Cup of jO's - MiL Pitcher Signings

Yesterday we quickly went over MiL position player signings.  Today we review the pitchers.

Right Handed Pitchers
Winston Abreu (34) - excellent AAAA reliever
Brandon Erbe (24) - resigned with Orioles, hope to bring back value in the pen
Willie Eyre (33) - resigned with Orioles, provides organizational depth
Armando Galarraga (30) - nearly threw a perfect game, was never much of a pitcher
Robert Hinton (27) - career spent in the Milwaukee system, need to repeat AA several times
Jon Link (27) - another high strikeout AAA pitcher
Pat Neshek (31) - was an excellent pitcher in the Twins system before hurting his arm
Kyler Newby (26) - swing starter in Arizona system, another high strikeout arm
Raul Rivero (25) - resigned with Orioles, long time low minors pitcher
Miguel Socolovich (25) - live arm, signed from the ChiSox system
Oscar Villarreal (30) - has flashed usefulness in the Majors
Ross Wolf (29) - Returning back to the Oriole organization, experienced AAA arm

Left Handed Pitchers
Ryan Edell (28) - varying success as a swingman, control pitcher
Chris George (32) - resigned with Orioles, once a highly touted prospect, now AAA depth
Dennys Reyes (34) - MiL spring invite, frontline reliever from 2006-2010
Will Startup (27) - resigned with Orioles, left handed minor league depth

2012 Projected Payrolls for MLB

2012 Projected Payrolls from Yahoo.

Jorge Arangure Jr. on the Orioles' International Effort

A little less than a year ago I read an article Jorge Arangure, Jr. wrote on Andres Reiner and his role in helping the Tampa Bay Rays establish themselves in Brazil.  What struck me most about the article was this passage:

Even harder to believe is that the Rays have so far spent zero dollars on the construction of the academy [in Brazil near San Paulo].  The 2.5MM project has been subsidized by both federal and local funds.  Tampa Bay's only financial commitment is for the upkeep of the academy, which could be anywhere from 500k to 1MM per year, for the next five years.  Tampa Bay won't even have to spend a dime on players' medical care since all Brazilians are covered through the country's universal health care system.

I do not believe the Orioles have established an academy in any country other than the Dominican Republic.

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In light of Dan Duquette's effort in acquiring international talent, I decided to ask a few writers, well-versed in these areas, to share some of their thoughts.  Yesterday, I posted an interview with Yoo Jee-ho on the recent troubles experienced by the Orioles when they signed an amateur without informing Korea's amateur governing body, the Korean Baseball Association.

Today, we have the writer mentioned in the short excerpt above, Jorge Arangure, Jr.  He currently is on ESPN's international soccer coverage, but was on the international baseball circuit before then and still dabbles on that subject.  Those with with a steel trap for a memory will recognize him as a former baseball writer for the Washington Post covering the Orioles.

Jon Shepherd: What do the Orioles need to do to make it have a dependable international presence and how long does it realistically take to accomplish that?

Jorge Arangure Jr.: For one, they need to have consistent leadership in that area. For a few years now, they've shuffled around several people with little success. The Fred Ferreira hire probably solves that problem, but you have to wonder whether Ferreira is so far removed from the current Latin American scene that it ends up hurting the team's efforts rather than helping them. A lot has changed in how players are signed in Latin America since the days when Ferreira first stepped foot on the island.

One thing you can't do is simply spend to make the proverbial "statement." I don't think that really works. Several teams have done it and not accomplished anything out of it. What I'd do is increase the team's scouting presence in the DR. For a while, the Orioles have relied on the same group of scouts in the area. That has to change.

I still have my doubts as to whether Peter Angelos really believes in that market. The Orioles have never signed a high-profile, big-name international player. I'm just not sure Angelos likes the risk that comes with that market.

JS: Andres Reiner provided the acclaimed model for acquiring talent out of an emerging market by establishing an academy in Venezuela for the Astros.  Upon leaving the Astros, he set the foundation of a similar plan for the Rays to find useful players in Brazil.  So far, the Orioles appear to be taking a different path by holding try outs and plucking players who perform well.  For a team that is not incredibly cash flush, which approach makes more sense for them?

JA: Well I'd argue with the point that the Orioles aren't flush with cash. I think they are a pretty good revenue team. They simply choose not to spend it in the Latin America area. Having said that, I believe the Orioles have enough money to try both methods. I'd say the Rays vision for Brazil is highly ambitious. It takes a very organized team to pull it off. Everything we know suggests the Rays are that type of team. Everything we know about the Orioles suggests they are not.

JS: The Orioles have been involved in a fiasco by signing a Korean high school player without notifying the country's ruling body.  Why do you think this event has caused more of an uproar than when the Red Sox signed Junichi Tazawa from NPB?

JA: Most importantly, you're talking about two different countries. Tazawa is Japanese, so that's an entirely different baseball federation. The problem is that the Orioles either (a.) Didn't know the rules in Korea, which is troubling in itself because it could suggest that Duquette and the older scouts he's hired will have some catching up to do in regards to learning the regulations of each country, which could essentially back track their hunt for international talent; or (b.) they knowingly broke the rules, which of course is troublesome for all other sorts of reasons.

The Red Sox asked for and received permission from the Japanese baseball federation to sign Tazawa after he had graduated. Not only did the Orioles not ask permission, they also signed a player who had not yet graduated from high school, which is a big misstep.

JS: Do you think the prospects and their families potentially think poorly of the Orioles organization, limiting opportunities for the team to acquire talent in the future?  Have there been comparable events that happened in Latin America?

JA: I'm not sure this fiasco really hurts the Orioles in the eyes of the players themselves, but it makes them targets in the eyes of the baseball federations. The positive for the Orioles is that this type of system really only exists in Asia. Teams don't have to deal with baseball federations in Latin America.

JS: Based on your knowledge, who is doing the best job attracting and developing international talent?  What is this team doing that is so special and remarkable?

JA: I'd say the Rangers are probably at the top of the list. No team spends as much money as they do. But not only are they financially committed to Latin America, they also have the most manpower in the area. It's rare when I make a trip to Latin America and don't see a Rangers scout at a workout. It's rare when I'm in Latin America and I don't see one of their top execs there. They spend the money, but they do so after having done the work.

An Interview with Yoo Jee-ho About the Orioles and South Korea

Sajik Stadium in Busan

If you have been following the Orioles' signing Kim Seong-Min and that signings' aftermath, you know the name of Yoo Jee-ho.  He has been reporting for Yonhap News Agency on how the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO), the governing body of two professional leagues in South Korea, and the Korean Baseball Association, the governing body of amateur baseball in South Korea, have reacted to the Orioles not abiding to the agreement in place for MLB teams to sign amateur talent.

Jon Shepherd: How much of a presence does Major League Baseball have in South Korea?

Yoo Jee-ho: A few teams have been sending scouts to Korean high school and college (or university as we’d like to call it here) tournaments in recent years. Some are based in Korea or others may be stationed somewhere in Asia and travel here for some big tournaments. More young players have signed with big league clubs in the last two, three years than in the past (almost a dozen since 2009).

As far as helping KBO developing baseball programs, I am not aware of any MLB involvement in that regard. I personally don’t see it as something MLB absolutely has to do here. But critics of MLB teams’ signing young Korean prospects may feel differently.

JS: Are certain teams viewed more favorably than others by players and families?

YJ: I am not sure if any one particular team is more favored than others by players and parents. But I’d imagine it’s probably the same with kids in other countries dreaming of playing in the majors.  They would all want to play for the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, or other storied ball clubs. Would young players take less money to play for, say, the Yankees, rather than for the Pirates? I doubt it, and it’s not just the money. I think these players will take any opportunity that they can get to join a major league team and have a chance to play in the big leagues someday. 

JS: Can you briefly explain what has transpired between KBO, KBA, and the Baltimore Orioles?

YJ: It really is a long story and I will try to make it short. 

The Orioles signed Kim Seong-min to a minor league deal in January. The KBO, which runs the top baseball league here, claimed that the O’s didn’t go through the “status check” as detailed under the KBO-MLB player contract agreement. An MLB team interested in a Korean amateur or pro must, through MLB commissioner’s office, “check” that player’s status and availability with the KBO.
 

If I may digress a bit and delve a little deeper into this, MLB teams, following the status check, must receive KBO’s approval to sign an active professional player here. But they can sign amateur players as long as they go through the status check. And even KBO officials say status checks are just a formality.  With pros, KBO can say, “Nope, you can’t talk to this guy because he’s under contract and his current team doesn’t want to let him go.” But with amateurs, the most KBO can tell an interested MLB club is, “He will be eligible for the KBO draft next year. We hope you don’t engage this player.” But that doesn’t prevent the MLB team from signing him.  Against this backdrop, the KBO now wants to tweak the agreement to ban MLB clubs from signing amateur players at all.

 

Back to the situation. The KBA, which is the local baseball governing body, has suspended Kim indefinitely from playing or coaching in Korea, and that was in accordance with a local rule. Underclassmen (student-athletes not currently in the final year of their study, at high school or college) must not contact domestic or foreign professional teams. In Korea, a new school year starts in March. Kim was just about to enter his senior year in high school.

The KBA also banned Orioles’ scouts from attending KBA-sanctioned games, such as national high school and college tournaments. It has also warned that other MLB teams that fail to take proper steps in their dealing with prospects will have their scouts banned from Korean games.

I think this will definitely affect MLB’s relationship with KBO and with Korea as a whole. Other teams must have taken notice of this development. KBO and KBA obviously have their own interests, but I think they have taken steps that will likely be seen as being too restrictive.

JS: In your opinion, what changes to the existing agreement between KBO and MLB would be best for the development of baseball as a professional sport in South Korea?

YJ: I don’t think banning MLB teams from signing Korean amateurs is the answer. MLB wouldn’t agree to this sort of change anyway.

 

Here’s the one change that I think may work.  When a player is drafted by a KBO team out of high school, the player has a one-month window to choose between going to college or signing with the KBO team. In my opinion, you can allow MLB teams to engage and possibly sign such players after that one-month period ends. Tampering will have to be prohibited, of course.  KBO teams will reserve the priority to negotiate and sign such players. So MLB teams will be looking at either a KBO rookie or a college freshman to sign.

It’d be easy for big league clubs to lure top talent by coming in with loads of cash, right? Not so fast. Not every teenage player will want to go overseas to play for different reasons (fear of culture shock, language problems, simply wanting to stay home close to family, etc). Plus, top young guns get six figures in signing bonus from KBO teams and MLB teams may or may not want to match that to take them.  In other words, if the money is right and they’d rather stay home, more Korean players than you’d think will choose to stay with the KBO.

This bit of change will mean a limited window for MLB teams to sign. But I think it will work both ways because a) young players, having already been drafted, will have a KBO team to fall back on if talks with MLB teams don’t go well and b) MLB teams will have a better idea of how much they want to pay players given their draft position (i.e. Should we pay this kid $500,000 when he was only drafted 10^th overall in Korea? Should we spend that money on some other prospect from elsewhere?)

JS: There has been some debate in the United States as to how good of a player Kim Seong-Min is. Do you have any information on his abilities? 

YJ: He had an excellent 2011. Kim pitched 74 2/3 innings in 21 games, won eight games, and posted an ERA of 1.39. In August, at a national high school tournament, Kim went 3-0 with a zero ERA and 19 Ks in 22 innings to win the MVP.

 

Kim was considered the top lefty in high schools over here and since he had another high school season ahead of him (before the Baltimore deal), local scouts felt that Kim could improve even more and eventually become a first-round draft choice in the KBO.  His fastball tops out at about 89-90 miles per hour, and he also throws above-average changeup and curve. Obviously not overpowering, but he’s got decent command. Any left-hander with his upside and stuff is a valued commodity here, but I myself was surprised to see him snatched up by a major league team. Maybe the O’s scouts saw something in him.

JS: Will this incident affect the Orioles ability to sign premier players from South Korea?

YJ: For the foreseeable future, absolutely. (Poor Dan Duquette. The guy loves Korean players.) Their scouts are banned from going to Korean games and that will obviously limit their ability to assess talent here. Duquette has apologized for “unintentional breach of protocol” but I don’t think the KBO is that much interested in apologies. Rather, the KBO wants to change the agreement to at least limit the outflow of young talent from here. In a way, the O’s move may affect all MLB teams’ ability to scout and sign premier young talent in Korea.

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To stay on top of the Kim Seung-min situation and Korean baseball in general, follow Yoo Jee-ho on twitter and at Yonhap News. 

Cup of jO's - MiL Position Players Signings

Here is a quick rundown of the MiL position players the Orioles signed this off season.

Catchers
Zach Booker (26) - Has played six games in three years.  He literally is a player-coach.
Allan De San Miguel (24) - An Aussie who has spent his entire career with the Twins.  Organizational.
Ronny Paulino (30) - First time in six years that he knows he is heading to AAA.
Dane Sardinha (32) - This is likely his ninth straight year in AAA.

First Basemen
Nick Johnson (33) - One of the best hitting prospects in the last 15 years, injuries derailed career. Overcoming wrist injury.
Jeff Larish (30) - Strong AAA bat that silences in the Majors.

Second Basemen
Travis Adair (24) - Show a good bat in high A, but struggled mightily in AA and cut by Texas.

Shortstop
Carlos Rojas (28) - Spent last four years in Orioles organization providing AA and AAA depth.
Steve Tolleson (28) - Solid utility bat who will likely appear in Baltimore at some point this year.

Third Basemen
Matt Antonelli (26) - A once promising prospect, Antonelli signed a MLB deal thanks to his MiL OBP.

Outfielders
Scott Beerer (29) - Pitcher turned hitter due to arm issues, shows some contact and power skills.
Antoan Richardson (28) - Plus speed and decent OBP skills.

What does Manny Ramirez offer the Orioles?

Watching Manny hit his 500th HR off Chad Bradford

Manny's path has never appeared to make sense to others, but that path has been suggested as perhaps leading through Baltimore.  This has resulted in the expected gnashing of teeth.  Acquiring Manny would seem familiar with the moves the Orioles have made in the last decade, such as picking over the remains of Sammy Sosa, the second coming of Raffy, and Vladimir Guerrero.  All have had Hall of Fame quality careers, but there is not much reason to have thought any of them would be a game changer.  Additionally, Manny is Manny.  His actions often appear incredibly self-centered and aloof, such as the story of how he once left a game early, took all of the Dominican style food a teammate's mother had made for the team and then replaced it with Italian takeout.  That is a weird and wonderful story.  You could also go with the whole him refusing to play in 2007.  At first look, there does not seem to be much for the Orioles to be interested in him.

Performance Issues

Fifteen players since 1972 have played as designated hitters during their age 40 season with over 100 plate appearances.  They break into four easy categories.

Good
Dave Winfield (1992) - 3.7 rWAR
Edgar Martinez (2003) - 3.5 rWAR

Average
Brian Downing (1991) - 2.5 rWAR
Harold Baines (1999) - 2.3 rWAR

Role Player
Jim Thome (2011) - 1.4 rWAR
Paul Molitor (1997) - 1.4 rWAR
Reggie Jackson (1986) - 1.3 rWAR

Replacement Level and Below
Tony Perez (1982) - 0.3 rWAR
Frank Thomas (2008) - 0.0 rWAR
George Brett (1993) - -0.4 rWAR
Matt Stairs (2008) - -0.7 rWAR
Ken Griffey Jr (2010) - -0.8 rWAR
Eddie Murray (1998) - -0.8 rWAR
Hal McRae (1986) - -0.9 rWAR
Dave Parker (1991) - -1.4rWAR

What differs Manny from these players is that he did not see any significant time during his age 39 season with only 17 plate appearances over five games.  In fact, it is actually quite rare for any starting caliber player at 1B, LF, RF, or DH to log in less than 50 plate appearances in one season and then come back for another.  Since 1991, it has happened twice for players in their 30s.  Darren Daulton lost his 1996 season to injury.  His OPS+ in 1995 was 101 and it rose to 121 in 1997, which was his final season.  Xavier Nady is the other occurrence.  He slugged a 127 OPS+ in 2008 for the Pirates and Yankees, lost 2009 to injury, and then hit at a 75 OPS+ clip for the ChiSox in 2010.  That is a sample size of two with one doing quite well and the retiring while the other probably should be retired.  However, it should be mentioned that most players in their 30s who log less than 50 at bats do not come back the following year.

From the older player who missed a year perspective, Manny does not look like a good buy.  ZIPS projects Manny as a 241/342/363 hitter.  If such a hitter was able to spend a full 695 plate appearances at that level as a DH, he would have earned near a replacement level with a 0.5 WAR.  That is an upgrade from Vlad's 0.1 WAR over 591 plate appearances and 7.6MM.  Manny's last full three seasons also show some reason for concern when looking at isolated power (ISO):

2008: .270
2009: .241
2010: .162

That free fall is slightly worse than pre-Oriole Garrett Atkins (.185->.165->.116).  Anecdotally, I have rarely seen a three season free fall in ISO turn around 180 degrees.

With this performance history it is difficult to see how a team could offer anything more than a Minor League invite without any promises.  The Tampa Bay Rays looked at the same data set, minus the extra year of aging and not playing, and only gave Manny a 2MM MLB contract.  They apparently were the only ones interested in promising him a full salary.  Tampa Bay also did not have knowledge of the events that would transpire during the 2012 season.

The Suspension and Then it Got Worse

Most players in their 30s who play very little have injuries or performance issues as the cause for the reduction in playing time.  Manny's issue was for testing positive for an unnamed (as far as I am aware) performance enhancing drug.  It was the second time he had tested positive for a banned substance.  He had served a 50 game suspension with the Dodgers in 2009.  This being the second time, he was to serve 100 days.  Instead of serving that time, Manny retired and fled the lime light.  As it was reported, Manny's desire to evade any uncomfortable situations struck his teammates, the media, and the fans as him being extremely selfish and immature.  It is the meme that has followed him throughout his playing career. 

It got worse in September.  Police in Weston, Florida were called to Manny's home.  His wife had called and claimed that they were having an argument.  That argument resulted in allegedly slapping her, causing her to fall and hit her head on the headboard of their bed.  Upon arrival, she told the deputy that she called the police because she feared the situation would escalate.  Manny was arrested on the charge of domestic battery.  He entered a not guilty plea at a hearing in October.  His next court date is schedule March 28.

Conclusion
The Orioles do not have much to gain or lose here.  Manny could come to Spring Training, go to court at the end, and do whatever he may plea to while serving out a 50 game suspension (MLB and MLBPA compromise) as technically a minor leaguer.  He would then spend a couple weeks in the minors trying to work off the rust.  You could expect him in an Oriole uniform in mid-June.  That would give him six weeks to show off any hitting ability that could reward the Orioles with a fringe prospect.  Again, the best case scenario is that Manny plays six weeks, earns about 300-500k, and nets you a fringe prospect.  The worst case scenario is that Manny is awful, but stays on the straight and narrow.  This would force the Orioles to cut him and swallow 1-1.5MM.

Signing Manny should not cause a gnashing of teeth.  This move would be a far cry from MacPhail's eagerness to send replacement level veterans off with a retirement package.  However, I do not see much point in signing a 40 year old who took off last season, is in a downward trajectory, has alienated many of his previous teammates, and has an open court case on the charges of domestic battery.  

Orioles sign Jeff Larish

According to a tweet from Oakland Athletics beat reporter Jane Lee, former A's first basemen and DH, Jeff Larish, 29 years old, has signed a minor league deal with the Baltimore Orioles.

Larish, who hasn't played in the majors since 2010, has batted a career .224/.308/.380 with  in three seasons with the Detroit Tigers and the A's. 

Lee mentioned in her tweet that Larish announced his signing with the Orioles via his Facebook page.

Editor - 
He has played 331 games at AAA with a slash of 269/359/475.  Last year, Larish played half a season at Lehigh, the AAA affiliate for the Phillies.  In July 2011, Larish broke his leg and tore several ligaments in his ankle while trying to score from second.

Circle the Bases with Peace

Here at Camden Depot we understand during the week you are busy with work, school, taking the kids to hockey practice, or just don't have time to get to a computer. So at the end of each week we will do a recap  and update of the latest Orioles news items.

Early in the week the Orioles went out and addressed their DH position by signing switch hitting utility infielder Wilson Betemit to a multi year deal. As a result of the move the Orioles DFA'd relief pitcher Rick Vandenhurk to make room for Betemit on the 40-man roster.

The Orioles avoided arbitration with utility infielder Robert Andino and signed the Red Sox slayer to a one year deal.

The ball club announced the minor league coaching staffs of all seven Oriole affiliates. Ron Johnson from the Red Sox organization will be the manager of the Norfolk Tides. Johnson as a minor league manager has a record of 1,261-1,262 in 18 seasons. Pitching coach Mike Griffin is back with the Tides for his fifth consecutive season in the organization. Hitting coach will be Denny Walling who was a roving instructor for six seasons. Mike Shires will be the athletic trainer.

Former Tides manager Gary Allenson has been sent down to manage the short-season Class A squad the Aberdeen Ironbirds. Allenson spent five seasons as the skipper for the Tides. The Ironbirds bring in a blast from the past as former Orioles pitcher Alan Mills will be the pitching coach. (Good thing Darryl Strawberry doesn't manage in the Penn League.)

The Bowie Baysox skipper Gary Kendall  is back for his second season and his 13th in the system. Field coach Denny Hockling, pitching coach Kennie Steenstra and trainer Aaron Scott will be back for the Baysox.

Class A Frederick and Delmarva return both managers Orlando Gomez and Ryan Minor for their third consecutive seasons.

The Gulf Coast League Orioles return Ramon Sambo for his fifth season as the GCL Birds manager. nd finally Elvis Morel will manage the Dominican Summer League squad.

MASN's Roch Kubatko reported this week that the Orioles will send several representatives from the organization down to the Dominican Republic next week to watch Cuban star outfielder Yoenis Cespedes play. The report also mentioned the O's will take a look at the other Cuban star Jorge Soler.

Kubatko also announced the Orioles signed 18 year old Guatemalan outfielder Andres Aguilar.

And Finally, reports came out this week from local and national reporters that the Orioles would be willing to offer a multi-year deal to free agent starting pitcher Edwin Jackson. Baltimore Sun beat writer Eduardo Encina tweeted on Saturday the O's probably wouldn't go four years with Jackson but would opt to do a three year deal with an option. Jackson, 28, went 12-9 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.44 WHIP last season between the White Sox and the Cardinals.

P.S. Baltimore Orioles Hall of Fame third baseman Brooks Robinson sustained a fractured clavicle Friday night when he fell from a stage at a benefit at the Seminole Hotel and Casino in Hollywood, Fla. Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post reported the story. Robinson was accepting an award where he fell backwards, six feet to the ground. The report says Robinson was scheduled to attend a charity game today benefiting the Joe DiMaggio Children's Hospital but spent the night in the hospital.

O's Kim Sung-min in Dan Duquette's version of Rashomon

Kim Tebow

Kim Sung-min was signed by the Orioles.  That is pretty much all we know for sure.  In an apparent ode to Kurosawa's Rashomon we have a South Korean paper, a Baltimore Sun beat reporter, and a national baseball talent writer giving somewhat different accounts of the player.

South Korean Paper
I do not read Korean and the Google translator is confused by a few words.  I assume "maximum strength fat guts" means something equivalent to having nerves of steel.  I don't know.  What we can glean from the article is the outline of a pretty impressive talent.  Sung-min is a high school left handed pitcher who has a 89.5 mph fastball.  He also has a curve and a "remarkable" circle change.  He is listed as 5'10.5 and weighing in at 181 lbs.  There is no information on the financials.

The Baltimore Beat
The Sun's Eduardo Encina talked to a team source and came up with the following pitcher.  Sung-min at 17 is the best left handed high school pitching prospect in South Korea (which is similar to being the best high school left handed pitching prospect in Rhode Island--that can be quite good and it could be quite poor).  He is 5'10 and 180 lbs with a high 80s fastball, an above average 12-to-6 curveball, and an above average change up.  They expect him to become 6'1.  These pitches are expected to progress as he ages (this means that all three pitches will be plus pitches).  He will play a few weeks at the academy in Los Angeles before heading over to the Orioles' facility in Florida.

The National Writer
Keith Law reminds me of Frau Blücher.  You mention his name in the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area and you will surely hear some snorting and gnashing of teeth.  That certainly was the case when the following was written from his twitter account:

The O's gave $550K to a 5'9" Korean HS lefty throwing 80-83 with no feel for a breaking ball. Nice use of savings from cutting pro scouting.

 With respect to the Orioles projection of Sung-min growing a few more inches, Law wrote in a chat:

Predicting body development is a big part of scouts' jobs, although it's usually about a frame filling out more than a player growing three freaking inches after his 18th birthday, which is pretty rare. A scout would also want to meet the parents and see how tall they are, how broad, how heavy, etc. I'm much more comfortable looking at a 17-year-old Tyler Skaggs and telling you he'll add velocity because he's tall and thin with broad shoulders rather than looking at a 17-year-old Jarrod Parker and telling you he'll grow from 6' to 6'3" because I like his fastball.

I agree with Law on this last point.  Final height determinations are quite difficult and are often guesswork even when you understand family genetics and have a long term growth pattern documented from the player.  You could get even more exact with more invasive medicals procedures, but that seems an unlikely scenario for an upstart operation in South Korea.  I really do not know if anyone is using that approach.

Conclusion
Like Rashomon, I do not know what the reality is.  I am drawn into Encina's article as something I want to be true.  Sung-min, a player on a well covered Junior national team, somehow slips through the cracks even though he is a lefty with potentially three plus pitches.  Typically, a player like that would be followed by many teams and would be worth a couple million.  The South Korean paper appears more tame, but we don't really know if the papers used the same source.  Many aspects are similar between the two players with the Baltimore account having a greater eye to the future and what Sung-min could become.  Law's account is a dousing of cold water.

In all honesty, all three could be accurate.  Law's information could have come from an earlier outing or on one of the player's bad days.  The Korean article may be an account from an Orioles' scout highlighting the performance when everything was clicking.  The Baltimore Sun account may be a summation of the high points and a focus on the top 1% outcome.  When he reports to Florida, we will likely have much of this progressing toward some answers.

Right now, I would not put too much stock in any of these evaluations.  How could you?

Os Pitchers, Option Years, and Cuts

Note: Vandenhurk was on the 40 man roster when this post was written.  He was DFA'd for Wilson Betemit.

For this article, I used the information collected by this poster and filling in where I see holes (such as Dana Eveland's absence). I have yet to find a good resource on the internet to figure these things out.  However, it appears for the time being that Tom Peace will be working with us at the Depot and providing us transaction information news.  We are happy to have him on board and quite happy to more fully cover the Orioles.

I have not compared this year's 40 man roster heading into Spring Training to any other year's, but it feels as if there is a great deal of roster inflexibility this year.  This post is to run down the current stable of arms and try to determine how many spots on the team are actually up for competition, who that competition is, and who is most certainly going to be placed on waivers.

Players with Three Options
Jake Arrieta RHP
Arrieta on first glance did not have an incredibly impressive season, but his peripherals look good.  Also, if the bone spurs in his arm were hampering him then we may be able to expect even more from him.  I do think even though he would be an excellent late inning arm, if he does not earn a spot in the rotation then he is going to Norfolk.

Zach Britton LHP
I cannot imagine Britton not starting with Baltimore in their rotation.

Dylan Bundy RHP
Bundy signed a major league deal at the signing deadline last August.  He actually has four options due to signing that deal as an amateur and will use the first of those this season.  He is at least two years away from the parent club.

Oliver Drake RHP
Drake was placed on the 40 man roster this past fall to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.  He faces long odds breaking camp with the Orioles, but he may see some time in Baltimore this year as the season drags on and players are demoted, released, or injured.

Two Options
Jason Berken RHP
Berken was on the Scott Garceau Show the other day and mentioned that he feels strong and ready for Spring Training.  I could see him breaking camp in Baltimore.

Brian Matusz LHP
Matusz has two options left and he is certainly fighting for a spot in the rotation this Spring whereas last year he was merely working on a few minor things.  Unless he finds where his lost 2 mph went, then he will likely break the year in Norfolk.

One Option
Darren O'Day RHP
O'Day amazingly still has an option left according the link above.  Plagued with injuries of late, he might need more time to get himself in order to perform well in the majors.  He is certainly one of the pitchers on the bubble.

Zach Phillips LHP
Phillips is another player I was surprised as having another option year left.  He is another player on the bubble as he has shown to be effective as a lefty in the pen.

Pedro Strop RHP (edit: Strop has no options left, he was optioned once by Colorado)
Strop came over to the Orioles in the Mike Gonzalez deal with Texas last year.  At the time, Nick wrote a brief scouting review on Strop.  He looked good in a short cup of coffee last year.

Chris Tillman RHP
Tillman is another pitcher who has lost some velocity as well.  When the Bedard trade went down, Tillman had another 4 mph to his fastball.  As that velocity decreased, so have expectations.  Tillman could help out in the pen, but with an option left he is going to AAA again.

Unoptionable
Brad Bergesen RHP
Bergesen may be able to benefit from the Peterson Pitching Lab.  He has flashed moments of very good-ness, but if he loses his command he becomes quite hittable.  It appears that his best fit would be as a reliever, so that the team could protect him from left handed batters.  It would surprise me to see him DFA'd.

Wei-Yin Chen LHP
Chen should have three options left, but I imagine his contract prevents him from being optioned similar to what most star Japanese players sign.  Chen also was likely promised an opportunity to start, which will narrow things down for the club.


Dana Eveland LHP
Eveland has enticed and disappointed many teams over his career.  He is now without options.  The Orioles gave up minimal talent to acquire him, but that effort probably means that he would have to completely fall apart to not break with the team.


Kevin Gregg RHP
"Proven" closer Kevin Gregg cannot be optioned and will be sticking with the club in some capacity.


Jeremy Guthrie RHP
Guthrie is the dependable veteran hand and, by default, the ace of the team.  Unless dealt, he will break with the club.  His value takes a dramatic downward turn once the season begins because players dealt during the season no longer qualify for free agent compensation.

Tommy Hunter RHP
I am fairly confidant that Hunter is a Buck Showalter player.  However, I just do not see much there worthwhile in him starting.  He will likely start in the pen and will almost certainly break camp with Baltimore.

Jim Johnson RHP
Is he a reliever or a starter?  It really does not matter.  He will be in Baltimore.

Troy Patton LHP
Patton was the major piece in the first Tejada deal (as opposed to Luke Scott).  He was very impressive last year in Baltimore over 30 IP with a 3.00 ERA.  His peripherals looked solid as well.  I am thinking he has earned himself a trip past the Potomac as well.

Clay Rapada LHP
Rapada kills lefties.  He outright kills them.  Righties outright kill Rapada.  They kill him.  Does the team have space for a true LOOGY?

Alfredo Simon RHP
Simon is a fringe player.  He has good velocity in his fastball, but is generally inconsistent.  He has flashed some hope as a starter and a closer, but has ultimately disappointed in both roles.  My guess is that with his law troubles over, he will be dealt to an NL team for a low ceiling B level minor leaguer or a low probability slightly higher ceiling low minors player.

Rick Vandenhurk RHP
Vandenhurk is a shade below Simon.  Simon having been able to show his abilities at the MLB level while Vandenhurk is caught more as someone who does quite well at AAA.  I think the market for him is less than that for Simon.  Vandenhurk will likely be DFA'd at the end of camp.  I would not be surprised if he heads back to the Marlins.


Tsuyoshi Wada LHP
Like Chen, Wada probably has two elements in his contract that limit opportunity for others: (1) he cannot be optioned without his permission and (2) he was likely promised a starting rotation job to being the season.

Starting Rotation
Sure Bets: Guthrie, Britton, Chen, Wada
Competition: Arrieta, Matusz, Tillman, Bergesen, Eveland, Hunter, Simon, VandenHurk
I think the first four slots have been filled.  I also think the competition will really be between Arrieta, Eveland, and Hunter.  For Arrieta, it will be the rotation or Norfolk.  For Eveland and Hunter, it will be the rotation or bullpen.  I cannot see either of them being released.  Matusz is the main wildcard here.  He has the potential to be a very solid 2 slot pitcher on a first division team.  His loss of velocity last year was quite concerning.  If better conditioning improves things, he will secure that fifth slot.  However, it would also not be surprising if we learn this year that he is suffering from an injury.  I also suspect that Simon and Vandenhurk will not be with the club when they break.

Bullpen
Sure Bets: Kevin Gregg, Jim Johnson
Competition: Berken, O'Day, Phillips, Strop, Patton, Rapada, Simon, Vandenhurk
Assuming there is a thirteen man pen, Gregg, Johnson, and perhaps Eveland and Hunter means that there are four slots remaining.  Under competition, the Orioles have eight pitchers competing for four slots (this does not include MiL contracts with Spring Training invites).  Eveland would be the only lefty in that group.  I see Patton in the pen along with the winner of the Phillips/Rapada competition.  For the other two slots, I think Strop and O'Day make it, but that Berken or Simon has a decent chance to displace O'Day due to their ability to eat up innings.

Spring Training Invites
Willie Eyre RHP, Dennys Reyes LHP, Oscar Villareal RHP, Armando Galarraga RHP (I hear he signed)
I would be surprised if any of these pitchers are able to push the players in front of them out of the way.  Eyre depends on getting outs on batted balls.  I think we could see him later in the year, but not in April.  Reyes fell apart last year.  I do not know exactly what happened to him, but I see no evidence that he played past the spring.  He has the ability to push Phillips and Rapada for a spot.  I do not believe in Villareal.  He only has a couple good seasons and last pitched in 2008.  Galarraga has always appeared to be a better pitcher than he really was.  I have a hard time seeing him contributing in a substantial way for a MLB club.


Offseason Not Over
There have been some rumblings that the Orioles have interest in acquiring another pitcher.  The two names mentioned are Francisco Cordero who would come in an close or Luis Ayala who would be another rightie in the pen.  I think the former allows Johnson to stay in a late inning setup role while the latter supposedly solidifies the late inning work and permits Johnson to close out games.  In either of those circumstances, I think it weakens the chances for Strop, O'Day, Berken, and Simon to make the roster.

My Bet
SP: Guthrie, Britton, Chen, Wada, Arrieta
RP: Johnson, Gregg, Patton, Reyes, Eveland, Hunter, Strop, and O'Day

O's make roster moves and what not to do on Twitter

Monday was a productive day for the Baltimore Orioles as the ballclub decided to release outfielder Kyle Hudson. Hudson, 25, was a fourth round pick in the 2008 draft out of Illinois. The young outfielder was designated for assignment to make room for recently acquired pitcher from Taiwan, Wei-Yin Chen. The Orioles had to trade or release Hudson. The team can attempt to resign Hudson, but he wont be able to play for the ballclub before May 15. In three minor league seasons Hudson put up some decent stats, .296/.375/.336 in 119 games.

The Baltimore Sun reported that the Orioles and free agent switch hitting utility infielder Wilson Betemit have agreed on a 2 year +1 deal, pending a physical. Betemit, who played for the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals last season, will provide the Orioles with some infield depth along with the additions of Ryan Flaherty and Matt Antonelli. Betemit for his career has a stat line of .296/.336/.448 with 63 homers and 243 RBIs in 1,742 plate appearances. Last season between the Tigers and the Royals Betemit went a combined .285/.343./.452 with 22 doubles, four triples, eight long balls and 46 RBIs in 97 games. The signing would be considered an On-Base percentage aisle type signing for EVBOP Dan Duquette. The O's will need to remove a player from the 40-man roster  to make room for Betemit. 

Twitter has become a way to deliver the news whether it be entertainment, sports, or even the weather. News can be distributed so fast on twitter, its hard to keep up with whats current and what is old news. The speed of the news though creates some drawbacks and people will try to boost their credibility on social network sites by reporting false or made up information in hopes of making a name for themselves.

(Everybody wants to be the next Roch Kubatko, who doesn't?)

Recently, Scott Swaim who claims to have ties to MLB, tweeted that top free agent Prince Fielder was close to signing a 8 year deal with the Washington Nationals. None of the reliable and trustworthy news outlets, such as MLB, ESPN, Jon Heyman or Ken Rosenthal followed with confirmation on the Swaims news.

Former Nationals GM and ESPN Radio personality Jim Bowden did some investigating and eventually tweeted the report was untrue and that Prince Fielder hadn't nearly signed a deal with the Nats. My grandfather always told me when breaking news happens to always wait and read everything and to see what the true facts are before making a judgement on something. My guess is Swaim, was trying to stir up the hot stove and get people talking about the top free agent left on the market. I mean what else is there to do on a cold January night? Swaim even has it on his twitter that he was the one who broke the Albert Pujols to the Angels story. We live in a world where its not important that the story is accurate or not, its more important and sexy to just report the story first without any resources to back up what you are reporting. Whatever helps you get more followers and more pats on the back by your friends more power to you. But please think before you post, because when your story comes back and bites you and no one is coming to back you up, you look less credible then you already did. 

Are O's Still Looking for a Left-Handed Batter?

Note: This column is now outdated with Betemit signing.


Dan Duquette has mentioned in the past he is looking to add a left handed bat to the team.  He has also expressed a desire to add someone with a ".380 on base percentage."  Those two things are a tough combination to find a free agent whether at the beginning or end of free agency.  At it stands, the only player who immediately appears as a fit is Prince Fielder.  Fielder has been a good, but not elite first baseman.  He tends to have on and off seasons that run the inverse of the infamous Star Trek rule (Fielder's odd years have been better than his even ones 17.1 fWAR vs. 6.4 fWAR).  I think over the next eight years or so that Fielder will be a cheaper and better deal than Albert Pujols, but that he is not a great first baseman.  It is on par with players like Mark Grace, Kent Hrbek, and Glenn Davis.  Very good, but not great players.  As such, it is difficult making a good argument that Fielder is worth 25 MM a year.

However, there are other options than Fielder.  These options are not as flashy or dependable as the production that Fielder will provide.  Additionally many of these second/third/fourth choices have issues with them which may explain why they are available at this late date.

Nine Potential Options:

The First Basemen
This position is one of several where the Orioles lack prime production.  The current plan is to open the season with Chris Davis at first base.  Davis, the long time Ranger who had his moments in Arlington, will try to make a home there, but will need to improve upon his contact rate to an acceptable level (producing a .280 to .300 batting average) to be useful to the team.  The only other option there that could lead to league average or above production would be to shift Mark Reynolds back to first base.  As it stands now, Davis is a left handed batter and an additional left handed batter makes little sense with respect to a platoon.  Davis, however, could be a good offensive backup corner infielder.

Russell Branyan
36 years old
1B/DH/fringe 3B
Branyan has been an extreme platoon hitter with a career +.105 OPS favoring his bat against right handed hitters.  His career has been one where teams have seemed to have difficulty fitting him in as he is a solid defensive 1B who was above average against righties and replacement level against lefties.  Such a player is difficult to find a spot on the bench as his role is limited to 1B and DH as well as being a target for a relief switch late in the game.  In 2009 and 2010, Branyan hit quite well against right handed pitching with 905 and 874 OPS in Seattle and Cleveland.  In 2011, the wheels feel off and had a line of 198/293/388 in 133 plate appearances.  Optimism can be found for this year as his BABIP was 50 points below his normal level.  BABIP tends to regress to a player's average BABIP.  The cause for concern though that I see is that Branyan also saw a collapse in his ISO.  He would be worth a Minor League invite.

Casey Kotchman
29 years old
1B
Kotchman has had high expectations placed up him, placing in the top 100 prospects for Baseball America in 2002 (22nd), 2003 (13th), 2004 (15th), and 2005 (6th).  He was known for plus contact, plus discipline, and plus defense.  The hope was that his gap power would play up as he matured.  After a solid rookie year, his hitting sputtered out.  The Angels eventually gave up on him and he moved around to Atlanta, Boston, and Seattle.  Last year, everything came together again playing for the Rays.  He showed a good hit rate (potentially inflated by a high BABIP) and played good defense.  The Rays apparently did not believe his performance last season was in line with his talent level and chose to pay Carlos Pena instead.  Kotchman would probably be a good play if the team did not already have Davis.  I find him an improvement on Davis, but not remarkably so.

The Third Baseman
It is a matter of discussion when trying to determine whether Mark Reynolds is going back to third base because he is best suited there due to his skills or Chris Davis' shoulder.  A platoon might work here with the left handed third baseman taking third and pushing Reynolds to first or DH when facing a right handed starting pitcher.

Wilson Betemit
30 years old
INF/DH
Betemit is likely looking for a starting gig.  He has predominantly played third base and he has defensively played that position quite poorly.  Betemit keeps himself in lineups because he has keep his 800 or above OPS.  He actually profiles as an extremely good platoon player with a career long 817 OPS against right handers and a 684 OPS against left handers.  His defense is no worse than Reynolds', so he might be a decent choice as a 3B or DH against right handers and a left handed bat off the bench in cross handed matchups.  He could also stand in at 2B or 1B in a pinch.  He has never played the outfield.

The Left Fielders
Left Field is another area of some instability for the Orioles.  They have seemed relatively unconvinced that Nolan Reimold was an appropriate solution for the past several years.  The team has tried to play Felix Pie, Corey Patterson, Kyle Hudson, Matt Angle, and now perhaps Endy Chavez instead of using Reimold.  Chavez, a lefty, has been rumored as being used as a platoon player, but lacks the bat to be effectively used.  It may benefit the team more by relegating Chavez to being a backup centerfielder and use a more legitimate bat to pair up with Reimold.

Johnny Damon
38 years old
DH/LF
Damon was signed on the cheap by the Rays last year and was thrust into the lineup as a full timer.  He showed himself to be unable to play the field and that his bat had deteriorated.  The Orioles have been tied to him, but he would likely be an inflexible player who would be a detriment offensively.

Carlos Guillen
36 years old
DH/LF/1B/fringe INF
Guillen has not been a major contributor in the past three seasons.  He still shows a powerful bat and a decent eye, but he no longer appears able to make enough contact.  Pitchers appear to be going after him more directly than they use to.  However, he does show more flexibility than Damon and that means Guillen can stand around poorly defending more positions than Damon.

Raul Ibanez
40 years old
DH/LF
Ibanez is not a adequate defender.  He hasn't been for years.  For the Phillies, he had a good half season and the rest went to pot.  Ibanez still does relatively well against right handed batters.  He is the type of player I imagine that the old Andy MacPhail regime would be interested in.  Ibanez had a down year last year and someone might take a chance that he could find his stroke again.  I doubt he can though.  He just does not have the bat speed anymore.


J.D. Drew
36 years old
RF/LF/DH
Drew suffered from a shoulder impingement and a fractured finger which resulted in an awful season last year.  He has said that he would continue playing only if he found the right, winning situation.  Many players waiting for contracts have said that and it remains to be seen what Drew will do.  If his shoulder is fixed, then it would be an easy decision to sign him and slot him in left field.  Without looking at his medicals, he appears to me as a great buy low candidate.  I would not want to spend more than 3-4 MM on him and would not wish to promise him a starting slot.  The latter contingency may be difficult in convincing him.

Kosuke Fukudome
35 years old
RF/LF/DH
When the Cubs signed Fukudome they expected a superstar.  What they got was a very good season, two average ones, and a mess of a final season.  His numbers in Japan actually translated quite well with a high OBP.  Somehow the frenzy of a top notch foreign player coming to the US escalated the cost beyond reason.  Although he did not perform according to expectations, that does not make Fukudome a worthless player.  Even last year's evaporation of any sense of power, Fukudome maintained an OBP over .350 against lefties.  He could be useful as a 5th outfielder and an OBP focused platoon player against righties.

The Designated Hitter
One thing has remained the same even though there was a regime change: the expressed desire to keep DH duties open to give players rest.  In the MacPhail era, this often unraveled into reserving the DH position to full time players like Aubrey Huff, Luke Scott, and Vladimir Guerrero.  As the Duquette era begins, does he go out and sign a full time DH?  Damon, Guillen, and Ibanez likely would qualify as that.  So would our last option.

Hideki Matsui
38 years old
DH
The Athletics have tried for the past several seasons to take advantage of a cheap way to improve offensive production: strict DH bats.  This included Mike Piazza, Frank Thomas, Jack Cust, and then Hideki Matsui.  This approach has not exactly gone well for the Athletics.  The poor success rate is likely a reason why it is relatively cheap to use this approach.  Before last year, Matsui was a 850 OPS performer against right handed pitching.  Last year, he was at 654.  I don't see him bouncing back.


Conclusion
I see J.D. Drew, Wilson Betemit, or Casey Kotchman as the three targets that would be ideal.  They are players with good reason for optimism and an outside chance of being useful in a deal that would bring back a B level player.  That said, if the sole play is for a B level prospect then the cost at hand should be no more than 5 MM.  Adjust for the probability of these players being tradable and I would be comfortable offering 3 MM with incentives.  The only other one of these eight that I would be OK with offering a MLB contract would be Kosuke Fukudome.  I could see offering him a base pay of 1.5 MM with incentives.  There really are not a lot of great choices.

Trading Adam Jones: AL Central Edition

The post will focus on a baseline that was suggested by a scout.  So, yes, the opinion of a single professional is how we will value Jones' worth here.  What is that worth?  It was posited that Adam Jones would be worth a top 25 player, a top 50 player, and a top 100 player.  In other words, I would translate this as meaning a A-, B+ and B level player.  One final way of looking at it, a 60, a 56, and a 52.  That means that some in this business think very highly of Adam Jones.  We at the Depot have not thought as highly of Jones in the past, but what matters is who values him the most.

This fourth part will focus on packages from AL Central teams.

Chicago White Sox
Dayan Viciedo, RF
Addison Reed, RP
Gordon Beckham, INF

I think it is often a good exercise to go through and look at each team.  How each team matches up.  The White Sox are obviously a poor fit.  Right now they are going through an Orioles style rebuilding project.  That basically means that are trading away fringe value pieces and inexplicably holding onto their guys with real value.  Their minors is thin which hurts teams wanting young players in return and works against the ChiSox's new goal to beef up their system.  A deal here centers on Dayan Viciedo who is a promising player, but there are questions about his hitting approach with poor discipline and a need for more power.  Much of the hope statistically on him is based on his rapid improvement in walk rate as he faced AAA pitching for the second year in a row.  The other major piece is the struggling Gordon Beckham.  Beckham promising breakout in 2009 is now overshadowed by poor 2010 and 2011 campaigns.  He has developed a habit of chasing really bad pitches.  He is a reclamation project.

Cleveland Indians
Matt LaPorta, 1B
Jason Kipnis, 2B
Michael Brantley, LF

The Indians system thinned out a bit with last year's acquisition of Ubaldo Jimenez.  Otherwise, LHP Drew Pomeranz would have been the target here.  The second target would be Jason Kipnis.  I have always been a big Kipnis fan, lobbying hard in 2009 for Nick to draft him in our Orioles shadow draft.  He logged 150 plate appearances last year and showed a strong bat and the potential to stick it out at second base.  I think the team control on him and his offensive production will make him a hard target to acquire, but one you have to insist on.  The bat certainly looks real, but with his difficulties at second the bat looks not quite as shiny if it needs to be moved to left field.  I also focused on acquiring a couple disappointing prospects and second tier arm.  Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley are two prospects who came over in the CC Sabathia deal and have disappointed.  LaPorta has never shown the power and contact rate he displayed in the minors.  He does not have much more rope left.  In Michael Brantley the Indians have someone who has logged a couple years and is approaching his more expensive team controlled years.  His two major failings in the Majors have been a lack of meaningful contact and an inability to hit left handed pitching.  Adding a little more salt to the wound, his approach in left field leaves one wanting, but he does have the ability to be average if not better out there. Brantley could also be exchanged out for someone like Zach McAllister.

Detroit Tigers
Casey Crosby, LHP
Nick Castellanos, 3B
Andrew Oliver, LHP

The Tigers at first look like a bad fit with Austin Jackson in center.  However, Jones is a clear upgrade to Jackson with the bat and potentially with the glove.  The Tigers could also pay deference to Jackson and shift Jones to a corner position.  However, shifting Jones to a corner position reduces his value to the team and makes him less of an attractive piece to acquire.  Additionally, the Tigers give up good pieces that should be of use to them.  Crosby and Oliver are not far away from potentially providing meaningful contributions to the big league club. Castellanos is a very good prospect who could be developed by the club or dealt for a player that more fits the team's needs.

Kansas City Royals
Wil Myers, LF
Christian Colon, INF
Tim Melville, RHP

This trade almost makes sense if not for the Royals being set in their outfield.  Alex Gordon finally accomplished with his bat what everyone thought he was capable of doing.  Jeff Francoeur had a career year.  Melky Cabrera broke out big in a career year as well.  All of these guys were in their age 26 or 27 year, so it makes some sense that these performance may be real and qualify as what one might expect from their peak seasons.  For a team like the Royals it would make more sense to use any trade chips to beef up their pitching instead of going after Jones. 

Minnesota Twins
Miguel Sano, 1B/LF
Eddie Rosario, OF
Niko Goodrum, SS

Budget issues, Denard Span, and stopgap Ben Revere make this a difficult place for Jones to land.  Add that to the general feeling that the Twins are trying to retool as opposed to push for the playoffs and it just does not seem like a fit.  Sano would be the prize here.  Oriole fans can often be heard gnashing their teeth when hearing of Sano because the Orioles were turned off by his 3.5 MM price tag and instead took that money along with another million, investing it in Garret Atkins.  Good times.  Of course, Sano is still a very raw hitter who strikes out far more than should against not too advanced hitting.  He is young and could develop into a monster bat.

Conclusion
Adam Jones simply does not appear to easily fit for any team in this division.  The White Sox and Indians appear not to be in the market for Jones and their packages rely far too much on reclamation projects with too much service time already used.  I could see the Tigers being interested as they fill out their outfield.  It appears they are set with Jackson in center and Delmon Young in left field.  The Royals have the young talent to offer, but they sport an outfield that is entering into their peaks years and is reasonably priced.  I also simply do not see the Twins choosing to spend so much to fill a position that they already have coverage with the difficulties they face with their budget allocations already.  However, of those deals...I'd like to find something with the Royals and then the Tigers.  It still appears the only logical place so far for Jones to go is Atlanta.

Kyle Hudson's Draft Excluded Status

In one of his posts, Roch Kubatko wrote the following:

Hudson can't be placed on waivers and outrighted to the minors before March because he's "draft excluded." The Orioles must trade or release him. They can re-sign him if he's released, but he can't play for them before May 15.

Roch apparently believes that surrounding mystery around quotation marked designations improves the beauty of sports journalism, I guess.

What does it mean to be draft excluded?

It is a player who begins the season as a minor leaguer who would be eligible for that December's Rule 5 draft and is added to the 40 man roster between the draft signing date (August 15th) and the deadline for the Rule 5 draft.  This player can be traded at any time during his draft excluded status, but cannot be designated for assignment until 20 days prior to opening day.

Therefore, Kyle Hudson, a draft excluded player by being added to the 40 man roster in September, must pass through waivers and given his outright release.  Apparently, there is a May 15th deadline as well that I did not know was in effect.  This means that Kyle Hudson will not be an Orioles in 2012.  He will sign with someone else assuming the May 15th date is correct.

What is the specific language?

MLR 6 (e)

DRAFT-EXCLUDED PLAYERS. A player who is excluded from selection in a Rule 5 Selection Meeting because the player was promoted to a Major League Reserve List after August 15 of the championship season preceding the selection meeting and remains on a Major League Reserve List through the conclusion of such selection meeting shall be referred to as a "draft-excluded player." A draft-excluded player shall not be directed to perform for, assigned to, or otherwise transferred to a Minor League Club unless the player first receives a trial with the player's Major League Club lasting until 20 days before the opening day of the following Major League season. See Rule 10(e)(6) (Restrictions on Waiver Requests) for rules concerning when waivers may be requested on a player who would become a draft-excluded player and Rule 10(d)(5)(B) (Consideration for Assignment of Player; Selected or Draft-Excluded Player) for rules concerning the waiver claim price for a draft-excluded player.

Rule 10(e)(6)

Assignment waivers may not be requested on the contract of a player who stands to become a draft-excluded player, as described in Rule 6(e), during the period beginning five days following the last day of the World Series and ending 25 days prior to the opening of the championship season of the year following the year the player became a draft-excluded player. If waivers are obtained, no assignment may be made pursuant to such waivers until 20 days prior to the opening of the championship season of said year.

I do not see anything about May 15th.