The Royals arrived in the postseason for the first time
since 1985 by doing many things well.
However, being productive with the bats was not one of them. Look at almost any statistic from the 2014
season and they are the worst team to make the playoffs in terms of hitting. While they scored 4.02 runs per game (good
for 14th in baseball), they fared worse in wOBA (.306, 18th
in MLB) and wRC+ (94, also 18th in MLB), and much worse in hitting
for power (.113 ISO, last in MLB) and getting on base (6.3% BB rate, also last
in MLB). However, they put the ball in
play more than anyone else (i.e. they don’t strikeout), and when you combine
that with their speed, they can be a pretty dynamic offense when things break
right for them.
After 4 playoff games (small sample, I know), they’ve gone
from scoring roughly 4 runs per game to scoring an average of 6 runs per
game. So how did that happen? Well, the fact that they’ve basically been
able to steal bases whenever they want has helped, but more importantly, it has
been the hitting of Eric Hosmer. Maybe
you remember some of his highlights from last week, such as this…
…or this…
…or that he paid for everyone’s drinks after advancing to
the ALCS (which was brilliant, by the way).
Since the postseason began, Hosmer has been hitting a very
healthy .500/.632/1.143 (AVG/OBP/SLG). You didn’t misread that triple slash
line. Hosmer has a 1.774 OPS. It’s a stark difference from his 2014 line of
.270/.318/.398. Yes, it’s a small
sample, but not only has he hit for power these 4 games, he’s also walked 5
times in 19 PA’s, so it’s probably safe to say that he’s seeing the ball pretty
well. As you can see in the video’s
above, he’s specifically done damage to fastballs up and away, tough pitches to
hit, and a location he’s had trouble with historically.
During the 2014 season, Hosmer has been susceptible to fastballs
on the outside corner. Overall though,
he has generally been able to consistently make contact on fastballs elsewhere in
the strikezone. However, based on what
he’s done recently, that outside corner may not be a spot pitchers want to go
to right now. Since throwing fastballs
on the outside corner is probably not the preferred plan of action at the
moment, does Hosmer have a weakness that the Orioles pitchers can try to
exploit?
Of course he does. All
hitters have a weakness. Take a look at
Hosmer’s swing rate on “soft” pitches thrown to him in 2014.
Notice anything?
He’ll expand the strikezone quite a bit on the low end and the outside
corner. Further isolating the pitch type to just curveballs and sliders, it
becomes even more pronounced, almost to the point that the lower end of the
strikezone barely even exists for him.
The fact alone that he swings at soft pitches below the
strikezone and off the outside corner is helpful, but it doesn’t tell us
everything. Some players have crazy
plate coverage and can make contact with a pitch in almost any location. So with that in mind, let’s take a look at
Hosmer’s contact rate in 2014, on the same type of pitches.
As you can see, Hosmer actually makes decent contact on soft
stuff off the plate on the outside corner. However, his contact rate on soft
pitches falls off a cliff just under the lower edge of the strike zone.
Eric Hosmer has been the hottest hitter on a Kansas City
team that has all of a sudden started scoring runs during the playoffs. Despite struggling in the first half of the
year, a strong July and September (he missed August with a stress fracture in
his right hand), where he hit .323/.381/.512 indicates that these 4 playoffs
games may not be just a quick stroke of good luck (although he likely won’t
continue hitting this well). Getting Hosmer to chase off-speed pitches below
the strike zone appears to be a worthwhile game plan when pitching to him. Now, having a game plan is one thing, the
Orioles will still need to execute it.
One thing is certain though, limiting the damage that Hosmer can do with
his bat will go a long way in helping the Orioles advance to their first World
Series since 1983.
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