Midseason update: Top 25 Prospects, Orioles vs. Depot

Introduction
This is the fourth and final part of our midseason update on the state of the Orioles system.  Through parts 1 through 3, we looked at a revised Orioles top 25 prospect list (1 - 10 / 11 - 20 / 21 - 25).  We conclude the series with a comparison against the Shadow System that Camden Depot has assembled over the past five drafts.  For a recap on the Shadow System, you can click here for all of our entries tagged "Shadow System".

Summary of top 25 prospects, Orioles vs. Depot
The grades in this table are a loose tiering, with Tier 1 being potential impact talents, Tier 2 being potential everyday contributors, and Tier 3 being fringe MLB contributors. 

Point Orioles
Baltimore will, by most accounts, have two of the top 10 prospects in in minor leagues come "prospect ranking season" this winter -- Dylan Bundy (rhp, Class A-Adv. Frederick) and Manny Machado (ss, Double-A Bowie).  These two players represent the largest financial investments Baltimore has made in the draft during the Camden Depot Shadow Draft/Shadow System project.  The returns on these two investments have been solid thus far, and each look poised to potentially start adding some MLB value as early as 2013.

Conversely, we went a higher-ceiling/lower-probability talent in Derek "Bubba" Starling (of, Rookie Burlington), who is currently raking in the Appy Rookie League, but remains a good three years away in all likelihood.  Our "safe" high ceiling selection of Anthony Rendon (3b, Class A-SS Auburn) started the season with Class A-Adv. Potomac but lasted just two games before being sidelined for most of 2012 with another injury.  When healthy, Rendon is a potential monster and advanced enough to quickly move up the ranks.  The question remains whether he can stay on the field long enough to realize his immense upside.  Finally, our international "big fish" Miguel Sano (3b, Class A Beloit) has shown some of the best power in the minors, but remains a number of evolutions away from being ready to tackle upper-level pitching.

In short, the Bundy/Machado vs. Starling/Rendon battle has just started, but the Orioles duo is comfortably ahead at this point.  Time will tell if the additional investment in Sano turns out to be a nice pickup for the Depot, or just the next in a growing list of international bonus babies that fail to provide a worthy return on investment.

Point Depot
Zack Wheeler (rhp, Triple-A Buffalo) was promoted last week and now sits one phone call away from breaking through into the Majors.  Our selection of Wheeler in contrast to Baltimore's selection of Matt Hobgood (rhp, Unassigned) is a clear point to the Depot's process.  Wheeler may not get a cup of coffee this year, but seems ready to compete for a spot in the Mets rotation next April.

Looking at the Tier 1 talents in each system, the Depot has a little more volume up top, which spreads some of the risk of attrition that is generally found even among top prospects.  Bundy and Machado are currently the top two talents of the eight listed, but having a little more depth probably frees up the Depot system to include a Tier 1 talent or two in trade without striking a heavy blow to the overall quality of the system. 

Finally, the Depot system appears a little deeper in Tier 2 talent.  This is not a huge deal, but it does accomplish the same things that the Tier 1 depth accomplishes, on a slightly smaller scale.  First, it is a weapon against general prospect attrition, particularly on the pitching side.  Second, it frees up pieces to potentially be included in trades, with system depth an issue sure to be discussed come this winter when the Orioles are looking to acquire talent for a 2013 run.

Already contributing
For Baltimore, Xavier Avery (of, Triple-A Norfolk) has already received his first taste of big league action this summer.  He and L.J. Hoes (of, Triple-A Norfolk) should be in a position to compete for a spot on the 25-man roster in 2013.  Both can be fringe regulars, with Hoes having the better chance at growing into a true first division starter off the strength of his bat.  Outside of those two, Baltimore is looking primarily at relief arms as the next most likely to reach The Bigs -- Mike Wright (rhp, Double-A Bowie) and Mike Belfiore (lhp, Double-A Bowie) are probably closest, with Clayton Schrader (rhp, Double-A Bowie) capable of making the jump next year provided he finds a little more consistency.

On the Depot side, Brandon Crawford (ss, San Francisco Giants) is in the midst of his first full season at the MLB level, serving as essentially a glove-only shortstop.  Over 161 total Major League games, Crawford has amassed 1.7 rWAR and 1.2fWAR.  Earlier this month, Josh Rutledge (ss, Colorado Rockies) received his first call-up the Majors, and has been highly productive since arriving. Through 71 plate appearances over 17 games, Rutledge has a triple-slash line of .382/.394/.706, with 12 of his 26 hits going for extra bases.  His on-base percentage will likely be driven by average, but his bat-to-ball skills are solid enough to make it work (and he will certainly walk more than he has thus far).

Waiting in the wings for the Depot are Zack Wheeler (discussed above) and Roger Kieschnick (of, Triple-A Fresno).  Outside of those two, the Depot's talent is probably another year away from contributing at the MLB level, with the note that Rendon has the ability to break-in during the 2013 season if he stays healthy (though it's doubtful Washington would push him that hard).  Overall, Wheeler is the best soon-to-be-promoted prospect between the two lists.  Rutledge gets a small edge over Avery and Hoes as an up-the-middle talent with the bat to start and the glove to stick at a middle-infield position. Kieschnick and Crawford each slot in slightly behind the Hoes/Avery duo.

Investment delta; comparison moving forward
As noted in our earlier examination of the Shadow Drafts, and the current Shadow System Top 25, the Depot spent about $5.7 MM more in the draft over the past five seasons than did the Orioles. Additionally, the Depot signed Miguel Sano for $3.6 MM, bringing the total investment delta up to about $9.3 MM, or $1.14 MM more a year on average in the draft between 2008 and 2012, and a lump payment of $3.6 during the 2009 off-season.

With Avery, Hoes, Crawford, Rutledge, Wheeler, and Kieschnick all likely to get significant MLB time next year, and the younger draftees accumulating more of a track record in the minors, 2013 should be the first year where we can sit down and start to really compare returns on investment.

As we try to note this as often as possible, the concept of a Shadow Draft and Shadow System is not to try and determine whether our process is better or worse than the process in Baltimore.  It is simply an attempt to put into practice the ideas we put forth on this website.  Hopefully, we do okay for ourselves, and along the way are able to provide some hard evidence as to why you might put some weight into our thoughts on prospects moving forward.

In any event, we hope you enjoy following the Shadow System with us, and encourage you to share your thoughts on what we've done over the past five drafts.

Midseason update: Top 25 Orioles Prospect Links
1 - 10 / 11 - 20 / 21 - 25 / vs The Depot

Midseason update: Top 25 Orioles Prospects (21- 25 and five to know)

The second part of our midseason update 25 double-feature rolls out below, covering prospects 21 through 25, plus five more to keep tabs on for the rest of the year and 2013 and one prospect that may be ready for a significant developmental change.  For a look at prospects 1 through 20 check out Part 1 (1 - 10) and Part 2 (11 - 20) of this series.  All ages listed are as of July 15, 2012:

21. John Ruettiger (of, Double-A Bowie) / Age: 22y10m / Prev. Rank: Unranked
We noted last fall that Ruettiger needed to adopt a "top of the order mentality" at the plate in order to carve-out a productive professional career. Thus far in 2012, he has done just that, seeing a big bump in his on-base production while maintaining is contact ability.  With a recent promotion to Double-A Bowie, Ruettiger is setting himself up for a chance to reach Triple-A Norfolk as soon as Hoes and Avery are vacated to either the 25-man roster or another organization.  Ruettiger still likely profiles best as an extra outfielder with a bottom-third bat, but if he continues to put together productive at bats, he could see a bump in his projection. His upside will always be limited by his utter lack of pop, so defense and getting on-base will need to be his calling cards.

22. Mike Belfiore (lhp, Double-A Bowie) / Age: 23y9m / Prev. Rank: N/A
Belfiore made the full conversion to relief work this year and has taken quickly to the role, carving-up the hitter friendly Cal League before being shipped to Baltimore in exchange for struggling Triple-A corner bat Josh Bell.  A closer at Boston College, the Diamondbacks looked to parlay his starter's build and solid 1-2 fastball-slider combo into a potential #4 arm, but the starter workload has proven to be too much for the lefty.  He currently sports a solid average change-up that can flash above-average and gives him the requisite weapon to work to both righties and lefties.  Given the state of the O's system, Belfiore could be a top 15 prospect if he continues to thrive at Bowie, and could break camp with the O's in 2013.

23. Tyler Townsend (1b, Double-A Bowie) / Age: 24y2m / Prev. Rank: 21
Townsend has yet to stay on the field for more than 72 games in a single season since starting his professional career in 2009, once again missing significant time this summer having logged just 170 plate appearances in 43 games.  The left-swinging first baseman can tantalize with solid pop (both 6'o'clock and in-game), but there's a fair amount of swing-and-miss to his game to go along with it.  Because he can't seem to stay on the field, it's tough to get an accurate gauge as to what Townsend's potential truly is.  He will turn 25 early next year, so Baltimore has little choice but to start pushing him up the ladder in hopes that they can realize some return on investment. 

 24. Zach Davies (rhp, Class A Delmarva) / Age: 19y5m / Prev. Rank: Unranked
Were it not for his lack of projection (both in physicality and in stuff), Davies would rank much higher on this list.  He is a pitchability arm with four workable offerings that could each be average after some maturation and refinement.  His fastball can come with some bore, but lacks plane or angle due to his compact frame and wingspan.  He shows aptitude for each of his secondaries considering age, but none project as a true swing-and-miss pitch at the upper levels.  The upside appears to be that of a #5 starter -- perhaps a #4 if everything breaks right.  More likely, he profiles as an up-and-down swing man capable of logging some innings out of the pen when needed, but lacking the stuff to turn over a line-up more than once.

25. Dan Klein (rhp, Double-A Bowie-DL) / Age: 23y11m / Prev. Rank: 10
In November we pointed out the issues with Baltimore's attempts to develop Klein as a starter, not the least of which is the fact that he had not surpassed 52 innings pitched in a season since he did so back in 2006 between his high school junior spring and summer.  After a SLAP tear in his labrum lead to a pre-mature end to his 2011 season, he lost his entire 2012 campaign after another shoulder procedure was deemed necessary this April.  He still checks-in on this list due to the fact that, when healthy, he is essentially Major League ready as a run-of-the-mill middle-relief arm.  At this point, however, the 24-year old will be happy to stay on the mound for six straight months at any level. 


Five more to know:
Miguel Chalas (rhp, Class A Delmarva) / Age: 20y0m / Prev. Rank: Unranked
Baltimore continues to keep the undersized Chalas in a rotation in an effort to build up endurance and keep the door open for him as a starter.  His whippy arm and inconsistent path make repeatability an issue, particularly with his slurvy breaking ball.  A "young 20", there is time for improvement, though it remains a long shot that he'll stick as a starter for much longer.  He has been hittable in his first year of full season ball, and Baltimore may be best suited to shift him to the pen and let him air it out.

Jaime Esquivel (rhp, Class A-SS Aberdeen) / Age: 20y1m  / Prev. Rank: Unranked
Esquivel was sharp in 2011 between Rookie ball and Short-season Aberdeen, but an extended look at the patient college bats that flood the NY-Penn League post-draft has resulted in a lot of walks and a fair amount of hits.  Esquivel has the body of a starter, but a limited repertoire and, thus far, an inability to locate both in and out of the zone.  He remains an arm of interest, but (like many Orioles prospects this summer) has failed to take the next step forward thus far in 2012.  He will look to finish out 2012 on a high note and will likely tackle Class A Delmarva next year.   

Henry Urrutia (of, unassigned) / Age:25y5m  / Prev. Rank: N/A
Urrutia has thus far been the "premier" Latin American signing for the O's under Dan Duquette's front office, agreeing earlier this month to a minor league contract and a $778,500 signing bonus -- an investment approximately equal to an early-2nd Rounder in the draft.  According to Baseball America, Urrutia profiles as a corner outfielder defensively, but may lack the power generally expected out of that position.  Already 25-years old, the former member of the Cuban national team will likely start his professional career in the States at Double-A Bowie.  His progress in 2013 will be an interesting look into the current scouting philosophies of the organization on the international front -- the validity of which has fallen under heavy scrutiny over the past eight months after some dubious signings (and one very public cancelled signing).

Hector Veloz (3b, Rookie GCL) / Age: 18y5m  / Prev. Rank: Unranked
Veloz was our DSL player of the year for Baltimore in 2011 and could have easily ranked in the top 25 portion of this series.  He is working through the Gulf Coast League (Rookie League) and continues to make strides defensively at the hot corner. His ticket to the Bigs, however, remains his bat.  Still capable of good pull-side power, Veloz needs to work on refining his overall approach in order to increase his square rate and cut down on the number of at bats he gives away.  Veloz is years away from having his ultimate projection determined, but for now he remains one of the true "sleepers" in the system, capable of developing into a legit top 10 organizational talent. 

Aaron Wirsch (lhp, unassigned-DL) / Age: 21y8m / Prev. Rank: Unranked
Wirsch logged just 10 innings last year before suffering a UCL tear in his pitching elbow and undergoing Tommy John surgery.  A projectable lefty out of El Toro HS (Lake Forest, Calif.), Wirsch has already put on close to 25 or 30 pounds since signing with Baltimore.  He is a true wild card, as the the former San Diego Torrero commit has yet to stay on the mound for any significant stretch of time.  Baltimore will hope to see a fresh and rejuvinated arm come spring 2013, and at 21-years old come November, there is still time for Baltimore to run Wirsch out as a starter with a limited innings count in order to determine what they have here.  Highly touted for his raw power as a first baseman back in high school, Baltimore also has the back-up option of working him out on the positional side if all else fails.

Switch it up:
Mychal Givens (rhp, Class A Delmarva) / Age: 22y2m / Prev. Rank: Unranked
It is officially time for Baltimore to waive the white flag on the "Givens as an infielder" project.  The former Plant HS (Tampa, Fla.) closer was able to hit the mid-90s as a prep arm, with the makings of a workable slider.  Fall Instructionals and Winter Ball should be utilized to try the now-22-year old on the bump -- it may be the only hope the organization has at recovering some of the 2nd Round investment made.

Midseason update: Top 25 Orioles Prospect Links
1 - 10 / 11 - 20 / 21 - 25 / vs The Depot 

Midseason udpated: Top 25 Orioles Prospects (11 - 20)

We started off our midseason Top 25 update with Orioles prospects 1 through 10.  Today we finish the list, starting with 11 through 20. This afternoon we'll post 21 through 25 and some other names to know.  Here's the next ten; once again, all ages as of 7/15/2012:

11. Eduardo Rodriguez (rhp, Class A Delmarva) / Age: 19y3m / Prev. Rank: 14
Rodriguez has held his own as a 19-year old in full season ball and still has the potential to see a bump in his stuff as he continues to mature.  That bump will be necessary if he's to grow into more than a back-end arm.  He continues to search for consistency with his breaker, and his change-up remains a work-in-progress, but generally he has shown a solid degree of comfort with his three offerings.  Working the strikezone well, he needs to see one of his pitches evolve into a put-away offering or he could prove to be more hittable as he progresses up the ladder.

12. Clayton Schrader (Double-A Bowie) / Age: 22y2m / Prev. Rank: 9
Schrader has not taken the next step forward in 2012, instead remaining the power relief arm we saw over the past two seasons. Currently struggling through his first taste of Double-A, Clay-Schray spent the first half of the season as an unhittable, albeit wild, weapon out of the pen for the Class A-Adv. Keys.  The formula for future success remains the same -- find more consistency in his release and the walks will come down.  For now, he remains a high-risk, solid-upside reliever.

13. Adrian Marin (ss/2b, complex ball) / Age: 18y4m / Prev. Rank: N/A
Many area scouts viewed Marin as a good fit for college, with a chance to go a little higher in the draft after some refinement at the "U" in Coral Gables than he was expected to go in 2012 (4th or 5th Round.  Baltimore saw Marin as pro-ready and popped him in the top o f the 3rd Round, making Marin's college/pro decision an easy one. In the infield he projects as a second baseman, though his limited physicality may push him to center field where his straight line foot speed, average arm and below-average power might play better.  He has quick hands but some mechanical quirks that could take some time and instruction to smooth out.  While his skillset doesn't project to an impact talent, he scores highly in make-up and coachability, giving Baltimore a malleable piece of clay to work with.

14. Lex Rutledge (lhp, complex ball) / Age: 21y0m / Prev. Rank: N/A
Rutledge is similar in profile to Schrader, coming from the left side instead of the right.  While he has experience starting in college, he has always been most effective as a reliever, where his fastball gains some "umph" in short bursts, sitting in the mid-90s.  His breaker is a 1-to-7 curve that can be devastating as a chase pitch, but which he can struggle mightily to command.  Like Kline, Rutledge will be an interesting project for Peterson & Co. to tackle, as mechanical tweaks will be required in order for him to find enough consistency to succeed at the upper-levels.  His upside is that of a set-up man.

15. Christian Walker (1b, Class A-SS Aberdeen) / Age: 21y3m / Prev. Rank: N/A
Walker is a divisive prospect for upper-tier evaluators, but was generally loved by area scouts who had the pleasure of watching him on a South Carolina team that came within a game of a College World Series three-peat during Walker's tenure at first base.  We know Walker understands the strikezone well and is battle tested in the SEC. What we don't know is how well his power tool will develop once he makes the switch to wood and starts squaring off against advanced pro pitching. He should finish 2012 with Class A-SS Aberdeen and could jump to Class A-Adv. Frederick if he impresses during Fall Instructs and Minor League Camp.  His limited offensive profile projects him as a tweener at first base, as there are few indications that there is significantly more raw power to coax from his bat.

16. Jason Esposito (3b, Class A Delmarva) / Age: 21y11m / Prev. Rank: 8
The raw physical tools for success remain present in Esposito, but unfortunately his historical struggles with wood bats have continued to manifest through his first pro season.  Espo has the glove to develop into an everyday third baseman at the Major League level, but his bat remains an empty asset at this point.  The best thing for Esposito would be to string together a solid final month and forget 2012 ever happened.  Baltimore will need to utilize Fall Instructs to figure out what is broken and whether or not it can be fixed. 

17. Glynn Davis (of, Class A Delmarva) / Age: 20y7m / Prev. Rank: 13
Davis remains a projectable talent, but 2012 hasn't seen him show much in the way of physical maturation, which is the biggest obstacle he'll need to overcome.  He is a top tier runner, capable of developing into an above-average defensive center fielder in time, but needs to get stronger so as not to have the bat knocked out of his hands at Double-A, Triple-A and eventually in Baltimore.  He has performed reasonably well in his first full season league, but has seen just 16 of his 88 hits go for extra-bases -- a slightly disappointing number considering his foot speed.

18. Michael Wright (rhp, Double-A Bowie) / Age: 22y6m / Prev. Rank: 15
Wright ranked as high as 14th on variations of this list, but ultimately settles in here due to his continuing profile as a middle-reliever with average stuff.  He relies on a sinker/slider combo to produce groundballs, as he doesn't have a true swing-and-miss arsenal.  Development of a dependable off-speed and more in-zone consistency with his fastball will spell the difference between Wright the #4 workhorse, and Wright the 7th inning guy.  He is not far from Major League ready as a bullpen arm, and could get a taste early in 2013 if he shifts to relief.

19. Parker Bridwell (rhp, Class A Delmarva) / Age: 20y11m / Prev. Rank: 7
Bridwell's 2012 has been particularly disappointing, as the projectable righty was well situated to see an uptick in both stuff and results.  Instead, Bridwell has struggled to stay consistent in his stride and arm action, resulting in the same disconcerting BB/9 and SO/9 rates he produced in Delmarva last summer.  If things don't improve quickly, the former over-slot 9th Rounder will end the season a 21-year old still looking for his first taste of success in Class A.  That would be a big blow to a system already thin on impact talent.   

20. Roderick Bernadina (of, Class A-Adv. Frederick) / Age: 19y11m / Prev. Rank: 23
Bernadina held his own in Short-season Aberdeen against older competition and has now been jumped all the way up to Frederick.  It's an aggressive move, but the soon-to-be twenty-year old has the strength to hit more advanced pitching and has improved his approach and mechanics at the plate in 2012, including shortening his swing path some.  The power isn't manifesting in-game, yet, but he still projects to above-average playable pop if he can square enough balls.  Bernadina remains a low probability talent, but there is potential here for a solid corner bat if things break right.  
UPDATE: Bernadina was sent down to Class A Delmarva today -- a reasonable assignment given age and track record.  He should be expected to finish out the season at that level.

Midseason update: Top 25 Orioles Prospect Links
1 - 10 / 11 - 20 / 21 - 25 / vs The Depot 

Midseason update: Top 25 Orioles Prospects (1 - 10)

As promised, today we begin our updated top 25 prospects for Baltimore, post-2012 draft signings.  We'll tackle 1 through 10 today, 11 through 20 tomorrow, and 21 through 25 plus five more names to know on Friday. Over the weekend, we'll compare the completed list to our Shadow System. 

For now, here's the list with quick notes on each player (all ages as of 7/15/2012):

1. Dylan Bundy (rhp, Class A-Adv. Frederick) / Age: 19y8m / Prev. Rank: 1
Not the generational talent portrayed on fan sites (and even some mainstream media sites) during his breeze through Class A Delmarva, but certainly among the best arms in the minors. He has all the makings of a front-end starter, save for traditional size. Class A-Adv. Frederick appears to be a solid fit for the uber-talented Bundy, putting him in line for an opening series start for the Birds in 2014, and perhaps a debut some time next summer.

2. Manny Machado (ss, Double-A Bowie) / Age: 20y0m / Prev. Rank: 2
Like Bundy, the hype outdistanced Machado's OFP (overall future potential -- scouting scale) early in his career, but the young phenom is gradually refining into a future impact player on the left side of the infield. His retention of agility as he adds strength has been a bonus, and the next twelve months will help determine where on the diamond he breaks in with Baltimore (likely at some point in 2013).

3. Kevin Gausman (rhp, unassigned) / Age: 21y6m / Prev. Rank: N/A
Baltimore's first round selection in the 2012 draft (fourth overall selection) has an impact arsenal and has shown a proclivity for absorbing instruction over the past two years at LSU. His progression is unlikely to be linear, but the finished product could be a legit #1 or #2 starter. He should have limited pro exposure this summer, and will likely start 2013 with Class A-Adv. Frederick.

4. Jonathan Schoop (2b, Double-A Bowie) / Age: 20y9m / Prev. Rank: 3
Last November we noted that the distance between Schoop and Machado is smaller than the distance between Bundy and Machado. While Machado's defense has surpassed our expectations, we stand by the statement...for now. Schoop has the chance to round into an above-average offensive-minded second baseman and, like Machado, could make his first appearance with the O's as early as next year.

5. L.J. Hoes (of, Triple-A Norfolk) / Age: 22y4m / Prev. Rank: 5
Hoes was a top 10 Orioles prospect for the Depot after being drafted, and while we were met with some raised eyebrows then our faith in his bat seems to have been well placed. Hoes has fringy coverage for a center fielder -- particularly in a park like OPACY, and most likely fits in as a left fielder at the Major League level. He profiles as a solid regular and a fringe-starter on a tier one team. While the ceiling is limited, the probability is high.

6. Nicky Delmonico (1b, Class A Delmarva) / Age: 20y0m / Prev. Rank: 6
Delmonico very much remains the player he was when drafted -- high power potential, some aptitude with the hit tool, solid athleticism at the corner, and probably not quite enough arm to play clean across the diamond. If limited to first base, the former Tennessee prep star will need to continue to hone his plate coverage and discipline so as to allow the raw power in his stick to manifest. He is still a long ways off, but there is some upside here.

7. Xavier Avery (of, Triple-A Norfolk) / Age: 22y7m / Prev. Rank: 11
Avery took a very nice step forward this year, offensively, showing a more disciplined approach at the plate that appears to be a product of a little more comfort and a tighter swing plane allowing the ball to travel a little deeper. He can still take less-than-optimal routes in the outfield, but has the footspeed to cover lots and lots of grass. The hit tool is still a question, but if he can continue to grow the delta between batting average and on-base percentage, he could develop into an every day player. Currently, he still projects as a fourth outfielder, but the flop risk seems to have dissipated.

8. Branden Kline (rhp, complex ball) / Age: 20y10m / Prev. Rank: N/A
Kline is a tough player to project, given we aren't quite sure what Baltimore has in store for him. Public statements from the front office indicate that he is to be made a starter, which obviously lengthens his developmental curve. It will be interesting to see how the Peterson program is implemented with regards to Kline, who currently sports the standard "UVA-crouch" delivery. As a starter, Kline could be a mid-rotation arm if things break right. Out of the pen he has the raw stuff and fortitude to handle late-inning work.

9. Torsten Boss (of, Class A-SS Aberdeen) / Age: 22y7m / Prev. Rank: N/A
Boss was announced as a third baseman on draft day -- we were dubious. Thus far in Aberdeen he has been roaming the outfield, which is a much better fit for the former Spartan. He profiles as a pinch hit/fourth outfield type that will hit will a little bit of pop and provide positive value on the basepaths, more due to ability than pure speed (which is average). He was potentially the biggest bargain landed by Baltimore in the 2013 draft class.

10. Bobby Bundy (rhp, Double-A Bowie) / Age: 22y6m / Prev. Rank: 4
Bundy's ranking as the #4 prospect in the system last November said a little more about the questions surrounding the other O's prospects than it did about Bundy's OFP. Still, the elder Bundy is owner of a solid average arsenal that includes a heavy, groundball-inducing fastball, as well as a big innings-eater body. His 2012 got off to a rough start, but each month has seen positive movement in FIP and he remains a solid probability guy that could land in the back of a rotation or provide middle-work in the pen.

Midseason update: Top 25 Orioles Prospect Links
1 - 10 / 11 - 20 / 21 - 25 / vs The Depot

Midseason update: Shadow System Rankings

Introduction
Over the All-Star break we will provide an updated ranking of the top 25 Orioles prospects.  For the time being, we thought it would be fun to recap our Shadow System and provide a snap shot as to where the Orioles's system would be were Jon and I in charge of making decisions to draft/sign amateur talent over the past four or five years.

As a recap, each year since 2008 we have made a "shadow" selection at each point that the Orioles have had a draft pick in the first ten rounds (only the first five rounds for 2008).  As far as international signings are concerned, we have generally just gone along with Baltimore's signings.

In our most recent piece touching on Baltimore's international efforts, we mentioned that Camden Depot has only strongly endorsed going after two high profile international prospects -- Miguel Sano (signed with Twins) and Ronald Guzman (signed with Rangers). In the case of Sano we would have offered more than he ultimately received; the opposite was true for Guzman. 

One reader pointed out to me that by not having Sano included in our Shadow System, we were essentially letting ourselves off the hook if he turns out to be a bad investment, but allowing ourselves to bring him up so long as he performs well.  Fair enough point -- he will now be included in our system with a price tag of $3.6 MM (he signed for just over $3.1 MM, so the extra $.5 MM should cover the "price" of buying him away from a system that is, at least on the surface, a bit more inviting to Latin American talent).

Below is a summary of our selections, and Baltimore's actual selections, since 2008.  Where necessary, we have noted spots where our spending on our picks would have prevented going overslot for picks after the first ten rounds (and those players have accordingly been left out of our Shadow System).

History of selections
We will update this table once the 2012 amateur draft signing period has ended. 

CLICK TABLE TO ENLARGE

There are two decisions of note that account for the discrepency in spending: 1) the signing of international free agent Miguel Sano in 2009, and 2) the conscious decision to try and max out on draft haul in 2011, which was simultaneously one of the deepest draft classes in recent history and the last "free market" opportunity for the draft, with new rules rolling into place in 2012.  Outside of those decisions, we attempted to stay in line with what we thought would be a reasonable budget for Baltimore's acquisitions.

Prospects of note that we missed out on; prospects of note we grabbed
The big two in the O's system right now -- Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado -- are easily the best players currently in the Orioles system but not in our Shadow System.  Camden Depot passed on Machado in 2010, selecting Karsten Whitson (rhp, Chipola HS, Fla.) instead.  Whitson decided to forgo the start of his pro career in favor of three years at the University of Florida.  Camden Depot received a comp pick for use with the third overall pick last year.  That pick was used to grab the top player on our board: Anthony Rendon (3b, Rice Univ.). 

Rendon has struggled to stay healthy over the past 18-months, but was easily the best offensive talent in the historically gifted 2011 draft class.  He is again on the disabled list, on while there is plenty of time for him to realize his emmense potential, the early nod has to be given to Machado and his solid showing at Double-A Bowie this year as a 20-year old.

Our second pick last year we passed on Bundy (who we had rated as a top 5 talent in the class) in favor of Derek "Bubba" Starling (of, Gardner-Edgerton HS, Kan.).  Starling was in extended spring training and working out at Kansas City's complex prior to joining up with the Burlington Bees (KC's Appy League team).  Starling has only played in seven Appy League games and currently sports a .321/.472/.607 triple-slash with 5 BB, 7 SO, 1 3B and 2 HR over his first 36 plate appearances. A solid showing, but again you have to give the nod to the Orioles's actual selection, Dylan Bundy, who is just two months older than Starling and more than holding his own at Advanced-A Frederick.

So, has the Shadow system been a failure on the Starling/Rendon : Bundy/Machado comparison alone? Not exactly.  We scored big when we selected Zack Wheeler in 2009 (now a top 15 prospect in all of baseball) while Baltimore appears to have swung and missed with Matt Hobgood.  Additionally, our decision to invest $3.6 MM in Miguel Sano may or may not work out long term, but the young Dominican slugger is currently showing perhaps the best raw power in all of Minor League Baseball (albeit with a "work-to-be-done" hit tool).

Other names we like in Baltimore's system include LJ Hoes, Clayton Schrader, and Xavier Avery, all of whom we have touted since their drafting by the O's.  Avery has broken through to the Majors this year, and Hoes looks to be not far behind.  Schrader is a high risk/solid reward arm that has progressed to Bowie off the strength of a plus 1-2 punch in his fastball and power curve.  How he handles control and command issues will determine his ultimate worth to the big club.

There are a number of names of note that we feel we did well to grab, though most of them remain in the low minors as high school picks out of the draft.  Ty Buttrey and Dillon Howard may wind-up in the pen, but carry with them #2/#3 upside in a rotation if things click.  Garin Cecchini, Todd Glaesmann, Tanner Rahier, Avery Romero (provided he signs), and Jake Cave are high upside offensive talents at A-ball or lower, but could be five-ninths of an impressive upper-minors squad at Double-A within two years. 

Josh Rutledge has nowhere near the upside of Machado, but gives the Shadow System a Double-A shortstop that has a chance to be an above-average offensive producer at a middle-infield position by 2013 (even if he has to slide over to second base).  Roger Kieschnick has exploded in the Pacific Coast League this year, already dropping 14 bombs through his first 50 games, but is only a fringe prospect because of the swing-and-miss in his offensive game and his corner profile.  Josh Elander (c, TCU) could turn out to be a steal in the 6th Round of this year's draft -- he should see time in A-ball this year and could be ready to tackle Double-A as early as next year if he shifts out from behind the plate to right field.
Top 25 prospects for the Camden Depot Shadow System
For purposes of this list, we are assuming Gausman and Romero both sign before next Friday. To the extent they do not, we'll update the list when we run our comparison piece on the updated O's top 25 and the updated Shadow System top 25.  All ages listed are as of July 1, 2012.

1. Zack Wheeler (22y1m, Double-A)
2. Kevin Gausman (21y6m, 2012 Draft)
3. Bubba Starling (19y11m, Rookie)
4. Miguel Sano (19y2m, Class A)
5. Anthony Rendon (22y1m, Class A-Adv.)
Notes:
It's a very nice top 5 as far as upside is concerned, but Starling and Sano carry with them a good amount of risk associated with their respective hit tools and refinement.  Rendon is as safe a bet as you will find on the field, but he needs to show he can actually stay on the field.  Gausman and Wheeler both have front-end upside but need to continue to refine their command.  These five could all be on an All-Star team in four years, but this upside comes with both risk and a heavy financial investment (about $25 MM total).

6. Jonathan Schoop (20y9m, Double-A)
7. Garin Cecchini (21y2m, Class A)
8. Josh Rutledge (23y2m, Double-A)
9. Dillon Howard (20y0m, Rookie)
10. Ty Buttrey (19y3m, 2012 Draft)
Notes:
A very solid second-half of the top ten, providing offensive upside with Schoop and Cecchini, some offensive production up-the-middle with Rutledge, and two power arms that could grow into top 20 prospects or eventually find their way to the pen.  Rutledge and Schoop could make an interesting tandem up-the-middle, though both might best fit as second basemen.

11. Tanner Rahier (18y9m, 2012 Draft)
12. Avery Romero (19y2m, 2012 Draft)
13. Todd Glaesmann (21y8m, Class A)
14. Josh Elander (21y3m, 2012 Draft)
15. Roger Kieschnick (25y5m, Triple-A)
Notes:
Both Kieschnick and Glaesman have seen hiccups in their development but have enjoyed a successful start to their respective 2012 seasons, totaling 26 homeruns through a combined 127 games.  Both have struggled to overcome some holes, offensively, but could project as product corner outfielders with some pop.  The trio of 2012 draftees all carry their value in their bats, with Rahier and Romero likely to tackle short-season ball this year and Class A next year.  Elander is advanced enough with the bat to jump to Class A-Advanced, but might be eased into pro ball at the Class A level so that he can continue to work on his receiving behind the plate.

16. Brody Colvin (21y11m, Class A-Adv.)
17. Logan Verrett (22y0m, Class A)
18. Bobby Bundy (22y6m, Double-A)
19. Lex Rutledge (21y0m, 2012 Draft)
20. Eduardo Rodriguez (18y3m, Class A)
Notes:
Colvin was an expensive oversign back in 2009 who has struggled to harness his stuff through his first two-plus seasons of pro ball.  Colvin retains his mid-rotation upside but is more likely to provide value as a late-inning power arm.  Verrett has been eased into pro ball but is old enough, and has shown enough success at Class A, to start moving up the chain. He tops out as a #3 but, like Colvin, might fit best in the back of a pen.  Bundy is a workhorse that struggled to start the 2012 season but has seen a steady lowering of his FIP over the last three months. He projects as a back-end innings eater but will need to find the breaker he had pre-draft to stick as a starter. Rutledge is a power arm best suited for relief, where his stuff plays much better than it does as a starter.  He could be an 8th-inning guy. Eduardo Rodriguez is surviving Delmarva at a young age, but his stuff looks to project better to the back end of a rotation.

21. Cody Kukuk (19y3m, Extended ST)
22. Jake Cave (19y8m, Extended ST - Injury)
23. Ian Krol (21y2m, Class A-Adv.)
24. Tim Melville (22y10m, Double-A)
25. Glynn Davis (20y8m, Class A)
Notes:
Kukuk has yet to leave extended spring training but should make a short-season appearance this summer and tackle full-season ball in 2013.  He profiles as a potential mid-rotation or back-end arm but is a ways away.  Cave has tools for miles but has been slowed due to minor surgery early in 2012. He could make a big jump after he gets a year or so of pro ball under his belt.  Krol has been slowed by an elbow injury and some off-field antics costing him playing and development time.  He could be back-end starter, but has some growing up to do.  Melville was a seven-figure investment in 2008 but has struggled to find consistency in mechanics and stuff. Like Krol, the bullpen is the most likely point of entry to the Majors.  Davis remains a speedy athlete with a solid feel for the game but needs to get much stronger in order to avoid having the bat knocked out of his hand at the upper-levels. He profiles as a potential 4th outfielder. 

It's not an elite system, but there is big upside at the top and lotto tickets sprinkled throughout the 11-25 range.  After we unveil the updated Orioles Top 25 list next week we will examine whether, as of today, this collection of players is worth the additional $9 MM-plus of investment over the crop currently in Baltimore's system.

Cup of jO's: Joe Mahoney is Tall

Sexson shows the benefit of size.

Joe Mahoney is 6'6.  That is pretty tall for a first baseman.  How tall is it?  In the history of the game there have been 10 first basemen who have been 6'6 or taller.  Here is that list:

Richie Sexson 14.4 rWAR, 1367 games
Tony Clark 11.8 rWAR, 1559 games
Damon Minor 0.2 rWAR, 136 games
Ron Jackson 0.2 rWAR, 196 games
Cotton Nash 0.0 rWAR, 13 games
Julio Zuleta -0.3 rWAR, 79 games
Desi Wilson -0.4 rWAR, 41 games
Brad Eldred -1.3 rWAR, 85 games
Don Gile -1.3 rWAR, 58 games
Howie Schultz -2.7 rWAR, 470 games

This list in and of itself does not impart a great deal of information about how successful Joe Mahoney could be.  Nick wrote this on Mahoney this past fall:

Joe Mahoney is a bat-first corner defender likely to end-up at first base or designated hitter, full time. He has some length to his swing, a not-insignificant leak entering his weight transfer and a moderate to heavy backside collapse, depending on the at bat. Prognosis? It's unlikely contact will be Mahoney's strong suit, and he could be quickly exposed at the Major League level, if not Triple-A. He projects as a bench bat or Four-A player.

In discussions about Joe Mahoney entering his age 25 season and how he has not yet been able to tap into his power potential, it has been argued that players with such immense height require extra development time in order to be able to successful control the strike zone.  However, I am not so sure about that.  Richie Sexson established himself as a big league player at the end of the 1998 season at the age of 23.  He really did not harness his power stroke until he was 22.  Tony Clark established himself in 1996 as a 24 year old.  Clark's power emerged as a 22 year old.

I think it is fair to say that of the players of his dimensions who have been successful, Mahoney is two to three years behind them.  That said, I am not sure that grouping players on the extreme ends of height is a useful exercise.  It is more prudent to stick to traditional scouting on this one and it pretty much says something similar, which is that Joe Mahoney is likely to have more in common with Julio Zuleta than Richie Sexson.

Cup of jO's: 2012 Composite Orioles Prospect Rankings

It has gotten to that point in the year when we can do some composite rankings.  I decided to throw this together when we had a question on Joe Mahoney and how the Depot is not very high on him.  Mahoney certainly is an interesting player.  There seems to be a dichotomy between the two national ranking sources I used (Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein) and the two more local sources (Nick Faleris and Tony Pente).  Both the local sources do not see Mahoney as a top 20 player whereas Goldstein and BA ranked him 12th and 13th, respectively.  Perhaps more importantly is that general consensus that the Orioles system is top heavy like a lollipop.  Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado profile as elite talents with Jonathan Schoop as fringe elite.

The rankings below use an average of the four sources rank to determine a mean rank.  Any players not found in a particular source's top 15 were considered 'unranked' and assigned a rank value of 20.  The column to the left has many scouting reports for the players listed below.  Simply click on the name to the left.

2012 Orioles Composite Prospect Rankings

1. Dylan Bundy
    Mean - 1; Low - 1; High - 1
2. Manny Machado
    Mean - 2; Low - 2; High - 2
3. Jonathan Schoop
    Mean - 3; Low - 3; High - 3
4. Nicky Delmonico
    Mean - 5; Low - 4; High - 6
5. Parker Bridwell
    Mean - 6; Low - 4; High - 7
6. L.J. Hoes
    Mean - 6.25; Low - 5; High - 10
7. Jason Esposito
    Mean - 6.75; Low - 5; High - 8
8. Dan Klein
    Mean - 8.75; Low - 8; High - 10
9. Bobby Bundy
    Mean - 10.25; Low - 4; High - unranked
10. Clayton Schrader
    Mean - 13; Low - 9; High - unranked
11. Xavier Avery
    Mean - 13.25; Low - 8; High - unranked
12. Michael Wright
    Mean - 14.25; Low - 10; High - unranked
13. Eduardo Rodriguez
    Mean - 14.5; Low - 11; High - unranked
14. Ryan Adams
    Mean - 15.25; Low - 9; High - unranked
15. Glynn Davis
    Mean - 15.5; Low - 9; High - unranked

A couple quick notes:

• There is apparently industry agreement on the first three talents: Dylan Bundy, Manny Machado, and Jonathan Schoop
• The most volatile ranking is Bobby Bundy who was ranked as high as fourth (by Nick Faleris) and unranked by Baseball America.

2012 Top 25 Prospect Chat

Here is a link to all of our Winter 2012 Orioles Prospects pieces, including our "Minor League Year in Review" series and write-ups for each of the Top 25 prospects in the system. Our coverage concludes with our Top 25 Prospect chat below.

Top 25 Prospects:
Chat and all player write-ups together here.
*Primer for scouting grades here.

MiLB Year in Review:
Double-A Bowie / Triple-A Norfolk
Advanced-A Frederick
Class A Delmarva
DSL Orioles / Rookie GCL Orioles / Short-season A Aberdeen

2012 Top 25 prospects: #16-20

Follow us on Twitter: @CamdenDepot

For prospects 11-25 on our Top 25, write-ups will be abbreviated, with five prospects examined in each of the next three pieces. Prospects 16-20 rank as follows:

#16 Gabriel Lino
#17 Oliver Drake
#18 Matt Angle
#19 Ryan Berry
#20 Trent Mummey

Player: Gabriel Lino
Position: catcher
Ht/Wt: 6-3/195
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 18y6m
2011 level(s): Rookie GCL Orioles
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Overall Future Potential: 41-45
Prospect Grade: C+

*Click here for primer on Grades

Discussion:
Backstop Gabriel Lino has some offensive upside and a strong arm behind the dish, but may lack the lateral quickness needed to stick at catcher long term, particularly if he gets any bigger. He has soft hands but lets his glove float a little too often when receiving, which he'll need to tighten. The power is still raw, and does not project particularly well to a corner infield spot. Just 18-years old this year, he has time to work on his problem areas. Should his power tool emerge, he could shift to first base in order to allow more developmental focus on his bat. He is on the large side for a catcher, and it still remains to be seen how he will hold up physically over the stress of a long full season ball season.

Ceiling: Starting catcher on first division team
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: Fringe back-up catcher

_________________________________

Player: Oliver Drake
Position: right-handed pitcher
Ht/Wt: 6-4/210
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 21y11m
2011 level(s): Advanced-A Frederick; Double-A Bowie; Triple-A Norfolk
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Overall Future Potential: 41-45
Prospect Grade: C+

*Click here for primer on Grades

Discussion:
Drake has a compact, under-control delivery and maintains a good line to home. His 89-92 mph fastball has some life and can induce soft contact down in the zone. His cut slider is a solid average to above-average offering, and he has also flashed average throughout his pro career with both his off-speed and curve. Drake has the body and endurance to chew through innings, but his stuff may be better suited for the pen, where his fastball/slider combo could be solid in middle-inning work. Baltimore will give him a second run at Bowie next year. If he stumbles, he could shift to the pen prior to promotion to Norfolk.

Ceiling: #4 starter on first division team
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: Middle-reliever

_________________________________

Player: Matt Angle
Position: center field
Ht/Wt: 5-10/175
B/T: L/R
Age at 11/2011: 26y2m
2011 level(s): Triple-A Norfolk; MLB Baltimore
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Overall Future Potential: 38-43
Prospect Grade: C+

*Click here for primer on Grades

Discussion:
Matt Angle arrived in Baltimore this summer with largely the profile expected of him since he entered the system in 2007. Devoid of power, the former Buckeye center fielder fits best as a 4th outfielder capable of plus defense and solid value as a pinch runner. He could slot in as a placeholder in a starting lineup, but it is unlikely he will be able to handle Major League velocity on the inner-half to the point that he maintains even a passable on-base percentage. He should have the inside track on the 4th outfield spot this spring, depending on what transpires over the remainder of this off-season, and could see significant innings as a late-inning defensive replacement, pinch runner and Sunday starter.

Ceiling: 4th or 5th outfielder on first division team
Floor: Four-A
Projected: 4th or 5th outfielder on first division team

_________________________________

Player: Ryan Berry
Position: right-handed pitcher
Ht/Wt: 6-1/195
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 23y2m
2011 level(s): Rookie GCL Orioles; Short-season A Aberdeen; Advanced-A Frederick
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Overall Future Potential: 38-43
Prospect Grade: C

*Click here for primer on Grades

Discussion:
Berry eased back into baseball activities in 2011, following off-season shoulder surgery. Originally projected as a potential mid-rotation starter, the resurfacing of shoulder issues may move Baltimore to shift the former Rice ace to the pen. When healthy, Berry boasts two curves, with a hard spike (or knuckle) curve being his best offering. His fastball is generally fringe-average velocity, sitting upper-80s to low-90s, but he could see a slight bump in velo if he shifts to shorter stints in the pen. 2011 was very much about building shoulder strength back-up; it will be interesting to see if Baltimore gives him another shot in a rotation or bumps him to relief to get him moving.

Ceiling: #4/#5 starter on first division team
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: Middle-reliever

_________________________________

Player: Trent Mummey
Position: outfield
Ht/Wt: 5-10/185
B/T: L/L
Age at 11/2011: 22y11m
2011 level(s): Class A Delmarva; Advanced-A Frederick
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Overall Future Potential: 38-43
Prospect Grade: C

*Click here for primer on Grades

Discussion:
Trent Mummey missed time after crashing into an outfield wall in May, then again due to hamstring issues later in the summer. While he only logged 29 games and 134 plate appearances this summer (14 and 69 in Delmarva and Frederick, respectively), he showed a good feel for the game and solidified his status as a prospect. Mummey has limited ceiling, but plays a good center field, runs well, and has a short swing capable of spraying the gaps. He's undersized, but strong, and likely fits best as a future 4th outfielder. He gets tied up on the inner half when faced with good velocity, and his ability to adjust to more advanced secondary stuff at Double-A Bowie will say a lot about his future potential.

Ceiling: 4th outfielder on a first division team
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: Fringe bench

2012 Top 25 Prospects: #11 - 15

Follow us on Twitter: @CamdenDepot

For prospects 11-25 on our Top 25, write-ups will be abbreviated, with five prospects examined in each of the next three pieces. Prospects 11-15 rank as follows:

#11 Xavier Avery
#12 Ryan Adams
#13 Glynn Davis
#14 Eduardo Rodriguez
#15 Michael Wright

Player: Xavier Avery
Position: center field/left field
Ht/Wt: 5-11/180
B/T: L/L
Age at 11/2011: 21y11m
2011 level(s): Double-A Bowie
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Overall Future Potential: 46-50
Prospect Grade: B-

*Click here for primer on Grades

Discussion:
Xavier Avery remains an upside prospect with promise, despite completing his third full season with strikeouts in over 20% of his plate appearances. The reason for optimism is simple -- he continues to keep his head above water while being promoted by the O's and remaining one of the youngest players in the league, year-in and year-out. He will start 2012 at age 22, and could get a bump to Norfolk following a solid AFL campaign and provided he shows well in the Spring. A speed-first talent, Avery is among the fastest prospects in the system (along with Kyle Hudson and Glynn Davis -- all "80" runners on the 20/80 scouting scale). His heavy left/right split could spell a future as part of a platoon. If he can tighten-up his routes in center field, he should have easy value as a fourth outfielder. His ability to improve against lefties and to learn to more consistently ID off-speed will determine if he can become a regular at the highest level.

Ceiling: Average starting center fielder on first division team
Floor: Four-A
Projected: 4th or 5th outfielder on first division team

_________________________________

Player: Ryan Adams
Position: second base/third base
Ht/Wt: 5-11/185
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 24y7m
2011 level(s): Triple-A Norfolk; MLB Baltimore
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Overall Future Potential: 44-48
Prospect Grade: C+

*Click here for primer on Grades

Discussion:
Offensively, Adams will swing and miss a fair amount due to average bat speed, and top velocity will likely always give him trouble. But he keeps his swing simple and tight, and finds ways to get the barrel to the ball. His raw power is above-average, with potential average in-game applicability. He could carveout a spot as a 6 or 7 hitter in a first division line-up if he finds enough gaps and is able to produce 15 or so homeruns per year. Defensively, Adams still struggles with his footwork, though he has made strides in cleaning-up the set-up on his throws (which in turn has improved his play-to-play accuracy). He is the type of player that will always need to work to maintain an adequate defensive disposition, but could be making enough progress to be passable at either third base or second base. Adams could be adequate as an inexpensive bridge to Miclat, Hoes or Schoop, but probably profiles best as a bench bat and occasional starter at either second or third.

Ceiling: Fringe-average second baseman on first division team
Floor: Four-A
Projected: Useful bench player

_________________________________

Player: Glynn Davis
Position: center field
Ht/Wt: 6-3/170
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 19y11m
2011 level(s): Rookie GCL Orioles; Short-season A Aberdeen; Advanced-A Frederick
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Overall Future Potential: 44-48
Prospect Grade: C+

*Click here for primer on Grades

Discussion:
Glynn Davis ranked as the 16th best prospect in O's system this time last year -- a lofty spot considering he signed as an undrafted free agent out of Catonsville CC (Md.) earlier that summer. In his first full year of pro ball the center fielder made solid progress, showing well in the Gulf Coast and Aberdeen before making a one-game appearance with the Keys. The speedy Davis is a true "80" runner on the 20-80 scouting scale and shows enough feel to project as an average to above-average defender. He has begun to improved his approach this summer both offensively and defensively, but remains very much a work in progress. Davis is similar in body type to Hunter Pence, though he lacks Pence's current physicality. Offensively he good develop an average hit tool with fringe-average power, provided he continues to add strength. If he can develop an on-base approach, he could be useful as a #1 or #2 hitter capable of reaching base via infield hit and stretching extra bases as he works out the gaps. He'll need to mature, physically, but has time to do so. He should get the gig as starting center fielder in Delmarva next summer.

Ceiling: Average center fielder on first division team
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: 4th or 5th outfielder on 1st division team

_________________________________

Player: Eduardo Rodriguez
Position: left-handed pitcher
Ht/Wt: 6-2/175
B/T: L/L
Age at 11/2011: 18y7m
2011 level(s): Rookie GCL Orioles; Short-season A Aberdeen
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Overall Future Potential: 44-48
Prospect Grade: C+

*Click here for primer on Grades

Discussion:
Eduardo Rodriguez does not have putaway stuff, but there is a chance for three workable pitches and he had them all on display through his ten starts and one relief appearance in the 2011 GCL Orioles season. The 18-year old has a broad frame and thickening physique, which bodes well for his future physicality. His motion is generally loose and easy, coming with a clean three-quarters release and staying under control throughout. He frequently fails to get on top of his breaking ball -- a pitch that will flash some bite but for now looks like a future average offering due to rotation and plane. His fastball is an upper-80s offering that bumps 91/92 mph, and he can spot it to both sides of the plate. His change-up has the potential to outdistance his breaker as his go-to secondary offering, and he shows feel for it at an early stage. Rodriguez likely tops out as a mid-rotation arm, more likely to fall somewhere in the back-end of a rotation. None of his offerings project to plus right now, but his fastball and off-speed could grade out as above-average as he continues to refine

Ceiling: #3 starter on first division team
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: #4/#5 starter on first division team

Player: Michael Wright
Position: right-handed pitcher
Ht/Wt: 6-5/195
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 21y10m
2011 level(s): Rookie GCL Orioles; Short-season Aberdeen; Class A Delmarva
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference
Overall Future Potential: 44-48
Prospect Grade: C+

*Click here for primer on Grades

Discussion:
Mike Wright started seven games for Aberdeen but may fit better as a sinker/slider reliever, long term, in spite of his workhorse build. He has a short arm circle on the back side and low arm slot, creating a tough angle for hitters to try and square his sinker/slider combo. His sinker is a low-90s offering that can bump mid-90s in short stints, and his slider compliments it well. He spots both pitches to both sides of the plate. His offspeed lags behind in development, and will likely be a focus for 2012. If he can develop a useful change to go with a solid sinker/slider combo, he could top out as a mid-rotation innings-eater.

Ceiling: #3/#4 starter on a first division team
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: Middle-relief arm

2012 Top 25 Prospects: #10 Dan Klein

Follow us on Twitter: @CamdenDepot

Player: Dan Klein
Position: right-handed pitcher
Ht/Wt: 6-2/190
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 23y3m
2011 level(s): Advanced-A Frederick; Double-A Bowie
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central

Grades - Now (Future):
Motion: 50 (50)
Fastball: 50 (50)
Curveball: 50 (55)
Change: 50 (50/55)
Slider: 40 (45)
Control: 50 (60)
Command: 50 (55)
Feel: 50/55 (55)
Overall Future Potential: 46-52
Prospect Grade: B-

*Click here for primer on Grades

Background:
Drafted in the 3rd Round of the 2010 Draft, out of UCLA, and signed for almost $499,900. Multi-sport athlete in high school and national level prospect in both baseball and football. Missed sophomore year at UCLA after shoulder surgery and pitched exclusively in relief thereafter.

Physical Description:
Broad upper-body, well developed and tapered to a medium waist. Athletic build. Durable physique but history of shoulder issues. Good athleticism and body control.

Motion:
Klein utilizes a simple step-in motion, staying udner control and repeating well. He shows a quick arm with fairly easy action, though he comes close to a hard stab, dropping the ball low to his hip before entering a semi-short arm circle. There is potential for some shoulder strain with that pairing, and with his shoulder surgery in 2009, and now again in 2011, it is worth monitoring. He stays relatively quick to home, often clocking sub-1.3s on the watch.

Stuff:
Fastball - Klein gets good life on his fastball, running it in on righties with late action. It generally sits 91-93 mph and can come with good bore. He spots it well to each side and shows an understanding of how to use it to set-up his curve, change and slider, depending on the situation.

Curve - a 12-to-6 breaker, Klein's curve is at its best when he throws it in the 76-78 mph range, getting solid shape and depth. He can use it as a freeze pitch but is most effective at this point when he buries it. Klein shows a high level of comfort with wthe offering, and there is enough spin to project it as a potential above-average pitch.

Change-up - Klein's change is generally 85-86 mph, showing drop and even some late fade. It is most effective down in the zone and he has found some success working it under the hands against lefties. The pitch was inconsistent at UCLA, turning flat and hittable up in the zone, but he has since improved his execution. A feel pitch, he will need to demonstrate his latest trip to the surgeon has not set him back.

Slider - The least effective of his offerings, Klein's slider is an 84-86 mph breaker with below average depth and bite. It works well as a change of pace pitch with tilt, breaking opposite his change and inducing soft contact. Like his change, when he misses the pitch it is hittable, though that doesn't stop him from getting aggressive with it. His arm speed produces plenty of spin, so reps should help the pitch reach Major League average in time.

Discussion:
2011 started about as well as it could for Klein, as he breezed through Advanced-A Frederick and Double-A Bowie with little trouble. Throwing exclusively from the pen, Klein utilized his four pitch mix effectively in posting a SO/9 rate of 10.3 and SO/BB rate of 6.17 over 32.1 innings. Unfortunately, his season ended prematurely in June due to tenderness in his shoulder. He was shut down and underwent surgery to repair a SLAP tear in his right labrum.

Regardless of Klein's timetable for return, this setback is a major blow to Baltimore's plans to transition the former UCLA closer to the rotation. Klein has yet to surpass 52 innings in a season since he did so between his high school junior spring and summer, back in 2006. He will pitch most of 2012 as a 24-year old, and it would likely be another three years before he builds up the arm strength and endurance necessary to log 150+ innings.

When healthy, Klein is essentially ready to tackle Major League hitters in a limited relief role. He lacks the putaway stuff to make him a viable shutdown arm, but his solid pitchability and stable of average or above offerings could make him an above-average reliever with 8th inning potential. His health will be the primary determinant in how Klein ultimately develops, and his setbacks in this department are the primary discounting factor in his OFP grade of 46-52.

Ceiling: Late-inning reliever
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: Useful middle reliever

2012 Top 25 Prospects: #9 Clayton Schrader

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Player: Clayton Schrader
Position: right-handed pitcher
Ht/Wt: 6-0/200
B/T: L/R
Age at 11/2011: 21y7m
2011 level(s): Class A Delmarva; Advanced-A Frederick
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central

Grades - Now (Future):
Motion: 35 (40/45)
Fastball: 50 (60)
Slider: 45 (55/60)
Curveball: 40 (45/50)
Change: Not scouted
Control: 25/30 (40)
Command: 20/25 (35/40)
Feel: 35/40 (45/50)
Overall Future Potential: 46-52
Prospect Grade: B-

*Click here for primer on Grades

Background:
Drafted in the 10th Round of the 2010 Draft, out of San Jacinto College(Texas), and signed for overslot bonus of $300,000.

Physical Description:
Broad build, wide hips. Strong, especially in core and trunk. Some room to firm up physique and improve conditioning.

Motion:
Schrader throws from an elevated three-quarters arm slot and matches it well with his fastball and breaking balls. Because he doesn't pair the slot with a corresponding tilt, there is some concern for future shoulder injury (though that is off course dependent on the structural specifics of his joint). His delivery, which produces mid-90s velocity, comes with a lot of effort, including a rigid landing and extreme head whack and arm recoil to finish. The result is well below average control and a limited number of pitches in his arm per appearance. While he will be able to smooth out his landing some, much of his mechanics "are what they are," and Baltimore will likely take the good (loud stuff) with the bad (control and limited profile).

Stuff:
Fastball - Big plus offering that runs low- to mid-90s with some life. Schrader will spray the strikezone with the pitch, but has little command to spots.

Slider - Mid-80s offering with hard bite and tilt. Arm slot deception and true swing-and-miss ability. Potential plus offering down the line.

Curve - Downer 78 to 82 mph offering utilized more at San Jacinto than in 2011. Serves as a useful counter to his harder offerings due to velocity delta.

Change-up - Not scouted.

Discussion:
"Clay Shray" is a big arm with big control issues at present, though a slightly softer landing can help him keep his momentum more consistently to home and prevent some off his swing-around. While his arm angle raises some potential red flags from a biomechanical standpoint, it helps him to create a solid downhill plane, even with his listed 6-foot frame. He does an adequate job of hitting his slot consistently and just needs to find a way to stay in the zone with a little more frequency.

While the walk rate is the critique most likely to be touched upon in internet reports, he should be able to survive with 4+ BB/9 at the Major League level due to his ability to minimize baserunning threats by missing bats. That said, he will walk hitters and, like Fernando Rodney, may actually fit better in the closer role than as a 7th or 8th inning arm. This would allow him to enter the majority of his games with clean bases and would help to minimize the potential damage resulting from his inevitable base-on-balls.

Perhaps most important, Baltimore will need Schrader to work on his endurance. While the effort in his delivery causes control issues, the drain on his energy is perhaps more impactful. He is noticeably less effective the more pitches he hangs on his arm per appearance, and as a result Baltimore endeavored to keep him from appearing on back-to-back days. Double-A Bowie will represent his first true pro challenge and will help to ground his projection. If he is able to maintain his power stuff on back-to-back days, and can clean-up his mechanics enough to get his BB/9 down between 4 and 5, he could be a useful bullpen piece in Baltimore as early as the second half of next year. He has the upside profile of a Jorge Julio.

Ceiling: Late-inning reliever
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: Useful middle reliever

2012 Top 25 Prospects: #8 Jason Esposito

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Player: Jason Esposito
Position: third base
Ht/Wt: 6-2/205
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 21y4m
2011 level(s): N/A
2011 statistics: N/A

Grades - Now (Future):
Hit: 35 (40/45)
Power: 40 (45/50)
Arm: 60 (60)
Defense: 55 (65)
Speed: 45 (40)
Feel: 50 (50/55)
Overall Future Potential: 46-52
Prospect Grade: B-

*Click here for primer on Grades

Background:
2nd Round selection in the 2011 draft, out of Vanderbilt University. Signed for overslot bonus of $600,000. Previously drafted and unsigned in 2008 by Kansas City.

Physical Description:
Solid, athletic build. Wide hips with strong trunk and core. Pro body with little projection left, but should be able to tighten physique as he finishes maturing.

Hitting:
Espo takes with him to the plate a solid approach, including a good feel for the strikezone. His swing is compact and he covers the quadrants fairly well. There is enough strength in his wrists to allow him to transfer power from his core to the bat, and he shows that pop by producing hard contact from pole-to-pole. Esposito's bat speed is the primary chink in his armor, and he has struggled mightily when armed with lumber against more advanced competition on the Cape and with Team USA. An issue tangential to his bat speed is pitch-ID. Because he needs to start his swing early to catch-up with better velocity, good off-speed offerings can give him trouble. Additionally, he utilizes a medium-high leg kick in his stride, which cuts into his ability to adjust his timing on the fly.

Defense:
Esposito shows easy footwork and soft hands straight on, though his lower-half can drag some on the move. This makes third base the best fit for him, and the former Vandy infielder has enough arm to man the hot corner at the Major League level. There is enough athleticism in Espo's game to allow him to hold down second base if so required, and he could even play a passable shortstop in an emergency (though extended exposure there would like prove his range and footwork to be lacking at the outer reaches of his zone). He is a below-average runner but moves well enough to cover an outfielder corner, completing his profile as a potential utility talent.

Discussion:
Esposito was a highly touted high schooler and a high follow entering his junior year at Vanderbilt in spite of back-to-back uninspiring summers on the Cape and a half-summer with USA Baseball's Collegiate National Team. His stock took a hit when his spotty offensive performance with the new BBCOR bats (which have a smaller sweetspot and less trampoline than the previous composite bats) forced evaluators to consider more strongly his average bat speed, and whether his impressive sophomore year with the 'Dores would eventually resurface in pro ball.

Despite the questions surrounding his offensive game, Esposito boasts a reasonably high floor off the strength of his glove. He can get a little clunky when forced to operate on the move and at the edge of his range, but could be a true standout defender if allowed to focus his efforts at third base. His pivots and footwork around the bag are solid, and his hands and approach will allow him to provide value at second base, as well as shortstop in a limited capacity, should Baltimore need him to log innings across the infield.

Esposito's well documented struggles to perform with wood, as well as the not-insignificant decrease in OBP (.453 to .403), SLG (.599 to .530), and BB/SO rate (0.97 to 0.38) from his sophomore to junior year, all raise questions about whether or not he will hit enough at the upper-levels to justify an everyday spot on a first division team. The glove could be double-plus quality at third, but he will need to find a way to barrel more off-speed pitches. He has enough raw power that he could be a 15-20 homerun bat if he squares-up enough balls.

Ceiling: Average third baseman on first division team
Floor: Four-A placeholder or injury insurance
Projected: Utility infielder/outfielder

2012 Top 25 Prospects: #7 Parker Bridwell

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Player: Parker Bridwell
Position: right-handed pitcher
Ht/Wt: 6-4/190
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 20y3m
2011 level(s): SS-A Aberdeen; Class A Delmarva
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central

Grades - Now (Future):
Motion: 40/45 (50)
Fastball: 50 (55/60)
Slider/Cutter: 45 (55)
Curveball: 40 (45/50)
Change: 40 (50)
Control: 40 (45/50)
Command: 35/40 (45/50)
Feel: 40 (50)
Overall Future Potential: 47-53
Prospect Grade: B

*Click here for primer on Grades

Background:
Drafted in the 9th Round of the 2010 Draft, out of Hereford High School (Hereford, Texas), and signed for overslot bonus of $625,000. Multi-sport athlete in high school and national level prospect in both baseball and football.

Physical Description:
Long, athletic build with projection. Broad shoulders to wide hips with medium-high waist. Long limbs; solid body control.

Motion:
Bridwell begins with a simple step-in to his motion. He is long on the backside and there are some checkpoints that could point to periodic stress on the ulnar collateral ligament, though that is highly dependent on the specifics of his elbow structure. Bridwell throws from a three-quarters slot with some cross-fire and first base falloff. While Bridwell is an excellent athlete, he is still working to rein in his long limbs and make uniform his mechanics. His stride length varies, which combines with his long arm action to throw off his release point and, in turn, both his control and consistency in his secondaries (his curve, in particular). He is relatively quick to home, considering his size, but needs to vary his pacing in order to prevent runners from timing him.

Stuff:
Fastball - Heavy 90-92 sinker that bumped to the mid-90s at various points this summer. When he drives the pitch down in the zone he induces a lot of soft contact -- a trend that should continue through the lower levels. He will need to improve his command of the offering, as more discerning bats will learn to lay off the pitch as it bores.

Slider/Cutter - Good arm slot deception and late cut when he snaps off a good one. Good pairing with his sinker and makes it very difficult for batters to barrel balls when Bridwell has both offerings working.

Curve - Arm generates heavy spin and there is a potential for this to develop into an above-average pitch, as well, if he can find consistency in his release. 11-to-5 action and will flash big depth. 10-13 mph velocity delta and ability to hit his fastball arm slot also makes the pitch a viable off-speed offering.

Change-up - The rawest of his arsenal, Bridwell's change-up is better than the rudimentary version on display prior to being drafted. It is a feel pitch that will require continued reps, but he has shown enough growth to project it to average.

Discussion:
Bridwell's biggest challenge will be finding consistency in his stride and uniformity in his arm action. If he can improve in those departments, he is well suited to develop into a workhorse starter with a couple of above-average to plus offerings. It is unlikely he will ever be surgical with his pitches, but so long as he can spot his heavy fastball and slider he should be able to manage his pitch counts through soft contact.

There is also some ceiling here. With big arm strength and noticeable progress already being made with his change-up, Bridwell has the upside of a #3 starter. While his command may limit his ability to reach that upside, Bridwell is still young with plenty of time to smooth out the kinks. He struggled in his first taste of full season ball this past summer, but rebounded impressively at Aberdeen, where he threw with visably more confidence and comfort.

If command or a useful third pitch prove problematic long term, Bridwell could be well suited to step into a relief role as an 8th inning arm or closer. He will continue to add strength over the coming years, making it possible to project fringe plus-plus velocity for the Texan once matured and throwing in shorter stints. The thought of a durable power arm with a grounder-inducing sinker/slider combo, however, should keep him in a rotation as long as he continues to develop. He will likely tackle Delmarava in 2012 with a half-season in Advanced-A Frederick if things break right.

Ceiling: #2/#3 starter on first division team
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: #4 starter on first division team or late-inning arm

2012 Top 25 Prospects: #6 Nicky Delmonico

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Player: Nicky Delmonico
Position: third base/first base
Ht/Wt: 6-2/200
B/T: L/R
Age at 11/2011: 19y4m
2011 level(s): N/A
2011 statistics: N/A

Grades - Now (Future):
Hit: 35 (50)
Power: 35 (55/60)
Arm: 40/45 (45)
Defense: 35/40 (45/50)
Speed: 40/45 (40)
Feel: 40/45 (50/55)
Overall Future Potential: 47-53
Prospect Grade: B

*Click here for primer on Grades

Background:
6th Round selection in the 2011 draft, out of Farragut HS (Knoxville, Tenn.). Signed for mid-1st Round money, receiving a $1,525,000. Heavy bloodlines;.

Physical Description:
Strong, thick build. Broad shoulders and wide through hips with muscular core and trunk. Lacks projection but athletic and already looks the part.

Hitting:
When everything clicks, Delmonico shows an easy swing and generates good leverage and power. He takes an impressive BP and is capable of spraying balls from line-to-line. In-game, he shows a good approach for a prep talent, though he has yet to be challenged by advanced stuff on a day-to-day basis. On good days Delmonico shows balance and good whip in his barrel. On bad days, he creates too much length in his load, gets uphill with his swing plane and can extend early causing some drag in his barrel.

Defense:
Delmonico spent his scouting circuit summer and senior spring behind the plate, but consistently struggled with his transfer, footwork and throws. Mechanics aside, Delmonico's throws show consistent bow and it is far from certain that he will have enough arm strength to make all the throws from the hot corner -- his announced position on draft day. Additionally, Delmonico's lower-half could give him trouble in the infield, though his hands should play well at either of the corners. Defense is an area that can develop quickly under pro instruction and a full-time baseball schedule yielding plenty of reps. He should get a couple of seasons to knock around the infield while Baltimore determines if there is a long-term fit at third. If not, his future success will ride entirely on the development of his bat.

Discussion:
Delmonico represents a significant draft investment, netting the largest ever bonus paid by the Orioles outside of the 1st Round. There is big offensive upside that could come by way of a solid average defensive third baseman, but that tantalizing package is spotted with risk. Delmonico has not been able to produce in-game showings indicative of his natural talent on a consistent basis since the first half of the summer before his senior year of high school, and it is worth considering whether his bonus will serve as a relieving influence on his game or added pressure to produce.

With the skillset to grow into a legit .285/.360/.525 bat, Delmonico could provide an impressive compliment to the Machado/Schoop pairing scheduled to reach Baltimore at some point in 2013 or 2014. Given his background, the expectation should be that his transition to the pro ball lifestyle should be a smooth one, though concerns over his uneven results under the draft scrutiny of his senior year have some evaluators convinced that Delmonico would be better off easing into his first pro season in extended spring training. He'll turn 20 next July, so there is some sense of urgency to get him going.

Were Delmonico a year younger or a better bet to stick at third base, he could easily have snuck into the Supplemental-1st Round, even with his rocky spring. But there are a number of potential pitfalls facing the Tennessee native and, given his limited defensive profile, an immense amount of pressure on both his hit and power tools developing into impact weapons. Outside of Dylan Bundy, he may have the highest ceiling in the 2011 draft class -- albeit with a weighty boom/bust profile.

Ceiling: Above-average third baseman on first division team
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: Fringe-average first baseman on second division team

2012 Top 25 Prospects: #5 L.J. Hoes

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Player: L.J. Hoes
Position: left field/second base
Ht/Wt: 6-1/185
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 21y8m
2011 level(s): Advanced-A Frederick; Double-A Bowie
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central

Grades - Now (Future):
Hit: 40/45 (55/60)
Power: 40 (45/50)
Arm: 50 (50)
Defense: 45 (50)
Speed: 50 (50)
Feel: 45 (50)
Overall Future Potential: 48-54
Prospect Grade: B

*Click here for primer on Grades

Background:
3rd Round selection in the 2008 Draft, drafted out of St. John's College HS (Chevy Chase, Md.).

Physical Description:
Medium frame but bloodlines and body type to project some strength. Solid athlete, though lower-half can drag at times. Average runner.

Hitting:
Hoes is a natural hitter, utilizing good balance, quick hands and a compact swing. Already in possession of a strong core, Hoes continues to firm-up his physique and could be capable of fringe-average to average power in the future, with 2012 standing out as a potential "jump" year in power production (setting aside the pitching-friendly confines of Norfolk). The only real knocks that prevent him from projecting to a true plus hit tool are some tendencies for defensive at bats and an inability to consistently match swing plane to pitch plane. He can improve in both areas, but even if he doesn't he should make plenty of contact, work walks and hit for enough pop to keep pitchers honest.

Defense:
Hoes was shifted out to left field upon arriving at Bowie. While Baltimore staff has indicated that they still view second base as a viable option for him, he will project as an outfielder until the organization decides to commit time to him at second base. A center fielder as an amateur, Hoes could provide average or a tick above-average defense in left, with enough footspeed to cover the gap, an adequate arm and solid feel. Further, he is worth at least a look in center field come March.

Discussion:
While the overall ceiling is lower, Hoes' hit tool may rank with Machado and Schoop. He shows easy command of the strikezone and the high level of comfort in the box that often belies a successful Major Leaguer. While a shift to a corner position traditionally puts more evaluative emphasis on the power tool, Hoes could get on base enough to provide solid value without hitting 20+ homeruns a year. That notwithstanding, the developing strength in Hoes' core and hands combined with his ability to discern pitches to drive could help him to realize a jump in power production as early as next summer.

Defensively, Hoes would clearly be more valuable as an up-the-middle glove. If the switch to left field proves permanent, however, he could still be capable of providing solid defense out of the seven-spot. Aside from the additional pressure on the bat, Hoes may need to do the little things on the bases to ensure that the total value package adds up to starter-quality.

Hoes will likely get knocked by a number of prospectors due to the position switch, but he so long as he continues to hit he will continue to get the benefit of the doubt here. 2012 should show whether the organization is interested in returning to the experiment with second base, or if Hoes is in left field to stay. To the extent he is stuck in the corner, he will look to prove he has enough pop to keep Triple-A and Major League arms honest, and that his success at Bowie wasn't simply a product of his .354 BABIP. With minimal growth, you can squint and see a Gerardo Parra-esque profile.

Ceiling: Average left fielder on first division team
Floor: 4th or 5th outfielder; bench bat
Projected: Fringe-average left fielder on second division team