Arrivals and Departures: 40 Man Update (12/12/2013)

The team is currently in the midst of the Winter Meetings with many following Baltimore waiting for a move to happen.  The team currently sits at 38 players on the active roster, meaning they are still able to make a selection in today's Rule 5 draft.  With the club aiming for another playoff run, any Rule 5 selection will likely be a bullpen arm that could log some garbage time in a similar fashion as to how T.J. McFarland was used.  Of course, McFarland proved to be more useful than a simple innings eater in blowouts, but not by much.

Below is a quick run through of several Rule 5 options:

Right Handed Pitchers
Danny Burawa, New York Yankees
The Yankees don't exactly have a deep minor league system, but they also have a 40 man roster that every year is a bit more bloated with fringe MLB players than it should be.  It creates a situation where some potential Rule 5 arms emerge.  Burawa is one of those.  Last year saw him effective in AA striking out a player every inning, but walking one every four outs.  This performance contrasts with a player that had decent control before he missed the entire 2012 season with a torn oblique.  Perhaps with time and increased core strength, the control will return.  He offers a mid 90s fastball, a below average slider, and a change up that probably should not be thrown at the MLB level.
Hector Nelo, Los Angeles Dodgers
Nelo was taken last year in the Minor League portion of the Rule 5, which is where you simply find filler and nothing else.  Nelo is a fringe player who could be something more if anyone could impress upon him a decent secondary offering.  His fastball hums in the upper 90s as some of you might remember seeing him in Potomac in 2011.  He tries to throw a slider, but with no success.  If the organization thinks it can fix him, he could be a solid reliever.  If not, he would be soon returned to the Dodgers.
Ryan Tepera, Toronto Blue Jays 
Tepera is one of those long time minor league starters who find that a switch to the pen gains them about 3 or 4 mph.  From what I can tell, he was likely on the bubble for a 40 man roster slot.  I could see him being very useful as a fourth right hander in the pen with a mid 90s fastball and a solid average slider.  He is the one of these three right handers that I would be most interested in.

Left Handed Pitchers
Omar Luis, New York Yankees
Luis is the flashy name of the Rule 5.  Like others before (others who were not drafted), a contract issue has resulted in a well thought of international amateur being available after only one professional season.  Last year, the Yankees signed Luis to a 4 MM contract.  However, that deal had to be scrubbed and a new one for 2.5 MM was written.  Players who are on their second contract automatically qualify for the Rule 5, so he is for the taking.  That said, he saw only 30 innings in the GCL last year, showing wretched command.  He has a very promising fastball/slider combo with a decent projection for his change up.  He is a solid prospect to have in an organization, but I think it would be hard for any team to keep him on a MLB squad all season long.  Perhaps a club like the Astros or Marlins could manage that.  I doubt the Orioles can.
Brian Moran, Seattle Mariners
Moran is not a flashy player.  He does not throw particularly hard.  His stuff does not really grade out as impressive.  He gives up a lot of fly balls.  All he seems to do is perform.  Last year, he induced a swinging strike rate of 19% while striking out a third of the batters he faced.  He was outright dominant against lefthanders with a FIP of 1.50 and a SIERA of 1.31.  Righties performed nearer to league average.   When all is said and done, sometimes you have to forget appearances and go with what a pitcher has done.  It might be time to stop explaining why Moran is not your traditional prospect and simply let him play.  Here is a video we shot of him leading up to the 2009 draft.
Ronan Pacheco, Atlanta Braves
Pacheco is a 6'6 lefty who has a relatively slim build.  He has struggled in his stints at AA, which is likely what made the Braves not protect him.  However, he did have a groundball rate in the upper 60s, which is quite interesting to me.  He throws a low 90s, heavy fastball that induces groundballs.  Pacheco pairs that with a slow curveball and a rather poor changeup or so it appears from his massive splits.  He does walk a lot of batters and that issue would make it hard for him to be helpful even in a junkball role on a team.  Long term though, he appears to be a decent LOOGY prospect for the Braves.

Of course, one wonders to what extent the Orioles actually have space in their bullpen for a Rule 5 draftee.  The pen has six pitchers who have no options remaining (i.e., Zach Britton, Kelvin De La Cruz, Edgmer Escalona, Tommy Hunter, Troy Patton, and Josh Stinson).  Added to that, you have Mike Belfiore, Brad Brach, Steve Johnson, Brian Matusz, Darren O'Day, T.J. McFarland, and Ryan Webb realistically in the fold as well.  Other pitchers on the 40 man, I imagine, will either be starting or in Norfolk.

Clearly unsettled at this point, but the seven man pen is likely to have five right handers and two left handers.  There is a growing feeling that if Matusz cannot establish himself as a starting pitcher that he will be sent on to the pastures of another Major League team.  That likely places Britton or McFarland in along with Patton.  However, I don't think any southpaw has made the team yet.  For the right handers, Darren O'Day, Ryan Webb, and Tommy Hunter seem like sure things.  De La Cruz and Escalona appear to have the inside track on the other two slots if no closer is added.  However, if a closer is added or Bud Norris is sent there then it gets very crowded with a large number of guys with no options involved.  It would not be surprising to see a Rule 5 selection be a simple look-see at a player.  It would also not be surprising to see a decent number of these pitchers going places in trades.

Below is the current 40 man roster with options listed.

Orioles 40 man roster with options

A short announcement today . . . we have been running the 40 man roster with options denoted by a color code in a running column to the left side of this page. This column runs on every page within this blog. We figured that since we often consult this list we figured out on our own . . . you may wish to do the same. Anyway, feel free to consult it and let me know if there is ever anything I miss.

Breaking Down the Orioles 40 man roster - 2B

2B
Brians Roberts

Brian Roberts - Roberts was the last and final 1st round pick of the Orioles infamous 1999 7 man 1st round. He is the only one to amount to anything, but he sure has amounted to quite a lot. His minor league track record suggested he would never amount to much. He always had a great eye, but had issues with contact rate and power. It was originally thought he would make a decent double play team with Jerry Hairston, Jr who had held his own against minor league pitching. Hairston's injuries and a resigned Mike Bordick dictated the Roberts try his hand at second. So began the Orioles 2B battle, which lasted for two years and an uncomfortable lame duck third season. During those years, Roberts bat emerged to go along with his plate patience. Handed the starting job in 2004, his power potential also arose as he hit 50 doubles. For a young player an upswing in secondary power suggests more power to come. His 2005 campaign saw him triple his HR career high mark. He also smacked 45 doubles. Unfortunately, late that season against the Yanks, Roberts suffered a horrible broken arm at first base. This injury carried over into the next season and resulted in a severe dropped in power as his power fly rate was cut in half and his groundball percentage rose about 15%. In other words, with his arms failing him, he turned to his legs. So far in 2007, his batting eye is just fine. He still has yet to regained his secondary power. One has to wonder if it will ever come back. He has remained rather productive with doubles, but everything tends to indicate they are weak gappers. This would suggest that in another three or four years, those gappers may drop a bit sooner and become only singles. Three or four years and that speed will begin to whittle away. Three or four years and that strong to average defense will begin to lose its range. Now, he is a very good ball player and will continue to be for five or six more years.

4.2MM this year
6.3MM '08 and 8MM in '09

Thoughts: This is an amazing deal. A 800+ OPS 2B is worth more than 18.5MM over the next three years. He is getting the same as Huff while playing a far more difficult position. Crazy. He is our 2B for the next two and a half years and he'll get a huge payday from someone for 2010.

No one else to speak of on the Major League roster. You could argue Bynum, but he is an outfielder. You could argue Gomez, but he is a strict utility guy. Brandon Fahey is just such a horrible hitter. I cannot see him being considered. The same goes to Luis Hernandez.

AAA
Cesar Crespo. Filler. Decent eye and can provide backup on the bench, but will never translate well to the majors as shown by his two stints with the Padres and one with the Bosox. He has always be a somewhat patient mistake hitter in the minors. That rarely translates well in the majors. If he hones himself and finds an opening, he could become a poor man's Chris Gomez.

AA
Paco Figueroa. Interesting player. He won't be a star, but he could be a pretty good backup. He was an old collegiate player at Miami and his first pro year was 2006 in HiA Frederick at the age of 23. He displayed a good eye and absolutely no power. He has speed, but is horrible on the basepaths. This year at Bowie . . . really good eye and nothing else. His double rate has bounced up 30%. He is still older than his competition, but he looks like a solid bench player in the majors. In all honesty, I think he should be in AAA next year. I could see him hitting about 780-820 OPS there. He'll be a better option than Fahey as a backup come '09. An organization needs guys like this.

HiA
Gera Alvarez. Showed early displays on on base prowess, but had some rough skills. He always performed average against younger competition and fell apart in AA last year as a 26 year old. He won't ever get to AAA. He seems like a nice guy though and should probably start thinking about managing.

Jonathan Tucker. Interesting. Really interesting. He is another guy like Crespo who is a little too old for his league, but is displaying similar skills. Last year he played some outfield, but has been seeing more time this year again at 2B. He has no future in the OF with his vapid power. He has a good eye. A really good eye. 42 walks to 29 strikouts this year. That is awfully nice. Though he is a 24 year old in HiA ball. Backup material. He should make it to AAA, but may be 27 when he does.

Mid A
Miguel Abreu. Well, he has some power. Playing against slightly younger competition, he has shown he can hit the ball deep, but he has absolutely no ability to walk. His power should get even better, but if he is having difficulty taking a pitch in the Salley league . . . he is going to be stymied in AA and AAA ball when guys can actually pitch.

Low A
Ryan Adams. He is still young, but he has never given much of an indication he can hit the ball. Very good defense for a guy his age. He may be Brandon Fahey part duex, but younger. He was average offensively at Bluefield. With the Ironbirds, he is struggling something awful. Not Jay Gibbons circa 2007 awful, but not good. He looks like a backup as well.

Rookie Ball
Wow, are our Bluefield teams always this old? They are all in their 20s. Are we now using it to weed out college signings who play with poor competition? Anyway, here we have mercy draftee Eric Perlozzo and Pedro Silveren. Perlozzo is Sammy P's son, who is a nice kid from what I remember. A friend of mine dated Perlozzo's daughter in college . . . hmm, maybe they are married now. Anyway, he is from Shippensburg and is overmatched at the moment. Silveren? He was an international signee at age 21. Not good. He is repeating Bluefield. Not good. Perlozzo is getting most of the at bats. Not good. Anyway, I think Silveren will be going away after the year. Eric Perlozzo will probably not get the promotion to Aberdeen, but may repeat Bluefield and see it next year. I would be shocked if we ever see him in Bowie though.

Free Agency
No point, we have Roberts through '09.


Conclusion: We have nothing in the pipeline, but we don't need anything. Crespo or Tucker could be a patch job in '10. It won't be good, but it could do. If they trot back out in '11, we could be in trouble. Or . . . they could transform like Roberts and get dedicated to the gym.

Breaking Down the Orioles 40 man roster - 1B

1B
Aubrey Huff
Kevin Millar

Aubrey Huff - Huff was almost a can't miss prospect. Not much defense, but a pure hitter. He rolled out of Miami putting up big numbers in the Salley League in 1998. Plate discipline was something to desire. That tightened up as he spent a full year AA in Orlando in 99, again displaying power. The following year was more improvement at AAA and a call up to the big league club. He showed glipses of power and was considered the new wave of Devil Rays. In 2001, he saw his first full year and he was dreadful. His batting eye evaporated and he couldn't lift the ball. He was still young at 24 though. The following season begun three straight 120+ OPS seasons and a plethora of trade rumors as the Devil Rays flopped. Unfortuately for the Rays, they kept him. One and a half average seasons later and he left to the Astros. Not much happened for him on the free agent market, so we picked him up with hopes he would become dominant again. April and May of this year, he was awful as a first baseman. In June, he was good with a 120 OPS. What happened? Well, he didn't get any better. He still is not showing any power. Rather, hits are just falling in. He is just not displaying the power he used to. This is the third year in a row and it looks like we'll have to suffer because this is what the guy is. No contact, no plate discipline, and no power. Maybe he'll get hot, but I don't see much here.

4MM this year
8MM in '08 and 8MM in '09.

Prediction: He should experience more of an upturn in his production, but it would be hard to see him exceed 850 OPS. He'll give you the same production as Millar, but at 3 times the cost over the term of the contract. He is not a trading piece until his last year unless we ate a large portion of the deal. Another possibility is that he may be switched back to 3B if we do get a legit 1B on the team.


Kevin Millar (aka Mike Butcher) - The Rodney Dangerfield of the Orioles, Millar has been solid. He is the most successful scab to play the game. Undrafted out of college, he raked it in the independent leagues. The Marlins picked him up and he proceeded to fare well against minor league pitching until he reached AA at age 25 and killed them. The Marlins then brought him up. He immediately hit and never looked back. He has never had a below average offensive season. His almost defection to Japan seems bizarre. No one was going after him even though he hit a 130+ the previous year. Anyway, his power has begun to evaporate, but the wily veteran is figuring out how to be more selective and is increasing his obp%. He is good. This year, he is the Orioles second best hitter (Roberts being the best). Many fans still don't understand his value. He looks bad doing it, but he does it well. He would fit well on a team that is poised to go all the way, but needs a 1B.

Millar is signed for 2.75MM with up to ~1.8MM in bonus
2.75 team option in '08

Prediction: He is valuable. If Gibbons was not on this team, Millar would exist peacefully with the rest of the lineup. Honestly, I'd like to keep him for that second year and deal him then. Then again, this is his best year in 4 years . . . so maybe now is the time to sell. Especially when we have such redundancy on the active roster. He should keep it up. He is walking like mad and his BA/BIP is in line with his other peripherals. He should finish the year in the 800-850 OPS ranged and it will be OBP heavy, where Huff is SLG heavy. I think we will trade him at the break this year. Gibbons is just too impossible to move.


Other Options:

Mike Cervenak: 1B at AAA. Fodder. He has never sniffed the majors. Poor plate discipline. Is just in the past couple years coming through and producing . . . though doing well in AA at age 28 is not much of an accomplishment. Next.

Luis Jimenez: 1B at AA. Fodder with low probability upside. Power guy with awful discipline. 6th organization. 25 years old. Not much here.

Brandon Sing : 1B at AA. Signed from the Cubs as a minor league free agent. Has shown power and was dominant at A+ and AA . . . his second time through. He has been owned last year and this year by AA pitchers. Not sure if he has gotten injured or something, but he looks done.

Mark Fleisher: 1B at Frederick. Drafted in '05 out of Radford. He showed good power there, but questions about plate discipline, contact rate, and defense arose . . . which dropped him down to the 14th round. At Low A, he showed glimpses of power, but was easily handled. In Mid A, he again showed glimpses of power, but was easily handled. This year, is the same at Hi A. He does not project well as he is basically amounting to a mid 700 OPS type of guy. Maybe he will get it one of these days, but at best he may be a guy he sits on the bench for a couple years for a few cups of coffee and nothing more.

Chris Vinyard: Was selected in the 2005 draft as a "draft and follow" guy. He went to community college and then accepted a deal, playing in Aberdeen last year. He showed glimpses of power with a homerun every 30 at bats and a solid double rate of 1 every ten, but he also struck out 1 in 5. Still, an 855 OPS is respectable for a 20 year old. Not mindblowing, but respectable. This year he K rate is the same as is his homerun rate. His double rate actually dropped slightly. Unfortunately his BB rate also dropped a bit. He'll not be able to bypass HiA with these rates. He still has a few years to hit his stride and can be quite capable. His ceiling might be Carlos Pena, but it is still quite early. He could also be Jim Traber. Or worse.

Brandon Snyder: Well, he isn't much of a catcher anymore with his labrum injury. He is toiling in Delmarva as a 1B. He is still young and shows lots of promise. His pro debut was made as he tore apart Bluefield and Aberdeen as few 18 year olds do. 19 was a rough year for him as both Aberdeen and Delmarva spit him up. His season was ended with surgery. This year he is recovering playing 1B and will likely stay there with the assumed emergence of Mark Weiters. Snyder strikes out about a third of the time. He walks about ten percent of the time. He gets a homerun every forty at bats and a double every 15. He will need a lot of seasoning, but it looks like he can hit . . . he just . . . doesn't. He'll stay with us for two more years and then we'll have to reassess. He is nowhere near the majors, but a good growth and mental spurt in his early 20s would help. He'll never have good plate discipline though.

Free Agency
Sean Casey . . . he gets on base, but has only 1 HR in over 250AB this year. No thanks.
Tony Clark . . . maybe if it was 9 years ago.
Jeff Conine . . . two times was good enough.
Julio Franco . . . again, we need to get younger.
Mike Lamb . . . gives Millar numbers, but a few years younger . . . and platoons. Millar is more valuable and would be cheaper.
Doug Mientkiewicz . . . good glove, decent obp usually, nothing else. Not worth it.
Dmitri Young . . . poor plate discipline and old. Someone will pay him 6 or 7 though. He is playing too well this year.


Conclusion: We have nothing in the pipeline to get here soon. We are keeping Huff and betting he can be what he once was . . . he isn't though. If we can jettison Gibbons, then we'll keep Millar. If not, then Millar goes. Our closest 1B will be ready for a September callup in '10. Teixeira might be the way to go if we can.

Breaking Down the Orioles 40 man roster - Catchers

Catcher
Ramon Hernandez
Paul Bako

Ramon Hernandez - Last year he blew away everyone's expectations with 23 home runs, which was a bit misleading. He had 560 PA, the most in his career. His rate levels were right on mark with his career years the previous three seasons down in PETCO. PETCO is a pitcher's park, so that looks more and more like a downturn than a career year. This year? He has fallen down a notch or two. He averaged around a 110OPS+ the last four years (quite amazing for a catcher), but is sitting in the high 80s now (a shade above average). His OBP is solid though, so maybe it is just a growing period.

6.5MM this year
7.5MM next . . . 8MM in '09 and a 8.6MM club option in '10 or a 1MM buyout.

Prediction:
I think he will probably finish the year around 100 OPS+. '08 and '09 will see him degrade into the low 90s and high 80s. A smart team would then drop him for the 1MM, and we just may be that smart. Weiters should emerge at the tail end of 2009 (hopefully) and then we could easily find some all glove, no bat catcher to back him up and teach him a few things. Hernandez could go off to the Mariners or something like that. So, yeah, I don't see us picking that up.


Paul Bako - He is one of those catcher who sticks on for no apparent reason other than he has caught before. The professional backup catcher is a breed that sees itself employed long after they are useful. They may need to live a vegabond lifestyle, but they get work. It is the most union-like job in the MLBPA. Bako started out in the minors as a rather impressive mix of offensive power and defensive skill . . . until he reached AAA and everyone realized that . . . oh he was old for those other leagues. Well, everyone except the Tigers who handed him the starting job in '98. He had a 73OPS+, the 2nd highest of his career. Joe Oliver served as his personal caddy that year with his shiny epitome of a no hit catcher, lowriding at 56OPS+. Bako peaked the next year at 80OPS+. If he even cared about hitting, he'd give his firstborn to be that offensively dangerous again. The next five years show Paul to be a low 60s OPS+ guy. He barely was in the majors in '05 with the Dodgers. He was downright horrific last year with a 25OPS+. The Royals wasted 167 plate appearances on him that year. It was like they were playing softball with one man short. Buddy Bell, a great comedian, somehow had him hit 7th on 19 occaisions. He must think very little of Joey Gathright. Now, Angel Berroa? Yeah, Bako out hit him. Anyway, we signed him and he has bounced back to his 50-60OPS+ ways. Wow, I sure dedicated a lot of space for this. I guess this whole thing about the backup catcher annoys me. There has to be guys out there better than this.

0.9MM
performance bonus which is is likely to hit will increase it to 0.96MM . . . he has an outside chance of maxing it out to 1.06MM.

Prediction:
He is what he is. He'll probably see about 80 games this year as Ramon is likely to be wearing down. Next year? Mazzone likes having a worthless backup catcher, so Bako might be it or maybe Ramon Castro or Gary Bennett.


Other Options:

JR House - sitting at AAA Norfolk and not on the roster, he is a competent hitter. Not well proven in the majors and prone to injury. He has always had loads of potential, but that injury rate and him basically not playing any position particularly well hurts him. He seems like he can mash the ball and it would be great to see him up with the O's as a backup, but the club seems reluctant. He'll probably be fed up with the organization and look to sign on elsewhere.

Alberto Castilla - Alberto is Paul Bako's older brother. He does the same exact things as well and as not so well. They are quite the pair. He won't be much of a help either.

Eli Whiteside - He is our homegrown version of Bako and Castillo. He was slowly making his way up the minors (we had no one else) with his peak coming in AA at age 24 (older than competition) with 18 homeruns, but a .310 OBP. Eh. He got knocked down to AA to give Castillo and House some time at AAA. I'd prefer him over Bako or Castillo, just for his youth and an extra 0.5MM in the wallet to spend on draft pick bonuses.

Brandon Snyder - He raked it in his first year then got all disheveled and fell apart in '06, coming down with an injury to his shoulder. This year he is playing first base and his batting looks even worse. The thought is that he is still working on his shoulder injury and should recover, but it doesn't look good right now. Anyway, he won't be ready until '10 or later . . . and it won't be as a starting catcher. If he can hit, he'll probably go to the outfield.

Mark Weiters - He looks good to me, but I am not a scout. I see him peaking up in the latter half of '09 and making a claim on the catching spot in '10. The draft guru over at HBT looked at 3 minutes of video and thought he was a huge overdraft at the 5 spot. We'll see, I guess.


Conclusion:
We are paying top dollar for a declining catcher who, when healthy, will be at worst a league average hitting catcher. He is a good defensive catcher and that should last longer. Behind him, we have nothing of much use this or next year. Most likely nothing until Weiters pops his head up sometime in late '09 or early '10.