Acquiring Jonathan Papelbon, Dealing Out J.J. Hardy

It has been widely reported that the Philadelphia Phillies are looking to deal their star closer Jonathan Papelbon.  There are a few marks against him: (1) he is due 13 MM in 2014, 2015, and, if he finished 55 games in 2015 or 110 games across both those seasons, another 13 MM in 2016, (2) word is circulating that several teammates would prefer him gone, and (3) his velocity has dropped from 95.0 to 93.8 to 92.0 mph which has resulted in more reliance on his split finger fastball.  That all said, he has performed well regardless of those characteristics.

Year	Age	Tm	W	L	ERA	GF	SV	IP	ERA+	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9
2005	24	BOS	3	1	2.65	4	0	34.0	173	1.471	8.7	1.1	4.5	9.0
2006	25	BOS	4	2	0.92	49	35	68.1	517	0.776	5.3	0.4	1.7	9.9
2007	26	BOS	1	3	1.85	53	37	58.1	257	0.771	4.6	0.8	2.3	13.0
2008	27	BOS	5	4	2.34	62	41	69.1	199	0.952	7.5	0.5	1.0	10.0
2009	28	BOS	1	1	1.85	59	38	68.0	252	1.147	7.1	0.7	3.2	10.1
2010	29	BOS	5	7	3.90	53	37	67.0	112	1.269	7.7	0.9	3.8	10.2
2011	30	BOS	4	1	2.94	54	31	64.1	147	0.933	7.0	0.4	1.4	12.2
2012	31	PHI	5	6	2.44	64	38	70.0	166	1.057	7.2	1.0	2.3	11.8
2013	32	PHI	5	1	2.92	54	29	61.2	131	1.135	8.6	0.9	1.6	8.3

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/8/2013.

It is hard to imagine that even with the downturn in SO/9 or H/9 that it will greatly affect him.  Those numbers are after all better than what Jim Johnson accomplished last year.  The Phillies willingness to deal Papelbon might also prove to be a boon as well and lower his price more than it might well be on the open market.  Additionally, the Phillies have additional pieces that are cost controlled in their system who might be able to be sprung in the right deal.

To play the part of the Phillies, I asked our old Camden Depot hand, now Baseball Prospectus writer extraordinaire, Nick Faleris.  Now, let's role play.  For the purpose of this exercise, we will assume that Baltimore is not one of the 12 teams that Papelbon's partial no trade clause includes.

Baltimore: [calls] Hey, we heard that you were calling around to find interested trade partners in a deal including Jonathan Papelbon.  You might be surprised after we had dealt Jim Johnson, but we think there might be a fit here.  We will need some money to help put Papelbon's contract into our payroll, but we think it could work with other pieces.

First, we could construct a deal around money.  Papelbon + 12 MM + Cody Asche for Eduardo Rodriuez, Brian Matusz, and Ryan Flaherty.  In Rodriguez, you  have one of the best left handed pitching prospects in baseball, Matusz is a rotation arm or elite lefty in the pen, and Flaherty has developed into a solid defensive infielder who has big game playoff experience.  In addition to Papelbon and money, we'd also be interested in a work in progress like Asche.

Or, second, we could look at a deal without money.  Papelbon + Maikel Franco + Cesar Hernandez for Rodriguez, Matusz, and Flaherty.  In order to foot the entire bill, we need a better player than Asche and Franco works for us.

How does that work for you?

Philadelphia: Thanks for reaching out to us.  We are certainly open to moving Paps under the right circumstances.  Let's take the easy stuff first.

We are happy with our current assortment of lefty bullpen arms, so Matusz does not work for us.  Tommy Hunter might.  We like his flexibility as a rotation arm if we need him in that role.  He is making more money than Matusz and has a year less of control, so I'll assume that is an easy swap out for you.

I understand you guys are working with a different payroll -- picking up some salary is expected.  We should be able to make 12 MM work, but would like to split that over 2014 and 2015.

Now, the more complicated stuff.  I won't say "never" to Franco, but we love the strides he made last summer and view him as a true impact guy in 2015.  If we move forward discussing him then I think we are talking about Kevin Gausman instead of Rodriguez, which probably complicates things on your end.  We could go larger scope and pull in more pieces, but it probably is easier to make the deal as simple as possible.

1. Paps + $12 MM (split over 2014 and 2015) for Rodriguez and Hunter.

Or, if you want to move some payroll, this deal.

2. Paps + $12 MM (split over 2014 and 2015) + Asche + Hernandez for Rodriguez + Hunter + J.J. Hardy.

Getting closer?

Baltimore: Swapping out Matusz for Hunter and splitting the money due over two seasons works for us.  Regarding Franco, I think you are right that we are going to be uncomfortable discussing Gausman.  I do think we are approaching a deal, so let's keep talking.

In deal one, we think the cost here is greater than several options similar to Papelbon that remain on the market.  If we stick with Papelbon and 12 MM, then we are looking at Hunter and an arm more like Parker Bridwell or Oliver Drake.

In deal two, it is difficult for us to deal Hardy as we are sold on his value as a shortstop and he alleviates any concerns we have about Manny Machado's injury.  Your proposal seems to value Hardy as a third baseman, but not as a shortstop where we think we could find better value elsewhere.  I would hate to bring in a third team that values Hardy as a shortstop because it would likely over complicate this deal.  Perhaps someone other than Hardy could be targetted.

Philadelphia: I think we're closer on value than you think.  If we can bring Hardy in, I'll worry about an extra bullpen arm through other avenues. How about we drop Hunter and you give us back $3 MM per.  Paps + $6 MM split between '14 and '15 + Asche + Hernandez for Rodriguez + Hardy.

Baltimore: We hate giving up Hardy, but we will agree to these terms.

Final Deal:
Phillies Receive Eduardo Rodriguez and J.J. Hardy
Orioles Receive Jonathan Papelbon, Cody Asche, Cesar Hernandez, and 6 MM.

Jon's thoughts:
My goal in this deal was to keep the Orioles competitive while also looking forward toward the team's next playoff window whose core will be Kevin Gausman, Manny Machado, Dylan Bundy, Hunter Harvey, and Adam Jones.  The additions of Cody Asche and Cesar Hernandez will help add potential long term solutions to the second base and third base questions where Ryan Flaherty, Jemile Weeks, and Jonathan Schoop are currently trying to fill those holes.  Asche profiles as a solid defensive third baseman and has power that will play.  He also has had some time at second base, so that is a possibility if the team wishes to try to develop him there.  Hernandez has the skills to play second or play center.  He is fast and shows good secondary power.  Acquiring these two talents helps ensure that the team will be able to control costs and escape the arbitration hell they have been in these past couple years.  Added to all that, Papelbon provides the team with a solid back of the bullpen arm.  Jim Johnson is replaced for a pitcher who might be better for the same cost, but 7 MM is saved with J.J. Hardy being replaced by Cody Asche.  Sure, this is not risk free, but I am betting on Machado being ready.  As insurance though, a cheap SS option like Jamey Carroll might be a prudent pick up.

It is hard to give up Eduardo Rodriguez, but what we are talking about is a guy who has a chance to be a mid or back of the rotation arm.  This is very valuable if he can meet those expectations, but his presence on the Orioles is not essential to their success.  Four and fifth starters can be found at not too exorbitant a cost.  Hardy is a tough release, but he is not a long term member of this team.  It is best to move him now for pieces that are relevant to the future of the club.

Nick's thoughts:
Philly might be best off with a semi-significant overhaul, but my best guess is that Mr. Amaro & Co. are not going to be content waving a white flag on top of close to $100 MM worth of immovable payroll for 2014. The mindset, then, is similar to the approach I took in the three-way deal I put together for last week's Baseball Prospectus Lineup Card -- try to retool some and improve your long-term cost-controlled core without giving up too much in the near term.

When Jon proposed a move for Papelbon for Rodriguez (plus some stuff), I immediately thought about Hardy.  While I'm personally an Asche supporter, my sense is that Philly is truly looking to Franco as the long term solution at third base. That means (1) Asche is expendable long term, and (2) a short term solution at third base is all I need to get to Franco in 2015. Hardy makes a ton of sense, and there's  a good chance his overall production will be a noticeable step up from my current option of running Asche out there for a full year.  Jon's interest in Asche makes that a nice fit and an easy give for Philly.  Hernandez doesn't have a definitive home, so while I'm giving up two young, cheap players I don't think it dramatically impacts my future plans.

By kicking in $4 MM in 2014 to Papelbon, I'm freeing up around $9 MM in each of the next two years, plus clearing the chance Paps vesting 2016 option kicks in on my watch.  Hardy takes $7 MM of that in 2014, then I have the full $9 MM to play with for the 2015 offseason.  There are a number of capable closers still available I can scoop up, or I can look to internal options to fill the hole Paps leaves at the back of the pen.  All in all, I'm probably going to end up saving that $2 MM and handing the closer job over to Bastardo (leaving my other lefty arms for match-ups).

Eduardo Rodriguez is a big get for me, and as much as I'd expect considering Paps' contract.  Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels will cost me $48.5 MM for the next couple years, so the idea of having two solid lefty prospects (Rodriguez and former first rounder Jesse Biddle) hopefully debuting over the next two seasons helps to lower my overall rotation costs and hopefully start to trim some of the payroll fat as the Phillies move forward.  Overall, I'm happy with the deal. I think it makes Philly a better team in 2014, as well as in the future, saving a few bucks along the way.

The Camden Highball (Episode 3): The Fan Never Dies

On the podcast today, we are recording on the Orioles/Yankees ALDS travel day.  I (Jon Shepherd) am joined by Nick Faleris from Baseball Prospectus.  We discuss a good deal about the series so far.  I discuss how attending Game 2 of the ALDS had an effect on my fandom, including the feeling to argue balls and strikes when you are 400 yards from the plate.  The Janitor, Jim Johnson, is discussed at length about whether he is elite, postseason performances, and the future.  Jones also gets a bit of a spotlight for his troubles at the plate.  Finally, we preview the upcoming games in New York and how I think everything is in the Orioles' favor at the moment. The recording was made Tuesday night (October 10, 2012).

Episode 3 of the Camden Highball

00:00:00 Music - Watchin' the Orioles by Songs from the Moon (in full at end of podcast - 00:38:30)
00:00:14 Greetings from Jon and Nick
00:01:44 Jon Shepherd's Experience at the Yard for Game 2, the Sadness of the Press Box, and Relating to the Grinch
00:07:15 Nick Commenting on the Dichotomy of Fandom and Analysis
00:12:22 The Janitor - Making Messes and Keeping Order
00:23:39 Constant Concern and Good Fortune
00:27:40 Preview for Games 3 through 5 in the ALDS

We are available on iTunes.  It stands to be quite an exciting series of games between now and then.  If you have any question you would like to pose to us, feel free to mail them via CamdenDepot@gmail.com or via the Camden Depot Facebook page.

The Camden Highball: From Yellowstone with Hope and Fear

On the podcast today, we are in the midst of playoff fever.  I (Jon Shepherd) am joined by Nick Faleris from Baseball Prospectus.  We discuss a good deal about the wild card match up between the Orioles and Rangers.  We have worries and concerns, but it is unmistakable to be in a position to run the table in October is a great place for Baltimore to be.  Camden Depot is also proud to reintroduce the book club and we are eager to present Weaver on Strategy as our first selection.  We will post more in depth on the Book Club later.  You have two weeks to acquire the book and read the first third of it.  The recording was made Thursday night (October 4, 2012).

Episode 2 of the Camden Highball

00:00:00 Music - Indiana by ABADABAD (in full at end of podcast)
00:00:20 Greetings from Yellowstone (or a bit North)
00:01:57 A One Game Playoff with Rangers is What the O's Want
00:05:00 Saunders is an Odd Choice
00:08:24 Fear of Darvish
00:10:10 Constant Concern and Good Fortune
00:17:45 A Bullpen is Hard
00:21:55 Camden Depot Book Club: Weaver on Strategy

We are available on iTunes.  It stands to be quite an exciting series of games between now and then.  If you have any question you would like to pose to us, feel free to mail them via CamdenDepot@gmail.com or via the Camden Depot Facebook page.

The Camden Highball: The First Podcast

After discussing the making of a podcast for almost two years now, Camden Depot is presenting the first episode of the Camden Highball.  Here we hope to produce a fairly consistent weekly podcast where the expanded Depot team of Daniel Moroz, Heath Blintiff, Steph Diorio, Jeremy Strain, and Jon Bernhardt will take part in discussing their perspective of things Oriole.  We are quite excited about this offering and look forward to the conversations that will come.  I hope you all enjoy.

On the podcast today, I (Jon Shepherd) am joined by our long standing writer Nick Faleris who is soon leaving to write predominantly for Baseball Prospectus about Minor League and amateur prospects.  We answer two letters from the mailbag: an evaluation of Steve Johnson and a discussion on what Andy MacPhail has meant to the 2012 Orioles.  We then tackle the AL East playoff race, who we think matches up best to the Orioles liking in the playoffs, and how to set up the post season rotation assuming the rest of the season plays out well for the team.  Finally, we add our two cents on the play of Manny Machado.  The recording was made Tuesday night (September 25, 2012).

Episode 1 of the Camden Highball

00:00:00 Introduction
00:01:59 Mailbag
00:11:35 AL East Race
00:14:15 Playoff Matchups
00:19:50 Setting Up the Rotation
00:34:00 Prospect Focus on Manny Machado
00:44:40 Nick Heading to Baseball Prospectus
00:47:51 Camden Depot Expansion

We are tentatively scheduling the next edition of the Camden Highball to post the morning after the final game of the season.  We should be available on iTunes by then.  It stands to be quite an exciting series of games between now and then.  If you have any question you would like to pose to us, feel free to mail them via CamdenDepot@gmail.com or via the Camden Depot Facebook page.

I would also like to thank Mark Brown with Camden Chat who has proved quite helpful in giving pointers to setting up this podcast.  Here at the Depot, we are familiar with appearing on podcasts, but not actually producing them.  We are doing our best to provide you with the best sound and show we can offer.  Any failing in this endeavor obviously should be credited to Mark.  All praise though is clearly to be directed toward the Camden Depot staff and our lovely, pleasant guests.

Minor League Update: Kevin Gausman (rhp, Clas A-SS Aberdeen)

Kevin Gausman (rhp, Class A-SS Aberdeen) made his home debut for the Iron Birds on Sunday, tossing three scoreless innings.  Gausman cut through Connecticut's line-up with little difficulty, the lone hit surrendered coming off the bat of former Stanford Cardinal (and fellow 2012 draftee) Jake Stewart.

Gausman's 2012 pro action will be limited to short stints as he rounds out his work load for the year, which began back in February with LSU.  Through two starts, the young righty's cumulative line sits at 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, and 5 SO. 

Currently Baltimore's #3 prospect, Gausman has true #1 upside and could headline the Orioles future rotation or slot in behind Dylan Bundy, depending on how each refines.  His fastball and change-up are already consistently above-average to plus, with each of his curve and his slider showing plus at times over the past two seasons. 

Here is our brief overview of Gausman from the 2012 mid-season top 25 prospect rankings:
 

3. Kevin Gausman (rhp, unassigned) / Age: 21y6m / Prev. Rank: N/A
Baltimore's first round selection in the 2012 draft (fourth overall selection) has an impact arsenal and has shown a proclivity for absorbing instruction over the past two years at LSU. His progression is unlikely to be linear, but the finished product could be a legit #1 or #2 starter. He should have limited pro exposure this summer, and will likely start 2013 with Class A-Adv. Frederick. 

We broke down Gausman in more detail here, as part of our draft coverage.  His next start should come next weekend, again against Connecticut. 

Machado's Debut

Machado's first MLB game in 248 words:

Pregame, Palmer noted defense and ABs against lefties as the niche Machado will be filling.  Anyone who thinks this promotion doesn't come with high hopes, expectations and an incredible amount of pressure is insane.  Obviously that's not to say Machado isn't equipped to meet the challenge, but make no mistake he is in Baltimore because the front office and the manager of the Major League club expect him to be a contributing force in a playoff push. That doesn't mean "carry the team", but it does mean "be better than what we've had through the first 110-plus games."


Offensively, Manny looked great for a kid making a two-level jump.  At various times he was clearly over-matched by Major League sequencing and execution, but that's to be expected.  His triple was the same contact point as Wieters' oppo homerun.  The distinguishing factors were Wieters' strength, pitch velocity, and Wieters' ability to better incorporate his lower-half.  Both hitters showed excellent coverage in driving their respective offerings. 

Defensively, Machado should eat up the type of balls he saw -- velocity on the ground in his set-up wingspan (within one-step reach of his position at bat-to-ball contact).  This is where his soft hands play-up.  I'm really looking forward to watching as he is tested with a wider variety of plays -- he should be fun over there.

We'll check in on Machado again once there is a larger body of work.For now, enjoy the show!

Thoughts on Machado; what I'm looking forward to seeing

Thoughts....
 
It is an exciting time for Orioles fans.  Baltimore has taken care of business thus far on a 10-game home stand against teams of which they desperately need to take advantage.  Last night, after the O's fifth straight victory, it was announced that Dylan Bundy (rhp, #1 ranked Orioles prospect) was to be promoted from Class A Frederick to Double-A Bowie for his next start.  Moments later, a bombshell was dropped -- Manny Machado (ss, #2 ranked Orioles prospect) was being jumped from Double-A Bowie to Baltimore, and would debut today.

I was tempted to stay out of the fray for a few days.  The signal-to-noise ratio on Machado appraisals, and appraisals of the decision by the Orioles front office to make this promotion, is minuscule, with lots of comparisons to the likes of Elvis Andrus and Starlin Castro, some mentions of the struggles of Mike Trout in his first taste of Major League Baseball last summer (and of course his subsequent emergence as an elite producer in The League), cautionary references to Matt Wieters and his hot-cold three-plus years with the Orioles, and of course reference to Alex Rodriguez and his first 200 at bats as a teenager with the Seattle Mariners.

Machado is a special talent.  He has the natural ability, the pedigree, and the force of the national "prospect experts" behind him.  He has two MLB Futures Game appearances in his belt.  He has been among the youngest players in the league at each stop in his professional career and has held his own (even excelling for periods of time against much older competition).  As an amateur he was a focused and determined player, relying heavily on a strong support system in his family, teammates and amateur team coaches.  His grades on make-up at the professional level have been good, and anecdotal stories from scouts have been better.  All of the elements are here for Machado to step into the start of a long and exciting career.

I'm not going to use this space to temper enthusiasm, or to point out flaws in the comparisons that I referenced above.  This isn't the right environment for a tempered and analytical discussion on player development, evaluation and comparison of players across skill sets and periods of time, or projection systems estimating Major League performance based on minor league data.   No matter the manner in which they have come to find themselves here, the Orioles are in the playoff hunt in August and have just promoted their top positional prospect to the Bigs -- a prospect largely considered (among relevant evaluative reporters) one of the top ten in all of baseball.

Let the ulta-optimistic fans come up with reasons that Machado will be the difference in the O's making the playoffs.  Let the armchair evaluators break down "Machado's game" and how it will play in Baltimore.  Let the passing prospect fans make ill-fitting comps and let the .gif and YouTube crowd break down the same 45 second clips while providing "scouty" reports.  This is what happens when something transcendently exciting happens.  Everyone is interested and everyone would like to share their thoughts.  The promotion of a nationally recognized prospect is just such a transcendent occurrence, and that is nothing but a good thing for all baseball fans.

O's fans and baseball fans in general will now be treated with the opportunity to view Machado as often as the Orioles decide to play him.  Manny gets a taste of "the good life", staying at comfortable hotels, traveling first class or charter by plane and train, and playing against the best baseball players in the world in front of tens of thousands of people in person and hundreds of thousands of people via video.  I, for one, am looking forward to taking off my scouting cap (okay, it goes back on during the weekend -- there is still a lot of work to be done for my MLB org on the 2013 draft class) and just watching Machado play.  I hope would-be sports writers and bloggers, message board participants, and O's fans in general enjoy writing about and debating the merits of Machado's promotion.  I also hope they allow themselves the luxury of just sitting back and watching this promising Baby Bird take his first few steps.

2012...

No, I'm not going to hypocritically follow that up with a scouting report...Because I've been asked, here are a couple paragraphs highlighting what I'm most looking forward to seeing over the next few weeks.  After Labor Day, I'll post my in-depth thoughts on Machado the Major Leaguer.  For the next few weeks, I'm 100% in observation (fan) mode (sorry).

Defense
Machado has been working out at third base for some time at Bowie, despite limited in-game action there.  No amount of side work prepares you for balls off of Major League bats at the hot corner, but Machado has very soft hands, a cannon for an arm, and a pretty good lower-half, all of which should help.  The biggest challenge for a shortstop making this switch at the Major League level (let alone while simultaneously jumping from Double-A) is adjusting to angles and letting go of control.

Angles, I think, are self explanatory.  The ball comes off the bat a little differently at third than at short, with a slightly different spin.  Because Major League infields are manicured differently than minor league infields, there is an additional adjustment to balls off of Major League grass.  Making those new reads is something that can only be accomplished through reps.  I look forward to seeing Manny's pre-game infield and, what I assume will be, regular additional reps during BP.  I look forward to seeing growth in this part of his game the longer he's at the five-spot.

"Letting go of control" speaks to a difference in approach between third and short.  Shortstops, for the most part, have the freedom to create their lines and their hops.  The difference between an average shortstop and a good shortstop, and between a good shortstop and an elite shortstop, is largely instinctual.

The best shortstops have a comfort level in the field that allows them to be creative in the lines they take in order to put themselves in the best position possible to complete a play.  At third, Machado will often have to let go of the urge to create those lines and hops and get used to playing the ball as it's hit.  There is less room (and less time) to maneuver, which means more importance is placed on soft hands, quick actions, and proper positioning.  It is a challenging switch to be sure, and watching a talent like Machado make those adjustments should be fun.

At bat
There is little mystery here.  I am looking forward to seeing Machado apply a general solid approach to Major League pitching.  He'll get to pick the minds of O's hitters and coaches and will be in a position to make rapid adjustments.  At the same time, he will be facing the best pitching he has ever faced.  I could hazard an estimate at OPS, while pointing out the areas I think are most likely to challenge the young infielder, but that can wait for the post-Labor Day piece.  Right now it is very, very simply -- I want to see how Manny sees the ball; I want to see how Manny hits the ball.

I'll check in tomorrow with some thoughts on tonight's game; Happy Machado Day O's fans!

Midseason update: Top 25 Prospects, Orioles vs. Depot

Introduction
This is the fourth and final part of our midseason update on the state of the Orioles system.  Through parts 1 through 3, we looked at a revised Orioles top 25 prospect list (1 - 10 / 11 - 20 / 21 - 25).  We conclude the series with a comparison against the Shadow System that Camden Depot has assembled over the past five drafts.  For a recap on the Shadow System, you can click here for all of our entries tagged "Shadow System".

Summary of top 25 prospects, Orioles vs. Depot
The grades in this table are a loose tiering, with Tier 1 being potential impact talents, Tier 2 being potential everyday contributors, and Tier 3 being fringe MLB contributors. 

Point Orioles
Baltimore will, by most accounts, have two of the top 10 prospects in in minor leagues come "prospect ranking season" this winter -- Dylan Bundy (rhp, Class A-Adv. Frederick) and Manny Machado (ss, Double-A Bowie).  These two players represent the largest financial investments Baltimore has made in the draft during the Camden Depot Shadow Draft/Shadow System project.  The returns on these two investments have been solid thus far, and each look poised to potentially start adding some MLB value as early as 2013.

Conversely, we went a higher-ceiling/lower-probability talent in Derek "Bubba" Starling (of, Rookie Burlington), who is currently raking in the Appy Rookie League, but remains a good three years away in all likelihood.  Our "safe" high ceiling selection of Anthony Rendon (3b, Class A-SS Auburn) started the season with Class A-Adv. Potomac but lasted just two games before being sidelined for most of 2012 with another injury.  When healthy, Rendon is a potential monster and advanced enough to quickly move up the ranks.  The question remains whether he can stay on the field long enough to realize his immense upside.  Finally, our international "big fish" Miguel Sano (3b, Class A Beloit) has shown some of the best power in the minors, but remains a number of evolutions away from being ready to tackle upper-level pitching.

In short, the Bundy/Machado vs. Starling/Rendon battle has just started, but the Orioles duo is comfortably ahead at this point.  Time will tell if the additional investment in Sano turns out to be a nice pickup for the Depot, or just the next in a growing list of international bonus babies that fail to provide a worthy return on investment.

Point Depot
Zack Wheeler (rhp, Triple-A Buffalo) was promoted last week and now sits one phone call away from breaking through into the Majors.  Our selection of Wheeler in contrast to Baltimore's selection of Matt Hobgood (rhp, Unassigned) is a clear point to the Depot's process.  Wheeler may not get a cup of coffee this year, but seems ready to compete for a spot in the Mets rotation next April.

Looking at the Tier 1 talents in each system, the Depot has a little more volume up top, which spreads some of the risk of attrition that is generally found even among top prospects.  Bundy and Machado are currently the top two talents of the eight listed, but having a little more depth probably frees up the Depot system to include a Tier 1 talent or two in trade without striking a heavy blow to the overall quality of the system. 

Finally, the Depot system appears a little deeper in Tier 2 talent.  This is not a huge deal, but it does accomplish the same things that the Tier 1 depth accomplishes, on a slightly smaller scale.  First, it is a weapon against general prospect attrition, particularly on the pitching side.  Second, it frees up pieces to potentially be included in trades, with system depth an issue sure to be discussed come this winter when the Orioles are looking to acquire talent for a 2013 run.

Already contributing
For Baltimore, Xavier Avery (of, Triple-A Norfolk) has already received his first taste of big league action this summer.  He and L.J. Hoes (of, Triple-A Norfolk) should be in a position to compete for a spot on the 25-man roster in 2013.  Both can be fringe regulars, with Hoes having the better chance at growing into a true first division starter off the strength of his bat.  Outside of those two, Baltimore is looking primarily at relief arms as the next most likely to reach The Bigs -- Mike Wright (rhp, Double-A Bowie) and Mike Belfiore (lhp, Double-A Bowie) are probably closest, with Clayton Schrader (rhp, Double-A Bowie) capable of making the jump next year provided he finds a little more consistency.

On the Depot side, Brandon Crawford (ss, San Francisco Giants) is in the midst of his first full season at the MLB level, serving as essentially a glove-only shortstop.  Over 161 total Major League games, Crawford has amassed 1.7 rWAR and 1.2fWAR.  Earlier this month, Josh Rutledge (ss, Colorado Rockies) received his first call-up the Majors, and has been highly productive since arriving. Through 71 plate appearances over 17 games, Rutledge has a triple-slash line of .382/.394/.706, with 12 of his 26 hits going for extra bases.  His on-base percentage will likely be driven by average, but his bat-to-ball skills are solid enough to make it work (and he will certainly walk more than he has thus far).

Waiting in the wings for the Depot are Zack Wheeler (discussed above) and Roger Kieschnick (of, Triple-A Fresno).  Outside of those two, the Depot's talent is probably another year away from contributing at the MLB level, with the note that Rendon has the ability to break-in during the 2013 season if he stays healthy (though it's doubtful Washington would push him that hard).  Overall, Wheeler is the best soon-to-be-promoted prospect between the two lists.  Rutledge gets a small edge over Avery and Hoes as an up-the-middle talent with the bat to start and the glove to stick at a middle-infield position. Kieschnick and Crawford each slot in slightly behind the Hoes/Avery duo.

Investment delta; comparison moving forward
As noted in our earlier examination of the Shadow Drafts, and the current Shadow System Top 25, the Depot spent about $5.7 MM more in the draft over the past five seasons than did the Orioles. Additionally, the Depot signed Miguel Sano for $3.6 MM, bringing the total investment delta up to about $9.3 MM, or $1.14 MM more a year on average in the draft between 2008 and 2012, and a lump payment of $3.6 during the 2009 off-season.

With Avery, Hoes, Crawford, Rutledge, Wheeler, and Kieschnick all likely to get significant MLB time next year, and the younger draftees accumulating more of a track record in the minors, 2013 should be the first year where we can sit down and start to really compare returns on investment.

As we try to note this as often as possible, the concept of a Shadow Draft and Shadow System is not to try and determine whether our process is better or worse than the process in Baltimore.  It is simply an attempt to put into practice the ideas we put forth on this website.  Hopefully, we do okay for ourselves, and along the way are able to provide some hard evidence as to why you might put some weight into our thoughts on prospects moving forward.

In any event, we hope you enjoy following the Shadow System with us, and encourage you to share your thoughts on what we've done over the past five drafts.

Midseason update: Top 25 Orioles Prospect Links
1 - 10 / 11 - 20 / 21 - 25 / vs The Depot

Trade deadline recap

So, the pre-waiver trade deadline passed with little fanfare.  Rumors circulated regarding Chase Headley (3b, San Diego Padres) and Joe Blanton (rhp, Philadelphia Phillies), but come 4:01p.m. (Eastern) nothing materialized.  There were some common themes running through the Twitter account of fans yesterday -- here are some thoughts on those items:

Issue #1 As buyers Baltimore should have beat offers for Francisco Liriano (traded by Twins to White Sox), Shane Victorino (traded by Phillies to Dodgers), or Travis Snider (traded by Blue Jays to Pirates)

The important thing to keep in mind when it comes to "why didn't they beat Team X's package for Player Y?" is that all teams are not afforded the same opportunity when it comes to trade talks.  That is, when a team is looking for a particular return on Player Y, it is not uncommon for that team to find a package they like and are comfortable with, then shift to fleece mode.

The simple example would be the Phillies being content with the Dodgers deal for Victorino, then upping the request from other teams moving forward.  Any talks with Baltimore start with one of Arrieta or Matusz or Delmonico simply because the effort required to work out a package comparable to, or slightly better than, the Dodgers' offer isn't worth the time investment for the limited gain in value. 

Finally, relationships matter.  While it is unlikely that any teams are bending over backwards to "help" another org, a good relationship between front offices serves as ample lubrication for trade talks -- particularly smaller deals.  Part of the issue with Baltimore's convoluted decision-making tree in the past is that many teams are reluctant to start serious talks with Baltimore on a "sell to all" basis because, historically, it has not been likely that Baltimore will be able to give you that comfortable deal in a timely fashion, such that you can quickly shop around for the "higher priced" deals with others.

Item #2 As buyers, how does Baltimore not get a deal done for Chase Headley if they were asking for Jake Arrieta, Nicky Delmonico and Eduardo Rodriguez, as reported?! 

Let's assume this reported offer was true -- there are two ways to interpret this, with both interpretations ultimately arriving at the same point.

The first is that Baltimore was smart not to sell low on Arrieta and not to give up Delmonico and Rodriguez before they break out.  Headly is just one player solving an issue at third base and Baltimore is better off trying to find free agent help in the area than trading valuable prospects.

The counter is that Baltimore dropped the ball by not getting a clear upgrade in Headley, who would give them a middle-of-the-order bat, a solid defensive third baseman, and some cost certainty and stability over the next 2.5 years.  Arrieta has struggled to establish himself as a Major League starter and both Delmonico and Rodriguez are years away from being factors in Baltimore.

It is reasonable to have feelings for and against inaction on this front, but inaction in and of itself really isn't reducible to "right" or "wrong" in this context -- at least not yet.  In fact, Orioles fans would be best off if the reported offer were true, as it would be an excellent measuring stick for the organization's current valuation process.

Inaction in any form at the deadline is essentially "doubling down" on what you currently have -- be it for 2012 or future seasons.  In the instant case, Baltimore would be quite clearly standing behind Arrieta, Delmonico and Rodriguez, giving fans three players to watch closely. How do these players develop and how do they fit into the team's future?  Will Arrieta be re-made under the tutelage of Rick Peterson?  Will Delmonico and/or Rodriguez blossom into potential impact talents?  Will any of these players be packaged in a larger or more Baltimore-friendly move this off-season?

Assuming the reported trade package was true, Baltimore fans have a window into the decision making process in the Orioles front office.  At minimum, the progress of these three players should provide bloggers and fans with a lot to talk about over the coming 24-months or so.

And just so that we cover all bases, we should all keep in mind that "rumored" trade packages, even from the most connected of sources, tend to be incomplete. 


Item #3 Baltimore is not talented enough to stick with the pack in 2012 so it's best to play out the season and look to get better for 2013 and beyond
 
I had the start of this conversation with some readers in the comment section of yesterday's "What 'Going for it' would mean..." piece.  Generally, Jon and I have been holders of the above opinion in some form or another throughout the season.  I do think it is worth discussing the counter argument, which yesterday's piece did, albeit in a tangential manner.

Baltimore finds itself in striking distance of a wild-card spot at the beginning of August.  Much of this can be attributed to occurrences analysts would generally attribute to luck (e.g extra inning win percentage, win percentage in one-run games, etc.).  It can be argued that the team outplaying its actual talent level in 2012 has placed the Orioles in a competitive position that might not be obtainable in 2013, and accordingly Baltimore needs to strike while they have the opportunity to sneak into the playoffs.

Payroll limitations are likely to limit Baltimore's options on the free agency market.  2013's payroll will include another year of $10 MM to Brian Roberts, a raise to $15 MM for Nick Markakis, and another $4 MM to Tsuyoshi Wada. That's around $30 MM dedicated to three players who, in the aggregate, have produced about 0 Wins Above Replacement in 2012. Put another way, based upon 2012 performances, Baltimore has about one-third of their upper-limit payroll allotment for 2013 tied-up in fungible assets.

Now, that is a little disingenuous in that Markakis has been more productive as of late, and looping him in with Roberts and Wada simply serves to make the "wasted money" pile look bigger than it is.  The same, the most productive Markakis has been in the last four years was his 2010 2.6 fWAR (WAR as computed by Fangraphs.com) and 2009 2.9 rWAR (WAR as computed by Baseball-reference.com).  Even the rosiest of projections for 2013 have to reasonably keep Markakis at around a 3.5 WAR player, equal to about $15 MM of production on the free market.

Sure there is an outside shot that the 2008 breakout Markakis still exists somewhere within the right fielder, but at this point, Baltimore probably has to proceed with the expectation that they will be fortunate to get just about what they are paying for in 2013 and 2014 when it comes to Markakis -- that means they need surplus value elsewhere or they need to pay a premium to get that value on the free agency market.

Totaling the remaining amounts owed for 2013 and including raises for arbitration-eligible players, Baltimore looks to be on the hook for around $67 to 70 MM, leaving about $15 to 20 MM to spend in the free agent marketplace.  Translation?  In order to compete in 2013, Baltimore needs stark improvement of their baseline in-house talent and another multi-month run of outperforming their peripherals.

Now, maybe that simply means that Baltimore should be building to 2014, at which point they hope to have more payroll flexibility (but also more holes to fill).  That is probably the most prudent approach, and might end-up a successful approach with some shrewd roster management and some luck in Manny Machado, Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman and Jonathan Schoop all developing quickly into productive Major Leaguers.

A front office person, however, has to at least consider that the 2012 Orioles, regardless of how they got to this point, may very well represent the best chance the organization will have at a playoff appearance over the next three years.  That is a scary call to make, and a big reason the thirty men in charge of these calls receive the compensation they do.


Final thoughts on prospects

Feel free to stop reading here if you don't like preachy vibes.  These last few sentences are just a reminder that Machado, Bundy, Gausman and Schoop are not saviors for this organization.  They will hopefully play a part in Baltimore's eventual return to the post-season, but that's all they can play -- a part.  Further, while prospects need to be viewed on a case-by-case basis, history tells us that it is unlikely that an organization will have four top 100-ish prospects all reach their upper-tier projections, let alone all reach those projections at the same time.

The same, the likes of Parker Bridwell, Eduardo Rodriguez, Nicky Delmonico, LJ Hoes, and Xavier Avery are more likely to fall somewhere on the spectrum of "up-and-down guy" to fringe regular than they are to blossom into true impact talents.  That's not to say they are without value, but hording Tier 2 talents because you don't have many to begin with is not a viable approach to amassing Major League talent, and it's not an advisable approach for strengthening the system.  As is always the case, your process will reveal itself as effective or not effective.  If things aren't working, you are either drafting/signing the wrong players or you are failing to properly develop them once in-house.

Baltimore has continued to lag behind its contemporaries in stocking their system with talent, and then developing that talent.  In order for the Orioles to be a competitive team, be it in 2013 or 2023, they need to improve in their acquisition and development of amateur talent.  I know this isn't a new message, but it is one that bears repeating.

What "Going for it" would mean...

EDIT -- One important note about 2012 in particular that I omitted from the summary below -- the first round of the playoffs after the play-in game will be 2-3 format, so the wild-card team will host the first two games of the series. That means if Baltimore were to make the playoffs and win the play-in game, they would be guaranteed two home games and the accompanying revenue. Doesn't greatly change the calculus, but an important distinction for 2012 nonetheless.

Throughout the 2012 season Jon and I have been dubious of Baltimore's chances to compete for a playoff spot this year.  On July 31st, the last pre-waiver day for trades, we remain dubious.  But, because trades are generally fun fodder for the blogosphere and message boards, and because it is an interesting exercise in any event, I decided to play Devil's advocate this morning and come up with my "all in" approach to the trade deadline.

In truth, I can see a real argument for the below moves, as I think there is something to the idea that Baltimore has played well above its head over these first 100 or so games and they should make use of the "free wins" they've grabbed thus far.  However, the moves I advocate below really only work as a package, and even then require further financial investment come the free agent signing period in November.

Finally, the two trade partners I have targeted, San Diego and Miami, have the leverage to demand fairly significant overpayment for their talent, and Baltimore prospects such as Nicky Delmonico (1b, Class A Delmarva), Xavier Avery (of, Triple-A Norfolk), and Eduardo Rodriguez (rhp, Class A Delmarva) do not have the trade value that many Orioles fans wish/think they have. That is nothing to say of the fall in value we have seen from projectable righty Parker Bridwell (rhp, Class A Delmarva), whose stock as taken a significant enough tumble so as not to even be included in the two discussed moves.

So, what does "going for it" look like?

The trades...
Trade 1Baltimore Orioles receive
Chase Headley (3b, San Diego Padres)
2013 Draft Competitive Balance (1st pick following 2nd Rd)

San Diego Padres receive
Jake Arrieta (rhp, Triple-A Norfolk)
Jonathan Schoop (2b, Double-A Bowie)
Eduardo Rodriguez (rhp, Class A Delmarva)
Mike Wright (rhp, Double-A Bowie)

Trade 2
Baltimore Orioles receive
Josh Johnson (rhp, Miami Marlins)
Emilio Bonifacio (2b/of, Miami Marlins)

Miami Marlins receive
Manny Machado (ss, Double-A Bowie)
Nicky Delmonico (1b, Class A Delmarva)
Xavier Avery (of, Triple-A Norfolk)
Brian Matusz (lhp, Triple-A Norfolk)
2013 Draft Competitive Balance (4th pick following Supp-1st Rd)

Why it is necessary (and okay) to overpay
Josh Johnson is signed through 2013 and Chase Headley is signed through 2014. Emilio Bonifacio is under team control through 2014.  The bottom line is that neither Miami nor San Diego have to move these pieces now, as opposed to in the off-season or not at all.

As briefly mentioned above, making an aggressive move like this is an attempt to leverage the "free wins" Baltimore has grabbed this year -- loosely, the degree to which they have outperformed their talent and peripherals.  It is important to aggressively pursue the playoffs in 2012 particularly if you believe that as of July 31, 2012 Baltimore is in a better position to make the playoffs than they might be at any point next year based on true talent level, and taking into account off-season moves.

Finally, overpayment can be tolerable if you are dealing from redundancy or from pieces that are not essential for future success. More on this below.

What it means for 2012
Rotation - Johnson, Chen, Tillman, Britton, Gonzalez
It isn't the best rotation in the American League, but it does give Baltimore the big arm up top and bumps each of the other arms down the chain where their talent level fits more comfortably.  You lose minor league arms in Rodriguez, Wright, Arrieta and Matusz, but none of those are required contributors for 2012.

Order Bonifacio (2b), Markakis (rf), Headley (3b), Jones (cf) Davis (dh), Betemit/Reynolds (1b platoon), Hardy (ss) Wieters (c), Ford (lf)
Bonifacio gives you an on-base weapon and speed at the top of the order, while also providing much needed production at second base.  Additionally, he gives you versatility as a capable outfielder and middle-infielder.

Headley is a legit number three hitter on a first tier team and interjects a good overall bat between Markakis and Jones.  Again, it isn't the best in the American League, but it does represent the potential for a big improvement with a minimal number of moves.  If you haven't yet read Jon's piece on the potential upgrade provided by inserting a legit third baseman into the order and having Reynolds/Betemit split duties at first base, you should check it out here -- great work.

What it means for 2013-14
Rotation - Johnson, Chen, Hammel, Britton, Tillman
This is a solid rotation that could be further improved through trade or free agency.  My preference would be to invest heavily on the offensive side, relying on Johnson to lead the staff in 2013 and Dylan Bundy (rhp, Class A-Adv. Frederick) to contribute in some form in 2013 with Kevin Gausman (rhp, unassigned) following in early 2014.  Bobby Bundy (rhp, Double-A Bowie) could be ready to provide some value at some point next year once he has addressed the bone spurs that appear to have slowed his development some this year.

Order - Bonifacio (2b), Markakis (rf), Headley (3b), Jones (cf), Davis (dh), Betemit (1b), Hardy (ss), Wieters (c), Hoes (lf)
Again, this is a solid collection that could potentially be upgraded to top notch with a significant financial investment.  Since we are operating under the assumption that the Orioles have maintained fan interest throughout 2012 and seen an influx in season ticket money, you go big here.

Mike Napoli (c/1b) could rotate between first base and designated hitter, while giving Showalter an option behind the plate that allows him to actually rest Wieters as he should be rested (another discussion to be had...).  The Wieters/Napoli/Betemit/Davis combo would provide plenty of pop between catcher/first base/designated hitter.

The obvious "homerun" is to take the plunge and throw a truckload of money at Josh Hamilton (cf), shifting him over to left field.  Baltimore is currently committed to under $60 million for next year.  Adding salaries for Johnson, Headley, Napoli and Hamilton could be a $50 million investment, meaning Baltimore has to be willing to spike their payroll in order to keep momentum moving forward.  This is a huge hurdle, but I think necessary if you are putting together a "go for it now" plan. The result is this lineup:

Betemit (2b), Markakis (rf), Headley (3b), Hamilton (lf), Jones (cf), Napoli (1b), Davis/Betemit (dh), Wieters (c), Hardy (ss)

Summary
This is a huge risk, both in potential future value traded and increased financial investment in payroll. All of that, and it is far from a guarantee that Baltimore will realize a playoff appearance in 2012 or 2013.

What this type of "all in" approach does is attempt to make use of a 2012 performance that has thus far been well beyond the Orioles' talent level without sacrificing the ability for the team to put together a competitive squad in 2013 and the further near term.   It should hold fan interest through end of season and attempts to build season ticket influx with a strong finish, the addition of known names such as Josh Johnson and Chase Headley, and signing of a couple more known names in Napoli and Hamilton.

I began this piece with a note that this was me playing Devil's advocate.  I continue to believe that this type of approach requires too much luck, as well as an aggressive off-season to sustain success, and further development of some stalled prospects in order to help the farm system bounce back.

The prudent course of action is probably a small move to try and hold the team together in 2012 as best as possible, while hoping for continued development from Machado and Schoop, as well as the brothers Bundy.  Gausman should be a nice addition, as well, and there is of course a chance that someone like Delmonico or Rodriguez ultimately develops into a legit above-average contributor.

2012 has been exciting in a lot of ways, as the Orioles have won more than they have lost and they continue to play meaningful games as we head into August.  At the same time, the minor league system has not had a good summer, while several AL East systems have taken steps forward.  The stark reality may be that, while this is not the right time for the Orioles to cash in prospects and push their chips into the center of the table, it may be the closest they come to a shot at a playoff spot before 2014, at which point, if everything breaks right, they will have Machado, Schoop, Gausman and the Bundys contributing.

Of course, Orioles fans are well aware of the dangers of counting on the cavalry...

Midseason update: Top 25 Orioles Prospects (21- 25 and five to know)

The second part of our midseason update 25 double-feature rolls out below, covering prospects 21 through 25, plus five more to keep tabs on for the rest of the year and 2013 and one prospect that may be ready for a significant developmental change.  For a look at prospects 1 through 20 check out Part 1 (1 - 10) and Part 2 (11 - 20) of this series.  All ages listed are as of July 15, 2012:

21. John Ruettiger (of, Double-A Bowie) / Age: 22y10m / Prev. Rank: Unranked
We noted last fall that Ruettiger needed to adopt a "top of the order mentality" at the plate in order to carve-out a productive professional career. Thus far in 2012, he has done just that, seeing a big bump in his on-base production while maintaining is contact ability.  With a recent promotion to Double-A Bowie, Ruettiger is setting himself up for a chance to reach Triple-A Norfolk as soon as Hoes and Avery are vacated to either the 25-man roster or another organization.  Ruettiger still likely profiles best as an extra outfielder with a bottom-third bat, but if he continues to put together productive at bats, he could see a bump in his projection. His upside will always be limited by his utter lack of pop, so defense and getting on-base will need to be his calling cards.

22. Mike Belfiore (lhp, Double-A Bowie) / Age: 23y9m / Prev. Rank: N/A
Belfiore made the full conversion to relief work this year and has taken quickly to the role, carving-up the hitter friendly Cal League before being shipped to Baltimore in exchange for struggling Triple-A corner bat Josh Bell.  A closer at Boston College, the Diamondbacks looked to parlay his starter's build and solid 1-2 fastball-slider combo into a potential #4 arm, but the starter workload has proven to be too much for the lefty.  He currently sports a solid average change-up that can flash above-average and gives him the requisite weapon to work to both righties and lefties.  Given the state of the O's system, Belfiore could be a top 15 prospect if he continues to thrive at Bowie, and could break camp with the O's in 2013.

23. Tyler Townsend (1b, Double-A Bowie) / Age: 24y2m / Prev. Rank: 21
Townsend has yet to stay on the field for more than 72 games in a single season since starting his professional career in 2009, once again missing significant time this summer having logged just 170 plate appearances in 43 games.  The left-swinging first baseman can tantalize with solid pop (both 6'o'clock and in-game), but there's a fair amount of swing-and-miss to his game to go along with it.  Because he can't seem to stay on the field, it's tough to get an accurate gauge as to what Townsend's potential truly is.  He will turn 25 early next year, so Baltimore has little choice but to start pushing him up the ladder in hopes that they can realize some return on investment. 

 24. Zach Davies (rhp, Class A Delmarva) / Age: 19y5m / Prev. Rank: Unranked
Were it not for his lack of projection (both in physicality and in stuff), Davies would rank much higher on this list.  He is a pitchability arm with four workable offerings that could each be average after some maturation and refinement.  His fastball can come with some bore, but lacks plane or angle due to his compact frame and wingspan.  He shows aptitude for each of his secondaries considering age, but none project as a true swing-and-miss pitch at the upper levels.  The upside appears to be that of a #5 starter -- perhaps a #4 if everything breaks right.  More likely, he profiles as an up-and-down swing man capable of logging some innings out of the pen when needed, but lacking the stuff to turn over a line-up more than once.

25. Dan Klein (rhp, Double-A Bowie-DL) / Age: 23y11m / Prev. Rank: 10
In November we pointed out the issues with Baltimore's attempts to develop Klein as a starter, not the least of which is the fact that he had not surpassed 52 innings pitched in a season since he did so back in 2006 between his high school junior spring and summer.  After a SLAP tear in his labrum lead to a pre-mature end to his 2011 season, he lost his entire 2012 campaign after another shoulder procedure was deemed necessary this April.  He still checks-in on this list due to the fact that, when healthy, he is essentially Major League ready as a run-of-the-mill middle-relief arm.  At this point, however, the 24-year old will be happy to stay on the mound for six straight months at any level. 


Five more to know:
Miguel Chalas (rhp, Class A Delmarva) / Age: 20y0m / Prev. Rank: Unranked
Baltimore continues to keep the undersized Chalas in a rotation in an effort to build up endurance and keep the door open for him as a starter.  His whippy arm and inconsistent path make repeatability an issue, particularly with his slurvy breaking ball.  A "young 20", there is time for improvement, though it remains a long shot that he'll stick as a starter for much longer.  He has been hittable in his first year of full season ball, and Baltimore may be best suited to shift him to the pen and let him air it out.

Jaime Esquivel (rhp, Class A-SS Aberdeen) / Age: 20y1m  / Prev. Rank: Unranked
Esquivel was sharp in 2011 between Rookie ball and Short-season Aberdeen, but an extended look at the patient college bats that flood the NY-Penn League post-draft has resulted in a lot of walks and a fair amount of hits.  Esquivel has the body of a starter, but a limited repertoire and, thus far, an inability to locate both in and out of the zone.  He remains an arm of interest, but (like many Orioles prospects this summer) has failed to take the next step forward thus far in 2012.  He will look to finish out 2012 on a high note and will likely tackle Class A Delmarva next year.   

Henry Urrutia (of, unassigned) / Age:25y5m  / Prev. Rank: N/A
Urrutia has thus far been the "premier" Latin American signing for the O's under Dan Duquette's front office, agreeing earlier this month to a minor league contract and a $778,500 signing bonus -- an investment approximately equal to an early-2nd Rounder in the draft.  According to Baseball America, Urrutia profiles as a corner outfielder defensively, but may lack the power generally expected out of that position.  Already 25-years old, the former member of the Cuban national team will likely start his professional career in the States at Double-A Bowie.  His progress in 2013 will be an interesting look into the current scouting philosophies of the organization on the international front -- the validity of which has fallen under heavy scrutiny over the past eight months after some dubious signings (and one very public cancelled signing).

Hector Veloz (3b, Rookie GCL) / Age: 18y5m  / Prev. Rank: Unranked
Veloz was our DSL player of the year for Baltimore in 2011 and could have easily ranked in the top 25 portion of this series.  He is working through the Gulf Coast League (Rookie League) and continues to make strides defensively at the hot corner. His ticket to the Bigs, however, remains his bat.  Still capable of good pull-side power, Veloz needs to work on refining his overall approach in order to increase his square rate and cut down on the number of at bats he gives away.  Veloz is years away from having his ultimate projection determined, but for now he remains one of the true "sleepers" in the system, capable of developing into a legit top 10 organizational talent. 

Aaron Wirsch (lhp, unassigned-DL) / Age: 21y8m / Prev. Rank: Unranked
Wirsch logged just 10 innings last year before suffering a UCL tear in his pitching elbow and undergoing Tommy John surgery.  A projectable lefty out of El Toro HS (Lake Forest, Calif.), Wirsch has already put on close to 25 or 30 pounds since signing with Baltimore.  He is a true wild card, as the the former San Diego Torrero commit has yet to stay on the mound for any significant stretch of time.  Baltimore will hope to see a fresh and rejuvinated arm come spring 2013, and at 21-years old come November, there is still time for Baltimore to run Wirsch out as a starter with a limited innings count in order to determine what they have here.  Highly touted for his raw power as a first baseman back in high school, Baltimore also has the back-up option of working him out on the positional side if all else fails.

Switch it up:
Mychal Givens (rhp, Class A Delmarva) / Age: 22y2m / Prev. Rank: Unranked
It is officially time for Baltimore to waive the white flag on the "Givens as an infielder" project.  The former Plant HS (Tampa, Fla.) closer was able to hit the mid-90s as a prep arm, with the makings of a workable slider.  Fall Instructionals and Winter Ball should be utilized to try the now-22-year old on the bump -- it may be the only hope the organization has at recovering some of the 2nd Round investment made.

Midseason update: Top 25 Orioles Prospect Links
1 - 10 / 11 - 20 / 21 - 25 / vs The Depot