Along with closer Zach Britton, Brian Matusz, and T.J. McFarland,
the acquisition of Miller gives Baltimore 4 left handed options in their
bullpen. The table below shows how each
pitcher has fared during the 2014 season.
As you can see, Miller has been outstanding this season. He’s accumulated the 11th most
wins above replacement (according to Fangraphs) of all relievers in baseball. He’s posting career bests in his strikeout
rate, walk rate, and it’s not even particularly close. There is no doubt that his addition improves
an already steady (yet unspectacular bullpen), as the Orioles now have another option
they can feel very comfortable bringing into the game during high leverage
situations.
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| New Oriole Andrew Miller (photo via Keith Allison) |
Adding Miller to the bullpen probably means that at least
one of the other three lefties in the bullpen will have to go. Britton,
who has been reborn as the team’s closer this season, isn’t going anywhere, so
that leaves McFarland to be the one to be sent down. However, the beauty of the Miller deal is
that the Orioles don’t HAVE to make room for him by moving McFarland
to the minors. Miller isn’t your typical
left handed reliever, as he has been extremely effective against both left and
right handed batters, holding them in 2014 to a .194 wOBA and .243 wOBA,
respectively. This can allow the team to
transition Matusz permanently into the LOOGY role. This is a good move for both Matusz and the
team, as right handers have hit him very hard this year, to a tune of
.304/.389/.507 (AVG/OBP/SLG).
For the privilege of having Andrew Miller pitch
approximately 20 innings in the Orioles bullpen (Miller will be a free agent
after the season), Eduardo Rodriguez goes to the Red Sox. Baseball Prospectus ranked Rodriguez as the 4th best prospect in the Orioles system prior to the start of the season, and No. 61 in their overall Top 101. At the time,
his ceiling was that of a No. 3 starter.
He has struggled this year pitching in AA (4.79 ERA) and spent over a
month on the disabled list. So while he
may still hold that ceiling, it doesn’t look quite as likely that he’ll reach
it, as it did before the season. I don’t
believe the Orioles will necessarily be “haunted” by Rodriguez potentially
pitching for a division rival over the next 6-8 years, but make no mistake, the
Orioles gave up a good prospect in this trade.
If the Orioles were a team with fewer glaring holes (like
the Nationals, pre-Ryan Zimmerman injury), this trade would make a lot more
sense. In other words, Baltimore is not
a team that was one bullpen piece away from being the prohibitive AL East
favorites. I don’t believe that
Rodriguez should have been untouchable, but I do think his value could have
been leveraged in a more productive way.
Yes, the bullpen needed an improvement, but there was a greater need to
provide an upgrade to the rotation or at second base (topics we’ve discussed
this month on several occasions). Using
Rodriguez as a centerpiece in a trade and building a package around him for either
of those spots would have been more productive.
To illustrate my point, the following table shows the number of wins above
replacement (according to the ZiPS projection system) each of the three players
will be worth the rest of the season.
In the best-case scenario, Miller replaces McFarland, and
the Orioles gain 0.4 wins the rest of the year.
That is not insignificant, but it’s not exactly the difference maker
you’d hope to get for a top 100 prospect.
* - The article originally stated that Brian Matusz had an option remaining. That is not the case.
* - The article originally stated that Brian Matusz had an option remaining. That is not the case.