29 December 2011

Trading Adam Jones: NL West Edition

The post will focus on a baseline that was suggested by a scout.  So, yes, the opinion of a single professional is how we will value Jones' worth here.  What is that worth?  It was posited that Adam Jones would be worth a top 25 player, a top 50 player, and a top 100 player.  In other words, I would translate this as meaning a A-, B+ and B level player.  One final way of looking at it, a 60, a 56, and a 52.  That means that some in this business think very highly of Adam Jones.  We at the Depot have not thought as highly of Jones in the past, but what matters is who values him the most.

This third part will focus on packages from NL West teams.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Tyler Skaggs, RHP
Matt Davidson, 1B/3B
A.J. Pollock, LF

The is likely just a simple exercise.  Chris Young mans center for the Diamondbacks.  He is, of course, a good center fielder.  Backing him up now is Gerrard Parra, who should be a starting centerfielder on a first division club or a starting left fielder on a second division club.  Adam Jones is just not a player of need for them.

Colorado Rockies
Drew Pomeranz, LHP
Dexter Fowler, CF
Kent Mathes, LF

Dexter Fowler is the Rockies' starting CF.  His defense is less than impressive and Jones might be an upgrade.  Jones' offensive production is also slightly greater than what Fowler is capable of.  This package delivers a top notch pitcher, a replacement in center field with some potential upside, and a left fielder who has a slight chance to turn into something special.  Pomeranz was acquired from the Indians and has a 2 slot ceiling.  He throws in the low 90s with a plus curveball.  He spent some time in the Majors last year, but could be served with some time in AAA.  However, he may be one of those lefties whose stuff is so good and polished that the Minors are just not enough to challenge him to get better.  This is similar to the issue with Matusz as he can take care of AAA hitters, but has troubles at the Major League level.  Fowler has three years of control left and profiles as Adam Jones light.  He does not have the raw power Jones has, but is able to use his speed on the base paths to work extra base hits.  Kent Mathes is a prospect who has had to deal with reworking his swing and staying healthy over the past few years.  He comes into AA as a 25 yo.  There is a good upside there.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Nate Eovaldi, RHP
Allen Webster, RHP
Garrett Gould, RHP

Matt Kemp.  No Benjamins.

San Diego Padres
Anthony Rizzo, 1B
Jedd Gyorko, 3B
Casey Kelly, RHP

They like Cameron Maybin and also have a money issue.

San Francisco Giants
Gary Brown, CF
Tommy Joseph, C
Ehire Adrianza, SS

The Giants need someone like Jones badly.  He could vastly improve their outfield.  However, Brian Sabean has proven reluctant to deal what remains of his elite prospects, Gary Brown.  Brown is a couple years off, but profiles as an average to above average center fielder with a solid offensive profile.  The Giants appear to be so enamored with Brown that they may not see the need to get the 'now' value Jones would provide and instead opt for putting Brown in the fast lane to the Majors.  It may be that the Giants are more comfortable dealing out Brandon Belt than Gary Brown.  Joseph has a plus plus power, but is a bit too aggressive at the plate.  The Giants have Posey and Susac in the system behind the plate and Belt at first, so Joseph may not be as highly valued.  If Belt was dealt then Francisco Peguera would replace Joseph here.  Adrianza would provide a plus defensive option at short stop for the Orioles.  His bat is iffy, but he could be useful if Machado has to shift to third.


This is the division of center fielders.  The Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Padres are set up the middle for a while.  The Rockies could improve themselves, but have slightly less production at about half the price in Dexter Fowler.  The Giants would be the team to improve the most from dealing for Adam Jones, but the question comes down to whether or not they would be willing to deal Gary Brown or Brandon Belt.  However, doing so would largely remove young cheap talent from their 40 man roster.  In the past, Sabean has not been afraid to go after the "proven" veteran instead of holding on to the prospect.  In light of that, they are probably the only team that might be interested in dealing for Jones in this division and that interest may not be incredibly high as the Giants might believe that Gary Brown could be big league ready soon.

No comments: