2011 Trade Deadline: Koji Uehara, reality vs. possibility (Part 2)

In Part 1 of our look at the Koji Uehara deal, we broke down Baltimore's haul (Tommy Hunter and Chris Davis). In Part 2, we will take a closer look at each of our suggested deals for Uehara, provide some more indepth analysis of the players we were targeting and finally compare our hauls with Baltimore's actual get.

The possibilities...
Detroit Tigers
Our suggested packages:

1. Chance Ruffin (rhp, Tigers - ML) and Drew Smyly (lhp, Lakeland - AA)


2. Andy Oliver (lhp, Toledo - AAA) and Drew Smyly

Whether you prefer option 1 or option 2 depends on whether you prefer a good relief arm that could be stretched out to start, or a potential solid starter that could be good in relief. I lean to to the Chance Ruffin package, as it gives you a "now" bullpen arm that can step into the 6th/7th inning and push everyone else back an inning. Eventually I expect Ruffin to be a late-inning guy if he stays in the pen. There is a chance he grows into a mid-rotation arm if stretched out.

Scouting Summarys (Ruffin and Smyly):
Ruffin is a slightly undersized righty that showed four pitches as both a starter and a closer at the University of Texas. He has pitched exclusively in relief for the Tigers, logging just 45 innings between Double-A and Triple-A before being promoted last week. You can find some of my scouting video on Ruffin here.

At UT, Ruffin generally sat 90-92 mph with his fastball and has bumped that to 91-94 mph this summer. There is some armside life and he has shown an ability to spot it to both sides of the plate. His slider is a wipeout offering at its best, coming with tilt and late bite (generally low-80s velo). Though he hasn't shown them often as a pro, Ruffin also has an 11-to-5 curve and a change-up in his repertoire. The curve doesn't have great depth, but when he snaps a good one its tight and can change the eye-level of the hitter. His change is undeveloped, and stands as the biggest hurdle to converting to a starter.

His armslot is true three-quarters, and the arm action is fairly clean. He'll flash the ball to hitters on the backside, but the ill effects are minimal since his slider and fastball grip are not easily discernable. If he were to fold a change-up in the mix more often, he may need to address this.

Ruffin is a potential late-inning arm with closer stuff if he can continue to grow his fastball and slider command. Even if he does not make the conversion to starter, it would be nice to see him drop his curveball from time to time, as it could be another putaway pitch and at minimum would give him a true change-of-pace offering.

Smyly was a 2nd Round selection in the 2010 draft and has spent the bulk of 2011 in Lakeland (A+), where he averaged 8.6 SO/9 and 3.67 SO/BB. He has made one start at Double-A Erie, tossing seven shutout innings while striking out eight and allowing just six baserunners (four via hit, two via walk).

Long and lean, Smyly's strength is his ability to change speeds and create tough angles with his long limbs. His fastball vacillates between 87 and 92, sitting most comfortably 89-91 mph with solid bore. His curve works well out of a high slot and is an above-average to plus pitch when he's hitting his release. Smyly has made strides with his change-up, which was fringy at best at Alabama and likely tops out as an average offering when all is said and done.

Smyly's high arm slot and long arms helps to produce excellent plane on each of his offerings, and makes him very difficult to square-up. His landing could be softened some, particularly on his curve which he has a tendency not to finish. He'll come across his body some, as well, but all in all there is a lot to like about his easy motion and release.

Smyly could be a mid-rotation arm with continued improvement in his secondaries. His easy motion has allowed him to locate well -- even with inconsistent off-speed stuff -- and he offers enough physical projection that you could dream on another uptick in velo, as well.

Conclusion:
Ruffin - Potential late inning arm, Major League ready, could handle late-inning work by 2012.
Smyly - Potential mid-rotation starter, Double-A in 2012, could be ML ready by late 2012/early 2013.


Texas Rangers
Our suggested packages:

1. Robbie Erlin (lhp, Frisco - AA; Note: traded to San Diego, now San Antonio - AA)


2. Mike Olt (3b, Myrtle Beach - A+)


3. Jordan Akins (of, Rangers - Rookie) and Justin Grimm (rhp, Myrtle Beach - A+)

I ranked Mike Olt as a 3rd Round talent last spring, and the Rangers nabbed him in the Supplemental-1st Round, ultimately singing him for an affordable $715,000. In his first taste of pro ball he has improved his contact rate and his defense, while continuing to show good power. Still, at 22 years old in HiA, I have enough concerns about his probability to prefer the safety of option 1 or the disbursed risk of option 3. While option 3 may ultimately provide the highest upside, it probably makes more sense to focus on talent closer to contributing with the current "core" in place at Baltimore. That leaves Robbie Erlin as our suggested package with the Rangers.

Scouting Summarys (Erlin):
Robbie Erlin split his 2011 summer in the Rangers system between Myrtle Beach (A+) and Frisco (AA), before being moved to the Padres system as part of the Mike Adams trade. Erlin is undersized for a starter, listed at just 6-foot, 175-pounds, but possesses the arsenal and command to eventually land him in the middle of a Major League rotation. He has consistently hit a BB/9 rate around 1.0 as he's progressed through the Minors, while posting a career SO/9 rate over 9.0 through 246 innings (never dipping below 8.7 at any level).

His arsenal is lead by an upper-80s to low-90s fastball that tops around 92 mph -- an average offering that plays up because of Erlin's surgical placement. His secondaries consist of an upper-70s hard 1-to-7 breaker that flashes plus and is consistently and average or better offering, and a mid-70s change with fade and late drop. Both his breaking ball and change-up could be true plus offerings when all is said and done, and at minimum the diminutive lefty should boast three average or better weapons with easy plus to plus-plus command.

Erlin's mechanics are minimalist and clean, with excellent pacing, a short arm circle and consistent timing and release. He throws out of a high-three-quarters slot, giving his pitches some angle in spire of his size. With one of the prettiest motions you will find, there is little doubt that Erlin will continue to place pitches to the quadrants, which will help him make the necessary adjustments at Triple-A and eventually with the big club in San Diego.

Though he won't light up radar guns, Erlin is a strike thrower with two potential plus offerings in his curve and change-up, who shows elite command of all of his offerings and an advanced approach to pitching. He works with a purpose on the mound and will be providing valuable innings at the Major League level sooner rather than later. He tops out as a #3, but is a good bet to get there.

Conclusion:
Erlin - Potential mid-rotation starter, Triple-A in 2012, could be ML ready by early 2012.

Philadelphia Phillies
Our suggested packages:

1. Jonathan Singleton (1b, Lakeland - A+; Note: traded to Houston, now Lancaster - A+)


2. Brody Colvin (rhp, Lakeland - A+)

Jonathan Singleton was included in the Hunter Pence deal, along with fellow Lakeland prospect and Futures Game participant Jarred Cosart and Josh Zeid (Reading - AA), and thus is highly unlikely to have been available to land a relief arm. Similarly, it seems unlikely Philly would unload Brody Colvin after already moving one third of the Lakeland Trio (Cosart, Colvin and Trevor May). Accordingly, we aren't going to dig into the details on Singleton or Colvin...yet. Check in tomorrow, as we'll be writing up two larger deals potentially available to Baltimore -- one of which could have netted Colvin, Singelton and more.

Conclusion:
Neither suggested package likely available for Uehara.


Pittsburgh Pirates
Our suggested packages:

1. Zach Von Rosenberg (rhp, West Virginia - A)


2. Starling Marte (of, Altoona - AA) and Brooks Pounders (rhp, West Virginia - A)


3. Starling Marte and Jeff Locke (rhp, Altoona - AA)

None of the players listed above ended-up moved this past weekend. Further, Pittsburgh's acquisition of Derrek Lee (see yesterday's Cup of jO's) and Ryan Ludwick in exchange for organizational filler indicates that while the Bucs are still taking 2011 seriously, they aren't going to sacrifice any significant future pieces for a one year push. That leaves us dubious that any of the above would seriously be shopped for a relief arm. There were rumors that the Pirates were in on some of the big arms floating around, but we are comfortable striking them from consideration given what actually transpired at the deadline.

Conclusion:
Unlikely to move suggested players for Uehara.


Settling on our deal...
After narrowing our search and providing details on our targets, we are left with two potential packages for Uehara:

1. Uehara to the Tigers for Chance Ruffin and Drew Smyly


2. Uehara to the Rangers for Robbie Erlin

Saying this, we of course note that there is no guarantee that the Tigers or the Rangers would have agreed to these terms. It is our best estimation based on our own player evaluation, our analysis of what transpired at the deadline, and our analysis of the needs of all teams involved.

Erlin was moved to San Diego along with fellow Double-A arm Joe Wieland in exchange for relief pitching. Wieland's growth in 2011 puts him closer to Erlin in "value" now than he was at the beginning of the season, and it is not a stretch to think that had Baltimore pushed for Erlin they could have received him.

All signs indicate that Ruffin is to be the "player to be named later" in the deal that brought Doug Fister and David Pauley over from Seattle. With Francisco Martinez anchoring that trade from the Detroit side, it's certainly possible that the Tigers could have found another player -- perhaps Andy Oliver -- to include in the Seattle package. Further, the Tigers would have had no need for Pauley with Koji in pocket, so perhaps no player would have been needed to sub into that deal at all.

The benefit of the Detroit deal is two-fold: 1) you get back two pieces, each of which could be above-average Major Leaguers, and 2) you get a ready replacement for Uehara in the pen. The benefit of the Texas deal is the high-probability that Erlin will find success, given his command and approach. With the Orioles's influx of young arms in place and recently stumbling at the Major League level, and with many of them struggling in particular with command, the thought of adding a 1 BB/9 arm to the mix at some point next year is too good to pass on. Both packages are good value for Koji, but if we make the call we go with Erlin.

Camden Depot suggested trade:
Koji Uehara (rhp, ML) to Texas Rangers
Robbie Erlin (rhp, AA) to Baltimore Orioles

It's a toss-up whether we like Erlin more, less, or about the same as the Tommy Hunter/Chris Davis package actually received. There is big upside in Davis's bat and Hunter has already shown success as a starter and reliever in the pitcher-friendly Ballpark in Arlington. It will be interesting to compare these three over the next four years and revisit this post once everything shakes out.

Next up:
Did Baltimore miss the boat on a potential blockbuster? Another two part series exploring a few deals larger in structure and centered on two different O's.

Cup of jO's (August 1, 2011): Derrek Lee dump

Game Summary
Orioles 2, Yankees 4
Box Score / Play-by-Play / AP Recap

Baltimore dropped the final game of the series to the Bombers and finish the AL East portion of their road trip with a 2-5 record against Toronto and New York. The Birds round out July without winning a single series and have now gone almost two months since winning a series against an AL opponent. They were outscored 33-10 in the Bronx.

Next up is Kansas City -- Alfredo Simon will toe the rubber opposite former Oriole Bruce Chen on Tuesday night in the opening game of a three-game set.

Of interest...
In addition to trading stopper Koji Uehara this past weekend, Derrek Lee was moved to Pittsburgh in exchange for first baseman Aaron Baker, a 23-year old org bat who has spent 2011 in the A-Advanced Florida State League. Baker has a tick above-average raw pop and a thick frame portending impressive batting practice displays. His bat speed is merely "okay", and it's unlikely he amounts to more than an organizational piece capable of playing a solid first base and providing average production until he runs into advanced arms.

While the return is nominal, no one really expected a haul for the veteran Lee, who has struggled through a disappointing 2011 posting a triple-slash line of .246/.302/.404 over 364 plate appearances. At the same time, Orioles fans have much to celebrate with this transaction. With a tip of the hat to Mr. Lee for serving his sentence in Charm City, and best wishes as he departs for a NL Central pennant race as the second newest member of the Bucs (Pittsburgh subsequently acquired Ryan Ludwick from the Padres), Baltimoreans can take away two big positives from the former All-Star's departure.

First and foremost, this signals that Andy MacPhail and the brain trust coordinating the personnel decisions appear to truly be dedicated to giving Chris Davis every chance to get comfortable and show what he has as a starting first baseman. This was a large concern following the Uehara deal, as noted in Part 1 of our Koji trade analysis, and it is terrific news that the organization is going to make at least a two month commitment to figuring out whether or not Davis looks like a future contributor.

Secondly, Baltimore should be saving a little over one million dollars once cash considerations on the Lee deal are taken into account. Hopefully we will see that saved money funneled into draft signings. It would be a nice chunk of change to tack on to the offer to Georgia commit Nicky Delmonico (3b, Farragut HS, Knoxville, Tenn.) or enough to sign TCU outfielder Jason Coats outright (with some jingle left over). Of course, it's possible that the freed-up cash is required to meet 1st Rounder Dylan Bundy's immense asking price, but with plenty of other troubles in Birdland we prefer to remain positive. Here's to looking back on August 16th and fondly remembering when Mr. MacPhail was able to move Derrek Lee for an org bat and an overslot signing or two.

Note: We will not be running a "possibilities" piece on the Lee deal. Baltimore achieved a solid salary dump -- little more needs to fleshed out here. We will discuss Koji a bit more today (promise) and will also share some thoughts on what, if any, other moves would have been nice to see prior to yesterday's 4pm Eastern trade deadline.

2011 Trade Deadline: Koji Uehara, reality vs. possibility (Part 1)

In our last discussion of Koji Uehara we laid out some potential suitors and target packages we would expect attainable in exchange for one of the top relievers this summer. Between then and now, Koji was shipped off to the Texas Rangers for two reasonably young players ready to step in at the Major League level -- Chris Davis (cof/cif) and Tommy Hunter (rhp). Below we'll examine this return. This afternoon we will finish with our analysis as to what we would have liked to have seen done, as relates to Uehara.

Reality: Koji for Davis and Hunter
The trade package that Andy MacPhail landed ends up a very solid return from a value standpoint. Baltimore sold high on a mid-30s relief arm with one more year of control ready to vest ($4 million) and obtained two mid-20s talents with no need for any more time in the Minors. My assumption is that the deal was structured around Uehara for Hunter, with Baltimore pushing for Davis's inclusion and Texas agreeing in exchange for the O's picking-up $2 million of Koji's 2012 salary. The $2 million is not insignificant in this context, but even as a fringe-average ML bat Davis will be worth more than that over his next four seasons under control.

Chris Davis (corner infield/corner outfield)
Most prospect enthusiasts are well aware that Davis's calling card is his elite raw power, which grades as a 75/80 on the scouting scale. The issue comes in trying to get that raw power to manifest in Major League game action, as he's long to contact with a max effort swing. This forces Davis to commit early to pitches and has lead to far too many empty swings chasing off-speed pitches at the Big League level. If Davis can make some adjustments and shorten his swing, he should see a decrease in strikeouts, which in turn should give him extra contact opportunities to get his power involved. There is Mark Reynolds upside, but it is going to take just short of an overhaul in approach and swing. As a secondary piece to the deal, this is a fine risk, but the odds are against Davis until he proves he has the ability to start making adjustments.

Defensively, Davis has soft hands at first base, and enough athleticism to fill in at a corner outfield spot or even at third. While his athleticism gives him enough flexibility to move around some, his best fit is at the three spot, and it seems unlikely he tops out at more than a fringe average defender in the other three corners.

Tommy Hunter (rhp)
Hunter is an established back-end starter with five more years of control before he can leave via free agency. Not a bad start, eh? In fact, that alone is certain "enough" return on Koji to make this a smart deal. Hunter is a big, durable body with an easy arm and uncomplicated motion. His fastball lives in the 89-92 range, but can bump as high as 96 mph when he's reaching back for it. He'll drop an upper-70s breaker for a different look, he commands the solid average pitch well enough. His change-up is also a legit average Major League offering, and when he turns it over he gets some fade.

While Hunter boasts a true average arsenal and commands each of his three offerings, his ceiling is limited due to his lack of a true out pitch and a corresponding inability to miss bats. Baltimore is hoping for a durable innings-eater that consistently will get them 6 or 7 innings a start. With continued growth we could see Hunter put together a season or two of legit #3 production, placing him on par with the likes of Jake Arrieta from a "value" standpoint. All-in-all a nice arm to have under control for the next four seasons, and someone that will hopefully provide some stability at the #4 spot while Baltimore waits for Matusz, Britton and perhaps Tillman and Arrieta to take a step forward.

Final thoughts
It is impossible to look at the deal and consider it a loss for the O's. In return for a relief arm with no real role in the club's future, Baltimore landed two 25 year olds -- one with a bit of upside and not a lot of probability, and the other likely to be a solid contributor but not much more than that. Further, adding $2 million to the deal is a no brainer if it gets you back Davis. It is another strong value package landed by MacPhail and another feather in his "good trade" hat.

The biggest challenge for Baltimore is going to be not falling into bad habits moving forward. While the return for the deal is solid, much of it is negated if Baltimore turns around and commits another $5-7 million per year on a two or three year deal for more relief pitching this off-season. Further, the Orioles can't approach developing Davis the same way that they have Nolan Reimold. Davis needs to play and the Orioles need to see what they have in the once promising slugger. Considering the monster year Davis has had at Triple-A Round Rock, it would behoove Buck Showalter to slide Davis right into the recently vacated hole at first base (discussion of the Derreck Lee trade to follow) and see where things stand come October.

Our preferred return for Koji would have been a more forward thinking package, sacrificing some proximity to the Majors for additional upside. One of Davis or Hunter and one higher upside talent, further away, would have been a boon. The same, this is hardly a package to be disappointed in. Hopefully the pro scouts pushing for Davis have identified what they would like fixed, and the Orioles end-up with two two 30-35 homerun run bats at the infield corners in 2012.

In a bit we'll post our suggested trade packages for Koji and provide some more info on the players we were hoping to see come back to the Birds.

Colby Rasmus and the Orioles

In a series of trades between three teams, Colby Rasmus wound up with the Blue Jays.  Unlike last year, the Jays used pieces that the Orioles have as well.  This differs from last year when the Jays acquired the allegedly troublesome Yunel Escobar for Alex Gonzalez.  The Orioles did not have a cheap "proven" veteran at shortstop to offer, so I had little to write about that.  However, the Jays used the following players to get Colby Rasmus and some most likely forgettable bullpen arms:

RHSP Edwin Jackson (acquired from ChiSox)
RHRP Octavio Dotel (can be bought out at end of season)
LHRP Mark Rzepczynski
OF Corey Patterson
3 players to be named or cash

It boils down to a good, but not great starting pitcher; a right handed relief pitcher having a great season; a good young relief pitcher, a lower rung outfielder who can play every position, and a bunch of organizational guys or money.  I'd say that here are the corresponding players from the Orioles organization:

RHSP Jeremy Guthrie (extra year of control)
RHRP Koji Uehara (extra year of control)
RHRP Jim Johnson
OF Felix Pie
3 relatively unimportant players or cash

I would put Guthrie ahead of Edwin Jackson here by a nudge.  Guthrie playing for a solid team should see his wins bump up, which means he should be a relative good deal this fall during arbitration and potentially a solid type B level free agent the following season.  Koji Uehara costs about the same as Octavio Dotel and is likely to be a type A free agent in a little over a year (though the compensation might not be as good as it will be at the end of this season, so that might be a push).  Jim Johnson is not a lefty, but is probably a better pitcher than Rzep.  The rest is about the same.  I think these are pretty similar packages.

Of course, we have to ask: would the Orioles benefit from having Colby Rasmus?

The Orioles' outfield next year would look like this:
Colby Rasmus LF 260/340/450 20hr
Adam Jones CF 280/330/470 20hr
Nick Markakis RF 300/350/420 15hr

That may not look like much, but those numbers are a vast improvement over this year.  Orioles' left fielders have a collective projected WAR of -2.0 while the above projected line would be about 3.5 WAR.  That would be a swing of about 5 wins for the outfield alone.  Guthrie alone is likely a loss of 3-4 WAR with Koji and Johnson account for about 2-3 WAR.  The Cardinals should make out in the short term.  The Orioles would like break even in 2013 and then take the lead in 2014, Rasmus' last controlled year.  It looks like a fair and useful deal to both sides.  The Cardinals get good performance cheaply over a couple years while the Orioles try to develop an all star potential.

With free agency, the loss of Guthrie and Koji/Johnson may not be as significant.  Similar production might be gained by signing either Edwin Jackson or Mark Buehrle as a starter and someone like Jon Rauch, Jason Frasor, or Octavio Dotel.  That will require an additional expenditure of around 5-8 MM more next year with the difference between the two sets of players. 

Oh well.  Maybe MacPhail has something up his sleeve.

Cup of jO's (July 26, 2011): Trading Koji Uehara

Game wrap
No game.

Travel day last night, so we skip the game comments for today. Here's the link for STATS LLC's preview of the opening game of the Baltimore/Toronto series.

Of interest...

All week we'll be using the morning "Cup of jO's" space to explore the trades we think make sense for the O's as the tradeline approaches. To recap, Jon and I have reached the conclusion that this team needs to refresh it's store of young, price controlled players. It isn't time for a "tear it down and build it up" approach yet, but there needs to be an infusion of cheaper talent or the team is simply going to run out of payroll space before they can push their overall talent level pass the low-80s win mark.

Today we look at Koji Uehara. Last week Jon gave a nice synopsis of the pros and cons of trading Koji, and the type of return he would need in order to pull the trigger. Koji's contract includes a reasonable option that will kick in at some point in August, giving the acquiring team another year of cheap performance. Jon takes a sensible approach to figuring out the variables in play in determining expected return:

He is certainly always a risk to be injured, but if the tradeoff is a marginal B level prospect now vs a marginal B level prospect next year or free agent compensation... it makes some sense to delay a deal until the next trade deadline. Added to this, there sure are a lot of right handed relievers on the market right now. You will need a team that has blinders on and focus solely on Koji or the team is going to take in something of little value.

With the exception of a truly elite talent, I'm strongly in favor of moving relief arms when you think they have hit the apex of their value. We are there with Koji. Accordingly, what we are targeting here is one B/B+ prospect and perhaps a throw-in C/C- prospect. But I'm not walking away if it's simply a 1-for-1 resulting in a solid future regular. Using Jon's suggested target teams, and a couple more I think are in play, these are the potential returns I'd be looking for:

Detroit Tigers
1. Chance Ruffin (rhp, Tigers - ML) Ruffin was just promoted and got roughed up in his debut. He's a possible future set-up man who we'll explore in more detail this evening.

2. Andy Oliver (lhp, Toledo - AAA) Oliver has logged some Major League time but has yet to stick upon promotion. He's a potential mid-rotation starter or lefty set-up man, depending on how his development rounds out.

3. Drew Smyly (lhp, Lakeland - A+) Smyly is a projectable lefty with a chance for three average or better offerings. Another potential mid-rotation arm.

Because the Tigers are also shopping for starters, we will be discussing a couple more players both in the context of a Jeremy Guthrie trade, and our "expanded trade" talk at the end of the week.

Suggested Package: Andy Oliver/Chance Ruffin and Drew Smyly

Texas Rangers
1. Michael Olt (3b, Myrtle Beach - A+) Olt has made strides over the past 12 months to both improve his defense and his contact ability at the plate. His calling card is big power, a big need for the O's, but his stock may be rising too quickly for Baltimore to land him in a Koji deal.

2. Jordan Akins (of, Rangers - Rookie) Akins is enjoying a nice year with the Rangers Arizona League Rookie squad. He's a raw but promising four tool player with an excellent chance to stay in center due to his athleticism, foot speed and arm strength. He'll require development, but would be a nice get as part of a 2-for-1.

3. Justin Grimm (rhp, Myrtle Beach - A+) Grimm was an overslot signing in the fifth round of last year's draft, showing mixed results at Myrtle Beach after cruising through the Sally League to start the year. He's being developed as a starter, and has the repertoire and size for it, but might ultimately fit best in a late inning role.

4. Andrew Clark (1b, Hickory - A) Clark, as noted by Jon, is old for the league but doing what he needs to to continue to move up the system. He's a second piece target, but one that should be attainable considering Texas has not yet invested much in him -- monetarily or developmentally.

5. Robbie Erlin (lhp, Frisco - AA) Erlin hasn't found a consistent grove at Frisco, but the stuff is still there. It could be a long shot, but if Baltimore can pry Erlin away he could give the O's solid mid-rotation production from the left side. Most importantly, he could be a much needed strike thrower for the Birds.

Jon mentioned Tanner Scheppers in his piece, but back issues have limited Schep to just 20 IP this year between AA and AAA, and it isn't a risk I'd be willing to take on at this point. There is a nice mix of talent here from which to piece together a deal. The availability of some higher profile arms (such as Heath Bell and Mike Adams) could leave Texas reticent to move their more valuable pieces.

Suggested Package: Robbie Erlin; Mike Olt; Jordan Akins and Justin Grimm

Philadelphia Phillies
1. Jonathan Singleton (1b/of, Clearwater - A+) This seems like a big stretch, but we'll pay it lip service since he was rumored to be available for relief help. Singleton had a breakout year last year before backsliding some here in 2011. He's a potential corner power bat that Baltimore would likely slide back to first base (he's currently in left due to the Ryan Howard contract).

2. Brody Colvin (rhp, Clearwater - A+) A Camden Depot favorite (and part of our "Shadow System"), Colvin missed time this year due to some back troubles not considered to be serious. He is a power arm that would pair up with Bobby Bundy to form a nice 1-2 at Bowie next year.

There is not much I see Philly parting with for Koji, but we will be revisiting the system later this week when we discuss our "expanded trade" talk.

Suggested Package: Jonathan Singleton or Brody Colvin

Pittsburgh Pirates
1. Starling Marte (of, Altoona - AA) Marte has held his own in Double-A, but continues to swing through too many pitches to make full use of his plus-plus foot speed. With McCutchen handling center field at the Major League level, Pittsburgh might be willing to part with the high upside, high risk Marte. His arm, reads and routes should make him an above-average defender in center, long term, and a useful fourth outfielder at minimum.

2. Zach Von Rosenberg (rhp, West Virginia - A) Von Rosenberg is currently teamed up with top Pirates prospect Jameson Taillon at West Virginia, and he may be off the table if Pittsburgh is committed to bringing these two arms along together. But if the Pirates are looking to try and pry open their window of competitiveness a year early, they may be willing to sacrifice one of their low-Minors arms in order to solidify the back-end of their pen for the next 1.5 years. Von Rosenberg is the obvious choice, with more tied to his projectability than "now" stuff, and more highly touted Stetson Allie and Nick Kingham following close behind at short-season State College.

3. Jeff Locke (rhp, Altoona - AA) Locke is a back-end arm as a starter, but could be useful in the pen in short order, due to a deceptive motion and running two-seamer. He's a toss-in piece, and with his development as a starter stuttering the Pirates shouldn't have an issue providing him with a fresh start somewhere else.

4. Brooks Pounders (rhp, West Virginia - A) Pounders is another promising young arm at West Virginia, pitching primarily out of the pen this year. He has potential as a mid-rotation to back-end arm down the line off the strength of his secondaries and workhorse build.

The Pirates aren't likely to mortgage the future in order to add a relief arm -- even one as impressive as Uehara this year. Still, there is a chance for Baltimore to take a stab at some upside talent here. Von Rosenberg is unlikely to be moved, but considering the depth of arms being grown in the Pirates system, maybe they bite.

Suggested Packages: Zach Von Rosenberg; Starling Marte and Brooks Pounders/Jeff Locke

We will touch on our suggested packages later tonight, with more in-depth scouting reports on our targeted acquisitions. Additionally, we'll discuss Uehara again later this weeke in the context of potential larger deals with St. Louis, Philadelphia, Detroit, Atlanta and Arizona, in our "expanded trade" posts.

Cup of jO's (July 25, 2011): Trade Deadline Agenda

Game Wrap
Angels 9, Orioles 3
Box Score / Play-by-Play / AP Recap

Baltimore has not won a series since taking two of three from Cincinnati during the final week of June, and have dropped nine of their last eleven series (splitting the most recent four game set with Cleveland, in addition to the series win against the Reds). Baltimore hits the road next, with three games in Toronto, four in New York and three in Kansas City. Today is a travel day for the Birds -- tomorrow Jake Arrieta matches-up against Brandon Marrow and the Jays.

Of Interest...
It's that time of year where fans of first place and last place teams alike can get excited. Contenders are looking to add that last piece or two to help with the final push to the playoffs. Those out of contention have a chance to move short terms assets in exchange for players more likely to be contributors over the long haul. Baltimore, of course, falls into the latter category and should be looking to move pieces of value in order to help build up competitive core over the next season or two. However, we are going to think outside of the box a little and suggest a couple of "buyer" moves that we hope would speed up the re-stock (can't bring myself to type "rebuild" again).

Here is our tentative schedule for the week -- each morning we will introduce a potential trade partner, and later that day we'll dig into the trade possibilities (including scouting reports on trade targets we've had an opportunity to take a more in depth look at).

MON - Framing our moves, what we hope to accomplish
TUE - Potential trades with the Reds
WED - Potential trades with the Cardinals
THU - Potential trades with the Twins and Tigers
FRI - Potential trades with the Padres and Rockies

2011 Trade Deadline: Koji Uehara

In the off season before the 2009 season, two older Japanese pitchers hit the market.  Both Kenshin Kawakami and Koji Uehara were seen as older (for both 2009 would be their age 34 season) pitchers who were elite talents in Japan, but could have issues in MLB.  The Orioles were in on both pitchers as they needed starting pitching.  They balked at Kenshin's asking price which was rumored to be for a 3 year, 30 MM contract (he wound up signing with the Braves for 3 years and 23 MM) and decided to give Koji a shot with a two year deal at five million per season.  Koji had the more impressive career, but of late his value had been depressed by solely relieving and getting hurt.  Starting turned out to be too much for Koji, but he has settled into a relief role nicely and has been much more accomplished than Kenshin who is now in the minors.

Koji, currently in the first year of an almost assured two year deal and being paid 4 MM each season, is the Orioles' best trading chip in the bullpen.  At 4MM, he is not cheap, but the cost is not exorbitant.  Second, Koji has an ERA under two with a 55/8 split over 44 innings.  Third, he does have closer experience and probably should have been closing for the Orioles this season.  Fourth, if free agent compensation exists in 2012, he will likely earn it as he currently projects as the most valuable relief pitcher in the AL according to the Elias rating projection.  

Case to Keep
The Orioles' bullpen is rather thin.  Kevin Gregg is an average pitcher who gets saves.  He just is not someone you should trust in a save situation.  Jim Johnson, supposedly, is being made into a starting pitcher.  After that, you have nothing of note.  Koji is relatively cheap for a "proven" reliever, signed for another year, and will likely be just as valuable next year if not more so.  He is certainly always a risk to be injured, but if the tradeoff is a marginal B level prospect now vs a marginal B level prospect next year or free agent compensation . . . it makes some sense to delay a deal until the next trade deadline.  Added to this, there sure are a lot of right handed relievers on the market right now.  You will need a team that has blinders on and focus solely on Koji or the team is going to take in something of little value.

Case to Trade
What does one of the worst teams in baseball need with an elite setup man?  Koji currently is that and he is not making the Orioles an exceptionally better team.  Added to this, he has faced a significant injury in each of the past two years, but has been healthy this season.  Mind you that during his entire tenure with the Orioles, he has been an excellent pitcher.  He has a track record and other teams have to recognize that.  With the availability of several right handed relievers, the Orioles may not get a great deal for Koji . . . but I do not think we would see something too far off from what the team received for George Sherrill a couple years ago.  My guess is a low B level prospect and a somewhat low ceiling C level prospect.  Sherrill netted the team a high B level prospect and a low ceiling C level prospect.

Possible Trade Partners and Targets
The following teams were chosen because they are within five games of the playoffs and have received bottom third production from their bullpen.

AL

Detroit Tigers
The Tigers' pitching is a bit of a mess.  They are basically Verlander, Valverde, Albequerque, and Furbush.  Nothing else.  They have been rumored to be heavy into any available starting pitcher, but could also use more depth in the bullpen.  My guess is that you could receive Chance Ruffin who would be the low B pitcher.  He is an advanced relief arm that should replace Koji in the pen next year.  He is unlikely to be as good as Koji, but the team would have six cost controlled years.  The Tigers' system is full of C level guys, so you could simply take your pick.  Adam Wilk might be reasonable.

Texas Rangers
The bullpen consists of a strong closer (Neftali Feliz), a strong left handed setup man (Darren Oliver), and average quality depth.  The team lacks that shutdown 7th or 8th inning guy that Koji could be for them.  I think the Rangers are also smart enough to understand that Koji's performance is relatively cheap, you get a second year, and he is likely to give free agent compensation in return.  I think with big eyes you ask for Tanner Scheppers or Mike Olt.  Scheppers will be a strong arm coming out of the pen and Olt is a fine hitter who should be ready when Mark Reynolds departs.  Both of those will be hard gets.  I imagine Scheppers would be easier to pry.  Falling back on those, you could target a softer target such as Chris Davis or Andrew Clark.  Davis is a masher who kills AAA pitching and also kills MLB pitching if he is able to hit it.  Andrew Clark was a late round pick who is old for his leagues, but is showing good power and discipline.  Clark should be someone the Rangers would be fine being without and may have more usefulness to the Orioles than Davis.

NL
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies need some more depth in that pen from the right side and Koji would be a solid fit for them.  The team is often thought of as being in it to win it at all times, but Koji's 4MM price tag might be too much.  For him to go there, the team would have to pony up the rest of this year's tab.  That would be for a shade over a million.  In return, they could ask for 1B Jonathan Singleton who is suffering some growing pains in HiA ball this year.  They could also ask for Jared Cosart who is a pitcher with high potential, but some questions as to his long term viability as a starter.  As arms go though, someone like Julio Rodriguez might be more realistic.

Conclusion
The only way I deal Koji is if the team pulls back someone like Jonathan Singleton, Jared Cosart, or Mike Olt.  I would need a high ceiling low minors prospect.  Trading Koji away for depth makes no sense to me.  He fulfills a role in the pen and the team could wait until the situation improves to spin him off to someone who values him more.  The worst case scenario is that Koji turns into a prospect or two through whatever the revised free agent compensation system winds up being. 

Cup of jO's: 2011 Trade Deadline and J.J. Hardy (PM Post)

Well...a few hours changes the world sometimes.  The Orioles have agreed in principle for a three year extension worth in the neighborhood of 22 MM with a limited no trade clause.  I find it surprising that he signed for that value.  I think he is underpaid given the market and what would have been possible for him.  This is definitely not a Brian Roberts-like deal which was overmarket in per year salary and overmarket in length.  Hardy's deal appears to me to be undermarket in salary and on par with length.

As with Roberts' deal, Hardy's deal increases the need to take advantage of his presence on the team.  Useful complementary pieces will need to be acquired to make any sense of this signing.  Hardy making a 70 win team into a 73 win team means little and likely is counterproductive.  Him being part of a larger effort to improve the team would make sense.  However, I think the only way this team becomes competitive is with about 30-40 MM extra in signings as the team does not have overwhelming sources of young talent.

What I was going to write about was the Reds and Yonder Alonso as well as the Giants and a long odds dream about Brandon Belt.  That conversation is now worth less in having.  As such, I will go on record being for trading J.J. Hardy for someone like Alonso and being quite mildly against an extension for J.J. Hardy.

I just have doubts when it comes to devoting resources in an oft-injured older shortstop who does not display amazing amounts of athleticism and is having a career year at the plate while the team is struggling to be within 10 games of five hundred ball.  I do not believe it is an efficient use of funds.  I hope I am wrong.

Cup of jO's: 2011 Trade Deadline and J.J. Hardy (AM Post)

We will be running through all of the possible ticket items that the Orioles have to give away and receive something useful in return.  The first for us to highlight, before he is signed to an extension, is J.J. Hardy.

J.J. Hardy
.356 wOBA, 275/333/490, 1.8 fWAR

Case to Keep
Ever since Miguel Tejada began rapidly aging, shortstop has been a black hole of offense for the Orioles.  Internal options never emerged, no one ever really trades a useful shortstop prospect, and free agency rarely yields good talent at that position.  Shortstops are hoarded and locked up by their teams.  However, the Twins were in a cash crunch and had doubts about J.J. Hardy.  He provided excellent defense, but is the epitome of "injury-prone" and showed an anemic bat two years running.  The Orioles jumped on Hardy and merely had to pay his salary (5.85 MM) and give up two somewhat inconsequential players (Jim Hoey with his blazing straight fastball and Aubrey Huff acquisition Brett Jacobson).

This year the Orioles are benefiting from Hardy's best offensive season of his career by rate.  The only mark on him so far has been that he has missed roughly 25 games to injury.  That is better attendance than his previous two years.  His defense has also shined and is just as good as our all glove shortstop Cesar Izturis.  The simple truth is that shortstop has been a great year for this team.  Even with Andino filling in for Hardy on several occasions, the Orioles ranked as the 10th most productive team at shortstop.  Last year, the team was 27th.  Of all of the troubles the Orioles have faced this season, shortstop has not been one of them and at 28, Hardy certainly has several years left in him.

Case to Trade
There are three major reasons to trade Hardy: he is injury-prone, he is having a career year, and you probably can trade him for useful prospects.

Injury prone.  In 2009, he barely played 100 games.  The same thing was true in 2010.  He, again, this year missed a quarter of the first half with an injury.  While it is true that none of these injuries were career threatening, the possibility lies that a future injury certainly could be career threatening.  This is probably more of a concern for a shortstop because even little dings here and there can turn into decreased ability to play third base effectively.  Injuries during his 2009 and 2010 campaigns likely had a lot to do with his issues at the plate.  Hardy's power evaporated those two years and injuries probably have some bearing on that.  If the three year extension does go through, I think it will be safe to say that Hardy will likely play 3B in 2014 with Manny Machado at shortstop.  If Machado rushes up for 2013, Hardy might make the switch earlier.  At 28, Hardy is at the point where players tend to slow down.

Career Year.  I am surprised by the 21-25 MM numbers being thrown about because J.J. Hardy is having a career year.  That is most assuredly a discount, if Hardy hits the open market...he will receive three or four years at 10+ MM.  The only way 21-25 MM makes sense to me would be if there are sizable incentives in there and a concrete no trade clause that could later turn into more money for him.  The shortstop market is incredibly thin in the upcoming year and you have several big money teams (e.g. San Francisco Giants) who will be looking to resolve issues they have at this position.  Jose Reyes might be the best option for shortstop this off season, but after Hardy there is nothing left at the position.  My guess for his value if he hit the market would be 3/36 or 4/44.  Teams close to the playoffs and in need of help will and should be willing to put up with the premium that is a career season and be tolerant of his injury issues.  The Orioles with holes a plenty, have little use for a shortstop going into his thirties with a dicey injury history.

Trade return.  Several teams are also struggling in season for an answer at shortstop.  This translates into teams being willing to give up prospects who are blocked within the team's playoff window or players in the low minors.  Trading Hardy and then overpaying him by several million may actually be cheaper than signing Hardy and then signing a free agent at a position.  The easiest scenario here would be the Reds where the Orioles could deal him for Yonder Alonso (1B) and then resign Hardy at 13-15MM a year for three years.  That would be cheaper and likely more useful than resigning Hardy and then signing Prince Fielder to a 150-200MM contract.  The point is that this team, the Orioles, is not a playoff team in the near term.  It is difficult to see how this organization can field a competitive squad in the next three years.  As such, a Hardy extension makes as much sense as Brian Roberts extension did.  Just because you are left with a hole does not mean you should spend whatever it takes to fill it because your yard may be full of holes.

Possible Trade Partners and Targets

The following teams are those who are having troubles with production from their shortstop position.  Most of these teams are producing wOBAs around .305 or less and the team is within striking distance of the divisional pennant.

AL

Tampa Bay Rays
To be kind, shortstop is killing the Rays.  They are getting decent defense there, but Reid Brignac and Elliot Johnson are providing next to nothing at the plate.  The Rays could certainly use a short term fix and would make good use of any compensation picks Hardy would provide.  However, the Rays never just look at the current season and would be unlikely to drop a major piece to the Orioles, so nothing like Desmond Jennings.  What the team could expect would be a couple low B prospects or a low B and a soon to be expensive starting pitcher.  In the former scenario, I am thinking a tandem to target would be Nick Barnese (RHP) and Braulio Lara (LHP).  In the Rays' system those guys are probably in the 10-15 tange for their prospects.  In ours, they would be in the 3-7 range.  That said, only Barnese would be consequential for next season.  Something that might be more relevant for the near term would be pairing Barnese up with Jeff Niemann (RHP).  The Rays probably do not want him much long with the arms they have pushing up from AAA and with his arbitration figures coming in.  He is also their back end rotation arm.  He would be something similar for the Orioles.  Either trade scenario probably is not ideal for the Orioles.

NL

Atlanta Braves
Money will be tight for the Braves, but Alex Gonzalez is providing nothing at the plate for them.  Gonzalez has about 1.2 MM left on his deal this year.  I could see the Braves asking the Orioles to take Gonzalez back in the deal and maybe even through in a million or two with Hardy.  Similar to the Rays, I do not see anything of immediate need available in the Braves' system.  My target here would be Arodys Vizcaino (RHP).  He has a great arm, but his durability has been questioned.  As such, you will see him ranked anywhere from top 15 to top 50 when the off season prospect rankings emerge.  Getting an arm like that means you threw money in there and a second piece is likely to be a bit fringe because no one likes giving up that kind of arm.  A player who fits that bill would be someone like Todd Cunningham (CF).  He covers the plate well with good discipline and plays good defense.  His power though is a bit unimpressive.  He is likely to be a 4th outfielder.  That said, Vizcaino would be a huge piece to have in the Orioles system and I think the Braves would be more willing to give value than the Rays.

Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers made a big splash acquiring KRod.  However, they still have an issue at shortstop.  Ex-Brewer Hardy may not be an option the team wants as there may be bad blood between the two.  The Brewers notoriously dropped Hardy into the minors to add a year service time onto his contract preventing him from reaching free agency in 2011, which is why Hardy is an Oriole right now.  The Brewers system is also void of much talent after the Grienke trade this past off season.  I would not bother entering talks with them.  If I had to deal with them, I'd settle for nothing less than three of their top four or five arms...something like Heckathorn, Scarpetta, and Thornburg...it might be better just to take the draft picks for Hardy.

Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates do not have much money to throw around and I could see the Orioles being able to leverage that by offering to pay for Hardy's deal.  The two draft picks for Hardy would also look good to the Pirates who would not have to worry about him taking arbitration.  With that in mind, I would ask for two potentially big pieces: Starling Marte (CF), Rudy Owens (LHP), and Colton Cain (LHP).  Marte could spell Adam Jones in centerfield in a couple years allowing Jones to shift to a more natural left field or for the Orioles to deal him.  Owens looks like a promising lefty who has struggled this past year in AAA.  At the very least, he is more valuable fodder than Troy Patton or Jim Johnson in the rotation.  Colton Cain would be the Chris Tillman circa Erik Bedard deal.  Cain is young with a ton of projection, but I think he could be a top 50 guy in a year.  Again, this is another forward thinking deal.  Not many opportunities available for the here and now.

In the second post today, I will focus on two more likely destinations: the Cincinatti Reds and the San Francisco Giants.  I count these as more likely because (1) their shortstops are awful and (2) they have pieces the Orioles could use right now.

Cup of jO's (July 6, 2011): Introducing Yonder Alonso and Zack Cozart

Game Summary
Orioles 2, Rangers 4
Box Score / Play-by-Play / AP Recap

The Birds smacked eleven hits off of Rangers's starter Matt Harrison in just six innings but were only able to plate two runs as the O's fell again to the Rangers. In his first start for the O's, Mitch Atkins went six strong, allowing eight hits and no walks while striking out four. J.J. Hardy and All-Star selection Matt Wieters each hit solo shots, accounting for the only two runs of the game for Baltimore. Staff ace Jeremy Guthrie tries to help Baltimore avoid the sweep today -- you can read the STATS LLC preview here.

Of interest...
Of interest to me this morning is a pair of trade targets to add to our list of potential trade deadline targets. Yonder Alonso and Zack Cozart are members of the Reds's AAA affiliate, the Louisville Bats. Each were selected to the International League All-Star team, a brief player summary from the team's official blog:

OF Yonder Alonso will be appearing in his first career Triple-A All-Star Game. This will be his second career All-Star selection in his minor league career. The other was in 2009 as a member of the Sarasota Reds when he was selected to the Florida State League All-Star Game. In 2011, Alonso has a .299avg with 9hr and 42rbi. His .299 batting average is good for fourth best on the team with a minimum of 200 at-bats.

SS Zack Cozart has been selected to his third career minor league All-Star Game and it will be the first time he has played in the annual IL – PCL showdown. He was a 2009 Southern League All-Star while with Carolina and a 2008 Midwest League All-Star while a member of the Dayton Dragons. In 2011, Cozart has a .321 avg. with 7hr and 30rbi. He also is second on the team and third in the International League with 26 doubles.

Both Alonso and Cozart fill potential holes for Baltimore -- long term shortstop and long term first baseman -- and Alonso is clearly blocked at first by slugger Joey Votto. As with Blanks, we will go more in depth with Alonso and Cozart in our full scouting report. For now, here are links to their respective stat pages:

Yonder Alonso: Fangraphs Baseball-reference
Zack Cozart: Fangraphs Baseball-reference

Cup of jO's (July 5, 2011): Introducing Kyle Blanks

Game Summary
Box Score / Play-by-Play / AP Recap

It was a typical evening for the 2011 Orioles. The offense sputtered through nine innings, notching just six hits -- two of them homeruns off the bat of Mark Reynolds, who now sits at 20 on the year. Reynolds's homeruns are becoming almost a nightly occurrence, but unfortunately so too are his errors. He booted a grounder to earn an E yesterday -- also his 20th on the year. Chris Jakubauskas and Alfredo Simon were slapped around the Ballpark at Arlington to the tune of 12 R, 11 ER, 16 H and just 2 SO over 6.1 IP. The battered Birds will send Mitch Atkins to the mound tonight -- click here for the STATS LLC preview of his match-up against Matt Harrison and the Rangers.

Of interest...
Of interest to me this morning is our first proposed trade target for this July's trade deadline -- San Diego 1b/of Kyle Blanks. We will provide a full scouting report on Blanks, but for now I simply want to introduce you to a talent I believe could fill Baltimore's first base hole for the foreseeable future. Blanks missed a chunk of 2010 and the start of 2011 recovering from Tommy John surgery. While he was out, the Padres traded their All-Star first baseman, Adrian Gonzalez, to Boston this past winter in exchange for a package that included Anthony Rizzo -- a highly regarded first base prospect. Rizzo has quickly risen through the Minors and currently finds himself at first for the Padres, potentially making Blanks available.

While Blanks has logged some time in the outfield corners while blocked by Gonzalez, he is a plodder and not well suited to the spacious outfield of Petco. It seems unlikely the Padres would turn around and move one of the primary pieces in the AGon deal, which means Blanks should be available for the right price. Is he worth pursuing?

This past week the Padre slugger earned Pacific Coast League (AAA) player of the week honors, after posting a seven day triple slash line of .520/.586/1.240, going 13-for-25. He profiles as a corner bat with above average hit and power tools, and a ceiling somewhere around a .390 wOBA, 30-35 homerun pop and an ability to draw 65-75 walks a year. We'll dig into Banks in more detail with our scouting report -- for now, we just wanted to introduce you to him. Here are his relevant stat pages: Fangraphs | Baseball-reference

Scouting the Trade Deadline: Introducing O's as Sellers

It would be fun to entertain trade targets for a playoff push, or even to be close enough to Wild Card contention that there is a question as to whether the O's should push all in or wait things out a week or two before making a decision. Sadly, as with a vast majority of the past 14 months of July, Baltimore is clearly in "look to the future" mode (or should be). There is some interesting discussion to be had, however, as to whether "the future" means 2012 or more the Machado/Bundy years. For at least one more season, I remain convinced that Baltimore has time to build around this core for a solid three year push and a chance to build some sustained success if things break right. I also remain convinced that in order for Baltimore to make use of this young core they need dramatic action and they need it now.

The 2012 off-season may be the last real chance to add needed talent to make a push for contention in the brutal AL East. The realist in me looks at the holes in the Baltimore 25-man roster and finds it difficult to imagine a scenario wherein Baltimore fills those holes adequately in a single off-season. That means, if I'm sitting in the Warehouse, my focus in July is to find some long term pieces at the trade deadline. We'll spend the next four weeks batting around ideas and providing scouting reports on some potential trade targets for the Birds. Hopefully Jon will chime in with some scouting and statistical analysis, as well, and in the end we will wind-up with some interesting discussion at the least.

As a disclaimer, I realize that "proposing trades" is a cliche sports message board pastime, often plagued with inaccurate assessments of other teams' needs and inflation of the value of the home team's assets. We will do our best to remain as objective and reasonable as possible. That said, if you are a fan of one of the other 29 teams that happens to find your way to The Depot and you see us making flawed arguments that relate to your team, please call us on it.

So, as an intro piece let's take this space to identify the most useful assets for Baltimore to peddle on the trade market:

Big Chips
Adam Jones, of, Orioles

2nd Tier Primary Pieces
J.J. Hardy, ss, Orioles
Jeremy Guthrie, rhp, Orioles

Secondary Pieces or 3rd Tier Primary Pieces
Kevin Gregg, rhp, Orioles
Koji Uehara, rhp, Orioles

Throw-ins or Salary Dumps
Vlad Guerrero, dh, Orioles
Derrek Lee, 1b, Orioles

It may shock some fans to see Adam Jones on our shop list, but he is the one premium chip available that will start to get expensive in the near future. He has the national recognition and enough of a track record to make this year's step forward an opportunity to bring back a large haul. It could be that he is not quite established enough to entice an org to part with a monster package, but one potential elite talent and two more strong pieces are not out of the question. Baltimore will otherwise look to extend Jones, and as impressive as he has been at the plate I have to question whether it makes sense for an organization like Baltimore to invest heavily in a corner outfielder playing center field. If you can get a team to pay an All-Star center fielder's price, I think you have to take it. That also may be the quickest way for Baltimore to fill multiple holes with long term solutions.

Hardy and Guthrie are not top tier trade pieces, but each could bring back a strong B/B+ prospect and a useful secondary piece. Hardy is the more valuable of the two right now due to positional scarcity and 2011 performance, though he is only a three month rental. Guthrie gives a National League team a possible #2 starter for a reasonable price over the next 1.5 seasons.

Gregg and Uehara each have closing experience and could bring back something around the George Sherrill package in 2009 -- that is, one solid B prospect and a throw in. In Gregg's case it would also free Baltimore of an unnecessary portion of payroll devoted to the bullpen.

Both Guerrero and Lee could be pieces of interest to teams looking for a bat off the bench during the playoff push. Unfortunately, their sub-par performance in 2011 means Baltimore would probably have to choose between salary relief or paying a chunk of their due cost in exchange for an upgrade to a B-/C+ type prospect.

For the time being I have excluded some of the Minor League pieces that could be added in a larger deal. I think it is more realistic that Baltimore would get creative with these pieces at the conclusion of the season when looking to add a big piece in the off-season. Let me know who we missed and what you'd want to get back for the trade pieces listed above.