Parra Is An Improvement, But To What End?

Parra is Back in Orange and Black

As we have mentioned on several occasions, the Orioles are on the edge of playoff contention with a large number of clubs.  Some, like the Blue Jays, have seen their place on the threshold as a time to cash in on their bevy of prospects to improve their chances.  Some, like the Rays, have decided to largely stand pat and see how things roll out.  The Orioles are showing themselves as somewhere in the middle. 

In Gerardo Parra, they have acquired a once shining young player whose defensive acumen and offensive potential made some analysts think he would be the greatest corner outfielder of the 2010s.  His bat stalled out and regressed after a promising 2011 season.  His stellar defense deteriorated in 2014, leading the Diamondbacks to deal him out for two promising, but run-of-the-mill, prospects in Milwaukee's low minors.  A year later, the defense looks worse based on the metrics, but he is having a career offensive year.

The good news is that Parra's defensive free fall appears to be the product of being forced into centerfield a few too many times and Milwaukee's outfield being unable to help cover his fading range.  That can be resolved with the Orioles.  The club has experience protecting a player with fading range.  Adam Jones was often used to shade Nick Markakis to help out with balls ranging into right-center.  Additionally, right field for the Orioles plays somewhat tighter than Milwaukee's stadium, so Parra should be fine as long as he can play the carom.  Of course, this all goes out the window if he is placed in Camden Yards' open left field.

The bad news is that Parra's second breakout offensive season of his career looks to be held up by a lot of smoke and a plethora of mirrors.  He is enjoying a BABIP of .372, which is about 50 points more than his established career average.  He is hitting fly balls at an abnormal pace and his home run per fly ball is about 35% greater than what should be expected from him.  As a lefty in Camden Yards, he should not experience a great free fall, but his offensive performance should be expected to drop significantly.  If he plays right and replaces a left fielder in the lineup, a reduction in performance should still be a net positive.  If he plays left, then it might well be a push.

With all that in mind, what we are looking at is an improvement of zero (if his bat returns to normal and he stands out in left field) or, maybe, 2 wins (if his bat remains hot and his fielding becomes stellar again without negatively impacting the rest of the outfield).  More likely, I think we are in the 0.5 range, which is a value of about 7 MM, which is about what a 45 rated pitcher is worth in the middle of summer.

Zach Davies is a lower second tier prospect in AAA.  He should be a permanent fixture in the Majors next year if everyone accepts that he is a middle reliever.  If the Brewers insist on him being a starter, it will likely take a few years for him to cement himself into a rotation.  Davies has good fastball command, but it is a pitch that sits around 90.  His changeup is solid.  His curve is a bit of a mess, but has seen improvement.  If all those come together, you have the makeup for a fringe mid-rotation arm, which is quite valuable.  However, it is easy to dream on flashes of potential.  More likely, he becomes a fastball/changeup pitcher who has a show me curveball to try to disrupt an at bat.  I have difficult accepting that he will be a meaningful arm in the Majors.

In the end, it is a fair deal.  It is a deal that has a great deal of potential for the Orioles, but a low probability of that potential being reached.  For the Brewers, it helps add another chip to the pile and increase the likelihood of stable of arms in hope that one or two breakout or at least enable the club to stitch together a cheap, effective bullpen.  I think it is difficult for either fan base to be upset with the deal.  That said, I think it is a poor deal for the Orioles only in that it removes another mid-level prospect from one of the most talent poor farm systems in baseball for a two month rental and that it uses a mid-level prospect as a center piece for a mid-level trade instead of using a mid-level prospect as a complementary piece to a deal pinned by an elite prospect (i.e., Gausman, Harvey, Bundy).  I think the deal does little to impact the clubs fortunes in making the playoffs and, probably, does little to impact the talent pool in the minors.  All in all, shrug.

The Cavalry - Six Starting Pitchers for the Orioles' Future

In an earlier piece, I looked at the six current members of the Orioles starting rotation and shared my opinion that, while five of them are good pitchers capable of contributing to a championship team, none are likely to be an ace that pulls a team to a pennant or are likely to win a postseason game on his own. In this article, I will look at six starting pitcher prospects in the Orioles system and share my opinion on how they might fit. Two are highly-touted former first-round draft picks whom many project as potential aces - Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey. Two are pitchers who have already reached AAA and therefore could pitch in the majors as soon as next season - Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson. And two are pitchers who have progressed through the minors and pitched at AA Bowie last season; they could possibly be ready in the second half of 2015 but 2016 is a more realistic possibility - Tim Berry and Zach Davies.

I have not personally seen Bundy, Harvey, or Berry pitch. I've seen Mike Wright once in 2013 at Bowie, once in 2013 at Norfolk, and nine times in 2014 at Norfolk. I've seen Tyler Wilson once in 2013 at Bowie (I saw one 2013 Bowie doubleheader; Wright pitched the first game and Wilson the second) and five times in 2014 at Norfolk. I've seen Zach Davies pitch once, in 2013 at Frederick.

The Future Aces - Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey

Of all the pitchers in the Orioles' farm system, two have been mentioned as potential future aces. Dylan Bundy has, according to Baseball America, been the Orioles #1 prospect for the past three seasons and remains their #1 prospect today. Bundy has also been among BA's top fifteen prospects in all of baseball for the past three seasons, peaking at #2 after 2012. Hunter Harvey was the Orioles #4 prospect after the 2013 season (behind Bundy, Kevin Gausman, and since-dealt Eduardo Rodriguez) and has moved up to #2 today. Although Baseball America hasn't released their top 100 prospects for 2015, both Bundy and Harvey are likely to be on the list. Bundy and Harvey do have the potential to be aces, but their chances to become aces have been reduced by injuries.

It is important to appreciate that 99% of all prospects who begin playing professional baseball as teenagers look worse after a couple of minor league seasons than they do when we first hear of them. Analysts and scouts haven't seen the weaknesses that can be exposed by a higher level of competition. Projected physical development either doesn't occur or occurs in a sub-optimal way. Players either get complacent with big money or discouraged by failure. It's a rare player - a Mike Trout or a Miguel Cabrera - who is every bit as good as we think they will be when they are first signed. So it's not a major disappointment that Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey appear less likely to be stars than they did two years ago.

Dylan Bundy was drafted #4 overall in the 2011 draft, out of high school. As most of us know, Bundy was considered to not only have premium stuff but also advanced pitching skills. He made his debut in 2012 and dominated both levels of Class A before "merely" pitching well in three Double-A starts. He even made a couple of appearances with the Orioles, and fans were looking forward to him being a key member of the 2013 staff, perhaps after a half season in the minor leagues.

Unfortunately, as we know, Bundy experienced elbow discomfort in spring training 2013; he elected to try rest and rehab before finally undergoing Tommy John surgery in June. He missed all of 2013 and most of 2014 recovering. When he pitched in 2014, he was dominant in 3 Summer Class A starts and so-so in 6 Advanced Class A starts.

While most prospect watchers still consider Dylan Bundy a top prospect, based on his amateur pedigree and 2012 season, the fact is that we have absolutely no idea what he will become. Some pitchers recover completely from Tommy John surgery; other recover partially; and still others don't recover at all. And there is really no way to predict who will recover and who won't. The biggest question I have is whether or not the way Bundy pitched before his surgery - what's generally called mechanics - will work with the post-surgery Bundy. He's dealing with two years - ten percent of his life - of changes and has to suddenly adapt to them. We won't know if he can become the ace the Orioles staff lacks until we see how he performs in 2015.

Hunter Harvey is further away; he was the Orioles #1 draft pick in 2013. He pitched very well in short-season ball after signing and began 2014 pitching brilliantly in Class A Delmarva. He leveled off but still was having a very good season until he suffered an injury in a late-July start. It was diagnosed as a strained flexor mass in his elbow. The Orioles have been monitoring his injury and so far rest and rehabilitation seem to be working; surgery hasn't yet been necessary. I have no reason to believe that surgery will be necessary except that more often than not surgery is required to heal elbow injuries.

Hunter Harvey is not as good a prospect as Dylan Bundy was at the same age and level. At age 19, in his first full season, Dylan Bundy pitched better than Hunter Harvey and did so at a higher level, even reaching the major leagues. Bundy was a once-in-a-decade talent; he's the only teenager to have pitched in the major leagues since 2006. Hunter Harvey pitched well, but every season there's a 19-year-old pitcher who does what he does - pitch well in Class A. Harvey's 2014 season was probably not the best 2014 by a teenaged pitcher in the South Atlantic League; 19-year-old Nationals farmhand Lucas Giolito was better.

In 2010 Arodys Vizcaino, aged 19, had a season comparable to Hunter Harvey's 2014. Vizcaino has battled injuries and now is trying to make it as a relief pitcher; he still has the chance to be a closer. In 2009, several teenaged pitchers had years not too different from Harvey - Jordan Lyles, Wilmer Font, Stolmy Pimentel. It's too early too completely write any of them off, but none project to be aces. Before that, things get more complicated because teams were less protective of teenaged pitchers and often allowed them to pitch more innings than Hunter Harvey. The point is not that Hunter Harvey won't be good; it's that he's a long way from the major leagues and we shouldn't expect him to be an ace, based on what he's done so far.

The Immediate Help - Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson

I've written before (here, and here) about Mike Wright. In brief, I thought Wright was very unlikely to have much of a big-league career because he lacked a put-away pitch. Wright's final seven 2014 starts were outstanding; he pitched 47 1/3 innings with a 0.95 ERA. But even then, he didn't pitch as well as his ERA - in those 47 1/3 innings he allowed 35 hits and had an 8-37 walk-to-strikeout ratio. Good numbers to be sure, but not as impressive as a 0.95 ERA. It should also be noted that among those two starts were back-to-back one-hitters against the Durham Bulls. So, basically, my opinion of Mike Wright hasn't changed much - his upside appears to be that of an innings eater at the back of the rotation, and probably one who won't last more than a couple of seasons.

Two points about Mike Wright are worth noting. He's been very durable, pitching more than 140 innings in each of the last two seasons. And he may have a problem with concentration - I've seen him pitch two games in which he was given a large early lead (7-0 after 1, 6-0 after two) and in each game he gave it back and his team lost. 

I also wrote about Tyler Wilson and felt that his upside was similar to Mike Wright's - back of the rotation starter. Wilson doesn't have great stuff, but he was effective because he commands it so well. While most pitchers who have great command of ordinary stuff don't develop into consistent major league pitchers, there are exceptions such as Doug Fister. Wilson seems to be an intelligent young man who knows his limits, and I can see him becoming a contributor to a championship team.

Both Wright and Wilson give the Orioles flexibility to trade one of their current starting pitchers, say Miguel Gonzalez or Bud Norris. While I think both Wright and Wilson need another couple of months at Norfolk to finish their development, it's easy to see either of them starting the year in the Baltimore rotation if they impress in spring training.

The Next Tier - Tim Berry and Zach Davies

While neither Tim Berry nor Zach Davies have the draft pedigree or the hype of Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey, both have progressed consistently through the Orioles system and are close to being ready for the major-league rotation. Berry, the only left-handed pitcher among the six discussed in this article, was signed to a six-figure bonus as a 50th-round draft pick on 2009. He underwent Tommy John surgery after signing and didn't really pitch until 2011. He struggled in 2011; he then regained his control in 2012 and for the last three seasons has been consistently around 2.7 walks and 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings. He's maintained his results as he's moved up the organizational ladder, pitching at Advanced Class A Frederick in 2013 and AA Bowie in 2014. He's been solid rather than spectacular.

So far, Tim Berry has pitched in the minor leagues with similar BB/9, K/9. and H/9 ratios as Zach Britton had in the minor leagues and Wei-Yin Chen has in the major leagues. Berry turns 24 in March and will likely pitch in AAA Norfolk. Berry would benefit from a full 2015 in the Norfolk rotation; with Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson the Orioles should be able to do so. I can see Berry replacing Chen in the Orioles 2016 rotation if Chen goes elsewhere as a free agent.

Zach Davies, like Tim Berry, was a late-round draft pick signed to a six-figure bonues. When I saw him  pitch for Frederick in 2013, I was unimpressed. He was a slightly-built righthander who relied on control to get batters out. Pitchers with that profile typically don't succeed at higher levels. But in 2014 Davies improved at AA. His strikeout rate increased from 8 to 9 strikeouts per nine innings. More interestingly, his walk rate increased slightly, which in his case is a good sign - he was getting his increased strikeouts with improved stuff, rather than tricking less experienced hitters. Despite that, most scouts don't project Davies to improve his fastball, and so he doesn't project to be an ace but rather as a potential middle-to-back-of-the rotation starting pitcher.

In summary, the Orioles look to be well equipped to continue the success they've enjoyed in the last three seasons with their starting pitchers. Not all six of these pitchers will develop as we hope, but the Orioles have four advanced pitchers with success at higher levels and two prospects with top-of-the-rotation potential but some question marks. There's no reason to expect the Orioles to struggle because the starting pitching falls apart.

A Trade for Martin Prado Solves a Present and Future Problem

Since the calendar has turned to July, Camden Depot has looked at several ways the Orioles could improve through the trade market, including the starting rotation, which has needed an upgrade for a couple of seasons now.  Similarly, second base has been a position that has needed an upgrade since the peak Brian Roberts years, which ended after the 2009 season.  In 2014, Jonathan Schoop, Ryan Flaherty, Jemile Weeks, and Steve Lombardozzi have manned the keystone for Baltimore, with Schoop taking the majority of the playing time appearing at second base in 80 games.  Collectively, they’ve been about replacement level (0.1 fWAR), thanks primarily to their defense, since each of them have been a well below average hitter in the first half.  As mentioned above, Schoop has played the most at second base, and has been 40% worse than the average major league hitter (60 wRC+).  For a team that is currently in the driver’s seat of the AL East and likely to contend for a playoff spot, they need to get more production out of the position.

Luckily for the Orioles, there are a lot of second base options out on the trade market this year, which would drive the theoretical price of acquiring one down.  However, there are also a lot of contenders that need help at second base, which drives that same theoretical price back up.  Consider the fact that the Athletics, Yankees, and Marlins all rank lower in second base fWAR than the Orioles, in addition to the Braves, Indians, Cardinals, Giants, and Royals who are all above the Orioles, but still located in the bottom half of the rankings.  Now, all these teams won’t make a move at the deadline for a second baseman, but they’re definitely in the market for one.

As I stated above, there are plenty of second baseman available, including (in order of highest fWAR at the break) Chase Utley (3.1), Ben Zobrist (2.8), Daniel Murphy (2.5), Emilio Bonifacio (1.1), and Aaron Hill (-0.6).  It’s unclear whether the Phillies will trade Utley, though I’d bet against it (and if they do I’ll have to repost last year’s Ode to Utley with updated statistics) and Baltimore would likely have to pay the dreaded intra-division premium for Zobrist, ruling those two out.  Unless you COMPLETELY missed the title of this post, I would propose trading for a second baseman that isn’t even on this list, because he’s only played at second base for a total of 35 innings in 2014.  That player is Martin Prado.

Prado has played all over the field in his professional career, logging innings at every position except for centerfield and catcher.  According to advanced defensive metrics, Prado is an above average defender at every position he’s played except for second base.  Over almost 2,000 innings at the keystone, he’s been worth -6 Defensive Runs Saved, slightly below average.  With the bat, he’s an extreme contact hitter who doesn’t strike out much, walk much, or hit for much power, so his ability to get on base is dependent on his batting average.  Batting average can sometimes be finicky, but with a career triple slash of .291/.340/.425 (AVG/OBP/SLG) in nearly 4,000 PA’s, you pretty much know what you’re going to get out of him.

While Prado is having a down year (.274/.320/.367) despite a BABIP (.310) that is nearly his career value, his 89 wRC+ in 2014 is much better than any other Baltimore option*.  Not counting Jemile Weeks, who only has 13 PA’s, Ryan Flaherty is the closest with a 78 wRC+.  It’s true that both Schoop and Flaherty have been above average defenders this year.  So while Baltimore would lose a little bit defensively by sliding Prado in at second (a loss that is mitigated by the fact that the Orioles pitching staff does not give up many ground balls), you gain much more offensive production, especially if Prado returns to his career levels.  When adjusting for the same number of PA’s, the Zips projection system at Fangraphs sees Prado as being worth 0.5-0.6 wins more than either Schoop or Falherty the rest of the 2014 season.

*the decrease in production appears to be from an IFFB% of 14.1 (4.5% higher than career level) and a HR/FB% of 5.1 (2% lower than career level)

But wait, there’s more!  Following the 2014 season, Prado is under contract for two more years at $11 million per year, covering his age 31 and 32 year old seasons (i.e. he’s not that old).  After this season the Orioles could easily let J.J. Hardy become a free agent, move Manny Machado to shortstop, and slide Prado over to third base, which opens up second base for…Jonathan Schoop.  This is what makes a Prado acquisition so beneficial to Baltimore.  While the Orioles have several high upside pitchers in their farm system, there aren’t any position players who are close to helping the major league club.  Prado’s positional flexibility also allows Baltimore to offer Hardy a qualifying offer (if they want to), knowing that if he accepts it, Prado could move to potential openings in left or right field.

Last week, Jim Bowden of ESPN looked at Martin Prado in his “What Would it Take to Get…” series (ESPN Insider required and recommended).  He listed the Blue Jays and Giants as possible destinations.  He mentioned that a Toronto deal would likely be centered around CF prospect Dalton Pompey (plus a throw-in), while a Giants deal would likely need to include relief pitchers Heath Hembree and Steven Okert.  If that’s the case, maybe a Josh Hart and one of Mike Wright, Tim Berry, or Zach Davies may do the trick.  As a writer, proposing a trade is usually a terrible idea, but I think that package would at least have the Diamondbacks considering the proposal.

Adding Martin Prado in the middle of a playoff race will definitely help the Orioles, but it certainly won’t instill confidence in Jonathan Schoop.  Having said that, playoff opportunities don’t come around every year and the team needs to take advantage of this chance while they can.  Jonathan Schoop is still a big part of this team’s future, but Baltimore needs to upgrade second base for 2014.  A trade for Martin Prado will provide that upgrade in 2014, while also filling potential roster holes at third base or in the outfield in 2015 and 2016.