4.4

2014: Chris Tillman: 2.4

2015: Wei-Yin Chen: 3.8

2016: Kevin Gausman: 4.2

This is not to suggest that these pitchers are similar to each other, or to Bundy, or that WAR is the end-all-be-all stat for pitching.  It’s meant to illustrate the revolving door atop the Orioles’ rotation.   

Now, contrast that list to that of the seven seasons BEFORE that:

1994: Mussina: 5.4

1995: Mussina: 6.1

1996: Mussina: 3.6

1997: Mussina: 5.5

1998: Mussina: 5.0

1999: Mussina: 4.4

2000: Mussina: 5.6

That’s a nice little run there.  Consistency is the ultimate definition of an ace pitcher.  He’s your stopper, the guy who puts losing streaks and opposing hitters to bed. 

Bundy certainly has the potential to get to that point, but he has his work cut out for him.  Fortunately, he has youth on his side.  And, due to time missed with injuries, he has less mileage on his arm (less than 315 innings, majors and minors combined). 

Then again, his injuries (elbow, shoulder) have been in the worst locations you could think of, for a pitcher.  The team finally released its leash on his cutter, but now that he is throwing it again, will his arm hold up?

This is the first time that Bundy has started the season in the big league rotation.  The team is not considering an innings limit, but they may monitor his workload if he starts showing signs of fatigue.

In fact, once Tillman returns, it might not be the worst idea to skip a start here or there completely, to keep Bundy fresh for the stretch run.  They’ll need him at his best, then.  Long – not short – term success will dictate whether he gets to start working on a placard of his own.    

Opening Day Starters and Jason Hammel

A team's opening day starter, by itself, doesn't mean all that much. It shows who is each team's ace -- not always, but usually -- but it doesn't reveal how good the rest of a rotation actually is. And while it may be more of a charade at this point to find out a few days before spring training ends who every team's opening day starter is -- especially since no one cares about the "opening day starter" designation after that first game of the season -- it's still somewhat intriguing to see who gets the official nod.

Some teams are lucky enough to roll out a talented pitcher on opening day for a half-decade or longer. The most recent pitcher like that for the Orioles was Mike Mussina in the '90s. From 1994 to 1996 and from 1998 to 2000 (he had elbow tendinitis to start the season in 1997), Mussina got the ball on opening day. That's six times in a span of seven seasons. And that obviously wasn't out of necessity; Mussina was very, very good. It's a shame that he wasn't able to pitch in Baltimore beyond 2000.

Since Mussina, though, the Orioles haven't had a dominant force at the top of their rotation (except for maybe Erik Bedard for a couple of seasons). A handful of guys were supposed to fill that role, but for one reason or another, it just didn't work out. But this isn't a post about failed prospects, thankfully. It's just a look back at the pitchers to make opening day starts for the Orioles for the last decade. Here they are:

2012: Jake Arrieta (1.6 WAR)
2011: Jeremy Guthrie (2.0)
2010: Kevin Millwood (1.2)
2009: Jeremy Guthrie (1.7)
2008: Jeremy Guthrie (2.5)
2007: Erik Bedard (5.1)
2006: Rodrigo Lopez (1.7)
2005: Rodrigo Lopez (2.0)
2004: Sidney Ponson (2.8)
2003: Rodrigo Lopez (1.1)

There are some decent seasons sprinkled in that group, but there's just one elite performance: Bedard in 2007, before he was traded to the Mariners the following offseason. Unsurprisingly, that season was Bedard's best. He finished with a 3.16 ERA and struck out an absurd 30.2% of the batters he faced while walking 7.8% of them. That strikeout percentage was the best in all of baseball in 2007; the next closest was Scott Kazmir (26.9%). That's a fantastic feat, though he hasn't posted a strikeout percentage over 26% in any other season. And while he's been effective at times, he hasn't posted a single-season WAR above 2.1 since 2007, either.

So does Jason Hammel, this season's opening day hurler, have a chance at eclipsing Bedard's 5.1 WAR? It's unlikely, but not impossible. He was very good last season -- 3.43 ERA, 22.9 K%, 8.5 BB% -- which was a lot better than most fans were expecting, but he only pitched 118 innings because of a nagging knee injury (which he eventually needed surgery on). And thanks to an improved fastball, he induced ground balls 53.2% of the time -- a career best. A left-on-base percentage of 73.9% and home-run rate of 0.69, which were higher and lower, respectively, than his career averages, aided his strong stat line, but he wasn't overly lucky (.291 BABIP).

Hammel's work with pitching coach Rick Adair last spring to improve his two-seam fastball proved to be extremely effective. It also didn't hurt that, per Pitch F/X data, Hammel's average fastball velocity of 93.6 was the best of his career. If he's able to stay healthy, get close to the 200-inning mark, and maintain that same (or a similar) level of effectiveness with his fastball, Hammel could approach Bedard's outstanding 2007 season. He may not dominate like Bedard did in the strikeout department, but barring injury, he should at least be the Orioles' best opening day starter in more than five seasons.

And if he does pitch well and demonstrates that he can stay on the field, Hammel will present the Orioles with a difficult decision. Hammel, 30, is in his final arbitration year, meaning he's a free agent after 2013. Would the O's be willing to bring him back with a multiyear deal? It would probably make plenty of sense, depending on the price. Fortunately, the Orioles don't have to decide right now, but a big season for Hammel will certainly be beneficial to his bank account.