Blueprint For The 2018 Orioles (Option #1): So Yu Think Yu Can Pitch

Well, we’re finally here. The 2018 season has long been considered the likely last year that the Orioles will have a legitimate chance at competing for a playoff spot with their core players for the foreseeable future. Maybe “core players” casts too large of a net. This idea largely centers around the fact that, as of now, Manny Machado and Adam Jones will be free agents at this time next year, and those are two players that are difficult to replace. Though with several players in the minors taking big steps forward this past season, the post 2018 landscape may not be as bleak as it once seemed.

With that being said, having a (mostly) consistent 6+ WAR third baseman and an All-Star centerfielder on your roster doesn’t happen very often. So with the two of them possibly departing after the upcoming season, it’s extremely important to pull out all of the stops and make the 2018 Orioles as competitive as possible. And that’s what the Camden Depot writers (and some of our readers) will be trying to accomplish over the next week or two in our annual “Orioles Blueprint” series. I’m up first, but before we get to my proposal, let’s go over a couple of things.

Jon laid out the rules last week (along with Camden Depot's BORAS salary projections for pitchers and hitters). Here’s a quick recap:

1. No trades
2. Camden Depot’s BORAS salary projection model will be used to sign free agents
3. MLB Trade Rumor arbitration projections are used for arbitration eligible players
4. All team-controlled non-arbitration eligible players are assumed to have a salary $550,000

Budget: $155 million

Between Adam Jones, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, and Darren O’Day, the Orioles have a total of $53.33 million in salary committed for the 2018 season.

Remaining Funds: $101.67 million

Team Options

First thing is first; there are some decisions to be made on a couple of options. One of the assumptions we made was that Welington Castillo would decline his player option, making him a free agent. If anyone wants him on the 2018 Orioles, they’ll need to pay him market price.

J.J. Hardy has a $14 million team option that would have vested if he received 600 PA’s in 2017 or 1,150 PA’s combined between 2016 and 2017. He reached neither. Hardy has had a great career in Baltimore, but there is no chance I’m picking up that option. Declining the option means I buy him out for $2 million.

Wade Miley also has a team option for $12 million. With the free agent market for starters the way it is, I did not think Miley would have to perform all that well for me to pick up his option. He ended up not even meeting the low bar I set. Fortunately, his buy out of $500,000 is cheap, so declining his option was a relatively easy decision for me.

Remaining Funds: $99.17 million

Arbitration Eligible Players

Seven Orioles players are eligible for arbitration. I’ll be tendering contracts to all of them in 2018 except…Zach Britton. I know, it sounds crazy, and I actually can’t believe that I am typing these words right now. Don’t get me wrong, I still think Zach Britton is a good pitcher, but there are a lot of reasons why I decided to not tender him a contract this offseason. I am planning to explain this decision in more detail in a follow up post. In short, it boiled down to my opinion that his trade value has been greatly diminished coupled with the thought that the extra $12.2 million saved can be put to better use.

Remaining Funds: $56.27 million

Qualifying Offers

None of the impending free agents are even close to being in consideration for a qualifying offer. This is the easiest decision of this entire exercise.

2018 Roster

The figure below will be the starting point for my Orioles blueprint.

As you can see, there are quite a lot of positions to fill (3 SP’s, 5 RP’s, 2 corner OF’s, 1 catcher, and 3 bench spots). Of course, some of them will be filled with players who are under team control and are not yet eligible for arbitration. I’ll outline that in the upcoming sections.

Before moving on, let's factor in Dylan Bundy's assumed $1.50 million salary for 2018.

Remaining Funds: $54.77 million

Infield

With the (pretty great) acquisition of Tim Beckham before the 2017 trade deadline, the 2018 infield was pretty much set. While I think Chance Sisco (probably) showed enough to make the opening day roster as the second catcher, I wouldn’t be opposed to sending him down to AAA to start the season. In the event of that, I would sign a strong framer/defender (someone like Rene Rivera) on a non-roster invite to spring training for a low base salary (< $1 million) if they make the major league club. For now, though, we’ll pencil in Caleb Joseph as the starting catcher to begin the season, with Sisco ($550,000) getting semi-regular playing time as the backup until at some point their roles hopefully reverse.

You can swap Davis and Trumbo between 1B and DH. While Davis grades out as the better defender there over his career, Jon will occasionally mention on Twitter that Trumbo hits much better when he’s playing the field (Matt K. also posted about it).

Remaining Funds: $54.22 million

Outfield

Trey Mancini had a great year offensively and did not embarrass himself out in left field. At an assumed cost of $550,000, he’s going to be the starting left-fielder.

Austin Hays had a much better 2017 season than anyone probably thought he would have. Putting aside his small sample size struggles during his brief cup of coffee in the majors last year, I think it would be asking too much for him to come up and be the team’s everyday right fielder. I think he needs to spend a little bit of time in AAA before he’s ready to be in Baltimore full time. With that in mind, I would fill the right field position with Jon Jay. I actually advocated for the Orioles to sign Jay in my blueprint for 2017. Here’s what I said:

“…Jay is essentially your league average hitter (career 106 wRC+) and fielder (career -1 Defensive Run Saved), can play all 3 outfield positions adequately…”

Jay ended up signing a 1-year deal with the Cubs last offseason and put up another average season (this is a reminder that average is good). Jay’s going to play the 2018 season at age 33, so his defense is going to start trending slightly below average, but BORAS only sees a 1-year deal for $9.2 million for him, so there is limited risk in signing him. And if Hays plays well enough to get called up early in the season, Jay can easily shift into a supporting role, where his league average bat can adequately fill in at any outfield position.

Remaining Funds: $44.47 million

Pitching Staff

I may be publishing my blueprint first, but I think it’s safe to say that everyone’s blueprint will be focusing mainly on starting pitching. And that’s not just a coincidence, as the Baltimore rotation was absolutely dismal in 2017, ranking 27th in fWAR (29th in bWAR), 30th in ERA, 28th in FIP, 28th in innings pitched, etc, etc, etc. After declining Miley’s option, I’m left with Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy as my only 2 starters. There are (in my opinion, very questionable) internal options to fill those slots, and while at least one of them may emerge as a decent end of the rotation starter, I don’t want to go into the 2017 season depending on any of them. I’m ideally looking for an ace, a mid-rotation starter, and a flyer on a high risk starter.

Yu Darvish (photo via Keith Allison)

There are 2 pitchers on the free agent market that come close to being called an ace. One is Jake Arrieta, who is in no way coming back to Baltimore. The other is Yu Darvish, and he is my main target. BORAS projects Darvish to land a contract of 4 years and $69.26 million ($17.31 million per year)*. Darvish had a rough second half of 2017, which (as Jon noted in the BORAS projection for pitchers), significantly hurt his free agent standing in our projection system’s eyes. Other than a spike in his BABIP and HR rate in July and August, the rest of his peripherals appear to be in line with the more successful months of his season, so I’m not too worried.

For a mid-rotation starter, I would target Alex Cobb, who, according to BORAS, can be signed for 3 years and $31.14 million ($10.38 million per year)*. Performance wise, Cobb has been a really dependable middle of the rotation starter since coming into the big leagues in 2011. Outside of an injury shortened 2016 where he pitched only 22 innings (he also missed all of 2015 due to a torn UCL requiring Tommy John surgery), Cobb has averaged 2.8 fWAR per 180 innings pitched. The problem is, Cobb’s never reached 180 innings in a season, so there is some risk in this signing (he had a career high of 179.1 IP in 2017). Cobb is not a high strikeout pitcher, but he doesn’t walk many either and for the most part keeps the ball on the ground, which is good when one pitches half their games at Camden Yards.

I’m going to fill out the starting rotation by taking a flyer on Derek Holland for a BORAS projected 1 year deal for $1.5 million. Holland has been both injured and mostly ineffective since 2014. A spike in his home run rate and an inability to find the striekzone (leading to a 2017 walk rate of 12%) led to a 2017 where he was nearly an entire win worse than replacement level. However, I’m hoping I can get a little bit of productiveness out of the 32-year-old left-hander. I’m not expecting him to return to his 2013 form, but it’s not crazy to think he could provide some production as a 5th starter. During the 2016 season, he was worth 0.9 fWAR in 107.1 innings pitched when his walk and home run rates were more in line with his career levels. He doesn’t have to be great, and even if he’s terrible, the $1.5 million guaranteed will easily allow the team to cut their losses if needed. In that event, Baltimore can use one of Gabriel Ynoa, Jayson Aquino, Alec Asher, or Miguel Castro to fill the 5th spot in the rotation.

In the bullpen, I’ve got Brad Brach closing and Darren O’Day setting up. As in years past, I’m filling in the remainder of the relief corps with internal options making the league minimum. Mychal Givens, Miguel Castro, and Richard Bleier have certainly earned spots in the bullpen based on their 2017 performance (although Castro and Bleier’s peripherals do worry me). I’ll go with Donnie Hart as my second left-handed pitcher. Gabriel Ynoa is out of options, so he’ll likely get the last spot in the bullpen as a long man (I’d rather keep him as starting pitching depth than risk losing him to waivers). Other internal options such as Tanner Scott, Alec Asher, and Chris Lee can be in the mix as well. I’ll admit, that group does not inspire a lot of confidence, but bullpens can be fickle and it’s the one place where you can find something that sticks if you throw enough at the wall. With that in mind, I’m also handing out a bunch of non-roster invites to spring training to flawed relievers.

Remaining Funds: $12.53 million

Bench

We need 3 players to round out the bench. There is no real infield depth, so finding an infielder will be a priority. Furthermore, unless you want to count Mark Trumbo, there isn’t really much outfield depth either. I’m going to use the bulk of my remaining dollars to sign Howie Kendrick, who BORAS projects can be acquired for 1 year and $10.6 million. Kendrick solves some of the depth problem by being able to adequately play both infield and outfield corner positions, as well as his natural position of second base. Additionally, he’s a career 107 wRC+ hitter, who just finished up a very productive season at the plate, hitting .315/.368/.475. Of course, that came in only 334 plate appearances, as Kendrick has been somewhat of injury prone the last couple of seasons. Hopefully playing the role of part-time super utility player (something he’s done the last 2 year) will help keep him healthy.

The next bench spot goes to Anthony Santander over Joey Rickard. While I think Rickard can be a useful player, I think Santander has more promise, and I’d be interested to see if he can fulfill some of that. Plus, as a Rule 5 draft pick who spent most of the 2017 season on the 60-day DL, Santander needs to be on the active roster in 2018 for 44 days before he can be optioned to the minor leagues. The Orioles have stuck with him this long, I think it makes sense to get to the finish line.

The last bench spot should go to someone who can play shortstop, as currently, the backup shortstop options are moving Manny Machado or Jonathan Schoop off of their positions. I don’t think there is an internal option here, and without much money left, I’ll need to take the cheap route. I’ll sign Cliff Pennington, who will get a 1 year contract for $800,000 if he makes the team out of spring training. Pennington isn’t much of a hitter (career 79 wRC+), but not only can he play an average shortstop (career +3 DRS in nearly 5,000 innings), but can also play an average or better 3B and 2B as well, giving Buck Showalter a little more flexibility when giving guys some extra rest.

Remaining Funds: $580,000

Conclusion

Here’s the final tally:
OF Jon Jay – 1 year, $9.20 million
SP Yu Darvish – 4 years, $69.26 million
SP Alex Cobb – 3 years, $31.14 million
SP Derek Holland – 1 year, $1.50 million
UTIL Howie Kendrick – 1 year, $10.60 million
INF Cliff Pennington – NRI (1 year, $800,000 if makes team)

I always love doing this exercise because it demonstrates just how difficult it can be to try and build a winning team while sticking to a realistic budget. Sometimes tough decisions need to be made. It was a difficult decision to non-tender Zach Britton, but with the starting pitching being as bad as it was, I felt that reallocating the $12.2 million owed to Britton was needed in order for me to adequately address the holes in the starting rotation and outfield/bench.

*Author's Note: The original version of this post used incorrect/outdated BORAS projected contracts for Yu Darvish and Alex Cobb. Their projected salaries have been updated. As a result of this change,  there was not enough money remaining to sign SP Francisco Liriano. Instead, Derek Holland was signed as the starting pitcher characterized as a high risk flyer. The paragraph on Liriano has been replaced by one discussing Holland.

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Postscript: I realize that my blueprint this year is not as realistic as some of the blueprints I have completed prior to previous seasons. I am under no sort of impression that the Orioles would even dream of non-tendering Zach Britton this offseason. I also think that Darvish may get more than what BORAS projects for him (possibly Cobb as well), which likely puts him out of range for the Orioles, considering the other holes they need to fill.

Having said that, a more realistic option of my blueprint would be to tender Britton a contract ($12.2 million) and not sign Darvish. The extra $5+ million would then be used to sign someone more dependable than Holland, possibly Clayton Richard (2 years, $17.50 million) or Jason Vargas (2 years, $17.20 million)...or it can be used for a more attractive offer for Alex Cobb. In this scenario, the 5th spot in the rotation is open for someone in the Asher, Aquino, Ynoa, Castro group to win out of spring training.

Scouring the League for Second Base Surplus

The Orioles offseason needs have been discussed at great length on the Depot during the offseason.  One of those needs is at second base.  Earlier in the offseason, Joe took a thorough look at Baltimore’s in-house options to man the position in 2014, as well as potential free agents and some trade options (namely Howie Kendrick and Darwin Barney).  Additionally, Matt wondered if the Orioles should pursue Mark Ellis.  Today, I’ll be taking a broader look at trade targets by examining teams that currently have a surplus of second baseman.  Additionally, we’ll look at what those teams may be looking for in a return (based on reports/rumors/common sense) and see if they match up well in a potential trade with Baltimore.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Potential Targets: Didi Gregorius, Chris Owings, Aaron Hill, Martin Prado

The emergence of Chris Owings as a top shortstop prospect is creating the log-jam in the Diamondbacks’ middle infield.  Owings was ranked by Baseball Prospectus as Arizona’s 3^rd best prospect heading into the 2013 season, and he played well when he was called up to the big leagues in September, hitting .291/.361/.382 in 61 PA’s.  Both Owings and Gregorius are considered above average to plus defenders at shortstop (both can play 2B as well), with Owings projected to be the better hitter of the two.  That being the case, Owings’ bat may end up being below average at the keystone, due to some questions about his approach.

Aaron Hill (photo via Keith Allison)

Since both Gregorius and Owings have less than a year of service time (making them cheap from a financial point of view, but expensive in terms of a trade), the likely target out of these 3 should probably be Hill (Prado’s availability is likely limited due to his versatility and contract).  After a tough 2-year stretch in 2010 and 2011, Hill bounced back in 2012, hitting .302/.360/.502.  His 2013 was similar in terms of his rate stats, but he missed half the year due to a fractured left hand when he was hit by a pitch in April.  Hill is only an average runner, but will provide above average hitting and defense.  He is beginning a 3 year, $35 million contract in 2014, and because of this, he should cost less in talent than Gregorius and Owings.

Team Needs: By all indications, Arizona is looking for outfield power (which the Orioles don’t have) and major league starting pitching.  Unless Arizona believes that Brian Matusz can still start and/or Zach Britton can throw strikes, it may be difficult to complete a deal for Hill.

Los Angeles Angels

Potential Targets: Howie Kendrick, Grant Green

Joe already provided a good synopsis of a potential deal for Kendrick (linked above), so I won’t go into that, and trading for Green wouldn’t improve the Orioles at second base in 2014.  Compared to Hill, Kendrick will give you a little less production (through less walks, more strikeouts, and slightly less power), but he will give you a better batting average if you’re into that sort of thing.

Howie Kendrick (photo via Keith Allison)

Team Needs: P & P (which is something I made up and stands for Pitching and Prospects).  I think a deal for Kendrick would look similar to a proposed deal with Arizona, but more likely to happen due to the Angels increased willingness to accept prospects as part of the deal.

Milwaukee Brewers

Potential Targets: Rickie Weeks, Scooter Gennett

A team that's in the position the Brewers find themselves (they’re not very good) will not be trading Gennett, who had a great 2013 (in 230 PA’s), even if he likely outperformed his true talent.  As for Weeks, I bet you could basically get him for free, not that you’d necessarily want to.  He’s not a good defender and the last 2 years, he hasn’t been a good hitter either, posting a below average wRC+ in both years (with an ugly wRC+ of 86 last year).  On top of that, Weeks will be paid $11 million in 2014 and has a vesting option for $11.5 million in 2015 (the option vests if Weeks accumulates 600 PA’s in 2014 or 1,200 PA’s in 2013 and 2014 combined).  Despite missing some time with injuries, Weeks was very productive from 2009 to 2011 (a minimum 124 wRC+ in each year), but that seems like a long time ago.

Still, if the Orioles can convince Milwaukee to cover much of the cost in addition to not having to give up much talent, this may be an intriguing option for Baltimore.  If Weeks struggles, the 2015 option won’t vest anyway.*

Team Needs: Prospects.  It doesn’t look like they will be contending in 2014, and their farm system is pretty weak.  There is a possible match here if Baltimore wants to take a chance on Weeks.

*Weeks ended the 2013 season on the DL and had surgery on his left hamstring.  His timetable is 4-6 months, so depending on how his rehab is going, Weeks may not be a viable trade candidate.

Oakland Athletics

Potential Targets: Alberto Callaspo, Jemile Weeks, Eric Sogard, Jed Lowrie

There are a lot of options to target from the A’s, except there aren’t.  Jed Lowrie will be difficult to acquire, especially if the A’s can’t find a shortstop to move him to second base (a better position for him defensively).  Sogard is an above average fielder but can’t hit, Callaspo is an average hitter, but can’t field (at second base anyway), and Weeks is pretty much an unknown.

Callaspo and Weeks are probably the best candidates to target, but each should make Orioles GM Dan Duquette a little uneasy based on what they would likely cost.  With Callaspo, any value he provides on offense (again average to slightly below average), would be given back on defense, as he has a career UZR/150 of -8.4 in over 2000 innings at second base.  He is a versatile defender though (in the sense that he can play many positions without completely embarrassing himself), and is actually an above average defender at the hot corner.  Weeks is a former top prospect that hasn’t really produced anything at the major league level.  Besides what seems like a “luck driven” debut in 2011, Weeks hasn’t hit and has played below average defense as well.  Still, if the price is low for the former top prospect, the Orioles may want to look into acquiring him, just not with the idea that he’d be their starting second baseman in 2014.

Team Needs: Oakland appears to be primarily looking at upgrading their starting pitching and shortstop positions.  I don’t think there is a fit here that would help both teams, as I probably wouldn’t give up a significant player/prospect for either Callaspo or Weeks, which is something Oakland will probably ask for.

Seattle Mariners

Potential Targets: Dustin Ackley, Nick Franklin, Brad Miller

Franklin and Miller won’t be going anywhere, as the Mariners are in the process of quasi-rebuilding and they’re both under team control for the next 6 seasons.  Ackley may not be going anywhere either, as the team is now trying him out in centerfield (one of the positions he played in college), although he may become expendable if Seattle signs Jacoby Ellsbury as it has been rumored.  Seattle sent Ackley to the minors in 2013 and may be giving up on Ackley after 2 straight years of lackluster hitting, which is the ONE thing that basically every scout was sure he would be able to do.  What’s worse is that no one seems to know exactly why Ackley isn’t hitting, and some have even suggested that the issue is mental.  What we do know is that Ackley has turned himself into an above average defender at second base (7.3 UZR/150 in over 2,400 innings) to go along with his above average baserunning skills.  If Ackley is available at a discounted or even a reasonable cost, I’d be extremely tempted to take a chance on him.

Team Needs: Seattle is looking for power this offseason, and although they prefer it to come from the outfield, they’ll take it anywhere.  They’re also looking for a frontline starter (who isn’t).  There doesn’t appear to be too much of a fit here either, but acquiring Ackley may not require much of a return.

St. Louis Cardinals

Not anymore.  With the trade of David Freese to the Angels, the Cardinals will likely move Matt Carpenter to third base and have Kolten Wong man the keystone.

Texas Rangers

Not anymore.  Although, at the time this trade went through, I found myself wondering how the deal would have looked if the Rangers would have traded Kinsler to the Orioles for Chris Davis (ie, who else would have been coming to the Orioles besides Kinsler).

Washington Nationals

Potential Targets: Danny Espinosa, Anthony Rendon

Forget about trading for Rendon, he wouldn’t be worth what the Nationals would ask for him.  They should be willing to discuss Espinosa though, and he probably wouldn’t be expensive.  He is very risky, since he’s coming off a terrible year where he needed surgery for a fractured wrist.  For a player whose best attribute at the plate is his power (actually it’s really his only offensive attribute), that’s not good news.  Espinosa is a plus defender (he can also provide good defense at shortstop) and isn’t eligible for arbitration yet, so it’s not all bad news.

Team Needs: Not much.  They are looking for left handed bullpen help, so with the excess left handers currently on the Orioles 40 man roster, the two teams could easily get something done.  However, Espinosa is so risky right now that there’s a decent chance he provides less production than Baltimore’s in-house options.

Conclusion

So after all that, realistic options include (in approximate order of lowest risk/highest cost to highest risk/lowest cost) Aaron Hill, Howie Kendrick, Dustin Ackley, Rickie Weeks, Danny Espinosa.  As you can see, the list drops off dramatically after Kendrick.  Whether the Orioles should make a trade for any of these players obviously depends on what they would need to give up in talent, in addition to the added salary commitments of the player acquired.  However, in what seems to be an increasingly expensive free agent market, any money owed to Hill and Kendrick as a result of a trade may end up looking like a steal.