For the Post FanFest Hangover

Enjoy!

Cup o' jO's: Rick Peterson and the O's Arms

Just a quick entry this morning...

Rick Peterson and his pitching lab will apparently be in full effect for the Orioles in 2012.  His analytical technique has been hailed as a major prevention tool against injuries.  I have disabled list numbers of starting pitchers from part of his tenure with the A's and all of his tenure with the Mets, giving us a time line from 2001 to 2007.  I also have disabled numbers of Orioles' starting pitchers in 2009 and 2010.

Rick Peterson
2001 - No starting pitchers visited the DL
2002 - 3 DL visits, 84 missed days
2003 - 3, 60
2004 - 3, 91
2005 - 3, 205
2006 - 5, 382
2007 - 3, 215

I am not sure what to make of the above except to note that much of the injury issues with the Mets were with aging retreads as they tried to fill out their pitching rotation for another post season run.  I look at those numbers and they appear to be quite impressive.  Although, he did have one of the more unfortunate statements to have been uttered during his time with the Mets.  He noted that he could fix Victor Zambrano's performance in "ten minutes" while Scott Kazmir was at least three years from performing in the big leagues.  Zambrano, as many expected, quickly fell apart and Kazmir becames the Rays' ace.  At the time and in hindsight, it was an awful deal and incredibly perplexing.

Now, looking at the Orioles
2009 - 4, 304
2010 - 4, 192

That does not appear to be much different than the end of Peterson's run with the Mets.

In a future post, I hope to get into these numbers a bit deeper.

Trading Adam Jones: AL Central Edition

The post will focus on a baseline that was suggested by a scout.  So, yes, the opinion of a single professional is how we will value Jones' worth here.  What is that worth?  It was posited that Adam Jones would be worth a top 25 player, a top 50 player, and a top 100 player.  In other words, I would translate this as meaning a A-, B+ and B level player.  One final way of looking at it, a 60, a 56, and a 52.  That means that some in this business think very highly of Adam Jones.  We at the Depot have not thought as highly of Jones in the past, but what matters is who values him the most.

This fourth part will focus on packages from AL Central teams.

Chicago White Sox
Dayan Viciedo, RF
Addison Reed, RP
Gordon Beckham, INF

I think it is often a good exercise to go through and look at each team.  How each team matches up.  The White Sox are obviously a poor fit.  Right now they are going through an Orioles style rebuilding project.  That basically means that are trading away fringe value pieces and inexplicably holding onto their guys with real value.  Their minors is thin which hurts teams wanting young players in return and works against the ChiSox's new goal to beef up their system.  A deal here centers on Dayan Viciedo who is a promising player, but there are questions about his hitting approach with poor discipline and a need for more power.  Much of the hope statistically on him is based on his rapid improvement in walk rate as he faced AAA pitching for the second year in a row.  The other major piece is the struggling Gordon Beckham.  Beckham promising breakout in 2009 is now overshadowed by poor 2010 and 2011 campaigns.  He has developed a habit of chasing really bad pitches.  He is a reclamation project.

Cleveland Indians
Matt LaPorta, 1B
Jason Kipnis, 2B
Michael Brantley, LF

The Indians system thinned out a bit with last year's acquisition of Ubaldo Jimenez.  Otherwise, LHP Drew Pomeranz would have been the target here.  The second target would be Jason Kipnis.  I have always been a big Kipnis fan, lobbying hard in 2009 for Nick to draft him in our Orioles shadow draft.  He logged 150 plate appearances last year and showed a strong bat and the potential to stick it out at second base.  I think the team control on him and his offensive production will make him a hard target to acquire, but one you have to insist on.  The bat certainly looks real, but with his difficulties at second the bat looks not quite as shiny if it needs to be moved to left field.  I also focused on acquiring a couple disappointing prospects and second tier arm.  Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley are two prospects who came over in the CC Sabathia deal and have disappointed.  LaPorta has never shown the power and contact rate he displayed in the minors.  He does not have much more rope left.  In Michael Brantley the Indians have someone who has logged a couple years and is approaching his more expensive team controlled years.  His two major failings in the Majors have been a lack of meaningful contact and an inability to hit left handed pitching.  Adding a little more salt to the wound, his approach in left field leaves one wanting, but he does have the ability to be average if not better out there. Brantley could also be exchanged out for someone like Zach McAllister.

Detroit Tigers
Casey Crosby, LHP
Nick Castellanos, 3B
Andrew Oliver, LHP

The Tigers at first look like a bad fit with Austin Jackson in center.  However, Jones is a clear upgrade to Jackson with the bat and potentially with the glove.  The Tigers could also pay deference to Jackson and shift Jones to a corner position.  However, shifting Jones to a corner position reduces his value to the team and makes him less of an attractive piece to acquire.  Additionally, the Tigers give up good pieces that should be of use to them.  Crosby and Oliver are not far away from potentially providing meaningful contributions to the big league club. Castellanos is a very good prospect who could be developed by the club or dealt for a player that more fits the team's needs.

Kansas City Royals
Wil Myers, LF
Christian Colon, INF
Tim Melville, RHP

This trade almost makes sense if not for the Royals being set in their outfield.  Alex Gordon finally accomplished with his bat what everyone thought he was capable of doing.  Jeff Francoeur had a career year.  Melky Cabrera broke out big in a career year as well.  All of these guys were in their age 26 or 27 year, so it makes some sense that these performance may be real and qualify as what one might expect from their peak seasons.  For a team like the Royals it would make more sense to use any trade chips to beef up their pitching instead of going after Jones. 

Minnesota Twins
Miguel Sano, 1B/LF
Eddie Rosario, OF
Niko Goodrum, SS

Budget issues, Denard Span, and stopgap Ben Revere make this a difficult place for Jones to land.  Add that to the general feeling that the Twins are trying to retool as opposed to push for the playoffs and it just does not seem like a fit.  Sano would be the prize here.  Oriole fans can often be heard gnashing their teeth when hearing of Sano because the Orioles were turned off by his 3.5 MM price tag and instead took that money along with another million, investing it in Garret Atkins.  Good times.  Of course, Sano is still a very raw hitter who strikes out far more than should against not too advanced hitting.  He is young and could develop into a monster bat.

Conclusion
Adam Jones simply does not appear to easily fit for any team in this division.  The White Sox and Indians appear not to be in the market for Jones and their packages rely far too much on reclamation projects with too much service time already used.  I could see the Tigers being interested as they fill out their outfield.  It appears they are set with Jackson in center and Delmon Young in left field.  The Royals have the young talent to offer, but they sport an outfield that is entering into their peaks years and is reasonably priced.  I also simply do not see the Twins choosing to spend so much to fill a position that they already have coverage with the difficulties they face with their budget allocations already.  However, of those deals...I'd like to find something with the Royals and then the Tigers.  It still appears the only logical place so far for Jones to go is Atlanta.

Kyle Hudson's Draft Excluded Status

In one of his posts, Roch Kubatko wrote the following:

Hudson can't be placed on waivers and outrighted to the minors before March because he's "draft excluded." The Orioles must trade or release him. They can re-sign him if he's released, but he can't play for them before May 15.

Roch apparently believes that surrounding mystery around quotation marked designations improves the beauty of sports journalism, I guess.

What does it mean to be draft excluded?

It is a player who begins the season as a minor leaguer who would be eligible for that December's Rule 5 draft and is added to the 40 man roster between the draft signing date (August 15th) and the deadline for the Rule 5 draft.  This player can be traded at any time during his draft excluded status, but cannot be designated for assignment until 20 days prior to opening day.

Therefore, Kyle Hudson, a draft excluded player by being added to the 40 man roster in September, must pass through waivers and given his outright release.  Apparently, there is a May 15th deadline as well that I did not know was in effect.  This means that Kyle Hudson will not be an Orioles in 2012.  He will sign with someone else assuming the May 15th date is correct.

What is the specific language?

MLR 6 (e)

DRAFT-EXCLUDED PLAYERS. A player who is excluded from selection in a Rule 5 Selection Meeting because the player was promoted to a Major League Reserve List after August 15 of the championship season preceding the selection meeting and remains on a Major League Reserve List through the conclusion of such selection meeting shall be referred to as a "draft-excluded player." A draft-excluded player shall not be directed to perform for, assigned to, or otherwise transferred to a Minor League Club unless the player first receives a trial with the player's Major League Club lasting until 20 days before the opening day of the following Major League season. See Rule 10(e)(6) (Restrictions on Waiver Requests) for rules concerning when waivers may be requested on a player who would become a draft-excluded player and Rule 10(d)(5)(B) (Consideration for Assignment of Player; Selected or Draft-Excluded Player) for rules concerning the waiver claim price for a draft-excluded player.

Rule 10(e)(6)

Assignment waivers may not be requested on the contract of a player who stands to become a draft-excluded player, as described in Rule 6(e), during the period beginning five days following the last day of the World Series and ending 25 days prior to the opening of the championship season of the year following the year the player became a draft-excluded player. If waivers are obtained, no assignment may be made pursuant to such waivers until 20 days prior to the opening of the championship season of said year.

I do not see anything about May 15th.

Is Reynolds Going Back to Third the Best Move?

Last week it was announced that Mark Reynolds reprieve from third base has ended and he will return to the position that so flummoxed him in 2011.  It was an awful season.  A season where many of us winced when batted balls suggested they were heading to the hot corner.  Over at Camden Chat, Andrew expressed his negative reaction upon hearing the news.  I would be surprised if he was alone in his frustration.  Me?  I shrugged.  I find myself shrugging a lot lately.  In this post, I would like to go beyond shrugging and try to understand what Reynolds did last year and how that informs us on what should be done with him this year given the current roster.

First, it is good to look at the numbers in a historical context.  In 114 games at third, Reynolds' defense was measured as -18 runs there.  That equals what Bob Aspromonte (1967; 144 games), Todd Zeile (1993; 153 games), David Wright (2009; 142 games), and Danny Valencia (2011; 147 games).  Reynolds accumulated that deficit while playing about 30 fewer games than the players he tied.

As you would expect, those with greater deficits typically played fewer games at the hot corner. Worse seasons were Greg Norton's (1999; -19; 120 games), Jim Presley's (1990; -20; 133 games), Joel Youngblood's (1984; -21; 117 games), Toby Harrah's (1979; -21; 127 games), Fernando Tatis' (1999; -22; 147 games), Edwin Encarnacion's (2007; -22; 137 games), Mark Teahan's (2005; -24; 128 games), Joe Torre's (1971; -25; 161 games), Ty Wigginton's (2003; -28; 155 games), Gary Sheffield's (1993; -31; 133 games), and Ryan Braun's (2007; -35; 112).  Braun's season is of special note because his rate of losing a run every 3.2 games is almost twice as unproductive as Reynolds' rate (6.3 games per lost run).  Keep in mind though that in general, a bad defensive third baseman is one who loses a run every 15 games.  Reynolds certainly was not the historically worst third baseman to log significant time in the field, but he was the worst regular with only Houston's Chris Johnson as his only serious competitor.

So...why push him back to third base after such a dreadful, soul crushing year?  Well, Reynolds wanted to go back to third.  A player's wishes only go so far though, so those wishes had to be in concert with what the organization as a whole wanted to do.  Reynolds' 2007 year may be a bit of a career year in terms of awfulness.  He has typically been a player who would give up about 10 runs over the course of 150 games.  That fits neatly with the one lost run every 15 games level of badness.  His ability to take a walk and to force fresh white baseballs into the pitcher's hand for the subsequent batter has typically more than made up for his glove of stone.  You could suggest that his 2011 year was not indicative of his true talent level and that he will regress upward to being bad at third instead of being somewhat historically bad.  You could also suggest that even though the 27-30 age seasons are a time of offensive peaking that this is about the time where defense begins to deteriorate for many players.

For this post, I decided that it might be good to compare how the roster could fill in with Mark Reynolds at a variety of positions.  For simplicity's sake, I used the Bill James projections (which always feel optimistic, but perform just as well as any of the others) available at Fangraphs.  I projected WAR for each player by using the OBP/SLG projections, scaling them over 600 plate appearances, and predicting defensive capability. 

For Mark Reynolds, I projected him as a 1B, 3B, LF, and DH.  You my remember that in the beginning of the off season that I suggested that the Orioles think about sending Reynolds to left.  That never happened, but I can still dream.  I foresaw him being worth -10 runs at 1B, -15 runs at 3B, and -10 in left field.  His WAR would be 2.3 at 1B, 3.2 at 3B, 2.8 in LF, and 2.6 as DH.  The 2.8 WAR in LF with a -10 run defense still says to me that he should be trotted out there.  He has athleticism.

Other options at first base include Chris Davis (2.8 WAR, -5 runs) and Nolan Reimold (1.5 WAR, -10 runs).  I projected the Robert Andino / Matt Antonelli / Ryan Flaherty combination as worth 1.2 WAR.  Other options at third were the combo at 1.2 WAR and Chris Davis (2.7 WAR, a potentially kind -10 runs).  In left field, Reynolds would have company with Nolan Reimold (2.2 WAR, -5 runs) and Endy Chavez (2.1 WAR, +15 runs).  Finally, DH could also be manned by Chris Davis (2 WAR) or Nolan Reimold (1.8 WAR).

Mark Reynolds at First Base
With Reynolds at 1B and earning 2.3 WAR the following is the best setup according to the projections: 3B Chris Davis (2.7 WAR), LF Endy Chavez (2.1 WAR), and DH Nolan Reimold (1.8 WAR).  8.9 WAR

Mark Reynolds at Third Base
Reynolds is slated for 3.2 WAR at third with 1B Chris Davis (2.8 WAR), LF Endy Chavez (2.1 WAR), and DH Nolan Reimold (1.8 WAR).  9.9 WAR

Mark Reynolds in Left Field
We start with a conservative 2.8 WAR for Reynolds with 1B Chris Davis (2.8 WAR), 3B Combo (1.2 WAR), DH Nolan Reimold (1.8 WAR).  8.6 WAR

Mark Reynolds as Designated Hitter
DH Mark Reynolds (2.6 WAR), 1B Nolan Reimold (1.5 WAR), 3B Chris Davis (2.7 WAR), LF Endy Chavez (2.1 WAR).  8.9 WAR

Conclusion

Based on the above projections, the Orioles placing Reynolds at third base gives them 11% more projected production from the current roster.  Even a best case scenario where Reynolds would provide league average defense in left field would not be more productive than the current set up with him at third base.

Additionally, this little exercise made me aware of something else: Endy Chavez is likely to be a full timer this year in left field.  The only things preventing him from doing so would be Nolan Reimold taking another step forward firming his grip on LF, Jai Miller all of a sudden figuring things out, or an injury.

I am shrugging.