12 June 2010

Trade Market Options: NL Central Edition

This is a continuation of a series exploring options in the trade market for the Orioles. The Orioles most useful available talent (i.e. Millwood, Guthrie, Wigginton, Scott) could probably net a return of one B level prospect and some C level secondary prospect. This series will review the teams arguably in contention and how well they match up with what the Orioles have and what the Orioles would want.

NL East
NL Central
NL West
AL East
AL Central
AL West

NL Central after the jump...

Orioles' Most Trade Worthy Items:
SP Kevin Millwood, Jeremy Guthrie
INF Ty Wigginton
LF/DH Luke Scott
maybe LOOGY Wil Ohman

Cincinatti Reds
+1.5 games in NL Central
55.6% chance of making playoffs
Needs: SP
Targets: Millwood, Guthrie
Match for needs: Strong

Todd Frazier, INF-OF, Grade B+
Yonder Alonso, 1B, Grade B+
Juan Francisco, 3B, Grade B-
Brad Boxberger, RHP, Grade B-

Comments - The Reds do not have a lot of needs, but a guy like Ty Wigginton could be useful to them as a UTL making the rounds. Problem is that such a position would be difficult for any team to think it would make sense to deal a B level prospect for that limited level of production when so many options currently on the team are doing so well. I think the only way that happens would be if Scott Rolen goes down, but they might feel Juan Francisco is more than capable of filling that role. Starting pitching is another area that could use some help, but may not truly be a need. Leake and Cueto are pitching well. Expensive arms Harang and Arroyo . . . not so much. Homer Bailey is down with an injury and Sam LeCure has done well with smoke and mirrors, but his 12 walks in 17.1 innings is going to catch up with him in a hurry. For the Reds, I think the smart thing for them to do would be to deal for a starter. The Orioles might be useful in that. They could give them a rental with some cash kicked in with Millwood or they could deal for someone they could control in Guthrie. I truly think Guthrie would be a second tier pitcher in the NL. I think the Reds would be reluctant to give up Frazier, but Alonso would be someone who could be dealt. The Reds are set with Joey Votto at first base and Alonso is struggling a bit in AAA, unable to hit lefties. I think he will continue to have that platoon split, but would still be an above average 1B.

St. Louis Cardinals
-1.5 games in NL Central
80.1% chance of making playoffs
Needs: 2B, SP
Targets: Wigginton, Millwood, Guthrie
Match for needs: Strong

Shelby Miller, RHP, Grade B
Lance Lynn, RHP, Grade B-
Robert Stock, C, Grade B-
Daryl Jones, OF, Grade B-
Eduardo Sanchez, RHP, Grade B-
Allen Craig, 1B/OF, Grade B-

Comments - The Cardinals' system does not have much to offer the Orioles. The O's match them up well for the Cards' team needs, but not vice versa. Shelby Miller is off the table. Of the remaining players, you have an uninspiring batch of relief arms and fringe bats. Allen Craig looks like he could play in left or at first in the majors, but his bat has to come through. He does not have much of a margin of safety with his hit tool and might wind up being better suited as a DH. That is not exactly a type of player one would want to get in dealing a starter. Daryl Jones has a bag full of raw talent, but has been unable to build much with it. I think with such an uninspiring batch of talent, other teams will press the Cardinals for a couple of those B- players and one of their top third tier talents. It should be a package slightly higher than what the Rays got for Scott Kazmir last year.

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