09 December 2011

2012 Top 25 Prospects: #11 - 15

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For prospects 11-25 on our Top 25, write-ups will be abbreviated, with five prospects examined in each of the next three pieces. Prospects 11-15 rank as follows:

#11 Xavier Avery
#12 Ryan Adams
#13 Glynn Davis
#14 Eduardo Rodriguez
#15 Michael Wright

Player: Xavier Avery
Position: center field/left field
Ht/Wt: 5-11/180
B/T: L/L
Age at 11/2011: 21y11m
2011 level(s): Double-A Bowie
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Overall Future Potential: 46-50
Prospect Grade: B-

*Click here for primer on Grades

Discussion:
Xavier Avery remains an upside prospect with promise, despite completing his third full season with strikeouts in over 20% of his plate appearances. The reason for optimism is simple -- he continues to keep his head above water while being promoted by the O's and remaining one of the youngest players in the league, year-in and year-out. He will start 2012 at age 22, and could get a bump to Norfolk following a solid AFL campaign and provided he shows well in the Spring. A speed-first talent, Avery is among the fastest prospects in the system (along with Kyle Hudson and Glynn Davis -- all "80" runners on the 20/80 scouting scale). His heavy left/right split could spell a future as part of a platoon. If he can tighten-up his routes in center field, he should have easy value as a fourth outfielder. His ability to improve against lefties and to learn to more consistently ID off-speed will determine if he can become a regular at the highest level.

Ceiling: Average starting center fielder on first division team
Floor: Four-A
Projected: 4th or 5th outfielder on first division team

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Player: Ryan Adams
Position: second base/third base
Ht/Wt: 5-11/185
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 24y7m
2011 level(s): Triple-A Norfolk; MLB Baltimore
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Overall Future Potential: 44-48
Prospect Grade: C+

*Click here for primer on Grades

Discussion:
Offensively, Adams will swing and miss a fair amount due to average bat speed, and top velocity will likely always give him trouble. But he keeps his swing simple and tight, and finds ways to get the barrel to the ball. His raw power is above-average, with potential average in-game applicability. He could carveout a spot as a 6 or 7 hitter in a first division line-up if he finds enough gaps and is able to produce 15 or so homeruns per year. Defensively, Adams still struggles with his footwork, though he has made strides in cleaning-up the set-up on his throws (which in turn has improved his play-to-play accuracy). He is the type of player that will always need to work to maintain an adequate defensive disposition, but could be making enough progress to be passable at either third base or second base. Adams could be adequate as an inexpensive bridge to Miclat, Hoes or Schoop, but probably profiles best as a bench bat and occasional starter at either second or third.

Ceiling: Fringe-average second baseman on first division team
Floor: Four-A
Projected: Useful bench player

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Player: Glynn Davis
Position: center field
Ht/Wt: 6-3/170
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 19y11m
2011 level(s): Rookie GCL Orioles; Short-season A Aberdeen; Advanced-A Frederick
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Overall Future Potential: 44-48
Prospect Grade: C+

*Click here for primer on Grades

Discussion:
Glynn Davis ranked as the 16th best prospect in O's system this time last year -- a lofty spot considering he signed as an undrafted free agent out of Catonsville CC (Md.) earlier that summer. In his first full year of pro ball the center fielder made solid progress, showing well in the Gulf Coast and Aberdeen before making a one-game appearance with the Keys. The speedy Davis is a true "80" runner on the 20-80 scouting scale and shows enough feel to project as an average to above-average defender. He has begun to improved his approach this summer both offensively and defensively, but remains very much a work in progress. Davis is similar in body type to Hunter Pence, though he lacks Pence's current physicality. Offensively he good develop an average hit tool with fringe-average power, provided he continues to add strength. If he can develop an on-base approach, he could be useful as a #1 or #2 hitter capable of reaching base via infield hit and stretching extra bases as he works out the gaps. He'll need to mature, physically, but has time to do so. He should get the gig as starting center fielder in Delmarva next summer.

Ceiling: Average center fielder on first division team
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: 4th or 5th outfielder on 1st division team

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Player: Eduardo Rodriguez
Position: left-handed pitcher
Ht/Wt: 6-2/175
B/T: L/L
Age at 11/2011: 18y7m
2011 level(s): Rookie GCL Orioles; Short-season A Aberdeen
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Overall Future Potential: 44-48
Prospect Grade: C+

*Click here for primer on Grades

Discussion:
Eduardo Rodriguez does not have putaway stuff, but there is a chance for three workable pitches and he had them all on display through his ten starts and one relief appearance in the 2011 GCL Orioles season. The 18-year old has a broad frame and thickening physique, which bodes well for his future physicality. His motion is generally loose and easy, coming with a clean three-quarters release and staying under control throughout. He frequently fails to get on top of his breaking ball -- a pitch that will flash some bite but for now looks like a future average offering due to rotation and plane. His fastball is an upper-80s offering that bumps 91/92 mph, and he can spot it to both sides of the plate. His change-up has the potential to outdistance his breaker as his go-to secondary offering, and he shows feel for it at an early stage. Rodriguez likely tops out as a mid-rotation arm, more likely to fall somewhere in the back-end of a rotation. None of his offerings project to plus right now, but his fastball and off-speed could grade out as above-average as he continues to refine

Ceiling: #3 starter on first division team
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: #4/#5 starter on first division team

Player: Michael Wright
Position: right-handed pitcher
Ht/Wt: 6-5/195
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 21y10m
2011 level(s): Rookie GCL Orioles; Short-season Aberdeen; Class A Delmarva
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference
Overall Future Potential: 44-48
Prospect Grade: C+

*Click here for primer on Grades

Discussion:
Mike Wright started seven games for Aberdeen but may fit better as a sinker/slider reliever, long term, in spite of his workhorse build. He has a short arm circle on the back side and low arm slot, creating a tough angle for hitters to try and square his sinker/slider combo. His sinker is a low-90s offering that can bump mid-90s in short stints, and his slider compliments it well. He spots both pitches to both sides of the plate. His offspeed lags behind in development, and will likely be a focus for 2012. If he can develop a useful change to go with a solid sinker/slider combo, he could top out as a mid-rotation innings-eater.

Ceiling: #3/#4 starter on a first division team
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: Middle-relief arm

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