12 June 2010

Trade Market Options: NL East Edition

NL East
NL Central
NL West
AL East

AL Central

AL West

After the jump, a list of B level prospects for each team in the NL who PECOTA projects as having at least a 10% chance to make the playoffs.

Orioles' Most Trade Worthy Items:
SP Kevin Millwood, Jeremy Guthrie
INF Ty Wigginton
LF/DH Luke Scott
maybe LOOGY Wil Ohman

Atlanta Braves
+2.5 games in NL East
65.2% chance of making playoffs
Needs: CF, maybe SP
Targets: Millwood, Guthrie
Match for needs: Not strong

Freddie Freeman, 1B, Grade B+
Julio Teheran, RHP, Grade B
Randall Delgado, RHP, Grade B
Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Grade B
Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Grade B
Mike Minor, LHP, Grade B-
Christian Bethancourt, C, Grade B-
Zeke Spruill, RHP, Grade B-

Comments - I have a hard time seeing the Braves make a significant move this season. They have financial difficulties that prevent them from making any deals that require too much payroll being taken on. It has become rare these days to see a trade occur where a team would take on money to get a better prospect. Carlos Santana, catching prospect with the Indians who has just been called up, is the most recent example of that sort of deal occurring . . . but it is rare. Braves would most likely be interested in giving up a power RHP in their low minors. I expect Freeman and Minor to be off the table. I also think Delgado might be a top 20 prospect next year. It just does not look like a good match to me.

New York Mets
-2.5 games in NL East
17.5% chance of making playoffs
Needs: 2B, SP
Targets: Wigginton, Millwood, Guthrie
Match for needs: Strong

Jenrry Mejia, RHP, Grade B+
Wilmer Flores, SS, Grade B+
Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+
Reese Havens, 2B, Grade B-
Kyle Allen, RHP, Grade B-
Jeurys Familia, RHP, Grade B-

Comments - The Mets do not have much in their system of interest, but they do match up well with the Orioles for needs. Mejia and Flores are going to be off the table. Havens seems like the focal point for the Orioles. He is a second baseman, who has a pretty good offensive bat. Currently, he is tearing up Binghamton in AA ball. He could spell Brian Roberts next year or the Orioles could go slow and let him accrue a season in Norfolk. Beyond him, F-Mart has been a mess this season and if targeted needs to be a second piece if anything at all in a package. Allen and Familia would also be worthy as second pieces as low minors RHP with upside.

Philadelphia Phillies
-2.5 games in NL East
33.6% chance of making playoffs
Needs: LF, ~SP
Targets: Scott, Millwood, Guthrie
Match for needs: Moderate

Domonic Brown, OF, Grade B+
Trevor May, RHP, Grade B-
Phillipe Aumont, RHP, Grade B-
J.C. Ramirez, RHP, Grade B-

Comments - The Phillies system was thin before the Halladay trade. It is thinner now. Brown will not be moved. He is a legit top 5 prospect next year. Of the rest, I don't see how any of them are good targets for the Orioles. They all look like bullpen arms to me. Aumont and May are getting hammered in the minors. I could see a deal being pressed here to fill the bullpen with exciting arms, but I think it would not be the wisest course of action.

Bonus Team
Washington Nationals
-5 games in NL East
3.6% chance of making playoffs
Needs: 2B, SP
Targets: Wigginton, Millwood, Guthrie
Match for needs: Strong

Derek Norris, C, Grade B+
Danny Espinosa, SS, Grade B
Chris Marrero, 1B, Grade B-
Jeff Kobernus, 2B, Grade B-
Michael Burgess, OF, Grade B-

Comments - The Nationals won't make the playoffs and should just not bother with dealing away prospects for the illusion of competition. That said . . . teams can sometimes overrate their own chances with a great deal of optimism. Norris is off the table as all indications have him as the heir apparent to IRod. For the Orioles, Espinosa would be the most interesting prospect. The Nats have Ian Desmond, but his star is dimming and a move to 2B for one of these guys would make for a cost efficient middle infield. I think it would be a hard sell for them. The Nats would probably choose to deal the down on their luck Chris Marrero or Michael Burgess or even a PTBNL in Jeff Kobernus. If I was dealing with the Nats, I'd hold out for Espinosa. The others are somewhat redundant in our system.

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