Putting Sickels' Rankings into a Top 100 . . . well, 119

With John Sickels completing his preliminary offseason prospect rankings(NL, AL), we are able to generate a tiered prospect ranking list. I compiled this one from his Grades A, A-, B+, and B; which brings us to a total of 119 prospects. Looking at our Shadow Draft system, we seemed to have done pretty well.

Brian Matusz A
Jake Arrieta B+
Zach Britton B+
Josh Bell B
Brandon Erbe B
Tim Melville B
Zach Wheeler B

We have been able to meet the Orioles actually list plus two with Melville and Wheeler. As the seasons pass, it will be interesting to see how well our system lines up to the actual Orioles system.

For all of the rankings . . .

Ranking

Tier 1 - Grade A (1 through 9)
Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves
Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington Nationals
Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants
Neftali Feliz, RHP, Texas Rangers
Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
Jesus Montero, C, New York Yankees
Brian Matusz, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland Indians

Tier 2 - Grade A- (10 through 18)
Justin Smoak, 1B Texas Rangers
Dustin Ackley, 2B, Seattle Mariners
Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Cincinatti Reds
Martin Perez, LHP, Texas Rangers
Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Wade Davis, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Madison Bumgarner, LHP, San Francisco Giants
Chris Carter, 1B-OF, Oakland Athletics
Mike Stanton, OF, Florida Marlins

Tier 3 - Grade B+ (19 through 61)
Tyler Matzek, RHP, Colorado Rockies
Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Texas Rangers
Fernando Martinez, OF, New York Mets
Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs
Michael Taylor, OF, Oakland A's
Jordan Lyles, RHP, Houston Astros
Todd Frazier, INF-OF, Cincinatti Reds
Yonder Alonso, 1B, Cincinatti Reds
Matt Moore, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Jason Castro, C, Houston Astros
Mike Trout, OF, LA Angels of Anaheim
Hank Conger, C, LA Angels of Anaheim
Trevor Reckling, LHP, LA Angels of Anaheim
Derek Norris, C, Washington Nationals
Drew Storen, RHP, Washington Nationals
Mike Montgomery, LHP, Kansas City Royals
Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves
Aaron Hicks, OF, Minnesota Twins
Jenrry Mejia, RHP, New York Mets
Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Boston Red Sox
Casey Kelly, RHP, Boston Red Sox
Dan Hudson, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Donavan Tate, OF, San Diego Padres
Simon Castro, RHP, San Diego Padres
Jake Arrieta, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Zach Britton, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
Dee Gordon, SS, LA Dodgers
Chris Withrow, RHP, LA Dodgers
Grant Green, SS, Oakland Athletics
Josh Vitters, 3B, Chicago Cubs
Wilmer Flores, SS, New York Mets
Logan Morrison, 1B, Florida Marlins
Brett Lawrie, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers
Alcides Escobar, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Cleveland Indians
Casey Crosby, LHP, Detroit Tigers
Jacob Turner, RHP, Detroit Tigers
Christian Friedrich, LHP, Colorado Rockies
Dominic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Philles
Jhoulys Chacin, RHP, Colorado Rockies
Brett Wallace, 1B-3B, Toronto Blue Jays
Zach Stewart, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Kyle Drabek, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays

Tier 4 - Grade B (62 though 119)
Josh Bell, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
Garrett Richards, RHP, Houston Astros
Jiovanni Mier, SS, Houston Astros
Brandon Erbe, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Chris Heisey, OF, Cincinnati Reds
Scott Sizemore, 2B, Detroit Tigers
Matt Dominguez, 3B, Florida Marlins
Ike Davis, 1B, New York Mets
Nick Hagadone, LHP, Cleveland Indians
Chad James, LHP, Florida Marlins
Alex White, RHP, Cleveland Indians
Hector Rondon, RHP, Cleveland Indians
Ryan Tucker, RHP, Florida Marlins
Jon Niese, LHP, New York Mets
Wilmer Font, RHP, Texas Rangers
Michael Main, RHP, Texas Rangers
Austin Romine, C, New York Yankees
Eric Arnett, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Jonathan Lucroy, C, Milwaukee Brewers
Brett Jackson, OF, Chicago Cubs
Jay Jackson, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Andrew Cashner, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Austin Jackson, OF, Detroit Tigers
Alex Avila, C, Detroit Tigers
Dan Schlereth, LHP, Detroit Tigers
Mike Leake, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Josh Lindblom, RHP, LA Dodgers
Travis d'Arnaud, C, Toronto Blue Jays
Jose Tabata, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Tony Sanchez, C, Pittsburgh Pirates
Ryan Kalish, OF, Boston Red Sox
Josh Reddick, OF, Boston Red Sox
Michael Bowden, RHP, Boston Red Sox
Shelby Miller, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Jared Mitchell, OF, Chicago White Sox
Tyler Flowers, C, Chicago White Sox
James Darnell, 3B, San Diego Padres
Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Chicago Cubs
Grant Desme, OF, Oakland Athletics
Ethan Martin, RHP, LA Dodgers
Aaron Miller, LHP, LA Dodgers
Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals
Aaron Crow, RHP, Kansas City Royals
Tim Melville, RHP, Kansas City Royals
Jaff "Commodore" Decker, OF, San Diego Padres
Wynn Pelzer, RHP, San Diego Padres
Everett Williams, OF, San Diego Padres
Danny Espinosa, SS, Washington Nationals
Julio Teheran, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Randall Delgado, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Alexander Colome, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Danny Duffy, LHP, Kansas City Royals
Wil Myers, C, Kansas City Royals
Ben Revere, OF, Minnesota Twins
Thomas Neal, OF, San Francisco Giants
Zack Wheeler, RHP, San Francisco Giants

2008 Shadow Draft

How The Draft Was Run

The intent was to do this during the draft in conjunction with each of Baltimore's first five selections. Though our draft day coverage was cut short due to the demands of the real world, the Shadow Draft has been run. Each pick was made without taking into account the actual happenings in later rounds -- in other words we did not note where various players went and then draft accordingly (we'll point out players we missed out on and overdrafts we may have made). We will follow the careers of these players, occasionally comparing their progress with the progress of the actual players drafted by Baltimore. And now, on to our draft!

1:4 -- Brian Matusz (SP) University of San Diego
6'4" : 200 lbs : B/T (L/L)
1.71/1.00, 105 IP, 22 BB, 141 SO, 83 H, .211 BAA
Scouted: Film

Brian Matusz makes history as the first member of the Camden Depot Shadow Farm System, and what a building block he'll be. Since we've already provided a fairly in-depth scouting report (linked above) and will be examining Matusz in our Orioles recap, we will not spend much time on him here. He has the potential for four above-average Major League pitches and some tweaks to his motion could increase his velocity (it currently sits anywhere from 88 to 92). He'll move quickly through the system and while many place him as a future #2 we are confident that with some work he could be a staff anchor.

Actual Draft Slot: 1:4 (Baltimore Orioles)

MLB Scouting Video: Available at the Orioles Draft Recap

Notes: Many of our readers insist that Justin Smoak was the pick we should have made. While Smoak should be an excellent producer, we felt a polished lefty with room for growth and an advanced repertoire on the mound was more valuable to our system. A case can be made for each but we are satisfied Matusz was the correct pick, here.



2:4 -- Tim Melville (SP) Holt High School (Missouri)
6'5" : 210 lbs : B/T (R/R)
3.00/1.00, 47 IP, 15 BB, 72 SO, 32 H
Scouted: Film

It's difficult to know whether Melville tumbled due to an uneven showing this past high school season or because of signability concerns. Either way, we couldn't let the opportunity to land a second preseason top 10 selection pass us by. Melville is a big body who already possesses above-average arm strength. His arsenal consists of a low 90s fastball, an inconsistent knucklecurve with good depth and plus-potential and a changeup that is currently a "show me" pitch. Mechanically, he is sound, though there is certainly room for improvement. He doesn't do a good job of centering over the rubber, instead tending to start towards home before the apex of his leg kick. There is plenty of room in his frame for him to thicken and, accordingly, add even more velocity. He's far from a finished product, but the upside is undeniable and his tool set and raw stuff is first rate. Melville will be a tough sign, but we have plenty saved after cutting payroll -- we saw this as our chance to make this draft a success with two picks alone.

Actual Draft Slot: 4:3 (Kansas City Royals)

MLB Scouting Video: Available at the Royals Draft Recap

Notes: Though Melville would have been available at 3:4, it turns out not to matter as we likely would have selected Kieschnick here anyway.


3:4 -- Roger Kieschnick (OF) Texas Tech
6'3" : 215 lbs : B/T (L/R)
.305/.407/.632, 220 AB, 15 2B, 3 3B, 17 HR, 35 BB, 42 SO
Scouted: July 20, 2007 -- USA vs. Cuba (Film)

Roger Kieschnick is a great get for our system in the third round. We were close to selecting him at 2:4 and were thrilled to find him still on the board one round later. Again, our focus was trying to identify potential first round talents and Kieschnick more than makes the grade. His largest shortcoming this season was being a little too aggressive at the plate, striking out 42 times while walking only 35. He was successful at the plate last season (posting a batting average 50 points higher than this season), but his '08 struggles have (unfoundedly, we think) forced scouts to question his offensive approach.

Further, we disagree with scouts who have said there isn't enough in his lower half to generate power at the next level. He opens his hips a little early and gets the bat head out in front, limiting some of his power to "pull-side". Still he was able to generate adequate power this season (over half of his hits went for extra bases) as well as with a wood bat last summer with Team USA (over a third of his hits went for extra bases). We're confident there is plus-power potential here. His bat is otherwise clean through its swing plane, though some looseness in his lead arm would allow him to better get inside the ball and drive it to the opposite field. Defensively, Kieschnick flashes a plus-arm and takes clean lines to the ball, making him an excellent fit in right field. He also flashes above-average speed. He is a potential five-tool outfielder with moderate questions surrounding his swing -- an easy pick for us at 3:4.

Actual Draft Slot: 3:5 (San Francisco Giants)

MLB Scouting Video: Available at the Giants Draft Recap

Notes: After passing on Kieschnick in Round 2, we would have considered James Darnell (3B) University of South Carolina here had he still been around. Dave Adams (2B) University of Virginia was the target for Round 4.


4:4 -- Brandon Crawford (SS) University of California - Los Angeles
6'2" : 200 lbs : B/T (L/R)
.302/.394/.491, 13 2B, 5 3B, 7 HR, 31 BB, 59 SO
Scouted: March 1, 2008 vs. Bethune-Cookman (Film)

Sticking with the theme of first round upside, Brandon Crawford is an easy selection at 4:4. Our hope was that David Adams (2B) University of Virginia would fall past the third, but Crawford is a fine consolation prize. The two middle-infielders were attractive for similar reasons -- both displayed future first round talent in their freshman and sophomore years before suffering through down junior campaigns. Crawford struggled last summer in the Cape Cod League, and his uncertainty at the plate carried over through the start of the season. Dating back to the Cape, he has been pressing rather than letting his game flow naturally. As his struggled continued, he pressed harder -- regularly lunging at pitches and frequently showing signs of frustration. He has demonstrated a potential for plus-power, but he'll have to improve his contact rate to realize it.

Though uncomfortable at the plate this year, Crawford was again clean and true in the field. He ranges well to both sides and charges the ball well. His footwork is advanced and his plus-arm will easily play at the next level. Even if his bat doesn't mature, his floor is a great utility option with the ability to play any infield position at the next level -- fine value in the fourth round. If he's able to find his swing, he could be a solid everyday player. Now that he is starting his pro career, he should be able to put his struggles behind him and just focus on playing. With lowered expectations, some of the spotlight should be off him, allowing him to develop at his own pace.

Actual Draft Slot: 4:5 (San Francisco Giants)

MLB Scouting Video: Available at the Giants Draft Recap

Notes: Crawford is a high risk pick, but in our estimate a reasonable risk for the fourth round. We would have preferred the offensive upside of David Adams but are confident Crawford will be a nice start to building solid speed and defensive depth up the middle.



5:4 -- Brian Humphries (OF) Granite Hills High School (Calif.)
6'3" : 190 lbs : B/T (L/R)
.390 AVG / .602 SLG, 98 AB, 8 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR
Scouted: Film

We fell in love with Brian Humphries's tool set and frame (which we project could eventually produce plus-power at the Major League level). He has an average arm in CF, fringe-above-average speed and fringe-above-average defense. As he fills out his frame and becomes more comfortable with his size, he should show steady improvement in his consistency in the field (which has been a red flag for some scouts).

His offensive game is unrefined, but his size and above-average hand-eye coordination has produced flashes of brilliance at various showcases. He tends to hit off of his front foot a bit too much, and his swing tends to get a little tight and herky-jerky from stride to contact. Humphries is committed to Pepperdine, so this is another signability pick that we believe is worth the investment. Baseball America agrees that three years from now Humphries could be among the top talents in the 2011 draft -- we'd like that development to happen in our farm system rather than at Pepperdine.

Actual Draft Slot: 19:30 (Boston Red Sox)

MLB Scouting Video: Available at the Red Sox Draft Recap

Notes: Humphries's drop to the 19th round was likely tied to signability issues. As noted above, our approach was to identify the best talent available and pursue it aggressively.

Grading Ourselves

While this may not be the way that Major League teams approach the draft, we considered Baltimore's reduced payroll to be an excuse to up our draft budget by a couple of million dollars. Matusz has been rumored to be be highly signable (for close to slot) as he's apparently eager to get his pro season started. There should be enough in our budget to aggressively pursue Melville. I'd go so far as to offer top 10 money, which I firmly believe to be enough to keep him out of Chapel Hill. Prior to the start of the season, there was no indication that his commitment was rock solid.

Kieschnick and Crawford represent high upside picks that we feel are not as risky as the stats may make them out to be. Both have shown a track record of success prior to their respective hiccups in 2008. Both have tool sets that should allow them to provide value both in the field and at the plate, regardless of if they fully realize their ceiling with regards to both aspects of their games.

Humphries represents our attempt to land a first round talent three years before he's developed into that talent. Again, there was no indication entering the season that Humphries was unsignable, though it will certainly take an aggressive offer. He has the frame and base skill set to ultimately develop into an above-average Major Leaguer (though his tools are all only fringe-above-average right now).

Let us know what you think -- we'll update you as soon as our players sign!

2008 Shadow Draft

***At 2:4(#50) the Baltimore Orioles Select ____________ ***

5:45pm Unfortunately, we will not be able to go live with our second Shadow Pick, but this is currently the five we are looking at for 2:4(#50):

1. Jordy Mercer (SS) Oklahoma State University
2. Tim Melville (SP) Holt High School (Missouri)
3. Dennis Raben (OF) University of Miami (FL)
4. Roger Kieschnick (OF) Texas Tech
5. James Darnell (3B) University of South Carolina

We're leaning towards Melville (pictured above), a pre-season top 10 pick, though the preference was to take a bat with this pick. Mercer makes the most sense in that regard, but Raben, Kieschnick and Darell all profile as above-average hitters with power.



5:28pm I will be called away shortly, but will try to stick around long enough to put in our second Shadow Pick. Upadates will continue later this evening, including a Day 1 Draft Wrap. Thanks for following along!


5:14pm The first round concluded with the following picks:

1:26 ARI -- Daniel Sclereth (RP) University of Arizona
1:27 MIN -- Carlos Gutierrez (CP) University of Miami (FL)
1:28 NYA -- Gerrit Cole (SP) Orange Lutheran High School (Calif.)
1:29 CLE -- Lonne Chisenhall (SS) Pitt Community Coll.
1:30 BOS -- Casey Kelly (SS) Sarasota High School (Florida)

The last five picks feature three pitchers that all project to be power relievers (Cole still has starter potential) and two interesting picks at shortstop. Chisenhall began at South Carolina, hitting third between the likes of Smoak, Havens and James Darnell. At the beginning of conference play in his first season, he was arrested for grand larceny and burglary and was subsequently dismissed from the team. After pleading guilty and receiving six-months probation, he surfaced at Pitt and re-dedicated himself. He is a bat-first infielder that probably projects best as a 2B.

Boston stayed true to form selecting a high-ceiling player that will be difficult to sign (Kelly has a scholarship to both play baseball and quarterback the Tennessee Volunteer football team). In Gerrit Cole (pictured above), the Yankees have a power HS arm with what some have described as questionable make-up. He could move quickly as a reliever, though the Yankees will likely start him off in a rotation if for no other reason than to get him his innings. Sclereth may be the current over-pick in the draft, as most had him going in the mid- to late-second round.


4:25pm At 1:21 the Tigers grab a solid right-handed starter in Arizona Wildcat Ryan Perry. Perry sports a plus-plus fastball though it lacks deception, causing it to play down. He has a serviceable changeup, but his power fastball/slider combo have most projecting him as a closer. Reese Havens (SS) University of South Carolina goes to the Mets at 1:22. Havens profiles as a shortstop at the ML-level and should hit towards the front of a ML-lineup. Allan Dykstra (1B) Wake Forest University (pictured left) goes to San Diego at 1:23. Dykstra didn't give scouts a ton to go on because he was stuck in a weak-hitting Demon Deacon lineup, making him easy to pitch around. There is plus-power in his bat and his 6'5" 240 pound frame, and an advanced approach at the plate. On knock is that he tends to be overly-patient, and could benefit from being a little more aggressive early on fastball counts. Philly grabs Vandy commit Anthony Hewitt (OF/SS) Salisbury (Conn.) School. Signability concerns make this a high-risk/high-reward pick in the first round. More info on Hewitt is available in our Draft Preview Scouting Report: Rounds 2-3. Christian Friedrich (SP) Eastern Kentucky University is officially the first steal of the draft, going to Colorado at 1:25. A case could be made for him going in the top 10, as he combines a power curve, a low-80s slider, a low-90s heater and an advanced approach on the mound. Coming into today he was clearly the second best lefty available in the draft.


4:03pm Had to briefly step away. One surprise in the top 10 as Houston selects Jason Castro (C) Stanford University. Castro was a consensus 1st round pick, but few if any saw him as a top 10 talent. Further confusing the matter is the fact that Houston promoted their top prospect this year, J.R. Towles, a hitting-first catcher. Picks 1:8 and 1:9 were reasonable selections with Gordon Beckham going to the White Sox and Aaron Crow heading to the Nats.

1:11 TEX -- Justin Smoak (1B) University of South Carolina
1:12 OAK -- Jemile Weeks (2B) University of Miami (FL)
1:13 STL -- Brett Wallace (3B) Arizona State University
1:14 MIN -- Aaron Hicks (OF) Woodrow Wilson High School (Calif.)
1:15 LAN -- Ethan Martin (SP) Stephens COunty School (Georgia)
1:16 MIL -- Brett Lawrie (C) Brookswood SS (Brit. Col.)
1:17 TOR -- David Cooper (1B) University of California (Berkley)
1:18 NYN -- Ike Davis (1B) Arizona State University
1:19 CHN -- Andrew Cashner (CP/SP) Texas Christian University
1:20 SEA -- Josh Fields (CP) University of Georgia

It's a bit surprising to see Smoak falling out of the top 10 -- Texas faired pretty well with there last switch-hitting 1b selected in the first round. Jemile Weeks (pictured above) goes about five picks earlier than I expected. He does not have the power potential of his older brother, Milwaukee Brewer 2b Rickie Weeks, and is a bit of a reach this high with so many impact bats still available. Weeks should be a solid MLer, but I don't think he's the impact player you look for this high in the first round. Fields is a solid pick for SEA and has the stuff, command and poise to be pitching out of a ML bullpen right now.


2:54pm The top two catchers in the draft go 1:5 and 1:6 as the Giants select Posey and the Florida Marlins select Kyle Skipworth (C) Patriot High School(Calif.). The first surprise of the afternoon goes to Cincy, as the Reds opt for Yonder Alonso (1B) University of Miami (FL). Alonso is one of the best college bats in the draft, projecting to hit for power and average. Aside from Alvarez, there is probably not a more Major League-ready bat than Alonso. He should hit for a little more average than Smoak but is a far inferior defender. It will be curious to see what the Reds do, as they have young stud Joey Votto at the 3-spot right now. If Alonso signs early he could be ML-ready by some time next season.


2:34pm***At 1:4 the Baltimore Orioles Select (Actual: Brian Matusz (SP) University of San Diego; Shadow: Brian Matusz (SP) University of San Diego)***
Matusz is at the top of our draft board and we're excited to add the talented lefty as the first prospect in our shadow farm system. We've discussed him a fair amount already so I'll forgo the rest of the analysis until next week when we start our draft review.


2:28pm At 1:3 the Kansas City Royals select Eric Hosmer. Looks like the board is going as expected. Baltimore is up!


2:24pm At 1:2 the Pittsburgh Pirates select Pedro Alvarez. Apparently Beckham was not slipping past Pittsburgh, as word has come out the two were deep into their negotiations last night in-case Tampa opted for Posey at 1:1. As far as the Pirates are concerned, they are at Boras's mercy as they cannot afford to let Pedro's demands get in the way of signing him after last year's debacle (passing on Wieters for Moskos).


2:15pm At 1:1 the Tampa Bay Rays select Tim Beckham (SS) Griffin HS (Georgia). No surprises here.


1:40pm Word is still that Pittsburgh is locked in on Pedro Alvarez. Nothing more out of the Kansas City camp, but the odds still favor selection of Eric Hosmer (1B) American Heritage HS (Florida) (pictured left). We did not determine Hosmer to be a likely target for Baltimore, so he was not included in our preview. He may have the best power potential of any draftee, but it was believed that his stiff signing bonus demands (his advisor, Scott Boras, indicated Hosmer would be seeking $7mio) would drop him at least out of the top 5. Now, Kansas City looks like they will be pairing him with last year's 1:2 selection, Mike Moustakas (SS) Chatsworth High School (Calif.). Both would project to arrive with the big club around 2013.


1:25pm We expect Tampa to go with Griffin HS standout shortstop Tim Beckham. Our best guess is Brian Matusz will be the best available when we pick, but no one predicted Wieters falling to us last year. There are still some fingers crossed that someone throws a curve and we get one of Pedro Alvarez or Tim Beckham.