Strikezone Analysis for June 17 - 19: Orioles at Tigers

Series Thoughts

Hitters during this series could be forgiven for not quite knowing where the strikezone was being located. Mark Wegner righted the ship on Thursday, but for the first two games, correct call rates were well below 90%, pitches outside of even the Tzone were being called strikes, and some absolutely grooved pitches over the plate were called balls. The first two games favored the Tigers on missed calls, while the third favored the Orioles significantly. The final Rzone tally was 28 calls in favor of the Orioles and 26 calls in favor of the Tigers.

On the bright side, the Orioles ran The Cavalry out and they won 2 out of 3 against the AL Central leading Tigers. On the down side, the starters only put up 15 IP and gave up 9 ER, 22 H, and 7 BB.

The Cavalry rides... again?

PITCHf/x Summary Data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0An-w9dFaRvtmdERyaVpYYU1PNWNaWUpkc21yYXNDM2c#gid=0

Game data after the jump.


June 17, 2013: Orioles - 1, Tigers -  5

Welcome back, Jake Arrieta. Unfortunately, your stay is likely to be a short one.

Here's what Arrieta did well: He only gave up 1 BB in 4.2 IP and he only threw 5 balls above the zone.  While there was some horizontal movement in his release point, there is very little vertical variability, indicating that Arrieta had full control of his elbow and was not dropping it. This is important because dropping the elbow prevents the pitcher from getting on top of the ball and results in pitches up in the zone.

Here's what Arrieta did not do well: his average fastball to average changeup velocity difference was just 7.5 mph. That's not enough to fool MLB hitters, especially not the likes of Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera. I suspect that if Arrieta could learn a proper circle changeup, instead of a straight changeup, he could take a few more mph off of the pitch and it would be more effective. When combined with his sinker, which was fairly effective (21/27 thrown for strikes, 14/21 strikes not in play), it could be what allows him to become an effective relief pitcher in the mold of Tommy Hunter. But with no consistent third pitch and not enough of a difference between his changeup and fastball, even better control won't help Jake succeed at the MLB level.

Timmons, Tim	Real	% of Total	% of Chances		Typical	% of Total	% of Chances
Correct Calls	117	87.97%			118	88.72%
Incorrect Calls	16	12.03%			15	11.28%
Balls Called Balls	78	58.65%	87.64%		72	54.14%	94.74%
Strikes Called Strikes	39	29.32%	88.64%		46	34.59%	80.70%
Strikes Called Balls	5	3.76%	11.36%		11	8.27%	19.30%
Balls Called Strikes	11	8.27%	12.36%		4	3.01%	5.26%
Borderline - Balls	11	8.27%	39.29%
Borderline - Strikes	17	12.78%	60.71%
Baltimore Orioles	Real	% of Team	% of Chances		Typical	% of Team	% of Chances
Ball Called Ball	33	61.11%	91.67%		30	55.56%	93.75%
Strike Called Strike	17	31.48%	94.44%		18	33.33%	81.82%
Strike Called Ball	1	1.85%	5.56%		4	7.41%	18.18%
Ball Called Strike	3	5.56%	8.33%		2	3.70%	6.25%
Borderline Pitches	25	21.55%
Borderline - Balls	5	41.67%
Borderline - Strikes	7	58.33%
Calls in Favor	7		5.26%		9		6.77%
Calls Against	9		6.77%		6		4.51%
Detroit Tigers	Real	% of Team	% of Chances		Typical	% of Team	% of Chances
Ball Called Ball	45	56.96%	84.91%		42	53.16%	95.45%
Strike Called Strike	22	27.85%	84.62%		28	35.44%	80.00%
Strike Called Ball	4	5.06%	15.38%		7	8.86%	20.00%
Ball Called Strike	8	10.13%	15.09%		2	2.53%	4.55%
Borderline Pitches	31	17.12%
Borderline - Balls	6	37.50%
Borderline - Strikes	10	62.50%
Calls in Favor	9		6.77%		6		4.51%
Calls Against	7		5.26%		9		6.77%

June 18, 2013: Orioles - 5, Tigers -  2

Welcome back, Zach Britton. You've almost certainly earned a longer stay with the club.

Let's take a look at Britton's release point and compare it to Arrieta's above.

That's a very tight cluster and bodes well for Britton. Yes, he had more BB than Arrieta and yes, he threw more pitches up in the zone (9 above the zone). However, mechanical consistency means that his troubles were more likely the result of nibbling or not having a good feel for his pitches, rather than a mechanical issue. That's good, because it means that it's more likely that his next start will be better.

Similarly to Arrieta, Britton needs to increase the change in velocity from his fastball, which was sitting 91-92 and his changeup, which was about 85.

Winters, Mike	Real	% of Total	% of Chances		Typical	% of Total	% of Chances
Correct Calls	140	86.96%			132	81.99%
Incorrect Calls	21	13.04%			29	18.01%
Balls Called Balls	102	63.35%	87.93%		85	52.80%	94.44%
Strikes Called Strikes	38	23.60%	84.44%		47	29.19%	66.20%
Strikes Called Balls	7	4.35%	15.56%		24	14.91%	33.80%
Balls Called Strikes	14	8.70%	12.07%		5	3.11%	5.56%
Borderline - Balls	25	15.53%	64.10%
Borderline - Strikes	14	8.70%	35.90%
Baltimore Orioles	Real	% of Team	% of Chances		Typical	% of Team	% of Chances
Ball Called Ball	46	61.33%	90.20%		41	54.67%	95.35%
Strike Called Strike	20	26.67%	83.33%		23	30.67%	71.88%
Strike Called Ball	4	5.33%	16.67%		9	12.00%	28.13%
Ball Called Strike	5	6.67%	9.80%		2	2.67%	4.65%
Borderline Pitches	40	30.08%
Borderline - Balls	9	52.94%
Borderline - Strikes	8	47.06%
Calls in Favor	8		4.97%		17		10.56%
Calls Against	13		8.07%		12		7.45%
Detroit Tigers	Real	% of Team	% of Chances		Typical	% of Team	% of Chances
Ball Called Ball	56	65.12%	86.15%		44	51.16%	93.62%
Strike Called Strike	18	20.93%	85.71%		24	27.91%	61.54%
Strike Called Ball	3	3.49%	14.29%		15	17.44%	38.46%
Ball Called Strike	9	10.47%	13.85%		3	3.49%	6.38%
Borderline Pitches	36	26.67%
Borderline - Balls	16	72.73%
Borderline - Strikes	6	27.27%
Calls in Favor	13		8.07%		12		7.45%
Calls Against	8		4.97%		17		10.56%

June 19, 2013: Orioles - 13, Tigers - 3

How did Tillman's release point look?

Tillman was dropping his elbow some, which is probably why he fell behind so many hitters and ran up his pitch count in a game where he should have had no problem saving the bullpen. I suspect that most of the issue was coming from trying to throw his curveball, which he threw 13 times for just 2 strikes. That's not typical for Tillman and when he can locate his curve, he's much more effective.

Wegner, Mark	Real	% of Total	% of Chances		Typical	% of Total	% of Chances
Correct Calls	154	91.12%			141	83.43%
Incorrect Calls	15	8.88%			28	16.57%
Balls Called Balls	102	60.36%	95.33%		85	50.30%	98.84%
Strikes Called Strikes	52	30.77%	83.87%		56	33.14%	67.47%
Strikes Called Balls	10	5.92%	16.13%		27	15.98%	32.53%
Balls Called Strikes	5	2.96%	4.67%		1	0.59%	1.16%
Borderline - Balls	18	10.65%	54.55%
Borderline - Strikes	15	8.88%	45.45%
Baltimore Orioles	Real	% of Team	% of Chances		Typical	% of Team	% of Chances
Ball Called Ball	52	63.41%	92.86%		48	58.54%	97.96%
Strike Called Strike	23	28.05%	88.46%		26	31.71%	78.79%
Strike Called Ball	3	3.66%	11.54%		7	8.54%	21.21%
Ball Called Strike	4	4.88%	7.14%		1	1.22%	2.04%
Borderline Pitches	32	20.25%
Borderline - Balls	6	46.15%
Borderline - Strikes	7	53.85%
Calls in Favor	11		6.51%		21		12.43%
Calls Against	4		2.37%		7		4.14%
Detroit Tigers	Real	% of Team	% of Chances		Typical	% of Team	% of Chances
Ball Called Ball	50	57.47%	98.04%		37	42.53%	100.00%
Strike Called Strike	29	33.33%	80.56%		30	34.48%	60.00%
Strike Called Ball	7	8.05%	19.44%		20	22.99%	40.00%
Ball Called Strike	1	1.15%	1.96%		0	0.00%	0.00%
Borderline Pitches	37	19.39%
Borderline - Balls	12	60.00%
Borderline - Strikes	8	40.00%
Calls in Favor	4		2.37%		7		4.14%
Calls Against	11		6.51%		21		12.43%