Follow us on Twitter: @CamdenDepot
Player: Parker Bridwell
Position: right-handed pitcher
Ht/Wt: 6-4/190
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 20y3m
2011 level(s): SS-A Aberdeen; Class A Delmarva
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Grades - Now (Future):
Motion: 40/45 (50)
Fastball: 50 (55/60)
Slider/Cutter: 45 (55)
Curveball: 40 (45/50)
Change: 40 (50)
Control: 40 (45/50)
Command: 35/40 (45/50)
Feel: 40 (50)
Overall Future Potential: 47-53
Prospect Grade: B
*Click here for primer on Grades
Background:
Drafted in the 9th Round of the 2010 Draft, out of Hereford High School (Hereford, Texas), and signed for overslot bonus of $625,000. Multi-sport athlete in high school and national level prospect in both baseball and football.
Physical Description:
Long, athletic build with projection. Broad shoulders to wide hips with medium-high waist. Long limbs; solid body control.
Motion:
Bridwell begins with a simple step-in to his motion. He is long on the backside and there are some checkpoints that could point to periodic stress on the ulnar collateral ligament, though that is highly dependent on the specifics of his elbow structure. Bridwell throws from a three-quarters slot with some cross-fire and first base falloff. While Bridwell is an excellent athlete, he is still working to rein in his long limbs and make uniform his mechanics. His stride length varies, which combines with his long arm action to throw off his release point and, in turn, both his control and consistency in his secondaries (his curve, in particular). He is relatively quick to home, considering his size, but needs to vary his pacing in order to prevent runners from timing him.
Stuff:
Fastball - Heavy 90-92 sinker that bumped to the mid-90s at various points this summer. When he drives the pitch down in the zone he induces a lot of soft contact -- a trend that should continue through the lower levels. He will need to improve his command of the offering, as more discerning bats will learn to lay off the pitch as it bores.
Slider/Cutter - Good arm slot deception and late cut when he snaps off a good one. Good pairing with his sinker and makes it very difficult for batters to barrel balls when Bridwell has both offerings working.
Curve - Arm generates heavy spin and there is a potential for this to develop into an above-average pitch, as well, if he can find consistency in his release. 11-to-5 action and will flash big depth. 10-13 mph velocity delta and ability to hit his fastball arm slot also makes the pitch a viable off-speed offering.
Change-up - The rawest of his arsenal, Bridwell's change-up is better than the rudimentary version on display prior to being drafted. It is a feel pitch that will require continued reps, but he has shown enough growth to project it to average.
Discussion:
Bridwell's biggest challenge will be finding consistency in his stride and uniformity in his arm action. If he can improve in those departments, he is well suited to develop into a workhorse starter with a couple of above-average to plus offerings. It is unlikely he will ever be surgical with his pitches, but so long as he can spot his heavy fastball and slider he should be able to manage his pitch counts through soft contact.
There is also some ceiling here. With big arm strength and noticeable progress already being made with his change-up, Bridwell has the upside of a #3 starter. While his command may limit his ability to reach that upside, Bridwell is still young with plenty of time to smooth out the kinks. He struggled in his first taste of full season ball this past summer, but rebounded impressively at Aberdeen, where he threw with visably more confidence and comfort.
If command or a useful third pitch prove problematic long term, Bridwell could be well suited to step into a relief role as an 8th inning arm or closer. He will continue to add strength over the coming years, making it possible to project fringe plus-plus velocity for the Texan once matured and throwing in shorter stints. The thought of a durable power arm with a grounder-inducing sinker/slider combo, however, should keep him in a rotation as long as he continues to develop. He will likely tackle Delmarava in 2012 with a half-season in Advanced-A Frederick if things break right.
Ceiling: #2/#3 starter on first division team
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: #4 starter on first division team or late-inning arm
25 November 2011
24 November 2011
Happy Thanksgiving from the Depot
One thing I am thankful for is this:
Music
Download it for 99 cents (No, we do not get a kickback for this. Enjoy)
Download it for 99 cents (No, we do not get a kickback for this. Enjoy)
22 November 2011
2012 Top 25 Prospects: #6 Nicky Delmonico
Follow us on Twitter: @CamdenDepot
Player: Nicky Delmonico
Position: third base/first base
Ht/Wt: 6-2/200
B/T: L/R
Age at 11/2011: 19y4m
2011 level(s): N/A
2011 statistics: N/A
Grades - Now (Future):
Hit: 35 (50)
Power: 35 (55/60)
Arm: 40/45 (45)
Defense: 35/40 (45/50)
Speed: 40/45 (40)
Feel: 40/45 (50/55)
Overall Future Potential: 47-53
Prospect Grade: B
*Click here for primer on Grades
Background:
6th Round selection in the 2011 draft, out of Farragut HS (Knoxville, Tenn.). Signed for mid-1st Round money, receiving a $1,525,000. Heavy bloodlines;.
Physical Description:
Strong, thick build. Broad shoulders and wide through hips with muscular core and trunk. Lacks projection but athletic and already looks the part.
Hitting:
When everything clicks, Delmonico shows an easy swing and generates good leverage and power. He takes an impressive BP and is capable of spraying balls from line-to-line. In-game, he shows a good approach for a prep talent, though he has yet to be challenged by advanced stuff on a day-to-day basis. On good days Delmonico shows balance and good whip in his barrel. On bad days, he creates too much length in his load, gets uphill with his swing plane and can extend early causing some drag in his barrel.
Defense:
Delmonico spent his scouting circuit summer and senior spring behind the plate, but consistently struggled with his transfer, footwork and throws. Mechanics aside, Delmonico's throws show consistent bow and it is far from certain that he will have enough arm strength to make all the throws from the hot corner -- his announced position on draft day. Additionally, Delmonico's lower-half could give him trouble in the infield, though his hands should play well at either of the corners. Defense is an area that can develop quickly under pro instruction and a full-time baseball schedule yielding plenty of reps. He should get a couple of seasons to knock around the infield while Baltimore determines if there is a long-term fit at third. If not, his future success will ride entirely on the development of his bat.
Discussion:
Delmonico represents a significant draft investment, netting the largest ever bonus paid by the Orioles outside of the 1st Round. There is big offensive upside that could come by way of a solid average defensive third baseman, but that tantalizing package is spotted with risk. Delmonico has not been able to produce in-game showings indicative of his natural talent on a consistent basis since the first half of the summer before his senior year of high school, and it is worth considering whether his bonus will serve as a relieving influence on his game or added pressure to produce.
With the skillset to grow into a legit .285/.360/.525 bat, Delmonico could provide an impressive compliment to the Machado/Schoop pairing scheduled to reach Baltimore at some point in 2013 or 2014. Given his background, the expectation should be that his transition to the pro ball lifestyle should be a smooth one, though concerns over his uneven results under the draft scrutiny of his senior year have some evaluators convinced that Delmonico would be better off easing into his first pro season in extended spring training. He'll turn 20 next July, so there is some sense of urgency to get him going.
Were Delmonico a year younger or a better bet to stick at third base, he could easily have snuck into the Supplemental-1st Round, even with his rocky spring. But there are a number of potential pitfalls facing the Tennessee native and, given his limited defensive profile, an immense amount of pressure on both his hit and power tools developing into impact weapons. Outside of Dylan Bundy, he may have the highest ceiling in the 2011 draft class -- albeit with a weighty boom/bust profile.
Ceiling: Above-average third baseman on first division team
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: Fringe-average first baseman on second division team
Player: Nicky Delmonico
Position: third base/first base
Ht/Wt: 6-2/200
B/T: L/R
Age at 11/2011: 19y4m
2011 level(s): N/A
2011 statistics: N/A
Grades - Now (Future):
Hit: 35 (50)
Power: 35 (55/60)
Arm: 40/45 (45)
Defense: 35/40 (45/50)
Speed: 40/45 (40)
Feel: 40/45 (50/55)
Overall Future Potential: 47-53
Prospect Grade: B
*Click here for primer on Grades
Background:
6th Round selection in the 2011 draft, out of Farragut HS (Knoxville, Tenn.). Signed for mid-1st Round money, receiving a $1,525,000. Heavy bloodlines;.
Physical Description:
Strong, thick build. Broad shoulders and wide through hips with muscular core and trunk. Lacks projection but athletic and already looks the part.
Hitting:
When everything clicks, Delmonico shows an easy swing and generates good leverage and power. He takes an impressive BP and is capable of spraying balls from line-to-line. In-game, he shows a good approach for a prep talent, though he has yet to be challenged by advanced stuff on a day-to-day basis. On good days Delmonico shows balance and good whip in his barrel. On bad days, he creates too much length in his load, gets uphill with his swing plane and can extend early causing some drag in his barrel.
Defense:
Delmonico spent his scouting circuit summer and senior spring behind the plate, but consistently struggled with his transfer, footwork and throws. Mechanics aside, Delmonico's throws show consistent bow and it is far from certain that he will have enough arm strength to make all the throws from the hot corner -- his announced position on draft day. Additionally, Delmonico's lower-half could give him trouble in the infield, though his hands should play well at either of the corners. Defense is an area that can develop quickly under pro instruction and a full-time baseball schedule yielding plenty of reps. He should get a couple of seasons to knock around the infield while Baltimore determines if there is a long-term fit at third. If not, his future success will ride entirely on the development of his bat.
Discussion:
Delmonico represents a significant draft investment, netting the largest ever bonus paid by the Orioles outside of the 1st Round. There is big offensive upside that could come by way of a solid average defensive third baseman, but that tantalizing package is spotted with risk. Delmonico has not been able to produce in-game showings indicative of his natural talent on a consistent basis since the first half of the summer before his senior year of high school, and it is worth considering whether his bonus will serve as a relieving influence on his game or added pressure to produce.
With the skillset to grow into a legit .285/.360/.525 bat, Delmonico could provide an impressive compliment to the Machado/Schoop pairing scheduled to reach Baltimore at some point in 2013 or 2014. Given his background, the expectation should be that his transition to the pro ball lifestyle should be a smooth one, though concerns over his uneven results under the draft scrutiny of his senior year have some evaluators convinced that Delmonico would be better off easing into his first pro season in extended spring training. He'll turn 20 next July, so there is some sense of urgency to get him going.
Were Delmonico a year younger or a better bet to stick at third base, he could easily have snuck into the Supplemental-1st Round, even with his rocky spring. But there are a number of potential pitfalls facing the Tennessee native and, given his limited defensive profile, an immense amount of pressure on both his hit and power tools developing into impact weapons. Outside of Dylan Bundy, he may have the highest ceiling in the 2011 draft class -- albeit with a weighty boom/bust profile.
Ceiling: Above-average third baseman on first division team
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: Fringe-average first baseman on second division team
21 November 2011
2012 Top 25 Prospects: #5 L.J. Hoes
Follow us on Twitter: @CamdenDepot
Player: L.J. Hoes
Position: left field/second base
Ht/Wt: 6-1/185
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 21y8m
2011 level(s): Advanced-A Frederick; Double-A Bowie
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Grades - Now (Future):
Hit: 40/45 (55/60)
Power: 40 (45/50)
Arm: 50 (50)
Defense: 45 (50)
Speed: 50 (50)
Feel: 45 (50)
Overall Future Potential: 48-54
Prospect Grade: B
*Click here for primer on Grades
Background:
3rd Round selection in the 2008 Draft, drafted out of St. John's College HS (Chevy Chase, Md.).
Physical Description:
Medium frame but bloodlines and body type to project some strength. Solid athlete, though lower-half can drag at times. Average runner.
Hitting:
Hoes is a natural hitter, utilizing good balance, quick hands and a compact swing. Already in possession of a strong core, Hoes continues to firm-up his physique and could be capable of fringe-average to average power in the future, with 2012 standing out as a potential "jump" year in power production (setting aside the pitching-friendly confines of Norfolk). The only real knocks that prevent him from projecting to a true plus hit tool are some tendencies for defensive at bats and an inability to consistently match swing plane to pitch plane. He can improve in both areas, but even if he doesn't he should make plenty of contact, work walks and hit for enough pop to keep pitchers honest.
Defense:
Hoes was shifted out to left field upon arriving at Bowie. While Baltimore staff has indicated that they still view second base as a viable option for him, he will project as an outfielder until the organization decides to commit time to him at second base. A center fielder as an amateur, Hoes could provide average or a tick above-average defense in left, with enough footspeed to cover the gap, an adequate arm and solid feel. Further, he is worth at least a look in center field come March.
Discussion:
While the overall ceiling is lower, Hoes' hit tool may rank with Machado and Schoop. He shows easy command of the strikezone and the high level of comfort in the box that often belies a successful Major Leaguer. While a shift to a corner position traditionally puts more evaluative emphasis on the power tool, Hoes could get on base enough to provide solid value without hitting 20+ homeruns a year. That notwithstanding, the developing strength in Hoes' core and hands combined with his ability to discern pitches to drive could help him to realize a jump in power production as early as next summer.
Defensively, Hoes would clearly be more valuable as an up-the-middle glove. If the switch to left field proves permanent, however, he could still be capable of providing solid defense out of the seven-spot. Aside from the additional pressure on the bat, Hoes may need to do the little things on the bases to ensure that the total value package adds up to starter-quality.
Hoes will likely get knocked by a number of prospectors due to the position switch, but he so long as he continues to hit he will continue to get the benefit of the doubt here. 2012 should show whether the organization is interested in returning to the experiment with second base, or if Hoes is in left field to stay. To the extent he is stuck in the corner, he will look to prove he has enough pop to keep Triple-A and Major League arms honest, and that his success at Bowie wasn't simply a product of his .354 BABIP. With minimal growth, you can squint and see a Gerardo Parra-esque profile.
Ceiling: Average left fielder on first division team
Floor: 4th or 5th outfielder; bench bat
Projected: Fringe-average left fielder on second division team
Player: L.J. Hoes
Position: left field/second base
Ht/Wt: 6-1/185
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 21y8m
2011 level(s): Advanced-A Frederick; Double-A Bowie
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Grades - Now (Future):
Hit: 40/45 (55/60)
Power: 40 (45/50)
Arm: 50 (50)
Defense: 45 (50)
Speed: 50 (50)
Feel: 45 (50)
Overall Future Potential: 48-54
Prospect Grade: B
*Click here for primer on Grades
Background:
3rd Round selection in the 2008 Draft, drafted out of St. John's College HS (Chevy Chase, Md.).
Physical Description:
Medium frame but bloodlines and body type to project some strength. Solid athlete, though lower-half can drag at times. Average runner.
Hitting:
Hoes is a natural hitter, utilizing good balance, quick hands and a compact swing. Already in possession of a strong core, Hoes continues to firm-up his physique and could be capable of fringe-average to average power in the future, with 2012 standing out as a potential "jump" year in power production (setting aside the pitching-friendly confines of Norfolk). The only real knocks that prevent him from projecting to a true plus hit tool are some tendencies for defensive at bats and an inability to consistently match swing plane to pitch plane. He can improve in both areas, but even if he doesn't he should make plenty of contact, work walks and hit for enough pop to keep pitchers honest.
Defense:
Hoes was shifted out to left field upon arriving at Bowie. While Baltimore staff has indicated that they still view second base as a viable option for him, he will project as an outfielder until the organization decides to commit time to him at second base. A center fielder as an amateur, Hoes could provide average or a tick above-average defense in left, with enough footspeed to cover the gap, an adequate arm and solid feel. Further, he is worth at least a look in center field come March.
Discussion:
While the overall ceiling is lower, Hoes' hit tool may rank with Machado and Schoop. He shows easy command of the strikezone and the high level of comfort in the box that often belies a successful Major Leaguer. While a shift to a corner position traditionally puts more evaluative emphasis on the power tool, Hoes could get on base enough to provide solid value without hitting 20+ homeruns a year. That notwithstanding, the developing strength in Hoes' core and hands combined with his ability to discern pitches to drive could help him to realize a jump in power production as early as next summer.
Defensively, Hoes would clearly be more valuable as an up-the-middle glove. If the switch to left field proves permanent, however, he could still be capable of providing solid defense out of the seven-spot. Aside from the additional pressure on the bat, Hoes may need to do the little things on the bases to ensure that the total value package adds up to starter-quality.
Hoes will likely get knocked by a number of prospectors due to the position switch, but he so long as he continues to hit he will continue to get the benefit of the doubt here. 2012 should show whether the organization is interested in returning to the experiment with second base, or if Hoes is in left field to stay. To the extent he is stuck in the corner, he will look to prove he has enough pop to keep Triple-A and Major League arms honest, and that his success at Bowie wasn't simply a product of his .354 BABIP. With minimal growth, you can squint and see a Gerardo Parra-esque profile.
Ceiling: Average left fielder on first division team
Floor: 4th or 5th outfielder; bench bat
Projected: Fringe-average left fielder on second division team
2012 Top 25 Prospects: #4 Bobby Bundy (rhp)
Follow us on Twitter: @CamdenDepot
Player: Robert "Bobby" Bundy
Position: right-handed pitcher
Ht/Wt: 6-2/215
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 21y11m
2011 level(s): Advanced-A Frederick; Double-A Bowie
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Grades - Now (Future):
Motion: 45/50 (55)
Fastball: 45/50 (55)
Curveball: 40/45 (55/60)
Slider: 40/45 (50)
Change: 35/40 (50)
Control: 45/50 (50/55)
Command: 35/40 (50)
Feel: 40 (50)
Overall Future Potential: 51-56
Prospect Grade: B
*Click here for primer on Grades
Background:
Drafted in the 8th Round of the 2008 Draft, out of Sperry High School (Sperry, Okla.), and signed for overslot bonus of $600,000. Top 100 talent that dropped in the draft in large part due to knee injury during basketball season. Played his senior year with younger brother Dylan Bundy(rhp), who subsquently transfered to Owasso HS (Owasso, Okla.) and was the fourth overall selection in the 2011 Draft, also by Baltimore. Bobby spent 2011 as a starter for the Frederick Keys (Advanced-A, Baltimore system) before finishing the season at Bowie (Double-A, Baltimore system).
Physical Description:
Strong, workhorse build on broad, athletic frame. Thick throughout, with even distribution. Solid athleticism and body control. Moves reasonably well off of mound.
Motion:
Long arm action on the backside creates an inconsistent launch point as Bundy begins to rotate through. It is possible this could be addressed through utilization of a straight drop arm to begin his arm circle, as opposed to his current approach of swinging into it. In any event, it is an issue that development staff will likely address. The rest of his mechanics are generally uniform and repeatable, with a smooth plant and follow. The result is solid control but an inability to consistently hit his spots within the zone. His three-quarters slot works well for all four of his offerings, and there is obvious athleticism in his actions.
Stuff:
Fastball - Upper-80s to low-90s heavy heater that can run in to righties, as well. Will flatten up in the zone some, and Bundy isn't as precise with the pitch as he will need to be in order to reach his mid-rotation ceiling.
Curve - Power breaker that will flash plus on a 12-to-6 trajectory, but can grade as low as below-average when he loses his release. The inconsistencies in this pitch are likely a direct result of his varying launch points.
Slider - Like his curve, Bundy's slider is plagued by inconsistencies due to his issues with repeating his release point. At it's best, it can be an average to slightly above-average pitch right now and pairs well with his sinking fastball when he is able to keep it down in the zone.
Change-up - While Bundy has grown his offspeed since his high school days, it still remains the weakest of his offerings and leaves him without a suitable weapon for handling lefties.
Discussion:
Bundy has made steady progress through the Orioles system, and 2011 served as a breakout year for the righty from a production standpoint. A likely unsustainably low BABIP against left-handed hitters (.267 against lefties; .313 against righties) kept his left/right splits more balanced than they should have been. Even then, lefites out OPSed righties to tune of the following slash lines: .221/.313/.392/.705 against lefties; .263/.317/.375/.692 against righties. Perhaps most telling, Bundy's SO/BB ratio against lefties (1.81) is less than half of that against righties (4.27).
The good news is that Bundy's issues appear to be fairly easy to identify. In order for his command in the zone to increase, and the consistency of his secondaries to increase, Bundy will need to find a way to hit is backside checkpoints more consistently. The second glaring weakness is his lack of a consistent weapon with which to attack lefties. His change-up is improving, and provided he is able to clean-up the backside of his arm action some, he should have little trouble growing it into at least an average offering. Further, improved command and execution of his secondaries will lead to more missed bats, as it will lead to fewer spots missed and more frequent effective showings of his power curve and slider.
As a 21-year old in Advanced-A ball, Bundy put together a very strong year. As encouraging as his final stat line was, the fact that he cruised through the season with very few issues until his late season promotion to Bowie is cause for great optimism. The only real hiccup was his June, which included five starts and an FIP of over 5 (as opposed to his April, May and July of 1.36, 3.59 and 3.11, respectively). He reached 136 innings pitched in 2011 and is poised to break the 150 innings threshold in 2012. He projects as a durable 200-plus innings eater with a chance for two above-average pitches and four usable Major League offerings. If his command and his secondaries do not improve over the next two seasons, he still has value as a swing man or a middle-reliever that could bump the mid-90s in shorter stints.
Ceiling: #3 starter on first division team
Floor: Middle-reliever/swingman
Projected: #4 starter on first division team
Player: Robert "Bobby" Bundy
Position: right-handed pitcher
Ht/Wt: 6-2/215
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 21y11m
2011 level(s): Advanced-A Frederick; Double-A Bowie
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Grades - Now (Future):
Motion: 45/50 (55)
Fastball: 45/50 (55)
Curveball: 40/45 (55/60)
Slider: 40/45 (50)
Change: 35/40 (50)
Control: 45/50 (50/55)
Command: 35/40 (50)
Feel: 40 (50)
Overall Future Potential: 51-56
Prospect Grade: B
*Click here for primer on Grades
Background:
Drafted in the 8th Round of the 2008 Draft, out of Sperry High School (Sperry, Okla.), and signed for overslot bonus of $600,000. Top 100 talent that dropped in the draft in large part due to knee injury during basketball season. Played his senior year with younger brother Dylan Bundy(rhp), who subsquently transfered to Owasso HS (Owasso, Okla.) and was the fourth overall selection in the 2011 Draft, also by Baltimore. Bobby spent 2011 as a starter for the Frederick Keys (Advanced-A, Baltimore system) before finishing the season at Bowie (Double-A, Baltimore system).
Physical Description:
Strong, workhorse build on broad, athletic frame. Thick throughout, with even distribution. Solid athleticism and body control. Moves reasonably well off of mound.
Motion:
Long arm action on the backside creates an inconsistent launch point as Bundy begins to rotate through. It is possible this could be addressed through utilization of a straight drop arm to begin his arm circle, as opposed to his current approach of swinging into it. In any event, it is an issue that development staff will likely address. The rest of his mechanics are generally uniform and repeatable, with a smooth plant and follow. The result is solid control but an inability to consistently hit his spots within the zone. His three-quarters slot works well for all four of his offerings, and there is obvious athleticism in his actions.
Stuff:
Fastball - Upper-80s to low-90s heavy heater that can run in to righties, as well. Will flatten up in the zone some, and Bundy isn't as precise with the pitch as he will need to be in order to reach his mid-rotation ceiling.
Curve - Power breaker that will flash plus on a 12-to-6 trajectory, but can grade as low as below-average when he loses his release. The inconsistencies in this pitch are likely a direct result of his varying launch points.
Slider - Like his curve, Bundy's slider is plagued by inconsistencies due to his issues with repeating his release point. At it's best, it can be an average to slightly above-average pitch right now and pairs well with his sinking fastball when he is able to keep it down in the zone.
Change-up - While Bundy has grown his offspeed since his high school days, it still remains the weakest of his offerings and leaves him without a suitable weapon for handling lefties.
Discussion:
Bundy has made steady progress through the Orioles system, and 2011 served as a breakout year for the righty from a production standpoint. A likely unsustainably low BABIP against left-handed hitters (.267 against lefties; .313 against righties) kept his left/right splits more balanced than they should have been. Even then, lefites out OPSed righties to tune of the following slash lines: .221/.313/.392/.705 against lefties; .263/.317/.375/.692 against righties. Perhaps most telling, Bundy's SO/BB ratio against lefties (1.81) is less than half of that against righties (4.27).
The good news is that Bundy's issues appear to be fairly easy to identify. In order for his command in the zone to increase, and the consistency of his secondaries to increase, Bundy will need to find a way to hit is backside checkpoints more consistently. The second glaring weakness is his lack of a consistent weapon with which to attack lefties. His change-up is improving, and provided he is able to clean-up the backside of his arm action some, he should have little trouble growing it into at least an average offering. Further, improved command and execution of his secondaries will lead to more missed bats, as it will lead to fewer spots missed and more frequent effective showings of his power curve and slider.
As a 21-year old in Advanced-A ball, Bundy put together a very strong year. As encouraging as his final stat line was, the fact that he cruised through the season with very few issues until his late season promotion to Bowie is cause for great optimism. The only real hiccup was his June, which included five starts and an FIP of over 5 (as opposed to his April, May and July of 1.36, 3.59 and 3.11, respectively). He reached 136 innings pitched in 2011 and is poised to break the 150 innings threshold in 2012. He projects as a durable 200-plus innings eater with a chance for two above-average pitches and four usable Major League offerings. If his command and his secondaries do not improve over the next two seasons, he still has value as a swing man or a middle-reliever that could bump the mid-90s in shorter stints.
Ceiling: #3 starter on first division team
Floor: Middle-reliever/swingman
Projected: #4 starter on first division team
20 November 2011
Oriole Rule 5 Target: Thomas Pham
 |
| Lots of hay in the Rule 5 |
In 2006, Thomas Pham was a name everyone knew coming out of high school in Las Vegas. His Baseball America scouting report at the time mentions him as a prospect who could be seen as either an infielder or a pitcher. He threw in the low 90s and flashed a plus slider. He was seen more as an offensive hitter, drawing comparisons to Scott Hairston. He hit the ball solidly and used his plus speed on the base paths. Baseball America's assumption was that he would go sometime in the top five rounds and be overslotted. However, there were some doubts about his maturity. Pham was considered lackadaisical on defense and walked back on a commitment to Arizona State. In the end, Pham was selected by the St. Louis Cardinals in the 16th round and signed for 325k (roughly 3rd/4th round money).
The Cardinals tried him out at shortstop, but that last only for rookie ball. For 2007 and onward, Pham was positioned almost exclusively in center field. By all accounts, he did not take naturally to the position, but has improved with time. His plus speed and a better understanding of route running has made him passable in center field. His plus arm helped him record an assist once every 7 games last year. He would not look pretty in the majors in center field, but those two attributes should be passable.
Pham also had difficulty showing himself to be a bat first prospect. He struggled with the Mendoza Line in rookie ball, low A, A, and high A ball. In his second pass through A ball in Quad Cities, he mashed 17 home runs in 346 plate appearances as a 20 year old. However, he batted .218 and struck out 36% of the time. The Cardinals kept pushing him up the ladder though and everything seemed to click performance-wise in AA. His K rate dropped to 22% over 2010 and 2011 which works nicely with a maintained walk rate of about 11%. His AA line has been 314/398/527. If he had not broken his wrist 40 games into the 2011 season while go after a potential home run ball, I think he would have been protected.
How could the Orioles hold onto him for a season?
The Orioles need a fourth outfielder. Pham is likely not to be league average, but he has the tools to be adequate in any of the three outfield slots. He has experience in center and left while Reimold has spent time in both left and right. Pham also has plus speed and has shown some ability to use that speed on the base paths. Those qualities could make him workable in a pinch if an outfielder goes down for a few weeks. He 306 plate appearances at AA do not suggest he is ready to make the leap to MLB, but he has shown good gap power and improved contact. Pham would be better served by spending the year in the minors, but it may be worth it for a bad team to try to use him.
The alternative to Pham is using Kyle Hudson or Matt Angle in the outfield. Hudson has more talent than Angle and Angle has more skill than Hudson. Neither are likely to be anything more than fringe fourth outfielders. Angle has a better chance to stick because he can play plus defense in center. Pham, though, has the ability to be useful in center and carry an average to above average bat if everything clicks. Additionally, if his broken wrist is still a problem, the Orioles might be able to stash him on the DL for a while.
As I mentioned earlier, the Rule 5 is full of unfulfilled potential, broken bodies, and guys who have one moderately amazing tool. Any player you select is highly unlikely to provide any value to your team. That does not mean there are no players of value. It means that the ability to discern potential talent and be blessed (cursed?) with the opportunity to hold onto that talent is miniscule. Pham is likely to not be a contributor at the MLB level now or perhaps even in the future. He is a fringe top 20 prospect. That said, maybe he is worth a look.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)