The Pros and Cons of Signing Kendrys Morales

The Orioles have a DH problem. This topic was covered in our offseason series, and I've written about the potential acquisition of Billy Butler and the potential signing of Mike Napoli. So far, the O's have only opted to deal one potential DH option away, when they shipped Danny Valencia to the Royals for outfielder David Lough. Valencia was the team's lone bright spot at DH, as Orioles' designated hitters batted a combined .236/.290/.418 last season.

Right now, the O's DH situation looks similar to how it was at the beginning of last season. Steve Pearce and Nolan Reimold, who were both tendered contracts this offseason, each started out last season getting an opportunity to DH. But Pearce (44 games) ended up battling wrist injuries for much of the season, and Reimold (40 games) needed neck surgery for a second time. Pearce and Reimold were supposed to handle the right-handed side of that DH platoon; Wilson Betemit was supposed to provide the left-handed pop. But he sustained a right knee injury in March that required surgery, and although he was able to return in late August, he failed to get a hit in 10 at-bats and was soon designated for assignment.

One potential answer to the team's DH issues is to scrap the DH platoon and just sign Kendrys Morales. Here's Roch Kubatko, expressing an opinion that seems to be popular with plenty of fans:

I want a full-time designated hitter - I'm still beating the Kendrys Morales drum - which allows Reimold to serve as an extra outfielder (and occasional DH) and Henry Urrutia to play every day in left field at Triple-A Norfolk. He's raw and needs the reps.

I agree on Urrutia. I'm not sure he's ready to handle even a part-time role in the majors just yet, and it would not be bad for him to play every day at Norfolk. But let's explore the Morales possibility a bit further.

Kendrys Morales (photo via Keith Allison)

Morales turns 31 in June. In 156 games for the Mariners last year, he hit .277/.336/.449; he also has a career batting line of .280/.333/.480. Morales had a career year at the plate in 2009, finishing with a .387 wOBA while playing all of his 152 games at first base (where he was already a below average defender). In 2010, he was putting up pretty good numbers -- and then this happened:



Morales broke his lower left leg celebrating that grand slam, and he missed the rest of the 2010 season. He needed surgery to repair the injury, and about a year later, he opted for a second surgery after he had yet to fully recover. He missed the entire 2011 season as well. But he battled back, and Morales played in 134 games in 2012 and 156 games in 2013, while mainly DHing and playing occasionally at first base. His offensive numbers did not approach that career-best 2009 season, though: He had a wOBA of .339 in 2012 and .342 in 2013.

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There are obvious reasons why Morales was listed fourth on Dave Cameron's "Land Mines of the 2014 Free Agent Class" post from November. Besides the injury concerns (fair or unfair) listed above, Morales is not a great defender at first base and can no longer handle a full workload at the position; is a liability on the basepaths (career 34.6 baserunning runs below average); is a good but not great hitter who may be in decline; will likely command a two- or three-year deal; and will cost the team that signs him a draft pick because the Mariners extended him a qualifying offer, which he rejected.

Morales, a switch-hitter, is also not particularly adept at hitting left-handed pitching (.318 wOBA). He is much better against right-handed pitching (.359 wOBA). So, because Morales doesn't bring much to the table besides his bat, the O's could instead choose to find a good bat against right-handed pitching elsewhere. They lost a very good option against lefties when they traded Valencia (.380 wOBA vs. LHP) away, but Pearce (.349 wOBA vs. LHP) is effective against them. Unfortunately, he cannot hit right-handed pitching (.276 wOBA). Reimold has hit about the same against both -- .338 wOBA vs. RHP and .327 wOBA vs. LHP. But he is a wild card and should not be counted on to stay healthy.

Do you view Urrutia as a DH option? I don't, but it's possible. What about bringing back Betemit for cheap? As long as he's healthy, Betemit wears out right-handed pitching (.352 wOBA). The O's could then use that saved money to sign a starter and maybe another reliever. I am a bit surprised the Orioles haven't done more yet in free agency, but that will be something to revisit down the road if they don't spend more to fill some holes on the roster.

So what would you prefer? Morales's .359 wOBA vs. RHP and .318 wOBA vs. LHP, no first-round draft pick, and handing him a decent-sized contract? Or Betemit's .352 wOBA vs. RHP and Pearce's .349 wOBA vs. LHP? Betemit is not an option at third base (and maybe not even first base) and can't hit lefties, so he would limit roster flexibility. But he would only receive a one-year deal, and he wouldn't cost a draft pick. Morales is still probably the better option.

Relying on Pearce, Reimold, Betemit, or any other platoonable bat at DH is risky. They are all injury risks, and it's not like there are many other good options at this stage of free agency to bring aboard as competent bench bats. But Morales is far from a sure thing, and while he'd make the O's somewhat better right now, he's also an injury risk, isn't quite as good as fans think, would cost the team a draft pick, and is a more expensive option. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the O's eventually signed him, but I'm not sure they should.

Danny Valencia Is Doing His Best to Fix O's DH Problem

Photo: Keith Allison

For much of the 2013 season, the Orioles have had a designated hitter problem. Nolan Reimold got off to a slow start, never recovered, and needed another operation on his spine. Wilson Betemit, counted on to be the team's main weapon at DH against right-handed pitching, suffered a knee injury during spring training and did not return until late August. He went hitless in 10 at-bats, and he was designated for assignment yesterday. Other Dan Duquette-signed misfits have not fared much better. Steve Pearce, battling a wrist injury all season, has batted just .241/.328/.361 in 122 plate appearances. Chris Dickerson has hit .240/.269/.404 in 108 plate appearances, though he's basically just a defensive replacement. Henry Urrutia's minor league success has not translated to the majors (.276/.276/.310 in 58 plate appearances). Travis Ishikawa, unsurprisingly, wasn't the answer either. And Mike Morse, acquired at the end of August for Xavier Avery, has three hits (all singles) in 24 plate appearances without a walk. As of mid-July, O's designated hitters were batting a combined .197/.261/.382.

None of the above players should really be relied upon to consistently hit major league pitching, but then again you could say the same thing about Danny Valencia, who currently has a batting line of .317/.344/.618 in 128 plate appearances. Valencia, who started the year at Norfolk and has been shipped between Triple-A and the majors a couple times this season, now seems to be locked in as the team's primary DH -- and for good reason. He's been on fire since August, collecting 25 hits (and a walk) in 54 plate appearances. He has absolutely destroyed left-handed pitching this year, hitting a ridiculous .378/.400/.683 in 85 plate appearances. Even Chris Davis has to respect those numbers. In about half as many trips to the plate against righties, Valencia hasn't been efficient at reaching base (.233 OBP), but he has hit for power (.488 SLG). Without Betemit's injury and subsequent ineffectiveness, the two likely would have formed a decent right/lefty DH combination.

Mostly thanks to Valencia's tear, O's DHs are hitting a slightly less embarrassing .230/.287/.413. The on-base percentage is still too low, but the power is there. Maybe the O's can rectify that issue next season.

It probably goes without saying, though, but Valencia is not this good. His .348 BABIP is 53 points above his major league average of .295, and his HR/FB rate is nearly 20% (career rate around 9%). So he's due for some regression, certainly, but there's no reason why he can't continue to hit at an absurd level for just 13 more games, which is what the Orioles really need right now considering they are just two games back in the Wild Card race.

But beyond this season, Valencia still has some value as a lefty masher. And if he continues to not chase pitches out of the zone, which he's currently doing and is more in line with his impressive rookie campaign, he could at least be a competent DH/bench bat.

(Quick tangent: The Orioles are going to have some offseason lineup issues to address. Manny Machado certainly has plenty of upside, but you can't really say that about many other O's hitters. Davis is having an amazing season, but there's no guarantee he posts similar numbers going forward. Adam Jones is steady, and J.J. Hardy is having a nice rebound season. But Nate McLouth is a free agent after this season and likely will not be able to be retained for the previous low price of $2 million. Brian Roberts's deal finally comes off the books, but is Jonathan Schoop ready? And what about the offensive struggles of Matt Wieters and especially Nick Markakis? With those main parts, the O's still have the makings of a decent lineup, but relying on Davis, Machado, and Jones to do most of the heavy lifting may not be wise. Duquette and Buck Showalter may need to consider bringing in a new corner outfielder, second baseman, or another DH option -- or maybe all three.)

Grading the Addition of the Mariners' Mike Morse

Xavier Avery at Home | photo: Keith Allison

I think in order to be answer that question, we need to answer four other questions.  First, are the Orioles really a playoff contender?  Second, what does the team currently have that Mike Morse is replacing and does the difference impact the probability of this team being a contender?  Third, how valuable is Xavier Avery, the player the Orioles gave up?  Fourth, is Avery's value equal or lesser to what Morse brings to the team.  Now, none of these questions can be definitively answered in a quantitative way, but we certainly can nose around in a qualitative way.

1) Are the Orioles a playoff contender?

Sure.  According to Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds model, the team stands a one in seven shot in making the playoffs, which is far better than the Yankees' one in 25 chance.  To break apart the Orioles' chances, that have roughly a one percent chance to win the division, a two percent chance to take the first wild card, and a ten percent chance for the second wild card.

Here is the relevant playoff table:

Rk	Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB	GBsum	pythWL	Luck	vEast	vCent	vWest	last20	last30
1	TEX	78	55	.587	---	---	76-57	2	13-17	11-15	44-16	15-5	22-8
2	BOS	79	56	.585	---	---	81-54	-2	32-25	14-14	20-12	10-10	17-13
3	DET	78	56	.582	---	---	83-51	-5	16-13	36-22	14-16	10-10	19-11
4	TBR	75	57	.568	---	---	72-60	3	34-29	17-13	12-7	9-11	15-15
5	OAK	75	58	.564	---	---	74-59	1	14-15	16-11	32-25	11-9	15-15
6	BAL	71	61	.538	3.5	3.5	70-62	1	26-27	13-13	21-12	10-10	14-16
7	CLE	71	62	.534	4.0	4.5	70-63	1	10-20	31-26	21-8	9-11	16-14
8	NYY	70	63	.526	5.0	7.5	66-67	4	30-26	19-11	14-16	13-7	16-14
9	KCR	69	64	.519	6.0	11.5	71-62	-2	18-13	34-26	8-14	9-11	17-13

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/30/2013.

With a month to go, 3.5 games is not a big lead.  The general rule I have is weeks to go plus three games back sum.  At this point, the Orioles drop dead number for me would be nine games.  A week from now, eight games.  A week later, seven games.  So on and so forth until fall above that number.  With my little rule, the Royals are gone.  They simply need too many teams to play worse than they are.  Anyway, point being, yes, the Orioles are a playoff contender as we near September.

2. How much does Mike Morse improve the Orioles?

On January 16th, Mike Morse was worth a fair amount.  The Nationals were able to deal away an extra bat that no longer fit on the playing field and get in return a high second tier pitcher in A.J. Cole, a live arm in the pen with Ian Krol (a player the Depot has been slightly optimistic on back during his senior year where he sat a lot), and some organizational depth in Blake Treinen.  For a player who has no position and was coming off a lackluster season (after only really showing much promise for a season and a half prior to that), it was somewhat surprising.  Of course, no one expected him to do so poorly this season.

Year	Age	Tm	PA	2B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
2005	23	SEA	258	10	3	18	50	.278	.349	.370	97
2006	24	SEA	48	5	0	3	7	.372	.396	.488	131
2007	25	SEA	20	2	0	1	4	.444	.500	.556	184
2008	26	SEA	11	1	0	1	4	.222	.364	.333	91
2009	27	WSN	55	3	3	3	16	.250	.291	.481	101
2010	28	WSN	293	12	15	22	64	.289	.352	.519	133
2011	29	WSN	575	36	31	36	126	.303	.360	.550	147
2012	30	WSN	430	17	18	16	97	.291	.321	.470	111
2013	31	SEA	307	13	13	20	80	.226	.283	.410	97

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/30/2013.

Morse has dealt with leg injuries this season and did do a tour on the disabled list with a strained quad.  On May 28th, the injury has become bad enough where the team sat him for a couple weeks.  He was slashing 254/321/468.  He proceeded to struggle in a handful of games in June until he was placed on the DL.  Upon returning, he has slashing in August to the tune of 179/225/328.

In other words, Morse has been really bad and he probably is playing injured.  The hope is that there is a chance that he will be injury free enough to provide value to the team.  There is some cause for hope.  He did produce poorly at SafeCo, which is known to be a pitcher's park (77 wRC+ at home vs. 101 wRC+ on the road).  Additionally, he performed much better against left handed pitching (110 wRC+ against southpaws and 79 wRC+ against righties).  It might not be entirely unfair to think that Morse could be a 120 to 130 wRC+ component of a platooned designated hitter arrangement with the newly arrived Wilson Betemit.

Of course, this solution assumes that both Betemit and Morse are healthy-ish and productive to competently handle their parts of the platoon split, but it is a decent bet to make when you are sitting only three games out of a playoff spot.  This also assumes that the team has nothing else available to fulfill this role.  However, yes, they do have someone: Danny Valencia.

Year	Age	Tm	PA	2B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
2010	25	MIN	322	18	7	20	46	.311	.351	.448	119
2011	26	MIN	608	28	15	40	102	.246	.294	.383	86
2012	27	TOT	161	6	3	3	38	.188	.199	.299	34
2013	28	BAL	89	9	5	5	20	.274	.315	.560	131

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/30/2013.

Yes, Valencia is not a proven veteran like Mike Morse.  However, he has been on fire this year when the team lets him play against left handed pitching.  He has had a 157 wRC+ against righties, hitting them whenever the team somewhat haphazardly asks him to do it.  All in all, unless the team recognizes correctly that Morse is healthy and ready to turn it on, I have a hard time seeing this as an improvement on the roster.  If the long term plan is to keep Valencia on the bench as another right handed hitter, then I have trouble seeing how he can fit because he is pretty atrocious in the field as well.

Morse feels like a solution the same way Jim Thome felt like a solution.  A decent name of a player who has performed somewhat well in the recent past, but probably is no better than what the team currently has.  My thought is that Morse has just as much chance to be healthy and breakout as Valencia does to continue his tear of left handed pitching.

3. How valuable is Xavier Avery?

His minor league statistics to date:

Year	Age	Lev	PA	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2008	18	Rk	192	8	1	0	13	3	10	51	.280	.333	.337
2009	19	A	509	15	8	2	30	10	27	111	.262	.306	.340
2010	20	A+-AA	618	31	6	7	38	14	49	130	.271	.337	.386
2011	21	AA	626	31	2	4	36	14	49	156	.259	.324	.343
2012	22	AAA	458	13	5	8	22	7	51	106	.236	.330	.356
2013	23	AAA-AA	519	22	4	3	29	8	54	117	.259	.340	.345

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/30/2013.

Before the 2012 season, the Depot wrote this about Avery:

Xavier Avery remains an upside prospect with promise, despite completing his third full season with strikeouts in over 20% of his plate appearances. The reason for optimism is simple -- he continues to keep his head above water while being promoted by the O's and remaining one of the youngest players in the league, year-in and year-out. He will start 2012 at age 22, and could get a bump to Norfolk following a solid AFL campaign and provided he shows well in the Spring. A speed-first talent, Avery is among the fastest prospects in the system (along with Kyle Hudson and Glynn Davis -- all "80" runners on the 20/80 scouting scale). His heavy left/right split could spell a future as part of a platoon. If he can tighten-up his routes in center field, he should have easy value as a fourth outfielder. His ability to improve against lefties and to learn to more consistently ID off-speed will determine if he can become a regular at the highest level.

Ceiling: Average starting center fielder on first division team
Floor: Four-A
Projected: 4th or 5th outfielder on first division team

I still think that is a fairly accurate portrayal of Avery.  What I would change would be that I do not see him currently capable of being an average first division centerfielder.  I would downgrade that to starting second division.  The rest I would keep.  In the nearly two years since, his batting approach has improved greatly, but it still is not on par with average AAA hitting.  At age 23, he no longer is the youngest kid on the field most of the time.  In AA, where he is in the mid-age for high profile prospects, he hit very well.  Upon being promoted to AAA this year, he showed the same hit tool issues as he did the year prior.  Add that lack of contact to a dearth of power and it is difficult to see how his bat would provide much use now and only a slight chance of it being useful in the future.

However, he is the kind of player a team would like in its system.  He is a strong, athletic player.  He has 80 speed.  His routes are getter better.  He has shown a decent eye at the plate and has improved his hitting approach.  At 23, he has time and fourth outfielders that can play center field do not grow on trees.  It may be in the cavernous SafeCo that Avery will find himself.  A place where speed may have more value than having a decent bat.  It also leaves the Orioles with a void in that they have no option eligible fourth outfielder capable of filling in centerfield in a pinch as Avery and, before him, L.J. Hoes are now gone.

Again, this is not a huge loss.  It is a very minimal loss.  The value Avery provides is one of a pinch fourth outfielder with a very slight chance of him being a regular bench player.  We are talking about fractions of a win here.  If he somehow hits his ceiling, then we are discussing a player who might be worth a win or two annually for about three or four years.  These are small potatoes.  That said, as we know from before Adam Jones, centerfield is a difficult position to find someone to play there.

4. Did the Orioles get in return a benefit equal to what they gave away?

Probably.  They will likely get nothing and they likely traded nothing away.  In other words, the value that Avery presents to the Orioles now and in the future is a value that likely is quite replaceable.  It is also likely true that the value Morse offers is equivalent to what the team currently has available.  Add in that his presence on the team shaves 1 MM off next year's pay roll and it seems like there are a few paper cuts here.

In all, this move seems like a more expensive move with less probability of an offensive explosion as what could have been had with signing Mark Reynolds.  A few weeks back, I suggested that signing Reynolds would be an excellent cheap bet for him to explode offensively.  The idea being that Reynolds is a player who seems to be a feat or famine kind of hitter and, that at league minimum, it was a pretty cheap bet.  If he did nothing over the following three weeks, you could just cut him and go with what the team has.

Now, Morse has some reputation of being a streaky hitter, but not in the same class as Reynolds.  Additionally, Morse is awful at every defensive position while Reynolds can play first base in a below average way, which is worth something.  Morse is also more susceptible to platoon splits, meaning relief pitchers can adversely affect him more than Reynolds.  Finally, there is no more time for auditioning before the September roster deadline comes into play.

Conclusion

I think this is a meh deal, but that it was a marginally bad deal in a greater context.  Right handed hitting opportunities were available for cheaper in terms of money and prospects than what the Orioles wound up paying.  They gave up on a marginal prospect (of which they have very few in their system) in exchange for a player who does not seem to be an upgrade over what they already have.  I am not a fan of movement for the sake of movement.  I understand that with the team's playoff chances so low that a bet was a good idea to make.  I simply do not see Morse as the bet I would like to make.