Strikezone Analysis for June 21 - 23: Orioles at Blue Jays

Series Thoughts

This was not an attractively umpired series, at home plate or in general. This was the worst called series since at least May 10 - 12 in Minnesota. Such is the way of baseball, though. The Orioles lost three in a row to the surging Jays, not because of the FBI agents on the field, but because of pitching struggles, offensive struggles, or both.

The one thing almost every manager and player asks for from an umpire is a consistent strikezone. Whether it's a wide zone or tight zone, a consistent zone can be figured out. For this series, the Blue Jays' Rzone was called correctly at rates of 88.24%, 86.36%, and 84.21%. The Orioles' Rzone was called correctly at 83.82%, 83.82%, and 84.51%. The pitching on Sunday was so awful, no strikezone was going to fix it, but one can't help but wonder if the more inconsistently called zones the Orioles had on Friday and Saturday, in close games, had an influence.

PITCHf/x Summary Data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0An-w9dFaRvtmdERyaVpYYU1PNWNaWUpkc21yYXNDM2c&usp=drive_web

Game data after the jump, as always.

June 21, 2013: Orioles - 6, Blue Jays - 7

Tough loss for the team. Apart from losing to a hot division rival, giving up a home run to Kawasaki, the first of his MLB career, is rough. Putting in Pedro Strop in a tie game in the 9th inning is a questionable decision, although if he's on the roster, he has to be used at some point. Most difficult of all was the horrendous display of umpiring that resulted in Showalter being ejected. It's almost impossible for anyone other than the hitter, the catcher, or the home plate umpire to know whether or not Davis fouled the pitch off. However, the umpire called a foul ball and denied Chris Davis the right to run to first base on the dropped third strike, in violation of the rules. The insult to injury was that the out resulted from the home plate umpire asking the base umpires what happened three feet away from him and one hundred feet from them. :: sigh ::

Something that I have learned as I have engaged in this strikezone analysis exercise is that baseball tends to balance out, or regress to the mean, as the statisticians would say. One night's awful strikezone hurts the Orioles and the next night's helps. It's just extremely difficult to swallow the errors not of judgment, but of incompetence, when they begin directly affecting the outcome of the game, not just of a pitch.

Hernandez, Angel	Real	% of Total	% of Chances		Typical	% of Total	% of Chances
Correct Calls	117	86.03%			118	86.76%
Incorrect Calls	19	13.97%			18	13.24%
Balls Called Balls	80	58.82%	85.11%		69	50.74%	97.18%
Strike Called Strike	37	27.21%	88.10%		49	36.03%	75.38%
Strikes Called Balls	5	3.68%	11.90%		16	11.76%	24.62%
Balls Called Strikes	14	10.29%	14.89%		2	1.47%	2.82%
Borderline - Balls	15	11.03%	40.54%
Borderline - Strikes	22	16.18%	59.46%
Baltimore Orioles	Real	% of Team	% of Chances		Typical	% of Team	% of Chances
Ball Called Ball	40	58.82%	81.63%		38	55.88%	97.44%
Strike Called Strike	17	25.00%	89.47%		25	36.76%	86.21%
Strike Called Ball	2	2.94%	10.53%		4	5.88%	13.79%
Ball Called Strike	9	13.24%	18.37%		1	1.47%	2.56%
Borderline Pitches	37	26.06%
Borderline - Balls	4	28.57%
Borderline - Strikes	10	71.43%
Calls in Favor	12		8.82%		13		9.56%
Calls Against	7		5.15%		5		3.68%
Toronto Blue Jays	Real	% of Team	% of Chances		Typical	% of Team	% of Chances
Ball Called Ball	40	58.82%	88.89%		31	45.59%	96.88%
Strike Called Strike	20	29.41%	86.96%		24	35.29%	66.67%
Strike Called Ball	3	4.41%	13.04%		12	17.65%	33.33%
Ball Called Strike	5	7.35%	11.11%		1	1.47%	3.13%
Borderline Pitches	32	28.91%
Borderline - Balls	11	47.83%
Borderline - Strikes	12	52.17%
Calls in Favor	7		5.15%		5		3.68%
Calls Against	12		8.82%		13		9.56%

June 21, 2013: Orioles - 2, Blue Jays - 4

The strikezone called by Paul Nauert was embarrassing. It was NBA referee-level embarrassing. The 85.07% Rzone correct call rate was the lowest since June 7. The 18 Rzone balls called strikes in the game ties for the 4th highest this season (21 is the highest). The 5 Tzone balls called strikes ties for the most since May 4. Despite this, the Orioles actually had more calls in their favor, 11 to 9. However, even with the large strikezone, the Orioles only had 6 out of 13 called borderline pitches called strikes. The Blue Jays had 10 out of 15 called strikes.

The bottom line is that it was a very, very large strikezone until Darren O'Day came on in the bottom of the 8th inning. O'Day threw 12 pitches. Of these, 6 were called (the batter did not swing). Of these 6, 3 were in the Rzone and correctly called strikes. Of the other 3, 1 was in the Rzone and called a ball while the other 2 were within the Tzone and were called balls, despite being consistenly called strikes all day. All 3 of the strikes that were called balls were in the Bautista at bat and would have changed the course of the plate appearance by putting O'Day in a pitcher's count instead of a hitter's count.

Nauert, Paul	Real	% of Total	% of Chances		Typical	% of Total	% of Chances
Correct Calls	114	85.07%			120	89.55%
Incorrect Calls	20	14.93%			14	10.45%
Balls Called Balls	84	62.69%	82.35%		77	57.46%	93.90%
Strike Called Strike	30	22.39%	93.75%		43	32.09%	82.69%
Strikes Called Balls	2	1.49%	6.25%		9	6.72%	17.31%
Balls Called Strikes	18	13.43%	17.65%		5	3.73%	6.10%
Borderline - Balls	12	8.96%	42.86%
Borderline - Strikes	16	11.94%	57.14%
Baltimore Orioles	Real	% of Team	% of Chances		Typical	% of Team	% of Chances
Ball Called Ball	40	58.82%	80.00%		36	52.94%	90.00%
Strike Called Strike	17	25.00%	94.44%		23	33.82%	82.14%
Strike Called Ball	1	1.47%	5.56%		5	7.35%	17.86%
Ball Called Strike	10	14.71%	20.00%		4	5.88%	10.00%
Borderline Pitches	35	28.46%
Borderline - Balls	7	53.85%
Borderline - Strikes	6	46.15%
Calls in Favor	11		8.21%		8		5.97%
Calls Against	9		6.72%		6		4.48%
Toronto Blue Jays	Real	% of Team	% of Chances		Typical	% of Team	% of Chances
Ball Called Ball	44	66.67%	84.62%		41	62.12%	97.62%
Strike Called Strike	13	19.70%	92.86%		20	30.30%	83.33%
Strike Called Ball	1	1.52%	7.14%		4	6.06%	16.67%
Ball Called Strike	8	12.12%	15.38%		1	1.52%	2.38%
Borderline Pitches	33	28.46%
Borderline - Balls	5	33.33%
Borderline - Strikes	10	66.67%
Calls in Favor	9		6.72%		6		4.48%
Calls Against	11		8.21%		8		5.97%

June 22, 2013: Orioles - 5, Blue Jays - 13

Well, that didn't go as planned. Another poorly called game that, on paper, slightly favored the Orioles in terms of total mistake calls. Once again, the Orioles got the short end of the borderline called strike stick. But, there's only so much that can be said for a 13 - 5 game. 

Freddy Garcia was... not good. He threw 27 fastballs, 17 for strikes, and had no whiffs. He threw 18 off-speed pitches, 13 for strikes, and had one whiff. He threw 16 breaking balls, 10 for strikes, and had one whiff. That is a lot of strikes with very few swings and misses. Garcia has to fool batters to be successful and he wasn't fooling anyone.

In June, Garcia has now thrown 17.2 IP and allowed 20 ER, including an alarming 36 baserunners and 9 HR. As Garcia is providing neither quality innings or any significant quantity of innings, it may be time to seek starting pitching elsewhere.

Eddings, Doug	Real	% of Total	% of Chances		Typical	% of Total	% of Chances
Correct Calls	108	84.38%			114	89.06%
Incorrect Calls	20	15.63%			14	10.94%
Balls Called Balls	75	58.59%	82.42%		66	51.56%	98.51%
Strike Called Strike	33	25.78%	89.19%		48	37.50%	78.69%
Strikes Called Balls	4	3.13%	10.81%		13	10.16%	21.31%
Balls Called Strikes	16	12.50%	17.58%		1	0.78%	1.49%
Borderline - Balls	16	12.50%	59.26%
Borderline - Strikes	11	8.59%	40.74%
Baltimore Orioles	Real	% of Team	% of Chances		Typical	% of Team	% of Chances
Ball Called Ball	41	57.75%	82.00%		35	49.30%	97.22%
Strike Called Strike	19	26.76%	90.48%		27	38.03%	77.14%
Strike Called Ball	2	2.82%	9.52%		8	11.27%	22.86%
Ball Called Strike	9	12.68%	18.00%		1	1.41%	2.78%
Borderline Pitches	46	33.09%
Borderline - Balls	9	64.29%
Borderline - Strikes	5	35.71%
Calls in Favor	11		8.59%		6		4.69%
Calls Against	9		7.03%		8		6.25%
Toronto Blue Jays	Real	% of Team	% of Chances		Typical	% of Team	% of Chances
Ball Called Ball	34	59.65%	82.93%		31	54.39%	100.00%
Strike Called Strike	14	24.56%	87.50%		21	36.84%	80.77%
Strike Called Ball	2	3.51%	12.50%		5	8.77%	19.23%
Ball Called Strike	7	12.28%	17.07%		0	0.00%	0.00%
Borderline Pitches	29	39.66%
Borderline - Balls	7	53.85%
Borderline - Strikes	6	46.15%
Calls in Favor	9		7.03%		8		6.25%
Calls Against	11		8.59%		6		4.69%