The Real Tim Beckham

Tim Beckham, Photo via Keith Allison

Not to go all Charles Barkley on you, but just exactly who IS Tim Beckham? Post-hype sleeper breakout guy? Adequate big league shortstop? A guy who got hot for a month and is still the big draft bust he always was? The man who will play shortstop for the Baltimore Orioles in 2018? I think we can be somewhat safe in assuming that he is, at the least, probably that last one. The rest is a bit murkier, as is often the case with players like Tim Beckham.

Beckham was drafted number 1 in the 2008 draft by the Tampa Bay Rays, ahead of future MVP Buster Posey and future All Stars like Eric Hosmer and Gerrit Cole. Beckham was seen as an elite level athlete and was ranked as the number three prospect in the draft by Baseball America (who also ranked Pedro Alvarez and Brian Matusz one and two, so take that for what it's worth) , and as such it's not like the Rays went way out on a limb. Beckham projected as a five tool star in the big leagues, and given his age and position, the Rays made an easily defensible decision.

Fast forward to mid-2017, though, and the bloom was certainly off Beckham's rose. While he had finally become Tampa's starting shortstop and put up decent numbers in 2016, apparent attitude problems and other issues led the Rays to trade for Adeiny Hechevarria and thus to look to deal their former number 1 pick. Enter the Orioles, who saw J.J. Hardy's time in Baltimore running out and were in need of an upgrade at short to pursue their short lived playoff hopes. The Birds acquired Beckham at the trade deadline, and he immediately became Babe Ruth. In 132 plate appearances in August, Beckham hit a ridiculous .394/.417/.646 with 50 hits (second most hits in a month ever by an Oriole) and 6 homers, en route to nearly winning AL Player of the Month. This, it seemed, was the guy everyone had been waiting for. Matt Cassidy wrote a post looking at a possible extension and/or trade for Beckham in the off season, and he argued that while Beckham probably wasn't as good as he had shown in August, he also wasn't likely to totally crash and burn and that a long term deal could work out for both sides.

As Matt predicted, Beckham wasn't actually a .400+ hitter. Unfortunately, he's done worse than simply regress back to his career norms. Through September 18, Beckham was hitting just .183/.266/.394 in September with 4 homers. His defense has also left something to be desired, despite grading out fairly well in advanced metrics, committing 9 errors in a month and a half.

So, is this a slump or something more? Well, here's a few metrics for August and September. Try to figure out which month is the slump!

Month	K%	BB%	LD%	FB%	Hard Hit %	HR/FB
A	26.6	10.1	14.6	31.3	34	26.7
B	18.9	2.3	20.6	33.3	34.3	17.6

Kinda hard, right? In general, the numbers look pretty similar. What would explain the huge difference...oh, right, maybe BABIP.

Month	K%	BB%	LD%	FB%	Hard Hit %	HR/FB	BABIP
A	26.6	10.1	14.6	31.3	34	26.7	.196
B	18.9	2.3	20.6	33.3	34.3	17.6	.458

Obviously, month A is September and month B is August, but the biggest difference between the two months is that Beckham hit 250 points higher on balls in play in August than September. Now, he did have a higher line drive rate and lower K rate in August, but he has walked much more in September and has hit the ball just as hard. Now, we could look at this a few different ways. Either he got lucky in August, he got unlucky in September, or neither month is his true talent level. I'm gonna go with door number 3, here.

Beckham may very well be a late bloomer, but it was always very unlikely that he all of a sudden figured it all out and was becoming a superstar. By the same token, he certainly isn't the Paul Janish-esque player he's been so far in September. Beckham's 2016 numbers seem to a good approximation of his truth as a player: low walk, high K guy with some pop who can run a bit and hit the ball hard enough to put up an above average BABIP. Even in the September slump, the power he flashed in August has been maintained, and it's not at all unreasonable to view him as a 20-25 homer bat in a full season. With slightly more solid defense, that's a very valuable player.

It seems very likely that Beckham will be the starting shortstop for the O's in 2018. He's entering his first year of arbitration, but given that he has only had one full MLB season of at-bats, he will probably not be in line for a huge salary increase. Under those parameters, Beckham could be a very valuable player next season. A 2-3 win shortstop on a low money deal and under control through 2020 is a fine thing even if he isn't establishing himself as the player the Rays thought they were getting in 2008. It's not clear if the Orioles should invest real money in him or simply ride out his arbitration years, but it is clear that that the real Tim Beckham probably isn't a superstar. He might, however, be the shortstop of the future in Baltimore.

MLB Draft Value Trade Chart

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So, I was watching the NFL draft last Thursday and it got me to thinking about draft pick trade charts. As you probably know, Jimmy Johnson and the Cowboys used this in the late 80s and early 90s in order to make quick deals during the draft, ensuring them equal or greater value. A couple decades later, the system looks a bit simple due to how free agency and rookie slotting made the first round picks less valuable and later second through third round picks much more valuable. Throw in talent variance year by year and the concept still holds strong, but the chart itself is dated.

In baseball, there are no draft pick trades. It does seem though as if this will be included in the next bargaining agreement. I decided during the draft to look whether anyone had done such a thing as to create an actual draft board trade value chart for MLB. Sky Andrecheck almost did it while answering perhaps more interesting questions here. He mentions how the first few picks are much more valuable than the later ones, but does not put an actual value on them. That is probably the most prudent thing to do, but here . . . we are going to be a little irresponsible.

First things first: recreate the value chart by painstakingly redoing Andrecheck's work. What this graph illustrates is the power best fit line of players selected in the 1990-1999 draft and associated with their WAR during their first six years of MLB service.



As you can see from this chart and when you compare it to his previous one, these are somewhat comparable. There are not identical, but they are close enough. We may have some disagreement on what counted as the first six years of MLB tenure. I don't think the differences are all that significant.

Another thing to notice is just how exceptional the bust rate is with these picks. The formula on the chart shows the top pick in the draft being worth about 12.4 WAR over his first six years in the Majors. That is an average player. The fifteenth player selected has a WAR total of 2.4, which would be slightly above average if all of that was accomplished over a single season as opposed to six. Value drops quickly in the draft and risk becomes more and more apparent. For a savvy team, it may not be incredibly worthwhile to deal for anything outside of the first few selections. That is, unless you think your scouting department is better than everyone else's department.

After the jump, the quick and easy trade chart.

Round 1 Chart



Picks 31-300 Chart



So what could the Orioles get for their third overall pick?
In this scenario, we have the Orioles first round pick as being worth 510 points. They could match up with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. This deal would be equal, based on the chart:

Orioles
3rd (510pts)
for
Angels
18th (172pts)
29th (129)
30th (126)
144th (50)
264th (33)

What this goes to show is just how valuable those first few picks in the draft actually are. They are so much more valuable that a straight up trade for specific draft picks probably would not be very common at the top of the draft, but certainly would be later on. If trades at the top of the draft would occur, then it would probably include established prospects in the minor leagues.

Next time, converting this all over to money so we can include prospects in the deals.

How did 2008 DNSers Fare in the 2009 Draft?

In the first ten rounds of the 2008 draft, these players were drafted, did not sign, and reentered into the 2009 draft:

Aaron Crow 1:9
Tanner Scheppers 2:48
Scott Bittle 2:75
Chris Dominguez 5:167
Billy Morrison 9:282
Kyle Thebeau 9:285
Chris Herrmann 10:296
Trevor Holder 10:298
Kevin Castner 10:303
William Wilson 10:311
Nathan Newman 10:312

Of these eleven draftees, four went on to receive greater signing bonuses, one wound up with the about the same, three wound up with significantly less, and two were not drafted at all. As a population, supposed income (assumed as slot if actual team offered value is not found) was 5.74MM in 2008 while resultant sum of the signing bonuses in 2009 was 5.52MM. Although, these differences do not appear greatly different, less than half were helped by not signing.

After the jump, a more detailed list of who gained and who lost.

Draftees who benefited from not signing:
Chris Dominguez 165k -> 411k
Chris Herrmann 75k -> 135k
Trevor Holder 75k -> 200k
William Wilson 70k -> 408k

Draftee who lost from not signing:
Aaron Crow 3.5MM -> 3MM
Scott Bittle 550k -> 75k
Kevin Caster 65k -> ~10k
Nathan Newman 65k -> ~10k

Players not drafted the following year:
Billy Morrison
Kyle Thebeau

Just from this list, it appears that players who benefit most from not signing are players from rounds 8-10 or so. Players in a situation like Aaron Crow's have very little incentive in delaying the signing.

Draft Recap: Kyle Hudson, CF, University of Illinois

Introducing Kyle Hudson

5’11” – 165 lbs. – Bats/Throws (L/L)

In Round 4, Baltimore went with their second two-way D-I player (granted, Avery had not yet started his career at Georgia). Hudson spent three seasons as a wide receiver for the University of Illinois, as well as center-fielder for the baseball team. He leaves Illinois second in career batting (.376) and tied for first in stolen bases in a single-season (40). With this pick, Baltimore hopes to shape this elite athlete into a future lead-off hitter and plus-defender. Let's see what they have to work with...


The Statistics
AVG – .398
SLG – .482
AB – 191
H – 76
2B – 11
3B – 1
HR – 1
RBI – 26
R – 61
SB – 40

Two numbers jump out. First, the 40 stolen bases. As mentioned above, this ties the Illinois single-season record (he broke the conference record for stolen bases in conference play -- 25 SB -- as well). Hudson is a true burner with game-changing speed on Avery's level (I believe he's actually a slight step above). Second, the slugging percentage is a mere 84-points higher than his average. While the .398 AVG looks impressive, one has to take into account the fact that he was facing uninspired Big 10 pitching. To that point, the SLG is a bit troubling, as you'd expect the doubles and triples to pile up given his speed and the competition of a weaker conference. I think you'll see some power develop as he cleans-up his swing mechanics (see below), but it will likely be in the form of gap-to-gap rather than home run. He also lead the Big Ten in walks, with 39 -- another "plus" for an Orioles organization looking for its future lead-off hitter.

Grading Out
Hitting - 35
Power - 30
Fielding - 50
Arm - 30
Speed - 80

If Jordan and the Orioles were looking to get athletic this year, picks 2:5 through 4:5 is an incredible start. While Hudson is still a ways away from being a good hitter from the standpoint of mechanics and approach, keep in mind he has never devoted all of his attention to baseball. He posted a solid AVG and OBP in spite of his mechanics, and could be an exponential improver once he submerses himself in the baseball world. The development of his offensive game should dictate his ultimate ceiling -- either slap-hitting speedster with moderate success or solid candidate for a lead-off hitter. His speed easily plays in CF, though his arm strength summons visions of Juan Pierre.

Swing Mechanics
Scouting video available on the Orioles's Draft Tracker page at MLB.com

Load - Hudson begins with an open stance and closes with a leg raise (similar to Hoes's) as he loads. His hands start off in fine position, but he adds some extra movement and pulls them back towards the catcher as he lifts his leg, adding some length to his swing. As noted in our Hoes breakdown, the leg lift can be a good timing mechanism, but it requires attention to be paid to weight transfer.

Stride - His stride comes right from the leg lift, which is cleaner than Hoes's approach of tap and step/pivot. His timing is adequate and his hips do a decent job of staying closed (though he'll occasionally get a little lazy, especially on pitches he has given up on). His hands are too far back due to the extra motion at the end of his load, which greatly extends the length of the path from bat head to ball.

Swing - Hudson profiles as a bit of a slap hitter. He tends to come in too strongly with his top hand, which elevates his front shoulder and dirties his swing plane (at minimum flattening it), along with sapping some power. When he leads with his bottom hand, his swing is much more fluid and he is better positioned to make more consistent hard contact. There should be more emphasis on torque in his lower half, as his upper body has a tendency to throw him off balance. This results in less bat control and will affect his ability to stay on advanced pitching in the future.

Contact - He is inconsistent in his contact, sometimes coming in with too much weight up front and hitting off his lead foot. Other times, his upper body comes through too quickly (maybe over-swinging?) and his weight gets way back in his body. Rather than a perpendicular line from helmet to knee, Hudson is closer to 60-degrees. When coupled with a leading top hand, this could again be an obstacle to consistent hard contact against advanced pitching. Still other times, Hudson reverts more of a "slap" approach, throwing the bat head at the ball rather than attacking with a forceful plane. The Orioles will work to normalize his approach and get him into a more consistent routine from load to contact. This may be as simple as getting Hudson to do the reps in BP -- something that was likely cut into by the demands of his football commitment. Though he's a bit all over the place right now, there are enough "adequate" swings to give hope that a consistent professional hitter is buried in there.

Follow-Through - Again, Hudson is inconsistent. He finishes way up when he leads with his top hand. His flat swing lifts almost right at contact, taking force off of the swing and preventing him from maximizing his potential to drive the ball. The follow-through on his "slap" swings is short and tight in the upper body. Occasionally, he finishes with a nice clean stroke -- both one-handed and two-handed. As the rest of his mechanics are ironed out, his follow-through should fall into place.

Swing Grade - C-

Fielding
As you might expect from a wide receiver, Hudson tracks the ball very well. He takes solid routes and his plus-plus speed is an incredible asset in the field. He is capable of covering ground from gap-to-gap, and his ability to close quickly on base hits helps to prevent base runners from taking advantage of his below-average arm strength. Though his arm leaves something to be desired, his speed and reads would likely be wasted in LF. He should be a solid option in CF with the potential to save a fair number of extra-base hits in the gap.

Fielding Grade - B

Stotle's Notes
Hudson does not have the raw talent of Xavier Avery, and he is closer to fully-baked, limiting his ceiling a bit. Still, it will be interesting to see what happens now that he is devoting himself exclusively to baseball. His first 18 months in the organization will be telling. If everything starts to fall into place, Baltimore could have the makings of a future lead-off hitter with solid defense in the 8-spot. Even if his batting does not fully develop, he has the potential to carve out a 4th or 5th outfield spot on the merits of his defense and base running, alone. This is a decent high-upside pick, again heavily dependant on the ability of the Orioles low-minors system to lay the groundwork and begin the development of a player currently more athlete than baseball player.

Prospect Grade - C+
ETA - 2012

Next Up:
FRI 6/27 - Rick Zagone

Draft Recap: L.J. Hoes, 2B, St. Johns HS (Washington D.C.)

Introducing L.J. Hoes

6’0” – 190 lbs. – Bats/Throws (R/R)

With Baltimore’s pick at 3:5, we get some insight into this year’s draft approach. By selecting their second “toolsy” high schooler in three picks, the Orioles signal they are confident in their ability to develop their own talent and would like to grab the best tool sets with which to work. Hoes is an athletic ballplayer with the skill set to play almost any position in the field. Baltimore announced him as a second baseman, and it looks like that’s where the O’s will try to shape him (though he’ll likely bounce around the infield a bit in the rookie leagues to ensure he gets his at bats while others are working out at the four-spot). While the Matusz pick was probably the most heavily debated by Baltimore fans, the Hoes pick is the most significant – Jordan and the Orioles are stating in no uncertain terms that the organization will be looking to develop this year’s infusion of talent at the low-minor levels, and they are confident that the likes of Hoes and Avery will ultimately outshine the likes of more developed college players such as Kieschnick, Darnell and Danks. Let's take a look at what Jordan and Co. will be working with over the next 4+ seasons.

The Statistics
AVG – .524
SLG – .964
AB – 84
H – 44
2B – 9
3B – 2
HR – 8
RBI – 29
R – 44
SB – 32

As was the case with Avery, it looks like Baltimore was targeting athleticism with this pick -- primarily speed, with some semblance of raw power. Hoes enjoyed a successful career at St. John's and was an impact player right from the jump-off, batting third as a freshman for a team ranked in the top 25 nationally by four separate publications. Had he not signed with Baltimore, he would have continued his baseball career with national powerhouse University of North Carolina. St. John's is a member of the Washington Catholic League, which is competitive enough to add some legitimacy to his stats (though one has to keep in mind that even the most competitive of high school leagues is plagued with inconsistency in competition).

Grading Out
Hitting - 60
Power - 55
Fielding - 55
Arm - 60
Speed - 55

Hoes is a solid all-around ballplayer that doesn't dominate any one facet of the game. He's solidly above-average across the board and has earned a reputation as a clutch player capable of helping a team in all areas -- defense, throwing out runners, stealing bases and timely hitting with occasional pop. He doesn't have a huge frame, but he is already well on his way to filling it out. His power could grade as high as a 60 on the 80 point scale, but there probably isn't a ton of room for growth. His speed plays well in the outfield, but he probably isn't fast enough to profile as a Major League center-fielder. Likewise, his speed is fringe-plus on the offensive side -- he is quicker on the base paths once underway than he is out of the box. His arm should play across the diamond.

Swing Mechanics
Scouting video available on the Orioles's Draft Tracker page at MLB.com

Video Posted from LJ's Gallery on Takkle.com

Load - Hoes has an effective load. His hands are optimally placed slightly above and behind his back shoulder. His elbow is angled slightly below 90 degrees, with his bat head pointed towards third base and moving towards perpendicular as he completes the first stage of his swing. His weight distribution is close to 60/40 and he lifts his front leg through the load. There are schools of thought that regard this as a good timing mechanism, though it carries with it the requirement that the hitter keep his weight-shift in mind during his stride so as to avoid getting his lower half out in front of the ball as he brings his leg down.

Stride - Starting with a closed stance, Hoes's stride takes him slightly open, towards third base. This leads to his hips occasionally opening early, and accordingly, pull-side tendencies. This also opens up a hole on the outside of the plate that might be exploited at the professional level. Because he utilizes a raised front leg during his load, his weight transfer is occasionally uneven. He tends to shift his weight forward a little prematurely, which may lead to difficulties with offspeed stuff down the road. His hands and upper body are excellent. His hands stay tied to their position relative to his shoulders, keeping a short path to the ball. He has a still head and keeps his front shoulder closed and driving towards the pitch.

Swing - Hoes's calling card is his quick bat speed. Strong wrists, forearms and upper body, together with good upper body mechanics lead to a firm, compact swing that produces solid contact on a regular basis. While Hoes stride limits his ability to spray line drives from pole-to-pole as effectively as one would like, he has shown an adequate power to the opposite field -- this is likely due to his ability to let the ball deep into stance before beginning his swing (a huge benefit of above-average bat speed). It will also benefit his pitch identification as he works through the minors.

Contact - Mechanics at contact are sound. Hoes squares up on the ball regularly, and his body is in good power position at contact. His weight is centered and a straight line runs close to perpendicular to the ground from head to back knee (though he is generally a little too far out in front with his upper body). On those occasions where his weight transfers forward too quickly and he hits off of his front foot, he does a respectable job of rotating through his core and not lunging.

Follow-Through - Hoes has a clean, one-handed follow-through. As he works on hitting to the opposite field with authority, he may consider a two-handed follow-through to try and maintain a little more bat control towards the end of his swing, but this will largely depend on the hitting philosophy of his minor league instructors.

Swing Grade - B

Fielding
Hoes is impressive in the field. He has enough arm to play anywhere on the diamond and is direct to the ball in the outfield. He tracks the ball well and shows good instincts while in pursuit. Baltimore will look to mold him as an infielder, which is certainly possible giving his above-average athleticism and body control. Though he was an above average outfielder in high school, he isn't likely to have the speed to man center field at the Major League level or the bat to hold down a corner outfield spot. His above average arm and fringe-plus speed play well, defensively.

Fielding Grade - B

Stotle's Notes
The gamble here is that Hoes will hit enough to be an everyday infielder. The Orioles seem to be confident that he will be able to pick-up second base, and it would appear the target production will be somewhere around a Brian Roberts-lite. There is plus-power potential in his swing, but it is unlikely he'll add enough bulk for it to translate to much above low-double-digit home run output. With Hoes, Jordan grabs his second solid tool set and hopes to mold him into a late first round talent over the course of the next three seasons. He has the advantage of being quite versatile in the field already and fairly sound mechanically with his swing. His development will likely center around fine-tuning his game and working to get the most out of his body.

Prospect Grade - B-
ETA - 2013


Next Up:
WED 6/25 - Kyle Hudson (Pick 4:5)
THU 6/26 - Rick Zagone (Pick 6:5)
FRI 6/27 - Caleb Joseph (Pick 7:5)

Draft Recap: Xavier Avery, CF, Cedar Grove HS (Georgia)

Introducing Xavier Avery

5’11” – 180 lbs. – Bats/Throws (L/L)

Avery was one of the top overall athletes in the 2008 Draft and was recruited heavily on both the baseball diamond and football field (ranking as the 31st best football prospect in the state of Georgia and signing this Spring with the University of Georgia). As a baseball player, Avery has only begun to tap into that athleticism. Though a bit raw in the field, and more so in the batter’s box, Avery presents an enticing package of speed, raw power and athletic instincts.

The Statistics
AVG – .561
SLG – 1.136
AB – 66
H – 37
2B – 6
3B – 4
HR – 8
RBI – 24
R – 42
SB – 35

Avery's gaudy numbers are a bit deceiving (like many high school stats) because of the inconsistent talent he faced. To his credit, he had solid showings last summer and was a pre-season Aflac All-American. While scouts may not be in agreement as to what the finished product will be, all are confident that Avery possess an impressive trove of raw materials with which to build.

Grading Out
Hitting - 30
Power - 60
Fielding - 50
Arm - 40
Speed - 70

Avery's best tool is his plus-plus speed (6.4 60-yard and clocked as low as 3.95 from home to first), but his raw power is not far behind. Right now, the focus of the organization will be to increase his contact rate and try to work to have him square up on pitches with more regularity. Keeping in mind that he has 4+ years of development ahead of him before he starts to shape into the ML player he could eventually become, the closest comp would be Carl Crawford. Game-changing speed, plus defense and an adequate arm best suited for LF. If he is able to progress as a hitter, he could profile as an above-average #2, in the .280/20 HR to .290/25 HR ballpark. His speed should put a ton of pressure on the defense and help him reach base on infield hits as he progresses through the minors.

Swing Mechanics
Scouting video available on the Orioles's Draft Tracker page at MLB.com

Load - Avery starts with an open stance than closes a bit as he loads his hands -- the lower half of his body actually resembling a stride. His hands are too low and bit too far forward. His elbow is angled nicely around 45 degrees and his bat is nearly perpendicular to the ground, each helping along his impressive bat speed. His weight distribution is acceptable, though he can be a bit uneven at times as he transfers to the next part of his swing.

Stride - He varies in a stride from nothing (just a pivot as he swings) to almost a stutter-step directly after his load. More consistency in his load through his stride would help his timing and his ability to make solid contact more frequently. His hips open a bit early, which means he's leaving some power on the table. His hands actually drop back a bit, which normally would add length to a swing. However, since he starts with his hands a little too far forward, this doesn't adversely affect his line to the ball.

Swing - Avery has tremendous bat speed and quick hands and wrists. This allows him to generate above-average raw power, despite losing energy with his hand position in load and his open hips. He has a slight uppercut to his swing (though this doesn't appear in every swing) which allows him to generate good backspin and potential carry off of solid contact.

Contact - This is the best aspect of Avery's swing. Though he is inconsistent in his load and stride his quick bat and solid form at contact allow him to drive the ball when he does square-up. He is in good power position with his arms extended, head down hips turned through the pitch and a balanced and centered body (a line perpendicular to the ground can be drawn from his head, through his core, through the thigh and knee of his back leg). He rotates well through his core. Given the loss of power in his hips opening a bit too early, a few tweaks and repetitions through minor league ball could yield plus-power as a professional.

Follow-Through - Avery tends to finish up. Generally, he is pretty clean, though he wanders in and out of finishing with a tight upper body, shortening the end of his swing. He also has a tendency to fall-off of his swing when he tenses up in his upper-half.

Swing Grade - C

Fielding
Avery is deliberate and confident in the field. He gets solid carry on his throws, and has enough of an arm to project as a center fielder, though left field is probably a better fit. He utilizes his strength and athleticism by positioning himself well on balls-in-play and getting his entire body into his throws. As you might expect from a running back, his footwork is an asset, and he has plus-plus speed along good routes to the ball. He'll improve his routes and fine-tune his baseball instincts in the outfield, though he is an above-average fielder already.

Fielding Grade - B+

Stotle's Notes
Avery is an exciting player because he gives an organization so much to work with. On top of an above-average tool set, Avery has a passion for the game and a strong baseball IQ. Perhaps just as important, he was a fine student at Cedar Grove, posting a 3.8 GPA and 1420 SAT score. Any time you have a raw player with great tools, it's encouraging to see a strong work ethic and mental approach. Avery will be faced with may challenges as he matures as a ballplayer, and as a person. The Orioles invested a lot in a pick at 2:5, and could be handsomely rewarded if the organization is able to harness his ability.

Prospect Grade - B
ETA - 2013

Next Up:
TUE 6/24 - Jerome "L.J." Hoes
WED 6/25 - Kyle Hudson
THU 6/26 - Greg Miclat
FRI 6/27 - Rick Zagone

Draft Recap: A Primer from Paul DePodesta

Before we get into our breakdown of the Baltimore Orioles's 2008 Amateur Draft, I wanted to pass along an interesting draft-related article posted by Paul DePodesta (former GM of the LA Dodgers and current front office assistant for the Padres) on his blog.

DePodesta does a fantastic job of explaining the "draft process" and how you might go about examining whether a team is effective in its approach to the draft. He followed this up with a more in depth look at the Padres approach to the draft this year. While insightful, it may frustrate some Orioles fans who agree with his general premise that college hitters were the good "get" in this draft class (you'll note our Shadow Draft nabbed two in the first five rounds -- Kieschnick and Crawford -- and our "Rounds 2-5 targets" included 6 more -- Sobolewski, Adams, Mercer, Darnell, Flaherty and Danks).

Altogether, this is a good primer to Draft Grading and should help us all keep in mind a team's general process as well as its specific approach to a particular draft. We'll keep these two issues in mind as we step through the Orioles's draft over the next couple of weeks.

Draft Recap Schedule:
MON (6/23) - Xavier Avery
TUE (6/24) - L.J. Hoes
WED (6/25) - Kyle Hudson
THU (6/26) - Greg Miclat
FRI (6/27) - Rick Zagone

2008 Shadow Draft

How The Draft Was Run

The intent was to do this during the draft in conjunction with each of Baltimore's first five selections. Though our draft day coverage was cut short due to the demands of the real world, the Shadow Draft has been run. Each pick was made without taking into account the actual happenings in later rounds -- in other words we did not note where various players went and then draft accordingly (we'll point out players we missed out on and overdrafts we may have made). We will follow the careers of these players, occasionally comparing their progress with the progress of the actual players drafted by Baltimore. And now, on to our draft!

1:4 -- Brian Matusz (SP) University of San Diego
6'4" : 200 lbs : B/T (L/L)
1.71/1.00, 105 IP, 22 BB, 141 SO, 83 H, .211 BAA
Scouted: Film

Brian Matusz makes history as the first member of the Camden Depot Shadow Farm System, and what a building block he'll be. Since we've already provided a fairly in-depth scouting report (linked above) and will be examining Matusz in our Orioles recap, we will not spend much time on him here. He has the potential for four above-average Major League pitches and some tweaks to his motion could increase his velocity (it currently sits anywhere from 88 to 92). He'll move quickly through the system and while many place him as a future #2 we are confident that with some work he could be a staff anchor.

Actual Draft Slot: 1:4 (Baltimore Orioles)

MLB Scouting Video: Available at the Orioles Draft Recap

Notes: Many of our readers insist that Justin Smoak was the pick we should have made. While Smoak should be an excellent producer, we felt a polished lefty with room for growth and an advanced repertoire on the mound was more valuable to our system. A case can be made for each but we are satisfied Matusz was the correct pick, here.



2:4 -- Tim Melville (SP) Holt High School (Missouri)
6'5" : 210 lbs : B/T (R/R)
3.00/1.00, 47 IP, 15 BB, 72 SO, 32 H
Scouted: Film

It's difficult to know whether Melville tumbled due to an uneven showing this past high school season or because of signability concerns. Either way, we couldn't let the opportunity to land a second preseason top 10 selection pass us by. Melville is a big body who already possesses above-average arm strength. His arsenal consists of a low 90s fastball, an inconsistent knucklecurve with good depth and plus-potential and a changeup that is currently a "show me" pitch. Mechanically, he is sound, though there is certainly room for improvement. He doesn't do a good job of centering over the rubber, instead tending to start towards home before the apex of his leg kick. There is plenty of room in his frame for him to thicken and, accordingly, add even more velocity. He's far from a finished product, but the upside is undeniable and his tool set and raw stuff is first rate. Melville will be a tough sign, but we have plenty saved after cutting payroll -- we saw this as our chance to make this draft a success with two picks alone.

Actual Draft Slot: 4:3 (Kansas City Royals)

MLB Scouting Video: Available at the Royals Draft Recap

Notes: Though Melville would have been available at 3:4, it turns out not to matter as we likely would have selected Kieschnick here anyway.


3:4 -- Roger Kieschnick (OF) Texas Tech
6'3" : 215 lbs : B/T (L/R)
.305/.407/.632, 220 AB, 15 2B, 3 3B, 17 HR, 35 BB, 42 SO
Scouted: July 20, 2007 -- USA vs. Cuba (Film)

Roger Kieschnick is a great get for our system in the third round. We were close to selecting him at 2:4 and were thrilled to find him still on the board one round later. Again, our focus was trying to identify potential first round talents and Kieschnick more than makes the grade. His largest shortcoming this season was being a little too aggressive at the plate, striking out 42 times while walking only 35. He was successful at the plate last season (posting a batting average 50 points higher than this season), but his '08 struggles have (unfoundedly, we think) forced scouts to question his offensive approach.

Further, we disagree with scouts who have said there isn't enough in his lower half to generate power at the next level. He opens his hips a little early and gets the bat head out in front, limiting some of his power to "pull-side". Still he was able to generate adequate power this season (over half of his hits went for extra bases) as well as with a wood bat last summer with Team USA (over a third of his hits went for extra bases). We're confident there is plus-power potential here. His bat is otherwise clean through its swing plane, though some looseness in his lead arm would allow him to better get inside the ball and drive it to the opposite field. Defensively, Kieschnick flashes a plus-arm and takes clean lines to the ball, making him an excellent fit in right field. He also flashes above-average speed. He is a potential five-tool outfielder with moderate questions surrounding his swing -- an easy pick for us at 3:4.

Actual Draft Slot: 3:5 (San Francisco Giants)

MLB Scouting Video: Available at the Giants Draft Recap

Notes: After passing on Kieschnick in Round 2, we would have considered James Darnell (3B) University of South Carolina here had he still been around. Dave Adams (2B) University of Virginia was the target for Round 4.


4:4 -- Brandon Crawford (SS) University of California - Los Angeles
6'2" : 200 lbs : B/T (L/R)
.302/.394/.491, 13 2B, 5 3B, 7 HR, 31 BB, 59 SO
Scouted: March 1, 2008 vs. Bethune-Cookman (Film)

Sticking with the theme of first round upside, Brandon Crawford is an easy selection at 4:4. Our hope was that David Adams (2B) University of Virginia would fall past the third, but Crawford is a fine consolation prize. The two middle-infielders were attractive for similar reasons -- both displayed future first round talent in their freshman and sophomore years before suffering through down junior campaigns. Crawford struggled last summer in the Cape Cod League, and his uncertainty at the plate carried over through the start of the season. Dating back to the Cape, he has been pressing rather than letting his game flow naturally. As his struggled continued, he pressed harder -- regularly lunging at pitches and frequently showing signs of frustration. He has demonstrated a potential for plus-power, but he'll have to improve his contact rate to realize it.

Though uncomfortable at the plate this year, Crawford was again clean and true in the field. He ranges well to both sides and charges the ball well. His footwork is advanced and his plus-arm will easily play at the next level. Even if his bat doesn't mature, his floor is a great utility option with the ability to play any infield position at the next level -- fine value in the fourth round. If he's able to find his swing, he could be a solid everyday player. Now that he is starting his pro career, he should be able to put his struggles behind him and just focus on playing. With lowered expectations, some of the spotlight should be off him, allowing him to develop at his own pace.

Actual Draft Slot: 4:5 (San Francisco Giants)

MLB Scouting Video: Available at the Giants Draft Recap

Notes: Crawford is a high risk pick, but in our estimate a reasonable risk for the fourth round. We would have preferred the offensive upside of David Adams but are confident Crawford will be a nice start to building solid speed and defensive depth up the middle.



5:4 -- Brian Humphries (OF) Granite Hills High School (Calif.)
6'3" : 190 lbs : B/T (L/R)
.390 AVG / .602 SLG, 98 AB, 8 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR
Scouted: Film

We fell in love with Brian Humphries's tool set and frame (which we project could eventually produce plus-power at the Major League level). He has an average arm in CF, fringe-above-average speed and fringe-above-average defense. As he fills out his frame and becomes more comfortable with his size, he should show steady improvement in his consistency in the field (which has been a red flag for some scouts).

His offensive game is unrefined, but his size and above-average hand-eye coordination has produced flashes of brilliance at various showcases. He tends to hit off of his front foot a bit too much, and his swing tends to get a little tight and herky-jerky from stride to contact. Humphries is committed to Pepperdine, so this is another signability pick that we believe is worth the investment. Baseball America agrees that three years from now Humphries could be among the top talents in the 2011 draft -- we'd like that development to happen in our farm system rather than at Pepperdine.

Actual Draft Slot: 19:30 (Boston Red Sox)

MLB Scouting Video: Available at the Red Sox Draft Recap

Notes: Humphries's drop to the 19th round was likely tied to signability issues. As noted above, our approach was to identify the best talent available and pursue it aggressively.

Grading Ourselves

While this may not be the way that Major League teams approach the draft, we considered Baltimore's reduced payroll to be an excuse to up our draft budget by a couple of million dollars. Matusz has been rumored to be be highly signable (for close to slot) as he's apparently eager to get his pro season started. There should be enough in our budget to aggressively pursue Melville. I'd go so far as to offer top 10 money, which I firmly believe to be enough to keep him out of Chapel Hill. Prior to the start of the season, there was no indication that his commitment was rock solid.

Kieschnick and Crawford represent high upside picks that we feel are not as risky as the stats may make them out to be. Both have shown a track record of success prior to their respective hiccups in 2008. Both have tool sets that should allow them to provide value both in the field and at the plate, regardless of if they fully realize their ceiling with regards to both aspects of their games.

Humphries represents our attempt to land a first round talent three years before he's developed into that talent. Again, there was no indication entering the season that Humphries was unsignable, though it will certainly take an aggressive offer. He has the frame and base skill set to ultimately develop into an above-average Major Leaguer (though his tools are all only fringe-above-average right now).

Let us know what you think -- we'll update you as soon as our players sign!

First Day Recap

The first six rounds were completed yesterday. The actual selections are as follows:

1. Brian Matusz, LHSP, San Diego
2. Xavier Avery, CF, Cedar Grove HS, GA
He is perhaps the best athlete in the draft. He has signed a letter of intent to play football, but is considered a relatively easy sign. He will most likely play football in the fall and baseball at all other times. He possesses a lot of speed, but it is questionable if power will develop. With safer players available, Avery provides a great amount of upside and probably a bit more risk than what I would be comfortable with.
3. Jerome Hoes, 2B, St John HS, MD
He is a local boy who was asking for 1-3 rd money or he would go to school, so he should most likely be a good signing. Hoes is another guy who has a lot of upside, but there is also risk.
4. Kyle Hudson, CF, Illinois-Champaign
He has some speed and has good plate patience, but he has no arm. He seems like someone you would want to give a look at 2B, but he may be slotted for LF. To me, he seems to be a 4th outfielder type of guy if he develops. Tim Melville went to the Royals just before this pick.
5. Greg Miclat, SS, Virginia
He seems to have a somewhat advanced perspective at the plate, which makes his growth somewhat limited. He has no power. My best guess at upside is slightly above Brandon Fahey.
6. Richard Zagone, LHSP, Missouri-Columbia
I once accidentally saw him pitch. I never go to college games, but I was doing some work in Columbia and saw this lefty with a weird leg kick. Awfully high leg kick and he seems to open his shoulders up a bit much, running off to the side. I think it lowers his speed and results in wildness. Anyway, he camps out with his fastball in the high 80s and works in some offspeed pitches.

When Stotle comes back on-line . . . I am sure he will correct me.

2008 Shadow Draft

***At 2:4(#50) the Baltimore Orioles Select ____________ ***

5:45pm Unfortunately, we will not be able to go live with our second Shadow Pick, but this is currently the five we are looking at for 2:4(#50):

1. Jordy Mercer (SS) Oklahoma State University
2. Tim Melville (SP) Holt High School (Missouri)
3. Dennis Raben (OF) University of Miami (FL)
4. Roger Kieschnick (OF) Texas Tech
5. James Darnell (3B) University of South Carolina

We're leaning towards Melville (pictured above), a pre-season top 10 pick, though the preference was to take a bat with this pick. Mercer makes the most sense in that regard, but Raben, Kieschnick and Darell all profile as above-average hitters with power.



5:28pm I will be called away shortly, but will try to stick around long enough to put in our second Shadow Pick. Upadates will continue later this evening, including a Day 1 Draft Wrap. Thanks for following along!


5:14pm The first round concluded with the following picks:

1:26 ARI -- Daniel Sclereth (RP) University of Arizona
1:27 MIN -- Carlos Gutierrez (CP) University of Miami (FL)
1:28 NYA -- Gerrit Cole (SP) Orange Lutheran High School (Calif.)
1:29 CLE -- Lonne Chisenhall (SS) Pitt Community Coll.
1:30 BOS -- Casey Kelly (SS) Sarasota High School (Florida)

The last five picks feature three pitchers that all project to be power relievers (Cole still has starter potential) and two interesting picks at shortstop. Chisenhall began at South Carolina, hitting third between the likes of Smoak, Havens and James Darnell. At the beginning of conference play in his first season, he was arrested for grand larceny and burglary and was subsequently dismissed from the team. After pleading guilty and receiving six-months probation, he surfaced at Pitt and re-dedicated himself. He is a bat-first infielder that probably projects best as a 2B.

Boston stayed true to form selecting a high-ceiling player that will be difficult to sign (Kelly has a scholarship to both play baseball and quarterback the Tennessee Volunteer football team). In Gerrit Cole (pictured above), the Yankees have a power HS arm with what some have described as questionable make-up. He could move quickly as a reliever, though the Yankees will likely start him off in a rotation if for no other reason than to get him his innings. Sclereth may be the current over-pick in the draft, as most had him going in the mid- to late-second round.


4:25pm At 1:21 the Tigers grab a solid right-handed starter in Arizona Wildcat Ryan Perry. Perry sports a plus-plus fastball though it lacks deception, causing it to play down. He has a serviceable changeup, but his power fastball/slider combo have most projecting him as a closer. Reese Havens (SS) University of South Carolina goes to the Mets at 1:22. Havens profiles as a shortstop at the ML-level and should hit towards the front of a ML-lineup. Allan Dykstra (1B) Wake Forest University (pictured left) goes to San Diego at 1:23. Dykstra didn't give scouts a ton to go on because he was stuck in a weak-hitting Demon Deacon lineup, making him easy to pitch around. There is plus-power in his bat and his 6'5" 240 pound frame, and an advanced approach at the plate. On knock is that he tends to be overly-patient, and could benefit from being a little more aggressive early on fastball counts. Philly grabs Vandy commit Anthony Hewitt (OF/SS) Salisbury (Conn.) School. Signability concerns make this a high-risk/high-reward pick in the first round. More info on Hewitt is available in our Draft Preview Scouting Report: Rounds 2-3. Christian Friedrich (SP) Eastern Kentucky University is officially the first steal of the draft, going to Colorado at 1:25. A case could be made for him going in the top 10, as he combines a power curve, a low-80s slider, a low-90s heater and an advanced approach on the mound. Coming into today he was clearly the second best lefty available in the draft.


4:03pm Had to briefly step away. One surprise in the top 10 as Houston selects Jason Castro (C) Stanford University. Castro was a consensus 1st round pick, but few if any saw him as a top 10 talent. Further confusing the matter is the fact that Houston promoted their top prospect this year, J.R. Towles, a hitting-first catcher. Picks 1:8 and 1:9 were reasonable selections with Gordon Beckham going to the White Sox and Aaron Crow heading to the Nats.

1:11 TEX -- Justin Smoak (1B) University of South Carolina
1:12 OAK -- Jemile Weeks (2B) University of Miami (FL)
1:13 STL -- Brett Wallace (3B) Arizona State University
1:14 MIN -- Aaron Hicks (OF) Woodrow Wilson High School (Calif.)
1:15 LAN -- Ethan Martin (SP) Stephens COunty School (Georgia)
1:16 MIL -- Brett Lawrie (C) Brookswood SS (Brit. Col.)
1:17 TOR -- David Cooper (1B) University of California (Berkley)
1:18 NYN -- Ike Davis (1B) Arizona State University
1:19 CHN -- Andrew Cashner (CP/SP) Texas Christian University
1:20 SEA -- Josh Fields (CP) University of Georgia

It's a bit surprising to see Smoak falling out of the top 10 -- Texas faired pretty well with there last switch-hitting 1b selected in the first round. Jemile Weeks (pictured above) goes about five picks earlier than I expected. He does not have the power potential of his older brother, Milwaukee Brewer 2b Rickie Weeks, and is a bit of a reach this high with so many impact bats still available. Weeks should be a solid MLer, but I don't think he's the impact player you look for this high in the first round. Fields is a solid pick for SEA and has the stuff, command and poise to be pitching out of a ML bullpen right now.


2:54pm The top two catchers in the draft go 1:5 and 1:6 as the Giants select Posey and the Florida Marlins select Kyle Skipworth (C) Patriot High School(Calif.). The first surprise of the afternoon goes to Cincy, as the Reds opt for Yonder Alonso (1B) University of Miami (FL). Alonso is one of the best college bats in the draft, projecting to hit for power and average. Aside from Alvarez, there is probably not a more Major League-ready bat than Alonso. He should hit for a little more average than Smoak but is a far inferior defender. It will be curious to see what the Reds do, as they have young stud Joey Votto at the 3-spot right now. If Alonso signs early he could be ML-ready by some time next season.


2:34pm***At 1:4 the Baltimore Orioles Select (Actual: Brian Matusz (SP) University of San Diego; Shadow: Brian Matusz (SP) University of San Diego)***
Matusz is at the top of our draft board and we're excited to add the talented lefty as the first prospect in our shadow farm system. We've discussed him a fair amount already so I'll forgo the rest of the analysis until next week when we start our draft review.


2:28pm At 1:3 the Kansas City Royals select Eric Hosmer. Looks like the board is going as expected. Baltimore is up!


2:24pm At 1:2 the Pittsburgh Pirates select Pedro Alvarez. Apparently Beckham was not slipping past Pittsburgh, as word has come out the two were deep into their negotiations last night in-case Tampa opted for Posey at 1:1. As far as the Pirates are concerned, they are at Boras's mercy as they cannot afford to let Pedro's demands get in the way of signing him after last year's debacle (passing on Wieters for Moskos).


2:15pm At 1:1 the Tampa Bay Rays select Tim Beckham (SS) Griffin HS (Georgia). No surprises here.


1:40pm Word is still that Pittsburgh is locked in on Pedro Alvarez. Nothing more out of the Kansas City camp, but the odds still favor selection of Eric Hosmer (1B) American Heritage HS (Florida) (pictured left). We did not determine Hosmer to be a likely target for Baltimore, so he was not included in our preview. He may have the best power potential of any draftee, but it was believed that his stiff signing bonus demands (his advisor, Scott Boras, indicated Hosmer would be seeking $7mio) would drop him at least out of the top 5. Now, Kansas City looks like they will be pairing him with last year's 1:2 selection, Mike Moustakas (SS) Chatsworth High School (Calif.). Both would project to arrive with the big club around 2013.


1:25pm We expect Tampa to go with Griffin HS standout shortstop Tim Beckham. Our best guess is Brian Matusz will be the best available when we pick, but no one predicted Wieters falling to us last year. There are still some fingers crossed that someone throws a curve and we get one of Pedro Alvarez or Tim Beckham.