Cup of jO's (December 2, 2011): O's and Yoenis Cespedes

Taking a break from the Orioles Top 25 Prospect list, this morning I wanted to give a quick write-up on Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes -- the top international free agent currently on the market (technically, he will not hit the market until his residency is officially established in the Dominican Republic). Baltimore was recently linked to Cespedes by Roch Kubatko at MASN, who wrote on Wednesday that the O's were "interested in Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes and will watch him work out in the Dominican Republic."

While Cespedes has been closely followed by international evaluators for the last five years, average baseball fans were made aware of his presence this November when his "publicity video" went viral on YouTube (a copy of the video available here), leading to drums of e-ink being spilled by sportswriters around the net. He has been a fixture on the Cuban National Team and was rated by Baseball America as the sixth best prospect at the 2009 World Baseball Classic.

Putting aside the likelihood of Cespedes electing to sign with Baltimore, is he a target Baltimore should consider? To answer that question as best we can we must look at two items: 1) his skillset and projection, and 2) his likely price.

Scouting Snippet

I haven't seen enough of Cespedes to stand firmly behind a full evaluation -- really my exposure has been limited to video feeds and television broadcasts from international tournaments. The following is my take based on about six or seven in-game views, so assign the requisite level of weight to these thoughts. Also, be sure to crosscheck this report with whatever you can find at BaseballAmerica.com, who routinely leads the pack in coverage of international talents.

Physical Description:
Listed 5-foot-10, 200-pounds. Thick, strong, athletic build. Broad chest and wide, strong hips and trunk. Agility and explosiveness to excess. Moves very well underway; can drag out of the box.

Hitting:
Cespedes's calling card is power and he has lots and lots of it. Because of his physical strength, particularly his monster core, he does not need much load or seperation to give his barrel time to accelerate. With a basic, fairly compact swing he is able to produce enough torque to drive the ball out from pole-to-pole. He doesn't need to sell out for homeruns, but his approach in the box can noticeably falter when he gets too focused on trying to force hard contact. This isn't evident in a loss of balance, head pull, or leak, but you will see some backside collapse at times and, more often, he'll extend early and come around the ball, creating holes and some lag in the barrel. There is significant bat wrap, but he seems to overcome it with his bat speed. Raw power grades at a 65, though his in-game realization could be closer to 55 against advanced MLB arms. Hitting could be anywhere from a 40 to a 55 depending on how capable he proves at making adjustments at the Major League level.

Fielding:
Cespedes has more than enough footspeed to cover gap-to-gap in center, and shows a very good drop-step back on balls. He isn't a natural fielder, but shows comfort in the outfield. He can try to do too much at times, and could possibly benefit from pro instruction as to how to play more within his tools -- not getting overly aggressive with his throws and setting up his routes a little better. His arm is an easy 60, though his accuracy can come and go due to his set-up and arm action. I would have no issue believing his glove can grade as a 60 if told so by someone who has spent more time sitting on him, but my limited views lead me to give a more conservative 50 grade.

Summary:
Cespedes is a difficult assignment for evaluators. His physical tools are phenominal, and he has a track record of performing against high level competition (albeit inconsistent and varying talent levels from player to player) both in Cuba and through international tournaments. Still, there is a large degree of uncertainty as to how a player in his situation ultimately reacts to the change in culture, lifestyle, on-field pressure and media scrutiny when making the adjustment from life in Cuba to life as a professional baseball player in the United States.

The safest course of action is likely providing him the opportunity to spend at least half of a season at Triple-A, allowing him to adjust to the pro game outside of the national broadcasts and nightly highlight wraps that accompany MLB games. With limited looks, it is very difficult to wager a guess as to the likelihood that Cespedes is suited to make the transition to the Majors with his production intact. For purposes of this exercise, we'll slap a consertive grade report as follows:

Hit: 45
Power: 55/60
Speed: 60
Arm: 60
Fielding: 45/50
Feel: 45
OFP: 52-56

*Click here for primer on Grades

What we have, for purposes of this exercise, is a potential first division starting center fielder, with some risk that he will not make enough contact for his power to fully emerge at the highest level.

Price Tag

Aroldis Chapman currently holds the record for initial contract given to a Cuban defector, with the Reds handing him a deal $30.25 million over six years. Cespedes figures to easily eclipse that contract, and is rumored to be looking for more than $60 million over six years. At 26-years old, he is entering his physical prime, with his signing Major League team getting his best years for the term of their investment. Significant interest from some potentially big spending clubs (including the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Phillies and Nationals) would seem to all but ensure a big pay day for the standout Cuban outfielder -- for purposes of this exercise we will use a conservative estimate of $60 million over six years. Keep in mind that if Cespedes ends-up at Triple-A for three months, you are eating away part of the value of that first year -- in effect driving the annual price up to around $11 million a year.

Conclussion

Our "scouty" report projects Cespedes to a solid to above-average first division starter, and his upside is that of a five-tooled multiple all-star talent. A 6/60 deal for that type of player would seem to be a steal, particularly for a player entering his best four or five years of production and physicality. The sixty-million dollar question, however, is one of probability.

While evaluators can find comfort in Cespedes's successful track record in Cuba and on the international scene, it is a tall order to ask that evaluator to stake $60 million dollars, maybe more, on that production translating against the best competition in the world. Add to that an inconsistent track record for Cuban defectors and the larger issue of cultural adjustments and the ability to perform under the weight of the media scrutiny and expectations that accompany a record-setting contract, and the evaluator's task of filing a suggested price starts to more closely resemble a game of darts (skilled darts, but darts nonetheless).

Ultimately, for Baltimore, the likelihood is that so long as the big spenders remain interested the price tag will be problematic when considering the risk you are taking on. Additionally, the Orioles may be looking at a situation where they are forced to overpay the market in order to convince Cespedes to turn down a better competitive and higher profile situation in New York, or perhaps a more Cubano-centric situation in a city like Miami.

Cespedes is worth a long look from Baltimore, and the return on investment has a chance to be the type of "hit" that the Orioles will need to have if the organization hopes to turn things around any time soon. Unfortunately, the potential of having $10 million or so tied-up in a fringe-average regular (if things don't break right for Cespedes in his transition), in addition to the combined approximately $47.5 million owed to Roberts and Markakis over the next two seasons, and escalating prices for Baltimore's arbitration-eligible youngsters, could severely limit spending in any other areas, including extending some of the younger Birds.

Were Baltimore a more complete team at the Major League level, or a more wealthy team in terms of prospects in their system, this may be a risk worth taking. But the Birds need to focus inward on systemic changes before a high risk/high reward investment like Cespedes makes sense.

Cup of jOe's: Value of Drafting Young High Schoolers

I tweeted about this the other day, but figured that these two articles published by Rany Jazayerli on Baseball Prospectus need to be highlighted. 

Starting Them Young Part I
Starting Them Young Part II

Now, he calls these pair of papers the "most significant finding of his career."  Well, this is not DIPS.  This is not exactly earth shattering and I imagine that quite a few front offices have had this information for years with a large number of scouts knowing this since the 1800s.  However, it is significant in terms of what was likely known ten years ago and it is significant in that this information is now public.  What makes it significant is that we now have a quantitative way of expressing the advantage behind drafting younger high school players.  It is also significant because it shows that MLB has not really figured it out as of 2003 otherwise we would not see such a great difference between ages.

Wait, a second...you might say...what about Billy Rowell? he was quite young when drafted.

Well, it certainly is not a fool proof system.  No one is saying that drafting a young player automatically means you are making a greater selecting.  It means that you have a greater probability of getting more value out of high schoolers drafted at a certain slot if they are younger. 

It also brings up another point, which is why use mean instead of median?  Using mean probably makes more sense because you tend to draft for stars instead of average players.  However, median makes sense if you are trying to build depth.  It may also make sense within small samples because massive outliers can overwhelm a mean.  I think this is still up for discussion, but it certainly is a discussion not many are having.  Or, it was decided a long time ago and I have been unaware.

Another article you should also read is this one by Scott McKinney.  It is a comprehensive break down of minor league prospects.

Cup of jO's (August 4, 2011): Callis on Bundy/Bauer deals

Game Summary
Orioles 2, Royals 6
Box Score / Play-by-Play / AP Recap

Baltimore's quest for its first AL series win in almost two months will last at least one more night, as Jeremy Guthrie and the Birds fell to Kansas City 6-2. In what has become a frighteningly routine occurrence when Guthrie takes the hill, the Baltimore bats were nowhere to be seen, with just three runners reaching base after the third inning (two by hit and one by strikeout). Baltimore will look to Zach Britton to break his streak of "meh" starts tonight; he's opposite Jeff Francis. STATS LLC preview here.

Of interest....
Trevor Bauer became the first top 10 pick in the 2011 draft to ink a deal when he agreed to a Major League contract with a $4.45 million bonus and a structure that could allow him to earn over $7 million through its duration. Bauer, selected one pick before Orioles top pick Dylan Bundy, was this year's recipient of USA Baseball's Golden Spikes Award, as well as Baseball America's Collegiate Player of the Year Award. At first glance, it would seem that Orioles fans should be pleased that an advanced college arm selected in front of Bundy received such a "reasonable" package. After all, it would follow that a lower pick, with a riskier developmental profile, would likely be looking at a slightly lesser deal, right? Wrong.

As we have pointed out a number of times here at the Depot, bonus comps are rarely used among draft picks, and are almost never used among draft picks from different cross-sections (college vs. high school, pitcher vs. position player, two-sport vs. one-sport, etc.). Baseball America's Jim Callis sums up the issue well in a discussion with MASN's Steve Melewski:

"Bauer is a college pitcher but a high school guy (like Bundy) has got more leverage...I don't think it's a great comp (comparing Bauer and Bundy), even though they were picked back to back...I am sure the Orioles would love to tell Dylan Bundy's representation, 'Hey, Bauer got $4.45 (million) guaranteed, so Dylan has to come in under that.' But I don't think the Orioles would try to make that argument and I think B.B.I. Sports Group (Bundy's representatives) would laugh at them if they did...MLB likes to act like these deals impact everybody else and they really don't. As agents tell me, this isn't arbitration like the comps there; it doesn't work that way."

In reality, these bonuses are generally not very difficult to figure out. As someone with some experience in the process, I have found that generally history wins out and history tells us 1) bonuses for a player type are unlikely to improve be more than 40-50%, and only by that much in the rarest of circumstances, and 2) Andy MacPhail and the Orioles are unlikely to negotiate a record breaking deal.

Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg were back-to-back "generational" players who received total packages topping anything previously handed out. Those record breaking deals topped their closest comp (for Strasburg, college arm David Price; for Harper, high school position player Donavan Tate) by around 50%. Using that as a general guide, we set Bundy's "max" deal at around $10 million, or right around 50% more that high school arms Josh Beckett and Rick Porcello received. In reality, Bundy is not a "generational" talent -- that is, he doesn't stand easily above his contemporaries, as far as scouting profiles are concerned. Accordingly, we put his expected bonus close to either what Porcello earned: around $3.5 million guaranteed and a Major League deal worth upwards of $7 million, or what Jameson Taillon earned as the top high school arm in last year's draft: $6.5 million in bonus money and a Minor League deal.

Inflation might bring those numbers up some -- let's bump the window to $7.0 to 8.0 million. Baltimore's sensitivity to slot suggestions, or more accurately not outdistancing early slot projections by to wide a margin, could cause this number to fall some. Additionally, the Orioles have proven to be shrewd negotiators willing to draw a line in the sand when they have determined that a player is incentivized to sign and they have made what they consider to be a fair offer.

Historically, the largest Major League deal Baltimore has given to a high school pitcher is Adam Loewen's 2002 Major League deal that included about $3.5 million in bonus and another $800 thousand in guaranteed salary. Baltimore's most recent 1st Round high school arm Matt Hobgood received $2.4 million and a Minor League deal as the fifth overall selection in 2009. It's safe to say that any Major League deal signed by Bundy will eclipse $800 thousand in salary given to Loewen and likely that the bonus will improve -- if only nominally -- over the $3.5 million offered to Loewen.

While Bundy has leverage as high schooler with the option of going to college and re-entering the draft, that leverage is limited due to: 1) the risk associated with playing as an amateur for three more seasons before being able to declare again (he is a Texas commit and four-year college players must wait until their junior year, or the year in which they are 21 within 45 days of the draft), 2) the uncertainty as to how the new Collective Bargaining Agreement might change the draft landscape (including instituting slot bonuses for 1st Rounders), and 3) the fact that he has very little room to improve as a top 5 talent in 2011.

Risk 1 can be avoided by retracting his commitment to Texas and enrolling in a junior college, as junior college players are eligible for the draft each year, regardless of age or standing. Risk 2 has not come into play with the negotiated deals to which I have been privy this summer, though the risk is much larger for a top 5 pick looking at seven figures than it is to a 3rd or 4th Rounder receiving mid-six figures and about 5% over slot recommendation. The final risk is the largest, and ultimately negates any perceived leverage Bundy has.

While it's true that Bundy could go to a junior college and re-enter next year as a favorite to go 1st overall, that choice carries with it risk of injury, change in draft slot structure and the risk of under-performance. The latter is the hardest to drum home to players and their families, as most top talents have difficulty envisioning struggling.

So where do we end up? The lower threshold for bonus/ML deal package is probably around $6.5 million -- what Jameson Taillon received as the top pick last year. The upper threshold is probably around $8 million -- about a 14% improvement on the total ML package received by Porcello. When discussing this signing with two National League evaluators, the consensus was that Bundy would receive a ML deal due to his advanced profile, with a bonus likely in the $3.5-4 million range and salary structure bringing the total haul to $7 million. Whether Baltimore keeps the number slightly under that or Bundy pushes the number upwards of $8 million will depend on a myriad of factors, the most important of which is probably as simple as who blinks first on the eve of August 15th.

Cup of jO's (August 3, 2011): Britt answers on Pie's antics

Game Summary
Box Score / Play-by-Play / AP Recap

Alfredo Simon shut down the Royals over seven innings, walking just one run on four hits and a walk. Tommy Hunter, acquired in the Koji Uehara deal, made his first appearance with the club, allowing two singles and a run. Chris Davis hit his first homerun as an Oriole, allowing an Everrett Teaford fastball to travel deep on the outer half before muscling it out to the opposite field. It was a good night all around for the Birds, who take a step towards winning their first AL series since the first week of June. Jeremy Guthrie takes the mound tonight opposite former 1st Rounder Luke Hochevar; you can check out the STATS LLC game preview here.

Of interest....
Last week Jon touched on Felix Pie's peculiar habit of chasing down batting helmets tossed during walk off celebrations. Britt Ghiroli of MLB.com asked Felix about this ritual and reported her findings at Britt's Bird Watch:

“It’s a touchdown,” Pie said of grabbing the helmet in celebratory glee. “It’s like we scored a touchdown.”

Makes perfect sense to me. Hopefully we'll get a chance to see a few more touchdown celebrations in 2011. When we do, make sure to keep your eye on #18.

Cup of jO's (August 1, 2011): Derrek Lee dump

Game Summary
Orioles 2, Yankees 4
Box Score / Play-by-Play / AP Recap

Baltimore dropped the final game of the series to the Bombers and finish the AL East portion of their road trip with a 2-5 record against Toronto and New York. The Birds round out July without winning a single series and have now gone almost two months since winning a series against an AL opponent. They were outscored 33-10 in the Bronx.

Next up is Kansas City -- Alfredo Simon will toe the rubber opposite former Oriole Bruce Chen on Tuesday night in the opening game of a three-game set.

Of interest...
In addition to trading stopper Koji Uehara this past weekend, Derrek Lee was moved to Pittsburgh in exchange for first baseman Aaron Baker, a 23-year old org bat who has spent 2011 in the A-Advanced Florida State League. Baker has a tick above-average raw pop and a thick frame portending impressive batting practice displays. His bat speed is merely "okay", and it's unlikely he amounts to more than an organizational piece capable of playing a solid first base and providing average production until he runs into advanced arms.

While the return is nominal, no one really expected a haul for the veteran Lee, who has struggled through a disappointing 2011 posting a triple-slash line of .246/.302/.404 over 364 plate appearances. At the same time, Orioles fans have much to celebrate with this transaction. With a tip of the hat to Mr. Lee for serving his sentence in Charm City, and best wishes as he departs for a NL Central pennant race as the second newest member of the Bucs (Pittsburgh subsequently acquired Ryan Ludwick from the Padres), Baltimoreans can take away two big positives from the former All-Star's departure.

First and foremost, this signals that Andy MacPhail and the brain trust coordinating the personnel decisions appear to truly be dedicated to giving Chris Davis every chance to get comfortable and show what he has as a starting first baseman. This was a large concern following the Uehara deal, as noted in Part 1 of our Koji trade analysis, and it is terrific news that the organization is going to make at least a two month commitment to figuring out whether or not Davis looks like a future contributor.

Secondly, Baltimore should be saving a little over one million dollars once cash considerations on the Lee deal are taken into account. Hopefully we will see that saved money funneled into draft signings. It would be a nice chunk of change to tack on to the offer to Georgia commit Nicky Delmonico (3b, Farragut HS, Knoxville, Tenn.) or enough to sign TCU outfielder Jason Coats outright (with some jingle left over). Of course, it's possible that the freed-up cash is required to meet 1st Rounder Dylan Bundy's immense asking price, but with plenty of other troubles in Birdland we prefer to remain positive. Here's to looking back on August 16th and fondly remembering when Mr. MacPhail was able to move Derrek Lee for an org bat and an overslot signing or two.

Note: We will not be running a "possibilities" piece on the Lee deal. Baltimore achieved a solid salary dump -- little more needs to fleshed out here. We will discuss Koji a bit more today (promise) and will also share some thoughts on what, if any, other moves would have been nice to see prior to yesterday's 4pm Eastern trade deadline.

Cup of jO's: Felix Pie's Celebration Technique

We do have some trade deadline perspective to share, but first . . . I noticed from an Orioles' message board that Felix Pie celebrates home runs in a strange way.

Click on the image and watch the helmet.

 My guess is that is Pie lost a bet at some point this season and has to chase down helmets.

Anyone have a better guess?

Cup of jO's (July 26, 2011): Trading Koji Uehara

Game wrap
No game.

Travel day last night, so we skip the game comments for today. Here's the link for STATS LLC's preview of the opening game of the Baltimore/Toronto series.

Of interest...

All week we'll be using the morning "Cup of jO's" space to explore the trades we think make sense for the O's as the tradeline approaches. To recap, Jon and I have reached the conclusion that this team needs to refresh it's store of young, price controlled players. It isn't time for a "tear it down and build it up" approach yet, but there needs to be an infusion of cheaper talent or the team is simply going to run out of payroll space before they can push their overall talent level pass the low-80s win mark.

Today we look at Koji Uehara. Last week Jon gave a nice synopsis of the pros and cons of trading Koji, and the type of return he would need in order to pull the trigger. Koji's contract includes a reasonable option that will kick in at some point in August, giving the acquiring team another year of cheap performance. Jon takes a sensible approach to figuring out the variables in play in determining expected return:

He is certainly always a risk to be injured, but if the tradeoff is a marginal B level prospect now vs a marginal B level prospect next year or free agent compensation... it makes some sense to delay a deal until the next trade deadline. Added to this, there sure are a lot of right handed relievers on the market right now. You will need a team that has blinders on and focus solely on Koji or the team is going to take in something of little value.

With the exception of a truly elite talent, I'm strongly in favor of moving relief arms when you think they have hit the apex of their value. We are there with Koji. Accordingly, what we are targeting here is one B/B+ prospect and perhaps a throw-in C/C- prospect. But I'm not walking away if it's simply a 1-for-1 resulting in a solid future regular. Using Jon's suggested target teams, and a couple more I think are in play, these are the potential returns I'd be looking for:

Detroit Tigers
1. Chance Ruffin (rhp, Tigers - ML) Ruffin was just promoted and got roughed up in his debut. He's a possible future set-up man who we'll explore in more detail this evening.

2. Andy Oliver (lhp, Toledo - AAA) Oliver has logged some Major League time but has yet to stick upon promotion. He's a potential mid-rotation starter or lefty set-up man, depending on how his development rounds out.

3. Drew Smyly (lhp, Lakeland - A+) Smyly is a projectable lefty with a chance for three average or better offerings. Another potential mid-rotation arm.

Because the Tigers are also shopping for starters, we will be discussing a couple more players both in the context of a Jeremy Guthrie trade, and our "expanded trade" talk at the end of the week.

Suggested Package: Andy Oliver/Chance Ruffin and Drew Smyly

Texas Rangers
1. Michael Olt (3b, Myrtle Beach - A+) Olt has made strides over the past 12 months to both improve his defense and his contact ability at the plate. His calling card is big power, a big need for the O's, but his stock may be rising too quickly for Baltimore to land him in a Koji deal.

2. Jordan Akins (of, Rangers - Rookie) Akins is enjoying a nice year with the Rangers Arizona League Rookie squad. He's a raw but promising four tool player with an excellent chance to stay in center due to his athleticism, foot speed and arm strength. He'll require development, but would be a nice get as part of a 2-for-1.

3. Justin Grimm (rhp, Myrtle Beach - A+) Grimm was an overslot signing in the fifth round of last year's draft, showing mixed results at Myrtle Beach after cruising through the Sally League to start the year. He's being developed as a starter, and has the repertoire and size for it, but might ultimately fit best in a late inning role.

4. Andrew Clark (1b, Hickory - A) Clark, as noted by Jon, is old for the league but doing what he needs to to continue to move up the system. He's a second piece target, but one that should be attainable considering Texas has not yet invested much in him -- monetarily or developmentally.

5. Robbie Erlin (lhp, Frisco - AA) Erlin hasn't found a consistent grove at Frisco, but the stuff is still there. It could be a long shot, but if Baltimore can pry Erlin away he could give the O's solid mid-rotation production from the left side. Most importantly, he could be a much needed strike thrower for the Birds.

Jon mentioned Tanner Scheppers in his piece, but back issues have limited Schep to just 20 IP this year between AA and AAA, and it isn't a risk I'd be willing to take on at this point. There is a nice mix of talent here from which to piece together a deal. The availability of some higher profile arms (such as Heath Bell and Mike Adams) could leave Texas reticent to move their more valuable pieces.

Suggested Package: Robbie Erlin; Mike Olt; Jordan Akins and Justin Grimm

Philadelphia Phillies
1. Jonathan Singleton (1b/of, Clearwater - A+) This seems like a big stretch, but we'll pay it lip service since he was rumored to be available for relief help. Singleton had a breakout year last year before backsliding some here in 2011. He's a potential corner power bat that Baltimore would likely slide back to first base (he's currently in left due to the Ryan Howard contract).

2. Brody Colvin (rhp, Clearwater - A+) A Camden Depot favorite (and part of our "Shadow System"), Colvin missed time this year due to some back troubles not considered to be serious. He is a power arm that would pair up with Bobby Bundy to form a nice 1-2 at Bowie next year.

There is not much I see Philly parting with for Koji, but we will be revisiting the system later this week when we discuss our "expanded trade" talk.

Suggested Package: Jonathan Singleton or Brody Colvin

Pittsburgh Pirates
1. Starling Marte (of, Altoona - AA) Marte has held his own in Double-A, but continues to swing through too many pitches to make full use of his plus-plus foot speed. With McCutchen handling center field at the Major League level, Pittsburgh might be willing to part with the high upside, high risk Marte. His arm, reads and routes should make him an above-average defender in center, long term, and a useful fourth outfielder at minimum.

2. Zach Von Rosenberg (rhp, West Virginia - A) Von Rosenberg is currently teamed up with top Pirates prospect Jameson Taillon at West Virginia, and he may be off the table if Pittsburgh is committed to bringing these two arms along together. But if the Pirates are looking to try and pry open their window of competitiveness a year early, they may be willing to sacrifice one of their low-Minors arms in order to solidify the back-end of their pen for the next 1.5 years. Von Rosenberg is the obvious choice, with more tied to his projectability than "now" stuff, and more highly touted Stetson Allie and Nick Kingham following close behind at short-season State College.

3. Jeff Locke (rhp, Altoona - AA) Locke is a back-end arm as a starter, but could be useful in the pen in short order, due to a deceptive motion and running two-seamer. He's a toss-in piece, and with his development as a starter stuttering the Pirates shouldn't have an issue providing him with a fresh start somewhere else.

4. Brooks Pounders (rhp, West Virginia - A) Pounders is another promising young arm at West Virginia, pitching primarily out of the pen this year. He has potential as a mid-rotation to back-end arm down the line off the strength of his secondaries and workhorse build.

The Pirates aren't likely to mortgage the future in order to add a relief arm -- even one as impressive as Uehara this year. Still, there is a chance for Baltimore to take a stab at some upside talent here. Von Rosenberg is unlikely to be moved, but considering the depth of arms being grown in the Pirates system, maybe they bite.

Suggested Packages: Zach Von Rosenberg; Starling Marte and Brooks Pounders/Jeff Locke

We will touch on our suggested packages later tonight, with more in-depth scouting reports on our targeted acquisitions. Additionally, we'll discuss Uehara again later this weeke in the context of potential larger deals with St. Louis, Philadelphia, Detroit, Atlanta and Arizona, in our "expanded trade" posts.

Cup of jO's (July 25, 2011): Trade Deadline Agenda

Game Wrap
Angels 9, Orioles 3
Box Score / Play-by-Play / AP Recap

Baltimore has not won a series since taking two of three from Cincinnati during the final week of June, and have dropped nine of their last eleven series (splitting the most recent four game set with Cleveland, in addition to the series win against the Reds). Baltimore hits the road next, with three games in Toronto, four in New York and three in Kansas City. Today is a travel day for the Birds -- tomorrow Jake Arrieta matches-up against Brandon Marrow and the Jays.

Of Interest...
It's that time of year where fans of first place and last place teams alike can get excited. Contenders are looking to add that last piece or two to help with the final push to the playoffs. Those out of contention have a chance to move short terms assets in exchange for players more likely to be contributors over the long haul. Baltimore, of course, falls into the latter category and should be looking to move pieces of value in order to help build up competitive core over the next season or two. However, we are going to think outside of the box a little and suggest a couple of "buyer" moves that we hope would speed up the re-stock (can't bring myself to type "rebuild" again).

Here is our tentative schedule for the week -- each morning we will introduce a potential trade partner, and later that day we'll dig into the trade possibilities (including scouting reports on trade targets we've had an opportunity to take a more in depth look at).

MON - Framing our moves, what we hope to accomplish
TUE - Potential trades with the Reds
WED - Potential trades with the Cardinals
THU - Potential trades with the Twins and Tigers
FRI - Potential trades with the Padres and Rockies

Cup of jO's: 2011 Trade Deadline and J.J. Hardy (AM Post)

We will be running through all of the possible ticket items that the Orioles have to give away and receive something useful in return.  The first for us to highlight, before he is signed to an extension, is J.J. Hardy.

J.J. Hardy
.356 wOBA, 275/333/490, 1.8 fWAR

Case to Keep
Ever since Miguel Tejada began rapidly aging, shortstop has been a black hole of offense for the Orioles.  Internal options never emerged, no one ever really trades a useful shortstop prospect, and free agency rarely yields good talent at that position.  Shortstops are hoarded and locked up by their teams.  However, the Twins were in a cash crunch and had doubts about J.J. Hardy.  He provided excellent defense, but is the epitome of "injury-prone" and showed an anemic bat two years running.  The Orioles jumped on Hardy and merely had to pay his salary (5.85 MM) and give up two somewhat inconsequential players (Jim Hoey with his blazing straight fastball and Aubrey Huff acquisition Brett Jacobson).

This year the Orioles are benefiting from Hardy's best offensive season of his career by rate.  The only mark on him so far has been that he has missed roughly 25 games to injury.  That is better attendance than his previous two years.  His defense has also shined and is just as good as our all glove shortstop Cesar Izturis.  The simple truth is that shortstop has been a great year for this team.  Even with Andino filling in for Hardy on several occasions, the Orioles ranked as the 10th most productive team at shortstop.  Last year, the team was 27th.  Of all of the troubles the Orioles have faced this season, shortstop has not been one of them and at 28, Hardy certainly has several years left in him.

Case to Trade
There are three major reasons to trade Hardy: he is injury-prone, he is having a career year, and you probably can trade him for useful prospects.

Injury prone.  In 2009, he barely played 100 games.  The same thing was true in 2010.  He, again, this year missed a quarter of the first half with an injury.  While it is true that none of these injuries were career threatening, the possibility lies that a future injury certainly could be career threatening.  This is probably more of a concern for a shortstop because even little dings here and there can turn into decreased ability to play third base effectively.  Injuries during his 2009 and 2010 campaigns likely had a lot to do with his issues at the plate.  Hardy's power evaporated those two years and injuries probably have some bearing on that.  If the three year extension does go through, I think it will be safe to say that Hardy will likely play 3B in 2014 with Manny Machado at shortstop.  If Machado rushes up for 2013, Hardy might make the switch earlier.  At 28, Hardy is at the point where players tend to slow down.

Career Year.  I am surprised by the 21-25 MM numbers being thrown about because J.J. Hardy is having a career year.  That is most assuredly a discount, if Hardy hits the open market...he will receive three or four years at 10+ MM.  The only way 21-25 MM makes sense to me would be if there are sizable incentives in there and a concrete no trade clause that could later turn into more money for him.  The shortstop market is incredibly thin in the upcoming year and you have several big money teams (e.g. San Francisco Giants) who will be looking to resolve issues they have at this position.  Jose Reyes might be the best option for shortstop this off season, but after Hardy there is nothing left at the position.  My guess for his value if he hit the market would be 3/36 or 4/44.  Teams close to the playoffs and in need of help will and should be willing to put up with the premium that is a career season and be tolerant of his injury issues.  The Orioles with holes a plenty, have little use for a shortstop going into his thirties with a dicey injury history.

Trade return.  Several teams are also struggling in season for an answer at shortstop.  This translates into teams being willing to give up prospects who are blocked within the team's playoff window or players in the low minors.  Trading Hardy and then overpaying him by several million may actually be cheaper than signing Hardy and then signing a free agent at a position.  The easiest scenario here would be the Reds where the Orioles could deal him for Yonder Alonso (1B) and then resign Hardy at 13-15MM a year for three years.  That would be cheaper and likely more useful than resigning Hardy and then signing Prince Fielder to a 150-200MM contract.  The point is that this team, the Orioles, is not a playoff team in the near term.  It is difficult to see how this organization can field a competitive squad in the next three years.  As such, a Hardy extension makes as much sense as Brian Roberts extension did.  Just because you are left with a hole does not mean you should spend whatever it takes to fill it because your yard may be full of holes.

Possible Trade Partners and Targets

The following teams are those who are having troubles with production from their shortstop position.  Most of these teams are producing wOBAs around .305 or less and the team is within striking distance of the divisional pennant.

AL

Tampa Bay Rays
To be kind, shortstop is killing the Rays.  They are getting decent defense there, but Reid Brignac and Elliot Johnson are providing next to nothing at the plate.  The Rays could certainly use a short term fix and would make good use of any compensation picks Hardy would provide.  However, the Rays never just look at the current season and would be unlikely to drop a major piece to the Orioles, so nothing like Desmond Jennings.  What the team could expect would be a couple low B prospects or a low B and a soon to be expensive starting pitcher.  In the former scenario, I am thinking a tandem to target would be Nick Barnese (RHP) and Braulio Lara (LHP).  In the Rays' system those guys are probably in the 10-15 tange for their prospects.  In ours, they would be in the 3-7 range.  That said, only Barnese would be consequential for next season.  Something that might be more relevant for the near term would be pairing Barnese up with Jeff Niemann (RHP).  The Rays probably do not want him much long with the arms they have pushing up from AAA and with his arbitration figures coming in.  He is also their back end rotation arm.  He would be something similar for the Orioles.  Either trade scenario probably is not ideal for the Orioles.

NL

Atlanta Braves
Money will be tight for the Braves, but Alex Gonzalez is providing nothing at the plate for them.  Gonzalez has about 1.2 MM left on his deal this year.  I could see the Braves asking the Orioles to take Gonzalez back in the deal and maybe even through in a million or two with Hardy.  Similar to the Rays, I do not see anything of immediate need available in the Braves' system.  My target here would be Arodys Vizcaino (RHP).  He has a great arm, but his durability has been questioned.  As such, you will see him ranked anywhere from top 15 to top 50 when the off season prospect rankings emerge.  Getting an arm like that means you threw money in there and a second piece is likely to be a bit fringe because no one likes giving up that kind of arm.  A player who fits that bill would be someone like Todd Cunningham (CF).  He covers the plate well with good discipline and plays good defense.  His power though is a bit unimpressive.  He is likely to be a 4th outfielder.  That said, Vizcaino would be a huge piece to have in the Orioles system and I think the Braves would be more willing to give value than the Rays.

Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers made a big splash acquiring KRod.  However, they still have an issue at shortstop.  Ex-Brewer Hardy may not be an option the team wants as there may be bad blood between the two.  The Brewers notoriously dropped Hardy into the minors to add a year service time onto his contract preventing him from reaching free agency in 2011, which is why Hardy is an Oriole right now.  The Brewers system is also void of much talent after the Grienke trade this past off season.  I would not bother entering talks with them.  If I had to deal with them, I'd settle for nothing less than three of their top four or five arms...something like Heckathorn, Scarpetta, and Thornburg...it might be better just to take the draft picks for Hardy.

Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates do not have much money to throw around and I could see the Orioles being able to leverage that by offering to pay for Hardy's deal.  The two draft picks for Hardy would also look good to the Pirates who would not have to worry about him taking arbitration.  With that in mind, I would ask for two potentially big pieces: Starling Marte (CF), Rudy Owens (LHP), and Colton Cain (LHP).  Marte could spell Adam Jones in centerfield in a couple years allowing Jones to shift to a more natural left field or for the Orioles to deal him.  Owens looks like a promising lefty who has struggled this past year in AAA.  At the very least, he is more valuable fodder than Troy Patton or Jim Johnson in the rotation.  Colton Cain would be the Chris Tillman circa Erik Bedard deal.  Cain is young with a ton of projection, but I think he could be a top 50 guy in a year.  Again, this is another forward thinking deal.  Not many opportunities available for the here and now.

In the second post today, I will focus on two more likely destinations: the Cincinatti Reds and the San Francisco Giants.  I count these as more likely because (1) their shortstops are awful and (2) they have pieces the Orioles could use right now.

Cup of jO's: Throwing in the towel for O's 2012 season?

I don't think we need to recount what happened the night before anymore unless something truly interesting happens, so for now on when I write these Cup of jO's...I am just going to jump in to whatever I want to write about.

In Brittany Ghiroli's article yesterday detailing what the Orioles are likely to do as the trade deadline comes up writes this little nugget:

Johnson has established himself as one of the best setup men in the American League, and the organization -- which has told several teams it's unwilling to discuss offers for the reliever -- continues to have internal discussions about moving Johnson into a starting role next season.

Um, what?  We have Mitch Atkins, Chris Jakubauskas, and Alfredo Simon in the starting rotation and we have to wait until next year to see if Jim Johnson can start?  This makes little sense to me.  This season, the team could stretch Johnson out 30-50 innings more than he is in line to get which would be a headstart on next season.  Plus, what is left for the team to play for this year?  If your goal is to see if Johnson can start then there is nothing preventing you from figuring that out in our current situation.

What I find more revelatory is that it seems to be an acknowledgement that the current front brass is planning on 2012 to be another lets wait and see type of season.  If the team planned on being competitive, they would be looking to next season as one where they fill in a spot or two with veteran pitchers and let the rest shake out.  Johnson should be quite far from the conversation in this regard.  He should not be held as an untouchable player due to his value as a setup man and potential (though unlikely) value as a starting pitcher.  How much value can a potential middle to backend rotation arm have?  It appears the modus operandi for the team, particularly with pitchers, is to run them into the ground and make them prove whether or not they can actually pitch.  It makes no sense to me.

It appears just as the team signed Brian Roberts to a long term deal and then squandered the front end of his deal which is where his value was actually . . . valuable (which was incredibly obvious and that extension has long been something we have railed against here in that we highly criticized it before the contract was even writtin).  It now looks like Nick Markakis' contract will also be exhuasted to no real use.  It also looks like Matt Wieters' cost-controlled years may also be squandered.  To be true, this is not an Oriole Little moment in time.  There are good things happening in the organization.  However, I have a hard time believing things are overall going in the right direction and every day it seems more and more evidence mounts illustrating how inadequate the organization might be in facing off against the superior payrolls of Boston and New York as well as against the superior innovation of Toronto, Tampa, and probably Boston, too.

Situations like these when doubt becomes feverish, I remind myself not to get too wrapped up in my own conclusions.  That I need to challenge my ideas instead of easing into a comfortable pre-formed answer.  One always needs to challenge their own beliefs and never grow complacent.  My belief is that this team although in better shape than it was three years ago is in worse shape when it comes to competing.  I'm trying to challenge that statement.  Maybe you all can help.

Cup of jO's: Keith Law's Interview About the Future of the Orioles

Perhaps more eloquently than I rambled on yesterday, Keith Law was interviewed on The Fan in Baltimore yesterday about how the Orioles situation is indeed somewhat dire.  Long time followers of this blog can probably recall my preaching of patience over the first two years of the MacPhail regime in Baltimore.  I still think what he did during that period was correct.  The team jettisoned their useful pieces and acquired prospects in return.  The team stepped up their resources in international talent acquisition.  The team stepped up money dedicated in the draft.  Then it all sort of stopped and got derailed.  The team somewhat inexplicably locked in a 30s second baseman to an overmarket deal and then failed to aggressively pursue complementary pieces in trade or free agency.  The team signed short-term fill ins for position for relatively big money (4MM or more) on individual players when that money would be far better utilized in amateur markets.  The team's aggressive move into the international market ceased before they could call their effort average.

Whatever you think of MacPhail, it is difficult to explain away the state of this team as they begin the second half of this year and come up against the trade deadline.  For position players in the Majors, the Orioles have a long term solution at catcher (Matt Wieters).  They may have long term solutions in right field (Markakis) and left field (Jones).  They may have long term solutions in the starting rotation (Matusz, Arrieta, and Britton).  That is where the team is on the pro level.  In the minors, they have Manny Machado and likely Dylan Bundy as the only two high potential difference makers.  In comparison to every other team in the AL East, the Orioles trail behind them in organizational talent.  It is certainly a team currently cursed with difficult footing in their attempt to be meaningful.

This past week's interview with Steve Melewski comes back again and again in my memory.  MacPhail's "I'm an old baseball man schtick" is an amazingly antiquated character to be the head of baseball side of a front office.  He may play a bumpkin, good ol' boy in the media or maybe he really is, I do not know.  That kind of mentality though works against teams these days.  The application of economic theory to baseball is not some passing fad.  Teams that employ these methods are wildly successful and every team not named the Orioles do so in the AL East.  Yes, teams like the Twins and Phillies as far as I know put very little stock in Wall Streeting baseball, but I think it is fair to say exceptions do not fit the rule.  The ability to utilize well founded analysis and understanding what data gaps mean is likely an easier and perhaps more cost efficient way to create success as opposed to taking a talent bankrupt organization and trying to make them flow in old school methodology that is highly reliant on anecdotal evidence as well as a overly robust distrust of any new way of evaluation and acquisition.

This past winter we saw how the Rays when unable to earn enough revenue were thinking ahead and found ways to stay relevant.  They were able to identify relief pitching types that had a better liklihood to rebound and return free agency compensation.  They decided not to spend big money on their own free agents who showed high level performance on a few skills.  These measures netted them with a dozen or so picks in the first two rounds of this year's deep draft.  That did not happen by accident.  The Blue Jays literally spent 500k to deal for a player after last season who they immediately declined an extension just to garner themselves a compensation round selection in the draft.  THESE are examples of dynamic front offices operating on the front end of the operation wave.

This is not to say that numbers and slide rulers ensure success.  They do not.  The Mariners faith (and it was faith) in defensive metrics resulted in them fielding a team that relied on statistical variables that were incredibly elastic.  Of course, Milton Bradley's complete meltdown and Chone Figgins remembering he was Chone Figgins did nothing to help.  This shows that not all heavily analytical approaches are successful, but I would reckon that the more a team is able to rely on quantitative measures the more likely they are to find areas where they can leverage their resources to improve their chances of success more so than if they simply relied on well-experienced guts.  Again...qualitative ("gut") scouting is needed and highly valued, but where it can be replaced by numbers (that are well understood in how they can be applied) it needs to be replaced.

This leaves me more firm in my notion I wrote last winter that this team needs to be rebuilt.  At the beginning of MacPhail's tenure I said this and it again is how I feel.  I do not think it needs to be completely dismantled, but I think as fans we need to recognize that signing a Prince Fielder and resigning the career-year J.J. Hardy is not going to change this team's fortune.  Over the next two weeks, we will be going through our trade items and where may be the best destination for them.  I will also pepper in a few Life Without Andy posts.

Cup of jOs: The Second Part of MacPhail's Words on IFAs

Last night, Matt Wieters grounded out to the second baseman in the eigth inning of the American League's 5-1 loss to the National League.  Peculiar rules really need to shift this back to being a pure exhibition and not something that determines post season play.  What to make the All Star Game more important?  Get rid of interleague play.

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Of interest...

A couple days ago, Steve Melewski posted the second part of his interview with Andy MacPhail and then reported his interview with Baseball America's Ben Badler.  What Melewski does well is interview often the right people.  He typically does a good job of this outside of last Winter's Keith Law interview.  What is painful to me though is that what is good about sharp, incisive interviewing is that you can ask thoughtful questions and mild criticisms while immediately recieving an answer.  In this collection of interviews, Badler provides a rebuttal of several of MacPhail's key statements.  To me, this is poor form in that MacPhail is no longer capable of responding.  If Melewski feels inadequate in questioning MacPhail's approach then he should call Badler, get his viewpoint, hone up his own research, and then ask more insightful questions and allow MacPhail to be more thoughtful in his answers.

I recognize what I am asking from Melewski is to be more of an investigative reporter.  To be more aware of what is actually out there and asking pertinent questions.  That Melewski was unaware of MacPhail's own brass speaking of studies comparing IFAs and rule 4 draft cost efficiency shows poor research.  Information is out there and it should be utilized.  Although, this may not be Melewski's game.  His game may be to be a straight interviewer who provides as little insight as possible.  It is very much a sort of Prime Directive perspective...that you remove any element of yourself in an interview in order to prevent any bias.  It certainly is something found favorable to the interviewee as their words are reported verbatim and are not scrutinized immediately by the interviewer.  Melewski does this seperation of self quite well and it certainly is a defendable manner of writing.  From my own perspective though...I think it wastes opportunity.  I mean, are we interested in MacPhail's speech on international talent or are we interested in his thoughts.  The two appear different to me.

The second part of the interview falls apart for me.  MacPhail answers questions about Miguel Sano, which were reported quite a long while back.  The Orioles were a finalist on him, but thought 3 MM was not workable as a bonus for the now top 100 prospect.  It is fair to say the jury is out on him.  He will likely be a left fielder and he will have home run power as well as a propensity to swing and miss.  MacPhail also talks about American scouts cross checking what the local scouts think, which is something almost every organization I am aware of does.  So, nothing new or different.  MacPhail also mentions the Orioles are in the Dominican, Curacao, and reentering Venezuela...which is something we already know.  There is just no new information here.  It may be that MacPhail stonewalled Melewski here or the intent was just to rehash background information and produce direct quotes from MacPhail.  These really are answers that require a paraphrase and more structure provided when writing.

Melewski then reports Ben Badler's perspective on the MacPhail interview.  His use of Badler to provide commentary results in some interesting statements that largely reflect my own opinions that were shared in the previous post.  Badler's view boils down to this:

• There is a great deal of uncertainty in the Latin American market and it is understandable for a team to be conservative in that market.  Most teams are.
• The Orioles appear to be not only conservative in that market, but tend to avoid it.
• Talent is a rare thing, so avoiding any market is probably not advisable.
• No one in this year's crop was worth more than 3MM from Badler's perspective, but you have to trust your own scouts.
• It is not difficult to see these talents play in actual games.  Very few prospects are prevented by their trainers from appearing at academies and playing.
• The Orioles are not middle of the road spenders on IFAs.

I think those are all viable perspectives.  What I put in italics are what I am reading into his words.  I should also note that Melewski also viewed MacPhail's 17th overall as a statement on IFAs, which does not make sense to Badler as well.

What do I take away from these posts?

• Someone should be writing a blog where they take Melewski's zen interviewing style and write actual articles.
• Andy MacPhail is not open-minded about IFAs and this is based on information he pretends he does not have (which may be inaccurate information) or is based on a potentially antiquated management approach.
• The team is not maximizing its ability to cheaply accumulate talent, preferring to spend money on items like relievers and "proven veterans."
• The team is probably the least progressive team in the AL East.

I think MacPhail is a competent and well respected GM, but the problem I have here is that in the AL East you need to be a trail blazing, intelligent front office (i.e., Tampa Bay Rays), have oodles of money (i.e., Yankees), have some of each (i.e., Toronto Blue Jays), or lots of each (i.e. Boston Red Sox).  In this divisional environment, how can we look at the makeup of these different teams and think that the Orioles will be a competitive team sometime in the near or slightly near future?  I am at a loss.  The Rays and Jays have top 5 talent in their minor leagues.  The Orioles appear to have Machado and Dylan Bundy, which puts them likely in the 15-20 range.  After that, the team has a lot of C+ talent. 

We are certainly better off as an organization than we were before MacPhail came here, but we are further away from competing.

Cups of jO's: MacPhail on O's International Spending (Part I of II)

Enjoy it.  Today is the beginning of our three day respite from the tiresome burden this season has become.  There have been some interesting developments this season:

• Matt Wieters has become a full fledged, accredited All Star (and primarily for his defense)
• J.J. Hardy has said everything and done everything right in wanting to become a well paid Oriole
• Adam Jones has established himself as a worthy center fielder (who might be better off playing left field)
• Mark Reynolds has displayed an amazing amount of plus power over the past six weeks.
• The bullpen has a tight core of Uehara, Johnson, and Gregg
• The Orioles arguably drafted the best arm in the 2011 draft and the guy has Oriole roots.

Read those again.  They are six good things that have happened for this team.  You cannot ignore them.  Not only are they six good things.  They are six things that should benefit the team next year as well.  Hardy is the only one who might benefit the team in whatever free agent compensation becomes.  Remember . . . good things have happened.

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Of Interest...

Steve Melewski asks some pertinent questions of Andy MacPhail in a part I  of a two part interview today.  The focus is on the Orioles' approach to international free agency.  Steve does a good job reporting what MacPhail says, but does zero commenting.  I'll provide the commenting.

• MacPhail states he is unwilling to dedicate 4 or 5MM to prospects who have never play competitive games.  He says that the efforts they have put forth have resulted in solid upswings of velocity for international players they have signed who are playing in the Dominican Summer League and in the Gulf Coast League.

MacPhail is putting forward the message that international talent is pretty much a crapshoot.  That a player who can sign a 4MM bonus is not worth that amount because we have no idea what he will become.  I do not agree with this.  Fellow talent evaluators are determining these amateurs are good enough to compete with each other and drive the price to those levels.  These fellow talent evaluators come from Ivy League front offices ranging to the very rich (e.g. Yankees, Red Sox) to the not so very rich (e.g. Athletics).  That these teams of varying backgrounds and high analytical effort are into a talent source has to tell you that these amateur talents are likely worth that much money.  To me, insisting on this perspective seems incredibly aloof.  It makes me wonder whether he believes this or that he is refraining from a secondary issue that makes them decide against spending money for high profile talent.

Second, you do have to recognize that there is a growing international presence in the Orioles lower minor league system.  However, we have to remember sample size.  Jonathan Schoop is a name most Oriole fans have become familiar with and hopefully many watched him last night in the MLB Futures game.  Another name in GCL that everyone should write a mental note on is Eduardo Rodriguez.  I have received several positive reviews on him.  Solid 18yo lefty with a good breaking ball and a 90mph fastball with movement.  Beyond that it is difficult to know what is there long term.  When money is spent on the Garrett Atkins and Vladimir Guerreros, but not on the Miguel Sanos, you know there is misevaluation in the organization.  Think about it like this.  What is worth more?  A 3 MM investment on a commodity that might return MLB value for six years at a low cost or spending 5-8 MM for a declining player in hopes the team can reach .500 ball?

• MacPhail says it makes no sense to spend big money on amateurs who only work out and not play games.

What I found interesting here and the way I read it is that the team is recognizing that the best players are not playing in the Dominican Prospect League.  I agree with that.  Furthermore, this shows that MacPhail acknowledges that the best prospects are indeed getting the big money.  It reads somewhat contradictory.  Although he may not have felt like mentioning it, it seems that the DPL is still a low priority for the team.  It is interesting for a team to say they want to see guys play in games and then goes and largely ignores the only organized league in the country.

• MacPhail mentions the team was about 17th in spending for amateur talent last year.

This was a slightly confusing statement.  This has to mean 17th in spending when adding together the rule 4 draft and international free agency.  They are around 25th in spending for international free agency.

• MacPhail thinks Melewski should do an analysis on how many big money IFAs wind up becoming solid prospects.  MacPhail must be unaware that Melewski does not do analysis.

A couple things that are kind of amusing here. (1) The Orioles have done a study on this!  Why is MacPhail saying they have not done one?  Matt Klentak specifically stated they did this.  They hired an outside consultant and did the study.  They found the IFA market was not as cost efficient as the rule 4 draft. (2) The rate for high cost prospects is about 30-40%, which is higher than multi-year declining veterans outperforming their preceding three year average.

There is not to like in MacPhail's answer there.  He cannot be truly unaware of the study because that front office is knit tight from every indication.  Why would he explicitly say he did not do a study, but others should do it?  No idea.  That said, teams who like to do studies (e.g. Blue Jays, Rays, Red Sox, Athletics) are spending freely on talent south of the Great 48.

Cup of jO's (July 7, 2011): Jim Callis Chat (Baseball America)

Game Summary
Orioles 5, Rangers 13
Box Score / Play-by-Play / AP Recap

The Rangers completed the sweep of Baltimore, and the O's now find themselves with just two wins over their last ten games, and just six over their last twenty-three. Staff ace Jeremy Guthrie was slapped around The Ballpark at Arlington, allowing nine hits, three walks and six runs (all earned) in just five innings. Things don't get any easier for Baltimore, as the Birds head to Fenway for a four game series to close out the first half of the season. You can read the STATS LLC preview of game one of the Boston series here.

Of interest...
Of interest this morning is a chat wrap from Baseball America's executive editor Jim Callis. After another O's loss, I wasn't interested in focusing on Baltimore this morning, so I turned to some general prospect info. Dropped into the middle of the chat was a reference to the top player in the O's Minor League system -- Manny Machado (ss, Advanced-A Frederick):

Matt (NJ): Jim, where does profar rank now among current prospects with his surprise power so far this year? Is he the best SS prospect in the minors besides Machado?

Jim Callis: Profar continues to impress and he has grown into more of his offensive potential this year. I have him ranked 14th overall, second among shortstops behind Machado, who I have at No. 7.

That's right. Even with the uber slump since returning from his knee injury, the executive editor at the most widely referenced media source covering baseball prospects still views Machado as the top shortstop prospect in the game, and the seventh best prospect in all of baseball. A little good news for O's fans is always welcome.

Then, scrolling down further, I found a reference to this year's first round selection, and the fourth pick overall, Dylan Bundy (rhp, Owasso HS, Owasso, Okla.):

Ryan (Baltimore): What tier of pitching prospects does Dylan Bundy fit with? A notch below the Teheran/Miller/Moore group?

Jim Callis: Those are the three best pitching prospects in the minors right now, and I'd give them credit for performing in Double-A or higher. I'd put Bundy, who I'd take over all of the 2011 draft pitchers, right behind them.

Call me crazy, it sounds like Mr. Callis considers both Machado and Bundy to be top ten talents, or in Bundy's case at least pretty darn close to that. Granted, each or likely two seasons away from the Majors at minimum. But at least the Orioles are back to adding highly regarded amateur talent to their system.

In our shadow draft, Camden Depot ended-up with Anthony Rendon (3b, Rice Univ.) and Derek "Bubba" Starling (of, Gardner Edgerton HS, Gardner, Kan.) as our top selections for the past two years. Callis had this to say about the Rice standout:

Steve (Seattle): Am I crazy to think that Anthony Rendon might not sign with Washington? Seems like his stocked dropped a lot and he could be a potential #1 pick next year with improved power and health.

Jim Callis: I'd be shocked if Rendon doesn't sign. Nationals GM Mike Rizzo and Scott Boras cut big draft deals all the time, and Rendon will be paid handsomely. I still would take him over anyone in the 2011 draft.

So, at least for now, Camden Depot gets the nod with regards to Rendon over Bundy -- even if only by the slimist of margins. Callis is a huge backer of Machado, so I have no doubt he would prefer Manny to Bubba. Should be an interesting group of pairings to follow. However it ultimately shakes out, O's fans should be thrilled to have Machado (and hopefully Bundy) in the system. Let's enjoy the bright spots when we can. After all, the Birds have Boston up next...

Cup of jO's (July 6, 2011): Introducing Yonder Alonso and Zack Cozart

Game Summary
Orioles 2, Rangers 4
Box Score / Play-by-Play / AP Recap

The Birds smacked eleven hits off of Rangers's starter Matt Harrison in just six innings but were only able to plate two runs as the O's fell again to the Rangers. In his first start for the O's, Mitch Atkins went six strong, allowing eight hits and no walks while striking out four. J.J. Hardy and All-Star selection Matt Wieters each hit solo shots, accounting for the only two runs of the game for Baltimore. Staff ace Jeremy Guthrie tries to help Baltimore avoid the sweep today -- you can read the STATS LLC preview here.

Of interest...
Of interest to me this morning is a pair of trade targets to add to our list of potential trade deadline targets. Yonder Alonso and Zack Cozart are members of the Reds's AAA affiliate, the Louisville Bats. Each were selected to the International League All-Star team, a brief player summary from the team's official blog:

OF Yonder Alonso will be appearing in his first career Triple-A All-Star Game. This will be his second career All-Star selection in his minor league career. The other was in 2009 as a member of the Sarasota Reds when he was selected to the Florida State League All-Star Game. In 2011, Alonso has a .299avg with 9hr and 42rbi. His .299 batting average is good for fourth best on the team with a minimum of 200 at-bats.

SS Zack Cozart has been selected to his third career minor league All-Star Game and it will be the first time he has played in the annual IL – PCL showdown. He was a 2009 Southern League All-Star while with Carolina and a 2008 Midwest League All-Star while a member of the Dayton Dragons. In 2011, Cozart has a .321 avg. with 7hr and 30rbi. He also is second on the team and third in the International League with 26 doubles.

Both Alonso and Cozart fill potential holes for Baltimore -- long term shortstop and long term first baseman -- and Alonso is clearly blocked at first by slugger Joey Votto. As with Blanks, we will go more in depth with Alonso and Cozart in our full scouting report. For now, here are links to their respective stat pages:

Yonder Alonso: Fangraphs Baseball-reference
Zack Cozart: Fangraphs Baseball-reference

Cup of jO's (July 5, 2011): Introducing Kyle Blanks

Game Summary
Box Score / Play-by-Play / AP Recap

It was a typical evening for the 2011 Orioles. The offense sputtered through nine innings, notching just six hits -- two of them homeruns off the bat of Mark Reynolds, who now sits at 20 on the year. Reynolds's homeruns are becoming almost a nightly occurrence, but unfortunately so too are his errors. He booted a grounder to earn an E yesterday -- also his 20th on the year. Chris Jakubauskas and Alfredo Simon were slapped around the Ballpark at Arlington to the tune of 12 R, 11 ER, 16 H and just 2 SO over 6.1 IP. The battered Birds will send Mitch Atkins to the mound tonight -- click here for the STATS LLC preview of his match-up against Matt Harrison and the Rangers.

Of interest...
Of interest to me this morning is our first proposed trade target for this July's trade deadline -- San Diego 1b/of Kyle Blanks. We will provide a full scouting report on Blanks, but for now I simply want to introduce you to a talent I believe could fill Baltimore's first base hole for the foreseeable future. Blanks missed a chunk of 2010 and the start of 2011 recovering from Tommy John surgery. While he was out, the Padres traded their All-Star first baseman, Adrian Gonzalez, to Boston this past winter in exchange for a package that included Anthony Rizzo -- a highly regarded first base prospect. Rizzo has quickly risen through the Minors and currently finds himself at first for the Padres, potentially making Blanks available.

While Blanks has logged some time in the outfield corners while blocked by Gonzalez, he is a plodder and not well suited to the spacious outfield of Petco. It seems unlikely the Padres would turn around and move one of the primary pieces in the AGon deal, which means Blanks should be available for the right price. Is he worth pursuing?

This past week the Padre slugger earned Pacific Coast League (AAA) player of the week honors, after posting a seven day triple slash line of .520/.586/1.240, going 13-for-25. He profiles as a corner bat with above average hit and power tools, and a ceiling somewhere around a .390 wOBA, 30-35 homerun pop and an ability to draw 65-75 walks a year. We'll dig into Banks in more detail with our scouting report -- for now, we just wanted to introduce you to him. Here are his relevant stat pages: Fangraphs | Baseball-reference

Cup of jO's (July 4, 2011): All-Star Matt Wieters

Game Recap
Box Score / Play-by-Play / AP Summary

Mark Reynolds homered again and the O's were able to rally past the Braves after coughing up a three run lead in the sixth inning. Zach Britton put together a solid start, and even chipped in with the bat, homering in the third inning. The Birds travel west to Arlington for a 4th of July showdown with Colby Lewis and the Rangers.

Of interest to me...
Of interest to me this morning is Jeff Zrebiec's article in the Baltimore Sun on Matt Wieters's selection to the All-Star game -- what I am sure is to be the first of several future appearances. According to Zrebiec's piece, Wieters leads the Majors in runners caught stealing (22) and is the only backstop yet to allow a pass ball. Wieters's defensive work has been a joy to watch in an otherwise disappointing year for the Birds, and has even made its way to YouTube in highlight real form:




I've clocked Wieters sub-1.9 seconds on pop times to second base throughout the year -- well below the generally accepted average for Major League catchers (around 2.0 seconds). Always in possession of a plus to plus plus arm (he even served as a closer at Georgia Tech, touching the mid-90s off the mound), it is the improvement his footwork and transfer that has allowed him to step up for good catch-and-throw backstop to among the best in the league.

While the Minor League hype surrounding Wieters was centered on his bat, it is his glove and his arm that have helped the young phenom secure his first selection to an American League All-Star squad. Also encouraging is Wieters .315 wOBA, which places him seventh in the Majors among catchers, and his fWAR of 2.0 making him the fourth most valuable catcher in the Majors according to Fangraphs.

I have little doubt that Wieters will continue to grow, offensively. The larger question is how many years the Orioles will be able to pencil him in at the 2-spot before his 6-foot-5 230-pound body starts to react negatively to the grind of a Major League season. The Twins's Joe Mauer is the only comparably sized talent we have with whom to compare Wieters. If his career arc is any indication, the news is good for Baltimore as Mauer was able to stay healthy enough to produce 33.9 fWAR over his under-control years in the Twin Cities. Wieters, of course, has further development to come before he can be counted on as a 6+ fWAR player, year-in and year-out. But 2011 has been a terrific step forward for the former top O's prospect, and his presence as a nightly member of the Baltimore battery can only have positive effects on the young arms on whom the O's depending to shut down the powerful bats of the AL East.

Congrats on the All-Star selection, Matt. Here's to your emergence as one of the top catchers in the game.

Cup of jO's (July 3, 2011): While we were out...

Catching up with the birds...

Baltimore is mired in a five game losing streak, dropping to ten below .500 for the first time this season and likely ending any outlandish fantasies about miracles runs at a Wild Card. Through these five losses, Baltimore has not led at the end of an inning, and has only grabbed the lead once -- yesterday in the top of the fourth inning the O's took a 2-0 lead after a Mark Reynolds before losing that lead as soon as the Braves stepped up to bat in the bottom half.

Baltimore now has the third worst run differential in all of baseball (-62) behind just the Cubs (-76) and the Astros (-91). They are 14.5 games behind the first place Yankees and five games behind the Red Sox for the Wild Card. With the 2011 season all but officially over for The Birds, it's time to consider the future. While looking ahead to the next season is not a novel occurrence for O's fans, the sheer weight of 14 straight years of meaningless second half games has a way of grinding the interest out of a fan base (and rightfully so). In order to try and keep our readers excited, or at least interested, over the next month, I will be posting scouting reports on trade targets -- both rumored and suggested.

Hopefully that will keep stimulating conversation among Orioles fans, and as a group Orioles fans can continue to try and hold out hope that a turnaround is somewhere in the not-to-distant future. This is still a core that can be built around, but as Jon and I have written numerous times this upcoming off-season may be the last significant opportunity for that building to produce a meaningful effect. To the extent Baltimore can find solutions in the trade market over the next 28 days, the pressure of checking everything off a long "to do" list in the off-season could be considerably lessened.

I'll be at the field this afternoon for game one of the USA Collegiate National Team's series against their counterparts from Japan. This evening I'll post some thoughts on the start of the International Free Agent signing period and yesterday's somewhat surprising barrage of bonuses.

Zach Britton is taking on the Braves this afternoon -- you can read a preview of the match-up from STATS LLC here.