Dan Duquette has been pretty active on the trade market since taking over the helm. Most of those trades have been for rather minor pieces with Duquette giving up fringe prospects. This series of articles is trying to illustrate exactly what the Orioles have lost and acquired in their deals during the Duquette era. Perhaps by doing this exercise, we can see how well he has performed in the past and maybe what it means for any deals that may go down in the coming weeks. I will be splitting them into the 2012, 2013, and 2014 seasons.
December 1, 2011
C Taylor Teagarden for RHRP Randy Henry and INF Greg Miclat
The Orioles were in need of a backup catchers after years of organizational neglect. The Rangers wanted to reorganize their resources, had Yorvit Torrealba and Geovanny Soto as backups, and were willing to dangle the once promising Teagarden. The Rangers agreed on receiving a promising relief arm in Henry and a Rule 5 survivor in Miclat.
The result has been somewhat inconsequential on both sides. Teagarden was often injured and a poor performer when healthy although he did occaisionally come through with a much needed hit now and then. Henry followed solid minor league relief campaigns in 2012 and 2013 with a horrible beginning to 2014. Miclat has had injuries and poor performance chase him. He is currently doing poorly in AA for the Cardinals.
Depot Thoughts at the Time: I would prefer John Hester backing up Wieters and keeping both Henry and Miclat. I may disagree with the deal, but it is not worth making much fuss over.
Conclusion: -0.7 bWAR; Push.
December 8, 2011
LHP Dana Eveland for INF Tyler Henson and LHSP Jarret Martin
The Orioles were in need for starting pitching and their new scouting talent supposedly noted that Eveland had developed into a different pitcher. The Dodgers had an abundance of starting pitchers and knew they could not hold onto him, so he was dealt Henson, organizational filler, and an interesting southpaw in Martin.
Eveland did not become the new pitcher that the Orioles hoped he would be. He spot started a couple times and moved into relief where he was not particularly effective. He then went to Korea. This year, he has appeared out of the Mets' bullpen and has done well in middle relief. For the Dodgers, Henson provided good organizational depth in AAA. For the past two years, he has done the same for the Phillies. He has yet to see the Majors. Jarret Martin still remains an interesting pitcher, but he has almost no control of his pitches and hopes are faint that he ever will.
Depot Thoughts at the Time: I am not particularly impressed with Eveland and find it rare that
players all of a sudden break out. That said, the value being exchanged
here between these teams is minimal.
Conclusion: 0.2 bWAR; Push.
February 6, 2012
Jeremy Guthrie for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom
The Orioles were falling out with Guthrie and wanted to spend the 8.2 MM he would get in arbitration in other ways. The Rockies wanted a proven veteran in their rotation to be a capstone piece and we were to deal a marginal backend arm and a good reliever. In other words, it was a quantity for quality deal with some savings for Baltimore.
What happened was that Guthrie completely fell apart for the Rockies and was eventually dealt to Kansas City for Jonathan Sanchez, who also exploded in Colorado. In Kansas City, Guthrie found himself again and has strung two of his best seasons in the Majors. For the Orioles, Jason Hammel was a revelation when healthy. He found another level with his two seamer and was often dominant on the mound. Although injured through the stretch run, he was a major reason why the Orioles made the playoffs. Lindstrom was rather dominant in the pen as well and was a decent enough chip for the Orioles to secure Joe Saunders in August as a replacement for Hammel.
Depot Thoughts at the Time: If you take the above to heart and find Hammel and Guthrie equivalent
then a second control year of Hammel and Matt Lindstrom are just gravy.
and for the Saunders deal...
This is certainly not a game changing trade. Few deals in August are
game changers. However, the Orioles have been able to convert their
abundance of relief talent into improving the talent available for
starting pitching. As long as the player to be named later is no one of
great importance, this is a solid deal looking to go as deep as
possible this year.
Conclusion: 5.4 bWAR; Orioles
April 21, 2012
Josh Bell for Mike Belfiore
By April 2012, Josh Bell was no longer viewed as the future of third base for the Orioles. The promise he showed the summer he was traded for with George Sherrill had not be duplicated in the two following seasons. His ability to tee off of left handed pitchers in AAA did not translate to the Majors and he could never tough right handers. Add to that some questionable defense and there really was not much for him to offer the club. The Orioles cashed him in for the Diamondback's low minors relief arm, Mike Belfiore.
After the trade went through, Bell continued to be decent in AAA play and horrendous in the Majors. Mike Belfiore made one appearance in the Majors and pitched admirably for the club in the minors. Faced with a roster crunch in April 2014, the Orioles designated him for assignment and the Detroit Tigers picked him up. In Toledo, the strikeouts have decreased and the walked have inched upwards, but few batters are crossing the plate.
Depot Thoughts at the Time: No comment or, at least, none that I could find.
Conclusion: 0.3; Push
June 30, 2012
Jim Thome for Gabriel Lino and Kyle Simon
At the time, the Orioles needed some help when Nick Markakis went down and Chris Davis had to trot out to right field. The team was underwhelmed with what Nick Johnson was doing at the plate. The fading Phillies had Jim Thome. Thome turned heads in June after smashing the Orioles in an interleague series. The Orioles, amazingly in the playoff conversation, pulled the trigger and handed the Phillies a relief pitcher with an interesting arm (Kyle Simon) and a defensive catcher with some pop (Gabriel Lino).
Jim Thome was largely a non-factor with the Orioles as he was a substandard DH who played in only 28 games over the final three months of the season. On the Phillies side, Simon was put into a relief role and has had trouble achieving success at the AA level. That is better than Lino, who still has some defense, but his bat is incapable of hitting HiA pitchers.
Depot Thoughts at the Time: In all likelihood, I see this as happening. Thome hits pretty well and
leaves the team at the end of the year. The Orioles will likely finish
in fourth or fifth place, but with a record that is about 15th to 18th
best in the league. Kyle Simon will fade out in AAA at some point.
Gabriel Lino will eventually get a cup of coffee, impressing people on
his defense and making them wish he could square up more.
Conclusion: 0.0; Push
August 13, 2012
Carlos Rojas for JC Romero
With conversations about to result in Matt Lindstrom being sent away, the Orioles needed more depth in their pen. The Orioles added to their pen a lefty who had once been successful, but was struggling with the Indians. The cost was a career minor league infielder who was essentially organization filler. It was a minor deal with a minor outcome.
Depot Thoughts at the Time: No comment.
Conclusion: 0.0; Push
Final Tally
5.2 bWAR
Almost all of the value Dan Duquette acquired in his deals were the products of his trades for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom and the later deal for Joe Saunders. These acquisitions, somewhat arguably, are the reason why the Orioles made the playoffs. It could be argued as well that someone not named Duquette would have kept Jeremy Guthrie and not acquired Wei-Yin Chen, who was a free agent. Perhaps someone not named Duquette also would not have signed Nate McLouth. These were the final strokes that brought this club over the top.
The cost has been for a large number of players who are either no longer in baseball or may be able to pull out a couple years middle relievers. In other words, he gave up pretty much nothing. Ignore the release of Alfredo Simon and the signing of Tsuyoshi Wada, Duquette was flawless.
Showing posts with label Jason Hammel. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jason Hammel. Show all posts
10 July 2014
01 July 2014
Orioles Starting Rotation (Still) Needs Improvement
As I begin writing this post with the table below, I get
that feeling of déjà vu, like I’ve already done this before (several times in
fact)…
The table above shows the 2014 rankings of Baltimore’s starting
pitching staff in various statistical categories. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the
Orioles are currently right in the middle of the playoff race, and they could
desperately use an upgraded rotation to increase their chances of reaching the
postseason. This has actually been the
case since the team began its recent run of contention in the “magical” 2012
season, so that feeling of déjà vu is warranted, as improving the starting
rotation is a topic that’s been discussed during every trade deadline and
offseason since.
Let’s take a look at how the members of the 2014 rotation
have performed individually.
The good news is that the team currently has only used 6
starters to date (they led the league with 14 and 12 the past two years, which
is a list that you don’t want to lead).
The bad news is that no one has really been all that exceptional. Their best starter (Chen) is ranked 64th
in all of baseball (in terms of wins according to Fangraphs). The two nominal best starters on the staff
(Chris Tillman and Ubaldo Jimenez) haven’t pitched anywhere near the level
their capable of, and their peripheral statistics don’t suggest that they’ve
been unlucky either. Bud Norris has
pitched admirably, but he’s also a regression candidate during the second half
(and is currently on the disabled list). Gausman appears to be the only bright
spot right now, producing 0.6 fWAR in only 28 innings pitched.
The Orioles already have 6 starting pitchers for 5 spots, so
the acquisition of another starting pitcher should result in 2 current rotation
members either transferred to the bullpen removed from the roster (traded,
optioned, released, etc). Maybe Wei-Yin
Chen will be moved to fill other roster holes (as Jon suggested earlier this week), however, that won’t be the focus of this article. Let’s take a look at who may be available for
the Orioles to get at the trade deadline (salary obligations are from the beginning of 2014 season).
Tier I
- David Price ($14 million in 2014, FA in 2016)
- Cliff Lee ($62.5 million guaranteed through 2015)
- Cole Hamels ($118.5 million guaranteed through 2018)
These pitchers aren’t realistic options for a wide variety
of reasons (intra-division trades, injury, prospect/monetary cost, etc.). Let’s move on.
Tier II
- Jeff Samardzija ($5.35 million in 2014, FA in 2016)
- Ian Kennedy ($6.1 million in 2014, FA in 2016)
- Jason Hammel ($6 million in 2014, FA in 2015)
- A.J. Burnett ($22.5 million through 2015)
- Brandon McCarthy ($10.25 million in 2014, FA in 2015)
With that in mind, let’s go through these 5 starting
pitchers listed above to see if there is a good fit.
Jeff Samardzija
Samardzija is having a great season and is probably the
biggest difference maker out of everyone in this group. However, as Matt noted in early June, the
Orioles may need to include Dylan Bundy or Kevin Gausman in a deal to get him,
which he thought would be too much to part with. I am inclined to agree with him.
Ian Kennedy
Kennedy is having his best season since he was a Cy Young
candidate for the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2011.
He’s striking out more batters than he ever has while also keeping his
walk rate below his career average. His
ERA may not look all that great (4.01), but you could argue that he’s been
unlucky, as his FIP currently sits at a much lower 2.93.
Kennedy has been a fly ball pitcher throughout his career
though (41.8%), which has been a benefit to him the last couple of years
pitching in San Diego and some of the other spacious NL West ballparks. Because of this, he’s likely not good fit for
Camden Yards.
Jason Hammel
Hammel is having the kind of year that the Orioles were counting
on last year, when he was the team’s opening day starter. He’s accumulated 2.1 fWAR in just over 100
innings pitched. Statistically speaking,
his season is very similar to that of 2012, with the exception of much lower
walk and groundball rates.
Last year, the Orioles traded Jake Arrieta, Pedro Strop, and
international signing money to the Cubs for Scott Feldman and Steve
Clevenger. Like Feldman, Hammel will be
a free agent at the end of the year, so the Orioles may be able to make a
similar deal to get him, allowing Baltimore to keep their top prospects. However, at this time last season, Feldman
was approximately half as valuable as Hammel currently is in terms of fWAR, so
the price to acquire him could easily be higher.
A.J. Burnett
While Burnett hasn’t been as good with the Phillies as he
was with the Pirates, he could be a decent upgrade at minimal cost. There are causes for concern though as he’s
now 37 years old and he’s not missing as many bats this year. If the Orioles are willing to pick up his
remaining salary, the Phillies may not need much in prospects to make the deal
happen, as long as they accept the fact that they’re not going to be contending
this year. Burnett can block trades to
21 teams, but it’s likely he would accept a trade to the Orioles, as they were
one of the few teams he was considering in the offseason.
Brandon McCarthy
McCarthy really hasn’t been having all that good of a
season, but he also may be the unluckiest starting pitcher in all of
baseball. Take a look at some of his
2014 statistics compared to career levels.
He hasn’t really caught a break in 2014. His ERA is over 5, but his FIP is at
3.88. And if you normalize his home run
rate (HR/FB rate is double his career level despite a 22.4% fly ball rate!),
his xFIP sits at a very enticing 2.92.
Despite the high ERA, he’s accumulated more fWAR (1.0) than any other
Orioles starter in 2014. The problem is
that the rest of the league has also noticed how unlucky McCarthy has been, and
he’s drawing a lot of trade interest.
Brian Kenny will love this: #DBacks’ McCarthy drawing trade interest despite 1-10 record. ERA is 5.38, but FIP is 3.99. Plus: 80Ks, 18 BB.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) June 25, 2014
----------------------------------
The 2014 Orioles rotation has been one of the worst in all
of baseball. Trading for one upgrade
probably doesn’t increase the team’s odds of making the playoffs that much higher. Because of that, even a trade for David Price
this very minute would only add 1.2 additional wins over the course of the rest
of the season if you account for the fact that he would replace Bud Norris or
Chris Tillman in the rotation (each projected by Zips to produce 0.7 fWAR, the
lowest projections for any Baltimore starter). * With such a marginal upgrade, I don’t think
it would be worth giving up any of Baltimore’s top 3 prospects in any deal for
starting pitching this year.
*This
assumes Kevin Gausman remains a member of the rotation for the rest of the
season, with Miguel Gonzalez in the bullpen or the minors.
In order for Baltimore’s rotation to really show
improvement, the team will not only have to gamble on a Brandon McCarthy, A.J.
Burnett, or Jason Hammel pitching well the rest of the season, but they’ll also
have to gamble on at least one or both of Chris Tillman and Ubaldo Jimenez returning
to form. And if the price to acquire one
of the three pitchers mentioned above is centered around Mike Wright, Tim
Berry, or Zach Davies (Baltimore’s 6, 7, and 8 prospects according to Baseball
Prospectus), I think that would be a gamble that’s worth taking.
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