Showing posts with label parker bridwell. Show all posts
Showing posts with label parker bridwell. Show all posts

22 August 2017

Everyone Missed on Parker Bridwell

Parker Bridwell was once considered a diamond in the rough.  Joe Jordan's group believed in him and threw down a 625k signing bonus on him in 2010.  His calling card was an intriguing sinker/cutter/slider combo that was devastating when on, which was actually quite rare but tantalizing enough that he peaked in the Orioles system around 2012 as a B level prospect.  Bridwell peaked as our 7th ranked prospect in 2012, but continued troubles eroded expectations.

Bridwell could never consistently control or command his sinker or cutter and the Orioles eventually insisted on him to ditch the sinker and to focus on his four seam fastball.  It took what was special about him, the sinker/cutter/slider combo and made him an ordinary minor league pitcher.  Other organizations still held out hope.  The slider would flash plus and scouts who saw him earlier remembered what he was capable of doing with a fully utilized combo.  On several occasions, the Phillies (where many of the Orioles execs under MacPhail wound up during the Duquette era) tried to acquire Bridwell.  The Orioles kept saying no until the flashes of above average pitches with a potential plus working combo faded away.

In April, the Orioles dealt Bridwell to the Angels for cash considerations, which was rumored around 50k.  At the time, I asked an executive for another club why his team passed on Bridwell and he replied, "Is there really anything interesting left? None of his pitches are plus, he cannot throw a change up, and he does not know where the ball will end up. We are trying to win games here and have no room to see if he can be what he was four or five years ago."

It is important to note that Bridwell was worth 50k.  That fact accompanies what the front office executive said and shows that not only did the Orioles give up on him, but that no one was beating down the door to beat out what the pitching starved Angels were offering.  That illustrates how low Bridwell's value had dropped across the league.  The game is unfortunately littered with once promising pitching prospects who never really performed well at any level.  The difference here is that Bridwell wound up doing something that even the Angels did not expect.

2017 Pitching Gamelog
Dec IP R BB SO GSc
W(1-0)6.031451
Dec IP R BB SO GSc
5.025353
W(2-0)6.220456
L(2-1)6.051231
Dec IP R BB SO GSc
W(3-1)6.003566
6.121860
W(4-1)7.021361
W(5-1)7.111471
Dec IP R BB SO GSc
5.043440
W(6-1)7.010465
W(7-1)6.011261
5.041345
W-L:7-177.028184755
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/21/2017.

Over the past month, a couple of articles have been written on Bridwell's turn into a top notch performer for the Angels.  Pedro Moura wrote for the LA Times about how the Angels told him to change his approach.  They told him to no longer focus on throwing four seam fastballs.  He was told instead to focus on his sinker and cutter, what had originally made him such an interesting prospect.  In the Baltimore Sun, Eduardo Encina notes much of the same with the main emphasis being that Bridwell was told not to emphasize his four seamer and change.

Personally, I noticed a couple things.  First, when Bridwell was dealt, a deep dive in social media showed a common refrain from previous Orioles and their family which was a message to Bridwell that things will be better outside of the organization.  I first noticed it when Davies was dealt out and it pops up over and over again.  Second, Bridwell appears to have a smoother windup and is slower to the plate.  His cutter plays well against his sinker, but it no longer flashes plus.  His slider though has gained several inches in depth.  He still has trouble locating it, but it can really disrupt the at bat for a batter.

It appears to me that the organization's focus on making Bridwell a four seam/change up pitcher with a quick approach to the plate led Bridwell away from what he did well and limited the athleticism he could utilize in his pitches.  Those two prongs made it difficult for the club and any opposing organization to see that there was still a decent amount of talent underneath the seemingly wrong-headed developmental approach.

Before we skip too far down the Parker-Bridwell-Is-Now-A-Glorious-Pitcher route is to note that we are talking about 12 starts with a great 2.88 ERA.  His peripherals though suggest he has experienced a wonderful amount of luck.  Half of his earned runs (14) are due to a player scoring himself with a home run.  Only 14 of 80 baserunners have scored on him without directly hitting a home run.  He holds a 83.8% left on base figure, which is about 20% higher than one should expect (70-72%).  A typical LOB% would have him at a 3.27 ERA.

However, keep in mind how few runs are coming in off those home runs and consider his very low 5.5 k/9 rate, which would make him having the second worst rate in baseball if he qualified with innings.  They are a major reason why his FIP is 4.55.  As well as why his DRA is 5.26.  In other words, his peripheral metrics which are a better predictor of future success than ERA suggest that Bridwell's 77 innings of ace-like performance is abnormal.  Instead, we should expect him to slot in as a fifth pitcher in a rotation.  The Orioles though could use one of those, too.

29 July 2015

Ben Revere Could Help The Orioles

As of this writing, the Orioles find themselves 6.5 games out of first place in the AL East and 2.5 games out of the second wild card spot, with no other team currently in front of them. However, nearly the rest of the American League is in a similar situation, with only a total of four teams being more than 5 games behind the Twins. Even though the standings could look very different by the time the trade deadline arrives, the Orioles have recently stated (again) that they will be buying at the deadline.

As the title suggests, this article will focus on the idea that acquiring Ben Revere from the Phillies would help the Orioles. Admittedly, the post would have probably been more appropriate last week, prior to Baltimore getting swept by the Yankees. To have a more realistic chance at making a run at the playoffs, the Orioles may be better suited to make a run at more of a difference maker such as Justin Upton (and/or Wil Myers) as Jon suggested Monday (especially in the aftermath of Toronto's acquisition of Troy Tulowitzki). So while Revere may not be one of the sexiest options for a corner outfield acquisition (Matt went over all the sexy and not so sexy options last week), I still think he could help improve the team both this year and beyond, which is important if Baltimore has any plans to be competitive in the near future (considering their shallow farm system and impending free agent exodus).
Ben Revere may be playing for someone else next week

When one thinks of Ben Revere, productive corner outfielder most likely isn’t the first thing that comes to mind. After all, corner outfield positions are associated with power hitting…power hitters who don’t have to play defense all that well to justify a spot in the lineup. By contrast, Revere is a 27-year-old outfielder listed at 5’9” and 170 lbs on the Phillies website (so consider him slightly less in both regards) who has a reputation of being a slap-hitting speedster with a weak outfield arm. That reputation is justifiable, as Revere has a career ISO of .053 and 3 home runs in over 2,400 plate appearances. However, if one only looks at the paltry power numbers, the bigger picture is being missed. That bigger picture is that Ben Revere is a league average hitter in 2015 who has contributed 1.9 wins above replacement in approximately half a year’s worth of plate appearances.

Revere is currently sporting a triple slash line of .302/.340/.381, which is good for a 101 wRC+, which would put him behind only Adam Jones and Nolan Reimold among Orioles outfielders, although Reimold has only accumulated 67 PAs (I’m considering Chris Davis a first baseman here). Yes, his offensive production is largely dependent on batting average, which makes his acquisition a little riskier, but he’s been very consistent over the last 3 years, as the table shows.


Revere isn’t necessarily another platoon player either, something of which the Orioles have plenty. While he’s had trouble against left-handers in 2015 (58 wRC+ in 92 PAs), he’s actually hit better against them than he has against right-handers over the course of his career (90 wRC+ against LHP in 715 PAs versus 85 wRC+ against RHP in 1,687 PAs). This could be a result of batted ball luck, but it illustrates that he’s not completely helpless against them.

If there is a significant difference in his offensive game this year, it’s his increased line drive rate (5% higher than career levels), which is likely driving his power “spike.” That increase in line drives has come at the expense of ground balls, but as long as those line drives don’t start turning into fly balls (the equivalent of baseball death for a player with Revere’s skill set), he should continue to produce at the plate as long as he retains his plus plus speed, which at 27 years old, should not be an issue over the next few years barring injury.

Speaking of Revere’s speed, he’s got plenty as he’s stolen 169 bases in 209 attempts over his career, good for an 80.8% success rate. He’s been better than that in 2014 and 2015 stealing 73 bases while being successful nearly 85% of the time. He’s consistently been one of the best baserunners in the game (Fangraphs has him worth 26.3 Baserunning Runs above average throughout his career) and would add a different element to an Orioles lineup that relies heavily on the home run. The Orioles are currently ranked 21st in Baserunning Runs, with 4.1 runs below average.

Revere’s speed benefits him on defense as well as it helps cover up some of the adventurous routes he takes at times to run down fly balls. Overall, he grades out as a plus defender in the corners according to UZR/150 (11.3 runs above average in LF and 18.7 in RF) and an average defender in CF in admittedly a much larger sample size 0.7 runs above average). Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) is more pessimistic, having him as a slightly below average left fielder (-2 DRS in 524.1 innings), terrible in center field (-24 DRS in 3,308.1 innings), and above average in right field (11 DRS in 854 innings). Luckily with Adam Jones already on the roster, Revere would only need to play center in an emergency. He’s best suited for left field, as his weak arm – which has been worth 8.1 runs below average – is his biggest liability in the field.

The acquisition of Revere should be at least a 0.5 win upgrade over what the Orioles currently have on their roster. Zips projects Revere to be worth 0.7 wins the rest of season, while it projects Travis Snider, Chris Parmelee, and David Lough at 0.2 wins each (Nolan Reimold projects to be worth 0.1 wins for the remainder of 2015). He’s also under team control through 2017, which should be attractive to an Orioles team that does not have any position players in the farm system ready to contribute anytime soon. He’s not necessarily cheap though, as he is making $4.1 million in 2015 during his second round of arbitration (the Orioles would be on the hook for approximately $1.64 million in 2015). As a former super two player, he’ll get more expensive during his 3rd and 4th years of arbitration, but the Orioles will also have the opportunity to non-tender him if they don’t expect his production to match his escalating price.

So what would it take for the Phillies to part with Revere? I'm not exactly sure how each team would value these players, but I would think Parker Bridwell and a low minors lottery ticket would at least get the conversation started. Bridwell was the Orioles’ 17th best prospect heading into the 2015 season according to MLB.com. He’s a 23-year-old right-hander with good stuff and command issues, so there’s a chance he ends up in the bullpen. He’s currently pitching in Double-AA Bowie and has a 3.99 ERA, striking out 93 and walking 38 in 97 IP. Ultimately, acquiring an average, if unspectacular outfielder in Revere could help the team in 2015 and beyond (without necessarily being tied to him long term) at a potentially reasonable price. Don’t get me wrong, it wouldn’t be the most exciting trade, but it improves the Orioles now without mortgaging the future.

25 November 2011

2012 Top 25 Prospects: #7 Parker Bridwell

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Player: Parker Bridwell
Position: right-handed pitcher
Ht/Wt: 6-4/190
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 20y3m
2011 level(s): SS-A Aberdeen; Class A Delmarva
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central

Grades - Now (Future):
Motion: 40/45 (50)
Fastball: 50 (55/60)
Slider/Cutter: 45 (55)
Curveball: 40 (45/50)
Change: 40 (50)
Control: 40 (45/50)
Command: 35/40 (45/50)
Feel: 40 (50)
Overall Future Potential: 47-53
Prospect Grade: B

*Click here for primer on Grades

Background:
Drafted in the 9th Round of the 2010 Draft, out of Hereford High School (Hereford, Texas), and signed for overslot bonus of $625,000. Multi-sport athlete in high school and national level prospect in both baseball and football.

Physical Description:
Long, athletic build with projection. Broad shoulders to wide hips with medium-high waist. Long limbs; solid body control.

Motion:
Bridwell begins with a simple step-in to his motion. He is long on the backside and there are some checkpoints that could point to periodic stress on the ulnar collateral ligament, though that is highly dependent on the specifics of his elbow structure. Bridwell throws from a three-quarters slot with some cross-fire and first base falloff. While Bridwell is an excellent athlete, he is still working to rein in his long limbs and make uniform his mechanics. His stride length varies, which combines with his long arm action to throw off his release point and, in turn, both his control and consistency in his secondaries (his curve, in particular). He is relatively quick to home, considering his size, but needs to vary his pacing in order to prevent runners from timing him.

Stuff:
Fastball - Heavy 90-92 sinker that bumped to the mid-90s at various points this summer. When he drives the pitch down in the zone he induces a lot of soft contact -- a trend that should continue through the lower levels. He will need to improve his command of the offering, as more discerning bats will learn to lay off the pitch as it bores.

Slider/Cutter - Good arm slot deception and late cut when he snaps off a good one. Good pairing with his sinker and makes it very difficult for batters to barrel balls when Bridwell has both offerings working.

Curve - Arm generates heavy spin and there is a potential for this to develop into an above-average pitch, as well, if he can find consistency in his release. 11-to-5 action and will flash big depth. 10-13 mph velocity delta and ability to hit his fastball arm slot also makes the pitch a viable off-speed offering.

Change-up - The rawest of his arsenal, Bridwell's change-up is better than the rudimentary version on display prior to being drafted. It is a feel pitch that will require continued reps, but he has shown enough growth to project it to average.

Discussion:
Bridwell's biggest challenge will be finding consistency in his stride and uniformity in his arm action. If he can improve in those departments, he is well suited to develop into a workhorse starter with a couple of above-average to plus offerings. It is unlikely he will ever be surgical with his pitches, but so long as he can spot his heavy fastball and slider he should be able to manage his pitch counts through soft contact.

There is also some ceiling here. With big arm strength and noticeable progress already being made with his change-up, Bridwell has the upside of a #3 starter. While his command may limit his ability to reach that upside, Bridwell is still young with plenty of time to smooth out the kinks. He struggled in his first taste of full season ball this past summer, but rebounded impressively at Aberdeen, where he threw with visably more confidence and comfort.

If command or a useful third pitch prove problematic long term, Bridwell could be well suited to step into a relief role as an 8th inning arm or closer. He will continue to add strength over the coming years, making it possible to project fringe plus-plus velocity for the Texan once matured and throwing in shorter stints. The thought of a durable power arm with a grounder-inducing sinker/slider combo, however, should keep him in a rotation as long as he continues to develop. He will likely tackle Delmarava in 2012 with a half-season in Advanced-A Frederick if things break right.

Ceiling: #2/#3 starter on first division team
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: #4 starter on first division team or late-inning arm