The 2012 Baltimore Orioles

Couldn't bring myself to write something up about the Orioles losing Game Five of the ALDS. Instead, a look back (in no particular order) at some favorite memories from 2012 (with some help from O's fans on Twitter):

* The best moment of season for me - the one that was the pinnacle of the "is this even real?" feeling that permeated everything - was Chris Davis on the mound in Boston. Not only did he pitch 2 scoreless innings, but he struck out 2 - including Adrian Gonzalez, on three pitches! For a long while, Davis had more pitcher wins than Cliff Lee. And not to be forgotten, it was an Adam Jones three-run homer that gave the O's the 9-6 win.

* There was the September 6th game against the Yankees in Baltimore - Cal Ripken Jr. Statue Day - when New York scored 5 runs in the 8th to tie the game at 6-6 (after the O's went ahead on homers by Wieters, Andino, and Reynolds). And then the Orioles countered with Adam Jones, Mark Reynolds (again), and Chris Davis each going deep in quick succession to make it 10-6 and get that W.

* There was Manny Machado coming up as a 20 year-old, when the O's needed a third-baseman, and hitting two home runs in his second game in the Majors.

* Then there was Machado with a - I dared to say - Jeter-ian play against the Rays, faking a throw to first on a grounder before spinning and catching the runner rounding third.

* There were the packed houses in the home games of the ALDS, as the play-offs finally came back to Baltimore. And the Orioles coming back after a tough lose in Game One to get back into the Win Column (!) in Game Two.

* There was the return of the cartoon Oriole Bird.

* There was Chris Davis being strong enough to hit a broken bat home run. And strong enough to destroy a baseball against James Shields, who struck out 15 on the day, to give the O's a 1-0 win.

* There was Miguel Gonzalez, who no one expected to do anything (and most had never heard of), pitching like a top of the rotation starter for stretches - especially in Yankee Stadium.

* There was Adam Jones hitting a walk-off home run in the bottom of the 12th against the Phillies. And hitting the game-winning home run in the top of the 11th in Seattle. Starting the year scorching hot. Signing a contract to keep him in Baltimore for years to come.

* There was the previous day's game in Seattle that went 18 excruciating innings, before Taylor Teagarden drove in the winning run in the wee hours of the morning (for us watching on the East coast, at least).

* There was JJ Hardy hitting a game-tying home run in the bottom of the 13th against the Tigers after the O's fell behind, and then Teagarden sending everyone home happy with a two-run bomb three batters later. 

* There was the joyous celebration in the locker room after the O's beat the Rangers in Texas in the Wild Card game.

* There was Joe Saunders pitching well in helping the team win elimination games in the play-offs. Twice!

* There was Nate McLouth walking the O's off with a single against the Rays (driving in Manny Machado), and then Chris Davis carrying him around on his shoulders.

* Heck, there was Nate McLouth in the ALDS, being the best position player on either team, after months of jokes about the Orioles actually playing Nate McLouth.

* There was that crazy finish in Baltimore against the Yankees, where Mark Teixeira grounded into a game-ending double play (but not really). Mark Reynolds, Lew Ford, and JJ Hardy all took CC Sabathia deep in that one.

* That came shortly after the Orioles took two of three in New York, with Mark Reynolds hitting two home runs in each of those victories.

* There was Ryan Flaherty capping a six-run first inning against the Red Sox in their final series in Baltimore by hitting a grand slam.

* There was Matt Wieters capping a six-run 10th against the White Sox with a grand slam earlier in the year, giving Flaherty the idea.

* There was Nick Johnson going 0-26 in April, but getting hit by pitches three times and stealing a base.

* There was Omar Quintanilla doubling his career home run total (from 3 to 6) in the span of about two weeks.

* There was Mark Reynolds patenting his "fall-down" stretch at first-base.

* There was Darren O'Day throwing funny but almost always effectively, Pedro Stop never giving up runs early in the season (and his hat), Jim Johnson saving oh so many games with a dirty sinker, Tommy Hunter touching 100 mph as a reliever, Brian Matusz being almost untouchable out of the pen, and even Kevin Gregg sometimes not being awful (or it not mattering given the O's were behind when he came in). Also Troy Patton still paying dividends from that Miguel Tejada trade.

* There was Steve Johnson making his father - and a lot of other O's fans - proud, somehow throwing a 90 mph by people (and that 65 mph curve!).

* There was Jason Hammel adding a new pitch and potentially turning into a top of the rotation type starter.

* There was Chris Tillman finding some of the velocity we thought was lost forever, and bringing hope back for his career.

* There was Buck getting ignored by Mark Reynolds when looking for a high five.

* There was the Orioles somehow, someway, winning yet another one-run game.

* There was extra-inning win after extra-inning win after extra-inning win...

* There was Orioles Magic. There was a lot of it. Maybe more than we'll ever see in a season again. And it was awesome.

ALDS Game Four: Orioles 2, Yankees 1

Elimination game. Joe Saunders on the mound. The Orioles had the Yankees right where they wanted them.

The Good:

• Joe Saunders did it again, pitching around just enough guys to not have it come back to bite him while inducing a couple double plays (including one on a long flyball that Nate McLouth made a great catch on and was able to double off a runner). Can't complain at all about 5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 4 BB, 5 K. The best part was probably Saunders striking out Derek Jeter after a lengthy at bat, and then following up by K'ing Ichiro and Mark Teixeira.
• The bullpen came through. Tommy Hunter blew 97 mph fastballs by A-Rod. Troy Patton got Curtis Granderson. Luis Ayala managed to strand some inherited runners. Brian Matusz got Robbie Cano. Darren O'Day is the best (2.2 scoreless, K'ing A-Rod again - third time in the series). Pedro Strop showed that he was not only still alive, but why he was counted as one of the team's better relievers early in the season with 2 scoreless of his own (with 2 K's). And Jim Johnson closed it out.
• If you knew that the Orioles had given an outfielder almost $90 M this year, based on this series you'd have sworn that it was to Nate McLouth and not Adam Jones. Beyond the defense, McLouth homered, doubled, and walked at the plate. You could argue that he's been the best position player on either team so far. Nate McLouth!
• Manny Machado - all of 20 years old - not some of the best at bats on the team. He worked a walk early, and then lead off the 13th with a double before scoring the winning run on JJ Hardy's own two-bagger.

The Bad:

• The offense is still almost entirely a black hole. Chris Davis struck out 3 times and looks not very much like he did during his hot streak to end the season. Adam Jones looks completely lost. Matt Wieters might be close to doing something, but is just off enough to keep popping out (or popping one down the third-base line for a hit). Jim Thome getting benched for Lew Ford might be the right call at this point, as Thome can't seem to actually hit anymore and some of the ball/strike calls are making his plate discipline not so useful. Hard to say if Mark Reynolds is slumping or not, because him taking an 0-fer and K'ing twice isn't exactly "new" - hope he runs into one at some point though.

The Final:

Extra-innings again, and this time the Orioles held strong, eventually scraping one run out and making it stand up. This series has been unbelievably close, with either team easily having been able to sweep in three games if a break had gone their way in each game.

And so it comes down to Game Five. Jason Hammel (3.43 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 3.46 xFIP) going up against CC Sabathia (3.38 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 3.20 xFIP). Can the Orioles continue the Magic?

Chris Tillman: What Changed?

While Joe Saunders was announced as the game four starter instead of Chris Tillman, who has had a stand out half season, it seemed like a good enough time to take a deeper look at Tillman and try to figure out just what changed from the last two seasons to this year.

Tillman arrived as a key piece in the Bedard trade back in 2008, where he was the 67th overall prospect on Baseball America's list in 2008. Tillman arrived with a lively FB that could reach mid 90's, and a looping hammer curve combo that had scouts drooling. During his first season in the Orioles organization he put up spectacular numbers, often overwhelming opposing batters in AA Bowie (where I saw him a few times) before moving up to AAA for the last half of the season. In AAA, his numbers were even better than in AA and it seemed like the Orioles had a legit future SP on their hands. In 2009, he continued to put up good numbers in AAA before getting the call to the big league club just before the trading deadline and despite a 5.40 ERA in 12 starts, the potential could be seen. Unfortunately this is a trend that would continue on through 2011. Some starts in AAA, some starts in MLB, a stellar start where it looks like he had figured things out, followed by a shellacking where he didn't make it through 4 innings. This was a pattern. That is until 2012, where he began the season in AAA and once again found himself called to the big league club in July, this time however, the results were much different.

In the 2012 regular season Tillman put up a 9-3 record in 15 starts with the Orioles, pitching to a 2.93 ERA and improving many of his peripheral numbers that he has had success with in the minors but could never get them to that level in the majors. Improvements in BB/9 (2.51) and K/9 (6.91) as well as avg allowed (.205) and WHIP (1.05) have led him to a successful season in the majors, and there is even more potential there, as he has had years in the minors with numbers closer to 10 K/9. That begs the question: What has changed?

Two years ago the Orioles scrapped Tillman's long-loopy curve in favor of a more compact power curve that has slightly different tilt, instead of the straight over the top 12-6 break, now it's more of an 11-5. Also at the same time he developed a cutter, which started taking pitches away from his curve and change up. The biggest impact in this down period for Tillman was a 2 mph drop in velocity across the board, which is interesting considering "cutter-gate" this season in reference to Dylan Bundy, his cutter, and the views and opinions of Dan Duquette and Rick Peterson. Between the fastball command problems he's always had, the drop in velocity, and the adjustment of a new pitch, he became very hittable at the ML level.

In 2012, under the watchful eye of Rick Peterson, Tillman gained back the 2 mph he had previously lost in 2010, improved his fastball command, lowering his walk rates, and keeping his home run rates down. Chris also traded in some of the cutters he was throwing for an improved change up, which he now throws considerably harder than the 78 mph offering he had thrown before. Coming in at an average around 84 mph with sharper movement than before, he throws the change about 14% of the time now compared to closer to 10% before. He has always thrown his fastball around 60% of the time, which is why the velocity and command are so important to his success. His ground ball % is actually the lowest of his career this year, and his K% is lower than it has been in the minors at just over 6%, however he's been getting more flyballs that stay in the park, as well as more infield pop ups mostly due to well placed FB and the harder change up. His .205 average against has gone a long way towards his success this season and has laid the ground work for that potential that he has teased for three years to finally be realized. Tillman will be a candidate for the 2013 rotation come spring training, it's up to him to prove himself again and earn it though, since that is the New Oriole Way.

ALDS Game Three: Orioles 2, Yankees 3

It all comes down to three games in New York, where the Orioles went 6-3 this year. That bring should bring some confidence, but it's still the Yankees at home in the play-offs. A Hiroki Kuroda vs. Miguel Gonalez match-up could go pretty much any which way, but Gonzalez's season high in strike-outs of 9 came in New York against the Yankees. And his second highest was 8 in... New York, against the Yankees. So there is that.

The Good:

• Miguel Gonzalez continued his almost inexplicable domination of the Yankees; 7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 8 K. Just a fanastic start, hitting his spots and throwing the fastball by people. This is the same guy who had a 6.17 ERA in Double-A last year. Amazing.
• Darren O'Day pitched. Given his recent performance, I don't really need to elaborate. But I will, because the strike-out he go in his perfect inning was of Derek Jeter.
• Nate McLouth had two hits and stole a couple bases. Well, he stole one base after being "caught" the previous time, when he got in to second safely but was "helped" over-sliding the bag by Derek Jeter's tag (and, perhaps, foot).
• The one person to bet on Ryan Flaherty being the first Oriole to hit a home run this post-season - maybe is mother? - can collect their infinity dollars. Ryan Flaherty!
• Slightly less surprising but still really awesome was Manny Machado going deep as well (and his wasn't one of those cheap Yankee Stadium homers like Flaherty's was). 20 years old, hitting a home run against the Yankees in New York in the play-offs. Just a tiny bit more impressive that what I was doing at 20. 

All of the above was written before the 9th inning. Notice the happy tone! Didn't feel right to erase it, as those good things did happen. But oh boy are they going to be forgotten quickly.

The Bad:

• Adam Jones did pick up a hit - a grounder through the infield - but still looked bad at the plate (pressing?). He also "allowed" New York's first run when he took a poor route on a flyball over his head in center-field that turned into a two-out RBI triple.
• JJ Hardy, Matt Wieters, Jim Thome, and Mark Reynolds went a combined 0-19. Hard to score if almost no one hits, and can't win if you don't score.
• Raul Ibanez. Homers off Jim Johnson to tie the game in the 9th (pinch-hitting for A-Rod), and then homers off of Brian Matusz to win the game in the 12th. Raul Ibanez is going to be remembered by O's fans just like Jeffrey Maier, I suspect. Probably worth writing more on this but... can't.

The Final:

No words. Just horrible, horrible feelings...

The O's can still win this series, but their chances have shrunk dramatically. Given that they took a lead into the 9th, they absolutely had to win this game.

Brooks vs. Adrian: Who's the Better Glove?

The other night during the Orioles' one game Wild Card Showdown against the Rangers, Cal Ripken, Jr., who was doing color commentary, mentioned that he thought Texas slugger Adrian Beltre was the best fielding third baseman he had even seen. When Ernie Johnson, the play-by-play man, questioned whether Beltre was even better than Brooks Robinson, Cal hesitated a bit, then responded in the affirmative. Yes, Cal Ripken, Jr. believes that Adrian Beltre is a better defensive third baseman than Brooks Robinson.

But is it actually true? In my opinion, it's impossible to reliably compare defense across eras but we can try. Using Baseball-Reference.com's Defensive WAR calculations (based on Sean Smith's Total Zone rating), we can at least see how dominant each player's defense was compared to their peers and see how it shakes out.

Brooks Robinson was a major league regular three years before Cal Ripken was born and was well on his way to his first Gold Glove when Cal was born in 1960, the first of 16 consecutive Gold Gloves that Robinson would win. While I'm certain that young Calvin Edwin was watching Orioles baseball all his life, he probably couldn't be a good judge or even recall much of those early years watching Brooks man the hot corner. Most of Cal's recollections are likely from the time his age hit double digits. Cal would have been 10 at the beginning of the 1971 season so we can start from there. Brooks played full time and at a high level from 1971-1975. In 1976 and 1977, he played sporadically and poorly. So for the sake of this post, I will assume Cal's memories of Brooks as a great player come mostly from the 5 season span from 1971-1975.

We will compare those 5 seasons to Adrian Beltre's most recent five seasons and see how they stack up.

Here are the top 10 third basemen in terms of Fielding Runs over the last 5 seasons as reported by Baseball-Reference.com:

                                           
Rk            Player Rfield From   To   Age
1      Adrian Beltre     91 2008 2012 29-33
2      Evan Longoria     71 2008 2012 22-26
3        Scott Rolen     46 2008 2012 33-37
4    Placido Polanco     39 2008 2012 32-36
5      Jack Hannahan     36 2008 2012 28-32
6       Brett Lawrie     34 2011 2012 21-22
7     Ryan Zimmerman     34 2008 2012 23-27
8       Brandon Inge     28 2008 2012 31-35
9     Kevin Youkilis     27 2008 2012 29-33
10         Joe Crede     26 2008 2009 30-31

By this measure, Beltre is the best and it's not even close. Even if you assume what Evan Longoria could've done if he'd been healthy this season, Beltre likely would beat him by 10 fielding runs. (By the way, how good is Brett Lawrie's glove? He's right in the middle of this list despite only 168 major league games under his belt.)

Here are the top 10 third basemen in term of Fielding Runs from the 5 season spanning 1971-1975:

                                             
Rk              Player Rfield From   To   Age
1      Brooks Robinson     90 1971 1975 34-38
2        Graig Nettles     83 1971 1975 26-30
3         Mike Schmidt     38 1972 1975 22-25
4              Ron Cey     36 1971 1975 23-27
5           Buddy Bell     35 1972 1975 20-23
6        Darrell Evans     31 1971 1975 24-28
7    Aurelio Rodriguez     29 1971 1975 23-27
8       Eric Soderholm     26 1971 1975 22-26
9         Ken McMullen     16 1971 1975 29-33
10        Jerry Kenney     16 1971 1973 26-28

It's Hall of Famer Robinson and Graig Nettles (who probably should be in the HoF) and nobody else. For the 5 season spans for each player:

                    Rfield   rTZ
Adrian Beltre         91      42
Brooks Robinson       90      83

So it could be argued that Beltre was a wee bit better than Brooks over the two 5-year spans in question. Although, in terms of Total Zone, a Gold Glove caliber defender will score a TZ of 15 or more in a season. Brooks had 4 out of 5 of those seasons with a TZ of 15 or more. Beltre had none.

And as you my have noticed, these were Beltre's age 29-33 seasons; Robinson's were from his age 34-38 seasons. If we look at Robinson's 5 seasons from the same age span, he has an Rfield of 97 and three seasons over 15 rTZ, all over 20 and two over 30. Beltre's never had quite that kind of run.

Athletes get better as the years go by. It is very possible that if you took Beltre back to the 1960's he would have been Brooks' superior with the glove. But since we have to judge these things in the context of the eras they played, you have to compare their relative dominance to their peers. And given all that, I'd have to respectfully disagree with Cal. Adrian Beltre may be the best defensive third baseman of his generation but I don't think he's any match for Brooks Robinson.

The Camden Highball (Episode 3): The Fan Never Dies

On the podcast today, we are recording on the Orioles/Yankees ALDS travel day.  I (Jon Shepherd) am joined by Nick Faleris from Baseball Prospectus.  We discuss a good deal about the series so far.  I discuss how attending Game 2 of the ALDS had an effect on my fandom, including the feeling to argue balls and strikes when you are 400 yards from the plate.  The Janitor, Jim Johnson, is discussed at length about whether he is elite, postseason performances, and the future.  Jones also gets a bit of a spotlight for his troubles at the plate.  Finally, we preview the upcoming games in New York and how I think everything is in the Orioles' favor at the moment. The recording was made Tuesday night (October 10, 2012).

Episode 3 of the Camden Highball

00:00:00 Music - Watchin' the Orioles by Songs from the Moon (in full at end of podcast - 00:38:30)
00:00:14 Greetings from Jon and Nick
00:01:44 Jon Shepherd's Experience at the Yard for Game 2, the Sadness of the Press Box, and Relating to the Grinch
00:07:15 Nick Commenting on the Dichotomy of Fandom and Analysis
00:12:22 The Janitor - Making Messes and Keeping Order
00:23:39 Constant Concern and Good Fortune
00:27:40 Preview for Games 3 through 5 in the ALDS

We are available on iTunes.  It stands to be quite an exciting series of games between now and then.  If you have any question you would like to pose to us, feel free to mail them via CamdenDepot@gmail.com or via the Camden Depot Facebook page.

ALDS Game Two: Orioles 3, Yankees 2

Even if tonight's game wasn't literally a must-win, going to New York down 2-0 would have been mighty troublesome for the Orioles. They needed a good start from Wei-Yin Chen, and to actually score some runs against long-time O's nemesis Andy Pettitte.

The Good:

• Given that the strength of the O's pitching staff was supposed to be the bullpen, it might be mildly surprising how decently the starters have pitched so far. Wei-Yin Chen continued the trend; 6.1 IP, 8 H, 2 R (1 ER), 1 BB, 3 K.  Another trend was Buck Showalter hanging with his starter too long, letting Chen come out for the 7th to see the Yankees line-up for the 4th time. Two hits and a run later, and he was pulled for Darren O'Day (who struck out A-Rod, the only batter he faced) - though O'Day probably should have started the inning (and this time Buck got burned).
• And Brian Matusz continued his stellar relief work, pitching 1.1 scoreless innings and striking out a pair. And he's not just a LOOGY, as some suggest; right-handed batters against Matusz the reliever are now just 1-25 with 9 K's to 2 unintentional walks.
• Jim Johnson was once again called on in the 9th, and this time he delivered; two easy groundouts and a strike-out of Alex Rodriguez.
• Chris Davis picked up a pair of hits, and drove in 2 runs. He's continued swinging a hot bat in the post-season.

The Bad:

• For much of the game, many O's batters seemed to just be flailing at the ball at the plate. Notably Adam Jones and Manny Machado to my eye, but they certainly weren't the only offenders.
• JJ Hardy made a rare error at short, and Matt Wieters allowed a rare pitch to get by him behind the plate. Mark Reynolds made an error (no one surprised there).
• More Wieters; a throw in the 1st had Ichiro dead to rights at home, but Wieters made a couple of lunging tag attempts that allowed Ichiro to evade him and end up getting in there safely. Amazing play on Ichiro's part, but Wieters has to find a way to turn that into an out.
• More Hardy; in the 3rd, he failed to score from second on a single by Adam Jones and stopped at third. He would have been in there if he had went, and the third-base coach was waving him in, but Hardy didn't pick him up and instead allowed A-Rod to fool him at third.

The Final:

Huge win for the Orioles, who tie up this series. They'll need to take two of three in New York, but they're perfectly capable of doing that (they went 6-3 there this year). Exorcised some demons, beating the Yankees in a play-off game, with Jim Johnson closing things out. Another one-run with for the O's; just like they wrote it up. Have to say that watching this game was way, way more stressful than watching the O's go for win #70 late in September (as in previous seasons). But I'll take the trade-off, to watch some October baseball in Baltimore.

ALDS Game 2 Preview

Game 1 of the ALDS was everything Orioles fans have come to expect from this team, until the 9th inning. It was a close, hard fought game with a staff ace performance from CC Sabathia, and a strong showing by Jason Hammel and the stand out Orioles bullpen, a 2-2 game into the top of the 9th didn't surprise many people. An uncharacteristically off night from stellar closer Jim Johnson ended in a 7-2 Yankees win, but that is just one game, and this team has already moved on and is thinking about game two.

This is not a team that mopes about losing a tough game, they will come out for game two ready to even this series up before heading to New York, and there is not one player in that clubhouse that doesn't believe that is exactly what will happen. Johnson has been lights-out all season, and had his worst outing of the season at a very inopportune time, however what is done is done, and Buck won't hesitate to run him out in a 1-run game in the top of the 9th tonight. That's just what great closers do, they forget about a bad inning as soon as they hit the dugout, they forget about a bad pitch as soon as they step on the rubber for the next one. Jim Johnson will be alright, and so will the rest of the Baltimore Orioles.

Andy Pettitte has dominated the Orioles throughout his career, but he has not faced them in over two years. With a career 27-6 record against them, he has more wins against them than any other team in his 16 year career. He has a lifetime record of 16-4 with a 4.11 ERA in 23 career starts at Camden Yards. Matchup to watch: Adam Jones who hits .353 lifetime against Pettitte. Oriole pitcher Wei-Yin Chen threw 24 innings against the Yankees this season, going 1-2 in four starts. Matchup to watch: the HR. Chen has given up 6 HR in 24 IP against the Yanks this season, no one player has had outstanding success against him, it's been someone new each game, so he needs to focus on not giving up the big hit at the wrong time.

A lot of Monday Morning Buck Showalters out there have been criticizing Jones for not bunting Hardy over to 2nd when he led off the 8th with a single. General rule is that you don't want to take the bat out of your best player's hand with a bunt, and not scoring in that situation is just another example of how this team gets a little too reliant on HR. Despite losing a couple mph on his pitches this season, Pettitte is still a crafty left handed veteran, and his numbers are in line with his career averages when extrapolated. For the Orioles to win tonight, they are going to have to get to Pettitte early and give Chen a little breathing room.

This series is far from over and no one is going to roll over tonight, but taking one of these games at home is key for the Orioles to win the series. With a date with Kuroda looming as the series switches back to NY, it is important to get a win here and not face elimination in every road playoff game this season, even if they are 1-0 so far in them. With the largest crowd of the season toughing out a nearly 3 hour rain delay last night at Camden Yards, the team will need more of that tonight, getting the crowd involved has been a welcome surprise as the season has gone on, as it has been a long time since this team has played for full, raucous crowds, and that atmosphere has helped to excite the young players and give them more motivation to win.

Not that they need more motivation than their own manager. Buck Showalter was jettisoned by his previous teams the year before they went on to a World Series victory the following year in both New York and Arizona. With eliminating Texas already,who advanced to the ALDS the year after firing Buck, the Buck revenge tour rolls on, facing another of his former employers. If Arizona had made the playoffs, Hollywood themselves could not have delivered a better script. It's time for the team to rally around their rock and win for Buck. It's time to #BUCKleUp.

ALDS Game One: Orioles 2, Yankees 7

Orioles. Yankees. The two teams fought until the bitter end for the AL East title, and now square off in the AL Division Series. New York sent ace CC Sabathia to the mound, while the O's countered with Jason Hammel, who was their best pitcher this year but had barely appeared in the Majors in the last two months (though Hammel did have a slightly lower FIP this year, 3.29 vs. 3.33). Even playing in Baltimore, the match-ups probably favored the Yankees.

The Good:

• Jason Hammel's command was shaky (he left some balls up in the zone, and mostly got away with it) and so was his control (walked 4). But he had some movement on his pitches and some giddy-up on his fastball (down a tick from his 2012 average, but still 92-94), and was able to minimize the damage. Like with Joe Saunders on Friday, Buck stayed with Hammel longer than I (and many, judging by the comments on Twitter) thought was prudent, and once again it worked out fine. Can't complain too much about 5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 4 BB, 5 K. It was good enough that I'd be comfortable seeing Hammel make a potential Game Five start.
• Darren O'Day continued his fantastic season, coming in with two on and none out and getting Jeter (who bunted), Ichiro (with Andino throwing to Wieters to cut a run down at the plate), and A-Rod (K'ed him swinging).
• Brian Matusz followed O'Day, walking Teixeira but striking out a pair (Swisher, Granderson) in pitching a scoreless 8th.
• Nate McLouth had another clutch hit, driving in two runs to give the O's an early 2-1 lead. 
• Chris Davis picked up a couple hits against Sabathia, and made some nice plays in right-field (including fielding a bounce off the scoreboard and gunning the runner down at second).
• Lew Ford had two hits as well - one a double.

The Bad:

• Troy Patton only retired one of the four batters he faced, walking the first two batters of the 7th inning before being pulled. His teammates picked him up though.
• With the game tied going into the 9th, Buck went to Jim Johnson* to face the bottom of the Yankees' order. Given that CC had saved the NY pen completely at that point, I probably would have left Matusz in there (and first guessed this decision). Lead-off better Russell Martin took JJ deep for the game-winning home run. Then four more hits to pile on and make it 7-2. He retired one batter. Not a good night for Johnson, following the "interesting" outing he had in Texas. He could have picked a better time for the regression to hit.
• The O's had multiple opportunities against Sabathia (including a lead-off double by JJ Hardy in the 8th), but just couldn't get the runs across when they needed to. Adam Jones and Matt Wieters were a combined 0-8 - the Birds need those guys to produce in this series.

* Just want to note that the problem isn't that it wasn't a save situation - using a closer in a tie game is generally somewhere between fine and good - but that Matusz should have been able to pitch another inning and saving Johnson for the next inning in case the game went to extras might have made more sense. It is funny that we've gone from "Jim Johnson doesn't have the closer mentality - he can't pitch in save situations" to "Jim Johnson can only pitch in save situations".

The Final:

Given that it was tied going into the later innings, this was a game the Orioles had to win. No matter the O's record on the road and in New York this year, winning both games in Baltimore was very big for them in this series. Just a huge punch in the gut in that 9th inning. Go get 'em tomorrow, I guess. As Jeff Sullivan said, the "Orioles [are] in position to win the series with a negative run differential". I'd take that.

The ALDS: How They Match Up

                                                         Credit: Steph Diorio

As our talented friend Steph Diorio illustrated above, the Orioles emerged Friday night riding high above the Texas Rangers in the Wild Card round of the 2012 AL Playoffs. End result, 5-1 Orioles and a date with division rival New York Yankees in the ALDS. Before 2012, one might have looked at the Orioles versus Yankees as another David versus Goliath matchup. The Orioles with their fourteen consecutive years of losing seasons and less than $82 million dollar payroll versus the Yankees, perpetual playoff favorites with just about $198 million in payroll for 2012. This 2012 season just goes to prove why the game isn't played on paper.

In hindsight, 2011 featured a bit of foreshadowing for the Baltimore Orioles. A scrappy team in 2011, the team was beginning to see which players were part of this team for the long haul and which players just weren't going to remain in their roles long term. In the last series of the season, facing the Boston Red Sox who were fighting for their playoff lives, the Orioles knocked them out of contention with a dramatic upset win on the final day of the season. That attitude and successful underdog persona followed the team into 2012. After getting off to a hot start, the Orioles were fairing much better than anyone had expected, but just about everyone kept saying to wait, that they would regress to the norm soon enough, everyone that is but the team itself.

At the end, 162 regular season games, and one do or die wild card game later, the Orioles find themselves at home on Sunday evening facing their division rivals to start a best of five series that will see either the upstart underdogs, or the most expensive team in all of baseball going home. For this series, the previous 14 years don't matter, the payroll amounts doesn't matter, even expectations don't matter. For the 2012 series the teams evenly split an 18 game season series 9-9 with the Orioles outscoring the Yankees 92-90.

Pitching Matchups:             2012 Statistics Versus Orioles
NYY                                 IP      Record      K    BB     ERA

Sabathia                         18.1      0-2        19      6       6.38
Kuroda                            15.1      1-1         7       1       2.93
Pettite                                                  N/A
Hughes                            22.2      2-2        19      4       4.76

BAL                              2012 Statistics Versus Yankees

Hammel                         16.0       0-1       14       7      3.94
Chen                             24.0       1-2       18       6       5.25
Tillman                           8.0        1-0        5        2       6.75
Gonzalez                       13.2       2-0       17       1       2.63
Saunders                       5.1        1-0         2       2        3.38

The Orioles were actually 3-6 at home and 6-3 on the road against the Yanks this season, after starting off the series 0-4 at home in the first four games, so home field might not be such an advantage after all. One thing is for sure, Camden Yards will be a completely different environment on Sunday and Monday than it was for the first 5 home games of this series.

Other details that should be mentioned, Andy Pettitte, the Yankees game 2 starter has been an Oriole killer his whole career with a 27-6 record and 3.52 ERA in 40 career starts against them. The announced starters for games 1-3 are Sabathia v. Hammel, Pettitte v. Chen, and Kuroda v. Gonzalez as of right now. Look for Buck to try to matchup late in the game to try to match Cano against lefties where he is much less effective, while trying to keep Teixeira matched against righties where he is less dangerous.

The key to success for the O's is to get some quality innings out of their starters, to get to that bullpen that is so effective with a chance to win the game.  When division rivals meet in the playoffs almost anything can happen, the one thing you can be sure of however, is that the Orioles will fight until the final out and at this point, you shouldn't bet against them.