09 June 2010

Thoughts on the Orioles 2010 draft.

I doubt I am going to hear I name I recognize today, which is sad for me. Yesterday was full of moving into a new apartment. After figuring it all together, I climbed 164 flights of stairs. That is more vertical distance than the Sears tower while carrying things all greater than a 30lb rucksack. Anyway, I digress.

What does the draft, so far, mean to me? After the jump, I go pick to pick and have a short write up for each that I am aware of . . . I'm somewhat limited in my knowledge.

1:3 Manny Machado, ss, Brito Miami Private HS
As you probably remember, Nick and I were not too hot on Machado with respect to him being the third pick. I had him valued in the late to mid singles and Nick had him in the late singles and early teens. So, for all the negativity we express, we do think well of the guy. To restate my perspective, I think the chances of him staying at short are slim enough not to see him as a shortstop. I think the work remaining on his bat does not profile him as elite at third base. In light of that, I would have a hard time paying him the 5-6MM he is bound to get. We thought it more prudent to select a talent like Karsten Whitson for 2-3MM less and then use those savings to add a couple overslots in later rounds. But, yes, if Machado comes out, shows he can be an average defender (average range with a very good arm), shows good contact rate and plus power, and retains average foot speed . . . he will be an excellent addition to the O's system. I think he will be Delmarva bound.

3:3 Dan Klein, rhp, UCLA
I had Klein as the 99th player on my board and should be a slot pick. He comes off here as the 85th selection in the 2010 draft. He is a two pitch pitcher with his fastball and slider. Both are above average pitches with the potential for being consistently plus offerings. He also tosses a curve and a change. Both of those need a good deal of work. The Orioles are on record for turning Klein into a starter, so I imagine the curveball disappears and a great deal of work will go into the changeup to make him more effective against left handed batters. There are questions as to whether Klein can make the transition. He has a history of shoulder injuries to go along with the need to develop a third pitch. I had him as a 2 year development curve for being a reliever and a 4 year curve for being a starter. I think he opens next season at Delmarva. If there is an agreement in place, he may be in Aberdeen for a few innings this year. What lingers for me here is passing on the opportunity to throw money at AJ Cole. He did not get selected until 4:1, but a draft headlined by Machado and Cole and followed with slots would have been astounding in terms of ceiling.

4:3 Trent Mummey, OF, Auburn University
I have Mummey as the 215th player on my board. I think this was a slot selection. He missed part of the season recovering from a broken leg, but profiles as a center fielder with plus speed and plus defense. He had trouble turning his speed into stolen bases this year, which might be due to the lingering effects of his injury. I also think the power he showed in college this year 1hr/9at bats will not transfer over to wood and being outside of the college ranks. I think it is a decent pick.

5:3 Connor Narron, ss/3b, Aycock HS, Pikeville, N.C.
Narron is the son of former MLB player and manager Jerry Narron. I mentioned Jerry earlier this season as an in-season replacement for Dave Trembley. Conner was announced as a SS, but I thin that is being kind. He is going to be shifted off shortstop fairly quickly in either his pro or college career. He is probably going to require a good bit of money to sign. I imagine around 800k. He is a switch hitter who shows good plate discipline and power. BA mentioned he is a low intensity player, but that just may be a personality type that some scouts just do not understand. I think he is a good player to sign and, even though he is 224th on my board, I am delighted selecting him here with the 145th selection.

6:3 Dixon Anderson, rhp, California
I wrote up Anderson as a target for the seventh round and figured with his body size and sinker that he would be someone the Orioles would focus on. Looks like I was a round late. He is a sophomore and will have some leverage on his side to demand for overslot considerations. Anderson has been largely uneven in his work at college. I personally viewed him as someone who would live off mixing his fastballs and altering speeds to go along with developing a slider and splitter. The Orioles intend to start him off as a starter. He can probably get by on an average splitter in the minor until he gets to Bowie. By that point, he will need to see his slider coming around. I view him more as a reliever.

7:3 Matt Bywater, lhp, Pepperdine
I mainly ignored Bywater. He was not ranked on my board. He is a college pitcher who works well by pitching off his secondary pitches to present a fastball. He has a decent change and uses the speed difference to contrast with his below average velocity. I could be wrong, but I think he probably does well until he hits Frederick. A shift to left handed relief pitching facing him there or Frederick. With Chris Hernandez available (107th on my board), I must imagine there is something that I missed.

8:3 Winston Sawyer, c, Scripps Ranch HS (CA)
I am making up ground right now, having not been aware of Sawyer. The general take is that he is an offensive oriented catcher with a big frame at 6'2 and about 190. It is thought he will move off that position. Two HS catchers I like, Lavisky and DePew are still out there, so I cannot say why I don't like Sawyer . . . but I can say I would have preferred one of these other two.

9:3 Parker Bridwell, RHP, Hereford HS (TX)
I don't know anything about him other than he is a football player.

10:3 Clay Schrader, rhp, San Jacinto (Texas) JC
I have Schrader as the 222nd name on my board, so I think this is solid value here. Of course a few picks later, Tyler Holt went, and he is the 74th player on my board. Oh well. Schrader has a low 90s fastball and a very good slider. I think he might be slightly overslot here, but would be a good value on a promising relief pitcher. As far as I know, he has shown no touch for a third pitch other than a rather poor curve (movement and significant arm action issues).

Beyond the tenth round?
I do not have a single player ranked that the Orioles draft. According to what I have read . . . it seems Austin Urban and Cameron Roth are guys to pay attention to if they can be signed.


Matt A said...

Thanks for your time in posting all of this... great coverage... thanks!

Jon Shepherd said...

Thanks Matt. Just a heads up, I am trying to get Dan Moroz and the guy behind Dempsey's blog to do a live draft chat/discussion next week.