Two More Minor-League Free Agents



Joe Reisel's Archives

In my previous article, I explored four 2015 Norfolk Tides re-signed by the Orioles as minor league free agents. Interestingly, the Orioles signed a few other minor league free agents who have previously played in their organization. Two of these signees are more interesting than usual - one, a former top Orioles prospect, the other someone who might be the best candidate for promotion if the Orioles need an infielder. I'll provide an overview of these two players returning to the Orioles, so that if you see their names you'll have reasonable expectations. Again, while there may be some basic statistical analysis on these players, most of the comments will be based on my observations while I was datacasting games for MiLB.com or scoring games for Baseball Info Solutions. In 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014 I worked 44, 44, 43, and 45 games respectively.

Xavier Avery, outfielder

Photo courtesy of Elaina Ellis / Norfolk Tides

In August 2013, the Orioles traded Xavier Avery to the Mariners for Michael Morse. Avery had been a once-hot prospect who wasn't developing as quickly as hoped, and the Orioles decided to cut bait. Since then, Avery has played for the Mariners, Tigers, Giants, and Twins AAA affiliates. He played much better for those teams than he did as a Norfolk Tide; in fact, over the past two seasons, Avery has performed in AAA about as well as Dexter Fowler has in the majors:

Avery (AAA): .279/.343/.396

Fowler (MLB): .262/..357/.406

When Avery was with Norfolk in 2012-2013, I was impressed with his athletic ability but not very impressed with his baseball skills. He ran well and stole a few bases, but didn't have an offensive approach that took advantage of his speed. He didn't play center field. He drew walks at a marginal rate. He didn't have a lot of power. The past two years, he's clearly been better.

That said, I am in no way suggesting that Avery would be an adequate alternative to Dexter Fowler. He's the AAA equivalent of Dexter Fowler, a fairly good offensive player who can play a bad center field. Avery's offense will suffer in Norfolk's Harbor Park, and he may have a reputation as a failed prospect.. But if he plays well, and the Orioles need an outfielder, he might get promoted; and it's not impossible that he'll do well.

Steve Tolleson, infielder

Photo courtesy of Elaina Ellis / Norfolk Tides.

Steve Tolleson spent 2012 in the Orioles' organization, playing 29 games for the Orioles and 50 for the Norfolk Tides. With Norfolk, he played mostly at shortstop, although he's played as much second and third in his minor league career. Tolleson spent 2013 with the White Sox AAA affiliate in Charlotte. The past two seasons he's been in the Blue Jays' organization, spending most of 2014 in the major leagues and most of 2015 injured.

Tolleson is a player who doesn't have any really outstanding skill. He hits for a decent batting average and draws a few walks, but he doesn't have much power nor outstanding speed. Defensively, Tolleson doesn't have the range or positioning skill to be a plus shortstop; he doesn't have the position-specific skills to be a plus second baseman; he doesn't have the arm or reflexes to be a plus third baseman.

That said, I think Tolleson is the best current option for a major-league promotion if an injury strikes one of the Orioles' projected infielders. Comparing Tolleson to Paul Janish, Janish is a better defensive shortstop but - possibly because he's such a good defensive shortstop - he hasn't played much at other positions. Tolleson isn't a good hitter, but Janish is a true offensive zero. If Tolleson is healthy, I'd expect him to see at least a little time in the major leagues.

Dan Duquette's August Waiver Trades (2012-2014)

As the non-waiver trade deadline came and went, fan bases began gnashing their teeth over missed chances as incoming shooting stars turned into airplane lights.  To console their audience, general managers and beat writers alike repeated the age worn mantra that the non-waiver trade deadline is an arbitrary deadline; that weaknesses can be shored up in August.  This is true.  Big trades do happen in August when the players involved are massively overpaid in relation to their performance.  That is true for when the Dodgers and Red Sox hooked up with the Dodgers agreeing to pay for the past sins of handing deals to Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett.  More cash strapped teams like the Orioles tend to aim quite a bit lower.  In this post, we will review what Dan Duquette's August deals were made for the Orioles.

Joe Saunders - photo by Keith Allison

In 2012, the Orioles were fighting tooth and nail to get into the playoffs for the first time since 1997.  Duquette made moves to try to shore up his bullpen.  On August 12th, the Orioles acquired J.C. Romero for at-the-end-of-the-road organizational filler Carlos Rojas.  Romero had been a very good and sometimes great reliever for the previous decade.  However, it all fell apart in St. Louis in 2012 with Romero being assigned to AAA.  Dominating AAA, the Orioles spent essentially nothing to get Romero from the Cardinals.  He proceeded to pitch as he did with the Cardinals and sputtered through five August appearances.

This led to the Orioles recalling failed starter Brian Matusz and putting him in the LOOGY role next to the more robust southpaw Troy Patton.  With such a long history of failure and only a couple stellar outings under his belt, the Orioles decided to trade from their bevy of right handed relief options and sent Matt Lindstrom out West as compensation for struggling lefty Joe Saunders from the Diamondbacks on August 28th.  It appeared the intention was for Saunders to spot start, if needed, and be a veteran lefthander out of the pen.  However, that did not happen.  The Orioles had difficulty filling out there rotation with Hammel ailing and Chen tiring.  Saunders effectively was handed a spot in the rotation and pulled off seven Houdini starts to end the season.  He was also handed the ball for the play-in wild card against Texas and provided 5.2 innings of one run ball.  Saunders did the same later in the series against the Yankees.  Likewise, Matusz was surprising elite when used as a lefty specialist.  Things did not wind up how it seems they were expected to, but it seems fair to say in hindsight that this deal was essential.

Xavier Avery - photo by Keith Allison

When 2013 rolled around, the Orioles were struggling to get into the playoff picture.  They wanted a right handed bat to provide some offense at the designated hitter position.  Danny Valencia had been crushing lefties, but the club moved on August 30th and sent AAA depth OF Xavier Avery for struggling, ailing professional hitter Mike Morse.  Briefly, my concern at the time was dealing for a redundant part with season long leg issues while giving up a minor league player who was young, still raw, and had options.  What transpired was that Morse apparently had an injured wrist that he did not disclose and was of negative value for the Orioles, taking plate appearances away from better hitters.  Avery remains a raw talent, but is not so young anymore.  In the end, the deal did not work out, but the club was not exactly hurt.  I would maintain though that dealing out fringe mid-level prospects hurts the club's ability to have complementary players on larger deals.  Though that is splitting hairs a bit.

Anyway, the club finished 12 games out of first place and 6.5 games behind the wild card.

There was a different feel in 2014,the club enjoyed August mostly sliding around 6 to 9 games ahead in the AL East.  However, the club had a few areas where upgrades were desirable.  David Lough was enjoying a deceptively solid season, but was providing sub-optimal performances with his bat.  Additionally, Manny Machado going down with a knee injury made the club thin at third with Ryan Flaherty backed up by Chris Davis or whoever was visiting from Norfolk.  On August 30th, Duquette made two deals.

In the first one, a struggling (243/309/354) OF Alejandro De Aza was considered a probable non-tender.  The Orioles, however, decided to give De Aza a shot and managed to acquire him for RHP Mark Blackmar and RHP Miguel Chalas.  Blackmar is one of those lackluster four pitch mix command and control guys who get by in the low minors with being able to get guys to chase pitches that more advanced pitchers simply won't swing at.  He is turning in another solid season starting in AA, but is doing so with 3.9 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9.  That pitch to contact style won't play well in the Majors.  Chalas has a mid 90s fastball with life and, well, not much else.  He currently is getting eaten up in Charlotte.

Alejandro De Aza - photo by Keith Allison

Back to De Aza, though.  De Aza wound up replacing David Lough in left field as his bat blossomed again with a slash of 293/341/537.  What was surmised as a De Aza/Delmon Young platoon shifted to a De Aza show with 20 games started in September.  He then continued to rake in the Tigers and Royals series in the post season.  With such an impressive month and a half under his belt, the Orioles tendered De Aza a contract for 2015.  De Aza proceeded to repeat his 2014 season, but was horrible for the Orioles and stellar for the Red Sox.  De Aza is once again a likely August trade candidate.  For their troubles, the Orioles acquired Joe Gunkel who is like Mark Blackmar, but with one less pitch.

In the second deal, the Orioles tried to address their third base issues by acquiring Kelly Johnson and Michael Alamanzar (who had originally been the Orioles' Rule 5 pickup).  Kelly Johnson had begun the year with the Yankees, but had not performed.  The Yankees in need of better infield options acquired Stephen Drew from the Red Sox in exchange from Johnson.  Johnson spent less than a month with the Red Sox before he was packaged off to Baltimore.  Michael Alamanzar is apparently a favorite fringe prospect for the Orioles.  They tried to stash him through the Rule 5 draft, but injury and lack of opportunity resulted in them handing him back to Boston where he was not appreciated.  The Orioles were able to acquire both for Ivan DeJesus and Jemile Weeks.  De Jesus quickly left Boston while Weeks stayed on with a solid September that turned into a 2016 contract that went South.

For the Orioles, Johnson provided a league average bat with poor defense.  He made it to the postseason roster and saw a single uneventful at bat in each of the series.  Johnson was essentially a non-factor.  Meanwhile, Alamanzar has likely not enjoyed his season in Norfolk.  He will go as far as his bat takes him and his bat tends to accompany him only between the dugout and home plate.  It would not be surprising to see him in another organization in 2016.

All in all, there have been meaningful trades in August, but with players who were largely considered to be worthless.  The Orioles have had good fortune smile on them on a few occasions.  Joe Saunders helped take the Orioles into the post season in 2012.  However, it should be noted that it was originally considered a move to shore up the bullpen by taking advantage of his splits.  In 2014, a largely unwanted outfielder was acquired and turned back into a prime version of himself.  Maybe the Orioles saw something there or maybe they simply shrugged and took a chance on a proven, yet struggling player.  It worked out here, but it did not work out with Romero, Morse, or, perhaps, Johnson.

As it stands, here are some potential players that are upcoming free agents who could potentially help in left field:

Rajai Davis, Tigers (251/305/410)
Alejandro De Aza, Red Sox (266/321/434)
Delmon Young, Free Agent (270/289/339)
Austin Jackson, Mariners (250/294/352)
Drew Stubbs, Rockies (222/294/444)
Marlon Byrd, Reds (246/298/474)
Will Venable, Padres (261/322/388)

Too bad De Aza is not currently in left.  Duquette tends to make his move toward the end of August from the scraps of talent that make their way through the waiver wire.  I imagine that this season will be no different.

Dan Duquette's Trades in 20/20 (2013)

The last post covered Duquette's deals during the 2012 season and found that five of his seven deals were simply parts with minimal value dealt for other parts with minimal value.  The two deals that differed were very much in his favor: (1) Jeremy Guthrie for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom and (2) Matt Lindstrom for Joe Saunders.  Five pushes and two pluses are a track record that any first year General Manager would enjoy having.

In this post, we progress to the 2012 season and see how things shake out.

November 20, 2012
INF Robert Andino for OF Trayvon Robinson

This was one of those deals where each team wants to check out an uninspiring piece the other team owns to fill a place of organizational need.  Andino's four years in baseball hate some highlights, such as a game winning hit that knock the Red Sox out of the 2011 playoffs, but largely was a long trial that showed that Andino was a Norfolk shuttle type of player who had no options.  Seattle gave Trayvon Robinson two extended shots in a pretty meager outfield, but his free swinging and marginal defense were poor fits in SafeCo (and likely everywhere else).  So, the clubs exchanged pieces they were quite willing to simply release.

Robinson wound up playing well in Bowie last season and was then granted free agency status where he quickly returned to his first club, the Los Angelos Dodgers.  Andino had a miserable stint with the Mariners and is now organizational filler for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: The Orioles didn't give up much in Andino or probably get much in Robinson.
Conclusion: 0.2 bWAR, Push

November 30, 2012
RHP Jhondaniel Medina for INF Yamaico Navarro

Second base has been a sore subject for the Orioles ever since Brian Roberts's extension became an albatross of medical calamities.  Each season, some hope was placed on Roberts to fulfill his annual 10 MM salary with some useful play at second, but age and conclusions can be cruel.  To provide a bit of a cushion the Orioles tried to use players like Robert Andino and Ryan Flaherty in 2012 to varying success.  They now looked for a new collection of second basemen to provide a safety net for Roberts.

Navarro was an interesting prospect who was continually not living up to expectations and frustrating clubs with his behavior.  However, it was clear to see there was talent there and that keeps a guy employed.  After a season in Pittsburgh where he dominated AAA and was dominated in the Majors, the Pirates saw him as a commodity they no longer saw as part of their future.  They were willing to ship him to the Orioles for a hard throwing pitcher in rookie ball named Medina.  It was a commodity that most teams have in spades, a hard throwing pitcher in the low minors.  However, it is a commodity that the Orioles largely lack.  That said, these guys rarely pan out, so losing one is not a big loss.  Though, having no stable full of hard throwing relief arms in the low minors is an issue, but that article is for another day.

What happened?  Navarro appeared in a couple games for the Orioles while performing well in AAA.  He is now toiling in the Yankees system.  Medina has moved up to HiA ball where his stuff plays well against the hitters, but he has little clue where his pitches are going.  He does not look destined for the big league club yet.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: The Orioles find themselves with a player who used to be an interesting prospect and has failed multiple times at the major league level, but gives them more options for filling second base.  The Pirates get more flexibility in their 40 man roster by dealing a guy two other teams had given up on in the past two seasons along with acquiring an slightly interesting, but certainly not unique, arm.
Conclusion: 0.2 bWAR; Push

April 10, 2013
RHP Luis Ayala for LHP Chris Jones

Luis Ayala is one of the pitchers who seems to always find himself gainfully employed as the third or fourth righthander out of the pen or as someone who is earning some money in AAA, waiting for a spot to open up.  After a strong 2012 season where he prevented his own baserunners from scoring, but not others, he was a someone extra arm in the pen for the 2013 squad.  The Braves, however, needed another decent and cheap arm in the pen.  They offered a talented and erratic southpaw reliever by the name of Chris Jones.

Ayala proceeded to produce well for the Braves, making the Orioles kind of wish that Pedro Strop was dealt instead and led to more dealing that now looks somewhat poor now to make up for a lack of right handed bullpen depth.  Jones has been strong in AAA and is on target this year to throw more innings in season than he ever has.  Ayala returned to the Orioles this year, but was released and was most recently throwing for the Blue Jays in their minor league system.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: No comment was made.
Conclusion: -0.4bWAR; Arguably the Braves benefited.

April 28, 2013
RHP Rob Delaney for C Chris Snyder

This was a deal done simply for depth and a chance to see if a player could regain former glow at a position of need while dealing out a player who did not fit the organization.  That sentence could be written for the Orioles' side as well as the Angels'.  Delaney was a smart right handed pitcher who succeeded everywhere in the minors except AAA where his stuff came across as average.  Two short stints in the Majors were largely full of trouble.  Chris Snyder used to be the future of the Diamondbacks organization with a profile of being an exceptional offense first talent.  However, by the time the Angels got him, the Diamondbacks, Pirates, Astros, and Nationals had given up on him.

This deal also wound up being a lot of nothing.  Delaney struggled to finish his year and is no longer with any organization.  Chris Snyder played in nine games for the Orioles and held his own, but it was nothing special.  He retired after the season.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: Chris Snyder has operated long under the guise of being an offensive catcher.  He does have a little pop, but that was more present his first few years in the league.  Since 2009 though, he has had issues with power, contact, or both.  This, combined with slightly below average skills behind the plate and you wind up with a veteran playing in AAA without a MLB contract.  You can say that Snyder is no worse than Teagarden, which is largely true.  Both are essentially replacement level players.  Exposito caused concerns because his offensive calling card simply has not shown up and his defense is worse than Teagarden’s or Snyder’s.  For the Orioles to only have to give up a fringe MiL relief pitcher, it was a good move.  You should expect Snyder to be DFA’d upon Teagarden’s return.
Conclusion: 0.1 bWAR; Push

July 2, 2013
RHP Jake Arrieta, RHP Pedro Strop, and international money for RHP Scott Feldman, C Steve Clevenger

As July opened up, the Orioles were clearly in trouble.  Their starting pitching was a bit in shambles.  This was particularly true with Jason Hammel's regression and the imploding of Jake Arrieta whenever he took the mound.  The bullpen was also on shaky ground with Pedro Strop looking more like his Rangers' enigmatic self as opposed to the often dominating form he showed for the Orioles in 2012.  Yes, the talent was there, but they were not productively using it and the team was seeing their playoff opportunity fade.

On the Cubs' side, Scott Feldman was emerging with one of the better pitching performances in the National League.  With a 3.46 ERA, he looked to some to be a decent option as a front end or middle rotation starter on a playoff club.  It was a performance that was not wholly unexpected, but one that certainly was not especially exceptional.  Still, h appeared to be one of the shining arms available on the market.

What happened is that the Cubs wound up running away with this deal.  The international money helped them avoid penalties for their amateur spending.  Strop has put in very good 2013 and 2014 campaigns.  Arrieta has emerged as a good starter who could a no hitter when the moment strikes him.  For the Orioles, Scott Feldman produced below average production for the rest of the season and Clevenger has performed at a replacement player level.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: This deal is about the Orioles giving up on a good international prospect or two along with two pitchers full of promise and irritation in exchange for more catcher fodder and a backend rotation arm.  It is an improvement as it means no more Freddy Garcia, but not a great one that will change the fortune of this club.  They would be better off using Strop in mopup duty and giving Arrieta more time to sort himself out whether it being in Baltimore or in Norfolk.
Conclusion: -4.2 bWAR; Cubs

July 12, 2013
INF Russ Canzler for RHP Tim Alderson

There is not much to say about this trade.  Canzler was a bit redundant in the Orioles organization with the club already employing marginal right handed bats without much fielding acumen in Steve Pearce and Danny Valencia.  The Pirates however wanted more depth there in case they needed a bat for their bench.  Alderson was more or less a decent organizational bullpen arm.  The Orioles had been shuttling pitchers through Norfolk trying to catch lightning in a bottle ever since saying goodbye to Pedro Strop and maybe something would click with Alderson.

Neither player played in the Majors for the other club.  Canzler is currently being a professional hitter with the Phillies on their AAA squad while Alderson has struggled greatly this year in Norfolk before being given his release.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: No comment.
Conclusion: 0 bWAR; Push

July 23, 2013
INF Nick Delmonico for RHP Francisco Rodriguez

Salt was in the wound.  The Orioles dealt out Strop as part of the package for Scott Feldman.  At this point, Feldman was struggling and Strop had found his form again.  More so, the Orioles had trouble with their bullpen options.  Their fourth right handed option was largely Jairo Ascencio and that was not working out well.  Meanwhile, the postseason hopes of the Brewers fanbase had been dashed and the club was looking to deal out pieces.  Francisco Rodriguez was enjoying a stellar two months after being promoted to the Majors just before his opt out clause would go into effect.  He had had a rough go of it the year before with the Brewers and had issues with violence toward teammates and his family.  That said, he was effectively performing at a low cost and that is what baseball teams like to see.

Delmonico has been a bit shaky with the Brewers and has yet to escape HiA ball.  He is not bad, but the odds grow longer each day of him being a meaningful big leaguer.  Rodriguez wound up being wholely less than average for the Orioles, giving up the long ball a bit too often.  He did not meaningfully impact the Orioles', which was to be expected because they were simply upgrading their fourth righthander in the pen.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: Delmonico does not need to be a meaningful prospect to have value.  I’d suggest that his ability to augment a trade package is probably worth more than him being traded straight up for a reliever who at best makes the 2013 Orioles a +1 win team.  It is difficult to ever know what is possible in trades and it is an illness in the brain that us followers of the game tend to want to believe in an abundance of trade opportunities, but I do think that a package of Delmonico plus one would likely bring back to the Orioles a player of greater importance than Rodriguez.  Of course, this contention is somewhat unfair.  It is difficult for the addition of Rodriguez to stand up against a comparison of something that does not exist.  The vagueness of the unknown is certainly a draw for many to embrace and questioning Oriole front office authority has been a talent that has been thoroughly developed over the past decade and a half.  That said, I maintain that the health of the franchise is better served when second tier prospects are stacked instead of being doled out one at a time. 
Conclusion: 0.1 bWAR; Push

July 31, 2013
Josh Hader, LJ Hoes and competitive draft pick for Bud Norris

The Orioles at this point were still in a discussion for the playoffs and still needed rotation help.  Feldman was a sure starter every five days, but had not been putting the team in a position to win.  The Astros were an awful team and had an expensive player in Bud Norris who was also in his arbitration years.  He had broken out somewhat to be considered a mid-rotation arm on a playoff team.  Their original asking price of a top 25 prospect was steadily depreciating as the deadline neared.  The Orioles offered MLB filler in LJ Hoes, a highly valued competitive draft pick, and a low probability, high upside arm in Josh Hader.

Norris would up pitching rather poorly for the Orioles in 2013 and has really been only been somewhat average this year with some disconcerting peripherals.  For the Astros, Hoes has been a useful stand-in as an outfielder and the competitive draft pick helped buffer the team's misplay of not signing major pieces of their draft.  That said, the low probability high upside arm of Josh Hader has been all upside this summer.  Some scouts are thinking he has established himself as a top 100 pitching prospect.  Maybe that is a worthwhile cost for being able to employ Bud Norris, but it would be possible to imagine that Hader might be off limits in a deal now.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: This is a team in need of a push and the play of Norris is unlikely to be much better than what a random collection of arms from Norfolk could produce.  You could argue that these moves are for stability and to shore up against potential injuries in the stretch run.  I would argue that would make sense for a team that sat slightly comfortably in first place. That team is not the Orioles.  Maybe that is the new inefficiency and Duquette figured it out before everyone else.  To me, it looks like a Dutch boy sticking a finger in the dike when doing nothing probably has the same result.
Conclusion: 0.6 bWAR; Push

August 30, 2013
OF Xavier Avery for UTL Mike Morse

The Orioles had about a 1 in 7 chance to make the playoffs as August drew to a close.  They were in need of a pick-me-up to improve their chances, but that was a hard thing to find past the unrestricted trade deadline.  They now had to sort through various broken and overpaid pieces to find something.  That thing was Mike Morse, a player who had made a living off of one good year.  At that point in time, he was terrible with the Mariners as he had a known leg injury that sidelined him, but was hiding a wrist injury.  The Orioles held a speedy potential fourth outfielder piece in Xavier Avery that the Mariners could use in their cavernous park.

Morse wound up hurt the Orioles' chances by about a game.  It was a poor move to make and giving him time to show how bad he would be ate into the ability of other right handers on the club who had already shown they could hit.  Avery had a decent time finishing the year in Tacoma, was designated for assignment without anyone claiming him, and now has been on a month long tear at Tacoma.  Interestingly enough, he has actually been mentioned in trade rumors as a complimentary piece in the Mariners' attempts to get into the playoffs.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: I think this is a meh deal, but that it was a marginally bad deal in a greater context.  Right handed hitting opportunities were available for cheaper in terms of money and prospects than what the Orioles wound up paying.  They gave up on a marginal prospect (of which they have very few in their system) in exchange for a player who does not seem to be an upgrade over what they already have.  I am not a fan of movement for the sake of movement.  I understand that with the team's playoff chances so low that a bet was a good idea to make.  I simply do not see Morse as the bet I would like to make.
Conclusion: -0.4 bWAR; Push, but -0.4 bWAR is awful in less than a month's play.

Final Tally
-3.8 bWAR

Costing your team four wins is pretty awful, but that margin would not have gotten the club into the playoffs.  It was good to see Duquette move pieces around and try too make things work, but the team basically got Bud Norris for Josh Hader, Pedro Strop, Jake Arrieta, a first round pick, a decent international amateur prospect, and maybe even a more emergent Xavier Avery.  That is quite a difference from the previous season when Duquette squeezed blood from stones.  Of course, 20/20 hindsight makes it easy to see that these moves hurt the Orioles and that the team perhaps could have figured out another way to spell Bud Norris' 0.3 bWAR in 2014.  That said, at the Depot, I certainly was not in favor of any of these deals.  They seemed like deck chair shuffling to me and that has been borne out to be true.

One thing that has amazed me was how much the success of Duquette's first season has created this halo of him in many a fan's eyes.  Yes, it is difficult and I have no idea if a year is a proper sample size to judge how successful a general manager is, but with a sunny 2012 and a stormy 2013 on the trade front it appears that Duquette might be more run of the mill.

Are Defensive 4th Outfielders Scarce? or: Will We Miss Xavier Avery?

Xavier Avery is Running to Second | Photo by Keith Allison

On August 30th last year the Orioles were seven and a half games behind the Boston Red Sox in the race for the American League East Division Crown.  That race was effectively though not mathematically over.  Three years prior, the Red Sox made a show of squandering an eight game September lead when Robert Andino sent Nolan Reimold home as Carl Crawford floundered for a sinking liner in left.  However, that kind of collapse is incredibly rare and not exactly what one plans for.  A more realistic collapse was placing a bet against the Tampa Bay Rays or Oakland Athletics.  Both teams were four games up (a rather far distance to climb in four weeks), but the odds were are least playable that one of those clubs could come across some hard times.

Earlier in the summer, the Orioles addressed weaknesses in their starting rotation by acquiring the solid, but not particularly inspiring, Scott Feldman and Bud Norris.  The Feldman acquisition included catcher Steve Clevenger who is a favorite for the backup catcher position this season and who plated the first run of Spring Training.  The Orioles sent out eternally promising Jake Arrieta and the wildly chaotic Pedro Strop along with their third and fourth international amateur bonus slot money.  Bud Norris came over with the third Astros international amateur bonus slot money in exchange for L.J. Hoes, Josh Hader, and the Orioles' first round competitive balance pick.  All in all, it does not cost much in terms of value.

The Orioles were largely unwilling to send over anything of value in trades last summer.  Perhaps the most value could be found in the international and domestic money slots they sent out as well as L.J. Hoes, if you are one of the few who still think something could come from that swing.  In another deal, the Orioles acquired Francisco Rodriguez for Nicky Delmonico, who would be hard pressed to make anyone's top 10 list due to him not exactly having a position and not exactly being able to square up on a lot of pitches from low minors pitchers.

What the team had not addressed was their designated hitter situation.  Up to that point, the only life they saw from the position was a few games from Danny Valencia pounding left handers.  Beyond him, the club was challenging the record for the fewest runs created in a non-strike season from the DH position.  The Orioles tried hard for two players in the August waiver trade window: Josh Willingham and Michael Morse.  The Twins refused to discuss anything less than Eduardo Rodriguez, so that option faded.  The Mariners were open to dealing the unproductive and often injured Morse to the Orioles for an upper minor leaguer by the name of Xavier Avery.

The complaint we had about this deal was that Morse was not an improvement on anything the team had.  Against left handed pitching, that was certainly true.  Against right handers, Morse from previous seasons would have been pretty useful.  In other words, the bet on Morse was to invest a low value prospect on a chance that Morse was not as injured as he seemed.  Unfortunately, an undisclosed wrist injury (and perhaps his existing injuries) had that bet go bust.  Morse did nothing for the Orioles and actually hurt them in his 30 plate appearances and producing a -35 OPS+.

Which leaves us to wonder, what did the Orioles actually lose in Xavier Avery.  He should not be much of an unknown to those who follow the team.  He was selected in the previous regime as a raw toolsy outfielder with great speed, but poor baseball skills.  He surely progressed through the minors, performing ably but not exceptionally.  At the major league level, he was a poor route runner in the outfield, but made up for that with his speed.  His arm was weak as was his bat.  All that said, he was a capable defender in left field and could play center field for a bit.  His offense was poor, but there was a very slim chance that the 23 year old might be able to do more with his package.  Avery also had an option for the 2015 season, meaning that he could serve as a team's fifth or sixth outfielder without the club being concerned about whether or not he would pass through waivers.

It is difficult to quantify Avery's chances of breaking out.  We could argue quite a while with mathematically derived comps.  I see no point in that.  Instead, let us simply think about current value.  In doing so, I asked ZiPS founder Dan Szymborski for a list of outfielders from which we might be able to figure out who might be comparable base talents to Avery.  I took Dan's projected values for fielding and weighted out to 120 games in the outfield.  I marked Avery as the lowest talent and considered everyone above him as a replacement for him.  In left field, Avery was marked as being a +3.5 run saved defender.  I counted all available left fielders with that defensive rating and above.  I also counted all centerfielders who scored 10 runs worse (-6.5) and better.  I removed all in that group whose bat was projected to be less than Avery's 71 OPS+.  I then also removed all players who were protected by their team this past off season.

That leaves us with this list:

Player	B	Age	PO	OPS+	D/550	Role
Jacoby Ellsbury	L	30	CF	110	7.0	MLB-S
Chris Young	R	30	CF	104	5.5	MLB-S
Ryan Sweeney	L	29	CF	98	-2.2	MLB-B
Andres Torres	B	35	CF	95	5.4	MiL
Casper Wells	R	29	LF	90	10.6	MiL
Jordany Valdespin	L	26	CF	85	-4.0	MiL
Grady Sizemore	L	31	CF	81	-4.6	MLB-B
Sam Fuld	L	32	LF	81	11.9	MiL
Franklin Gutierrez	R	31	CF	78	3.3	MLB-B
Jason Pridie	L	30	CF	76	4.1	MiL
Jake Smolinski	R	25	LF	76	4.5	MiL
Trayvon Robinson	B	26	CF	73	-1.1	MiL
Clete Thomas	L	30	CF	73	1.0	MiL
Laynce Nix	L	33	RF	71	14.2	MiL
Xavier Avery	L	24	LF	71	3.5	MiL

Of those available this off season, Andres Torres and Laynce Nix, to my knowledge, are the only players without teams.  Torres is apparently still suffering from an injury suffered last year.  I am not sure about Nix's reasons.  Ellsbury, Young, Sweeney, Sizemore, and Gutierrez do not adequately fit the role being discussed here because they are quality enough players to be rewarded with MLB contracts.  That leaves eight players that are equal or better than Avery according to this projection.  Two of those eight, Pridie and Robinson, actually played in the Orioles organization last year.  Eight options amongst thirty teams sounds a bit scarce to me.

The above though is not a complete list.  The Orioles wound up finding a backup centerfielder in the Rule 5 draft.  So, who is the giant list of players would have been eligible in the Rule 5?

Player	B	Age	PO	OPS+	D/550	Roster
Julio Borbon	L	28	CF	71	1.4	AA
Thomas Pham	R	26	CF	83	2.7	AAA

That list really is only Borbon.  Pham, being on the AAA roster, would have needed to stay on the active roster for the entire season.  Pham, who we have covered before, has an interesting tool kit, but has suffered from a wide range of unfortunate injuries.  Borbon, placed on the Cubs AA roster, could be had and placed in Norfolk.  Again, though, neither of these players have the luxury of an option assigned to them. 

This should lead us to wonder just how many centerfielders does a team need?  Well, last year, Adam Jones was not injured.  As such, the team employed Nate McLouth, Chris Dickerson, and Jason Pridie in centerfield.  The year before, Adam Jones played every game, but McLouth, Endy Chavez (who was replaced by McLouth), Robert Andino, and Xavier Avery logged innings there.  In 2011, a slightly banged up Adam Jones played 148 games with Matt Angle, Felix Pie, and Kyle Hudson filling in.  In other words, if your center fielder is healthy then it does not matter much who you have in AAA.  That said, a healthy Jones still needed two to three players each year that had to be exposed to waivers.  This suggests that it is important to have a couple players capable of playing centerfield in Norfolk if you do not have a player like Avery that you can shuttle.

All said and done, I think the above illustrates, at least, that Xavier Avery does have value beyond his age.  That he is useful to an organization.  His skill set is not exactly hard to find, nor is it easy to find.  The Orioles wound up replacing him with Julio Borbon, but Borbon was not exactly expected to be present in the Rule 5 draft and the team does not have the luxury of putting him safely on a Norfolk to Baltimore shuttle that Avery's option year would have provided.  But, yeah, this value is slim.  Yes, the value is there and it is real, it just is not a great value.  Seattle though seems to see it.

In the end, that minimal value (and ignoring his slim breakout potential) was considered a value worth lost in exchanged for the potential that Mike Morse had beyond the similar pieces the club already employed.  Yes, we could sit and argue the value of slivers of hair between Morse and Avery probably just as well as we could argue Francisco Rodriguez and Delmonico or, perhaps, we simply could enjoy the sun and some hot chocolate.  The latter is likely a better expenditure of time.

Grading the Addition of the Mariners' Mike Morse

Xavier Avery at Home | photo: Keith Allison

I think in order to be answer that question, we need to answer four other questions.  First, are the Orioles really a playoff contender?  Second, what does the team currently have that Mike Morse is replacing and does the difference impact the probability of this team being a contender?  Third, how valuable is Xavier Avery, the player the Orioles gave up?  Fourth, is Avery's value equal or lesser to what Morse brings to the team.  Now, none of these questions can be definitively answered in a quantitative way, but we certainly can nose around in a qualitative way.

1) Are the Orioles a playoff contender?

Sure.  According to Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds model, the team stands a one in seven shot in making the playoffs, which is far better than the Yankees' one in 25 chance.  To break apart the Orioles' chances, that have roughly a one percent chance to win the division, a two percent chance to take the first wild card, and a ten percent chance for the second wild card.

Here is the relevant playoff table:

Rk	Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB	GBsum	pythWL	Luck	vEast	vCent	vWest	last20	last30
1	TEX	78	55	.587	---	---	76-57	2	13-17	11-15	44-16	15-5	22-8
2	BOS	79	56	.585	---	---	81-54	-2	32-25	14-14	20-12	10-10	17-13
3	DET	78	56	.582	---	---	83-51	-5	16-13	36-22	14-16	10-10	19-11
4	TBR	75	57	.568	---	---	72-60	3	34-29	17-13	12-7	9-11	15-15
5	OAK	75	58	.564	---	---	74-59	1	14-15	16-11	32-25	11-9	15-15
6	BAL	71	61	.538	3.5	3.5	70-62	1	26-27	13-13	21-12	10-10	14-16
7	CLE	71	62	.534	4.0	4.5	70-63	1	10-20	31-26	21-8	9-11	16-14
8	NYY	70	63	.526	5.0	7.5	66-67	4	30-26	19-11	14-16	13-7	16-14
9	KCR	69	64	.519	6.0	11.5	71-62	-2	18-13	34-26	8-14	9-11	17-13

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/30/2013.

With a month to go, 3.5 games is not a big lead.  The general rule I have is weeks to go plus three games back sum.  At this point, the Orioles drop dead number for me would be nine games.  A week from now, eight games.  A week later, seven games.  So on and so forth until fall above that number.  With my little rule, the Royals are gone.  They simply need too many teams to play worse than they are.  Anyway, point being, yes, the Orioles are a playoff contender as we near September.

2. How much does Mike Morse improve the Orioles?

On January 16th, Mike Morse was worth a fair amount.  The Nationals were able to deal away an extra bat that no longer fit on the playing field and get in return a high second tier pitcher in A.J. Cole, a live arm in the pen with Ian Krol (a player the Depot has been slightly optimistic on back during his senior year where he sat a lot), and some organizational depth in Blake Treinen.  For a player who has no position and was coming off a lackluster season (after only really showing much promise for a season and a half prior to that), it was somewhat surprising.  Of course, no one expected him to do so poorly this season.

Year	Age	Tm	PA	2B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
2005	23	SEA	258	10	3	18	50	.278	.349	.370	97
2006	24	SEA	48	5	0	3	7	.372	.396	.488	131
2007	25	SEA	20	2	0	1	4	.444	.500	.556	184
2008	26	SEA	11	1	0	1	4	.222	.364	.333	91
2009	27	WSN	55	3	3	3	16	.250	.291	.481	101
2010	28	WSN	293	12	15	22	64	.289	.352	.519	133
2011	29	WSN	575	36	31	36	126	.303	.360	.550	147
2012	30	WSN	430	17	18	16	97	.291	.321	.470	111
2013	31	SEA	307	13	13	20	80	.226	.283	.410	97

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/30/2013.

Morse has dealt with leg injuries this season and did do a tour on the disabled list with a strained quad.  On May 28th, the injury has become bad enough where the team sat him for a couple weeks.  He was slashing 254/321/468.  He proceeded to struggle in a handful of games in June until he was placed on the DL.  Upon returning, he has slashing in August to the tune of 179/225/328.

In other words, Morse has been really bad and he probably is playing injured.  The hope is that there is a chance that he will be injury free enough to provide value to the team.  There is some cause for hope.  He did produce poorly at SafeCo, which is known to be a pitcher's park (77 wRC+ at home vs. 101 wRC+ on the road).  Additionally, he performed much better against left handed pitching (110 wRC+ against southpaws and 79 wRC+ against righties).  It might not be entirely unfair to think that Morse could be a 120 to 130 wRC+ component of a platooned designated hitter arrangement with the newly arrived Wilson Betemit.

Of course, this solution assumes that both Betemit and Morse are healthy-ish and productive to competently handle their parts of the platoon split, but it is a decent bet to make when you are sitting only three games out of a playoff spot.  This also assumes that the team has nothing else available to fulfill this role.  However, yes, they do have someone: Danny Valencia.

Year	Age	Tm	PA	2B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
2010	25	MIN	322	18	7	20	46	.311	.351	.448	119
2011	26	MIN	608	28	15	40	102	.246	.294	.383	86
2012	27	TOT	161	6	3	3	38	.188	.199	.299	34
2013	28	BAL	89	9	5	5	20	.274	.315	.560	131

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/30/2013.

Yes, Valencia is not a proven veteran like Mike Morse.  However, he has been on fire this year when the team lets him play against left handed pitching.  He has had a 157 wRC+ against righties, hitting them whenever the team somewhat haphazardly asks him to do it.  All in all, unless the team recognizes correctly that Morse is healthy and ready to turn it on, I have a hard time seeing this as an improvement on the roster.  If the long term plan is to keep Valencia on the bench as another right handed hitter, then I have trouble seeing how he can fit because he is pretty atrocious in the field as well.

Morse feels like a solution the same way Jim Thome felt like a solution.  A decent name of a player who has performed somewhat well in the recent past, but probably is no better than what the team currently has.  My thought is that Morse has just as much chance to be healthy and breakout as Valencia does to continue his tear of left handed pitching.

3. How valuable is Xavier Avery?

His minor league statistics to date:

Year	Age	Lev	PA	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2008	18	Rk	192	8	1	0	13	3	10	51	.280	.333	.337
2009	19	A	509	15	8	2	30	10	27	111	.262	.306	.340
2010	20	A+-AA	618	31	6	7	38	14	49	130	.271	.337	.386
2011	21	AA	626	31	2	4	36	14	49	156	.259	.324	.343
2012	22	AAA	458	13	5	8	22	7	51	106	.236	.330	.356
2013	23	AAA-AA	519	22	4	3	29	8	54	117	.259	.340	.345

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/30/2013.

Before the 2012 season, the Depot wrote this about Avery:

Xavier Avery remains an upside prospect with promise, despite completing his third full season with strikeouts in over 20% of his plate appearances. The reason for optimism is simple -- he continues to keep his head above water while being promoted by the O's and remaining one of the youngest players in the league, year-in and year-out. He will start 2012 at age 22, and could get a bump to Norfolk following a solid AFL campaign and provided he shows well in the Spring. A speed-first talent, Avery is among the fastest prospects in the system (along with Kyle Hudson and Glynn Davis -- all "80" runners on the 20/80 scouting scale). His heavy left/right split could spell a future as part of a platoon. If he can tighten-up his routes in center field, he should have easy value as a fourth outfielder. His ability to improve against lefties and to learn to more consistently ID off-speed will determine if he can become a regular at the highest level.

Ceiling: Average starting center fielder on first division team
Floor: Four-A
Projected: 4th or 5th outfielder on first division team

I still think that is a fairly accurate portrayal of Avery.  What I would change would be that I do not see him currently capable of being an average first division centerfielder.  I would downgrade that to starting second division.  The rest I would keep.  In the nearly two years since, his batting approach has improved greatly, but it still is not on par with average AAA hitting.  At age 23, he no longer is the youngest kid on the field most of the time.  In AA, where he is in the mid-age for high profile prospects, he hit very well.  Upon being promoted to AAA this year, he showed the same hit tool issues as he did the year prior.  Add that lack of contact to a dearth of power and it is difficult to see how his bat would provide much use now and only a slight chance of it being useful in the future.

However, he is the kind of player a team would like in its system.  He is a strong, athletic player.  He has 80 speed.  His routes are getter better.  He has shown a decent eye at the plate and has improved his hitting approach.  At 23, he has time and fourth outfielders that can play center field do not grow on trees.  It may be in the cavernous SafeCo that Avery will find himself.  A place where speed may have more value than having a decent bat.  It also leaves the Orioles with a void in that they have no option eligible fourth outfielder capable of filling in centerfield in a pinch as Avery and, before him, L.J. Hoes are now gone.

Again, this is not a huge loss.  It is a very minimal loss.  The value Avery provides is one of a pinch fourth outfielder with a very slight chance of him being a regular bench player.  We are talking about fractions of a win here.  If he somehow hits his ceiling, then we are discussing a player who might be worth a win or two annually for about three or four years.  These are small potatoes.  That said, as we know from before Adam Jones, centerfield is a difficult position to find someone to play there.

4. Did the Orioles get in return a benefit equal to what they gave away?

Probably.  They will likely get nothing and they likely traded nothing away.  In other words, the value that Avery presents to the Orioles now and in the future is a value that likely is quite replaceable.  It is also likely true that the value Morse offers is equivalent to what the team currently has available.  Add in that his presence on the team shaves 1 MM off next year's pay roll and it seems like there are a few paper cuts here.

In all, this move seems like a more expensive move with less probability of an offensive explosion as what could have been had with signing Mark Reynolds.  A few weeks back, I suggested that signing Reynolds would be an excellent cheap bet for him to explode offensively.  The idea being that Reynolds is a player who seems to be a feat or famine kind of hitter and, that at league minimum, it was a pretty cheap bet.  If he did nothing over the following three weeks, you could just cut him and go with what the team has.

Now, Morse has some reputation of being a streaky hitter, but not in the same class as Reynolds.  Additionally, Morse is awful at every defensive position while Reynolds can play first base in a below average way, which is worth something.  Morse is also more susceptible to platoon splits, meaning relief pitchers can adversely affect him more than Reynolds.  Finally, there is no more time for auditioning before the September roster deadline comes into play.

Conclusion

I think this is a meh deal, but that it was a marginally bad deal in a greater context.  Right handed hitting opportunities were available for cheaper in terms of money and prospects than what the Orioles wound up paying.  They gave up on a marginal prospect (of which they have very few in their system) in exchange for a player who does not seem to be an upgrade over what they already have.  I am not a fan of movement for the sake of movement.  I understand that with the team's playoff chances so low that a bet was a good idea to make.  I simply do not see Morse as the bet I would like to make.