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For prospects 11-25 on our Top 25, write-ups will be abbreviated, with five prospects examined in each of the next three pieces. Prospects 16-20 rank as follows:
#16 Gabriel Lino
#17 Oliver Drake
#18 Matt Angle
#19 Ryan Berry
#20 Trent Mummey
Player: Gabriel Lino
Position: catcher
Ht/Wt: 6-3/195
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 18y6m
2011 level(s): Rookie GCL Orioles
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Overall Future Potential: 41-45
Prospect Grade: C+
*Click here for primer on Grades
Discussion:
Backstop Gabriel Lino has some offensive upside and a strong arm behind the dish, but may lack the lateral quickness needed to stick at catcher long term, particularly if he gets any bigger. He has soft hands but lets his glove float a little too often when receiving, which he'll need to tighten. The power is still raw, and does not project particularly well to a corner infield spot. Just 18-years old this year, he has time to work on his problem areas. Should his power tool emerge, he could shift to first base in order to allow more developmental focus on his bat. He is on the large side for a catcher, and it still remains to be seen how he will hold up physically over the stress of a long full season ball season.
Ceiling: Starting catcher on first division team
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: Fringe back-up catcher
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Player: Oliver Drake
Position: right-handed pitcher
Ht/Wt: 6-4/210
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 21y11m
2011 level(s): Advanced-A Frederick; Double-A Bowie; Triple-A Norfolk
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Overall Future Potential: 41-45
Prospect Grade: C+
*Click here for primer on Grades
Discussion:
Drake has a compact, under-control delivery and maintains a good line to home. His 89-92 mph fastball has some life and can induce soft contact down in the zone. His cut slider is a solid average to above-average offering, and he has also flashed average throughout his pro career with both his off-speed and curve. Drake has the body and endurance to chew through innings, but his stuff may be better suited for the pen, where his fastball/slider combo could be solid in middle-inning work. Baltimore will give him a second run at Bowie next year. If he stumbles, he could shift to the pen prior to promotion to Norfolk.
Ceiling: #4 starter on first division team
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: Middle-reliever
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Player: Matt Angle
Position: center field
Ht/Wt: 5-10/175
B/T: L/R
Age at 11/2011: 26y2m
2011 level(s): Triple-A Norfolk; MLB Baltimore
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Overall Future Potential: 38-43
Prospect Grade: C+
*Click here for primer on Grades
Discussion:
Matt Angle arrived in Baltimore this summer with largely the profile expected of him since he entered the system in 2007. Devoid of power, the former Buckeye center fielder fits best as a 4th outfielder capable of plus defense and solid value as a pinch runner. He could slot in as a placeholder in a starting lineup, but it is unlikely he will be able to handle Major League velocity on the inner-half to the point that he maintains even a passable on-base percentage. He should have the inside track on the 4th outfield spot this spring, depending on what transpires over the remainder of this off-season, and could see significant innings as a late-inning defensive replacement, pinch runner and Sunday starter.
Ceiling: 4th or 5th outfielder on first division team
Floor: Four-A
Projected: 4th or 5th outfielder on first division team
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Player: Ryan Berry
Position: right-handed pitcher
Ht/Wt: 6-1/195
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 23y2m
2011 level(s): Rookie GCL Orioles; Short-season A Aberdeen; Advanced-A Frederick
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Overall Future Potential: 38-43
Prospect Grade: C
*Click here for primer on Grades
Discussion:
Berry eased back into baseball activities in 2011, following off-season shoulder surgery. Originally projected as a potential mid-rotation starter, the resurfacing of shoulder issues may move Baltimore to shift the former Rice ace to the pen. When healthy, Berry boasts two curves, with a hard spike (or knuckle) curve being his best offering. His fastball is generally fringe-average velocity, sitting upper-80s to low-90s, but he could see a slight bump in velo if he shifts to shorter stints in the pen. 2011 was very much about building shoulder strength back-up; it will be interesting to see if Baltimore gives him another shot in a rotation or bumps him to relief to get him moving.
Ceiling: #4/#5 starter on first division team
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: Middle-reliever
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Player: Trent Mummey
Position: outfield
Ht/Wt: 5-10/185
B/T: L/L
Age at 11/2011: 22y11m
2011 level(s): Class A Delmarva; Advanced-A Frederick
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Overall Future Potential: 38-43
Prospect Grade: C
*Click here for primer on Grades
Discussion:
Trent Mummey missed time after crashing into an outfield wall in May, then again due to hamstring issues later in the summer. While he only logged 29 games and 134 plate appearances this summer (14 and 69 in Delmarva and Frederick, respectively), he showed a good feel for the game and solidified his status as a prospect. Mummey has limited ceiling, but plays a good center field, runs well, and has a short swing capable of spraying the gaps. He's undersized, but strong, and likely fits best as a future 4th outfielder. He gets tied up on the inner half when faced with good velocity, and his ability to adjust to more advanced secondary stuff at Double-A Bowie will say a lot about his future potential.
Ceiling: 4th outfielder on a first division team
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: Fringe bench
4 comments:
Though Angle is clearly "devoid of power", I wonder if there aren't reasons to be more bullish about his ability to get on base. Angle had a 12.6% walk rate in limited time last year, and has maintained a similar walk rate through much of his minor league career. Also, while Angle's AVG was .177 due to an abysmal .200 BABIP, his xBABIP was significantly higher (as is his career BABIP in the minors).
Is there no chance that Angle's basestealing and ability to take a walk could turn him into a serviceable lead-off hitter? Were Angle's 12.6% walk rate and 24.6% line drive rate just a fluke?
I am not speaking for Nick, but my opinion though is that it is difficult to use 95 plate appearances to say much of anything. It just is not a great sample size to work with.
Therefore, my focus is on his minor league statistics. You can see as he moved up the ladder that his walk rate has decreased at each stop. This is likely due to facing pitchers with better control of their pitches. In the Majors he will be facing pitchers that will be more capable of bearing down on him and will challenge him because there is little concern for Angle going yard. His walk rate should collapse.
As Jon points out, the problem with having no power at the MLB level is that pitchers have no reason to avoid contact. Angle will see a lot of fastballs on the inner-half.
He doesn't need to be a big homerun threat, but he needs to prove he has enough strength to meet that pitch with hard contact. I think he proves a bit shy in that department, ultimately.
4th outfield type is still valuable, certainly.
Sorry, didn't see the BABIP question. Same issue as power. Typical BABIP analysis is skewed by low power, or players that are inclined to softer contact. This isn't usually an issue when evaluating ML regulars, as there are very few players with this shortcoming getting regular ABs.
But when looking at transition from AAA to MLB, it is important to take into account whether the prospect has a low BABIP because he was a little unlucky or because he simply isn't making an average amount of hard contact.
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