Who is on First? Orioles 2013 Edition

First base is the final position I will be reviewing for the Orioles to improve themselves.  The other positions I have covered have been second base and left field.  This will not be the first time we have discussed the position.  It likely will not be the last.  The point of this post and the other two are to provide an understanding of what level of performance the Orioles generated from these positions last year and whether internal or eternal options are needed in order to improve the talent on the roster.

Below is a graph that first appeared in the Mark Reynolds piece.  It identifies that the Orioles were not weak at first base, but they did not have first division production from that position.  Improvement is possible here, but it may cost a bit.



There are a few options for 2013 that already exist within the organization.  I tried to be incredibly open minded when looking at this position, so I included some of the catchers and Nolan Reimold.

Internal		LHP	RHP		LHP 40g	RHP 110g
	Age	wRC+	wRC+	Defense	WAR	WAR	WAR
Wilson Betemit	31	65	133	-15	-0.9	1.7	0.8
Chris Davis	27	112	121	-5	0.4	1.7	2.1
Joe Mahoney	26	84	82	-5	-0.2	-0.6	-0.8
Mark Reynolds	29	100	112	-5	0.2	1.2	1.4
Matt Wieters	27	143	105	-10	1.0	0.4	1.4
Taylor Teagarden	29	73	73	-10	-0.5	-1.5	-2.1
Steve Pearce	30	121	68	-5	0.6	-1.4	-0.8
Brandon Waring	27	107	62	-10	0.2	-2.2	-2.0
Nolan Reimold	29	100	105	-10	0.0	0.4	0.4

In an earlier post, I mentioned that a platoon of Betemit and Davis would work.  It should be noted that Davis all on his lonesome would also project to generate just as much offense as the platoon would generate.  I must say though that I find Davis' projection to be rather remarkable.  I do not believe in him as much as the model projects him.  Wieters would also be a good platoon partner at first, but it is quite doubtful that a sufficient catcher would be found to replace him at catcher.  Russell Martin would be a fit for that idea, but there is no way he would accept a role as a backup catcher, nor should he.

However, I think the take home message again from the above table is that Mark Reynolds' production can be replaced by what the Orioles already have.  Chris Davis, if he truly is the projected player, simply is better than Reynolds.  On the DH role, Betemit could face righties and, perhaps, Steve Pearce could face lefties.  Jeff Keppinger and Jonny Gomes would also be suitable DH platoon partners.  Whatever the solution is, it should be less than the 9MM Reynolds seems likely to earn in arbitration.

What is available for 1B as Free Agents?

Free Agents		LHP	RHP		LHP 40g	RHP 110g
	Age	wRC+	wRC+	Defense	WAR	WAR	WAR
Lance Berkman	36	93	134	-5	0.0	2.5	2.5
Eric Hinske	35	57	84	0	-0.6	-0.1	-0.8
Travis Ishikawa	29	81	108	10	0.2	2.0	2.2
Jeff Keppinger	33	116	65	0	0.6	-1.3	-0.6
Adam LaRoche	33	99	123	5	0.4	2.6	3.0
Carlos Lee	37	91	88	-5	0.0	-0.2	-0.3
James Loney	29	69	101	5	-0.2	1.3	1.0
Mike Napoli	31	134	111	-5	0.9	1.1	2.0
Nick Swisher	32	132	116	0	1.0	1.8	2.8
Kevin Youkilis	34	118	107	0	0.7	1.2	1.9

As I mentioned before, I am a Keppinger fan and would be very interested in having his bat on the bench or starting against lefties.  Another player I find interesting, one that I think might be available on a split minor league deal, is Travis Ishikawa.  His value is based more on defense, but he is sufficiently able to start against righties.  I am not completely sold on his value, so I would be hesitant to make much of a commitment to him.

Of course, the elite bats here are Berkman, LaRoche, Napoli, Swisher, and Youkilis.  If you are concerned about the Orioles late first round selection in next year's draft, then you may hesitate in signing LaRoche or Swisher as both have qualifying offers on them from their 2012 teams.  Berkman is considering retirement, has a severe platoon bat, and is at an age where abilities can fall apart.  Youkilis is more of a natural fit for 1B, but looks like he is not long for MLB as his injuries are beginning to sap his offense.  Napoli is an interesting player as he is a platoon bat that is strong against left handers.  He may be able to give Wieters a rest at catcher against lefties and rest against some righties with tough plus breaking balls.  Such a move would push Davis to more of a full time DH with some 1B work and Betemit to the bench as a pinch hitter against righties as well as an occasional DH against right handed starters.  Napoli has been a bit of an up and down player, so there may be some concern over committing to him for too many year.

Non-Tender		LHP	RHP		LHP 40g	RHP 110g
	Age	wRC+	wRC+	Defense	WAR	WAR	WAR
Daric Barton	27	94	91	10	0.4	1.0	1.5
Kyle Blanks	26	92	105	-5	0.0	0.8	0.8
Dan Johnson	33	94	93	0	0.2	0.4	0.6
Casey McGehee	30	67	100	-5	-0.5	0.5	-0.1
Gaby Sanchez	29	72	112	5	-0.2	1.9	1.7

I'd like to see both Daric Barton and Kyle Blanks in the system.  Gaby Sanchez looks likely to find himself a role with a MLB team and that simply is not an offer I would make to him.  Barton and Blanks would not earn a 40 man contract from me though.  There are more than enough people in the organization who can eke out play at first.

Recommendation
As I mentioned before, Mark Reynolds simply is not worth 9MM.  If one insists on spending 9MM and assuming Wieters can play some first base, then Mike Napoli would be someone I would target.  Equally acceptable for me would be to have Chris Davis or Davis and Wilson Betemit take on first.

Free Agents - First Base

This is the second of a series of posts on free agents.

C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | LF | CF | RF | DH | SP | RHRP | LHRP

David Ortiz might be a good value at first base.

Another area for improvement for the Orioles would be to upgrade at first base.  In these listings, I have also included several internal options in addition to free agents.  For the purpose of this post, we are using the following groupings:

Elite: Greater than 4.5 WAR / 600 PA
Good: 3.5 to 4.5 WAR / 600 PA
Above Average: 2.5 to 3.5 WAR / 600 PA
Average: 1.5 to 2.5 WAR / 600 PA
Poor Starter: 0.75 to 1.5 WAR / 600 PA
Backup: Below 0.75 WAR / 600 PA

No one below a projected 0.75 WAR should be offered anything more than a minor league contract with an invite to training camp.  The values were calculated by weighting performance of the past three seasons normalized each year to 600 PA.  This ranking does not consider injury status which will likely affect some players.

Elite (greater than 4.5 WAR / 600 PA)
Albert Pujols (6.9)
Pujols is arguably the best player in the game and is likely to pull in an 8 year, 200 MM deal.  This is likely to be beyond what the Orioles could afford.  In the near term, his presence can completely change a team with his elite offense and good defense.
Prince Fielder (5.7)
We mentioned earlier that Fielder is likely to be the better deal of the two.  He does not have Pujols profile, but he is a decent bet to give back value on his contract.  There are some concerns about his body type as people remember Mo Vaughn, but David Ortiz has aged somewhat well.

Good (3.5 - 4.5 WAR / 600 PA)
David Ortiz (3.5)
Speaking of David Ortiz, this might seem a little peculiar.  Ortiz is not a first baseman, but he does have a solid bat.  If we assume he costs a team 15 runs as a first base man, he still projects as being worth 3.5 WAR / 600 PA.  At 36 years old, he certainly is a candidate to see his performance collapse.

Above Average (2.5 - 3.5 WAR / 600 PA)
Derrek Lee (2.9)
The Orioles were quite underwhelmed with Lee's performance last year.  However, in Pittsburgh his offense blew up and he finished the year strong.  He could reward someone who takes a chance on him.
Carlos Pena (2.8)
Pena seems to be underrated by many.  He has a solid bat and is a solid defender at first base.  Chicago will probably look in a different direction for first base this year.  A team might be able to sign him to a short term deal for under 10 MM.
Nick Markakis (2.6)
Markakis played first a few times last year and, according to this system, is currently the Orioles' best option at first base.  However, he is more valuable in right field.

Average (1.5 - 2.5 WAR / 600 PA)
Michael Cuddyer (2.2)
Cuddyer can play several positions while playing none of them particularly well.  That versatility is valuable, but it appears to me that he is somewhat overvalued for his versatility.
Mark Reynolds (2.1)
If Reynolds is truly a -30 run defender at third, then he has to move off the hot corner.  If he is more in line with his career line of -10, then he probably should head back to third base.  He would provide decent production here, but he would not be special.
Luke Scott (1.9)
Scott's year last year caused his value to take a dive.  If last year was the result of several injuries that do not affect his 2012 season, then he could potentially be the best option at first.
Eric Hinske (1.7)
Hinske followed two solid seasons with a poor one last year.  It is always difficult to expect a bounce back season from a 34 year old who is better utilized as a platoon player.
Casey Kotchman (1.6)
How much do you believe in Kotchman's awful 2010 season?  How much do you believe in his outstanding 2011 season?  A good bit of his worth is also tied up into his glove.

Poor Starter (0.75 - 1.5 WAR / 600 PA)
Russell Branyan (1.4)
Branyan had a poor season last year and is also a bit of a platoon player.  I would not be too sold on him.
Lyle Overbay (1.3)
Overbay has been on a downward trend the last few years.
Brad Hawpe (1.2)
Hawpe is not the guy he used to be.  His performance has collapsed.
Juan Rivera (1.2)
Rivera has some value for a team who wants a contact oriented power bat off the bench.  Beyond that, I don't see much value here.
Nolan Reimold (0.8)
Reimold's 2010 hurts his value here.  If you believe in what he did last year, then he looks like a 1.7 WAR player at first base.  He could be passable, but you need to get more production out of other positions if this is to be a first division team.


The Rest (less than 0.75 WAR)
Mark Kotsay (0.7), Ross Gload (0.4), Xavier Nady (-0.2), Chris Davis (-0.3), and Jorge Cantu (-1.3).

Conclusion
If the Orioles are to go big then putting money down on Fielder makes more sense to me than Pujols for the reasons I spelled out in a previous post.  If the next tier of talent is considered, I would target a one or two year deal for Pena or Ortiz.  Beyond that, I would place Mark Reynolds at first base.

1B Aging Curve

Last week, I posted about how age affects fielding performance for second basemen and shortstops. These are positions where teams often place some of their more athletic players. Today, we focus on first basemen, which is a position where teams do not regard athleticism much. First base is an offensive position and being adequate is often enough for the manager to keep slotting a mashing, poor fielder in at first base. A particular interesting sidelight is that Mark Teixeira is coming into free agency this year. A significant portion of Teixeira's value comes from his defensive abilities. He is a streaky hitter, but his defense is supposedly constant. Just looking at RZR for Teixeira we see this (for what it is worth .750 is about average for a first baseman):


24 .799
25 .815
26 .840
27 .752
28 .798

Teixeira is a very good defensive 1B, but the question is how do defensive abilities of 1B age?

The main fielding considerations for generating outs are the ability to field efficiently and range. Fielding cleanly or fielding efficiency is a skill that should maximize when the player accrues experience that assists in coordination, but then tapers off when age affects reaction time. This includes being able to field balls straight from the bat and the ability to catch balls thrown to first. Range typically has a shorter learning curve (i.e., first step), but more rapidly deteriorates due to age. Range typically is not well considered for 1B. Regardless, both of these general assumptions should apply to the defensive capability of firstbasemen.

Revised Zone Rating (RZR) will be used as a surrogate for fielding efficiency. This metric assumes there is a given territory that a defender should be expected to cover. Of all the balls that pass through this zone, outs are recorded and compared to the number of chances. This is not ideal as RZR will be effected eventually by decreased range, but it should be rather representative because players are typically moved off positions if they are so unable to defend this standardized area. This is also hampered by the fact that it does not consider the ability to catch errant throws. I imagine that this skill may increase at a later date and that this graph may actually shift a year back, but I could be wrong with that thought.

Out of Zone (OOZ) Plays represent range. These plays are those that are made outside of the zone designated to the position. Again, there are potential issues. If a defender is playing next to a player who has great range then the number of OOZ plays he can accrue will probably be reduced. The resulting effect may not be great because several players seasons will be used to determine the aging curve line.

The data was collected from the Hardball Times fielding statistics. Fielding performance was recorded from 2004-2007. Out of Zone plays for each player was divided by the number of innings played and normalized over 162 9 inning games. Ages were then determined and applied to the seasons. Ages with less than three data points were removed from consideration. Only full time players with more than one season at 1B during this time period were considered. Due to the lack of players at the outer age classes, this graph covers years 24 to 32 only.

Firstbase Fielding Age Curves
The curves depicted to the right show the effect of age on fielding efficiency (orange) and range (black). Each horizontal mark represents five plays for both axises. The RZR line has been normalized for the average number of chances encountered at 1B for a full 162 game 9 inning season. For instance, if a player moves from one horizontal line to the next over the course of two seasons then the player has improved or declined by five plays. A single play is worth about 0.6 runs, so each line represents 3 runs saved or lost. Three lines roughly represent a win gained or given.

Based on the age classes we have on hand (at least three data points had to be available for each age included), we see absolutely no acclimation for range from 24 onward. Range basically plateaus between age 30 and 31 seasons. This differs from 2B and SS curves that actually seemed to require an increase in experience to maximize range. Fielding efficiency follows a similar pattern to that of second basemen and shortstops. Players peak between 26 and 27 age years. This actually goes along with Teixeira's performance so far.

Conclusion
For first basemen, fielding range is maximized in the early 20s and immediately declines until about age 30. First base is not considered a defensive position, so when a 1B ages it is typically met with a shrug. Fielding efficiency maxes out at 26 or 27 years of age and then goes into decline. It could be argued that the decline is fueled largely by the decline in range. It should be noted that efficiency, for a short period, does increase as range decreases. The reduced ability to field effectively is most likely due to age and range. A simple regression found correlation between range and RZR to be an order of magnitude greater than age and RZR.

With regard to Teixeira, his better defensive days are behind him. Although, it should be noted that only once in the past five years has he been anything close to average. He is an excellent defender. I imagine, based on the curve, that he won't being average in the field until he is about 34. Whoever signs him should do quite well with him manning 1B. 20MM per year well? That is another story.

Breaking Down the Orioles 40 man roster - 1B

1B
Aubrey Huff
Kevin Millar

Aubrey Huff - Huff was almost a can't miss prospect. Not much defense, but a pure hitter. He rolled out of Miami putting up big numbers in the Salley League in 1998. Plate discipline was something to desire. That tightened up as he spent a full year AA in Orlando in 99, again displaying power. The following year was more improvement at AAA and a call up to the big league club. He showed glipses of power and was considered the new wave of Devil Rays. In 2001, he saw his first full year and he was dreadful. His batting eye evaporated and he couldn't lift the ball. He was still young at 24 though. The following season begun three straight 120+ OPS seasons and a plethora of trade rumors as the Devil Rays flopped. Unfortuately for the Rays, they kept him. One and a half average seasons later and he left to the Astros. Not much happened for him on the free agent market, so we picked him up with hopes he would become dominant again. April and May of this year, he was awful as a first baseman. In June, he was good with a 120 OPS. What happened? Well, he didn't get any better. He still is not showing any power. Rather, hits are just falling in. He is just not displaying the power he used to. This is the third year in a row and it looks like we'll have to suffer because this is what the guy is. No contact, no plate discipline, and no power. Maybe he'll get hot, but I don't see much here.

4MM this year
8MM in '08 and 8MM in '09.

Prediction: He should experience more of an upturn in his production, but it would be hard to see him exceed 850 OPS. He'll give you the same production as Millar, but at 3 times the cost over the term of the contract. He is not a trading piece until his last year unless we ate a large portion of the deal. Another possibility is that he may be switched back to 3B if we do get a legit 1B on the team.


Kevin Millar (aka Mike Butcher) - The Rodney Dangerfield of the Orioles, Millar has been solid. He is the most successful scab to play the game. Undrafted out of college, he raked it in the independent leagues. The Marlins picked him up and he proceeded to fare well against minor league pitching until he reached AA at age 25 and killed them. The Marlins then brought him up. He immediately hit and never looked back. He has never had a below average offensive season. His almost defection to Japan seems bizarre. No one was going after him even though he hit a 130+ the previous year. Anyway, his power has begun to evaporate, but the wily veteran is figuring out how to be more selective and is increasing his obp%. He is good. This year, he is the Orioles second best hitter (Roberts being the best). Many fans still don't understand his value. He looks bad doing it, but he does it well. He would fit well on a team that is poised to go all the way, but needs a 1B.

Millar is signed for 2.75MM with up to ~1.8MM in bonus
2.75 team option in '08

Prediction: He is valuable. If Gibbons was not on this team, Millar would exist peacefully with the rest of the lineup. Honestly, I'd like to keep him for that second year and deal him then. Then again, this is his best year in 4 years . . . so maybe now is the time to sell. Especially when we have such redundancy on the active roster. He should keep it up. He is walking like mad and his BA/BIP is in line with his other peripherals. He should finish the year in the 800-850 OPS ranged and it will be OBP heavy, where Huff is SLG heavy. I think we will trade him at the break this year. Gibbons is just too impossible to move.


Other Options:

Mike Cervenak: 1B at AAA. Fodder. He has never sniffed the majors. Poor plate discipline. Is just in the past couple years coming through and producing . . . though doing well in AA at age 28 is not much of an accomplishment. Next.

Luis Jimenez: 1B at AA. Fodder with low probability upside. Power guy with awful discipline. 6th organization. 25 years old. Not much here.

Brandon Sing : 1B at AA. Signed from the Cubs as a minor league free agent. Has shown power and was dominant at A+ and AA . . . his second time through. He has been owned last year and this year by AA pitchers. Not sure if he has gotten injured or something, but he looks done.

Mark Fleisher: 1B at Frederick. Drafted in '05 out of Radford. He showed good power there, but questions about plate discipline, contact rate, and defense arose . . . which dropped him down to the 14th round. At Low A, he showed glimpses of power, but was easily handled. In Mid A, he again showed glimpses of power, but was easily handled. This year, is the same at Hi A. He does not project well as he is basically amounting to a mid 700 OPS type of guy. Maybe he will get it one of these days, but at best he may be a guy he sits on the bench for a couple years for a few cups of coffee and nothing more.

Chris Vinyard: Was selected in the 2005 draft as a "draft and follow" guy. He went to community college and then accepted a deal, playing in Aberdeen last year. He showed glimpses of power with a homerun every 30 at bats and a solid double rate of 1 every ten, but he also struck out 1 in 5. Still, an 855 OPS is respectable for a 20 year old. Not mindblowing, but respectable. This year he K rate is the same as is his homerun rate. His double rate actually dropped slightly. Unfortunately his BB rate also dropped a bit. He'll not be able to bypass HiA with these rates. He still has a few years to hit his stride and can be quite capable. His ceiling might be Carlos Pena, but it is still quite early. He could also be Jim Traber. Or worse.

Brandon Snyder: Well, he isn't much of a catcher anymore with his labrum injury. He is toiling in Delmarva as a 1B. He is still young and shows lots of promise. His pro debut was made as he tore apart Bluefield and Aberdeen as few 18 year olds do. 19 was a rough year for him as both Aberdeen and Delmarva spit him up. His season was ended with surgery. This year he is recovering playing 1B and will likely stay there with the assumed emergence of Mark Weiters. Snyder strikes out about a third of the time. He walks about ten percent of the time. He gets a homerun every forty at bats and a double every 15. He will need a lot of seasoning, but it looks like he can hit . . . he just . . . doesn't. He'll stay with us for two more years and then we'll have to reassess. He is nowhere near the majors, but a good growth and mental spurt in his early 20s would help. He'll never have good plate discipline though.

Free Agency
Sean Casey . . . he gets on base, but has only 1 HR in over 250AB this year. No thanks.
Tony Clark . . . maybe if it was 9 years ago.
Jeff Conine . . . two times was good enough.
Julio Franco . . . again, we need to get younger.
Mike Lamb . . . gives Millar numbers, but a few years younger . . . and platoons. Millar is more valuable and would be cheaper.
Doug Mientkiewicz . . . good glove, decent obp usually, nothing else. Not worth it.
Dmitri Young . . . poor plate discipline and old. Someone will pay him 6 or 7 though. He is playing too well this year.


Conclusion: We have nothing in the pipeline to get here soon. We are keeping Huff and betting he can be what he once was . . . he isn't though. If we can jettison Gibbons, then we'll keep Millar. If not, then Millar goes. Our closest 1B will be ready for a September callup in '10. Teixeira might be the way to go if we can.