Non-tendered Relievers on the Market

Saunders could be an excellent reliever.

This post will focus on potential finds for relievers who were non-tendered this week.

Doug Slaten, LHP
32 yo
Washington Nationals

Slaten only managed 16 appearances this past season due to issues with ulnar neuritis.  When healthy, he is an effective LOOGY (lefty one-out guy).  Over his career, lefties have OPS'd .666 with righties smacking him at .864.  He uses a 90 mph two seamer and an effective slider.  Against righties he uses a changeup as a show me pitch.

Dan Cortes, RHP
25 yo
Seattle Mariners

Cortes was a top 100 prospect in 2008 and 2009 for Baseball America.  He uses a mid to high 90s fastball, a slider, and a curve ball.  The curve is impressive, but has shows little control of it.  It is a pitch that seems to be left alone by batters who instead sit on fastballs.  It is uncertain what he will bring to the table in the future.  He had an unspecified off field injury that resulted in surgery on his shoulder and his bicep.  He also apparently suffered a fractured hand as well.  If he does heal and if he gains just a little bit more command and control then he could be an excellent reliever.  He could be work a MiL deal.

Jose Mijares, LHP
27 yo
Minnesota Twins

From 2008 to 2010, Mijares was a dependable arm out of the Twins bullpen.  He was roughly a 3 ERA pitcher with 8 k/9 and 3 b/9.  In 2011, injuries finally took their toll on Mijares and he let the opposition get on base.  His fastball dropped from 91.3 to 89.8 and he lost the ability to effectively use his slider.  If he proves himself healthy, he could be a solid option.

Hong-Chih Kuo, LHP
30 yo
Los Angeles Dodgers

From 2008-2010, Kuo was one of the best relievers in the National League.  A lefty who was effective against both right handed and left handed batters.  He often suffered minor injuries, but his 2011 season was marred by them.  Of most concern was his tweaked elbow and the resulting loss of velocity in his fastball (from 94.2 to 92.5).  If a team thinks he can be healthy, then he deserves a Major League deal.

Aaron Laffey, LHP
27 yo
Kansas City Royals

Laffey is a Cumberland, MD native.  Dan Duquette speaks about investing locally, but Laffey may not be exactly what he has in mind.  He is a groundball pitcher who nibbles on the edge.  He walks 3.6 b/9 and manages 4.5 k/9.  Those are difficult percentages to live by.  He could be useful in the pen or as AAA starting depth.  He could be the Orioles new Mark Hendrickson.  He could wind up with a Major League deal for someone in dire need of rotational depth.

Clay Hensley, RHP
32 yo
Miami Marlins

Hensley surprised everyone in 2010 as he helped anchor the Marlin bullpen.  He came into the season with a refined curve and more effective usage of his changeup.  In 2011, his curve left him and he resorted to throwing his slider.  It did not work.  These issues probably result from him cracking his ribs in May and then suffering a shoulder injury in June.  If you ignore his horrific August, he actually had a pretty good year.  He could be a good pickup.

Micah Owings, RHP
29 yo
Arizona Diamondbacks

Owings eats up right handed batters.  They manage a .647 OPS while a .912 OPS is what lefties enjoy.  If protected, he can be a useful member of a bullpen.

Joe Saunders, LHP
31 yo
Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona did not offer Saunders a contract after paying him 5.5 MM last year.  It would be unlikely to convince him to come out of the pen, but he destroys lefties.  Last year he had a .581/.810 left/right split.  A few years after winning 17 and 16 games as well as putting up a 3.69 ERA.  A possibility would be to throw a 5 MM deal under the expectation that he would shift to being a relief pitcher.

Free Agents - Shortstop

This is the fourth of a series of posts on free agents.

C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | LF | CF | RF | DH | SP | RHRP | LHRP

Reyes is the jewel of the SS Market

For the sake of completeness, we will look at shortstop.

For the purpose of this post, we are using the following groupings:

Elite: Greater than 4.5 WAR / 600 PA
Good: 3.5 to 4.5 WAR / 600 PA
Above Average: 2.5 to 3.5 WAR / 600 PA
Average: 1.5 to 2.5 WAR / 600 PA
Poor Starter: 0.75 to 1.5 WAR / 600 PA
Backup: Below 0.75 WAR / 600 PA

No one below a projected 0.75 WAR should be offered anything more than a minor league contract with an invite to training camp.  The values were calculated by weighting performance of the past three seasons normalized each year to 600 PA.  This ranking does not consider injury status which will likely affect some players.

Elite (greater than 4.5 WAR / 600 PA)
Jose Reyes (4.7)
It looks as if the Mets will not be resigning Reyes.  Whoever signs him should have premium performance at short for several years.

Good (3.5 to 4.5 WAR / 600 PA)
J.J. Hardy (4.2)
If Hardy could actually get to the plate 600 times, he would projects as a 4.2 WAR player.  He could be the most valuable player on the team.

Above Average (2.5 to 3.5 WAR / 600 PA)
Jamey Carroll (3.2)
Carroll's ability to get on base along with his ability to play shortstop adequately makes him a potential option here.  However, tweeners like Carroll always teeter on being completely unable to competently play shortstop.
Nick Punto (3.1)
Punto's ability to rank high here is a primarily due to his offensive performance last year.  I doubt his ability to truly give above average performance at this position.
Jimmy Rollins (2.8)
Rollins' offensive has taken a hard turn downward, but he still plays a decent shortstop.  The low baseline for short keeps Rollins in the conversation as an above average shortstop.  His past performance though may encourage a team to pay him more than he is worth.
Clint Barmes (2.6)
Barmes can play SS solidly and show some power.  He could potentially be a decent starter.

Average (1.5 to 2.5 WAR / 600 PA)
Rafael Furcal (2.4)
This projection does not adequately account for his injury issues.  I would value him far less than this.
Ramon Santiago (2.2)
The Tigers do not see him as a starter, but the numbers suggest otherwise.  He could be a cheap and effective option for a team who needs to fill a hole at short.
Jerry Hairston Jr (2.0)
Hairston cannot defend the position well, but his bat carries him.
Edgar Renteria (1.8)
Renteria is on the downside of his career.  He will likely put up performance below this measure.

Poor Starter (0.75 to 1.5 WAR / 600 PA)
Alex Gonzalez (1.5)
Gonzalez has had one good season and two awful ones.  One is more probable than the other.
Robert Andino (1.2)
Andino does not field well enough or hit well enough.
Ronny Cedeno (1.0)
Cedeno is a utility infielder, no more.

The Rest (less than 0.75 WAR / 600 PA)
John MacDonald (0.7), Orlando Cabrera (0.7), Craig Counsell (0.4), Yuniesky Betancourt (0.2), Jack Wilson (0.0), and Cesar Izturis (-0.3).

Free Agents - Second Base

This is the third of a series of posts on free agents.

C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | LF | CF | RF | DH | SP | RHRP | LHRP

It is with sadness that I must say that I have no expectation that Brian Roberts will ever be a meaningful part of the Baltimore Orioles on the field.  Effort must be given to replace him at second.  In this post, we will look at available free agent options and who the Orioles have internally.

For the purpose of this post, we are using the following groupings:

Elite: Greater than 4.5 WAR / 600 PA
Good: 3.5 to 4.5 WAR / 600 PA
Above Average: 2.5 to 3.5 WAR / 600 PA
Average: 1.5 to 2.5 WAR / 600 PA
Poor Starter: 0.75 to 1.5 WAR / 600 PA
Backup: Below 0.75 WAR / 600 PA

Jamey Carroll might be a good target.

No one below a projected 0.75 WAR should be offered anything more than a minor league contract with an invite to training camp.  The values were calculated by weighting performance of the past three seasons normalized each year to 600 PA.  This ranking does not consider injury status which will likely affect some players.

Good (3.5 - 4.5 WAR / 600 PA)
Kelly Johnson (3.5)
I have thought well of Johnson for a while, but no one seems to think of him as a good player.  I might be missing something.

Above Average (2.5 - 3.5 WAR / 600 PA)
Jamey Carroll (3.2)
Carroll is another second baseman who has flown under that radar.  He provides very good defense and simply gets on base.  He is not flashy whatsoever, but he does the little things well.
Nick Punto (3.2)
Punto has always had an amazing glove.  It gives him a great deal of value.  Much of his projection here has to do with his hitting performance this past season.  I think the projection is overly inflated.  I think he is a good example of using projection as a rough number that needs to be used with other tools.  Statistics alone, or any tool alone, is not a good way to make decisions.  That said, a metric rating a player higher than you expected sometimes gives you pause and reconsider the players' worth.  Personally, I think he very good year at the plate last year does not accurately portray his true talent level and skews the projection.
Jerry Hairston Jr. (2.6)
Hairston has a decent bat and he can still provide above average defense at second.  He has recently been used as a super-sub, but he really belongs at second.

Average (1.5 - 2.5 WAR / 600 PA)
Clint Barmes (2.2)
Barmes provides some power and excellent defense at second.  It made little sense for the Astros making him untouchable during the deadline, but he can produce.
Mark Ellis (2.1)
During the summer, Ellis was rumored as a player the Orioles were scouting thoroughly with plans of signing him in the off season.  Hopefully, it would be cheap if they do engage because he will be 35 and coming off a poor season.
Aaron Hill (1.8)
After two underwhelming seasons, Hill bounced back last year.  It looked like a last hurrah to me.

Below Average (0.75 - 1.5 WAR / 600 PA)
Adam Kennedy (1.2)
His projection is due almost entirely to his 2009 season.  Not a good indication.
Willie Bloomquist (1.1)
Bloomquist is a more athletic version of Cuddyer with a much lesser bat.  He plays several positions and none of them well.
Robert Andino (0.9)
Andino's value here may be below his true talent level after his solid performance last year.
Ryan Adams (0.8)
The bats plays at second, the glove does not.

The Rest (less than 0.75 WAR / 600 PA)
Craig Counsell (0.5), Aaron Miles (0.3), Jose Lopez (0.2), Felipe Lopez (0.2), Orlando Cabrera (-0.3), Bill Hall (-0.5), Alex Cora (-0.7), and Cesar Izturis (-1.9).

Free Agents - Third Base

This is the fourth of a series of posts on free agents.

C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | LF | CF | RF | DH | SP | RHRP | LHRP

Nick Punto might be an option.

If Mark Reynolds is vacating the hot corner, the team will need to replace him.  In this post, we will look at available free agent options and who the Orioles have internally.

For the purpose of this post, we are using the following groupings:

Elite: Greater than 4.5 WAR / 600 PA
Good: 3.5 to 4.5 WAR / 600 PA
Above Average: 2.5 to 3.5 WAR / 600 PA
Average: 1.5 to 2.5 WAR / 600 PA
Poor Starter: 0.75 to 1.5 WAR / 600 PA
Backup: Below 0.75 WAR / 600 PA

No one below a projected 0.75 WAR should be offered anything more than a minor league contract with an invite to training camp.  The values were calculated by weighting performance of the past three seasons normalized each year to 600 PA.  This ranking does not consider injury status which will likely affect some players.

Good (3.5 to 4.5 WAR / 600 PA)
Nick Punto (4.2)
This projection surprised me.  Defensively, Punto looks very good at third.  Just as with second base, his 2011 year at the plate also inflated his value.  Otherwise, he would be sitting around a WAR of 2.
Aramis Ramirez (4.2)
Ramirez' bat still looks strong.  At 34, he has a high probability of a precipitous decline offensively and he has never been a good defender at third.  He is likely to be the most sought after third baseman on the market.

Above Average (2.5 to 3.5 WAR / 600 PA)
Casey Blake (3.4)
Blake's shoulder injury and his age puts 2012 into question.  When healthy, he is a solid option at third base.
Wilson Betemit (3.0)
Betemit is a poor defender at third base, but he has put together two good campaigns at the plate these last couple seasons.
Mark Reynolds (2.9)
If Reynolds is merely bad defensively at third base instead of being gut wrenchingly awful, then he would be very good option there.

Average (1.5 to 2.5 WAR / 600 PA)
Kevin Kouzmanoff (1.7)
Kouzmanoff was always more glove than bat, but his offense has progressively disappeared over the past couple seasons.

Poor Starter (0.75 to 1.5 WAR / 600 PA)
Robert Andino (1.4)
Andino's defense plays better at third base than second base.  Still, Andino at third means you have exceptional offense elsewhere on the team.
Eric Chavez (1.3)
A bad back might prevent Chavez to get anywhere near 600 PA.
Jerry Hairston Jr. (1.1)
Hairston is passable at third due to his bat.  His glove is awful.

The Rest (less than 0.75 WAR / 600 PA)
Jose Lopez (0.7), Andy LaRoche (0.7), Craig Counsell (0.5), Greg Dobbs (0.4), Mark DeRosa (0.3), Omar Vizquel (0.2), Felipe Lopez (0.2), Chris Davis (0.0), Jorge Cantu (-0.9), and Josh Bell (-3.0).

Free Agents - First Base

This is the second of a series of posts on free agents.

C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | LF | CF | RF | DH | SP | RHRP | LHRP

David Ortiz might be a good value at first base.

Another area for improvement for the Orioles would be to upgrade at first base.  In these listings, I have also included several internal options in addition to free agents.  For the purpose of this post, we are using the following groupings:

Elite: Greater than 4.5 WAR / 600 PA
Good: 3.5 to 4.5 WAR / 600 PA
Above Average: 2.5 to 3.5 WAR / 600 PA
Average: 1.5 to 2.5 WAR / 600 PA
Poor Starter: 0.75 to 1.5 WAR / 600 PA
Backup: Below 0.75 WAR / 600 PA

No one below a projected 0.75 WAR should be offered anything more than a minor league contract with an invite to training camp.  The values were calculated by weighting performance of the past three seasons normalized each year to 600 PA.  This ranking does not consider injury status which will likely affect some players.

Elite (greater than 4.5 WAR / 600 PA)
Albert Pujols (6.9)
Pujols is arguably the best player in the game and is likely to pull in an 8 year, 200 MM deal.  This is likely to be beyond what the Orioles could afford.  In the near term, his presence can completely change a team with his elite offense and good defense.
Prince Fielder (5.7)
We mentioned earlier that Fielder is likely to be the better deal of the two.  He does not have Pujols profile, but he is a decent bet to give back value on his contract.  There are some concerns about his body type as people remember Mo Vaughn, but David Ortiz has aged somewhat well.

Good (3.5 - 4.5 WAR / 600 PA)
David Ortiz (3.5)
Speaking of David Ortiz, this might seem a little peculiar.  Ortiz is not a first baseman, but he does have a solid bat.  If we assume he costs a team 15 runs as a first base man, he still projects as being worth 3.5 WAR / 600 PA.  At 36 years old, he certainly is a candidate to see his performance collapse.

Above Average (2.5 - 3.5 WAR / 600 PA)
Derrek Lee (2.9)
The Orioles were quite underwhelmed with Lee's performance last year.  However, in Pittsburgh his offense blew up and he finished the year strong.  He could reward someone who takes a chance on him.
Carlos Pena (2.8)
Pena seems to be underrated by many.  He has a solid bat and is a solid defender at first base.  Chicago will probably look in a different direction for first base this year.  A team might be able to sign him to a short term deal for under 10 MM.
Nick Markakis (2.6)
Markakis played first a few times last year and, according to this system, is currently the Orioles' best option at first base.  However, he is more valuable in right field.

Average (1.5 - 2.5 WAR / 600 PA)
Michael Cuddyer (2.2)
Cuddyer can play several positions while playing none of them particularly well.  That versatility is valuable, but it appears to me that he is somewhat overvalued for his versatility.
Mark Reynolds (2.1)
If Reynolds is truly a -30 run defender at third, then he has to move off the hot corner.  If he is more in line with his career line of -10, then he probably should head back to third base.  He would provide decent production here, but he would not be special.
Luke Scott (1.9)
Scott's year last year caused his value to take a dive.  If last year was the result of several injuries that do not affect his 2012 season, then he could potentially be the best option at first.
Eric Hinske (1.7)
Hinske followed two solid seasons with a poor one last year.  It is always difficult to expect a bounce back season from a 34 year old who is better utilized as a platoon player.
Casey Kotchman (1.6)
How much do you believe in Kotchman's awful 2010 season?  How much do you believe in his outstanding 2011 season?  A good bit of his worth is also tied up into his glove.

Poor Starter (0.75 - 1.5 WAR / 600 PA)
Russell Branyan (1.4)
Branyan had a poor season last year and is also a bit of a platoon player.  I would not be too sold on him.
Lyle Overbay (1.3)
Overbay has been on a downward trend the last few years.
Brad Hawpe (1.2)
Hawpe is not the guy he used to be.  His performance has collapsed.
Juan Rivera (1.2)
Rivera has some value for a team who wants a contact oriented power bat off the bench.  Beyond that, I don't see much value here.
Nolan Reimold (0.8)
Reimold's 2010 hurts his value here.  If you believe in what he did last year, then he looks like a 1.7 WAR player at first base.  He could be passable, but you need to get more production out of other positions if this is to be a first division team.


The Rest (less than 0.75 WAR)
Mark Kotsay (0.7), Ross Gload (0.4), Xavier Nady (-0.2), Chris Davis (-0.3), and Jorge Cantu (-1.3).

Conclusion
If the Orioles are to go big then putting money down on Fielder makes more sense to me than Pujols for the reasons I spelled out in a previous post.  If the next tier of talent is considered, I would target a one or two year deal for Pena or Ortiz.  Beyond that, I would place Mark Reynolds at first base.

Free Agents - Backup Catcher

This is the second of a series of posts on free agents.

C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | LF | CF | RF | DH | SP | RHRP | LHRP

Ramon Castro would be a fine backup catcher

A place where the Orioles could gain a minor improvement would be back up catcher.  John Hester (AAA - 674 OPS) and Caleb Joseph (AA - 692 OPS) do not look like options that would result is anything above replacement value.  Therefore, options have to come from outside the organization.  For the purpose of this post, we are considering anything above 0.6 WAR / 150 PA as starting catcher material and anything above 0.4 WAR / 150 PA as a good backup catcher.  We would not consider anything below 0.2 WAR / 150 PA.  The values were calculated by weighting performance of the past three seasons normalized each year to 150 PA.

Potential Starters (better than 0.6 WAR / 150 PA)
Ramon Hernandez (0.79)
Hernandez will want a situation where he will see 300 or more plate appearances.  That would not be with Baltimore.
Henry Blanco (0.98)
Blanco could be considered as a starting catcher option for a team in need.  However, he has never been used as a starter his last three years.
Ramon Castro (0.91)
Castro has also shown quite a lot of value in backup catcher time.  He could be seen as a starter by some teams.  He may also prefer to go to a situation with a weak starting catcher.
Jose Molina (0.71)
Molina has also not been considered a starter in his past three seasons even though he has performed quite well during that time.
Ryan Doumit (0.68)
A somewhat poor defensive catcher with a decent bat.  He would also be able to back up other positions on the field.  After a solid 2011 season, he may be looking for a situation to start.

Good Backups (between 0.4 and 0.6)
Chris Snyder (0.59)
Snyder has been seen as a starting catcher at times over the past three years.  He really is not one.  He might be looking for a situation to become a starter.
Kelly Shoppach (0.54)
Shoppach has been used as a part timer with Tampa.  He is a solid backup and may be an option.
Rod Barajas (0.45)
Barajas has been used as the primary starter in split catching squads.  He is likely to look for weak catching teams.

Poor Backups - MiL Contract with camp invite (between 0.2 and 0.4)
Jason Varitek (0.39)
He is not coming to Baltimore.
Ivan Rodriguez (0.36)
Teams will likely overpay for him and those teams will likely have a weak catching squad.
Jason Kendall (0.31)
Kendall will not go to a team with a strong starting catcher.  He has never been a backup.
Matt Treanor (0.22)
He could be a rather cheap option

AAA Signings
Rob Johnson, Josh Bard, Dioner Navarro, Brian Schneider, and Gerald Laird.


Conclusion
I would offer a 2.5 MM contract to any of the players in the first tier with a 0.5 MM buyout on a 3 MM option.  I would lean toward Ryan Doumit because of his offensive capabilities as a pinch hitter.  Doumit made 5.2 MM last year, so he may not be eager to take a 3 MM guaranteed.  Jose Molina, Ramon Castro, or Henry Blanco would also be good choices.  None of them were paid more than 1.2 MM last year.  The Orioles would be likely to grab any of them for far less than they are likely worth.

The New Moneyball: Paying Players Lots of Money?

Yu Darvish

An assumption I have made in the past may not exactly be completely accurate.  I was thinking last week about Yu Darvish and how much he would be worth on the open market.  I casually increased price per win because I think the economy is rebounding (arguable) and that scarcity causes elite players to be paid at a higher rate.  The first assumption is one that is beyond me.  If I was in tune enough to properly predict the market, I would probably own my own team by now.  The second assumption I can test in a slightly less casual way.

I decided to compare cost per win of free agents in general against cost per win of elite free agents.  I calculated average cost per win by back calculating fWAR and the value attributed to it.  I then produced a weighted average for the performance of elite free agents over the three years prior to free agency.  Elite players were defined as players who have received contracts in excess of 100MM in the free market from 2007 until now.  Here is the list:

2007 (average 4.09 MM / Win; elite 5.86 MM / Win)
Carlos Lee - 6/100MM (5.85 MM / Win; +43%)
Barry Zito - 7/126MM (6.97 MM / Win; +70%)
Alfonso Soriano - 8/138MM (4.77 MM / Win; +17%)

2008 (average 4.47 MM / Win)
Alex Rodriguez - 10/275MM (3.5 MM / Win; -22%)

2009 (average 4.42 MM / Win; elite 3.62 MM / Win)
Mark Teixeira - 8/180MM (3.99 MM / Win; -10%)
CC Sabathia - 7/161MM (3.25MM / Win; -27%)

2010 (4.10 MM / Win)
Matt Holliday - 7/120MM (2.79 MM / Win; -32%)

2011 (average 4.53 MM / Win; elite 3.39 MM / Win)
Cliff Lee - 5/120MM (3.43 MM / Win; -24%)
Carl Crawford - 7/142MM (3.25 MM / Win; -28%)
Jayson Werth - 7/127MM (3.5 MM / Win; -23%)

Based on this data and a quick overview of the years before 2007, it appears that prior to 2008 that elite players were paid about 30-40% above market rate for wins.  From 2008 and onward, elite players are now paid 24% less than market rate for wins.

Are elite players undervalued?
I don't think so.  I think what this list might show is that the thinking change for a large number of teams around 2007-2008.  Revenue streams were drying up which limited the number of teams able to spend top dollar for players, but also, I think, there is a greater understanding of player aging.

How does this affect the project value I threw out for Yu Darvish?
If his pitching the past three years translates as a 3.50 ERA over 200 IP / year, he is worth about 4.4 WAR per year.  With a 24% decrease in cost per win, we are looking at him being worth 75MM over five years if he was a free agent.  If you believe in the prediction from the translation model (2.97 ERA), then you are looking at a five year worth of 102MM with the elite reduction applied.

With Reynolds in left and Fielder at first, O's improve by 12 games

Mark Reynolds had a very good year at the plate.  He hit 37 home runs, helping himself to a .483 slugging percentage and he walked 12.1% of the time that counteracted his low batting average.  It was in fact his second best offensive year in his career worth about 31 runs over a replacement third baseman.  However, his defense nearly negated his offensive worth.

Defensive Metric          1B (375.2 inn)      3B (984.1 inn)    proj 3B (1360 inn)   
UZR                                   -5.3 runs              -22.8 runs               -31.5 runs
Total Zone                          -6                        -18                           -25
DRS                                    -4                        -29                           -40

I typically like to have about 3000 innings to determine how well a player performs at an infield position.  If you include his season last year, you will wind up with about -15 to -20 runs.  Reynolds at his best provides about 30 runs above replacement level and with that level of defensive ineptitude, it is difficult to match what is passable for an average player (+20 runs above replacement).

However, the Orioles have the ability to make him a more valuable player.  By switching him to another position, his glove may not be as much of a hindrance on the team.  The Orioles did that by playing Reynolds at first base about 30% of the time.  With time, I think it is not unthinkable that Reynolds could be an average first baseman defensively.  That alone would save the team three wins assuming that his replacement at third base is average defensively and provides the same offense from first base that Reynolds in replacing (Derrek Lee's 706 OPS).

A shift to first base and maintaining his offensive production does not make Mark Reynolds a 3.1 WAR player because it is far easier to find offensive production at first than it is at third.  Due to this shift in expected offensive production for a replacement player, Reynolds' worth would actually be 1.8 wins above replacement, 1.3 wins less than if he was at third.  If you put him in as a DH, that value is 1.2 wins above replacement.  As a 3B, 1B, or DH, Reynolds is not an average player (~2 wins above replacement).

Reynolds would rate as an average or above player if he was capable of playing an average left field.  He has played three innings in the Majors, twenty three games in the Minors, and, as far as I can tell, he did not log any notable time in the outfield during college.  Reynolds should have the tools to play left field though.  He has good speed for a big man.  He has swiped over twenty bases during a season and collects a couple triples every year.  He also has a strong arm.  Although he has not logged any significant time out there, I think it could be a position he could handle.  In that case, he would be worth 2.3 wins above replacement.  These numbers should not be treated as guarantees, but the take home point is that Reynolds likely has a better chance of being useful as a LF than as a 1B, 3B, or DH.

Of course, these values rely on an abstract situation.  A major issue is to figure out who exactly would be playing at 1B, 3B, LF, and DH.  I will go through a few options for each position and then can determine which would be the best mix.

1B
Reynolds (1.8 WAR; 7.5 MM), Prince Fielder (5.0; 20),
Chris Davis (0.5; 0.4), Carlos Pena (2.6; 10)
3B
Reynolds (0.3 WAR; 7.5 MM), Aramis Ramirez (2.5; 15),
Robert Andino (1.0; 1), Marco Scutaro (2.8; 6)
DH
Reynolds (1.2 WAR; 7.5 MM), Jason Kubel (1.5; 5),
Luke Scott (2.0; 6.4), Nolan Reimold (1.2; 0.5)
LF
Reynolds (2.3 WAR; 7.5 MM), Michael Cuddyer (2.5; 10),
Scott (2.6; 6.4), Reimold (1.8; 0.5)

It is easy to see that if Marco Scutaro makes it to free agency, that he might be best suited for the Orioles.  There is doubt that the Red Sox will tender him a contract.  It might make sense to offer them something in a deal for him.  Scutaro actually has a decent amount of worth and has experience at third base.  The rest is a bit of mix and match.  The most reasonable set up would be to have Reynolds in left and Pena at first with Scott and Reimold working with the DH spot and Reimold backing up left and right field.  Adding Fielder in lieu of Pena, gives the team 2-3 more wins.

The most accomplished squad would deliver about 12 WAR.  Last year, the O's managed approximately 0.7 WAR total from those positions.  You read that right.  This team can go from a high 60s team to a low 80s team by merely adding Prince Fielder and Marco Scutaro in place of Derrek Lee and Mark Reynolds, shifting players around, and Scott getting healthy.

That is stunning to me.