23 May 2011

Predicted Wins and Playoff Probability: Week 8

The Orioles have been interchanging between good weeks and bad weeks.  This is reflected in the predicted wins displayed in the chart below.  The magnitude of the differences is getting smaller and smaller with each progressive week, but that could certainly change if several of the players get hot.  However, it remains unlikely this team is a playoff caliber squad.  In the remaining 117 games, the Orioles will need to win at a .615 clip to reach 93 total wins.  That should be good enough for the wild card or an outside chance for a low win total of a AL East champion.  The Depot has the probability at 0.17%.  PECOTA is much more optimistic at 2.6%.

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Notable Post of the Last Week:
The Science of Baseball: May 22, 2011
Updated Composite Draft Board
Danny Hultzen Scouting Report

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