12 June 2010

Trade Market Options: NL West Edition

This is a continuation of a series exploring options in the trade market for the Orioles. The Orioles most useful available talent (i.e. Millwood, Guthrie, Wigginton, Scott) could probably net a return of one B level prospect and some C level secondary prospect. This series will review the teams arguably in contention and how well they match up with what the Orioles have and what the Orioles would want.

NL East
NL Central
NL West
AL East
AL Central
AL West

NL West after the jump...

Orioles' Most Trade Worthy Items:
SP Kevin Millwood, Jeremy Guthrie
INF Ty Wigginton
LF/DH Luke Scott
maybe LOOGY Wil Ohman

Los Angeles Dodgers
tied for 1st in NL West
63.1% chance of making playoffs
Needs: SP, ~power bat
Targets: Wigginton, Scott, Millwood, Guthrie
Match for needs: Strong for pitchers

Dee Gordon, SS, Grade B+
Chris Withrow, RHP, Grade B+
Ethan Martin, RHP, Grade B
Aaron Miller, LHP, Grade B
Josh Lindblom, RHP, Grade B
Scott Elbert, LHP, Grade B-
Andrew Lambo, OF, Grade B-
Garrett Gould, RHP, Grade B-
Ivan DeJesus, Jr, SS, Grade B-

Comments - I would say that really the only player who is probably off the board is Dee Gordon, but I think that the Dodgers are willing to deal anyone. What will be important for them would be for the team doing the trading to take on nearly all the money. This will make things difficult as teams typically do not understand sunk cost. With all the money held up by the divorce, now is probably an excellent time for a shrewd GM to wait until the Dodgers try to amp up their starting pitching, swallow a contract, and get Gordon or DeJesus and a power arm. I think the Guthrie and Millwood would both be of interest for the Dodgers. Wigginton and Scott are probably luxuries they can ill afford.

San Diego Padres
tied for 1st in NL West
32.7% chance of making playoffs
Needs: SS, CF, RF
Targets: None
Match for needs: Poor

Comments - I don't think there is much need to take a look at the Padres. The Orioles just do not match up well. The only thing that might make sense would be a simple Nolan Reimold for Kyle Blanks challenge trade. I doubt either the Orioles or Padres would be interested in such a thing.

San Francisco Giants
-2.5 games in NL West
26.0% chance of making playoffs
Needs: LF, ~SP
Targets: Scott, Millwood, Guthrie
Match for needs: Moderate

Thomas Neal, OF, Grade B
Zack Wheeler, RHP, Grade B
Roger Kieschnick, OF, Grade B-
Tommy Joseph, C, Grade B-
Waldis Joaquin, RHP, Grade B-
Jason Stoffel, RHP, Grade B-
Francisco Peguero, OF, Grade B-

Comments - Sabean is another crazy GM like Ned Colletti who believes in the mantra that prospects are not sure things, so they have little worth. That said, Wheeler and Joseph are going nowhere lest the entire scouting department has a heart attack. The Giants need to find a way to get Rowand out of the outfield and getting Scott would allow them to put Andres Torres in center. Scott would also give them another big bat to improve the team's slugging percentage which is 11th worst in the NL. The team has very toolsy outfielders and some decent arms. They are not exactly great fits with the Orioles who are in need of infield position players.

Colorado Rockies
-5 games in NL West
13.1% chance of making playoffs
Needs: 1B, 2B, SP
Targets: Wigginton, Millwood, Guthrie
Match for needs: Strong

Christian Friedrich, LHP, Grade B+
Tyler Matzek, LHP, Grade B+
Rex Brothers, LHP, Grade B-
Juan Nicasio, RHP, Grade B-
Wilin Rosario, C, Grade B-

Comments - The Rockies are typically not very easy with getting rid of prospects. Friedrich, Matzek, and Brothers would be off limits. I also think Nicasio is as well. That leaves Rosario and a bunch of third tier prospects. The Orioles just do not seem to match well here.

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