What an extraordinarily frustrating series. The called strikezone greatly benefited the Orioles in one game, benefited the Rays in another, and was neutral in another, which shouldn't be masked by the overall high correct call rates (first series this season with all three games over 90% correct). The Orioles even came out ahead on calls in favor to calls against, 22 to 19, but this series demonstrates that not all incorrect calls are created equal. There is a significant difference between random pitches called incorrectly here and there compared to a massive shifting of the strikezone in one direction or another.
Click through the jump for the game-by-game breakdown.
May 17, 2013: Baltimore Orioles - 10, Tampa Bay Rays - 12
For all of the pondering of the value of a ball or a strike, the Orioles were crushed by a terrible call Friday. On a 2-2 pitch, Hammel put a breaking ball over the inside corner to Kelly Johnson. The ball was about 2" inside the zone. The umpire called it a ball. On the next pitch, Johnson bounced a ball off the top of the groundskeeper shed for a 3 run HR. 5 - 3 Rays. By the end of the 3rd inning, Hammel was jobbed out of 4 strikes on the inside corner against LHB. Hammel didn't do himself any favors in the game, giving up 7 ER and 10 H / 2 BB in 4.2 IP. But still, it's hard to swallow when a terrible call by the umpire so clearly costs the team 3 ER and runs up the pitch count, affecting the bullpen for who knows how long.
Unfortunately, the terrible calls continued greatly affecting the Orioles pitchers. The Orioles threw 10 pitches on the inner third of the plate to Rays LHB where no contact was made (i.e. the umpire made the call). Of these, just 2 were called strikes. A full third of the plate was effectively taken away from the Orioles vs. LHB. The Rays threw just 4 pitches on the inner third to LHB where no contact was made. Of these, 2 were called strikes and 2 were called balls.
I'm not sure what to make of this. The Orioles were crushed on the inside third to LHB, both in real terms and in relative terms compared to the Rays. However, the Orioles never really tried to adjust to the zone. The Orioles were getting called strikes on the outer third to LHB, but they didn't really make a concerted effort to try and extend into the Tzone. Just 5 pitches were thrown in the Tzone from -0.85' to -1.25', and 2 were called strikes while 3 resulted in contact. Both called strikes were on pitches that Hammel started on the outside corner and then allowed his natural movement to bring off the plate, which is a pitch that presents very well to the umpire. Either way, it's exceptionally difficult on the pitchers when they lose a third of the plate.
It's very difficult to make definitive statements, because changing even one pitch adjusts the entire course of an at bat and the game (Butterfly Effect). However, it seems like this game is a possible example of an umpire's strikezone costing the Orioles enough pitches that they would have likely won the game under normal strikezone circumstances.
| Umpire | Real | % of Total |
% of Chances |
Typical | % of Total |
% of Chances |
| Correct Calls | 159 | 90.86% | 155 | 88.57% | ||
| Incorrect Calls | 16 | 9.14% | 20 | 11.43% | ||
| Balls Called Balls | 114 | 65.14% | 97.44% | 107 | 61.14% | 100.00% |
| Strikes Called Strikes | 45 | 25.71% | 77.59% | 48 | 27.43% | 70.59% |
| Strikes Called Balls | 13 | 7.43% | 22.41% | 20 | 11.43% | 29.41% |
| Balls Called Strikes | 3 | 1.71% | 2.56% | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Borderline - Balls | 22 | 12.57% | 61.11% | |||
| Borderline - Strikes | 14 | 8.00% | 38.89% | |||
| Baltimore Orioles | Real | % of Team |
% of Chances |
Typical | % of Team |
% of Chances |
| Ball Called Ball | 74 | 66.07% | 97.37% | 69 | 61.61% | 100.00% |
| Strike Called Strike | 26 | 23.21% | 72.22% | 28 | 25.00% | 65.12% |
| Strike Called Ball | 10 | 8.93% | 27.78% | 15 | 13.39% | 34.88% |
| Ball Called Strike | 2 | 1.79% | 2.63% | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Borderline Pitches | 50 | 25.91% | ||||
| Borderline - Balls | 17 | 62.96% | ||||
| Borderline - Strikes | 10 | 37.04% | ||||
| Calls in Favor | 5 | 2.86% | 5 | 2.86% | ||
| Calls Against | 11 | 6.29% | 15 | 8.57% | ||
| Tampa Bay Rays | Real | % of Team |
% of Chances |
Typical | % of Team |
% of Chances |
| Ball Called Ball | 40 | 63.49% | 97.56% | 38 | 60.32% | 100.00% |
| Strike Called Strike | 19 | 30.16% | 86.36% | 20 | 31.75% | 80.00% |
| Strike Called Ball | 3 | 4.76% | 13.64% | 5 | 7.94% | 20.00% |
| Ball Called Strike | 1 | 1.59% | 2.44% | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Borderline Pitches | 24 | 38.17% | ||||
| Borderline - Balls | 5 | 55.56% | ||||
| Borderline - Strikes | 4 | 44.44% | ||||
| Calls in Favor | 11 | 6.29% | 15 | 8.57% | ||
| Calls Against | 5 | 2.86% | 5 | 2.86% |
May 18, 2013: Baltimore Orioles - 6, Tampa Bay Rays - 10
Let's not even talk about what Jim Johnson is going through right now, other than to take a look at his release points for the game and leave it at that.
Facing off against the infamous Jose Molina's pitch-framing skills, one would expect this game to have more borderline strikes in favor of the Rays. Well, there wasn't too much damage done. He managed to frame two pitches outside the Tzone for strikes, but running to 2B was more than a Flying Molina brother could handle and he was forced out of the game with a hamstring issue. After that, the game was called with a clear and fair strikezone for the most part.
| Umpire | Real | % of Total |
% of Chances |
Typical | % of Total |
% of Chances |
| Correct Calls | 169 | 93.37% | 163 | 90.06% | ||
| Incorrect Calls | 12 | 6.63% | 18 | 9.94% | ||
| Balls Called Balls | 117 | 64.64% | 94.35% | 106 | 58.56% | 98.15% |
| Strikes Called Strikes | 52 | 28.73% | 91.23% | 57 | 31.49% | 78.08% |
| Strikes Called Balls | 5 | 2.76% | 8.77% | 16 | 8.84% | 21.92% |
| Balls Called Strikes | 7 | 3.87% | 5.65% | 2 | 1.10% | 1.85% |
| Borderline - Balls | 17 | 9.39% | 39.53% | |||
| Borderline - Strikes | 26 | 14.36% | 60.47% | |||
| Baltimore Orioles | Real | % of Team |
% of Chances |
Typical | % of Team |
% of Chances |
| Ball Called Ball | 63 | 68.48% | 95.45% | 57 | 61.96% | 98.28% |
| Strike Called Strike | 24 | 26.09% | 92.31% | 26 | 28.26% | 76.47% |
| Strike Called Ball | 2 | 2.17% | 7.69% | 8 | 8.70% | 23.53% |
| Ball Called Strike | 3 | 3.26% | 4.55% | 1 | 1.09% | 1.72% |
| Borderline Pitches | 47 | 29.01% | ||||
| Borderline - Balls | 9 | 39.13% | ||||
| Borderline - Strikes | 14 | 60.87% | ||||
| Calls in Favor | 6 | 3.31% | 9 | 4.97% | ||
| Calls Against | 6 | 3.31% | 9 | 4.97% | ||
| Tampa Bay Rays | Real | % of Team |
% of Chances |
Typical | % of Team |
% of Chances |
| Ball Called Ball | 54 | 60.67% | 93.10% | 49 | 55.06% | 98.00% |
| Strike Called Strike | 28 | 31.46% | 90.32% | 31 | 34.83% | 79.49% |
| Strike Called Ball | 3 | 3.37% | 9.68% | 8 | 8.99% | 20.51% |
| Ball Called Strike | 4 | 4.49% | 6.90% | 1 | 1.12% | 2.00% |
| Borderline Pitches | 47 | 27.98% | ||||
| Borderline - Balls | 8 | 40.00% | ||||
| Borderline - Strikes | 12 | 60.00% | ||||
| Calls in Favor | 6 | 3.31% | 9 | 4.97% | ||
| Calls Against | 6 | 3.31% | 9 | 4.97% |
May 19, 2013: Baltimore Orioles - 1, Tampa Bay Rays - 3
Where did the offense go? Well, for one thing, Chris Tillman and Matt Moore were pitching, both of whom have been good to excellent this season. However, this game does show one major problem for the Orioles: even when a pitcher throws extremely well, he is throwing way too many pitches. Tillman went 6 IP, gave up 3 ER, and just 6 H+BB. The problem is, he still threw 111 pitches. Moore threw 7 IP, gave up 1 ER, and allowed 6 H+BB, but threw 106 pitches. The Orioles have got to become more efficient. The only thing saving the bullpen right now is having multiple former starters in McFarland, Hunter, Matusz, and Patton, all of whom can throw multiple IP out of the 'pen.
On that note, this game was the polar opposite of Friday's. The Orioles greatly benefited from the called strikezone compared to the Rays. That's actually almost more troubling than when the Orioles are hammered by the umpire, because even with the favorable strikezone, they still threw more pitches and lost the game.
| Umpire | Real | % of Total |
% of Chances |
Typical | % of Total |
% of Chances |
| Correct Calls | 148 | 91.36% | 144 | 88.89% | ||
| Incorrect Calls | 14 | 8.64% | 18 | 11.11% | ||
| Balls Called Balls | 106 | 65.43% | 92.98% | 96 | 59.26% | 97.96% |
| Strikes Called Strikes | 42 | 25.93% | 87.50% | 48 | 29.63% | 75.00% |
| Strikes Called Balls | 6 | 3.70% | 12.50% | 16 | 9.88% | 25.00% |
| Balls Called Strikes | 8 | 4.94% | 7.02% | 2 | 1.23% | 2.04% |
| Borderline - Balls | 26 | 16.05% | 68.42% | |||
| Borderline - Strikes | 12 | 7.41% | 31.58% | |||
| Baltimore Orioles | Real | % of Team |
% of Chances |
Typical | % of Team |
% of Chances |
| Ball Called Ball | 60 | 65.22% | 88.24% | 56 | 60.87% | 96.55% |
| Strike Called Strike | 21 | 22.83% | 87.50% | 27 | 29.35% | 79.41% |
| Strike Called Ball | 3 | 3.26% | 12.50% | 7 | 7.61% | 20.59% |
| Ball Called Strike | 8 | 8.70% | 11.76% | 2 | 2.17% | 3.45% |
| Borderline Pitches | 47 | 28.31% | ||||
| Borderline - Balls | 15 | 60.00% | ||||
| Borderline - Strikes | 10 | 40.00% | ||||
| Calls in Favor | 11 | 6.79% | 11 | 6.79% | ||
| Calls Against | 3 | 1.85% | 7 | 4.32% | ||
| Tampa Bay Rays | Real | % of Team |
% of Chances |
Typical | % of Team |
% of Chances |
| Ball Called Ball | 46 | 65.71% | 100.00% | 40 | 57.14% | 100.00% |
| Strike Called Strike | 21 | 30.00% | 87.50% | 21 | 30.00% | 70.00% |
| Strike Called Ball | 3 | 4.29% | 12.50% | 9 | 12.86% | 30.00% |
| Ball Called Strike | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Borderline Pitches | 27 | 37.30% | ||||
| Borderline - Balls | 11 | 84.62% | ||||
| Borderline - Strikes | 2 | 15.38% | ||||
| Calls in Favor | 3 | 1.85% | 7 | 4.32% | ||
| Calls Against | 11 | 6.79% | 11 | 6.79% |
14 comments:
It may be time to start thinking about who to deal at the deadline. O's have no starting pitching and considering TB and NY they just aren't going anywhere fast even though they may have the best lineup in the AL East. It won't happen but I would be putting feelers out on Markakis and Wieters and Hardy and Johnson. Markakis they would have to eat some salary but I know what he can do and I'm interested in seeing Urrutia get 500 MLB at bats.
Wieters has been worth half as much WAR this year as Chris Stewart and Francisco Cervelli. At some point it will become apparent that the Emperor has no clothes, it is very apparent to me and before we get sucked into the quicksand of a 7 year 100 million dollar contract that will be more regrettable than Albert Belle I wish the Orioles would recognize it.
It is time for a mini-rebuild. Come back next year with Machado/Schoop/Gausman/Urrutia/Davis. Try to get some prospects, I'm sure the Nats would give up Rendon for Wieters. Maybe the Tigers would give up something good for Johnson and or Hardy. This season is pretty much a lost cause, not winning with Freddy Garcia pitching against Sabathia or Jason Hammel as your ace.
I think you're massively underrating Wieters's value. And the rebuild talk is laughable.
What do you view Wieters value as? You think he is a star? He has exceeded 4 WAR once and will be 28 next year at a position where injury and age come into play. You want to give him 15 million through age 34 because that is what it will take for Boras to go along? This year he has been exactly as valuable as Francisco Cervelli per Fangraphs only Cervelli played in 42.5% of the games Wieters has. Keep drinking the media Kool Aid if you want, hard numbers do not back you up.
Not saying complete rebuild. Just a non-core reset. Gausman/Machado/Jones (since he is signed)/Schoop/Urrutia/Davis etc. Nick Markakis at 17 million seems stupid to me since he can't run or hit for power. Wieters at 15 million or whatever seems stupid to me since he can't hit or run. Open up a spot to see what Hoes can do, open up a spot by trading Hardy for a prospect. They aren't going anywhere fast this season.
If you're looking at WAR through May to determine Wieters's overall and future value, you're using it wrong. A 3-4 WAR catcher is a valuable asset and shouldn't be tossed aside because of a cold-hitting stretch. And I don't drink the media Kool-Aid. I've written about trading Markakis previously or even Jim Johnson, though I'm not sure either one of those is feasible at the moment.
Hitting the panic button right now seems pretty ridiculous, and the same can be said for thinking the Orioles were championship contenders just because they played so well in April. It's way too early to make any kind of huge decisions like trading significant team pieces.
By the way, Henry Urrutia is 26 years old and is playing in Bowie. It's far too early to proclaim him as any amazing talent just yet. Most prospect analysts consider him to be a fourth outfielder at best. I'm not sure how he got thrown in with Machado and Gausman.
A 3-4 WAR catcher is a valuable asset if
1. He is actually worth 3-4 WAR
2. You are not paying enormous sums of money for that 3-4 WAR.
1. Questionable at best, his pace this season through the quarter pole is more like 2-2.5 WAR.
2. Not questionable. Going rate in FA is 5 mill per WAR. You will have to pay at least that for Wieters while assuming all age decline and injury risk. Will he be worth 3-4 WAR at age 33? Not likely. And he has been healthy, he just isn't very good when he is healthy.
Chen wasn't hurt in April and Hammel hadn't completely regressed. There was hope. I never fully bought into it but figured if they could hold the fort down until Gausman they had a shot. Didn't happen, time to move on.
But will Urrutia be much worse than Markakis and his .319 w/OBA? At 400K versus 17 million I'd like to find out.
Agree to disagree on Wieters, I guess. And you would insert Urrutia into the lineup right now? And play him every day in front of Markakis? That doesn't make any sense, and you're probably the only person I've seen with a comment like that.
If we get to June/July and the O's have completely fallen off, that's something different in terms of dealing players away. At that point, it would make sense to deal someone like Hardy and move Machado to shortstop. But we're not there yet.
We can agree to disagree on how we value Wieters currently though he isn't getting younger and a long term contract isn't going to mean more value than you are getting now unless he defies usual aging curves.
I think you are under the impression the O's can or will have the Dodgers payroll. They have zero pitching under contract past 2014 aside from Tillman. Jones makes 15. You want to pay Wieters 15. Jim Johnson will be making 10 next year. Davis will easily get 10 in a couple years through arbitration. Markakis makes 17 next year. Hardy makes 7 next year, etc. Angelos is not going to a 150-175 million dollar payroll which means tough choices. All things being equal and if Wieters made the MLB minimum I'd keep him. But he isn't this tremendous superstar the Baltimore media portrays him to be and Markakis with his .319 w/OBA is not either. How much worse could Urrutia - making 16.6 mill less that could be spent on pitching - be than Markakis? You think he is never going to get a hit, he is tearing up AA. Not a sign of panic at all, just reality. Markakis is not a spring chicken either.
Alex Cobb is better than every O's pitcher by a large margin and he is Rays 4th starter. Hard to see much hope of winning the division with that. Just reality, not trying to be a downer.
Roberts ($10 million) comes off the books next year. So does Wada ($4.2 million). Hammel's making about $7 million this year, and he might not return. Betemit could be gone as well, along with Casilla. Yeah, some guys will get raises and they need to figure out the pitching staff, but I think they are a little more flexible than you think.
Again, I'm not against trying to trade Jim Johnson, Hardy, or several other guys if we get to summer and this team isn't that good.
Just do the math if you want to keep these guys for 2014.
NM - 17
MW - 10 (arbitration, not long term deal which would be more)
CD - 8
Hardy - 7
Johnson -10
Jones -13
Chen - 4
ODay - 3
matusz -4
That is 76 mill for 9 guys not including insurance. This year's payroll is 91. So you have 15 mill for 3/5ths of a pitching staff, a 2B, a LF, etc. or the payroll will have to be expanded.
Plus, the current team is more than proving they aren't good enough and above would just be a replay except a year older. If you can' t beat NY this year you may as well get out of the baseball business.
I'd say Wieters is worth as much as Price presuming they both bounce back. I think both are good bets to do so.
But the Rangers really need an upgrade at catcher. If things go south then maybe you try and get Profar, Perez and Soto for Wieters and Steve Johnson. I think Wieters has another 4 or 5 good years in him. If he wants an eight year deal then I'm not sure I'd make him a core player.
Guys like Machado, Gausman, Gonzalez etc will be making little this year. That's how you afford to keep everyone.
I'm as sabermetrically inclined as anyone but eventually results matter. I realize Wieters walks and has a low BABIP but his production is the worst of his career. Fact. And he is the slowest person in baseball and rolls over balls like a Labrador retriever rolls over for a dog cookie. It isn't weird his BABIP is low.
I just don't think he is that good, certainly not long term extension for big money good but the more I watch him I'm not sure he is play 130 games good. Plenty of catchers are outplaying him right now including 2 on the Yankees that have as much WAR as he does alone. Yeah it is still early but his approach sucks and has gotten worse.
Agree with you on Gausman and Machado but you still need 2-3 starters, a 2B, a LF...if the payroll is kept flat something will have to give soon.
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