Arrivals And Departures: Improving The 25th Man

There was a great deal of roster juggling this past week, so I will only list when players arrived or left the organization.

      8/4/15 - signed RHP Andrew Robinson to a Minor League Deal
     8/7/15 - recalled LF/DH Junior Lake and DFAed OF Travis Snider
     8/8/15 - released RHP Bud Norris
     8/9/15 - signed LHP Nick Additon to a Minor League Deal

To provide enough information to be dangerous on the smaller deals, Additon and Robinson are likely only to be expected to provide pitching depth.  You may remember Additon from last year when he signed with the Orioles system after leaving the Cardinals organization.  He found success in Bowie with a nice run of five games, but found it difficult to replicate that performance in Norfolk and was relegated to the bullpen.  This year he signed with Milwaukee and was brutalized pitching at Colorado Springs.  What kind of pitcher is he?  Additon maxes out around 88, but is able to play that off of good feel for a changeup and excellent control.  He has never tasted the Majors even though he has logged 108 games at AAA with 73 starting.

I cannot make you dangerous on Andrew Robinson.  I have nothing on him either than him being released after having a successful 34 game stint in the bullpen for the Braves AA team.

This past week also saw the Orioles throw the towel on Travis Snider.  They acquired Snider for Stephen Tarpley and Steven Brault.  Tarpley has solved A ball with a 2.32 ERA and an 8.8 K/9 over 14 starts.  However, he is regarded by some in the industry as still not being among the Pirates top 20 prospects.  Brault has risen to AA and has a 2.80 ERA and a 9.7 K/9 over 10 starts.  He also is not regarded as a front line prospect despite the dominating performance.  In other words, these two still appear to be on a path to being somewhat meaningful middle relievers, which would be worth more than what Snider was worth for the Orioles this year.

Snider was acquired to increase the odds that the Orioles would have right field resolved after the departure of Nick "Two Home Runs" Markakis.  As we all know, corner outfield has been a major issue for the club this year and is now being largely addressed with Chris Davis pretending to be an outfielder and deadline acquisition Gerardo Parra.  Snider's 237/318/341 bat was relegated to the bench, which marked the beginning of the end.  He showed poor contact, poor power, and a marginal walk rate.  It was reminiscent of his performance when he suffered from bone spurs in his foot a couple seasons ago.  This year there has been no word about any foot injury, so that might simply be a convenient narrative without any truth to it.

With Snider's departure, in comes what might well be a bit of a merry-go-round.  Junior Lake is politely described as a "post-prospect."  Lake raged through the minors, showing off flashes of basepath brilliance and big power.  These tools were particularly interesting as the Cubs kept trotting him out at shortstop.  Eventually, they gave up on that defensive experiment and shifted him to the corner outfield where he also has shown little aptitude.  He also lost his baserunning prowess along the way.  What remains is a 25-year-old who has 646 plate appearances over several cups of coffee in the Majors and a slash line of 241/283/381.  Maybe the club sees something in Lake that Snider did not have or maybe Lake is simply not Snider or, more cynically, they felt they had to bring Lake up for a cup of coffee to explain away why they dumped Tommy Hunter.

Over the next week, it would not be surprising to see Lake drop back down to Norfolk.  Others following the team have offered outfielder David Lough as a DFA candidate.  The argument goes that Gerardo Parra provides the team with a backup centerfielder, which was the main function Lough served.  This year Lough has seen his hitting crater with a 213/256/336 slash.  He appears to be more willing to swing early in the count.  Also, echoing sentiment from what Buck has professed Lough to do, he is putting the ball on the ground more with softer contact and is no longer trying to pull the ball.  My suggestion here is that the Orioles have tinkered with Lough, making him into something that is unworkable for him.  He needs to go back to focusing on driving the ball and stop slapping.  If he can somehow perform similarly as he did last year, he could be worth about 0.6 wins over the last two months.

Your 40 man roster with options:

Ben Revere Could Help The Orioles

As of this writing, the Orioles find themselves 6.5 games out of first place in the AL East and 2.5 games out of the second wild card spot, with no other team currently in front of them. However, nearly the rest of the American League is in a similar situation, with only a total of four teams being more than 5 games behind the Twins. Even though the standings could look very different by the time the trade deadline arrives, the Orioles have recently stated (again) that they will be buying at the deadline.

As the title suggests, this article will focus on the idea that acquiring Ben Revere from the Phillies would help the Orioles. Admittedly, the post would have probably been more appropriate last week, prior to Baltimore getting swept by the Yankees. To have a more realistic chance at making a run at the playoffs, the Orioles may be better suited to make a run at more of a difference maker such as Justin Upton (and/or Wil Myers) as Jon suggested Monday (especially in the aftermath of Toronto's acquisition of Troy Tulowitzki). So while Revere may not be one of the sexiest options for a corner outfield acquisition (Matt went over all the sexy and not so sexy options last week), I still think he could help improve the team both this year and beyond, which is important if Baltimore has any plans to be competitive in the near future (considering their shallow farm system and impending free agent exodus).

Ben Revere may be playing for someone else next week

When one thinks of Ben Revere, productive corner outfielder most likely isn’t the first thing that comes to mind. After all, corner outfield positions are associated with power hitting…power hitters who don’t have to play defense all that well to justify a spot in the lineup. By contrast, Revere is a 27-year-old outfielder listed at 5’9” and 170 lbs on the Phillies website (so consider him slightly less in both regards) who has a reputation of being a slap-hitting speedster with a weak outfield arm. That reputation is justifiable, as Revere has a career ISO of .053 and 3 home runs in over 2,400 plate appearances. However, if one only looks at the paltry power numbers, the bigger picture is being missed. That bigger picture is that Ben Revere is a league average hitter in 2015 who has contributed 1.9 wins above replacement in approximately half a year’s worth of plate appearances.

Revere is currently sporting a triple slash line of .302/.340/.381, which is good for a 101 wRC+, which would put him behind only Adam Jones and Nolan Reimold among Orioles outfielders, although Reimold has only accumulated 67 PAs (I’m considering Chris Davis a first baseman here). Yes, his offensive production is largely dependent on batting average, which makes his acquisition a little riskier, but he’s been very consistent over the last 3 years, as the table shows.

Revere isn’t necessarily another platoon player either, something of which the Orioles have plenty. While he’s had trouble against left-handers in 2015 (58 wRC+ in 92 PAs), he’s actually hit better against them than he has against right-handers over the course of his career (90 wRC+ against LHP in 715 PAs versus 85 wRC+ against RHP in 1,687 PAs). This could be a result of batted ball luck, but it illustrates that he’s not completely helpless against them.

If there is a significant difference in his offensive game this year, it’s his increased line drive rate (5% higher than career levels), which is likely driving his power “spike.” That increase in line drives has come at the expense of ground balls, but as long as those line drives don’t start turning into fly balls (the equivalent of baseball death for a player with Revere’s skill set), he should continue to produce at the plate as long as he retains his plus plus speed, which at 27 years old, should not be an issue over the next few years barring injury.

Speaking of Revere’s speed, he’s got plenty as he’s stolen 169 bases in 209 attempts over his career, good for an 80.8% success rate. He’s been better than that in 2014 and 2015 stealing 73 bases while being successful nearly 85% of the time. He’s consistently been one of the best baserunners in the game (Fangraphs has him worth 26.3 Baserunning Runs above average throughout his career) and would add a different element to an Orioles lineup that relies heavily on the home run. The Orioles are currently ranked 21st in Baserunning Runs, with 4.1 runs below average.

Revere’s speed benefits him on defense as well as it helps cover up some of the adventurous routes he takes at times to run down fly balls. Overall, he grades out as a plus defender in the corners according to UZR/150 (11.3 runs above average in LF and 18.7 in RF) and an average defender in CF in admittedly a much larger sample size 0.7 runs above average). Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) is more pessimistic, having him as a slightly below average left fielder (-2 DRS in 524.1 innings), terrible in center field (-24 DRS in 3,308.1 innings), and above average in right field (11 DRS in 854 innings). Luckily with Adam Jones already on the roster, Revere would only need to play center in an emergency. He’s best suited for left field, as his weak arm – which has been worth 8.1 runs below average – is his biggest liability in the field.

The acquisition of Revere should be at least a 0.5 win upgrade over what the Orioles currently have on their roster. Zips projects Revere to be worth 0.7 wins the rest of season, while it projects Travis Snider, Chris Parmelee, and David Lough at 0.2 wins each (Nolan Reimold projects to be worth 0.1 wins for the remainder of 2015). He’s also under team control through 2017, which should be attractive to an Orioles team that does not have any position players in the farm system ready to contribute anytime soon. He’s not necessarily cheap though, as he is making $4.1 million in 2015 during his second round of arbitration (the Orioles would be on the hook for approximately $1.64 million in 2015). As a former super two player, he’ll get more expensive during his 3rd and 4th years of arbitration, but the Orioles will also have the opportunity to non-tender him if they don’t expect his production to match his escalating price.

So what would it take for the Phillies to part with Revere? I'm not exactly sure how each team would value these players, but I would think Parker Bridwell and a low minors lottery ticket would at least get the conversation started. Bridwell was the Orioles’ 17th best prospect heading into the 2015 season according to MLB.com. He’s a 23-year-old right-hander with good stuff and command issues, so there’s a chance he ends up in the bullpen. He’s currently pitching in Double-AA Bowie and has a 3.99 ERA, striking out 93 and walking 38 in 97 IP. Ultimately, acquiring an average, if unspectacular outfielder in Revere could help the team in 2015 and beyond (without necessarily being tied to him long term) at a potentially reasonable price. Don’t get me wrong, it wouldn’t be the most exciting trade, but it improves the Orioles now without mortgaging the future.

What Does Travis Snider Bring to the Orioles?

Editor's note: I recently answered some questions for a 2015 team preview of the Orioles for Razzball. It doesn't include anything specific about Travis Snider, and we are still about two months away from opening day, but you might find it interesting. Look out for at least one or two more team previews as we get closer to the beginning of the season. Thanks.

It would an oversimplification to think the Orioles chose just Travis Snider over Nick Markakis. Really, the O's chose Snider, Steve Pearce, and financial flexibility over Markakis. Snider won't be filling the Markakis role. He won't be playing every game in right field, but he will be filling in more at designated hitter and if needed could see some innings in left field. But Snider will play a lot in right field, he is left handed, and he is on the Orioles, so some will inevitably compare him to Markakis, particularly those angered by Markakis's departure.

Snider is not Markakis. They are both former first-round draft picks -- Markakis (7th) in 2003; Snider in 2006 (14th) -- but each player has taken a much different career path. Clearly, Snider does not come close to Markakis's career accomplishments. One quick way to view that would be to observe their career wins above replacement totals:

Nick Markakis: 25.8 bWAR, 22.6 fWAR
Travis Snider: 4.2 bWAR, 2.7 fWAR

Markakis was arguably the Orioles' best player for about a decade (Adam Jones is right there, and did so with less playing time). Add in that Markakis was a homegrown talent -- something that's been rare for the Orioles during a period of truly awful baseball (basically 1998-2011) -- and it's not difficult to understand why so many fans latched on to Markakis and are having trouble letting him go.

Markakis has been a popular topic on Camden Depot; both his achievements and shortcomings have been analyzed frequently. So it has been noted often enough that Markakis was not a superstar. And it's not a dig to realize that the 2008 version of Markakis would have been extremely tough to replace, while the 2014 version is not.

So why is Snider the better fit for the Orioles? He's four years younger, and he possesses something that Markakis doesn't: some upside. Markakis hasn't been a great player for a while, and even though he's only 31, he does seem to have more wear on him than most. He has played in at least 155 games in every season but two: in 2006 (147), his rookie season; and in 2012 (104), when he missed part of the season after breaking his wrist and then missed the rest of the season after a CC Sabathia fastball broke his left thumb in September. Of course it's not a bad thing to be a durable, everyday player, but there's at least some health concern, as Markakis's recent neck surgery apparently worried the O's enough to back off a longer-term deal. The Orioles aren't always right about these things, but they are right often enough.

It's tough to ignore Snider's early career struggles. He showed a good amount of promise in his rookie season, posting a .301/.338/.466 (110 wRC+) line in a limited sample. The next couple seasons he hovered around a wRC+ of 100 while struggling to carve out consistent playing time. His production then fell off a cliff in 2011 (63 wRC+ in 202 plate appearances), and the Blue Jays traded him in the summer of 2012 to the Pirates for Brad Lincoln, another underwhelming 2006 first-round draft pick.

For the rest of 2012, Snider wasn't good (84 wRC+). And he certainly wasn't good in 2013 (71 wRC+) while playing through a nagging left foot injury. Snider eventually had surgery in the offseason to fix the issue. But in 2014, Snider was healthy and posted a career best 121 wRC+ while setting career highs in games (140) and plate appearances (359). Snider wasn't fortunate on balls in play (.298 BABIP), though he did have a modest uptick in his HR/FB rate (16.5% vs. career 13.3%). He also cut down on his strikeouts (18.7%) -- he never struck out less than 24.8% of the time in any other season -- walked more than he had in any season since 2009, and chased fewer pitches outside the zone than in any other season while making contact on 81.3% of his pitches (previous high of 79.1%). Still, one season of improved offensive performance shouldn't convince anyone that Snider is going to be fantastic or that he'll definitely hit a ton of home runs in a ballpark more suited to left-handed power than PNC Park.

Steamer projects Markakis to finish with a 101 wRC+ in 2015. It projects Snider to have a 116 wRC+ in 101 plate appearances. Certainly Snider is going to play much more than that, but it wouldn't be surprising if he outperformed Markakis. Much of Markakis's career is behind him, almost certainly including his best work. That might not be the case for Snider. And while Markakis does possess some on-base skills (Snider is close or maybe a little worse in that department), he doesn't currently have the same level of power that Snider does.

Even including his up-and-down, disappointing earlier seasons, Snider still has a greater career isolated power (.160) than Markakis (.145). He has fared better in hitting for power against all three types of pitches -- hard, breaking, and offspeed:

Player	Hard ISO	Breaking ISO	Offspeed ISO
Markakis	.129	.157	.139
Snider	.163	.160	.145

The breaking and offspeed categories are close, but Snider is better at hammering fastballs. And in 2014, Snider's ISO was double Markakis's when facing hard pitches (.189 vs. .095). He was also better against breaking pitches, though he did struggle against offspeed (Markakis wasn't great in this area, either).

Snider, who as noted above was much better plate discipline wise in 2014, did a better job of making pitchers pay when they threw him pitches in the middle of the plate or inside. Here's his ISO zone profile in 2014:

... vs. his career ISO zone profile:

He also swung and missed less on pitches in the zone, which is key since he was already chasing fewer pitches outside of it. Pitchers want to attack Snider away (and down), so swinging and missing at fewer of those pitches obviously helped.

Maybe you view what Snider accomplished last season as a fluke. It might be. But it may also be an example of a hitter refining his approach at the plate. Not every player improves or matures at the same rate.

Markakis's body of work is much larger, so there's more to analyze and predict what he will do. That's not the case for Snider, who has the upside advantage or unknown variable, whatever you want to call it. Mike Petriello of FanGraphs even referred to Snider as a "lottery ticket." That seems more than fair.

Shifting gears quickly to discuss defense, Markakis has won two Gold Gloves. Snider hasn't won any. But, as a reminder, Gold Gloves aren't a great indicator of outstanding defensive performance. I've always thought of Markakis as a decent to good defender who has a strong, accurate arm and makes most of the routine plays, but lacks range. But I'm not a scout. The advanced metrics differ on how good Markakis is in right field:

UZR: -2.5 (UZR/150: -0.3)
DRS: +6

While Markakis has mostly played right field, Snider has split his time between left and right field. Oddly enough, he's been much better in left field, according to the metrics:

LF UZR: 5.8 (UZR/150: 5.3)
RF UZR: -5.9 (UZR/150: -5.5)
LF DRS:  +16
RF DRS: -4

Maybe Snider is more comfortable in left field. Or maybe it doesn't mean a whole lot, since Snider still hasn't played a ton of innings overall in his career. He still seems like, at worst, an average outfielder. Maybe he's a little worse than Markakis, but either way, it's close.

Snider will make $2.1 million in 2015, and he has one arbitration-eligible year remaining after that. So he'll most likely see another modest raise in 2016. So the O's could end up paying, for example, around $5 or $6 million for Snider's age 27 and 28 seasons. Meanwhile, the Braves are locked in to a four-year, $44 million deal with Markakis for his age 31-34 seasons. Maybe Markakis will end up proving many analysts and fans wrong who think the Braves unnecessarily overpaid for his services. But the O's could end up getting similar production, both offensively and defensively, from Snider for a couple seasons at a fraction of the cost. Snider has not yet demonstrated that he can be a full-time player, and maybe he can't. But the O's will already have decisions to make beyond this season with so many impending free agents (including outfielders Steve Pearce and Alejandro De Aza). So Snider will get plenty of opportunities.

Not only did the O's minimize risk by not matching or exceeding Atlanta's offer for Markakis, but they also picked up a seemingly improving player with power who will be able to fill multiple roles. It's all right to be sad that Markakis is gone but to also realize that a Pearce/Snider combination in right field could and probably should outperform Markakis.

Photo via Keith Allison

Orioles Acquire Travis Snider, Gain Additional Depth

Travis Snider (photo via Tom Hagerty)

After failing to bring back Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz, the Orioles have been in the market for another outfielder for much of the offseason.  While they missed out on the free agents (which left us a little confused), they finally landed their man by acquiring outfielder Travis Snider from the Pirates for minor league pitcher Stephen Tarpley and a "player to be named later."  Let’s take a quick look at Baltimore’s new outfielder and also see what they had to give up to get him.

What the Orioles Received

Travis Snider was the 14^th overall pick in the 2006 draft.  As a top prospect, Snider absolutely crushed the ball during his time in the minors, hitting a combined .309/.383/.525  in 2200 plate appearances across all levels.  That success in the minors never really carried over to the majors though, as he basically resembled a typical quad-A player (someone too good for AAA, but not good enough for the majors).  Here’s what Snider has been able to do over the course of his major league career.

Year	Age	PA	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
2008	20	80	2	5	23	.301	.338	.466	114
2009	21	276	9	29	78	.241	.328	.419	95
2010	22	319	14	21	79	.255	.304	.463	105
2011	23	202	3	11	56	.225	.269	.348	65
2012	24	185	4	17	48	.250	.319	.378	92
2013	25	285	5	24	75	.215	.281	.333	74
2014	26	359	13	34	67	.264	.338	.438	118
7 Yrs		1706	50	141	426	.246	.310	.406	95

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/28/2015.

The overall numbers aren’t too encouraging, but the good news is that 2014 was his best season by far, as he produced career marks in almost every offensive category. So which version of Travis Snider will the Orioles get in 2015?  On one hand, it’s hard to ignore the rather sizable sample of Snider’s struggles prior to last year.  On the other, Snider just had a much better season at the plate than the recently departed Nick Markakis (albeit in less PA’s) and is a former top prospect that will only turn 27 in the next week. After several years of being one of the best outfielders in baseball, it’s easy to forget that Alex Gordon struggled on offense until his age 27 season.  I’m not saying Snider will have an Alex Gordon type breakout, but some guys take a little bit longer to figure it out.

Having said that, Snider may not even be an everyday player.  Back in December, Matt looked at a rumored deal that would have sent Brian Matusz to the Pirates in exchange for Snider and took a quick look at Snider’s possible platoon issues.  While his overall splits don’t scream “platoon player”, there are legitimate reasons to believe Snider is not a good option against left-handers, including a strikeout rate over 33% and the fact that he hasn’t been given much of an opportunity to even face left-handed pitching (277 career PA’s).

Earlier in the offseason, we here at Camden Depot stated that an outfield consisting of Jones/Pearce/De Aza/Lough actually wouldn’t be much worse than 2014’s group.  However, it’s not unreasonable to think that this group (minus Jones) has a higher chance to disappoint (especially offensively) than not, so picking up Snider as another outfield option was a nice move by the front office to hedge their bets.  Additionally, Snider doesn’t cost much (he signed for $2.1 million in 2014) and is under team control next year as well.  It’s a good pickup, especially when considering that both De Aza and Pearce will be free agents after the season.

What the Orioles Gave Up

In order to get Snider, the Orioles gave up left-handed pitcher Stephen Tarpley and a “player to be named later”.  Tarpley was the Orioles 3^rd round pick in the 2013 draft out of Scottsdale Community College.  He spent all last season pitching in Aberdeen (Short Season A-Ball), sporting a 3.66 ERA over 66.1 innings, while striking out 60 and walking 24.

This offseason, Tarpley was rated by Baseball Prospectus as the Orioles 9th best prospect (subscription required and recommended).  Essentially, Tarpley shows good stuff on the mound, but he lacks polish on his command and his secondary pitches.  BP’s prospect team sees him as having the ceiling of a number 3 or 4 starter, but a more realistic role of a 6^th inning reliever/long man in the bullpen.  So while he does have a higher ceiling than some of the pitchers ahead of him on that list (pitchers not named Bundy or Harvey), he has a way to go to reach that ceiling.

The other player going to the Pirates in this deal is currently unknown, and according to Roch Kubatko of MASN, that player likely won’t be known until spring training.  However, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reported that left-hander Steven Brault could be the PTBNL.  Brault was drafted in the 11^th round of the 2013 draft and spent the 2014 season between Low-A Delmarva and High-A Frederick.  I couldn’t find much else on him, so I asked Tucker Blair of Baseball Prospectus for some insight:

“Steven Brault is an athletic-framed lefty that was signed out of Regis University, which has never seen a player make the majors. I've seen Brault quite a few times while he was with Aberdeen, Delmarva, and Frederick. He generally sits 90-92 with average present command, but his fastball has some sink and run on it. He also has a SL, CB and CH, with the first two fringy. The CH has some deception and fade to it, and is largely the reason his numbers have been so productive throughout his first two seasons. He hides the pitch well out of his hand. Brault has enjoyed success so far in pro ball due to his loose arm and that deception, but I lean more towards him being a role 4 relief type, as I haven't seen the consistency in his mechanics and the stuff leans mostly towards the average side. There isn't a ton of room for mistakes, which I think will be exploited some at the higher levels. For now, he's an intriguing option as a backend starter type.”

Conclusion

Overall this trade appears to be a good one for both teams to make.  Travis Snider gives the Orioles the outfielder they’ve been searching for all offseason long, at minimal cost in terms of dollars and prospects.  As for Pittsburgh, they end up with one intriguing pitching prospect (possibly two) for a player who would have struggled to find at-bats next season.  Baltimore fans may have preferred the Brian Matusz for Snider swap that was discussed earlier, but it’s unlikely that Baltimore will miss Tarpley (or Brault, if he is the PTBNL). Tarpley may have the ceiling of a number 3 or 4 starter, but he’ll begin the 2015 season as a 22 year old having yet to reach Low-A.  In other words, it’s probably going to take a while for him to get there, if he ever does.

As a team planning on contending in 2015, Travis Snider is worth much more to the Orioles than either of the minor league players they gave up for him. Snider gives the Orioles another solid option in the outfield or off the bench.  And if they’re lucky, there’s even a chance he’s more than just a solid option.  When this deal was announced, our own Matt Kremnitzer asked an interesting question that's important to remember when considering this trade.

So if you had to pick the Markakis deal or the Snider trade, what would you take? I think it's Snider in a landslide.
— Matt Kremnitzer (@mattkremnitzer) January 28, 2015

If you’re being honest with yourself, I bet you probably agree with him.